system dynamics and coin modeling v13.ppt

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CAPT Brett Pierson

Warfighting Analysis Division

J8/WAD

A System Dynamics model of the FM 3-24

COIN Manual

Chuck Spinney

Downloaded PPT Brief from http://www.iseesystems.com/community/UserConference/ConferencePresentations.aspx#brettpierson

Chuck Spinney

Chuck Spinney - May 13, 2010 12:59 PM

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Assess the Full Range of Military OperationsAssess the Full Range of Military Operations

• Warfighting analysis – assess proficiency

– Multiple scenarios

– Wide range of variables within scenarios

– Alternative CONOPs

– Alternative campaign objectives

– Force equivalencies/force substitution

– Multiple analytical models

• Other force structure requirements – assess sufficiency

– Day–to–day demands: Forward basing, forward presence,lesser contingencies, homeland defense, theater securitycooperation

– Peak demand of overlapping warfights

– Sustained surge demand of post-hostilities operations

– Force equivalencies/force substitution

• Analysis of Irregular Warfare challenges

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Study Objective

• Senior Leader insights

Methodologies

• Intellectual approach

• Rationale

• Physical assumptions

• Philosophical assumptions

• Tank guidance

• SPG tasks

Tools

• Workgroups

• Mission Analysis

• Data

• Models

• Scenarios

• Metrics

• Wargaming

• Interagency partners

• Senior Leader reviews

• Peer reviews

• Partner nations

Analysis FrameworkAnalysis Framework

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Conventional Campaigns Non-Traditional Campaigns

JICM, ITEM, Thunder, …System Dynamics, Agent-Based Models, Wargames, ….

Comparison of Traditional and Non-Traditional AnalysisComparison of Traditional and Non-Traditional Analysis

Characteristics

Data

Models

Scenarios

Results

Metrics

Structurally complex, limited

geographic focus, kinetic domain,

means are predominately Military

Physics based, authoritative

sources identified, JMEM

(historical, published, formatted)

DoD centric, generally accepted;

historic, repeatable validation

Focused on Phase III Operations,

approved MSFDs (MCOs)

Physical warfight outcomes,

measurable and explainable

“Victory” clearly defined, quickly

understood, well-established

Interactively complex; global focus;

human, social, cognitive domain,

means integrate all elements of

National Power (DIME)

Perishable, culturally relevant, “soft”

aspects, questionable reliability, no-

JMEM equivalent

Expertise outside DoD; exploring non-

DoD models; still in research mode;

structural validation, “useful/credible”

More than Phase III Operations, draft

vignettes, wargames for event list

Identify “High Leverage” areas and

trends; insights on capabilities

“backed-out” and often not DoD

Many on-going efforts to define

“Victory” (JCS J5, SOCOM J3/J5)

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SME and

Theory ExpertsHistoric Analogy

Analytic

Models and

Wargames

Analysis in Irregular Warfare

Uncertain distance with known error Uncertain error with known distance

Efforts to refine the solution risk missing a fleeting opportunity to attack

Triangulation Search in the Physical World Uncertainty Space in the Analytic World

Sensor 1 Sensor 2

Sensor 3

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Why System Dynamics Modeling?

• Characteristics of systems problems include:

– Dynamic—changes over time and inherent system delays

– Tendency to overshoot and crash or oscillate

– Frequent over-reactions that drive exponential growth in costs

– Multiple players, diverse interests

– Interdependencies across borders and across disciplines

– Proposed solutions that appear simple and are usually wrong

– Very difficult to communicate!

• System Dynamics Modeling can add value in several areas. Itprovides a platform for…

– Effectively framing issues and problems.

– Representing the essence of the interdependencies that underlie systemperformance; minimize policy resistance

– Reliably inferring the dynamics associated with a set of initiatives

– Communicating—creating a single “sheet of music” to play

Excerpts from “An Introduction to Dynamic Modeling with STELLA & iThink” Workshop

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System Dynamics Disclaimer

• Various software and consultants being used within DOD

– STELLA / iTHINK – modeling software

– VENSIM – modeling software

– PA Consulting / Boeing / VMASC / MIT – consultants using a mix ofcommercial and proprietary software to develop SD solutions

Excerpts from “An Introduction to Dynamic Modeling with STELLA & iThink” Workshop

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System Dynamics Software

• STELLA / iTHINK – isee systems – Barry Richmond

• Language of stocks and flows, graphics user interface

• Innovator in application to social systems – “STELLA in theclassroom” to study Hamlet in High School

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Building a Simple STELLA Model

Savings account

• Stock – savings

• Flows in – deposits and interest

• Flows out – withdrawals

• Simulation – what is the effect of various interest rates? How about deposits and

withdrawals? Where is my leverage?

Most of the things that concern people are entities that accumulate

or dissipate over time – and we are concerned with trends. Unlike

the simple example above, most don’t have a closed-form solution

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Using a STELLA-Based Presentation

• Begin with a cause and effect relationship diagram

• Expand into a model structure that captures all elements andassigns assumptions about relationships

• “Troubleshoot” model structure and validate against some sort oftruth data…historical data, research, or in this case doctrinaltheory

PotentialFractiousness

of Society

Support forInsurgency

NeutralPopulace

Support for HNGovernment

COIN operations must accomplish three tasks

simultaneously:

• Influence insurgent-minded individuals to adopt a neutral

disposition.

• Influence neutral-minded individuals to adopt a

supportive disposition.

• Retain supportive individuals.

These operations are conducted in an environment where

tensions and hostilities between groups may destabilize a

society and provide opportunities for insurgents

• This environment may suggest courses of action aimed

at reinforcing or widening seams


NeutralPopulace


Economic

Development

Economic

Investment

Coalition

Funding


of Society

• An increase in Coalition funding will influence

economic investment and development.

• A strengthened economy will influence movement

from the insurgent- and neutral-minded groups

toward the supportive group.


NeutralPopulace


Satisfaction with

Essential Services

Expectations for

Essential ServicesEssential

Services

Breakdown of

Essential ServicesDeveloping andRestoring Essential

Services

Time to Develop

Essential Services

EconomicDevelopment

Economic

Investment

CoalitionFunding


of Society

• An increase in Coalition funding will significantly

impact the restoration of essential services.

• Improvements in the provision of essential services

will influence movement from the insurgent- and

neutral-minded groups toward the supportive

group.


NeutralPopulace


Satisfaction withEssential Services

Expectations forEssential ServicesEssential

Services

Breakdown ofEssential ServicesDeveloping and

Restoring EssentialServices

Time to DevelopEssential Services

Governance

Time to Develop

Governance

EconomicDevelopment

Economic

Investment

Available

Workforce

CoalitionFunding

Perceived

Security

Insurgent Acts ofViolence

PsychologicalOperations

Effectiveness

External Material

Support


of Society

A government that is established, recognized, and

that maintains a secure environment is in a position

to

• Send a positive, credible message of success to

the populace.

• Provide an environment that enhances stable

employment of the workforce.

• Persuade insurgents and neutrals to consider

becoming supporters.


NeutralPopulace




Services




Governance

Time to Develop

Governance

EconomicDevelopment

Economic

Investment

Available

Workforce

CoalitionFunding

PerceivedSecurity


Total Force

Density

Host Nation

Force Density

Coalition Force

Density

Appropriate Mix of

Effort and Use of Force


Effectiveness

IntelligenceExternal Material

Support

Host Nation

Security Forces

Time to Develop HNSecurity Forces

Impact of

Illegitimate Actions

Individual Competence,Judgment, and Ability

to Execute

Appropriate

Strategic Emphasis

Understanding andKnowledge of Social

Structures

Insurgent to ForceDensity Ratio


of Society

An appropriate force mix, and correct operational

tempo, timing, and synchronization will have very

significant impacts on

• The restoration of essential services.

• The populace’s perception of security.

• The Government’s and COIN forces’ credibility in

their communications efforts with the populace.


NeutralPopulace




Services




Governance

Time to Develop

Governance

EconomicDevelopment

Economic

Investment

Available

Workforce

CoalitionFunding

PerceivedSecurity


Total ForceDensity

Host NationForce Density

Coalition ForceDensity

Appropriate Mix ofEffort and Use of Force


Effectiveness


Support

Host NationSecurity Forces


Impact ofIllegitimate Actions


to Execute

AppropriateStrategic Emphasis


Structures



of Society


NeutralPopulace




Services




Governance

Time to Develop

Governance

EconomicDevelopment

Economic

Investment

Available

Workforce

CoalitionFunding

PerceivedSecurity


Total ForceDensity





Effectiveness


Support





to Execute



Structures



of Society

The Logical Lines of Operations from FM 3-24

Support for

InsurgencyNeutral

PopulaceSupport for HN

Government



Services




Governance

Time to Develop

Governance

EconomicDevelopment

Economic

Investment

Available

Workforce

CoalitionFunding

Perceived

Security


Total ForceDensity



Appropriate Mix of



Effectiveness


Support





to Execute



Structures



of Society

The Basic Information Ops Loop


NeutralPopulace




Services




Governance

Time to Develop

Governance

EconomicDevelopment

Economic

Investment

Available

Workforce

CoalitionFunding

PerceivedSecurity


Total ForceDensity



Appropriate Mix of



Effectiveness


Support

Host Nation

Security Forces




to Execute



Structures



of Society

The Comprehensive Information Loop


NeutralPopulace




Services




Governance

Time to Develop

Governance

EconomicDevelopment

Economic

Investment

Available

Workforce

CoalitionFunding

Perceived

Security


Total Force

Density

Host Nation

Force Density


Appropriate Mix of



Effectiveness


Support

Host Nation

Security Forces




to Execute



Structures



of Society



NeutralPopulace




Services




Governance

Time to Develop

Governance

Economic

Development

Economic

Investment

Available

Workforce

CoalitionFunding

Perceived

Security


Total ForceDensity



Appropriate Mix of



Effectiveness


Support





to Execute



Structures



of Society


Support for

InsurgencyNeutral


Government



Services




Governance

Time to Develop

Governance

Economic

Development

Economic

Investment

Available

Workforce

CoalitionFunding

Perceived

Security


Total Force

Density

Host Nation

Force Density


Appropriate Mix of



Effectiveness


Support

Host Nation

Security Forces




to Execute



Structures



of Society


Support for

InsurgencyNeutral


Government

Satisfaction with

Essential Services

Expectations for

Essential ServicesEssentialServices




Governance

Time to Develop

Governance

Economic

Development

Economic

Investment

Available

Workforce

CoalitionFunding

Perceived

Security


Total Force

Density

Host Nation

Force Density


Appropriate Mix of



Effectiveness


Support

Host Nation

Security Forces




to Execute



Structures



of Society



NeutralPopulace




Services




Governance

Time to Develop

Governance

EconomicDevelopment

Economic

Investment

Available

Workforce

CoalitionFunding

PerceivedSecurity


Total ForceDensity





Effectiveness


Support





to Execute



Structures



of Society

The Logical Lines of Operations from FM 3-24

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The STELLA Model - InterfacesThe STELLA Model - Interfaces

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The STELLA Model - StructureThe STELLA Model - Structure

Population

Governance

Security

Economic

Development

Essential Services

Host Nation

Security Forces

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The STELLA ModelThe STELLA Model


NeutralPopulace


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Using the Model in Analysis

COA Option – Adjust Mix of Effort and use of Force to focus totally on security

– Technology-driven and reactive cost imposing strategy

– Ignores FM 3-24 recommended effort on non-security LLOs

2:35 PM Wed, Oct 24, 2007

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Months

1:

1:

1:

2:

2:

2:

3:

3:

3:

0

50

100

1: Support for Government 2: Support for Insurgency 3: Neutral

1

1

1

2 2

2

3

3

3

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Months

1:

1:

1:

2:

2:

2:

3:

3:

3:

0

50

100


11 12

2 2

3

3 3

Appropriate mix of effort set to a balanced

focus on all Logical Lines of Operation

All effort focused on Perceived Security and

Host Nation Security Forces, others zero

Waiting to start on the Non-Security LLOs until Security is established is an inherently

flawed and self defeating strategy. The LLOs are too interdependent.

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Optimizing a Solution

7:49 AM Tue, Oct 30, 2007

Untitled

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1.00 31.00 61.00 91.00 121.00

Months

1:

1:

1:

2:

2:

2:

3:

3:

3:

0

50

100


1

1

1

2 2

2

3

3

3

Results with balanced mix of effort on LLOs combined

with slight reduction in External Material Support and

slight reduction in Potential Fractiousness of Society

“One of the most important lessons in Afghanistan and in Iraq is that military

success is not sufficient. Our efforts must also address economic development,

institution building, the rule of law, promoting internal reconciliation, good or at

least decent governance, public services, training and equipping indigenous

security forces, effective, strategic communications, and more.”

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, 29 January 2008

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Coalition Input Coalition Input –– Optimized 3-24 case Optimized 3-24 case

Manning and Funding held sufficient through the entire period

A sustainable peace – we remain involved and remain invested as intervener

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Coalition Input Coalition Input –– Kilcullen case Kilcullen case

Manning and Funding get ramped down as Host Nation capacity increases

A durable peace – one left to thrive as a better version of itself with less cost to us

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Coalition Input Coalition Input –– Ramped up effort case Ramped up effort case

Manning and Funding get ramped up as needed to face crises

No peace – mired in strife at the same cost to us as Kilcullen case over the period

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Coalition Input Coalition Input –– the long slow grind the long slow grind

Eventually the corner is turned – assuming no return to major hostilities

Requires persistent sufficient investment many times longer despite greater losses

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Is It Working?

“..in this agrarian area where date

palms outnumber buildings…”

(Knowledge and Understanding of

Social Structure)

“They are making their

community safe”

(Perceived Security)

“…counter false perceptions…”

(Psychological Operations

Effectiveness)

“…install security among

all tribes, not just Sunni…”

(Potential Fractiousness)

“…the money they receive…”

(Economic Development)

“...they will become members of

the Iraq security Forces.”

(Host Nation Security Force

Development)

“…political infighting…”

(Governance)

“..it is a security program, not

an attempt to create armed

militias…”

(Perceived Security)

“…is distrustful of the

government…”

(Psychological Operations

Effectiveness)

“…he will renew the

contracts…”


“..four IED attacks…”

(Insurgent Acts of Violence)

“…concerned citizens are

being paid…”


(Governance)

Christian Science Monitor – October 2nd 2007: “Violence dropped dramatically”

Credit for success is given to efforts that directly map to FM 3-24

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Contextual Mapping

Contextual Mapping helps metrics

point towards the appropriate LLOs

What can you say about these except

“I hope they start getting greener”

To be useful, metrics need a contextual mapping, which infers a framework

Overall Status

Metric(s) Significant Activities Status/Trend

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Perceived Security

Desired Outcome 3: xxx.xxxx

Overall Status


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Governance


Overall Status


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Essential Services


Overall Status


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Host Nation Security Forces


Overall Status


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Economic Development


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TRADOC Pamphlet 525-5-500

“Commander’s Appreciation and

Campaign Design”

Campaign Design

To access TRADOC Pamphlet 525-5-500 go to: http://www.tradoc.army.mil/tpubs/pamndx.htm

Topic of Army ‘Stand-To’ e-newsletter, 1 Feb 2008

• Commander’s Appreciation

– Need to develop a shared understanding ofcomplex operational problems

– Structured problem framing (and re-framing!)

• Problem structure

– well structured (structurally complex, linear):professionals agree on how to proceed –apply the Science of War

– ill-structured (interactively complex, non-linear): professionals disagree on how tosolve this problem – apply the Art of War

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Science of War

linear phenomena

that can be controlled

professional soldiers

can agree

doctrine, training, and

leader development

Operational Problem(well or medium

structured)

Gap in "State of Affairs"

between what is and what

ought to be

Concern to lessen or a

Military Action to achieve

an end state

Action(s) to be

Taken

professional consensus

and authoritatively

prescribed in doctrine

Art of War

Intuition and Genius

(harmonious combination of

courage, powers of intellect,

and strength of will)

Analysis of the Mission

(breaking it down into specified,

implied, and essential tasks)

Understanding is not a matter of

capturing reality sufficiently correctly,

[it is a matter of] constructing an

interpretation that is sufficiently

useful in dealing with reality

Complex Operational

Problem (unstructured

problem)

Giving a Complex

Problem enough structure

so that further planning

can lead to useful action

easy to control through technical

reduction and a systematic

method-based solution

OperationalDesign

Link near-term

actions to the

strategic aim of the

campaign

OperationalEngineering

Detailed plan for

action (blueprint)

Simultaneously building and

understanding of the problem

through the creation of a

conceptual solution or design

1

2

2) Arranges operations is spaceand time and identifies

capabilities and resources

Agreement on a

Shared Starting

Hypothesis

Commander's Appreciation

1) Seeks to explain the qualitativerelationships embedded within

complex problems

Mutually respectfulcompetition of opposing ideas

(candid and free)

Detailed series of executable

missions that directly affect allies,

adversaries, and the environment

Resolving the natural tension

between the formulation of

strategy and the planning for

its implementation

Operational Art

Campaign plans at each

level should nest in the

same way that tactical

orders do

An iterative process that integrates ends, ways,

and means across the levels of war

Problem framing—and its military use

during a campaign

Reframing as

understanding expands

Commander's Appreciation

and Campaign Design

A System Dynamics View of Campaign Design

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A Framework for Success

Three Completely Different entities – The DoD; The USIP; and Dr. Paul Collier,an Oxford Economist with a lifetime of working aid issues in Africa

Since these disparate groups can agree on the problem statement and solution path,

how are we in the USG working together to operationalize the answer?

Security

Laws and Charters

Trade

Aid

Safe and Secure Environment

Rule of Law

Stable Democracy

Sustainable Economy

Social Well Being

Security

Host Nation Security Force Development

Governance

Economic Development

Essential Services

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The STELLA Model The STELLA Model –– Demo/Questions Demo/Questions


NeutralPopulace


“Success will be less a matter of imposing one’s will and more a function of

shaping behavior of friends, adversaries, and most importantly, the

people in between.”

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, 10 October 2007

“Success will be less a matter of imposing one’s will and more a function of

shaping behavior of friends, adversaries, and most importantly, the

people in between.”

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, 10 October 2007

“You don't kill or capture your way out of an industrial strength

insurgency.”

Gen. David Petraeus, 14 September 2008

system dynamics and coin modeling v13.ppt

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