s.vermeulen - brussels briefing - 2012-09-27
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During the latest Brussels Briefing, organised by The Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA) in September, Sonja Vermeulen held a presentation on Smallholder agriculture under climate change: Challenges and outlook.TRANSCRIPT
Climate change, agriculture and food security: proven approaches and new investments, Policy Briefing 29, Brussels, 27 September 2012
Smallholder agriculture under climate change: challenges and outlook
Sonja Vermeulen, Head of Research CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change,
Agriculture and Food Security
Impacts
4 degrees by 2100 is likely
To 2090, taking 14 climate models Four degree rise
Thornton et al. 2010
>20% loss 5-‐20% loss No change 5-‐20% gain >20% gain
Length of growing period (%)
Impacts 1: Long-term trends in temperature and rainfall
Impacts 2: Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events
Pulwaty 2010
2050 compared with 2005 in A1B scenario Cheung et al 2010
Impacts 3: Major transitions in ecosystems and livelihoods
By 2050, severe childhood stunting up by 23% in central Africa and 62% in South Asia (uses IFPRI IMPACT model + socio-economic models)
Lloyd et al. 2011 Environmental Health PerspecEves
Impacts 4: Poorest at risk
Becoming “climate smart”
Food security
Adaptation Ecological footprint
“Climate-smart agriculture” means building resilience, balancing trade-offs, suiting the context
0
5
10
15
20
25
US Malawi
GHG CO2-eq tonne per capita
Adaptation
Adaptive capacity
Technology
Knowledge & skills Governance
& institutions
Income & assets
Access to
information
Infrastructure
Social capital
Key adaptation strategies Ø Incremental adaptation to progressive
climate change • Closing yield gaps (i.e. sustainable intensification) • Raising the bar – technologies & policies for 2030s Ø Climate risk management • Technologies (e.g. flood control) • Institutions (e.g. index-based insurance) • Climate information systems (e.g. seasonal forecasts) Ø Transformative adaptation • Changing production systems • Changing livelihood portfolios
• Example: Climate analogue tool
• Identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality
• These sites are used for cross-site farmer visits, & participatory crop & livestock trials
Adapting to long-term climate trends
Example: Climate services • Met services produce
forecast information downscaled in space & time
• Farmers & met services work together to ensure forecasts meet local needs
Adapting to greater
climate variability
• Relocation of growing areas & processing facilities
• Agricultural diversification, or shifts • Livelihood diversification, or shifts • Migration
To transformational adaptation?
Summary points
Climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture:
• Are more complex than often assumed – and happening faster than often assumed
• Are unevenly distributed geographically • Depend on household and national capacities and
contexts as well as on exposure to climate threats • Pose major threats to nutrition, welfare, incomes and
health among poorer households
Responding with climate-smart agriculture:
• Is foremost about development – addressing smallholder concerns, building assets & resilience
• Adds new actions on climate to sustainable development
• Deals with trade-offs, not only “win-win-wins” • Must be “landscape-smart” too • Will not solve future food security on its own (need
actions on distribution, diets, waste)
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