systems thinking

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systems thinking

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Talk given in Oslo 14th May 2013, at the Scotsman Pub.

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Page 1: Systems Thinking

systems thinking

Page 2: Systems Thinking

cyberneticsthinking about systems primarily as

dynamic patterns of interaction and feedback

(rather than as static abstractions)

Page 3: Systems Thinking

your wife is very

beautiful

Page 4: Systems Thinking

Just calling it "feedback" doesn't mean that it has actually fed back.

Page 5: Systems Thinking

The amount of feedback built into living organisms differs by many orders of magnitude from the amount we build into man-made systems.John Gall

Page 6: Systems Thinking

There is not one living creature that lacks that integrated, total unification through feedback. John Gall

Page 7: Systems Thinking

Compared to a frog or a salamander, our biggest manmade systems seem like simple wind-up toys.John Gall

Page 8: Systems Thinking

Ignoring feedback merely means that the system will eventually experience a massive unpleasant surprise rather than a small unpleasant surprise.John Gall

Page 9: Systems Thinking

It may look like a crisis, but it's only the end of an illusion.

Page 10: Systems Thinking

tinitus

Page 11: Systems Thinking

danger

Page 12: Systems Thinking
Page 13: Systems Thinking

change

Page 14: Systems Thinking

Blood Sugar

Page 15: Systems Thinking
Page 16: Systems Thinking
Page 17: Systems Thinking
Page 18: Systems Thinking

is

Page 19: Systems Thinking

is

Hyperglycemia

Page 20: Systems Thinking

is

sensespancreas

Hyperglycemia

Page 21: Systems Thinking

is

sensespancreas causes

insulin

Hyperglycemia

Page 22: Systems Thinking

is

sensespancreas causes

insulin

senses

liver &muscles

Hyperglycemia

Page 23: Systems Thinking

is

sensespancreas causes

insulin

senses

liver &muscles

causes glycogen

Hyperglycemia

Page 24: Systems Thinking

is

sensespancreas causes

insulin

senses

liver &muscles

causes glycogen

Hyperglycemia

Page 25: Systems Thinking

is

sensespancreas causes

insulin

senses

liver &muscles

causes glycogen

Hypoglycemia

Hyperglycemia

Page 26: Systems Thinking

is

sensespancreas causes

insulin

senses

liver &muscles

causes glycogen

Hypoglycemia

Hyperglycemia

pancreas

senses

Page 27: Systems Thinking

is

sensespancreas causes

insulin

senses

liver &muscles

causes glycogen

Hypoglycemia

Hyperglycemia

pancreas

senses

glucagoncauses

Page 28: Systems Thinking

is

sensespancreas causes

insulin

senses

liver &muscles

causes glycogen

Hypoglycemia

Hyperglycemia

pancreas

senses

glucagoncauses

senses

Page 29: Systems Thinking

is

sensespancreas causes

insulin

senses

liver &muscles

causes glycogen

Hypoglycemia

Hyperglycemia

pancreas

senses

glucagoncauses

sensescauses

Page 30: Systems Thinking

Systems tend to oppose their own proper function.

Henri Louis Le Chatelier

Le Chatelier's Principle

Page 31: Systems Thinking

All change can be understood as the effort to maintain some constancy...

Page 32: Systems Thinking

All change can be understood as the effort to maintain some constancy......and all constancy as maintained through change.

Page 33: Systems Thinking

The battle over food and territory between two species is only one half of the story.

Page 34: Systems Thinking

The battle over food and territory between two species is only one half of the story. ...the battle is a means or process of generating, maintaining, and stabilizing an ecosystem.Gregory BatesonSteps to an Ecology of Mind (I think)

Page 35: Systems Thinking

evolution

Page 36: Systems Thinking

evolution is always

Page 37: Systems Thinking

evolution is always

co-evolutionJohn Gall

Page 38: Systems Thinking

What is involved is not simply survival

of the fittest

Page 39: Systems Thinking

What is involved is not simply survival

of the fittestbut survival of the

fitting-in-est.John Gall

Page 40: Systems Thinking

break;

Page 41: Systems Thinking

slack

Page 42: Systems Thinking

Queues amplify variability. Moving from 75 to 95% utilization increases variability by 25 times.

Page 43: Systems Thinking

local optimization=~=

global pessimization

Page 44: Systems Thinking

the whole is greater than the sum of the

parts

Page 45: Systems Thinking

Successful change can only come in the context of a clear understanding of what may never change, what the organization stands for. ...

Page 46: Systems Thinking

If nothing is declared unchangeable, then the organization will resist all change. When there is no defining vision, the only way the organization can define itself is its stasis.

Page 47: Systems Thinking
Page 48: Systems Thinking

Every effect has a cause...

The Causation Fallacy

Page 49: Systems Thinking

Every effect has a cause... and we can tell which is which.

The Causation Fallacy

Page 50: Systems Thinking

defects latenesscause effect

====

Page 51: Systems Thinking

defectslateness

cause effect====

Page 52: Systems Thinking
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Page 54: Systems Thinking
Page 55: Systems Thinking

The Law of Unintended Consequences

Page 56: Systems Thinking
Page 57: Systems Thinking

Failure demand

"Demand caused by a failure to do something or do something right for the customer"

John Seddon

Page 58: Systems Thinking

Failure demand in software

?