syros seminar_1 11/7-08_dalum1 gsm: a european success story. interaction between major players...

Syros Seminar_1 11/7-08_Dalum 1

GSM: A European Success Story.

Interaction between major players within National Systems of Innovation in a Nordic Perspective (and

an Outsider Perspective on China)

Syros seminar, 11 July 2008

Bent DalumDRUID/IKE and Center for TeleInFrastructure

Department of Business StudiesAalborg University, Denmark

[email protected] - www.business.aau.dk/~bd


Technological life cycles – Mobile Technology. The “Nordic-EU track”: 1

NMT (1G)

GSM (2G)

UMTS (3G)

Performance

Time

Industry


Wireless history – 0G (’landmobile’)

• Major boost during WW2• Boost of non-military applications after WW2• The commercial fleets: maritime radiocommunications• ’Landmobile’: police, firefighters, transport companies

(truck fleets, taxis etc.)• Major companies in landmobile: General Electric,

Motorola (focused entirely of wireless technologies)• Danish Storno (founded 1947): No. 3 producer of

equipment world wide 1960s and 1970s


Wireless history – 1G a US invention, but…

• AT&T introduceed first mobile telephony system in 1946 in St. Louis.

• Bell Labs scientist Ring invented the concept of cellular systems in 1947

• 1971 AT&T, RCA and Motorola filed proposals to use 800 MHz band for cellular systems

• 1983 FCC granted first commercial cellular licenses

• 1983 Ameritech launched first commercial cellular system in Chicago.


Wireless history – 1G the Nordic market became the ’lead user’

• NMT standardization began in 1970 among the Nordic PTOs.

• NMT 450 MHz implemented in Sweden October 1980 and in Denmark, Finland and Norway in early 1981.


Wireless history – 1G (analogue) the various standards

• NMT 450 from 1980 and 900 from appr. 1985• 1993 NMT introduced in 36 countries• AMPS actually introduced in more countries (e.g

Latin America)• But the penetration ratios in the Nordic countries

significantly larger than anywhere else in the world.

• TACS in the UK and C-450 in West Germany


Wireless history – 2G (digital) the various standards

• GSM from 1992: an EU effort. NMT ’copied’ - as an institution - and enlarged to the entire EU. ETSI formed in 1988.

• GSM: the world winner (Ericsson and Nokia). Operated in 103 countries already in 1996.

• D-AMPS (Motorola and AT&T) and CDMA (Qualcomm) in the US.

• PDC in Japan.


Wireless history – 2G a ’family’ of ETSI standards

• GSM 900 and GSM 1800 (called DCS 1800)• DECT = cordless phones. Never a breakthrough

in integration of GSM and DECT, although this will fulfill evident user needs.

• TETRA: a ’public, but closed’ system for police, firefighters, ambulances etc.

• ERMES: paging


Wireless history – 2.5G

• GPRS: always on; makes WAP possible, higher transmission speed

• EDGE: makes transmission in the 50-100 Kbit within reach

• GRPS and EDGE are ’extensions’ of the existing GSM networks

• EDGE is growing fast in the US GSM market


Wireless history – 3G not a world standard

• IMT2000 a great ITU vision but did not succeed

• ETSI decision in January 1998 on WCDMA = UMTS. The 3GPP group.

• CDMA2000 Qualcomm. 3GPP2• TD-SCDMA China?• 3,5G HSPA


WCDMA-HSPA Key Facts (GSA March 08)

• 211 commercial WCDMA operators in 91 countries

• WCDMA technology in use by over 72% of 293 commercial 3G operators

• Over 179 million WCDMA subscribers (Q4 07); 6.9 million monthly growth in 2H 07

• Over 62% of commercial HSDPA operators support 3.6 Mbps peak or higher

• Over 1.1 billion GSM & WCDMA-HSDPA subscribers in HSDPA-enabled networks


The present ‘Turbo 3G’ hype & 4G

• 3.5G (‘Turbo 3G’) is being rolled-out massively world-wide

• Turbo 3G = “The wireless Internet” or “wireles broadband”, i.e. after some 7-8 years 3G can finally deliver the hype-dreams from 1999/2000

• AT&T, Vodafone, Verizon and China Mobile gave a joint announcement of 4G = LTE of the WCDMA technology in early 2008.

• Where is a 4G version of TD-SCDMA in this pattern?


Technological life cycles – Mobile Technology. The “Nordic-EU track”: 2


China (1)

• 3G not launched yet. Probably three versions: WCDMA, CDMA2000 and TD-CDMA

• China Mobile: the largest wireless operator in the world measured by subscribers. Vodafone is the largest by revenue and a minority shareholder in China Mobile

• Huawei has leapfrogged into the global “Premier League”. Recently No. 3 in wireless infrastructure, only surpassed by Ericsson and Nokia Siemens. ZTE also a strong player

• Datang is the TD-SCDMA specialist, not Huawei and ZTE (?)


China (2)

• Will the postponement of 3G potentially dampen the growth of such companies as Huawei and ZTE?

• Will a 4G version of TD-SCDMA be compatible with WCDMA-LTE?

• In short, the entire wireless world is discussing whether China will become a superpower in wireless: in consumption as well as in R&D and technology or ‘just’ a very big player?

syros seminar_1 11/7-08_dalum1 gsm: a european success story. interaction between major players...

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