syft draft 7 dh · 136.6 47.7 135.6 14.9 7.8 5.0 ev/ebitda net(dps(c imputation net(yield...

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EASTBOURNE ADVISORY LIMITED 1 Eastbourne Advisory Limited does not warrant the accuracy of any information or forecasts in this report. Recommendations may not be appropriate and investors must consider their own circumstances and seek independent advice. Analyst: Andrew Mortimer Email: [email protected] Mobile: +64(0)27457 5730 Date: 7 December 2016 SYFT TECHNOLOGIES Waking up and smelling the roses Ticker: N/A Price ($):0.060 Market Cap ($m):$65.0 SYFT technology analyses in real time and for multiple compounds gaseous compositions to detect wanted gases, dangerous gases, unwanted contaminants and illicit compounds for a very wide range of industries. The company’s shares currently “trade” on the grey market but the company is looking at moving to a more visible market to enhance liquidity, currently the company has 650 shareholders. The last share trade was at 6cps valuing the company’s equity at $65m. The key advantages over competitor technology is that it is real time and can detect multiple compounds simultaneously and compounds not detectable by other instruments and at very small trace levels offering superior performance against traditional technology and opens up a range of entirely new markets. CEO Doug Hastie has grand ambitions for the company and is on record saying he “expects it to be a billion dollar company in a relatively short period of time” (by revenue). Over the past three years he has been instrumental in the company’s turnaround to profit. Currently SYFT is not well known globally but this is changing and awareness is growing through the acquisition of a number of blue chip clients including Samsung, LG, Palmolive, SC Johnson, Lear Corporation and Baker Hughes amongst others. SYFT expect to see a rapid increase in growth in revenues and profitability in the medium term. While the growth track will not be straight line, the company expects to be selling 500 1000 instruments (~$125m$250m revenue) per annum within the next 5 years. As SYFT’s star rises it will be presented with a huge opportunity in what is a multi billion industry estimated at between US$4US$14 billion depending on how the market is segmented and in a market growing strongly organically. Our Base Case scenario yields a 11.5c valuation but is very unstable given an uncertain growth track but our base case forecasts are considerable lower than the Company’s ambitions for $1bn revenues on improved margins. Investment Fundamentals Financial and Valuation Metrics $000 Year to 31 March Adjusted Earnings EPS Adjusted EPS Growth P/E 0 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 476 1,362 479 4,352 8,312 13,002 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 NA NA C65% 808% 91% 56% 136.6 47.7 135.6 14.9 7.8 5.0 EV/EBITDA Net DPS c Imputation Net Yield Gross Yield Source: Company data, estimates 118.0 44.6 121.1 14.5 7.4 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

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Page 1: Syft Draft 7 DH · 136.6 47.7 135.6 14.9 7.8 5.0 EV/EBITDA Net(DPS(c Imputation Net(Yield Gross(Yield Source:(Company(data,(estimates 118.0 44.6 121.1 14.5 7.4 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     1  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

 

 

Analyst:  Andrew  Mortimer  

Email:  [email protected]  

Mobile:  +64-­‐(0)27-­‐457  5730  

Date:  7  December  2016  

SYFT  TECHNOLOGIES                            

Waking  up  and  smelling  the  roses  

 Ticker:  N/A  

Price  ($):0.060    Market  Cap  ($m):$65.0    

   

n SYFT  technology  analyses  in  real  time  and  for  multiple  compounds  gaseous  compositions  to  detect  wanted  gases,  dangerous  gases,  unwanted  contaminants  and  illicit  compounds  for  a  very  wide  range  of  industries.  

n The  company’s  shares  currently  “trade”  on  the  grey  market  but  the  company  is  looking  at  moving  to  a  more  visible  market  to  enhance  liquidity,  currently  the  company  has  650  shareholders.  The  last  share  trade  was  at  6cps  valuing  the  company’s  equity  at  $65m.  

n The  key  advantages  over  competitor  technology  is  that  it  is  real  time  and  can  detect  multiple  compounds  simultaneously  and  compounds  not  detectable  by  other  instruments  and  at  very  small  trace  levels  offering  superior  performance  against  traditional  technology  and  opens  up  a  range  of  entirely  new  markets.  

n CEO  Doug  Hastie  has  grand  ambitions  for  the  company  and  is  on  record  saying  he  “expects  it  to  be  a  billion  dollar  company  in  a  relatively  short  period  of  time”  (by  revenue).  Over  the  past  three  years  he  has  been  instrumental  in  the  company’s  turnaround  to  profit.  

n Currently  SYFT  is  not  well  known  globally  but  this  is  changing  and  awareness  is  growing  through  the  acquisition  of  a  number  of  blue  chip  clients  including  Samsung,  LG,  Palmolive,  SC  Johnson,  Lear  Corporation  and  Baker  Hughes  amongst  others.    

n SYFT  expect  to  see  a  rapid  increase  in  growth  in  revenues  and  profitability  in  the  medium  term.  While  the  growth  track  will  not  be  straight  line,  the  company  expects  to    be  selling  500  -­‐  1000  instruments  (~$125m-­‐$250m  revenue)  per  annum  within  the  next  5  years.    

n As  SYFT’s  star  rises  it  will  be  presented  with  a  huge  opportunity  in  what  is  a  multi  billion  industry  estimated  at  between  US$4-­‐US$14  billion  depending  on  how  the  market  is  segmented  and  in  a  market  growing  strongly  organically.  

n Our  Base  Case  scenario  yields  a  11.5c  valuation  but  is  very  unstable  given  an  uncertain  growth  track  but  our  base  case  forecasts  are  considerable  lower  than  the  Company’s  ambitions  for  $1bn  revenues  on  improved  margins.  

Investment  Fundamentals  

   

Financial'and'Valuation'Metrics'$000Year'to'31'MarchAdjusted(EarningsEPS(AdjustedEPS(GrowthP/E

Financial'and'Valuation'Metrics'$0002015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F476 1,362 479 4,352 8,312 13,0020.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2NA NA C65% 808% 91% 56%

136.6 47.7 135.6 14.9 7.8 5.0EV/EBITDANet(DPS(cImputationNet(YieldGross(YieldSource:(Company(data,(estimates

118.0 44.6 121.1 14.5 7.4 4.30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NA NA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NA NA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NA NA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Page 2: Syft Draft 7 DH · 136.6 47.7 135.6 14.9 7.8 5.0 EV/EBITDA Net(DPS(c Imputation Net(Yield Gross(Yield Source:(Company(data,(estimates 118.0 44.6 121.1 14.5 7.4 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     2  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

Executive  Summary  SYFT  proprietary  instruments  deliver  a  combination  of  unique  gas  analysis  attributes  including  high  selectivity  (The  property  of  affecting  some  things  and  not  others),  very  low  limits  of  detection,  high  speed,  ease  of  use,  and  very  low  total  cost  of  ownership  for  a  wide  variety  of  end  markets.  They  can  also  measure  compounds  that  are  very  difficult  to  analyze  with  other  techniques,  such  as  reduced  sulfur  compounds,  aldehydes,  volatile  fatty  acids,  amines,  chloroamines,  and  siloxanes,  in  addition  to  the  more  routine  analytes  such  as  hydrocarbons  and  halogenated  hydrocarbons.  

In  essence,  SYFT  technology  analyses  in  retail  time  and  for  multiple  compounds  gaseous  compositions  to  detect  wanted  gases,  dangerous  gases,  unwanted  contaminants,  and  illicit  compounds  for  a  very  wide  range  of  industries.  The  key  advantages  over  competitor  technology  is  that  it  is  real  time  and  can  detect  multiple  compounds  simultaneously  and  compounds  not  detectable  by  other  instruments  and  at  very  small  trace  levels.    

Benefits  of  SIFT-­‐MS  Include;  n Instantaneous,  quantitative  analysis  of  air  and  headspace  (where  the  gases  are  

captive)  with  very  high  sensitivity  and  selectivity.  n Simultaneous  analysis  of  chemically  diverse  VOCs  (volatile  organic  compounds  e.g.  

aldehydes,  amines  and  organosulfurs).  n Direct  analysis  of  high  humidity  samples.  n Simplicity  of  operation.  n Simple  integration  with  existing  infrastructure.  

n Low  maintenance  and  long-­‐term  stability.  

CEO  Doug  Hastie  has  grand  ambitions  for  the  company  and  is  on  record  saying  he  “expects  it  to  be  a  billion  dollar  company  in  a  relatively  short  period  of  time”  (by  revenue).  The  company  believes  it  can  achieve  that  ambition  with  its  present  product  suite  but  plans  to  add  more  products  which  have  synergies  with  its,  sales,  marketing  and  distribution  operating  model.    

Due  to  the  high  cost  per  instrument  and  attractive  Gross  Margins,  SYFT  does  not  need  to  sell  a  large  number  of  units  before  it  becomes  very  profitable. SYFT  expect  to  see  a  rapid  increase  in  growth  in  revenues  and  profitability  in  the  medium  term.  While  the  growth  track  will  be  hard  to  predict  and  is  unlikely  to  be  straight  line,  from  16  instruments  sold  FY16,  the  company  expects  to  be  selling  500  -­‐  1000  instruments  (~$125m-­‐$250m  revenue)  per  annum  within  the  next  5  years.    

The  nature  of  selling  scientific  instruments  means  the  customers  tend  to  be  very  conservative;  creating  a  barrier  to  entry  SYFT  needed  to  clear  before  becoming  generally  accepted  as  a  reliable,  capable  and  quality  option;  meaning  converting  sales  can  take  some  time.  

Currently  SYFT  is  not  well  known  globally  but  this  is  changing  and  awareness  is  growing  through  the  acquisition  of  a  number  of  blue  chip  clients  including  Samsung,  LG,  Palmolive,  SE  Johnson,  Lear  Corporation  and  Baker  Hughes  along  with  a  number  of  very  well  respected  research  organisations  amongst  others.  Samsung  is  currently  the  largest  repeat  customer  having  already  bought  30  machines  with  the  expectation  for  sales  of  potentially  100’s  more  adding  significant  credibility  as  a  product  champion.

 

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     3  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

Sales  leads  are  generated  in  a  number  of  ways.  At  present  most  come  from  SYFT’s  distributors  but  more  recently  (over  the  last  6  months)  SYFT  have  put  greater  emphasis  on  marketing  and  several  leads  are  now  coming  direct.    SYFT  also  sell  a  significant  number  of  instruments  through  word  of  mouth  illustrating  the  respect  it  is  beginning  to  command  in  the  marketplace.  Repeat  business  is  increasing  and  almost  all  customers  to  date  have  bought  multiple  instruments.  

As  SYFT’s  star  rises  it  will  be  presented  with  a  huge  opportunity  in  what  is  a  multi  billion  industry  estimated  at  between  US$4-­‐US$14  billion  depending  on  how  the  market  is  segmented  and  is  overall,  growing  strongly.

New  markets  are  opening  up  all  the  time  and  the  size  of  the  addressable  market  for  SYFT  instruments  is  likely  to  grow  significantly.  SYFTs  challenge  may  well  be  focusing  on  the  number  of  opportunities  than  can  be  adequately  resourced  in  the  short  term.  

We  believe  that  were  SYFT  Technology  licenced  to,  or  sold  to  a  recognised  and  trusted  brand  in  the  sector  (of  which  there  are  many),  market  access  would  be  considerably  lubricated  and  volumes  sold  could  be  multiples  higher.  At  the  right  time,  a  partnership  with  one  of  the  larger  players  in  the  market  could  in  our  view  see  a  significant  increase  in  market  share  and  the  creation  of  tremendous  value  for  shareholders.      

SYFT  could  well  be  the  target  of  corporate  activity  in  the  future  but  we  expect  SYFT  will  build  more  brand  value  and  sell  higher  volumes  before  shareholders  should  consider  parting  with  their  holdings.  

This  report  has  been  written  assuming  a  6.0c  Last  Share  Price  and  Current  Offer  Price.  

For  information  about  buying  or  selling  Shares  in  the  Company  click  on  the  following  link.  

https://www.sharemart.co.nz/Secure/Syft-­‐Technologies-­‐Limited  

About  The  Company  Founded  on  technology  out  of  the  Canterbury  University  and  established  in  2002,  Syft  initially  pursued  medical  testing  applications.  However  it  was  unsuccessful  in  developing  a  commercial  product  and  in  2012  changed  its  strategy  to  a  much  wider  variety  of  applications.    

Market  applications  targeted  now  include  testing  the  air  in  shipping  containers  (safety  and  food  contamination),  testing  for  trace  elements  in  industrial  "clean  rooms"  (where  contaminants  can  degrade  products  manufactured  e.g.  semi-­‐conductors),  indoor  and  outdoor  emissions  analysis  (e.g.  smoke-­‐stacks),  testing  for  the  "new  car  smell”  and  analysis  for  the  oil  exploration  industry  amongst  many  others.    

SYFT  instruments  differentiate  from  its  competitor’s  products  by  their  ability  to  deliver  real  time  results.  The  firm's  focus  is  now  as  much  on  improving  its  sales  and  marketing  performance  as  improving  the  technology.  This  decision  is  being  vindicated  by  the  large  increase  in  sales  volumes  expected  in  the  current  year.  Currently  most  sales  are  made  by  distributors  with  one  or  two  each  year  sold  direct  although  four  were  sold  direct  FY16.  Since  2002,  the  company  has  sold  around  130  instruments.  

Since  development  adaptations  to  the  technology  have  included  improved  limits  of  detection,  a  45%  reduction  in  build  cost,  Dual  Polarity  Ion  Source  (Negative  Ions),  New  Inlet  options,  Swab  Desorber  for  detecting  semi-­‐volatiles,  new  software  and  new  methods  for  different  applications.  All  these  improvements  have  been  made  since  2012.  

Page 4: Syft Draft 7 DH · 136.6 47.7 135.6 14.9 7.8 5.0 EV/EBITDA Net(DPS(c Imputation Net(Yield Gross(Yield Source:(Company(data,(estimates 118.0 44.6 121.1 14.5 7.4 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     4  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

The  company  currently  has  40  staff  having  hired  20  new  staff  over  the  last  year  and  is  planning  to  hire  around  another  20  in  the  current  year,  principally  in  sales  and  development  functions.  Staff  includes  a  wide  range  of  nationalities  and  are  highly  engaged  evidenced  by  their  willingness  to  support  the  company  through  its  hardest  days  and  are  very  passionate  about  the  innovative  product  the  company  has  developed.  

In  FY15  the  directors  implemented  an  employee  share  option  scheme  recognizing  its  people  are  its  greatest  asset  and  that  it  needs  to  retain  and  incentivize  key  staff.  One  of  the  key  attributes  of  the  company  has  been  their  loyalty  to  the  company  and  the  products  they  have  developed.  

Catalysts  for  Share  Price  Performance    n Acquisition  of  new,  and  repeat  sales  to  Blue  Chip  multinational  company’s  creating  

further  sales  momentum.  n Increased  liquidity  and  awareness  following  migration  to  a  more  visible  share-­‐

trading  platform.    n The  potential  for  corporate  activity  medium  term.  Core  Strategy  The  board  and  management  have  aspirations  for  SYFT  to  be  a  very  large  profitable  business.  This  first  step  is  to  develop  the  business  for  SIFT-­‐MS  instruments  through  sales,  marketing  and  further  development.  Once  this  business  is  established  and  business  processes  are  optimised  the  Company  can  add  other  measurement  techniques  and  operate  them  through  its  business  platform.  The  ultimate  destination  is  to  step  further  up  the  value  chain  and  not  just  provide  measurement  solutions  but  total  solutions  to  the  underlying  problems.  This  includes  medical  diagnostics  through  breath  testing,  improved  air  quality  and  better  food  quality.  

The  SIFT  System  For  those  with  a  scientific  bent,  SIFT-­‐MS  is  a  tool  for  high-­‐throughput  and  real-­‐time  gas  analysis  applications.  SYFT’s  SIFT-­‐MS  instrumentation  is  industry  proven,  providing  non-­‐technical  operators  with  laboratory-­‐grade  chemical  analysis  presented  in  a  format  that  they  can  understand  and  act  on  quickly.  The  ionization  process  SYFT  has  developed  is  unique  and  requires  no  workup  of  gas/treatment  and  can  measure  compounds  simultaneously  and  in  real  time.  

Selected  ion  flow  tube  mass  spectrometry  (SIFT-­‐MS)  is  a  form  of  direct  mass  spectrometry  that  analyzes  trace  amounts  of  volatile  organic  compounds  (VOCs)  and  inorganic  gases  in  air.  Real-­‐time,  quantitative  analysis  is  achieved  by  applying  precisely  controlled  soft  chemical  ionization  and  eliminating  sample  preparation,  pre-­‐concentration  and  chromatography.  Those  wanting  further  information  on  the  technology  should  click-­‐on  the  following  links.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIswYTmNoC8  

http://SYFT.com/wp-­‐content/uploads/2015/10/SYFT-­‐Technology-­‐Overview-­‐BCR-­‐003-­‐02.1-­‐A4.pdf  

SYFT  has  more  recently  widened  the  number  of  compounds  it  can  detect  by  adding  technology  able  to  detect  negative  ions.  This  technology  was  developed  for  Stack  Analysis  for  Samsung  (i.e.  measuring  and  analyzing  what  comes  out  of  the  factory  smokestack).    

 

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     5  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

Samsung  indicate  they  may  have  demand  for  300  instruments  for  this  application  and  is  currently  in  trial.  If  the  trial  proves  successful  for  Samsung  it  is  quite  likely  for  SYFT  instruments  to  be  rolled  out  for  this  application  around  the  world  and  across  a  wide  range  of  industries.  

SYFT  have  also  found  that  negative  ions  are  also  very  useful  for  monitoring  VIAQ  (car  interiors),  semi-­‐conductors  and  for  Environmental  Monitoring  and  believe  it  will  open  many  more  markets  as  it  enhances  selectivity  (can  measure  a  complex  matrix)  and  gives  an  ability  to  measure  compounds  that  other  instruments  can’t.  

Benefits  of  SIFT-­‐MS  include:  n Instantaneous,  quantitative  analysis  of  air  and  headspace  with  very  high  sensitivity  

and  selectivity.  n Simultaneous  analysis  of  chemically  diverse  VOCs  (e.g.  aldehydes,  amines  and  

organo-­‐sulfurs).  n Direct  analysis  of  high  humidity  samples.  n Simplicity  of  operation.  n Simple  integration  with  existing  infrastructure.  n Low  maintenance.  n The  creation  of  value  for  the  customer.  Syft  Combines  the  Best  of  the  other  Technologies  

   

Applications  Product  Quality  The  unintentional  presence  of  volatile  and/or  semi-­‐volatile  organic  compounds  (Vocs  and  SVocs)  can  significantly  impact  the  quality  of  certain  products,  including  semiconductors,  food  products,  and  pharmaceuticals.  These  quality  issues  can  result  in  product  losses,  shortened  product  life,  and  brand  damage.    

SIFT  MS  can  quantify  Vocs  and  SVocs  in  real  time,  at  the  required  concentrations,  so  that  issues  are  detected  on-­‐line  in  real  time  and  can  be  dealt  with  immediately.  This  offers  the  customer  economic  benefits  through  reduced  product  losses  in  the  factory,  and  adds  an  additional  layer  of  protection  from  the  distribution  of  faulty  product.  

   

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     6  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

Shipping  Containers  Shipping  containers  are  used  to  transport  a  huge  variety  of  goods,  including  chemicals,  industrial  equipment,  household  items  and  food  products.  This  introduces  a  significant  and  unquantified  risk  to  companies  that  pack  containers  with  sensitive  consumer  products,  such  as  foodstuffs,  pharmaceuticals,  and  personal  care  products.    

SYFT  technologies  provide  unique  solutions  that  allow  companies  to  reduce  the  risk  of  using  containers  that  are  contaminated  with  tainting  compounds,  such  as  tribromoanisole  (tBA-­‐ that  causes  unpleasant  earthy,  musty  and  moldy  aromas)  and  dichlorophenol  (DcP-­‐  that  is  used  primarily  as  an  intermediate  in  the  preparation  of  herbicides).    

Also  frontline  workers  in  the  shipping  and  border  security  industries  face  constant  danger  from  exposure  to  undocumented  or  incorrectly  packaged  toxic  compounds,  such  as  fumigants  and  toxic  industrial  chemicals  (TICs)  and  in  some  cases,  fatal  exposures  have  occurred.  Using  SYFT  ensures  regulatory  requirements  for  minimizing  worker  exposure  to  fumigants  are  met  and  worker  health  and  safety  is  enhanced.  Compared  to  conventional  analysis,  time  per  analysis  and  cost  per  analysis  are  significantly  reduced.    

Applications  include:    n Enhanced  container  surveys  at  the  depot  to  identify  and  remove  tainted  

containers  from  the  supply  chain.    n Quality  control  of  incoming  empty  containers  at  the  pack  point  or  distribution  

centre.    n Quality  assurance  of  incoming  product  at  unloading  point.    n Human  Safety.  

Food  Flavours  and  aromas  are  primarily  derived  from  volatile  organic  compounds  (VOCs).  These  compounds  are  chemically  diverse,  and  they  can  have  a  profound  effect  on  the  human  perception  (both  favorable  or  unfavorable)  over  an  extremely  broad  concentration  range.  For  example,  over  1000  VOCs  have  been  identified  in  the  headspace  of  coffee,  with  a  much  smaller  number  characterized  as  key  aroma  compounds.  

Raw  materials  for  the  food  processing  industry  usually  show  seasonal  and  other  quality  variations.  When  coupled  with  changes  in  the  performance  of  processing  equipment,  product  quality  may  vary.  Since  aromas  are  derived  from  Vocs  and  are  a  key  component  of  consumer  perception  of  the  product,  best  results  are  obtained  by  monitoring  the  product  during  processing.    

Selective  analysis  of  the  individual  compounds  within  a  complex  food  matrix  is  a  difficult  challenge  for  any  analytical  technique.  SYFT  provides  an  superior  solution  through  the  application  of  eight  rapidly  switchable  reagent  ions.    The  varied  ionization  chemistry  of  these  reagents  enables  the  rapid,  sensitive,  and  highly  selective  measurement  of  a  wide  range  of  chemically  diverse  flavor  and  aroma  compounds.  

Sift-­‐MS  instruments  are  excellent  process-­‐line  monitors  for  sensitive  detection  and  quantitation  of  both  oxidation  and  Maillard  reaction  products  (food  products  which  brown)  that  indicate  the  degree  of  processing  and  the  product  quality.    

 

 

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     7  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

Benefits  of  applying  SIFT-­‐MS  on  the  food  processing  line  include;  

n rapid  quality  assurance  of  incoming  raw  materials  to  eliminate  losses  caused  by  their  use.    

n optimization  of  formation  of  favorable  aroma  compounds  that  aid  consumer  acceptance  and  mask  unfavorable  oxidation  aromas  formed  during  ageing.    

n reduction  of  product  losses  due  to  formation  of  unfavorable  aromas  (such  as  rancidity).    

Customers  in  this  sector  have  included  Kraft  Heinz  and  Fonterra.  

Vehicle  Suppliers  and  Manufacturers  The  health  impacts  of  the  “new  car  smell”  have  led  several  countries  to  impose  limits  on  the  concentrations  of  volatile  organic  compounds  (VOCs)  emitted  from  newly  manufactured  vehicles.  

Vehicle  interior  air  quality  (VIAQ)  testing  is  a  challenging  application  due  to  the  diversity  of  the  target  compounds  (aldehydes  and  VOCs).  Testing  all  vehicles  is  desirable  due  to  the  batch-­‐to-­‐batch  variability  of  target  VOCs,  however,  this  is  not  practical  with  conventional  High  Performance  Liquid  Chromatography  (HPLC)  and  Gas  Chromatography–Mass  Spectrometry  (GC/MS)  techniques  due  to  the  time  and  expense  of  each  analysis.  

SYFT  can  analyze  all  of  the  VOCs  required  by  the  Chinese,  Japanese,  and  Korean  standards  to  well  below  the  current  limits.  Analysis  is  simple,  requiring  no  sample  preparation,  so  each  car  can  be  analysed  by  front-­‐line  staff.  Due  to  fast  analysis  times,  all  cars  coming  off  a  production  line  can  be  analyzed,  and  any  deviations  or  changes  in  production  can  be  detected  in  real-­‐time  and  dealt  with  immediately.  

The  rapid  analysis  also  provides  a  means  to  economically  test  VOC  and  aldehyde  levels  in  components  supplied  to  the  OEM.  Analysis  can  be  carried  out  by  the  supplier,  or  by  the  OEM  on  receipt.  Any  product  that  fails  testing  can  be  rejected,  preventing  costly  tear-­‐out  later.    

Customers  in  this  sector  have  included  Lear  Corporation  and  Guilford  Performance  Textiles. Lear  Corporation  is  a  Fortune  500  company,  engaged  in  the  business  of  manufacturing  and  distribution  of  automotive  seating  and  electrical  distribution  systems  for  OEM’s,  has  sales  of  around  US$22bn  p.a.  and  employs  ~113,000  people  globally.  Guilford,  a  subsidiary  of  Lear  Corporation,  is  the  global  textile  solution  of  choice  for  many  leading  OEMs  around  the  world.  

Ambient  Air  Quality  Volatile  organic  compounds  (VOCs)  are  significant  air  pollutants.  Air  quality  agencies  and  policy  makers  recognize  the  public  health  issues  associated  with  unmonitored  and  un-­‐quantified  VOC  pollution,  but  lack  satisfactory  methods  for  rapidly  measuring  chemically  diverse  VOCs  at  the  required  detection  limits.  Comprehensive  ambient  air  analysis  typically  utilizes  a  collection  of  instruments  for  detecting  various  inorganic  gases  (such  as  greenhouse  gases  and  ozone)  and  VOCs,  resulting  in  monitoring  sites  that  are  expensive  to  establish  and  maintain.  

SYFT  provides  rapid,  high-­‐sensitivity  analysis  of  VOCs  and  inorganic  gases  at  ambient  levels  with  no  sample  preparation  required.  SYFT’s  Dual-­‐polarity  ion  source  provides  eight  independent,  rapidly  switchable  reagent  ions  for  sample  interrogation.    

 

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     8  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

The  different  ionization  mechanisms  provided  by  these  reagent  ions  significantly  enhance  selectivity  for  all  VOC  analyses  and  enables  the  analysis  of  a  wide  range  of  inorganic  and  permanent  gases.  

Customers  in  this  sector  have  included  amongst  others,  Samsung,  the  University  of  York,  The  University  of  California  and  CSIRO.  

Semiconductors  Fabrication  of  semiconductors,  photovoltaics  (the  conversion  of  light  into  electricity  using  semiconducting  materials)  and  LCD/LED  panels  utilizes  extremely  high-­‐precision  manufacturing  equipment  in  an  ultraclean  environment.  The  presence  of  volatile  and/or  semi  volatile  organic  compounds  (VOCs  and  SVOCs)  can  significantly  impact  on  the  quality  of  semiconductor  products.  These  quality  issues  result  in  product  losses,  shortened  product  life,  and  potentially  brand  damage.  Volatile  or  semi  volatile  contaminants  in  air  degrade  semiconductor  performance,  increase  the  frequency  of  expensive  maintenance,  and  shorten  the  operational  service  of  fabrication  equipment.  

SYFT  provides  rapid,  ultra-­‐trace  analysis  of  air  for  the  compounds  that  have  an  impact  on  production  quality,  reducing  product  loss  and  equipment  failure.  

Customers  in  this  sector  have  included  Samsung  and  SMIC.  

Border  Security  With  the  continual  growth  of  global  trade  and  travel,  the  demand  for  accurate,  reliable,  rapid,  and  selective  security  screening  technologies  is  ever  increasing.    Border  security  agencies  must  screen  for  a  large  range  of  threats  including  explosives,  narcotics,  toxic  chemicals,  illicit  tobacco  and  chemical  warfare  agents  (CWAs).  

SYFT’s  solution  for  the  detection  of  these  compounds  relies  on  the  measurement  of  characteristic  VOCs.    SYFT’s  unique  Dual-­‐polarity  ion  source  provides  eight  rapidly  switchable  reagent  ions  with  which  to  interrogate  the  sample  giving  a  fast  and  sensitive  analysis  and  largely  eliminating  the  possibility  of  false-­‐positive  results.  

SYFT  have  sold  over  30  instruments  to  Canadian,  Australian  and  Dutch  customs  for  the  Health  and  Safety  of  Customers  Officers  entering  containers.    SYFT  have  developed  strong  customer  relations  with  these  customers  and  are  looking  to  address  the  much  larger  market  for  the  detection  of  narcotics,  explosives,  and  tobacco.  While  initial  dialogue  has  been  positive,  until  now  the  company  has  not  had  sufficient  resource  to  develop  this  market.    

Breath  Research  Volatile  organic  compounds  (VOCs)  and  certain  inorganic  gases  (such  as  nitric  oxide)  occur  at  trace  concentrations  on  human  breath  due  to  a  range  of  metabolic  processes.  Measurement  of  the  concentration  profiles  of  these  compounds  allows  the  identification  of  markers  of  ill  health  by  comparing  profiles  from  the  unwell  with  those  from  the  “healthy  normal”  population.  Diabetes  and  kidney  disease  are  two  conditions  that  have  been  linked  to  breath  VOC  markers  using  SIFT-­‐MS.  

Rapid  instrumental  detection  of  volatile  biomarkers  has  proved  challenging  due  to  the  complexity  and  high  humidity  of  the  matrix  and  the  low  concentrations  of  the  target  compounds.  SIFT-­‐MS  is  the  only  technology  to  successfully  address  all  of  these  challenges.  Researchers  access  breath-­‐by-­‐breath  analysis  that’s  both  practical  and  accurate.  Breath  profiles  for  a  broad  range  of  compounds  are  captured  and  displayed  as  they  occur.  More  patients  can  be  screened,  and  results  are  instant.  

 

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     9  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

Customers  in  this  sector  have  included  the  Canterbury  DHB,  the  Cleveland  Clinic,  Stanford  University,  the  University  of  West  England  and  the  University  of  South  Australia  amongst  others.  The  Cleveland  Clinic  is  recognized  as  one  of  the  top  medical  centres  in  the  USA  and  the  world.  

Mud  Logging  High-­‐penetration-­‐rate  drilling  technologies  present  a  challenge  to  current  mud-­‐gas  analysis  techniques  as  they  are  either  too  slow  (gas  chromatography),  or  do  not  quantify  a  complete  range  of  compounds  (photometric  and  electrochemical  techniques).    

SYFT’s  instrument  (Mudlogger)  analyses  a  wide  range  of  inorganics  and  hydrocarbons  at  a  very  fast  rate.    Compounds  analysed  include  saturated,  unsaturated,  cyclic  and  aromatic  hydrocarbons;  inorganics  including  H2S,  and  other  reduced  sulfur  compounds.  The  typical  analysis  time  of  10  seconds,  allow  multiple  data  points  to  be  averaged  for  each  foot  of  depth.  Fast  gas  chromatography  (GC)  analyses  by  comparison  are  typically  limited  to  C1  to  C5  analysis  with  90  seconds  per  analysis  cycle.  

While  it  is  early  days  for  this  application,  customers  in  this  sector  include  Baker  Hughes.  Baker  Hughes  is  one  of  the  world's  largest  oil  field  services  companies  with  ~33,000  employees.  It  operates  in  over  90  countries,  providing  the  oil  and  gas  industry  with  products  and  services  for  oil  drilling,  formation,  evaluation,  completion,  production  and  reservoir  consulting.  Discussions  are  currently  underway  with  other  companies  in  the  sector.  

Competition  SYFT’s  technology  is  new  so  while  it  has  considerable  advantages  over  Chromatography  techniques  in  terms  of  speed,  being  real-­‐time  and  able  to  analyse  more  compounds  simultaneously  the  biggest  issues  it  faces  is  lack  of  awareness  and  acceptance  of  what  is  new  and  disruptive  technology.  SYFT  have  little  credible  competition  when  competing  head  to  head  for  many  applications.  In  contested  situations,  SYFT  normally  come  up  against  traditional  technology  like  GC-­‐MS,  LC/MS  and  HPLC.    

These  are  manufactured  by  companies  such  as  Agilent,  Thermo,  Bruker,  Shimadzu  and  others  (see  appendix  2  for  a  more  comprehensive  list).  In  describing  the  price  proposition  of  SYFT  versus  its  “competition”,  this  depends  on  the  technique  and  the  add-­‐ons  but  for  some  colour,  prices  range  from  US$120,000  for  GC-­‐MS  to  US$400,000  for  HPLC  with  SYFT  sitting  somewhere  near  the  middle  of  this  range.    

The  scientific  instrument  market  is  very  conservative  and  slow  to  change  and  there  are  large  barriers  to  entry  in  terms  of  development  costs,  which  are  large.  At  present,  SYFT  believe  there  is  no  one  in  the  market  with  technology  that  is  close  to  being  as  good  as  its  own,  however,  as  the  company’s  success  continues  it  does  expect  emulators.    

The  Principles  of  Gas  Chromatography  (GC/MS),  The  Main  Competition  Gas  Chromatography  is  a  technique,  which  separates  a  gas  mixture  to  determine  the  presence  and  concentration  of  gases  and  impurities  in  a  sample.  Applied  correctly,  GC  can  measure  down  to  ppb  levels,  making  it  well  suited  for  use  in  high  purity  processes.  In  GC,  gas  mixture  components  are  separated  by  circulating  a  gas  sample,  using  an  inert  carrier  gas,  into  a  flow-­‐through  circular  tube  known  as  a  column.  The  different  gas  constituents  are  separated  due  to  their  interaction  with  the  column  material,  which  cause  the  different  molecules  in  the  sample  to  elute  at  different  times.  These  specific  retention  times  are  detected  by  a  sensor  at  the  column  exit,  as  the  individual  molecular  properties  of  each  gas  cause  it  to  travel  through  and  exit  at  a  different  time.  

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     10  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

The  comparison  of  retention  times  allows  users  to  qualitatively  identify  gas  types  by  the  order  in  which  they  elute  from  the  column.  If  conditions  are  constant,  a  particular  gas  will  elute  (to  wash  out  or  extract)  with  the  same  retention  time,  allowing  specific  gas  types  to  be  deduced  from  the  area  of  the  peak.  In  addition,  the  relative  volume  of  each  gas  concentration  can  also  be  measured  by  the  detector  as  each  gas  elutes  from  the  column.  

The  conditions  by  which  GC  operates  for  a  given  application  are  invariably  different  and  require  individual  optimization.  The  majority  of  GC  analyzers  are  therefore  preset  at  the  factory,  with  application  specific  valve  timings,  flow  and  temperature  settings  and  peak  detection  parameters.  

SIFT  (Selected  Ion  Flow  Tube)  is  the  differentiator  from  GC  as  it  separates  in  real  time  through  Ion  Chemistry  whereas  Chromatography  separate  flow  through  the  column.  GC  (and  all  chromatography  solutions)  require  the  sample  to  be  conditioned  first,  whereas  SIFT-­‐MS  does  a  direct  measurement  saving  considerable  time  (days)  and  ensure  exactly  what  is  there  to  be  measured.  

Another  decider  over  GC  is  speed.  While  there  are  real  time  techniques  that  are  fast,  they  don’t  have  the  sensitivity  and  selectivity  of  SIFT-­‐MS  (many  of  the  real  time  techniques  are  only  effective  if  the  sample  is  close  to  pure).  While  GC-­‐MS  has  high  selectivity  and  sensitivity,  it  is  considerably  slower  than  SIFT-­‐MS.  Fundamentally  GC  separate  different  compounds  by  speed  down  a  column  whereas  SIFT-­‐MS  separates  through  ion-­‐chemistry  all  at  the  same  time.  SIFT-­‐MS  is  easy  to  operate  and  generally  has  lower  operating  costs  than  its  alternatives.  

About  the  IP  It  is  the  SIFT  i.e.  Selected  Ion  Flow  Tube  that  is  the  key  differentiator  from  traditional  technologies  which  separate  compounds  in  Real  Time  though  Ion  Chemistry  whereas  Chromatography  separate  flow  through  the  column  which  is  a  slower  process.  

The  company  has  some  patents  around  the  flow  tube  but  are  not  relying  on  these  to  provide  protection.  The  Company’s  strongest  protection  is  in  its  expertise,  specifically  in  the  Chemistry,  Software  and  Electronics  aspects  of  the  technology,  which  would  be  very  hard  to  replicate.  Further  the  company  has  a  culture  which  is  passionate,  loyal  and  innovative  which  when  combined  with  hard  nosed  commercialism  is  likely  to  see  next  generation  instruments  with  added  features  and  potentially  lower  cost  in  the  market  on  a  regular  basis.  

About  the  Market  New  international  manufacturing  (cGMP)  and  distribution  (cGDP)  certification  for  pharmaceutical  manufacturers,  growing  food  safety  concerns,  increased  importance  of  tests  in  drug  approvals,  outsourcing  to  Asia  and  new  product  launches  are  major  factors  driving  gas  analytic  markets.  In  addition,  the  market  has  witnessed  various  technological  advancements  to  meet  the  needs  of  biotechnology  and  biopharmaceutical  companies;  food  and  beverage,  chemical,  semiconductor  industries;  and  environmental  testing.  Increasing  financial  assistance  from  governments  in  the  form  of  grants,  funds,  investments  and  subsidies  are  also  driving  growth,  especially  in  the  emerging  markets.  

Market  research  reports  for  the  chromatography  instrumentation  sector  forecast  steady  growth  for  the  industry.  According  to  these  reports,  the  market  is  expected  to  grow  at  a  robust  CAGR  of  5.7%  from  2013  to  2018  and  at  this  rate;  the  market  would  be  worth  more  than  US$10.0  Billion  by  the  end  of  2018.    

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     11  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

In  the  consumables  segment,  columns  are  expected  to  dominate  the  industry  with  a  CAGR  of  over  6%  and  reach  US$2.6  Billion  by  the  end  of  2018.    

The  largest  market  is  North  America  followed  by  Europe  with  the  two  continents  combined  accounting  for  70%  of  the  market.  While  it  is  expected  that  North  America  and  Europe  will  continue  to  command  the  largest  share  over  the  next  five  years,  the  market  in  Asia  will  expand  and  increase  at  a  faster  rate.    

The  drivers  behind  this  expansion  are  due  to  the  expansion  of  local  companies  in  Asia  and  Western  Pharma  outsourcing  its  research  and  manufacturing  operations  to  Asia,  (particularly  China  and  India).    

By  industry  Environmental  Testing  is  currently  the  largest  component  of  demand  followed  by  Agriculture  and  Food,  Academia  and  Oil  and  Gas  but  a  large  percentage  (estimated  at  33%)  is  for  unclassified  uses,  highlighting  the  very  wide  number  of  applications  for  the  technologies.  SYFTs  instrument  is  disruptive  having  features  alternative  technologies  do  not  which  can  potentially  open  up  new  markets  in  addition  to  the  traditional  chromatography  markets.    

SYFT’s  current  addressable  markets  include  analytical  instruments,  process  instruments  and  hand  held  instruments.  The  following  table  shows  the  estimated  size  of  the  analytical  instrument  market  2009-­‐2014  and  expected  growth  rates.  

 Within  the  Analytical  Instrument  market,  SYFT  compete  in  Mass  Spectrometry  and  the  Separations  and  Spectroscopy  markets  to  a  lesser  extent.    

Markets  are  now  opening  for  SYFT  that  previously  didn’t  exist  where  instruments  are  now  selling  for  new  applications  where  there  had  never  been  an  instrument  available  to  meet  the  need.    

 

Sales&By&Region&% Sales&By&Industry&%

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     12  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

SYFT  believe  the  current  market  size  available  is  US$4  billion  with  a  potential  market  of  US$14  billion  with  instrument  improvements.  Even  these  figures  are  considered  conservative  as  they  don’t  consider  process  instruments,  handheld  instruments  as  well  as  new  markets  that  will  develop.    

The  key  point  is  potential  markets  are  very  large  and  while  SYFT  can  reach  its  aspirational  revenue  target  of  US$1  billion  with  its  present  instrument  range,  the  strategy  is  to  add  more  instruments/products  to  its  development,  sales,  marketing  and  distribution  business  model.    

Sales  leads  are  generated  in  a  number  of  ways.  At  present  most  come  from  SYFT’s  distributors  but  more  recently  (over  the  last  6  months),  SYFT  have  put  greater  emphasis  on  marketing  and  several  leads  are  now  coming  direct  providing  extra  margin.  Over  2-­‐3  years  SYFT  believe  >50%  could  be  by  way  of  Direct  Sale.  SYFT  also  sell  a  significant  number  of  instruments  through  word  of  mouth  illustrating  the  respect  it  commands  in  the  marketplace.  Repeat  business  is  increasing  and  almost  all  customers  have  bought  multiple  instruments.  

Margins  and  Costs  The  company  prices  in  USD,  Euro  and  GBP  but  70%  of  revenue  are  transacted  in  USD.  There  can  be  some  flexibility  around  pricing  given  attractive  margins.  At  present  90%  of  an  exchange  rate  gain  or  loss  impacts  the  bottom  line  with  most  costs  localised.  However  this  could  be  mitigated  by  investing  in  development  costs  offshore  and  is  something  that  may  be  considered  in  the  future.  

Gross  Margins  have  increased  from  39%  FY13  to  60%  FY16,  this  improvement  can  be  attributed  to  higher  average  selling  prices  and  a  better  exchange  rate  prevailing  but  also  due  to  lower  production  costs  (reduced  by  45%).  SYFT  have  an  objective  to  increase  margins  further  over  time  through  adding  higher  margin  accessories  to  its  range,  selling  more  consulting  services  (considered  a  large  opportunity),  selling  direct  to  customers  and  through  reducing  the  cost  of  build  (likely  to  come  with  next  generation  instruments  and  scale).    

Factors  impacting  average  Gross  Margins  include  the  foreign  currency  sales  price,  the  FX  rate,  whether  the  instrument  is  sold  through  a  distributor  or  sold  direct  to  a  customer,  what  accessories  are  sold  to  the  customer,  more  recently  whether  the  Negative  Ion  Source  System  is  optioned  and  the  cost  of  labour  and  materials  to  build.  While  the  cost  to  build  is  relatively  static,  the  other  factors  referred  to  can  vary  although  the  sales  price  has  begun  to  steady  as  the  company  has  become  better  established.  

Sales  made  direct  to  an  end  customer  the  sale  are  made  at  list  price.  Sales  through  a  distributor  are  made  at  70%  of  the  list  price.  While  currently  most  sales  are  though  a  distributor  channel,  this  is  likely  to  change  over  time  as  the  company  builds  out  its  own  distribution  in  certain  geographies,  which  will  drive  higher  margins.    

Any  further  opex  investment  would  be  likely  to  be  made  in  sales,  marketing  and  development.  The  business  does  not  require  any  investment  for  manufacturing  in  terms  of  plant  or  machinery  but  might  have  working  capital  requirements  that  could  be  bank  funded.    

Over  the  last  3  years  the  company  has  made  significant  investment  in  sales,  marketing  and  development  and  a  3-­‐year  revenue  CAGR  of  21%  has  been  associated  with  an  Opex  CAGR  of  7%.    

 

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     13  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

There  is  typically  one  year  lag  between  sales  and  marketing  expenditure  and  revenue  and  the  decision  to  lift  this  spend  to  $2.0m  FY16  (34%)  has  been  vindicated  by  the  current  years  lift  in  sales  volumes.  

Research  and  Development  for  the  FY16  year  was  around  $1.5m  or  25%  of  sales.  The  company  must  continue  to  be  innovative  and  lead  the  pack  if  it  is  to  maintain  its  competitive  advantage.  These  costs  will  in  the  medium  term  continue  to  increase  both  in  dollar  and  percentage  terms  but  should  longer  term  decline  to  15%-­‐20%  of  sales.  

 An  Employee  Share  Equity  Scheme  to  Incentivise  Employees  The  company  implemented  an  Employee  Share  Option  Scheme  in  2014.  This  was  followed  with  a  second  scheme  in  2015.  In  total  there  are  6.87m  securities  outstanding  all  with  an  exercise  price  of  3c  of  which  3.61m  have  vested.  While  they  are  in  the  money  at  the  current  share  price  they  are  not  materially  dilutive  due  to  the  large  number  of  ordinary  shares  already  outstanding.      

Assembly/Manufacturing    The  company  assembles  the  machines  at  its  shared  office  and  manufacturing  facility  at  3  Craft  Place  in  Christchurch.  While  around  90%  of  components  are  sourced  in  New  Zealand,  that  only  represents  around  50%  by  value  with  high  cost  parts  like  Vacuum  Pumps,  Quadrapoles  and  Detectors  sourced  from  Europe.  The  company  currently  has  capacity  to  assemble  around  80  machines  per  annum  in  NZ  with  the  constraint  for  instrument  assembly  being  labour  This  capacity  will  increase  as  it  develops  the  next  generation  instruments,  outsources  more  of  production,  and  hires  and  train  more  people.  Production  capacity  is  very  unlikely  to  be  a  constraint  in  the  future.    

While  the  company  did  have  some  quality  issues  in  the  early  generation  of  the  product  and  more  recently  3  years  ago  following  a  large  increase  in  sales  volumes,  since  then  it  has  had  a  real  focus  on  quality  and  is  not  now  seen  as  an  issue.  When  the  company  did  have  quality  issues,  it  dealt  with  them  proactively  and  customers  affected  have  continued  to  buy  from  SYFT.  Warranties  are  usually  extended  for  1  year  only.  

Order  to  delivery  lead  times  can  vary  and  has  been  as  long  as  3  months,  currently  order  lead  times  are  around  1  month.  

A  reasonable  Capital  Position  but  could  do  with  more  to  fund  growth  At  30  September  2016,  the  company  had  cash  of  $1.8m,  and  generated  positive  operating  cash  flows  of  $1.8m  for  the  6  month  period  on  the  back  of  a  $0.8m  reduction  in  Working  Capital.  While  the  company  has  enough  capital  to  grow  at  the  current  rate,  any  acceleration  might  ideally  be  met  with  a  further  tranche  of  equity.  

Recent  News  and  outlook  At  its  AGM,  SYFT  directors  gained  approval  to  institute  a  minimum  holding  of  40,000  shares,  followed  by  a  plan  to  share  consolidation  of  20:1  and  said  it  had  plans  to  move  to  a  more  visible  share  trading  platform,  whether  this  the  “unlisted”  platform  or  a  NZX  platform  remains  to  be  seen.  The  company  also  said  that  there  were  no  immediate  plans  to  raise  more  capital.  

 

2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR

Revenue0($000) 3,362 4,980 5,283 6,011 21%

Expenses0($000) 2,360 3,022 2,489 2,855 7%

Ratio0Revenue/Operating0expenses 1.42 1.65 2.12 2.11

Profit0($000) H1,679 H339 476 1,362

Source:(Company (

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     14  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

The  Last  Few  Years  Results  FY16  keeping  up  the  momentum  For  the  year  the  company  delivered  a  $1.4m  profit  strongly  up  from  the  prior  periods  $0.5m  and  said  it  had  received  “a  large  number  of  orders”  for  delivery  FY17  and  with  the  resources  in  place  “can  really  turn  up  the  volume  on  growth”.  Over  the  period  a  futher  20  staff  were  added  to  the  pay-­‐roll  and  said  it  expected  to  add  considerably  more.  The  Gross  Margin  for  the  year  was  60%  and  compared  with  the  prior  periods  54%  with  the  improvement  in  margin  driven  by  better  pricing  and  a  more  favourable  exchange  rate.  Compared  to  revenue  growth  of  14%,  expenses  increased  15%  mainly  due  to  higher  staff  numbers  in  sales  and  development.  

The  cash  position  at  year  end  was  ~$0.2m,  operating  cashflow  was  a  $0.7m  outflow  and  outflows  from  investing  activities  $0.3m.  Operating  cashflow  included  a  Calaghan  Grant  of  $0.3m.  

R&D  for  the  period  was  $1.5m  or  around  25%  of  revenues  (pcp  $1m  or  19%)..  As  in  prior  years,  the  company  was  not  required  to  pay  tax  due  to  accumulated  losses.  

The  company  said  it  had  made  a  number  of  improvements  in  its  processes  including  Production  Inventory  and  Accounting  which  enabled  the  company  to  enhance  the  speed  at  which  it  could  operate.    

The  company  also  launched  its  “dual  polarity  ion  source”  with  a  successful  installation  at  Samsung  which  is  “unique  to  SYFT  and  vastly  increases  the  number  of  applications    for  SYFTs  Products  and  further  set  SYFT  apart  from  other  analytical  platforms”.  New  markets  available  from  this  enhanced  technology  include  Stack  Testing,  Green  House  Gas  analysis,  Gas  Purity  Analysis,  Fuel  Cell’s  and  Food  and  Flavour  application.improving  Soft  

Futher  progress  was  noted  as  having  being  made  on  VIAO  (Vehicle  Interiors  Air  Quality)  Semiconductor  and  Environmental  applications  resulting  in  a  number  of  new  orders.  

FY15,  a  maiden  full  year  profit A  maiden  full  year  profit  was  the  highlight  for  the  year.  On  revenues  of  $5.6m  (pcp  $5.0m),  the  company  delivered  NPAT  of  $0.5m  (pcp  -­‐$0.3m).  A  Gross  Margin  of  $3.0m  and  Gross  Margin  percent  of  54%,  compared  with  the  pcp’s  $2.0m  and  40%.  Over  the  period  the  company  employed  one  half  its  total  number  of  year  end  employees.

The  cash  position  at  year  end  was  ~$1.6m  ($1.3m  net  of  Trade  Finance  facilities),  operating  cashflow  was  a  -­‐$0.6m  outflow  and  outflows  from  investing  activities  $0.03m.  Operating  cashflow  included  a  Calaghan  Grant  of  $0.2m.  

R&D  for  the  period  was  $1m  or  around  19%  of  revenues  (pcp  $0.8m  or  16%)  mainly  invested  in  improving  Software,  new  inlets,  improving  reliability  and  reducing  instrument  cost.  

FY14  Record  Volumes  and  a  Technical  Profit    Selling  17  instruments  over  the  period  was  a  record  year  and  prior  to  a  one-­‐off  clean-­‐up  of  inventory,  the  company  would  have  reported  a  profit.  Of  the  instruments  sold  75%  were  to  new  customers.  In  May  2013,  the  company  was  recapitalised  to  the  amount  of  $3.5m  via  a  rights  issue  to  repay  debt  and  outstanding  creditors  and  allow  the  company  to  move  forward.  

Revenue  for  the  period  was  up  48%  with  instruments  sales  more  than  doubling  (FY13  8  instruments  were  sold).  Revenues  growth  did  not  match  volume  growth  due  to  a  reduced  sales  price  to  increase  penetration  and  from  a  reduction  in  direct  sales.    

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     15  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

Overheads  were  22%  lower  ($0.7m)  over  the  prior  comparable  period  which  actually  masked  the  true  story  as  a  number  of  costs  were  shifted  from  COGS  to  overhead  meaning  on  a  like  for  like  expenses  were  very  significantly  contained.  

Cost  reductions  included  Staff  Costs,  Finance  Costs  and  Professional  Service  Fees  amongst  others  whilst  Sales  and  Development  Costs  were  higher  to  position  the  company  for  further  growth.  It  was  noted  over  2  years  the  company  had  reduced  cost  of  production  by  40%  through  redesign,  better  negotiation  with  suppliers  and  lower  direct  labour  costs  per  instrument.    

A  higher  focus  on  quality  as  volume  increased  and  errors  in  the  inventory  system  saw  the  company  write  down  inventory  by  ~$0.4m.  Additional  recruitment  to  fix  and  improve  the  business  meant  FY15  labour  costs  would  be  higher.  

For  the  period  on  operating  revenue  of  $4.8m  (total  revenue  $5.0m)  the  company  reported  a  loss  of  $0.3m.  Excluding  inventory  adjustments  and  a  couple  of  technical  accounting  issues,  the  company  would  have  been  modestly  profitable  for  the  period.  

Forecasts  point  to  very  strong  growth  medium  term  Where  previously  the  company  had  very  little  visibility  of  the  sales  pipeline,  it  is  now  developing  better  leading  indicators  of  sales  and  is  reasonably  confident  over  sales  expectations  for  the  next  couple  of  years.  With  an  aspirational  goal  of  $1  billion  revenues,  within  5  years  the  company  expects  to  be  selling  500-­‐1000  units  per  annum  or  at  current  pricing,  generating  $125m-­‐$250m  in  revenues.    

In  addition  the  company  expects  the  services  component  of  revenue  to  increase  as  a  proportion  of  total  revenue.  From  what  is  mainly  support  services  currently,  the  company  has  a  strategy  to  build  out  training  and  consulting  and  believes  total  services  revenue  could  be  greater  than  40%  of  total  revenues  (currently  28%)  within  3  years  time.  

We  have  assumed  the  sale  of  28  units  in  the  current  year  and  understand  around  half  that  volume  was  sold  in  the  1st  half  of  FY17.  FY18  we  assume  the  sale  of  45  units  or  a  61%  growth  in  volumes.  We  think  the  next  two  years  will  be  critical  for  the  company  in  building  its  presence,  credibility  and  brand  allowing  volumes  to  accelerate  further  thereafter  (i.e.  the  “tipping  point”).  Our  5  year  forecast  volumes  for  comparison  with  Managements  expectation  (250-­‐500  units)  is  for  sales  of  173  (FY22)  units  and  our  terminal  year  volumes  (FY26)  664.  Back-­‐working  managements  target  for  $1  billion  of  revenue  and  assuming  28%  was  derived  from  services  provided  would  imply  sales  of  ~2,800  units.  Our  terminal  year  forecast  revenues  are  US$149m  or  just  4%  of  the  current  addressable  market.    

While  the  Company  thinks  Gross  Margins  will  grow  further  as  it  introduces  next  generation  instruments  and  makes  more  sales  through  its  own  distribution  channels,  we  have  been  more  cautious  and  assumed  stable  margins  excepting  those  influenced  by  forecast  movements  in  the  exchange  rate.    

In  line  with  FNZC  estimates,  we  use  a  long-­‐run  NZD:  USD  assumption  of  $0.62.  

Likewise  our  attachment  rate  for  services  revenues  has  been  held  at  the  FY16A  actual  rate  of  28%  of  operating  revenues.  The  company  believes  this  has  plenty  of  upside  and  could  be  more  than  40%  in  the  medium  term  (as  reported  in  the  FY17  interim  report).  However  we  have  included  these  factors  into  a  Bull  Case  scenario  where  all  the  stars  line  up,  something  that  rarely  happens  in  our  experience.  

 

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     16  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

Sales  and  Development  Costs  are  forecast  at  a  ratio  based  on  the  subsequent  year  expected  sales  (i.e.  Revenues  are  lagged  by  1  year  relative  to  the  investment  in  S&D).  This  sees  S&D  investment  increase  year  on  year  at  ~18%  or  from  $2m  FY16  to  $17.4m  in  FY26.  In  the  2nd  half  of  the  current  year  we  forecast  a  large  step-­‐up  in  S&D  costs  as  the  Company  beefs  up  its  Sales  Force  and  looks  to  roll  out  next  generation  technology  next  year.  While  we  forecast  these  costs  to  continue  to  increase,  we  forecast  them  to  decline  as  a  percentage  of  sales  thereafter.  This  investment  may  be  higher  depending  on  the  strategy  the  company  takes,  however  we  would  expect  this  to  be  accompanied  by  higher  margin  (reduced  costs  of  production)  and/or  higher  sales  volumes  provided  an  offset  to  forecast  cash-­‐flows.  

Other  Operating  Expenses  (excluding  Depreciation  and  Amortisation)  are  forecast  to  increase  by  a  ratio  based  on  the  current  year  expected  sales.  This  sees  Opex  increase  year  on  year  at  ~6%  from  $0.7m  FY16  to  $1.7m  in  FY26.  

Total  expenses  are  expected  to  increase  at  a  CAGR  of  18%  over  the  forecast  period  or  from  $2.8m  FY16  to  $19.1m  FY26.  

We  have  not  forecast  any  dividends  being  paid  over  the  forecast  period  as  we  expect  the  company  will  take  further  value  accreting  opportunities  as  they  present.  

Forecasts  

 

Syft%Income%Statement%($000)Year%to%31%MarchSYFT%RevenuesServices%RevenueRental%IncomeTotal%Operating%RevenueTotal%COGSTotal%Gross%MarginNon%operating%incomeOperating%Expenses%Total%EBITDADepreciationAmortisationEBITFinance%Costs%(Revenues)PBTTaxReported%NPATNon%recurring%itemsUnderlying%NPAT

% %2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F3,803 4,323 6,468 10,911 16,186 22,6611,480 1,688 2,515 4,243 6,295 8,813

6 50 50 50 50 505,289 6,061 9,033 15,204 22,531 31,5232,659 2,417 3,828 6,202 8,805 12,3072,630 3,644 5,205 9,002 13,726 19,216319 541 326 326 326 326

2,404 2,756 5,012 4,968 5,863 6,911545 1,429 519 4,360 8,189 12,63177 85 85 85 85 858 14 14 14 14 14

460 1,330 420 4,261 8,090 12,532L16 L32 L59 L92 L222 L470476 1,362 479 4,352 8,312 13,0020 0 0 0 0 0

476 1,362 479 4,352 8,312 13,0020 0 0 0 0 0

476 1,362 479 4,352 8,312 13,002EPS%cUnderlying%EPS%cDividend%per%share%cPayout%RatioNet%Debt/EBITDA%(X)EBITDA%Margin%(%)Gross%Margin%%Revenue%Growth

0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.20.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.00 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0%L2.31 L1.5 L3.4 L0.99 L1.28 L1.6510% 24% 6% 29% 36% 40%50% 60% 58% 59% 61% 61%5% 14% 50% 69% 48% 40%

Source:(Company(data,(estimatesSource:(Company(data,(estimates

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     17  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SYFT%Cashflow%StatementCash%Flow%AnalysisEBITDANet$Working$CapitalOperating%CashflowNet$InterestTax$PaidOtherFree%CashflowMaintenance$CapexExpansion$CapexIntangiblesDivestmentsInvestmentsInvesting%CashflowDistributable%CashflowGross$DividendsMinority$interests/$OtherEquity$Issues/RedemptionsChange%in%Net%DebtOpening%CashChangeClosing$CashSource:(Company(data,(estimates

2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

545 1,429 519 4,360 8,189 12,631E108 E228 E860 E1,810 E2,149 E2,589437 1,201 L341 2,550 6,040 10,04216 32 59 92 222 4705 0 0 0 0 0

99 0 0 0 0 0557 1,233 L281 2,641 6,262 10,513E35 E290 E85 E85 E85 E850 0 0 0 0 00 E34 E20 E20 E20 E200 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0

L35 L324 L105 L105 L105 L105522 909 L386 2,536 6,157 10,4080 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0

522 909 L386 2,536 6,157 10,408737 1,259 2,168 1,782 4,318 10,475522 909 E386 2,536 6,157 10,408

1,259 2,168 1,782 4,318 10,475 20,883Source:(Company(data,(estimates

WDT$Balance$SheetYear$to$31$MarchCashReceivablesInventoriesOther2CurrentPlant2and2EquipmentIntangiblesDeferred2TaxTotal$AssetsPayablesOtherTerm2LiabilitiesTotal$LiabilitiesNet2Equity

2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F1,58022222222 2,48922222222 2,10322222222 4,63922222222 10,796222222 21,2042222221,26022222222 1,43222222222 2,14322222222 3,61522222222 5,36322222222 7,443222222221,02122222222 1,20422222222 1,69922222222 2,81922222222 4,15022222222 5,78222222222

292222222222222 292222222222222 292222222222222 292222222222222 292222222222222 29222222222222211322222222222 31822222222222 31822222222222 31822222222222 31822222222222 31822222222222122222222222222 322222222222222 382222222222222 442222222222222 502222222222222 562222222222222M222222222222 M222222222222 M222222222222 M222222222222 M222222222222 M222222222222

4,015$$$$$$$$ 5,505$$$$$$$$ 6,330$$$$$$$$ 11,465$$$$$$ 20,705$$$$$$ 34,832$$$$$$71322222222222 84122222222222 1,18722222222 1,96922222222 2,89822222222 4,02222222222M222222222222 M222222222222 M222222222222 M222222222222 M222222222222 M22222222222232122222222222 32122222222222 32122222222222 32122222222222 32122222222222 32122222222222

1,034$$$$$$$$ 1,162$$$$$$$$ 1,508$$$$$$$$ 2,290$$$$$$$$ 3,219$$$$$$$$ 4,343$$$$$$$$2,98122222222 4,34322222222 4,82222222222 9,17522222222 17,487222222 30,489222222

Book$Value$Per$Share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     18  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

Forecasts  in  Pictures    

   Valuation  Unsurprisingly  valuation  is  strongly  dependent  on  volume  growth  and  margin,  attachment  rates  for  services  and  to  a  lesser  extent  exchange  rates.    

 

   

 

Forecast)Revenue)Track)($000) Forecast)Gross)Margin)Track)(%)2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F

12,631 19,069 28,342 41,634 60,608 87,60940% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52%

2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F31,523 44,113 61,738 86,413 120,958 169,32119,216 26,903 37,664 52,730 73,822 103,35112,532 18,970 28,243 41,535 60,509 87,510

2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F12,307 17,210 24,073 33,683 47,136 65,9706,911 8,160 9,648 11,422 13,540 16,068

Source:(EAL(Estimates Source:(EAL(Estimates

Number)of)Instruments)Sold EBITDA)and)EBITDA)Margins

Source:(Company;(Eastbourne(Advisory(Estimates Source:(Company;(Eastbourne(Advisory(Estimates

Stacked)Profitability)$000 COGS)and)OPEX)$000

.

Source:(marketsandmarketsSource;(MarketsAndMarkets

Global.Energy.Efficient.Motors.Low.HP.By.Geography.US$bn.(Refridge)

Source:(Company;(Eastbourne(Advisory(Estimates Source:(Company;(Eastbourne(Advisory(Estimates

0.

50000.

100000.

150000.

200000.

2013A.

2014A.

2015A.

2016A.

2017F.

2018F.

2019F.

2020F.

2021F.

2022F.

2023F.

2024F.

2025F.

Global)Revenues)$000)

SyO.Global.Revenues.($000).

CAGR.xx%.

0.

100.

200.

300.

400.

500.

2013A.

2014A.

2015A.

2016A.

2017F.

2018F.

2019F.

2020F.

2021F.

2022F.

2023F.

2024F.

2025F.

Number)of)Machines)Sold)Per)Year)

Number.of.Machines.Sold.

30%.

35%.

40%.

45%.

50%.

55%.

60%.

65%.

2013A.

2014A.

2015A.

2016A.

2017F.

2018F.

2019F.

2020F.

2021F.

2022F.

2023F.

2024F.

2025F.

)Gross)Margin)%)

SyO.Gross.Margin.%.

V60%.

V40%.

V20%.

0%.

20%.

40%.

60%.

V5,000.

15,000.

35,000.

55,000.

75,000.

95,000.2013A.

2014A.

2015A.

2016A.

2017F.

2018F.

2019F.

2020F.

2021F.

2022F.

2023F.

2024F.

2025F.

EBITDA)$000)and)EBITDA)Margins)

EBITDA.Margin.$000. EBITDA.Margin.%.

0.50,000.100,000.150,000.200,000.250,000.300,000.350,000.400,000.

2013A.

2014A.

2015A.

2016A.

2017F.

2018F.

2019F.

2020F.

2021F.

2022F.

2023F.

2024F.

2025F.

Profitability)$000)

EBIT. Gross.Margin. Revenue.

0.10,000.20,000.30,000.40,000.50,000.60,000.70,000.80,000.90,000.

2013A.

2014A.

2015A.

2016A.

2017F.

2018F.

2019F.

2020F.

2021F.

2022F.

2023F.

2024F.

2025F.

Profitability)$000)

COGS.. OPEX..

Sensitivities( Syft(Gross(Margin

0.12 52.50% 55.00% 57.50% 60.00% 62.50% 65.00% 67.50%Syft(Growth((Volume) 10.0% 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04

20.0% 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.0630.0% 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.0940.0% 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.1350.0% 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.2060.0% 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.30 0.3170.0% 0.35 0.37 0.39 0.41 0.43 0.45 0.46

Source:(estimates

Sensitivities( Syft(Volumes((Growth)

( 0.12 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00%Services(as(a(%(of(Sales 13.0% 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.20 0.30

18.0% 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.14 0.22 0.3323.0% 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.16 0.24 0.3728.0% 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.18 0.27 0.4133.0% 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.13 0.20 0.30 0.4538.0% 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.15 0.22 0.33 0.5043.0% 0.05 0.07 0.11 0.16 0.25 0.38 0.56

Source:(estimates

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     19  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

Our  Base  Case  DCF  Valuation  is  11.5c,  which  assumes  40%  volume  growth  off  a  very  low  base  and  stable  growth  margins.  

Our  forecast  for  Profit  Before  Tax  FY17  is  $0.4m  after  heavily  loading  the  back  end  of  FY17  with  additional  S&D  investment  (more  people,  new  product  development  and  increased  marketing)  and  therefore  see  FY17  as  an  anomaly.  Applying  the  New  Zealand  median  FY18  P/E  multiple  of  18.3X  (calendarised  to  March)  would  yield  an  equity  value  of  $79.6m  implying  at  the  current  price,  an  investor  is  less  than  nothing  for  the  growth  optionality  thereafter  (we  acknowledge  our  forecasts  have  significant  risk  inherent  both  to  the  upside  and  downside).  

The  following  table  shows  implied  multiples  at  both  the  current  share  price  and  at  valuation.  At  the  current  share  price  appears  relatively  cheap  FY18  and  also  very  reasonably  priced  at  valuation  in  the  year  following  based  on  our  forecasts.  

 Comparable  Company  Multiples  (see  Appendix  2)  While  many  of  the  companies  contained  in  the  appendix  are  much  larger  and  more  mature  than  SYFT,  they  do  demonstrate  the  scale  and  profitability  of  the  industry.    

Key  Risks  The  market  is  large  enough  and  SYFT  have  shown  it  has  a  successful  formula  and  there  does  not  appear  to  be  any  competitive  technology  in  market  likely  to  supersede  SYFT  technology  (based  on  high  barriers  to  entry)  presenting  SYFT  with  two  2  options;  

1. Take  the  conservative  option  and  grow  within  its  current  resources;  2. Spend   a   greater   amount   of   Sales   and   Marketing   and   Development   and   grow  

significantly  faster.    While  the  company  have  shown  through  success  to  date  that   it  has  the  right  formula,  the  lumpy  nature  of  instrument  sales  makes  cash  reserves  an  important  safety  factor  if  it  follows  the  second  option  and  would  potentially  require  further  capital.  

Valuation)metricsAt Share Price 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F EV/EBITDA 44.0 121.1 14.4 7.7 5.0EV/EBITA 47.3 149.6 14.8 7.8 5.0P/E 47.7 135.6 14.9 7.8 5.0At Base Case Scenario EV/EBITDA 86.0 236.7 28.2 15.0 9.7EV/EBITA 92.4 292.5 28.8 15.2 9.8P/E 91.8 260.9 28.7 15.0 9.6Source: EAL estimates

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     20  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SWOT%AnalysisStrengths WeaknessesStrong'culture'of'innovation Relatively'small'scale'relative'to'competitorsLeading'edge'products'in'market Sales'currently'lumpyProduct'volume'and'revenue'growth'currently'very'strong Not'well'capitalised'to'fund'high'growthStrong''management'and'work'place'culture Breadth'of'product'portfolioHigh'margin'business'with'little'near'term'risk'of'erosion Considerable'currency'risk'with'most'product'sold'offshoreGood'relationships'with'large'bluechip'clients 'Reasonable'barriers'to'entry'(cost'of'development'and'"smarts") 'Opportunities ThreatsNew'Markets'available'unable'to'be'fulfilled'by'competitors Limited'formalised'IPOnly'have'small'market'share'in'very''large'markets Fragmented'market'with'well'resourced'competitorsSome'opportunity'to'improve'margins Competitors'likely'to'try'to'emulate'technologyOpportunities'to'develop'adjacent'products 'Further'strengthen'relationships'with'Blue'Chip'customers 'New'channel'development'opportunities'(selling'direct)'''

Source:(Company,(Eastbourne(Advisory(Limited

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     21  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

Appendix  1-­‐  Key  People  and  Major  Shareholders  

Directors  The  Hon.  Ruth  Richardson  Ruth  was  instrumental  for  a  number  major  reforms  of  the  New  Zealand  economy  as  Minister  of  Finance  from  1990  to  1993.  Since  the  Ruth  established  her  own  consultancy  helping  many  countries  implement  reform  initiatives.  Ruth  is  also  Chairman  of  Jade  Software  Corporation,  The  Merino  Company  Limited  and  a  Director  of  Synlait  Milk  Limited  and  the  Bank  of  China  (NZ)  Limited.  

Michael  Bushell  Michael  and  his  family  are  foundation  Shareholders.  Michael  has  worked  in  Corporate  and  Commercial  banking  and  finance  for  37  years  the  last  12  as  a  partner  in  a  private  finance  company  specialising  in  working  capital  Pacific  Invoice  Finance  that  supported  SYFT  until  31  March  2013.  Michael  was  part  of  an  independent  advisory  to  SYFT  set  up  in  April  2011.  

Richard  Coleman  Richard  is  a  partner  at  Koau  Capital  Partners  Limited  who  specialise  in  sourcing,  structuring,  funding  and  managing  assets  within  the  Maori  commercial  sector.  Prior  to  Koau,  Richard  spent  15  years  within  the  Ngai  Tahu  commercial  group  in  a  variety  of  roles  including  Group  Investment  Manager  of  Ngai  Tahu  Holdings  (the  parent  to  its  property,  seafood,  tourism  and  private  equity  arms)  and  latterly  Chief  Executive  of  Ngai  Tahu  Seafood.  

CEO  Douglas  Hastie  Doug  graduated  from  Auckland  University  with  an  engineering  degree  and  followed  that  up  with  an  MBA  from  Yale  and  two  years  traded  equities  for  Goldman  Sachs  in  New  York.  Once  back  in  New  Zealand,  Doug  established  Temple  Consultancy  Group  and  Chanui,  a  branded  tea  and  coffee  company.  Doug  has  a  particular  strength  in  sales  and  believes  many  New  Zealand  Companies  while  very  innovative,  are  weaker  at  commercialising  technology.  Doug  joined  SYFT  in  2012  and  bought  innovation  and  the  pragmatism  required  to  transform  SYFT  into  a  profitable  high  growth  business.  

     

 

 

 

 

 

Significant)ShareholdersShareholder Number)(m) %)of)shares)on)issueDouglas(Hastie 191.3 14.8%ACC 181.2 14.0%Douglas(Ziffel(and(Smoot((NY)(Limited 145.2 11.2%Whale(Watch(Kaikoura 130.0 10.1%Stephen(John(Collins 66.6 5.2%Opihi(Investments 37.6 2.9%Source:(Companies(Office

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     22  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

Appendix  2  -­‐Key  Competitor  Multiples  and  Forecast  Growth  

 

 Companies  in  the  sector  include;  n Thermo  Fisher  Scientific,  Inc.  (TMO:NYSE.)  n Agilent  Technologies  (A:NYSE.)  n PerkinElmer,  Inc.  (PKI:NYSE.)  n Shimadzu  Corporation  (7701:TOK)  n Waters  Corporation  (WAT:NYSE),  n JASCO,  Inc.  (Private:Japan)  n GL  Sciences,  Inc.  (7705:  TOK)  n Phenomenex,  Inc.  (Private:U.S.)  n Servomex  (owned  by  Spectris    SXS:LSE)  n Siemens  (SIE:ETR)  n ABB  (ABB:STO)  n Emerson  (EMR:NYSE)  n Michell  (Private:UK)  n Orthodyne  (Private)  n Honeywell  gas  detection  (HON:NYSE)  n Pfeiffer  (PFV:ETR)  n Teledyne  (TDY:NYSE)  n Draeger  (DRW3:ETR)      

 

 

Company NameThermo FisherAgilentPerkinElmerShimadzuWatersGL SciencesSpectrisSiemensABBEmersonHoneywell International Inc.Pfeiffer VacuumTeledyne TechDraegerwerk

Market CapDomicile (Local $mn)US 59,969 US 14,828 US 5,675 JP 446,235 US 11,304 JP 8,104 UK 2,451 DE 87,508 CH 45,092 US 32,428 US 84,786 DE 806 US 3,692 DE 1,093

Calendarised P/E31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17

23.4x 20.6x18.5x 16.7x19.9x 18.5x21.4x 19.6x

17.1x 15.7x14.4x 13.3x16.4x 15.0x20.8x 20.8x16.8x 15.7x17.6x 15.3x20.6x 19.4x15.6x 11.7x18.5x 16.9x18.1x 16.2x

Calendarised P/E Calendarised EV / EBIT31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17

17.1x 15.4x15.1x 13.7x

17.7x 17.1x

13.6x 12.4x13.2x 12.2x11.7x 10.7x14.5x 14.3x12.1x 11.5x11.5x 10.1x

11.5x 8.7x13.8x 12.6x13.4x 12.3x

Calendarised EV / EBIT31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17

15.3x 13.9x14.0x 12.6x9.3x 8.5x

15.6x 15.1x

12.0x 11.0x10.9x 10.3x9.0x 8.4x

11.8x 11.6x10.7x 10.2x8.9x 8.2x

6.3x 5.3x11.2x 10.5x10.9x 10.3x

Calendarised EV / EBITDA

Company NameThermo FisherAgilentPerkinElmerShimadzuWatersGL SciencesSpectrisSiemensABBEmersonHoneywell International Inc.Pfeiffer VacuumTeledyne TechDraegerwerk

Source;(Bloomberg

Market CapDomicile (Local $mn)US 59,969 US 14,828 US 5,675 JP 446,235 US 11,304 JP 8,104 UK 2,451 DE 87,508 CH 45,092 US 32,428 US 84,786 DE 806 US 3,692 DE 1,093

Sales Growth (%) Sales CAGR (%)31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 3 Yrs to Dec-17

3.2% 4.7% -12.2%2.4% 4.1% 2.5%0.2% 2.3% 3.2%5.7% 5.3% 4.6%

8.9% 6.9% 5.7%6.3% 7.3% 6.0%

-2.7% 0.6% -4.5%-10.7% -2.7% -15.2%

2.3% 2.9% 0.2%2.4% 6.4% 6.6%

-6.8% 3.1% -2.7%-1.5% 2.3% 2.6%0.8% 3.6% -0.3%2.3% 3.6% 2.5%

Sales Growth (%) EBITDA Growth (%)31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17

9.5% 11.0%5.5% 7.9%5.1% 6.4%8.8% 6.8%

6.3% 8.8%11.8% 9.0%

3.7% 4.4%-10.4% -0.8%

5.3% 6.0%0.6% 9.1%

-5.4% 8.1%33.0% 18.9%

6.2% 8.0%5.4% 8.0%

EBITDA Growth (%)

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     23  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

Limitations and Disclaimer

Eastbourne Advisory Limited is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 466826) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only.

DISCLAIMER Copyright 2015 Eastbourne Advisory Limited (EAL). All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by SYFT Technologies Limited and prepared and issued by EAL for publication. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of EAL at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as EAL’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is notsubject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research EAL has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing.

The information, investment views and recommendations in this document are provided for general information purposes only. To the extent that any such information, views, and recommendations constitute advice, they do not take into account any person’s particular financial situation or goals and, accordingly, do not constitute personalised financial advice under the Financial Advisers Act 2008, nor do they constitute advice of a legal, tax, accounting or other nature to any person. We recommend that recipients seek advice specific to their circumstances from their adviser before making any investment decision or taking any action.

This document does not, and does not attempt to, contain all material or relevant information about the subject company or other matters herein. The information is provided in good faith and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, accurate and complete at the time of preparation, but its accuracy and completeness is not guaranteed (and no warranties or representations, express or implied, are given as to its accuracy or completeness). To the fullest extent permitted by law, no liability or responsibility is accepted for any loss or damage arising out of the use of or reliance on the information provided including without limitation, any loss of profit or any other damage, direct or consequential. Information, opinions and estimates contained herein reflect a judgement at the date of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Eastbourne Advisory Limited is under no obligation to update or keep current any of the information on this document.

All investment involves risk. The bond market is volatile. Bonds carry interest rate risk (as interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa), inflation risk and issuer and credit default risks. Lower quality and unrated debt securities involve a greater risk of default and/or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. The price, value and income derived from investments may fluctuate in that values can go down as well as up and investors may get back less than originally invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance or investment returns. Reference to taxation or the impact of taxation does not constitute tax advice. The levels and bases of taxation may change. The value of any tax reliefs will depend on investors’ circumstances. Investors should consult their tax adviser in order to understand the impact of investment decisions on their tax position. Where an investment is denominated in a foreign currency, changes in rates of exchange may have adverse effect on the value, price or income of the investment. The market in certain investments may be unavailable and/  

 

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EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     24  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.  

§ •  EBIT

1

loss for Q1 of $381k impacted by non-cash amortisation charges and

Page 25: Syft Draft 7 DH · 136.6 47.7 135.6 14.9 7.8 5.0 EV/EBITDA Net(DPS(c Imputation Net(Yield Gross(Yield Source:(Company(data,(estimates 118.0 44.6 121.1 14.5 7.4 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  RESEARCH     7  December  2016  

 EASTBOURNE  ADVISORY  LIMITED     25  Eastbourne  Advisory  Limited  does  not  warrant  the  accuracy  of  any  information  or  forecasts  in  this  report.      Recommendations  may  not  be  appropriate  and  investors  must  consider  their  own  circumstances  and  seek  independent  advice.