sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

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of TRUST in a 03.12.11 Social Age The Crisis

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POV on the consequences of social opinions circulating on the web whose unreliability cannot be determined, along with the opportunity for marketers to take leadership

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Page 1: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

of TRUST in a

03.12.11

Social Age

The Crisis

Page 2: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

It is safe?

Page 3: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

SOCIAL MEDIA CONTINUES ITS METEORIC RISE

248 MMUNIQUE MONTHLY

VISITORS TO TOP 8 SNS SITES

61%INTERNET USERS

WITH AN SNS PROFILE

23%ALL INTERNET TIME

SPENT ON SNS

41%YAG

48%YAG

50%YAG

Source: Nielsen NetView - June 2009-June 2010

Page 4: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

CONSUMER DECISION MAKING IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOCIAL

I LIKE IT

“Do I look good? I really love this dress. I don’t think pictures do it justice.”

84%LIKE IT

I HATE IT

Page 5: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

TRUST IN THE PEOPLE WE KNOW HAS ERODED

CREDIBILITY OF INFORMATION SOURCES ABOUT COMPANIES

TV NEWS

RADIO NEWS

NEWSPAPERS

FRIENDS/PEERS

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

2008 2010

Source: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2010

Page 6: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

60% OF PEOPLE REPORT NEEDING TO HEAR SOMETHING ABOUT A SPECIFIC COMPANY 3-5X TO BELIEVE IT IS TRUE

AND WE REQUIRE MORE PROOF

Source: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2010

Page 7: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

TRUST AND SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS ONLINE

MORE OPINIONS AND TRUST LESS

MORE OPINIONS AND TRUST MORE 40%18%

UNSURE ABOUT THE NUMBER OF OPINIONS BUT IT’S GETTING HARDER TO TELL

41%

Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

Page 8: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

THREE POSSIBILITIES

ROCK THE VOTE!TWEET 1, 2 OR 3 TO #quest4trust NOW

1 NOT A PROBLEM:• TRUST IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS IT USED TO BE

2 MAYBE A PROBLEM

3 YES, IT’S A PROBLEM:• TRUST HAS ERODED - QUESTION IS WHY & WHAT TO

DO

• IT’S TOO EARLY TO TELL

Page 9: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

WHAT IS TRUST?CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE IN RELATIONTO SOMETHING OF VALUE

Page 10: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

WHY DOES TRUST EXIST?

TO COMMUNE.TO LIVE.TO PROTECT WHAT ’S VALUABLE.

Page 11: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

RISK SHAPES TRUST

SELF-ACTUALIZATION:

achieving one’s full potential including creative activities

ESTEEM NEEDS:prestige and feeling of accomplishment

BELONGINGNESS AND LOVE NEEDS:intimate relationships, friends

SAFETY NEEDS:security, safety

PHYSIOLOGICAL NEEDS:food, water, warmth, rest

SELF-FULFILLMENT NEEDS

PSYCHOLOGICAL NEEDS

BASIC NEEDS

Source: A Theory of Human Motivation, 1943 - A. Maslow

Page 12: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

THE MOB RULES

Page 13: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

TRUST IS AN AGGREGATE

COMPANY CONSUMER

EXPECTATIONSPRODUCTPLACESERVICEPRICEPROMOTION

CONNECTIONBRAND

PRADVERTISINGFRIENDSSOCIAL MEDIA

EMOTIONALRATIONAL

PSYCHOLOGICALPHYSICAL

REPUTATION BELIEFS

ASSOCIATIONSEXPERIENCESHOPPINGCONSUMPTION

Page 14: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

HOW TRUST WORKSOWNERSHIP /EXPERIENCEEXPECTATION

TRUST

PUT IN$$$

PHYSICALPSYCHIC

GET OUTRATIONALEMOTIONA

L

Page 15: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

IT FRAMES THE VALUE PROPOSITION

BENEFITSCOSTS VALUE = VS.

PUT IN GET OUT

TRUST

Page 16: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age
Page 17: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

‘FUTURE PROOF’ IS A TRUST PLAY

BENEFITSCOSTS VALUE = VS.

PUT IN GET OUT

TRUST

Page 18: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age
Page 19: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age
Page 20: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

TRUST ISFEELING GOOD.

Page 21: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

AN ECONOMIC GALE OF DARWINIAN PROPORTIONS

ECONOMIC RISK EVER-PRESENT DESPITE BEST EFFORTS TO MANAGE IT.STANDING ON GUARD.

ERA OF READINESS

RISK THOUGHT TO BE MANAGEABLE WITH HIGH-TECH MACRO-ECONOMIC TOOLS.INDULGING RISK

ERA OF INDULGENCE

RISK ABRUPTLY RETURNS UNEXPECTEDLY CREATING UNCERTAINTY,REASSESSING EXTERNALITIES

ERA OF CONSEQUENCES

WW II

ENDS

MID 1980s 2008

Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010

Page 22: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

“The new consumer psychology on the rise around the world is one of networks and

prioritization, of explicitly pricing in consequences and of giving more than lip

service to being resourceful and and vigilant to downside risks This is the global

zeitgeist now aborning.”

WELCOME TO THE ERA OF CONSEQUENCES

Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010

Page 23: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

OTHER MACRO FORCES ADD TO THE ‘CONSEQUENCE’

UNDERCURRENT •ECOLI IN FOOD SUPPLY•TOXIC DOG FOOD•LED PAINT IN TOYS•OBESITY

CONSUMPTION•LAID OFF OR WORK

SCALED BACK•HOMES WORTH LESS

THAN DEBT•RETIREMENT FUNDS

DECIMATED

ECONOMIC

•SEVERE WEATHER AND DAMAGE

•BIRD FLU, SWINE FLU•GLOBAL WARMING•9/11

ENVIRONMENT•MORTGAGE COLLAPSE•INVESTMENT MELTDOWN•AUTO INDUSTRY

BAILOUTS

INSTITUTIONS

Page 24: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

EFFECTS ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

The decision calculus of consumer choice will be different. The process of arriving at decisions will be different, even when the outcomes are the same.

Consumers are redefining what value means to them.

Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010

Page 25: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

PUT IN

HAS EVOLVED THE VALUE PROPOSITION

BENEFITSCOSTS VALUE = VS.

GET OUT

TRUST

Page 26: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

HAS EVOLVED THE VALUE PROPOSITION

INGREDIENTSPROCESSINGFOOTPRINT

HOW IT’S MADE

BENEFITSCOSTS VALUE = VS.

GET OUT

TRUST

TAKENAWAY

PUT IN

Page 27: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age
Page 28: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS A CHARACTER ISSUE

Page 29: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

SKEWED CONTRIBUTIONS

NEGATIVE POSITIVE

NEUTRAL

MOT

IVAT

ION

/ VOL

UME

OF C

OMM

ENTS

SENTIMENT CHARACTER

Page 30: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

OPAQUE INTEGRITY

NEGATIVE POSITIVE

SENTIMENT CHARACTER

NEUTRAL

MOT

IVAT

ION

/ VOL

UME

OF C

OMM

ENTS

Page 31: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

TALK IS

CHEAP

Page 32: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

REFERRAL MODERATED BY REPUTATIONAL RISK

Page 33: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC

AGGREGATE CONSENSUS

SOURCE FAMILIARITY

EXPERTISEINDEPENDENCE

OPINION ORIGIN

Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

Page 34: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

AGGREGATE CONSENSUS

SOURCE FAMILIARITY

EXPERTISEINDEPENDENCE

OPINION ORIGIN

SOMEONE YOU KNOW?

SOMEONE YOU DON’T KNOW

VS

TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC

Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

Page 35: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

AGGREGATE CONSENSUS

SOURCE FAMILIARITY

EXPERTISEINDEPENDENCE

OPINION ORIGIN

SOMEONE YOU KNOW?

SOMEONE YOU DON’T KNOW

VS

TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC

EXPERIENCE?

WHAT SOMEONE HAS SEEN OR

HEARD?

VS

Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

Page 36: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

WHICH RECOMMENDATION DO YOU TRUST MOST WHEN CHOOSING A

HOTEL IN A NEW CITY?

71%CLOSEST FRIENDS OR FAMILY BASED ON WHAT THEY’VE HEARD

29%A HIGH SCHOOL FRIEND ON FACEBOOK YOU HAVEN’T SEEN IN A WHILE, WHO’S STAYED THERE

Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

Page 37: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

SALIENCE IS SHAPED BY A CONTEXT THAT’S UNCLEAR

FAMILIARITY

UNDE

RSTA

NDIN

G EXPERT/AUTHORITY

PEOPLE WHO UNDERSTAND

ME

PEOPLEI LIKE

WHAT LOTSOF PEOPLE

LIKE

PEOPLE LIKE ME

41%IT’S GETTING HARDER TO TELL WHICH OPINIONS ARE RELIABLE AND WHICH ONES AREN’T.

Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

Page 38: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

BRAND BEHAVIOR IN THE AGE OF PRISMATIC DISTORTION

Page 39: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

OLD PARADIGM

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NEW PARADIGM

Page 42: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

BRAND RESIDUE

Page 43: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

CUMULATIVE EFFECT?Trust or Mistrust…

Why not Affinity / Lack Thereof?Resonance / Deafness?

Love / Hate / Indifference?

Trust is the Prime

Page 44: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

WHAT TO DO?

Page 45: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

GEAR UP BRAND COWBOYS(AND EMBRACE THE UNCERTAINTY)

Page 46: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

• BEHAVIOR VS WORDS • DISINTERMEDIATION VS

INTERMEDIATION• USERS VS SPECULATORS

• OVER TIME VS POINT

SPEND LESS ON SUPERBOWL ADS

MORE ON SUPERBAD SUPPORTAND

Page 47: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

BEHAVIOR WORDSVS

Page 48: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

DISINTERMEDIATION

INTERMEDIATIONAND

( ARE THE CROWDS REALLY ALL THAT WISE? )

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TAKE ONE-TO-ONE TO THE NEXT LEVEL(“DIRECT RESPONSE” TO “DIRECT FEEDBACK”)

Page 51: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

WHERE’S THE TWITTER ENTERPRISE DASHBOARD?

Page 52: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

USERS SPECULATORSVS

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LIFETIME CUSTOMER CONVERSATIONS INCREASE LIFETIME CUSTOMER VALUE

OVER TIME POINT IN TIMEVS

Page 54: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

• ONLINE REVIEWS AND BRAND FEEDBACK FIXED IN TIME

‘YOU RECENTLY PURCHASED / USED / VISITED’

• FEEDBACK HAS TO BE DIRECTLY SOLICITED AND INCENTED OVER LIFETIME

OF RELATIONSHIP

‘HOW DO YOU FEEL NOW?’

OWNERSHIP / EXPERIENCE BASED SATISFACTION

Page 55: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

People are finding social media opinion less reliable

Trust depends on a interrelationship of contextual factors which determine content’s value

Marketers have an opportunity to forge a true one-to-one connection to build lasting value and earn trust

Page 56: Sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age

CHEERS!#quest4trust #kmacwithcheese