system for bycatch avoidance in the us sea scallop fishery · 2018. 1. 8. · evaluation of a real...

Evaluationofareal-timecommunicationsystemforbycatchavoidancein

theUSSeaScallopFisheryBrookeWright1,CateO’Keefe2,SteveCadrin1

InternationalFlatfishSymposium16November2017

Saint-MaloO-65

1Univeristy of Massachusetts Dartmouth School for Marine Science and Technology, 836 S Rodney French Blvd, New Bedford, MA 027442Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries, 251 Causeway Street, Suite 400, Boston, MA 02114

[email protected]@brooke_l_wright

Evaluationofareal-timecommunicationsystemfor(flatfish)bycatchavoidancein

theUSSeaScallopFisheryBrookeWright1,CateO’Keefe2,SteveCadrin1

InternationalFlatfishSymposium16November2017

Saint-MaloO-65

1Univeristy of Massachusetts Dartmouth School for Marine Science and Technology, 836 S Rodney French Blvd, New Bedford, MA 027442Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries, 251 Causeway Street, Suite 400, Boston, MA 02114


Acknowledgements

• NortheastFisheriesScienceCenter:• DvoraHart,ChadKeith,Shannah Jaburek,RyanSilva

• Scallopfisheryprogramparticipants• Funding:NOAAFisheriesScallopResearch-Set-Aside

• NewBedford,MA• #1fishingportinUSAforalmost20years

• 2015landingsvaluedover320millionUSD.

USSeaScallopFishery

GeorgesBankYellowtailFlounder

TRAC.2016.GeorgesBankYellowtailFlounder.TRACStatusReport2016/03.

• Uncertainstockassessment• Switchedfrommodel-basedtoempiricalassessment

• Noprojections• Noreferencepoints

• Stockstatusunknown• Resourcestateispoor

FlatfishBycatchManagementHighlights• 1993closedareasonGeorgesBank• 2004 rotationalareamanagement• 2010 wholestocksub-ACLforyellowtail;in-seasonclosurewhenyellowtailACLisreached

• 2011 accountabilitymeasurestotakeeffecttheyearafter anoverageoccurs

• 2012accountabilitymeasuresbycloseareasindifferentmonth(s)• 2013 revisedseasonalclosuresinGBaccessareas

SMASTBycatchAvoidanceProgram

• Voluntaryparticipation• Responsetoin-seasonclosures• Nearreal-timeadvisoriesbasedonfishermen’sdata• Expansionovertime

• 2010- programinception• 2011through2015(annually)- spatialexpansion• 2014- expansiontoincludewindowpaneflounder

Cell: Q# Tows: 6PoundsYellowtail: 55

ProgramImplementation:2010

• 122vessels• 100%scallop• 32%yellowtail

ProgramExpansion:2011



• 253vessels• 81%scallop• 116%GeorgesBankyellowtail• 98%SouthernNewEnglandyellowtail• 77%windowpane


• 258vessels• 62%scallop• 99%GeorgesBankyellowtail• 79%SouthernNewEnglandyellowtail• 115%windowpane

SMASTbycatchavoidanceprogramevaluation• Decreasingparticipationrate• Revieweffectivenessinchangingfishingbehavior

• Evaluatepatternsinprogramdata

• ComparetoNortheastFisheriesObserverProgramdataforvesselsthatdidanddidnotparticipateintheavoidanceprogram

ProgramEvaluationObjectivesandMethods

• TermsofReference• “Evaluateandquantify,totheextentpossible,behavioralchangesandmovementofscallopvesselsasaresultofSMASTbycatchadvisories.”

• “Evaluateandquantify,totheextentpossible,reductionsinbycatchofyellowtailandwindowpaneflounderasaresultofSMASTbycatchadvisories.”

ProgramEvaluationObjectivesandMethods• Wedevelopedloglinear modelstotestforassociationsbetweenfishinglocationandbycatchadvisoryclassification

• ClosedAreaII2011-2014andNantucketLightship2012-2014• DatafromtheSMASTavoidanceprogramandfromNortheastFisheriesObserverProgram(vesselsthatdidanddidnotparticipateintheavoidanceprogram)

• FinalmodelswereselectedbasedonAICanddissimilarityindex.

ProgramEvaluationResultsAvoidance

Program DataObserver Data:

Program ParticipantsObserver Data:

Non-Participants

Closed Area II 2011

Closed Area II 2012

Closed Area II 2014

Nantucket Lightship Closed Area

2012Nantucket Lightship

Closed Area 2013

ProgramEvaluationResults

• BycatchAvoidanceProgramwasmosteffectiveinCAIIinearlyyears• Changingincentivesovertime

• In-seasonclosuresà• AccountabilityMeasuresimplementedinsubsequentfishingyears

• ImplicationsforAccountabilityMeasures• Clarifyobjective(s)whenconsideringalternativeactions

Discussion• SMASTBycatchAvoidanceSystemisnolongeraneffectivetoolforinfluencingfishingbehaviortoavoidbycatchhotspots

• Needtoconsiderincentiveswhendesigningvoluntaryprograms• Changingfromin-seasontosubsequentyearclosuresreducedincentivestovoluntarilyalterfishingbehavior

• Needtoconsidertheobjectiveofmanagementactionsinthedesign• Preventoverfishing,reducebycatch,penalties

Discussion• SMASTBycatchAvoidanceSystemisnolongeraneffectivetoolforinfluencingfishingbehaviortoavoidbycatchhotspots

• Needtoconsiderincentiveswhendesigningvoluntaryprograms• Changingfromin-seasontosubsequentyearclosuresreducedincentivestovoluntarilyalterfishingbehavior

• Needtoconsidertheobjectiveofmanagementactionsinthedesign• Preventoverfishing,reducebycatch,penalties

Thanksforyourattention!QUESTIONS?


Supplementalslides

Avoidance Program Data Observer Data: Program Participants

Observer Data: Non-Participants

Closed Area II

2011

• Firstmonth– derbyfishery;mixedresults

• Sept– Nov:nosignificanthighbycatchareaavoidancebutsignificantpreferenceforlowareasrelativetomediumorunknown

• Noinfoonhighcellsinfirstmonth;mixedavoidanceresultsforlow,medium,andunknown

• Sept– Novsignificanthighbycatchavoidance

• Nosignificantbycatchavoidanceinanyperiod

Closed Area II

2012

• Significanthighbycatchavoidanceandlowbycatchpreference

• Significanthighbycatchavoidanceinmostperiods,significantlowbycatchpreferencemoreoftenthannot

• SignificanthighbycatchavoidancerelativetolowinAugust

• Significanthighrelativetounknownbycatchinfirsttwomonths

Closed Area II

2014

• Significantpreferenceforhighrelativetomedium

• Significanthighbycatchavoidanceacrossallperiods

• Significanthighbycatchavoidancerelativetounknown

Avoidance Program Data Observer Data: Program Participants

Observer Data: Non-Participants

Nantucket Lightship

Closed Area 2012

• Significanthighbycatchavoidancerelativetolowandpreferenceforlowareasrelativetoall

• Significanthighbycatchpreferencerelativetomediumorunknown

• Significanthighbycatchavoidancerelativetolowandmediumandsignificantpreferenceforlowbycatchrelativetounknownacrossalltimeperiods

• Significantpreferenceforhighrelativetounknown

• Significantlowbycatchpreferenceinallperiods

• Nodataonhighbycatchareas

Nantucket Lightship

Closed Area2013

• Significanthighavoidancerelativetomedium

• Significanthighpreferencerelativetounknown

• Significantavoidanceofhighbycatchrelativetounknown

• Significanthighbycatchpreferencerelativetounknownareas

Evaluation: Model Structure• Loglinear models:

• log 𝜇%&' = 𝜆 + 𝜆%+ + 𝜆&, + 𝜆'- + 𝜆%&+, + 𝜆&',- + 𝜆%'+- + 𝜆%&'+,-

• Superscripts(notexponents)X,Y,andZarecategories(source,timeperiod,classification)

• Subscriptsi,j,andkareindicesforthelevelofeachcategory(e.g.High,Medium,Low)

• μ isthemodelestimatedfrequencyincellijk

• Parametersrelatetooddsratios(θ)

• log 𝜃%&(') = log 1234/12,378,41278,34/1278,378,4

=𝜆%,&+, + 𝜆%9:,&9:+, − 𝜆%,&9:+, − 𝜆%9:,&+,

Agresti,2013

Evaluation: Model Selection Methods

Area Year Model df AIC DissimilarityIndex

CAII 2012 Source*Class 8 12328 0.39CAII 2012 Source*Class +Period 13 2685 0.13CAII 2012 Source*Class+Class*Period 28 1177 0.08CAII 2012 Source*Class+Class*Period+Source*Period 33 886 0.05CAII 2012 SCP 48 394 0.00

Evaluation: Results• Interpret three-way interaction

• for each period: odds ratio of source and classification

• for each classification: odds ratio of source and period

• for each source: odds ratio of period and classification

𝑯𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒂𝒅𝒗𝒊𝒔𝒐𝒓𝒚𝑯𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒓𝒆𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒕

𝑳𝒐𝒘𝒂𝒅𝒗𝒊𝒔𝒐𝒓𝒚𝑳𝒐𝒘𝒓𝒆𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒕

M

Table6.Oddsratiosforpreferredmodelsofavoidanceprogramdata(seetextfordetails).

CAII2012:Source*Class*Period

PeriodH-adv *L-rep H-adv*M-rep H-adv *U-rep L-adv*M-rep L-adv*U-rep M-adv *U-repH-rep*L-adv H-rep*M-adv H-rep*U-adv L-rep*M-adv L-rep*U-adv M-rep*U-adv

1 1.41(1.11,1.79)* 0.81(0.62,1.06) 0.21(0.16,0.27)* 0.57(0.49,0.68)* 0.15(0.13,0.17)* 0.26(0.21,0.31)*2 6.81(4.69,9.9)* 9.31(6.21,13.94)* 0.37(0.19,0.69)* 1.37(1.07,1.75)* 0.05(0.03,0.09)* 0.04(0.02,0.07)*3 42.00(21.7,81.32)* 82.91(33.61,204.5)* 12.26(5.81,25.87)* 1.97(1.04,3.76)* 0.29(0.2,0.43)* 0.15(0.07,0.31)*4 3.85(2.76,5.38)* 1.78(0.88,3.58) 0.10(0.02,0.42)* 0.46(0.24,0.87)* 0.03(0.01,0.11)* 0.06(0.01,0.26)*5 72.35(17.29,302.66)* 60.79(13.26,278.64)* NA 0.84(0.47,1.49) NA NA6 1.49(0.78,2.86) 3.34(1.4,7.95)* 3.40(1.81,6.39)* 2.23(1.09,4.58)* 2.27(1.52,3.4)* 1.02(0.5,2.05)

NLCA2012:Source*Class+Class*Period+Source*Period

PeriodH-adv*L-rep H-adv*M-rep H-adv*U-rep L-adv *M-rep L-adv *U-rep M-adv*U-repH-rep*L-adv H-rep*M-adv H-rep*U-adv L-rep*M-adv L-rep*U-adv M-rep*U-adv

1 NA NA NA NA 0.05(0.11,0.14)* NA2 1.16(1.15,2.67)* 0.26(0.2,0.74)* 0.06(0.14,0.33)* 0.22(0.13,0.37)* 0.05(0.11,0.14)* 0.24(0.33,0.95)*3 1.16(1.15,2.67)* 0.26(0.2,0.74)* 0.06(0.14,0.33)* 0.22(0.13,0.37)* 0.05(0.11,0.14)* 0.24(0.33,0.95)*4 NA NA NA 0.22(0.13,0.37)* 0.05(0.11,0.14)* 0.25(0.33,0.95)*

𝒂𝒅𝒗𝒊𝒔𝒐𝒓𝒚𝒓𝒆𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒕

𝒂𝒅𝒗𝒊𝒔𝒐𝒓𝒚𝒓𝒆𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒕

N

Results:ConditionalPresence

• Fullmodel:• maineffects:area,latitude,longitude,bottom

temperature,depth,zenith,year,season• eightinteractioneffects

• Simplifiedmodel:• maineffects:longitudeandlatitude• interactionseffects:longitudeandlatitude;

longitudeandmonth;latitudeandmonth;andlatitude,longitude,andmonth

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system for bycatch avoidance in the us sea scallop fishery · 2018. 1. 8. · evaluation of a real...

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