SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

Brazil

Roberto Luís Olinto RamosHead of National Accounts Co-ordination

roberto.olinto@ibge.gov.br

October, 2007

Directorate of Surveys

Population

186,777,562

Area

8,514,876 Km2

27 states

5,564 municipalities

IBGE

27 unities (each state)

532 agencies

Doing statistics and national accounts in Brazil

The Brazilian National Statistical System

Coordination(IBGE)

Statistics of National scope(IBGE)

Statistics of Regional scope Administrative Registers(State Statistics Agencies (Ministries / Secretariats / OREs) Central Bank

Articulated database(Regional/Sectorial/National)

Institutional organization

Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics

Directorate of Surveys

SNA - Latin-American organization

Statistical offices – Brazil, Argentina, Colombia Bolívia Peru,Cuba, Mexico

Central Banks – Uruguay, Paraguay,Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Republica Dominicana, Nicaragua .....

Directorate of Surveys Organogram

Directorate of Surveys

Coordination of Economic Statisticsand Classifications

Management ofBusiness Register

Management ofDissemination

Management ofPlanning and

Budget

PopulationCensus

Committee

TechnicalManagementof Population

Census

TechnicalManagement

of AgriculturalCensus

Coordinationof PricesIndexes

Coordinationof Mining andManufacturing

Surveys

Coordinationof Methodsand Quality

Coordinationof Population

and SocialIndicators

Coordinationof Household

Surveys

Coordinationof NationalAccounts

Coordinationof Servicesand TradeSurveys

Coordinationof Agriculture

Surveys

National Accounts in BrazilSome history

Getúlio Vargas Foundation / IBGE

Four accounts

Current prices and constant prices with a fixed year

1947 - 1989

“benchmark” each five years (0 and 5) with the Agriculture and Industry Census

Values extrapolated with volume and price indices

Current values for some activities (Government, Central Bank etc.)

December 1997

SNA based on SNA (1993)

SUT – IEA

Current prices and previous year

1990 - 2003

SUT – 80 products and 43 activities

IEA – Institutional Sectors

Values extrapolated with volume and price indices

Current values for some activities (Government, Central Bank etc.)

1990

•Crash in the IBGE Budget

•Last Census 1985

•No annual economic statistics => no benchmark

1995

Redefinition of economic statistics

Economic Statistics• New model (since 1995)

• Basis of the new system– Business Register - CEMPRE

– National Classification of Economic Activities

• Annual Surveys

• Monthly Surveys

Social and demographics Economics

Demographics Census Population Count Business Register Agricultural Census

Households Enterprises or Establishment

Annual: PIA, PAC, PAS, PAIC, PAM, PPM,PEVSMonthly: SNIPC, PIM, PMCSpecial: PINTEC

Annual: PNADMonthly: PMESpecial: POF, ECINF

Administrative Registers:Civil Register, MUNIC, MAS, PNSB

Social Indicators System National Accounts System

Sampling Surveys

Statistical Production System

DATA BASE FOR THE SNA

Economic Statistics (annual surveys)• Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Industries -

Enterprise ( PIA - Empresa) 40,369 enterprises

• Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Industries - Product (PIA - Produto)

• Survey of Construction Industry (PAIC) 11,500 enterprises

• Survey of Commerce (PAC) 50,737 enterprises

• Survey of Services (PAS) 67,470 enterprises

Household Surveys• 2000 Population Census: 54 million of households

• PNAD 2006: 140 thousand of households, annual

• Urban informality -ECINF 2004: 54 thousand of households

• Expenditure -POF 2002-2003: 60 thousand of households

• Employment - PME: 42 thousand of households, monthly

Agriculture Statistics• Census of Agriculture

• Annual Surveys– Municipal Agricultural Production Temporary and Permanent

Crops (PAM)– Municipal Livestock Production Survey (PPM)– Extractive Agriculture and Forestry Production (PEVS)

• Short-term Surveys– Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA- monthly)– Animal slaughter, milk production, leather, eggs– Survey of Stocks

Prices Statistics (monthly)

• National System of Consumer Prices Indexes (11 areas)

• National System of Cost Survey and Indices of Construction – SINAPI

• Producer’s Price Indices

External Sources

• FISCAL DECLARATION – Ministry of Economy

• Bussiness registers

• Central Bank

• Government

• National Agency of Electric Energy - ANEEL

• National Agency of Oil- ANP

• External Trade - SECEX

• .......

SNA – reference 2000 Released in March 2007

The reference 2000 SNA series incorporates in its compilation the following actions:

I) New classification of products and activities, integrated with CNAE 1.0 and ISIC Rev. 3.

• Enlargement of the number of activities and products in the SUT

• IEA updated with de DIPJ's data.

IV) Availability of the annual surveys accomplished by the IBGE.

V) Introduction of the 2002 Expenditure Household Survey as a family consumption reference.

VI) Introduction of data from the Agricultural Census of 1995/6.

VII) Jobs disaggregation for production function, what enables the estimate considering the characteristics of productive units.

VIII) Methodology calculation and development of the consumption of fixed capital by the Government and Non Profit institutions.

IX) Distribution of the Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly intermediary consumption by activity, enabling the elimination of the fictitious sector Financial Dummy.

X) Update of the methodology for estimating volume indices. Mostly for public administrations and financial intermediation that, in the previous series, were extrapolated by the demographic growth and by the economy average, respectively.

• Disaggregation the Non-profit institutions from Household Institutional

Sector in the final consumption and in the IEA.

=> 2000 – 2005 reviewed with all new data sources and methodological improvements

=>1996- 1999 backcasting

=>1990 – 1994 maintained

16-jan-89 Cruzado Novo

16-mar-90 Cruzeiro

01-ago-93 Cruzeiro Real

01-jul-94 Real

1991 416,68

1992 969,01

1993 1 996,15

1994 2 240,17

1995 77,55

Variação anual em %

Ano

Deflator

ANNUAL – provisional version (T-1)

- semi-definitive (??)

- definitive (T-2)

QUARTERLY – 70 days after the end of a quarter

REGIONAL – definitive (T-2)

MUNICIPALITIES – GDP only (T-2)

SATELLITES Tourism (project well definided)

Health (project well defined)

Culture (dream)

R & D (dream)

Brazilian System of National Accounts

SUT working level 293 products 149 activities

publication level 110 products 55 activities

IOT each five years

IEA Non-financial corporations

Financial corporations

General Government

Households

Non-profit institutions serving households

Rest of the world

SNA

IEA Current AccountsCurrent Accounts

I. ProductionII. Distribution and use of income accounts

II.1 Primary distribution of incomeII.1.1Generation of incomeII.1.2Allocation of Primary Income

II.2 Secondary distribution of income II. 3 Redistribitution of income in kind

II.4 Use of Income Account II.4.1Use of Disposable Income

II. 4.2 Use of adjustable disposable incomeAccumulation AccountsAccumulation Accounts

III.1 Capital AccountIII.2 Financial Account

QNA

• New series of the Brazilian System of Quarterly National Accounts were released in March 2007, following the reformulation of the Annual System.

• QNA data are disseminated in:• current prices,• chain-linked volume indices (1995=100) and• rates of change. QNA presents data of GDP by 12 economic activities and by component of final expenditures (final consumption expenditure of households, final consumption expenditure of government, gross fixed capital formation, changes in inventories, exports and imports of good and services).

QNA

Data are released for the following activities:

• Agriculture, forestry and fishing

• Industry: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities and Construction

• Services: Commerce, Transportation, Information Services, Rents, Financial Institutions, Public Administration and Other Services

Quarterly series are adjusted to annual data with a Denton type method.The data for GDP, Agriculture, Industry, Services and expenditure components, except changes in inventories, are seasonally adjusted. The X-12 ARIMA method is used for seasonal adjustment.

REGIONAL

For 27 states the Production Account

MUNICIPALITES

GDP in current values for the 5564 municipalities

SATELLITES

Tourism (project well definided) + Ministry of Tourism

Health (project well defined) + Ministry of Health

Culture (dream)

R & D (dream)

• March of year T: GDP, the demand components and the value added of the previous year with base in quarterly data for 12 economic activities in current values and volume indices, annual variation.

•In the second semester, the definitive version of T-2 is published with a complete (110 products and 55 activities) SUT and an IEA. A preliminary version of T-1 with a small SUT (12 activities) was also published.

•QNA data are published 70 days after the end of each quarter. In the QNA a SUT is estimated for each quarter, however only the added value of 12 economic activities is published. chained volume indices, seasonally adjust volume indices and the current values for the GDP, the components of the final demand and the value added of 12 economic activities and an integrated economic account for the country, including the financial account.

•Regional data for T-2 are published in December each year

DISSEMINATION – preannounced schedule

Data Access Publications : methodology and tables with a CD

Internet: all data is available for download

On-line bookstore

NEXT STEPS

• Financial Account until December 2007.

• Balance Sheets

•2012, with reference to 2010, a new revision will be

presented. (ISICRev. 4, the new Expenditure Household

Survey 2007, the Agricultural Census of 2007…..)

GDP

1995-2005

GDP 2000-2005

Preçoscorrentes

Preços do anoanterior

2000 Série Antiga 1 101 255 1 016 312 4,4

2000 Nova Série 1 179 482 1 110 861 4,3 7,1

2001 Série Antiga 1 198 736 1 115 710 1,3

2001 Nova Série 1 302 136 1 194 970 1,3 8,6

2002 Série Antiga 1 346 028 1 221 834 1,9

2002 Nova Série 1 477 822 1 336 748 2,7 9,8

2003 Série Antiga 1 556 182 1 353 363 0,5

2003 Nova Série 1 699 948 1 494 767 1,1 9,2

2004 Série Antiga(2) 1 766 621 1 632 999 4,9

2004 Nova Série 1 941 498 1 797 054 5,7 9,9

2005 Série Antiga(2) 1 937 598 1 806 848 2,3

2005 Nova Série 2 147 943 1 998 646 2,9 10,9

(1) População estimada para 1º de julho - revisão 2004.

(2) Resultados de 2004 calculados a partir das Contas Nacionais Trimestrais.

Nova/Antiga %

Fonte: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Contas Nacionais e Coordenação de População e Indicadores Sociais.

Ano Variação real anual (%)

Produto Interno Bruto

1 000 000 R$

(2)

Participação das atividades no valor adicionado - 2000

Série Antiga (sem dummy) Nova Série

01 Agropecuária 75 222 7,7 57 241 5,6

Indústria 354 180 36,1 283 321 27,7

02 Extrativa mineral 24 289 2,5 16 271 1,6

03 Transformação 211 679 21,6 175 934 17,2

04 Prod. e distrib. de eletricidade, gás e água 32 749 3,3 34 752 3,4

05 Construção civil 85 463 8,7 56 364 5,5

Serviços 552 459 56,3 681 086 66,7

06 Comércio 69 432 7,1 108 275 10,6

07 Transporte, armazenagem e correio 25 473 2,6 49 741 4,9

08 Serviços de informação 25 786 2,6 36 827 3,6

09 Interm. financ. seguros, prev. complem. e serviços 51 304 5,2 60 907 6,0

10 Ativ. imobiliárias e aluguel 120 208 12,2 115 399 11,3

11 Outros Serv. 106 508 10,8 157 416 15,4

12 Adm., saúde e educação públicas 153 747 15,7 152 521 14,9

Valor adicionado a preços básicos 981 861 100,0 1 021 648 100,0

Impostos líquidos sobre produtos 119 394 12,2 157 834 15,4

Produto interno bruto 1 101 255 112,2 1 179 482 115,4

Fonte: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Contas Nacionais.

Participação no valor adicionado a preços básicos (%)Classes e atividades