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LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 1
Swing Riding Polls – Wave Two
LEADNOW SEPTEMBER 22, 2015
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 2 2
METHODOLOGY
Environics was commissioned by LeadNow to conduct telephone surveys of approximately 500 to 600 eligible voters in each of 31 federal ridings across Canada between September 18 and 21, 2015. The research was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology and the findings were weighted by age and gender to reflect the demographic makeup of the electorate. A total of 18,758 eligible voters were surveyed. Survey of this magnitude will yield aggregate results which can be considered accurate to within plus or minus 0.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The sample size and margin of error for each individual riding are described on the following pages. The survey explored vote intention in the upcoming federal election. In each riding, the names of nominated local candidates were read. Questions were also posed on whether respondents felt they were voting to re-elect or defeat the Conservative government and those supporting opposition party candidates were asked about their willingness to switch their vote to the candidate with the best chance of defeating the Conservatives.
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Methodology Riding Field dates Sample size Margin of error
Fredericton Sept. 18-‐19 580 4.1
Eglinton-‐Lawrence Sept. 18-‐19 565 4.1
Etobicoke-‐Lakeshore Sept. 18-‐19 537 4.2
Kitchener Centre Sept. 19-‐20 672 3.8
London North Centre Sept. 19-‐20 540 4.2
Willowdale Sept. 18-‐20 535 4.2
Elmwood-‐Transcona Sept. 19-‐20 552 4.2
Saskatoon-‐University Sept. 18-‐20 853 3.4
Calgary Centre Sept. 18-‐20 531 4.3
Port Moody-‐Coquitlam Sept. 19-‐20 529 4.3
Vancouver Granville Sept. 19-‐21 541 4.2
Kanata-‐Carlton Sept. 19-‐20 562 4.1
Nepean Sept. 19-‐20 569 4.1
Orleans Sept. 19-‐20 567 4.1
OSawa West-‐Nepean Sept. 19-‐20 747 3.6
Waterloo Sept. 18-‐20 658 3.8
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Methodology continued
Riding Field dates Sample size Margin of error Winnipeg South Centre Sept. 19-‐20 597 4.0
Kootenay-‐Columbia Sept. 18-‐19 529 4.3
Nanaimo-‐Ladysmith Sept. 19-‐20 699 3.7
North Island-‐Powell River Sept. 18-‐19 556 4.2
Central Nova Sept. 19-‐20 573 4.1
Cumberland-‐Colchester Sept. 19-‐20 617 3.9
PiS Meadows-‐Maple Ridge Sept. 18-‐20 543 4.2
Yukon Sept. 19-‐21 497 4.4
Saint John-‐Rothesay Sept. 19-‐20 623 3.9
Niagara Falls Sept. 19-‐20 557 4.2
Sault Ste. Marie Sept. 19-‐20 632 3.9
BranYord-‐Brant Sept. 19-‐20 622 3.9
Cambridge Sept. 19-‐20 552 4.2
Guelph Sept. 19-‐20 601 4.0
Grey Bruce-‐Owen Sound Sept. 21 1,022 3.1
Total Sept 18 -‐ 21 18,758 0.7
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 5
Six in ten are voting to defeat the Harper Conservatives and elect a different government
Q. In this election, would you say you are voting to re-elect Stephen Harper and the Conservatives, or are you voting to defeat the Harper Conservatives and elect a different government?
Voting to re-elect or defeat Harper Conservatives
18
58 32
11
Voting to defeat Harper Voting to re-elect Harper dk
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 6
Six in ten opposition voters are willing to vote for candidate with best chance of beating Conservatives according to local polling
Q. If local polling showed that another candidate had the best chance of defeating the Conservative candidate in your riding, would you be willing to change your vote in order to defeat the Conservative, or would you stick with your current vote regardless?
Willing to change vote vs. sticking with first choice
18
60%
39%
61%
38%
61%
38%
49% 50%
Willing to change vote to defeat Conservative candidate Would not change vote based on local polling
Total NDP supporters Liberal supporters Green supporters
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 7
Mira Oreck of the NDP leads by 6 points in Vancouver Granville
36
36
24
29
30
35
30
24
30
6
10
9
Decided voters - Sept
Decided voters - Aug
Election 2011 results
NDP/Oreck CPC/Broshko Liberal/Wilson-Raybould Green/Barkusky
2015 Vancouver Granville vote intention
10
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 8
Fin Donnelly of the NDP currently leads by 7 points in Port Moody-Coquitlam
41
54
40
34
27
46
19
14
9
7
5
4
Decided voters - Sept
Decided voters - Aug
Election 2011 results
NDP/Donnelly CPC/Laidler Liberal/Adcock Green/Madsen
2015 Port Moody-Coquitlam vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 9
Bob D’Eith of the NDP leads by 6 points in Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge
41
35
35
55
19
5
6
5
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/D'Eith CPC/Murray Liberal/Ruimy Green/Tam
September 2015 Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 10
Rachel Blaney of the NDP leads by 14 points in North Island-Powell River
41
42
27
46
18
6
14
5
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/Blaney CPC/Smith Liberal/Schwartzhoff Green/Sayers
September 2015 North Island-Powell River vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 11
Sheila Malcolmson of NDP leads by 10 points in Nanaimo-Ladysmith
34
45
24
40
17
7
24
7
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/Malcolmson CPC/MacDonald Liberal/Tessier Green/Manly
September 2015 Nanaimo-Ladysmith vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 12
Kootenay-Columbia is a dead heat between Stetski NDP and Wilks Conservative
37
39
37
50
15
3
11
6
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/Stetski CPC/Wilks Liberal/Johnston Green/Green
September 2015 Kootenay-Columbia vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
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Liberal Larry Bagnell leads Melissa Atkinson of the NDP by 10 points in Yukon
29
14
27
34
39
33
4
19
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/Atkinson CPC/Leef Liberal/Bagnell Green/De Jong
September 2015 Yukon vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 14
Joan Crockatt of the CPC leads Liberal Kent Hehr by 8 points in Calgary Centre
11
17
4
15
47
44
37
55
39
32
33
19
3
7
26
10
Decided voters - Sept
Decided voters - Aug
By-election 2012 results
Election 2011 Results
NDP/Ratti CPC/Crockatt Liberal/Hehr Green/Boonlert
2015 Calgary Centre vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 15
Saskatoon-University now a dead heat between NDP Clair Card and CPC Brad Trost
37
41
38
37
34
49
22
22
10
4
4
3
Decided voters - Sept
Decided voters - Aug
Election 2011 results
NDP/Card CPC/Trost Liberal/Block Green/Harvey*
2015 Saskatoon-University vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…? * Candidate name added in Sept wave
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 16
Liberal Jim Carr leads Joyce Bateman of the CPC by 7 points in Winnipeg South Centre
23
18
31
41
38
37
8
3
Decided voters - Sept
Election 2011 results
NDP/Henderson CPC/Bateman Liberal/Carr Green/Park
September 2015 Winnipeg South Centre vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 17
Elmwood-Transcona currently a tight race between Blaikie NDP and Toet CPC
37
39
45
39
30
47
20
25
5
4
6
3
Decided voters - Sept
Decided voters - Aug
Election 2011 results
NDP/Blaikie CPC/Toet Liberal/Richardson-Lipon Green/Parke*
2015 Elmwood-Transcona vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…? * Candidate name added in Sept wave
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 18
Eglinton-Lawrence continues to show a tight race between Marco Mendicino and Joe Oliver
24
25
12
35
36
47
37
35
38
4
4
3
Decided voters - Sept
Decided voters - Aug
Election 2011 results
NDP/Thomson CPC/Oliver Liberal/Mendicino Green
2015 Eglinton-Lawrence vote intention
4
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 19
Etobicoke Lakeshore currently showing a close Liberal/CPC race
19
28
20
38
31
40
40
36
35
3
5
4
Decided voters - Sept
Decided voters - Aug
Election 2011 results
NDP/Trotter CPC/Trottier Liberal/Maloney Green/Salewsy
2015 Etobicoke Lakeshore vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 20
It’s still a three-way race in Kitchener Centre
30
33
22
31
29
40
33
31
32
7
7
5
Decided voters - Sept
Decided voters - Aug
Election 2011 results
NDP/Cadell CPC/Woodworth Liberal/Saini Green/Wendler
2015 Kitchener Centre vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 21
London North Centre is currently a dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives
25
27
24
35
32
37
35
34
34
5
6
4
Decided voters - Sept
Decided voters - Aug
Election 2011 results
NDP/Gutierrez-Sanin CPC/Truppe Liberal/Gragiskatos Green/Dyck
2015 London North Centre vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 22
Liberal Ali Ehsassi has a 9 point lead in Willowdale
15
26
19
36
32
41
45
37
39
5
5
1
Decided voters - Sept
Decided voters - Aug
Election 2011 results
NDP/Tabasinejad CPC/Leung Liberal/Ehsassi Green/Arruda*
2015 Willowdale vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…? * Candidate name added in Sept wave
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 23
Conservative Walter Pamic leads Liberals by 7 points in Kanata-Carleton
13
15
44
54
37
26
5
5
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/Hansen CPC/Pamic Liberal/McCrimmon Green/West
September 2015 Kanata-Carleton vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 24
Andy Wang of the CPC leads Liberal Chandra Arya by 6 points in Nepean
19
18
40
51
34
27
8
4
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/Devine CPC/Wang Liberal/Arya Green/Cooke
September 2015 Nepean vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 25
Andrew Leslie of the Liberals leads the Conservatives by 15 points in Orleans
11
14
36
45
51
38
3
3
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/Tremblay Winfield CPC/Galipeau Liberal/Leslie Green/Morin
September 2015 Orleans vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 26
Anita Vandenbeld of Liberals has a narrow 4 point lead in Ottawa West-Nepean
20
20
35
45
39
31
5
4
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/Rivier CPC/Abdi Liberal/Vandenbeld Green
September 2015 Ottawa West-Nepean vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 27
Liberal Bardish Chagger leads Conservative Peter Braid by 8 points in Waterloo
26
15
31
41
39
38
3
5
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/Freeman CPC/Braid Liberal/Chagger Green/Walsh
September 2015 Waterloo vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 28
Conservative Rob Nicholson has a 15 point lead in Niagara Falls
27
23
42
53
25
19
6
4
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/Ioannoni CPC/Nicholson Liberal/Planche Green/Soos
September 2015 Niagara Falls vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 29
Sault Ste. Marie is a tight three-way race
30
37
31
40
34
20
6
2
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/Morrison CPC/Hayes Liberal/Sheehan Green
September 2015 Sault Ste. Marie vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 30
McColeman CPC has a 9 point lead over Laferriere NDP in Brantford-Brant
30
29
39
48
25
19
6
3
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/LaFerriere CPC/McColeman Liberal/Takacs Green/Brandt
September 2015 Brantford-Brant vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 31
Conservative Gary Goodyear leads the Liberal by 9 points in Cambridge
17
28
43
53
34
15
6
4
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/Stewart CPC/Goodyear Liberal/May Green/Braniff
September 2015 Cambridge vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 32
Lloyd Longfield of the Liberals has a 20-point lead over Gloria Kovach of the CPC in Guelph
18
17
25
33
45
43
12
6
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/Seagram CPC/Kovach Liberal/Longfield Green/Miller
September 2015 Guelph vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 33
Conservative Larry Miller has a 14 point lead in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
20
18
43
56
29
16
9
10
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/McLaren CPC/Miller Liberal/Love Green/Albinati
September 2015 Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 34
Liberal Matt DeCourcey continues to hold a 5-point lead in Fredericton
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
20
26
24
32
29
47
37
34
24
10
12
4
Decided voters - Sept
Decided voters - Aug
Election 2011 results
NDP/Scott-Levesque CPC/Ashfield Liberal/Decourcey Green/Babineau
2015 Fredericton vote intention
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 35
Liberal Sean Fraser has a 27-point lead over Conservative Fred De Lorey in Central Nova
20
27
23
55
50
14
7
4
Decided voters
Election 2011 results
NDP/Landry CPC/De Lorey Liberal/Fraser Green/Hachey
September 2015 Central Nova vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 36
Liberal Bill Casey leads by 22 points in Cumberland-Colchester
7
22
32
53
54
18
6
5
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/Robinson CPC/Armstrong Liberal/Casey Green/Blanch
September 2015 Cumberland-Colchester vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 37
Conservative Weston leads Liberal Long by 5 points in Saint John-Rothesay
25
31
38
50
33
16
4
3
Decided voters - Sept.
Election 2011 results
NDP/Griffin CPC/Weston Liberal/Long Green/Murphy
September 2015 Saint John-Rothesay vote intention
Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?
LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 38
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION OR QUESTIONS CONTACT:
38
Brenda Sharpe SENIOR RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, PUBLIC AFFAIRS
Tel: 613-230-5089 x 228 Email: [email protected]