system thinking masterclass uk

Thinking in systems, system in

thinking

Masterclass systems thinking II

Friday Januar 29th 2010

Drs J. Lelie CPF

J. Lelie (2010) Thinking in systems, systems in thinking 2

Introductions

• On entry:– Name, – What do you do, – What is for you an example of a system

• Introduce yourself and ellaborate on your example


Systemtheories are languages

• Systems: vague, complex, abstract

• No common language

• Every Masterclass in this series is a ‘language’

• Paradox: the more words you have, the bigger the confusion


Masterclasses

• Sociotechnique• Systems Thinking• Policy Directing• …


1. This meeting

• Goal: -- -(less) questions• Balancing cycle

– Questions – + (more) explanation

– Explanation – - questions

• Growth cycle– Explanation –+ exercise– Exercise –+ questions

• Limit– Time limits exercises

question

goal -

explanation

+

-

time-

exercise

+

+

== time delay


1.1 Your questions

• What questions do you have on Systems Thinking, Thinking in Systems?– Write down your questions– What is your most important one– Please take care of your question


1.2 System Archetypes

• System consists is set of elements with relations• Archetype is a pattern of elements and relations,

a kind of story• System archetypes combine stabilizing and

growing relations with a certain pattern over time• Show structure, mental models and effective

interventions• Learning to discern structures


1.3 History

• 1950s: Jay Forrester, Massachusetts Institute of Technology: computer simulations of effects from … before implementation.

• 1960s: Club of Rome: limits to growth.• 1980s Michael Goodman: systems archetypes,

for companies, at Innovation Associates, foundes by Peter Senge.

• 1990’s Peter Senge’s The Fifth Discipline: success to the succesful


1.4.1 Natural systems

• Every system tends to grow to an equilibrium– Growth meets limits– Shrinking leads to disappearance

• Dynamical equilibrium between (sub)systems• Thermo dynamical equilibrium

– Isolated systems: in due time pressure and temperature difference disappear.

– Control: system in equilibrium no spontaneous changes


1.4.2 equilibrium

• 1887: ‘Is our solar system stable?’– Poincaré: no! unpredictable

• 1963: Edward Lorenz (MIT)– Attractorfields: patterns in weather en

populations– systems show (quasi) stabile behaviour

• 1971: strange attractors– systems become always turbulent– even chaos has its rules


1.5.1 Feedback ‘classic’

Primairy process III

Primairy process II

Primairy process I

Change input (re)organise, standardise measure output

evaluateanalyse

Vision, mission, strategy

NORMS


1.5.2 Feedback in system thinking


2. Causal relations and systems

• Example– Causale relations– Cycli– Connections archetype

• Exercise– Problem desrciption– Story devlopement– Drawings


2.1.1 Example

• I make about, 2 to 5 typing errors in a presentation

• I make mistakes when I’m nervous• As I become more nervous, I make more

mistakes • If I could relax, I would make less

mistakes


Nervousness

2.2.2 Causal diagrams

-

+

+

+Number of mistakes

Nervousness

ExercisesIn relaxation

Makes me (more)

Making (more)

Makes me (less)

Need for


2.2.3 Example (cont.)

• The result of exercises takes time to show itself.

• To prevent mistakes, somebody will check and correct my work

• However that makes me more nervous, so i mkae more mistekase

• Also: quality control will try to show it is necessary and look for (more) mistakes


2.2.4 Adding it

-

++

+Mistakes

Nervousness

ExercisesIn relaxation

QualityControl

+

-

+

Takes time


2.2.5 Archetype: shifting the blame

Number of errors

Norm: no errors

Quality control

nervousness

Training

+

-

-

+

-


2.3 Exercise

1. Take one of your concerns2. Story of causale relations 3. Make cycles (loops), look for time delays4. Destill archetypes5. Propose Interventions


2.3.1 Procedure causal relations

• Tell you story: – What is the problem, what gave rise, what

emotion of feeling (concrete)?– What is the motion now (less, more)?– What are effects? What are causes?– Movement of effects + (less less) of -

(less more)?– Others effects (or causes).– Close cycle.


2.3.1 Notes on problem

• Problem description:– Difference between actual situation (reality)

and desired (expected) (charged negatively)– Chronic problem, comes and goes– Tried and tried again to solve– Based on facts: S.M.A.R.T.– No solution that don’t work! – Not reduction of tension, emotions or feelings – No blaming (if only party x would ….)


2.3.1 Notes on story

• Story line– What effects are cause by problem ? – What causes the problem …?– Vijf times why?

• Why is 1 problem? Because of 2• Why is 2 problem? Because of 3 or 4 …..

– Close causes and effects• Look for time delays: not immediately evident


• Cycli– coupling: adding + ( ) reducing - ( )– times delays

• What are direct effects? What takes time?

– Vermenigvuldig koppelingen en bepaal• Reïnforcing • Balancing

2.2.2 Notes on cycli


2.2.2 Tell story

• Write elements on Post-It• Tell story to neutral listener, while drawing

arrows• Questions and discussions• Rearrange• Look for time delays• Listen carefully to the hidden messages

on archetype


2.2.3 Archetypes

• Listen to what has been said– Sometimes the archetypes are mentioned– Sometimes story needs editting to make it fit– Look for archetype in literature


Unintended Consequences


Accidental Adversaries


Equilibrium


Goal adjustment


Escalation (symmetry)


Growth and underinvestment


Shifting the burden


Success to the successful


Tragedy of commons

System of archetypes


3. Connections through processes

• 4C-model: connection between – Communicating– Confiding (trusting)– Committing– Co-operating

• 4C-model is high level model• The archetypes hide in the


3.1 Trust

InventoryLead times

-

+

-

committing++ co-operating

++

confiding communicating

++

++

Archetypes- Shifting burden- Addicton - success to the succesful-…

3.2 4C-model

JIT-cycle

MRP-cycle

TQM-cycle

TOC-cycle

committing++ co-operating

++

confiding communicating

++

++

Inventorylead times

-

+

-

-

Expenses

Tasks

+

-+

Resources

+

Throughput

+

Agreements

Deliveryreliability

+

+ +

© (1996 – 2010) mind@work


4. Example

• Sweet water infrastructure The Netherlands


5. Summary

• Systems thinking is a language for speaking in cycles

• System archetyps are titles for ‘never ending stories’.

• System Thinking doesn’t solve problems, it makes it just better to bear

• Thank you


More information

• http://www.systems-thinking.org/index.htm• http://www.pegasuscom.com/• Donella H. Meadows, Thinking in Systems: A Primer,

(2008)• P. Senge, The Fifth Discipline: The art and practice of

the learning organization (1990)• .. e.a. The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook: Strategies and

Tools for Building a Learning Organization (1994)

http://www.systems-thinking.org/index.htm

http://www.pegasuscom.com/

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