SydneySelf-knowledge through numbers

Significant OutliersHow much can one data point inform?

By Bo Li

The scientific method most of us will be familiar with.

Aims to maximize accuracy

Make informed hypothesis Design experiment to test Analyse and adjust if necessary

The default method

Novel experiences besides those intended to be measured.

Concordant ◦ Weight loss◦ Less mental fog

Discordant◦ Improved productivity◦ Feeling sleepy earlier◦ Jaw tension

Peripheral Observation

Relevant xkcd

An observation that lies outside normal experience.

Generally inadequately accounted for by conventional measures of significance.

‘One perfect day’

‘Turkey problem’

Enter Outliers

A single outlier generally only indicates ‘weak’ associations.

Prone to false positives but useful as starting point.

Zero frequency

Convergent events

Convergence of coincidences

Ex1: Stomach cramps Hereditary condition causing painful cramps

and gastrointestinal upset. Irregular av.~1/month in frequency

Last experienced 04/03/12

Polyphasic sleep

Diet overhaul

Cold thermogenesis

Unknown

2012

Device measuring HRV.

Subjective feeling of being ‘calmer’ and more present.

Two outliers: felt fine, but could not get device to turn green.

Next day spent fixing/scraping code due to glaring errors.

Ex2: Emwave

May-12 development of a bad rash in the small of the back.

Tried balm, extra padding, change chair, etc Rash went away.

Jun-13 Shortly after moving workstations, had relapse.

Change of chair as common element.

Ex3: Mystery rash

Track events outside normal experience and recurrent, unusual events.

Conduct self-experiments as normal.

Build associations between experiments and observations.

Strength of association determined by degree of changed experience.

Method summary

Very little effort spent to log. Does not require a priori hypothesis. Less time needed for results. Ability to find meaning in fairly trivial or

transient events. Visceral rather than abstract associations.

Misses slight incremental improvements. Lacks rigour

Benefits and Drawbacks

Questions?