synergy in integration - institutional mechanism for managing hydrological extremes, by naseer ahmad...
TRANSCRIPT
TEC GWP
International Workshop
Synergy in Integration
Institutional Mechanism
for
Managing Hydrological Extremes
Naseer Ahmad Gillani
Chief Water / CEO, National Drought Program Planning Commission
Chairman, Pakistan Water Partnership
2
“Water is the driver of Nature”
Leonardo da Vinci
(1452 – 1519)
“O Children of Adam!... Eat and
drink: But waste not by excess, for
God loveth not the wasters.”
Al-Qura’an
WATER IS THE NEXUS
• Water is central to the socio economic
development.
• Food security, poverty reduction,
economic growth, energy production,
human health
4
PRESENTLY IRRIGATED AREAS AND PROPOSED WATER PROJECTS
3.8 MA 44.4 MA TOTAL
0.8 MA 2.2 MA Balochista
n
0.5 MA 2.3 MA NWFP
1.5 MA 33.4 MA Punjab
1.0 MA 6.5 MA Sindh
Ongoin
g
Scheme
s
Presently
Irrigated
Areas
AREA
BALOCHISTAN
SINDH
PUNJAB
Disputed Territory
NWFP
Water Extreme Events: Flood & Drought
SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
Poverty Alleviation
Employment Generation
Human Development Index (HDI)
Management Instruments
● Conflict resolution to manage disputes and
ensure equitable and fair sharing of water.
● Economic instruments – using value and
prices for efficiency and equity.
● Information management and exchange to
improve knowledge for better water
management.
Integration
• Floods and drought
• Extreme value events
• Dry and wet cycles
• Seasonal variability
• Climate change
Synergy in integration
• Meteorology science
• Field measurement
• Satellite
• Remote sensing
• Models
• Predictions
• Impact Reduction
• Recovery
Message
• Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) : Pakistan/Indus Basin to face higher
frequency, severity and aerial coverage of
extreme events of water availability and non-
availability (floods and droughts)
• Recent floods and droughts: our knowledge is
not enough.
• Moving from structural measures to non-structural
software initiatives.
Objective of the Workshop
Policy Influence: Flood and Drought
Management for Food Security
Climate Change Reaches to Pakistan Through Water
Focal Issues with Policy Makers
• Public welfare • Security • National- geographic boundaries
• Food • Energy • Heath
• Scio economic growth • Infrastructure • Trade • Natural resources
Stand alone
Integrated
State
Public
Society
Local
Security ? Dimensions….
• Conflict
• Disturbance
• Law & Order
• Institutional Collapse
• Revolution
• War
Security Horizons
• Scarcity
• Prestige
• Independence
• Sovereignty
• Economics
• Development
• Poverty
• Hunger
• Survival
Impact Factors
• Survival
• MDGs
• PRSP
• Life
Magnitude
Communication strategy
• Droughts cause reduction in growth:
impacts on agricultural production and
livelihood.
• There is not much to combat or de-
accelerate the climate change by Pakistan,
mandatory is : climate change adaptation.
Value of Message
• Reconstruction process requires US$ 10
billion public sector investment and equal
investment by private sector.
• In the absence of predicted expected peak
flows, the time, duration, frequency and
location may cause the investment void.
• Public investment for hydraulic structures for
water augmentation may not provide the
anticipated benefits due to reduced mean
annual flows.
Percentage changes in annual extreme precipitation
Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agricultural GDP
Trends in Flood Damages
• $6 billion annually
• Four-fold increase from early 1900s
• Per Capita Damages increased by more than a factor of 2.5 in the previous century in real dollar terms
1 2 3 4 5 6
1990s
1980s
1970s
1960s
1950s
1940s
1930s
1920s
1910s
BILLIONS (adjusted to 1999 dollars)
$ 2.2
$ 2.0
$ 2.9
$ 2.4
$ 3.4
$ 2.2
$ 4.9
$ 3.3
Need Assessment
Knowledge gaps: Hydrology developed by Linsley
Hydraulic Engineering designs developed
by US System
Hydraulic System Computation Models
produced by Netherland
European Model “SHE”
Pakistan UNESCO Model of rainfall run off
All have to be revisited
Solution specific models to be developed.
Impact
Climate change reaches to Pakistan through
water:
a. Threat to glaciers, water towers
b. Implications of GLOF
c. Changed pattern of monsoon, intensive rains,
flash floods, prolonged droughts.
d. Increased temperature : enhanced crop water
requirements.
e. Cyclones and sea-level changes.
Updating National Water Sector Data
• Water is the primary medium through which climate change will impact people, ecosystems and economies
• Water resources management should therefore be an early focus for adaptation to climate change
• Water resources management does not hold all of the answers to adaptation; a broad range of responses will be needed
• But, water is both part of the problem and an important part of the solution. It is a good place to start
Water, the Primary Medium
Actions Required
1. Evaluation of the existing system
2. Learning from the South Asia
3. Learning from the Global experience
4. Updating existing/create new models
1. Partnership
2. Linkages with Research Institutions
3. Creation of network Institutions providing
cost effective engineering solutions
incorporating software components
Moving Towards Solutions
• Support improved climate information systems
• Integration of climate information into water
resource management planning activities
• Link hydrologists who are looking for practical
and sustainable adaptation solutions – get
them to interact
Some Concrete Suggestions
The Temporal Dimension: Timeframes,
Sequencing and Uncertainty
Focus on:
Strengthening management information, infrastructure
New institutions and Co-operation,
UNESCO, WMO, DHI
Planning and Operations in a Real Time Environment G r o u n d
D a ta
R A I N F A L L
F O R E C A S T S
F O R E C A S T S
S a te l l i t te
D a ta
M I K E 1 1M O D E L L I N G
DSS For Real Time Forecasting
Thanks We don’t deserve
By: Naseer A. Gillani
Chief (Water)