sxsw 2011 crisis of trust in a social age
DESCRIPTION
POV on the consequences of social opinions circulating on the web whose unreliability cannot be determined, along with the opportunity for marketers to take leadershipTRANSCRIPT
of TRUST in a
03.12.11
Social Age
The Crisis
It is safe?
SOCIAL MEDIA CONTINUES ITS METEORIC RISE
248 MMUNIQUE MONTHLY
VISITORS TO TOP 8 SNS SITES
61%INTERNET USERS
WITH AN SNS PROFILE
23%ALL INTERNET TIME
SPENT ON SNS
41%YAG
48%YAG
50%YAG
Source: Nielsen NetView - June 2009-June 2010
CONSUMER DECISION MAKING IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOCIAL
I LIKE IT
“Do I look good? I really love this dress. I don’t think pictures do it justice.”
84%LIKE IT
I HATE IT
TRUST IN THE PEOPLE WE KNOW HAS ERODED
CREDIBILITY OF INFORMATION SOURCES ABOUT COMPANIES
TV NEWS
RADIO NEWS
NEWSPAPERS
FRIENDS/PEERS
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
2008 2010
Source: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2010
60% OF PEOPLE REPORT NEEDING TO HEAR SOMETHING ABOUT A SPECIFIC COMPANY 3-5X TO BELIEVE IT IS TRUE
AND WE REQUIRE MORE PROOF
Source: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2010
TRUST AND SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS ONLINE
MORE OPINIONS AND TRUST LESS
MORE OPINIONS AND TRUST MORE 40%18%
UNSURE ABOUT THE NUMBER OF OPINIONS BUT IT’S GETTING HARDER TO TELL
41%
Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
THREE POSSIBILITIES
ROCK THE VOTE!TWEET 1, 2 OR 3 TO #quest4trust NOW
1 NOT A PROBLEM:• TRUST IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS IT USED TO BE
2 MAYBE A PROBLEM
3 YES, IT’S A PROBLEM:• TRUST HAS ERODED - QUESTION IS WHY & WHAT TO
DO
• IT’S TOO EARLY TO TELL
WHAT IS TRUST?CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE IN RELATIONTO SOMETHING OF VALUE
WHY DOES TRUST EXIST?
TO COMMUNE.TO LIVE.TO PROTECT WHAT ’S VALUABLE.
RISK SHAPES TRUST
SELF-ACTUALIZATION:
achieving one’s full potential including creative activities
ESTEEM NEEDS:prestige and feeling of accomplishment
BELONGINGNESS AND LOVE NEEDS:intimate relationships, friends
SAFETY NEEDS:security, safety
PHYSIOLOGICAL NEEDS:food, water, warmth, rest
SELF-FULFILLMENT NEEDS
PSYCHOLOGICAL NEEDS
BASIC NEEDS
Source: A Theory of Human Motivation, 1943 - A. Maslow
THE MOB RULES
TRUST IS AN AGGREGATE
COMPANY CONSUMER
EXPECTATIONSPRODUCTPLACESERVICEPRICEPROMOTION
CONNECTIONBRAND
PRADVERTISINGFRIENDSSOCIAL MEDIA
EMOTIONALRATIONAL
PSYCHOLOGICALPHYSICAL
REPUTATION BELIEFS
ASSOCIATIONSEXPERIENCESHOPPINGCONSUMPTION
HOW TRUST WORKSOWNERSHIP /EXPERIENCEEXPECTATION
TRUST
PUT IN$$$
PHYSICALPSYCHIC
GET OUTRATIONALEMOTIONA
L
IT FRAMES THE VALUE PROPOSITION
BENEFITSCOSTS VALUE = VS.
PUT IN GET OUT
TRUST
‘FUTURE PROOF’ IS A TRUST PLAY
BENEFITSCOSTS VALUE = VS.
PUT IN GET OUT
TRUST
TRUST ISFEELING GOOD.
AN ECONOMIC GALE OF DARWINIAN PROPORTIONS
ECONOMIC RISK EVER-PRESENT DESPITE BEST EFFORTS TO MANAGE IT.STANDING ON GUARD.
ERA OF READINESS
RISK THOUGHT TO BE MANAGEABLE WITH HIGH-TECH MACRO-ECONOMIC TOOLS.INDULGING RISK
ERA OF INDULGENCE
RISK ABRUPTLY RETURNS UNEXPECTEDLY CREATING UNCERTAINTY,REASSESSING EXTERNALITIES
ERA OF CONSEQUENCES
WW II
ENDS
MID 1980s 2008
Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010
“The new consumer psychology on the rise around the world is one of networks and
prioritization, of explicitly pricing in consequences and of giving more than lip
service to being resourceful and and vigilant to downside risks This is the global
zeitgeist now aborning.”
WELCOME TO THE ERA OF CONSEQUENCES
Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010
OTHER MACRO FORCES ADD TO THE ‘CONSEQUENCE’
UNDERCURRENT •ECOLI IN FOOD SUPPLY•TOXIC DOG FOOD•LED PAINT IN TOYS•OBESITY
CONSUMPTION•LAID OFF OR WORK
SCALED BACK•HOMES WORTH LESS
THAN DEBT•RETIREMENT FUNDS
DECIMATED
ECONOMIC
•SEVERE WEATHER AND DAMAGE
•BIRD FLU, SWINE FLU•GLOBAL WARMING•9/11
ENVIRONMENT•MORTGAGE COLLAPSE•INVESTMENT MELTDOWN•AUTO INDUSTRY
BAILOUTS
INSTITUTIONS
EFFECTS ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
The decision calculus of consumer choice will be different. The process of arriving at decisions will be different, even when the outcomes are the same.
Consumers are redefining what value means to them.
Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010
PUT IN
HAS EVOLVED THE VALUE PROPOSITION
BENEFITSCOSTS VALUE = VS.
GET OUT
TRUST
HAS EVOLVED THE VALUE PROPOSITION
INGREDIENTSPROCESSINGFOOTPRINT
HOW IT’S MADE
BENEFITSCOSTS VALUE = VS.
GET OUT
TRUST
TAKENAWAY
PUT IN
SOCIAL MEDIA HAS A CHARACTER ISSUE
SKEWED CONTRIBUTIONS
NEGATIVE POSITIVE
NEUTRAL
MOT
IVAT
ION
/ VOL
UME
OF C
OMM
ENTS
SENTIMENT CHARACTER
OPAQUE INTEGRITY
NEGATIVE POSITIVE
SENTIMENT CHARACTER
NEUTRAL
MOT
IVAT
ION
/ VOL
UME
OF C
OMM
ENTS
TALK IS
CHEAP
REFERRAL MODERATED BY REPUTATIONAL RISK
TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC
AGGREGATE CONSENSUS
SOURCE FAMILIARITY
EXPERTISEINDEPENDENCE
OPINION ORIGIN
Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
AGGREGATE CONSENSUS
SOURCE FAMILIARITY
EXPERTISEINDEPENDENCE
OPINION ORIGIN
SOMEONE YOU KNOW?
SOMEONE YOU DON’T KNOW
VS
TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC
Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
AGGREGATE CONSENSUS
SOURCE FAMILIARITY
EXPERTISEINDEPENDENCE
OPINION ORIGIN
SOMEONE YOU KNOW?
SOMEONE YOU DON’T KNOW
VS
TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC
EXPERIENCE?
WHAT SOMEONE HAS SEEN OR
HEARD?
VS
Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
WHICH RECOMMENDATION DO YOU TRUST MOST WHEN CHOOSING A
HOTEL IN A NEW CITY?
71%CLOSEST FRIENDS OR FAMILY BASED ON WHAT THEY’VE HEARD
29%A HIGH SCHOOL FRIEND ON FACEBOOK YOU HAVEN’T SEEN IN A WHILE, WHO’S STAYED THERE
Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
SALIENCE IS SHAPED BY A CONTEXT THAT’S UNCLEAR
FAMILIARITY
UNDE
RSTA
NDIN
G EXPERT/AUTHORITY
PEOPLE WHO UNDERSTAND
ME
PEOPLEI LIKE
WHAT LOTSOF PEOPLE
LIKE
PEOPLE LIKE ME
41%IT’S GETTING HARDER TO TELL WHICH OPINIONS ARE RELIABLE AND WHICH ONES AREN’T.
Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
BRAND BEHAVIOR IN THE AGE OF PRISMATIC DISTORTION
OLD PARADIGM
NEW PARADIGM
BRAND RESIDUE
CUMULATIVE EFFECT?Trust or Mistrust…
Why not Affinity / Lack Thereof?Resonance / Deafness?
Love / Hate / Indifference?
Trust is the Prime
WHAT TO DO?
GEAR UP BRAND COWBOYS(AND EMBRACE THE UNCERTAINTY)
• BEHAVIOR VS WORDS • DISINTERMEDIATION VS
INTERMEDIATION• USERS VS SPECULATORS
• OVER TIME VS POINT
SPEND LESS ON SUPERBOWL ADS
MORE ON SUPERBAD SUPPORTAND
BEHAVIOR WORDSVS
DISINTERMEDIATION
INTERMEDIATIONAND
( ARE THE CROWDS REALLY ALL THAT WISE? )
TAKE ONE-TO-ONE TO THE NEXT LEVEL(“DIRECT RESPONSE” TO “DIRECT FEEDBACK”)
WHERE’S THE TWITTER ENTERPRISE DASHBOARD?
USERS SPECULATORSVS
LIFETIME CUSTOMER CONVERSATIONS INCREASE LIFETIME CUSTOMER VALUE
OVER TIME POINT IN TIMEVS
• ONLINE REVIEWS AND BRAND FEEDBACK FIXED IN TIME
‘YOU RECENTLY PURCHASED / USED / VISITED’
• FEEDBACK HAS TO BE DIRECTLY SOLICITED AND INCENTED OVER LIFETIME
OF RELATIONSHIP
‘HOW DO YOU FEEL NOW?’
OWNERSHIP / EXPERIENCE BASED SATISFACTION
People are finding social media opinion less reliable
Trust depends on a interrelationship of contextual factors which determine content’s value
Marketers have an opportunity to forge a true one-to-one connection to build lasting value and earn trust
CHEERS!#quest4trust #kmacwithcheese