system design & management - mit sdm · 2020. 3. 25. · donny holaschutz sdm 2010. agenda •...

system design &

management

Renewable Energy Integration

Opportunities & Challenges in Chile

Jorge Moreno SDM 2011

Donny Holaschutz SDM 2010

Agenda

• Trends in Wind & Solar Integration in Chile

• Emerging Dynamics in the Power System

– Changes in the Net Load

– Regionalization of Power System Dynamics

– New Modes of Operations of Existing Units

– Emerging Socio-Technical Constraints

– Real Time Deviations from the Day Ahead Plan

– Challenges to Operations of Reserves

– The Interactions between Carbon Policy & the Power Market

• Opportunities to Utilize Existing Flexibility & Encourage Investment in New Flexibility

2

Agenda











3

Chile has been a Leader in Integration of

Renewable Energy

4

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GW

Solar Installed Capacity*

Chile

Rest of South

America &

Central

America

Country

% Percentage of Solar

& Wind Generated

(2016)*

Denmark 44.6%

Lithuania 27.3%

Spain 22.8%

Portugal 22.0%

Ireland 20.2%

Germany 17.8%

Greece 17.1%

Italy 14.2%

United Kingdom 14.1%

Romania 13.2%

Belgium 9.9%

Sweden 9.9%

Austria 9.2%

Netherlands 8.3%

Australia 7.9%

Poland 7.6%

US 6.6%

Turkey 6.3%

Chile 6.3%

*BP Statistical Review of World Energy

Chile has been a Leader in Integration of

Renewable Energy

5

Country

% Percentage of Solar

& Wind Generated

(2016)*

Denmark 44.6%

Lithuania 27.3%

Spain 22.8%

Portugal 22.0%

Ireland 20.2%

Germany 17.8%

Greece 17.1%

Italy 14.2%

United Kingdom 14.1%

Romania 13.2%

Belgium 9.9%

Sweden 9.9%

Austria 9.2%

Netherlands 8.3%

Australia 7.9%

Poland 7.6%

US 6.6%

Turkey 6.3%

Chile 6.3%

Chile Exceded

10%

in 2017

*BP Statistical Review of World Energy

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

% o

f W

ind &

Sola

r E

nerg

y G

enera

ted

Month

2017

High Energy Prices & Opportunities to Sign

PPAs have Driven Integration

6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Ave

rage

Off

ere

d P

rice

($

US

D/M

Wh

)

Regulated Client Auctions

En

erg

y C

on

tra

cte

d (

GW

h)

Block Scheme

Introduced

Most New Projects

Associated

to Winning Bids are

Wind or Solar

Overview on the Chilean National Electricity

System: Current Regional Dynamics

7

Primarily Thermal Primarily Hydrothermal

Agenda











8

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Ge

ne

ratio

n (

MW

)

Hour

CoalRoR HydroOthersGasReservoir HydroSolarWind

Wind and Solar Integration is Changing the Net Load

9

March 28th, 2018Approximation of Net Load

One-Hour Net Load Ramps Requirements in the System

10

The One-Hour Net Load Ramp Requirement in the System

could double by 2021 and triple by 2026

11

2021

2,750

-2,750

0 MW

Max 1745 MW/hr

Min -1393 MW/hr

Max 2837 MW/hr

Min -2463 MW/hr2026

The Duck Curve does Not Always Apply to Chile

12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Gen

erat

ion

(M

W)

Hours

Net Load

Net Load minus Hydro ReservoirGeneration

Winter

Day

Summer

Day

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Gen

erat

ion

(M

W)

Hours

Net load


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Gen

erat

ion

(M

W)

Hours

Net Load


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Gen

erat

ion

(M

W)

Hours

Net Load


Dry Scenario (2021) Wet Scenario (2021)

In Chile the (Net Load – Hydro Curve) Looks More

like a Penguin from the Patagonia Swimming

13

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Gen

erat

ion

(M

W)

Hours

Net Load


Winter

Day

Summer

Day

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Gen

erat

ion

(M

W)

Hours

Net load


Wet Scenario (2021)

Integration of Solar & Wind will Give Rise to

the “Middle Market”

14

The “Middle Market” has reached 2500 MW and could double o triple in the next ten years

Capacity Needs Are Changing with New Flexibility Needs

Agenda











15

In the North – Wind and Solar Have been

Integrated Rapidly

16

Feb 27, 2018Feb 27, 2016NES-SING and

NES-SIC North

Central Interconnected System (SIC) & Northern Interconnected System (SING)

were connected in November 2017 to create the National Energy System (NES)

17

NES-SING and

NES-SIC North

Regional Net- Load Dynamics: In the North the

Duck Will Rapidly Get Chopped

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

De

ma

nd

-G

en

era

tio

n(M

W)

Hour of Day

Net Load Solar Wind

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

De

ma

nd

-G

ene

ratio

n(M

W)

Hour of Day

Net Load Solar Wind

Winter

Day

Summer

Day

Scenario (2021)

18

High wind generation in zone 1 & 2 coincide with the drop in solar PV production, as well as local peak demand.

As the integration of wind and solar generation increases in the north deviations from the forecasted wind generation in the north could increase the stress on the system in real-time operations.

Agenda











19

Startups Increasing in Gas Units (2017) &

Operations Likely to Continue

20

Kelar on 11/16/2017

Actual

ActualDay Ahead Plan

In a 2026 Scenario with a Carbon Tax of 30 USD/ton, Coal

Plants Stay on Cycling to Minimum Load

21

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

Tim

e a

t M

inim

um

Ou

tpu

t L

eve

l (%

)

Capacity Factor (%)

SING SIC

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ge

ne

ratio

n (

MW

)

Hours

Guacolda (SIC North)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ge

ne

ratio

n (

MW

)

Hours

All units in the SING and the north of the SIC are kept either operating between their minimum stable level and maximum net capacity, or operating constantly at a minimum level to provide reserves.

High Variable Cost Flexible Units have been

Used more than Planned (Oct 2016 - Sept 2017)

22

.

Agenda











23

Coal Plants Affected by Effluent Temperature Limitations in

the North under Strong Niño Conditions in the Pacific Ocean

24

Day Ahead Plan

Actual

NTO2 Unit

UNIT NOV 2016 DEC 2016 JAN 2017 FEB 2017

°C

Effluent Temperature Limitation of Coal Power Plants Coincides

with the Drop of Solar PV Generation and Spinning Reserves

25

Actual

Day Ahead Plan

At 19:11 on Feb 20th 2018 the CTM 1

Unit Reports:

• Limitation Due to High

Temperatures at the Discharge

• States that Generation Capacity

will be Limited to 110 MW

Days with Water

Temperature

Limitations

Defined Local Emissions Limits Can Affect

Power Market Operations

26

Emissions Limits for Existing Units

Fuel Particulate Matter

(MP) mg/Nm3

Sulfur Dioxide

(SO2) mg/Nm3

Nitrous Oxide

(NOx) mg/Nm3

Coal 50 400 500

Liquid 30 30 200

Gas N/A N/A 50

MP & SO2 can exceed the limit 5% of the hours due to (startup, shutdown, and trips)

NOx must meet limit during 70% of the hours operating, including startup periods.

In 2016 gas units exceeded:

• NOx limits for existing units 54%

of the time during startup

In 2016 coal units exceeded:

• PM & SO2 limits for existing units

23% of the time during startup

• NOx for existing units 12% of the

time during startup

NOx Emissions Measurement of a Gas Unit (CCGT)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

mg/N

m3

Generation (MW)

Hora Encendido

En Regimen

Startup Hours

Continuous Operations

Challenges Meeting the Current Standard

At Partial Load & During Startup

*Ministry of Energy 2017

Limitations can Affect Power Market Operations

27


Limitations can Affect Power Market Operations

28

CTTAR Coal Unit – July 11th, 2017

Day Ahead Plan

Actual

Problems with SO2 mitigations

equipment start at 7:44 am At 11:25 am it reports that unit will

shut down for high emissions and

problems with SO2 mitigations

equipment


Agenda











29

Dynamics of 3-13-2018 in the North part of

the SEN

30

Hour of Day Hour of Day Hour of Day

Planned

Actual

Marginal Costs Reached

148 $USD/MWh at 10pm


the SEN

31

Hour of Day Hour of Day Hour of Day

Planned

Actual

Wind and solar generation

398 MW less than expected at 3pm

Coal generation rapidly deviating

reaches 414 MW less than expected at

7pm

32

Solar Generation SING

Solar Generation

SIC North

Actual


the SEN

1 Hour Ramp Manageable Generation SING

1 Hour Ramp Manageable Generation SIC North


the SEN

33

Day Ahead Plan

CTM1 Coal Plant Reports Cooling

Limitation at 9:16pm

Sierra Gorda Wind Farm

Actual

ActualDay Ahead Plan

Actual

Valle de los Vientos Wind Farm

Day Ahead Plan

Marginal Costs

148 $USD/MWh

at 10pm in SING

Variations between the Planned Marginal Costs

(Day Ahead) and the Real in the SING

34

0

50

100

150

200

250

12

89

577

865

115

31

44

11

72

92

01

72

30

52

59

32

88

13

16

93

45

73

74

54

03

34

32

14

60

94

89

75

18

55

47

35

76

16

04

96

33

76

62

56

91

37

20

17

48

9

Ma

rgin

al C

ost (U

SD

/MW

h)

CMg Real CMg Prog

0

50

100

150

200

250

11

18

235

352

469

586

703

820

937

105

41

17

11

28

81

40

51

52

21

63

91

75

61

87

31

99

02

10

72

22

42

34

12

45

82

57

52

69

22

80

92

92

63

04

3

Ma

rgin

al C

ost (U

SD

/MW

h)

CMg Real CMg Prog

Marginal Cost SING (Crucero Busbar)

Pre-Interconnection (Jan 2017 – Nov 2017)

Marginal Cost SING (Crucero Busbar)

Post-Interconnection (Nov 2017-Mar 2018)

Underestimated

Marginal Cost

Overestimated

Marginal Cost

Dynamics of 3-26-2018 in

the North part of the SEN

35

Marginal Costs

Overestimated

ProgrammedReal

Programed SING to SIC

but flowed from SIC to SING

Imports from the SIC

provided flexibility &

lowered marginal cost

between 7pm & Midnight

Hour of Day

Hour of Day

Planned

Actual

Dynamics of 9-23-2017 SIC (Pre-Interconnection)

36

Less Renewables than Expected

Reservoir Hydro & Gas provided Flexibility

Dynamics of 9-23-2017 SIC (Before

Interconnection)

37

Less Renewables than Expected

Reservoir Hydro & Gas provided Flexibility

Agenda











38

Overview of Planned Reserves for Frequency Regulation: PFC (Contingency) + PFC (Up Regulation) + SFC (Up)Case December 2017 (average day)

39

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

MW

Hour

BESS Gas Coal

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

MW

Hour

Gas Hydro Coal

Different reserve providers

in the SIC-Center and SIC-

South.

Competitive advantage of

generators that provide

reserves in different

regions of the NES-SIC.

NES-SING

NES-SIC

PFC: Primary Frequency Control

SCF: Secondary Frequency Control

Recently, the interconnection

(NES-SIC & NES-SING)

allowed the reduction of

reserve requirements for PFC

in the system.

40

Primary

Reserves

Planned Reserves SIC North & SING 3/03/2018

Battery Angamos

Battery Cochrane

PF

C D

ow

n R

egula

tion

(MW

)

PF

C U

p R

egula

tion

(MW

)

PF

C C

ontingency

(MW

)

41

Primary

Reserves

Secondary

Reserves


Battery Angamos

Battery Cochrane

Coal Over Supply

Of Reserves

During the Day

PF

C D

ow

n R

egula

tion

(MW

)

PF

C U

p R

egula

tion

(MW

)

PF

C C

ontingency

(MW

)

SF

C U

p R

egula

tion

(MW

)S

FC

Dow

n R

egula

tion

(MW

)

42

Primary

Reserves

Secondary

Reserves


Battery Angamos

Battery Cochrane

Coal Over Supply

Of Reserves

During the Day

When there is renewable curtailment &

transmission constraints price signal

drops to zero.

SF

C U

p R

egula

tion

(MW

)S

FC

Dow

n R

egula

tion

(MW

)P

FC

Dow

n R

egula

tion

(MW

)

PF

C U

p R

egula

tion

(MW

)

PF

C C

ontingency

(MW

)

43

Primary

Reserves

Secondary

Reserves


Battery Angamos

Battery Cochrane

Reserves Supply

Tightens up

After Sun Hours

PF

C D

ow

n R

egula

tion

(MW

)

PF

C U

p R

egula

tion

(MW

)

PF

C C

ontingency

(MW

)

SF

C U

p R

egula

tion

(MW

)S

FC

Dow

n R

egula

tion

(MW

)

44

Primary

Reserves

Secondary

Reserves


Battery Angamos

Battery Cochrane

Opportunity for

Renewables to Provide

SFC Down Regulation

PF

C D

ow

n R

egula

tion

(MW

)

PF

C U

p R

egula

tion

(MW

)

PF

C C

ontingency

(MW

)

SF

C U

p R

egula

tion

(MW

)S

FC

Dow

n R

egula

tion

(MW

)

Use of More Gas and Diesel than Planned in Day

Ahead Coincide with Tightening of Reserve Supply

45

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Cu

mu

lati

ve H

ou

rly

Dev

iati

on

s (G

Wh

)

Hours

Gas Diesel

October 2016 – September 2017 (SING)

Increases in Wind Capacity Drives New

Ramping and Reserve Requirements

• Projected Variability will Drive Definitions of Reserves

– Scenario for 20-min variability

– Wind generation developed across Chile

46

Wind Data: AWS Truepower

47

If no new flexible

generation projects are

added, increasing spinning

reserve requirements

increases:

1. VRE Curtailment,

2. CO2 Emissions, and

3. Operational Costs

for Medium Hydrological

Conditions

Agenda











48

Effects of Carbon Policy on the Middle Market

49

8760 8760 8760

Dry Scenario (2026)2017

New RoR Projects Get Developed

Increasing the Carbon Price Does Not Have

the Same Effects on the SIC and the SING

50

SEN SING SEN SIC

Flexibility of reservoir hydro & reservoir hydro’s ability to provide reserves allows CO2 price signal

to be more effective in SIC

(Dry Scenarios)

Agenda











51

Integration of Solar & Wind will Give Rise to

the “Middle Market”

52

Capacity requirements are

changing with emerging

flexibility needs

Today, flexibility isn’t being

fully remunerated.

How will Chile keep

integrating more renewable

energy efficiently and

effectively?

Over time, how will Chile

efficiently and effectively

replace its existing

thermoelectric assets with

newer more flexible assets?

Hours

New Modes of Operation Increase Costs for Existing Units

Creates Opportunities for New Technologies

53

Type of Unit Case SummaryTime

Operating (hrs)

Starts Trips

Total Variable O&M (VOM)

Cost* (USD/MWh)

280 MW –

Coal Unit

Case 1 – Plant Operating at Full Load with an

Average Time per Cycle of 1875 hrs7500 Limited 4 2.5

Case 2 – Daily Cycling between technical

minimum and full load.7116 Limited 4 2.6

400 MW -

CCGT Unit

Case 1 - Mostly Full load operating 6000 hrs. 6000 Limited 4 3.2

Case 2 - 150 real starts per year from start to

load following.4000

150 Warm

Starts8 6.1

Case 3 - 300 real starts per year from start to

load following.4000

300 Warm

Starts8 8.8

The Policy Levers to Incentivize Investment into New

Flexibility Options for the System are Intertwined

54

Energy

MarketLong Term

Contracts

Capacity

Market Ancillary

Services

Market

CO2

Policy

Demand

Side

PolicyTX & Dist

Planning

Demand

Environmental

Regulation

Focusing on just improving the parts of the policy independently will not guarantee

improving the performance of the whole

The performance of the electricity system will depend on how the policy levers fit

together not what they achieve separately

55

The improvement of

the performance of the

Electricity System will

not be driven by

pondering about the

future, but rather really

understanding what is

happening today to find

opportunities to

improve the system for

the long term.

Key Areas to Observe to Find

Opportunities for Flexibility:

1. Performance of existing thermoelectric

facilities

2. Variability & deviations from the planned

3. Deviations between actual & expected

economic performance of the system

4. New constraints which emerge as the system

operates

5. The behavior of the “Middle Market” & its

interaction with Environmental restrictions &

CO2 Policy

6. Interactions between energy and operating

reserve services

7. Performance parameters which will be more

relevant to address new challenges such as

satisfying the net-load or improving regional

needs

Upcoming Related Presentations & Paper

56

NEW MARKET INTERACTIONS IN THE CHILEAN ELECTRICITY

SYSTEM WITH HIGH INTEGRATION OF VARIABLE

RENEWABLE ENERGY

Benjamin Maluenda, Lead Analyst at inodú

Jorge Moreno, Partner at inodú

Donny Holaschutz, Partner at inodú

Esteban Gil, Professor at Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María

Teaching Masterclass on Opportunities for Storage in MexicoDonny Holaschutz, Partner at inodu

Presentation of New Methodology to Asses Environmental

Impact Industrial Facilities in Chilean Environmental Impact

Assessment SystemJorge Moreno, Partner at inodú

Donny Holaschutz, Partner at inodu

6th International Congress on

Water Management in Mining

2nd International Congress on

Water in Industrial Processes

May 9-11, 2018 │ Santiago, Chile

Challenges Complying with Emissions Limits in Chile Caused by

New Modes of Operations and High Levels of Renewable

Energy Integration Jorge Moreno, Partner at inodú

Donny Holaschutz, Partner at inodu

Presentation for Opportunities for Renewable Energy in MiningJorge Moreno, Partner at inodu

system design &

management

Renewable Energy Integration

Opportunities & Challenges in Chile

Jorge Moreno SDM 2011

Donny Holaschutz SDM 2010

system design & management - mit sdm · 2020. 3. 25. · donny holaschutz sdm 2010. agenda •...

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