systems thinking for national infrastructure...

Beckford Consulting © 2011

Systems Thinking for National Infrastructure Planning

John BeckfordFor

Centre for Systems Studies, The University of Hull6th February 2013

Beckford Consulting © 2011Beckford Consulting © 2011

Introduction

• “A Network of Networks”• Initial Discovery• Understanding Systemic Risks and Opportunities• Cybernetics in Practice• Systems Engineering or Systemic Engineering?


Acknowledgement

• Professor Brian Collins– Chair Centre for Engineering Policy, UCL– Ex CSA to BIS (BERR) and DfT


Outputs

• An Overview of Systemic Interdependencies of the UK National Infrastructure (with AEA)• Infrastructure Resilience Matters, April 2010

– Brian Collins, CSA, BIS• ICT Climate Risk(with AEA):

– Adaptation and Climate Change Project, DEFRA, April 2010• Infrastructure as Economic Eco‐System

– Halcrow, September 2010• Understanding the ‘Systems of Infrastructure’

– Ordnance Survey Utilities Conference, September 2010• Systemic Responses for Managing Adaptation and Climate Change in the Rail Industry

– TRACCA Project, Network Rail, December 2010• Infrastructure Resilience: A Systemic Perspective

– Meteorological Office, Exeter, January 2011• International Engagement on Critical Infrastructure Dependencies,

– Deputy Minister, Public Safety, Canada, Ottawa, March 2011• Systemic Risk and Opportunities, Lead Researcher

– Engineering and Interdependency Expert Group, HM Treasury• A KISS for SMART Infrastructure

– Ordnance Survey Utilities Conference, Stratford, October 2011 • Surfing the Waves,

– Systems Centre, University of Bristol April 2012• National Consistency and Local Autonomy: A shared model for information

– Ordnance Survey, Critical National Infrastructure Seminar, June 2012


Process

• Good Engineering Practice


Process

• Good Engineering Practice– ‘When you don’t know what else to do, make a list’ (Tom Peters, 1996)


• Good Engineering Practice– ‘When you don’t know what else to do, make a list’ (Tom Peters, 1996)

• Three key areas• Policy & Standards• Infrastructure• Demand

• Ordered by area, mapped each one

Process


Transport

Water

Energy

Waste

ICT

First Cut


Policy & Standards

Infrastructure

Demand

Licensing, Ownership, Governance, Direction, Constraints

Supply & Delivery Systems, Owners, Business Systems

Industrial, Commercial and Domestic Users

The Levels


Policy & Standards

Infrastructure

Demand




EnvironmentalChange

UK Government

WAG

EU Gov

Economy

Safety

ScottishParliament

DfT DECC

EfficiencyCost

Corporatelobbying Global

business

CompetitionPolicy

Delivery/ownership

Power/energy/Telecomms co.s

DefraORR

BERR

HA

LAs

RDAs

TransportScotland

Airportoperators

TOCs

NetworkRail

HS 1/HS 2

ROSCOsCyclingEngland

RDAs Port owners

NI Assembly

PTEs

TfL

Timetabling/scheduling

Spatial usage patterns

Legacyinfrastructure

Land usepatterns

Airspaceusage

Security

Skills Energysources

Technology

Transportsubstitution

Human behaviour

Navigation

CommunitiesShippingchannels

AccessibilityInternational

bodiesIMO ICAO

ISO

Policy targets/framing Demographics

Logisticspolicy

Consumers

DCLGIPC/

Planning Inspectorate

Policy and Standards L1


Policy & Standards

Demand



Cycling

Cycleways

Supporting Infrastructure

Light Rail

Track / Road

Vehicles

Intersections

Support systems

Energy Infrastructure

Terminals

Heavy Rail

Track

Vehicles

Intersections

Support systems


Terminals

Underground

Vehicles

Track/ Tunnels/

Intersections

Support systems


Terminals Road Transport

Road

Vehicles

Intersections

Support systems


Terminals

Aviation

Airspace

Vehicles

Airport

Support systems


PeripheralInfrastructure

Shipping

Vehicles

Shipping lanes /channels

Support systems


Port PeripheralInfrastructure

Walking

Walkways

Pipelines

Goods/wastePipelines

Terminals

Off road Infrastructure

TransportInfrastructure L2‐3


Policy & Standards

Demand



Road

Roads

Motorways

Trunk roads

Local roads

Energy Systems

Refuelling stations

Oil refinieries

Electricity supply infrastructure

Hydrogen supplyinfrastructure

Support Systems

Electrical systems

Telecommunications

Lighting

Vehicles

Cars

2 wheelers

Bicycles

Buses & coaches

Terminals

Coach stations

Bus stations

Freight distribution centres

Intersections

Tunnels

Bridges

Level crossings

Vans

Junctions (incl. Roundabouts)

Traffic control & signage

Enforcement systems

Other

Lorries

Off road

Car / lorry parks

Bus depots

Test tracks

Private land / drives

InfrastructureLevels 2‐3


Policy & Standards

Demand



Heavy Rail

Track

26 Strategic routes

High Speed 1 & 2

Channel tunnel

Heritage lines

Energy Systems

Substations

3rd rail DC

Overhead power lines

Refuelling depots

Support Systems

Signalling

Telecommunications

Lighting

Vehicles

Rolling stock

Locomotives

DMUS & EMUS

Coaching stock

Terminals

Stations

Freight terminals

Rolling stock depots

Intersections

Tunnels

Bridges

Level crossings

Wagons

Heavy Rail Infrastructure L2‐3


Policy & Standards

Infrastructure

Demand




Outsourcers

CorporateNetworks

PFI

Receivers

Education

DomesticConsumers

LocalGov’t

Modems Routers

Health

LibrariesWireless

Defence

Museums

ArchivesPolicing &Security

Databases Applications Presentation

Wired

Resilience

Demand

• Transport by type and dependency• Energy by type and dependency• Waste by type and dependency• ICT by type and dependency• Water by type and dependency

And so on

• Understanding– It has too many elements and interactions for a ‘flat’ diagram to accommodate

– The modelling needs to be handled recursively– Need to separate the gross effects as they work across levels from the impact of local interactions

– Systemic relationships with emergent properties separated from the transactional activities

– Single view is not enough– Recursive modelling in two planes

Realisation


Orthogonal Slices

Policy

Infrastructure

Demand

Vertical Plane

HorizontalPlanes


Orthogonal Slices

• Reveals potential complexity of the whole• Provides a base for thinking about modelling

– What is ‘useful’ for decision making?– What is inside the ‘system of interest’?– What are the limits of influence?– What is the ‘purpose of the system’?– What is the ‘purpose’ for which we are modelling?– What is a meaningful simplification?


Structured Diagram

Development

Control & Regulation

Policy

Operations

Corporate& SocialEnvironment

ProblematicFutureEnvironment

?


Peak Demand

Lack ofDiversity

ClimateChange

CoastalAssets

DemandConstraints

Seasonality

NaturalEvents

Ownership

PhaseTransitions

PeakPerturbations

PublicConfidence

DemandManagement

DisparateCapital &OwnershipModels

Return onCapital

SoftwareCapability

HumanCapital

KeySkills

Availability –materials, skills,

power

Scheduling& Logistics

Nexus

Nexus highlights the interactionof six potential points of failure

InformationAccuracy

Capital flight

Risks and Points of failure


Spatial PlanningData Infrastructure

DampingPeaks

Prediction

DisasterPrevention

Alignment of Contract Cycles

FiscalEfficiency

EconomicEfficiency

Investment inRenewables

Transport

Energy

ICT

Water

Waste

JobCreation

CriticalSkills

Better Useof Data

Inter‐disciplinary(Systems)Skills

RapidCapacity Growth

LowerCosts

Use ofSubsidy

EnhanceNetworks

Availability Of capital

Resilience and Sustainability


ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

Demand

Demand Demand

Demand

Energy Supply

Demand Management

Critical Communications

Demand Management

Demand Management


Demand Management

Depends on

Think Piece

“The effects of serious NI failures on business and public confidence are likely to be far reaching and long‐lasting, with inevitable economic and political consequences if that failure is localised in the UK.

Much of the national infrastructure – railways, roads, energy production and supply, water and sewage works – was constructed in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Their robustness and resilience provided the basis for subsequent economic and population growth far beyond what was envisaged at the time.

More recent infrastructure developments in information and communications technologies (ICT) now underpin the operation of the other sectors. The major change over the last 50 years has been the gradual, but ultimately seismic, shift from a series of unconnected structures to an interconnected NI where failure in one part has a direct and damaging knock‐on effect in others.

The UK national infrastructure is now a network of networks.”

Systemic Interaction


Outcome

• Acceptance that– ‘the UK infrastructure is a network of networks’

• ‘Regulation’ as currently exercised is incompetent– Economic focus – principally regulating price– (Largely) private ownership and/or operation– Considers the individual parts, not the whole

• ‘Performance’ and ‘Resilience’ are– Not understood – lack of meaningful data– Cannot be ‘managed’ – lack of ‘organisation’


Next Steps

• But what about in practice?


Next Steps

• But what about in practice?• Further research….

– Case Studies• Olympic Park, High Speed 2, Eurostar, National Air Traffic Services• Cockermouth Disaster, Gloucester Floods• Food Distribution, International Supply Chains• National Grid, ICT Networks, Water in the Gas Supply

– Interviews, Workshops, Discussions• UK and Australia

– ‘systemic’ needed explanation to many…..

• Understanding Systemic Thinking• Interaction

– The existence of ‘system’ is rooted in the connectivity of one element with others – this constitutes an entity which can be dealt with in its totality – it is a ‘system’

– Some founding ideas: » Von Bertalanffy, Wiener, Checkland, Beer, Ackoff, Forrester etc


Energy Waste WaterICTTransport

The Elements


ICT

Energy

Transport Water

Waste


The Elements

The Interactions


ICT

Energy

Transport Water

Waste


The Elements

The Interactions

The System


• Understanding Systemic Thinking• Interaction

– The existence of ‘system’ is rooted in the connectivity of one element with others – this constitutes an entity which can be dealt with in its totality – it is a ‘system’

– Founding ideas: » Von Bertalanffy, Wiener, Checkland, Beer, Ackoff, Forrester

• Interdependency– The functioning of one element of the infrastructure depends on one (or more) other elements

– Issues cannot be resolved in isolation• Emergent properties

– Systems exhibit properties that belong only to the system as a whole – not to any of its elements

» Flight


Systemic Interaction -flight


Airframe Propulsion

ControlSystem

ManagementSystem


Airframe Propulsion

ControlSystem

EnergySupplySystem

ManagementSystem

MaintenanceSystem

Systemic Interaction –safe flights

EnergySupplySystem

ATCSystem

Airframe Propulsion

ControlSystem

ManagementSystem

MaintenanceSystem

Systemic Interaction –regulated airspace

EnergySupplySystem

ATCSystem

Airframe Propulsion

ControlSystem

ManagementSystem

MaintenanceSystemRegulatory

System

• Why is it a problem?• Current paradigm

– (Relatively) linear, reductionist thinking– Solutions to THIS issue are developed in isolation from THOSE issues– But THOSE issues are interdependent with THIS one


• Why is it a problem?• Sometimes, rather than solve issues they are moved or displaced:

– The NHS displaces patients from one budget holder to another» changes in GP contracts re out of hours surgery has displaced local practice volumes to A&E departments

» the number of people treated is, roughly, the same

• Sometimes issues in one area impose a cost burden in another –which renders it beyond control

– Healthcare for those involved in road accidents imposes costs on the NHS and the Insurance Companies not the DSA

– But the DSA owns the licence giving system– The ‘pain’ is displaced ensuring that the ‘owning’ entity does not fix the system


Systems Thinking in the UK

• The Good, the Bad and the Disinterested– Ideas around for about around 100 years– Offers approacheswhich are

• ends and means oriented • organisational and social views

– VSM, SSM, Systems Dynamics, SAST, CSH– ‘Systems’ or ‘holistic’ thinking beginning to be adopted– But not core in Academic or Professional Education (or Engineering)

• It is easier to work within the established paradigm than change the thinking (Machiavelli)

• There is a dearth of truly systemic thinking in our approaches to problem solving

• This may well exacerbate our challenges as systemic interactions become more complex

– More widely – the language of systems is being used – but without meaning!• “Humpty Dumpty paid his words extra to make them mean what he chose, but he couldn’t change the nature of the things that they described” Beer (1966)


ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport


67 Interactions

ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport


The Challenges

• Adopting a new paradigm

The Challenges

• Adopting a new paradigm• Einstein on madness?

The Challenges


– “Doing the same thing and expecting a different result”

The Challenges


– “Doing the same thing and expecting a different result”• If we want to change the way things work (and it rather looks

like we need to) then we need to adopt different methods

The Challenges

• Do the (systemically) right thing right not the wrong thing better!

Opportunities

• Do the (systemically) right thing right not the wrong thing better!– Understand the ‘system of infrastructure’– Integrate its management– ‘Dissolve the problem’

• Address the systemic problem – not the symptom– interconnectedness means that solving one problem may well solve another!

– Exploit the transformational potential of ICT

Opportunities


Indicative Model: Current Situation

OfGen

Transport

Waste

GovernmentPolicy

OfWat

OfCom

EconomicRegulators

Operators

Operators

Operators

Operators

Operators

Market, Technology,Customers





Economic ConstraintsUKCP’nn’, IPCC, Votes


Logical Constraints on Freedom

Business Units

The Industry

The Regulator

Infrastructure UK

Balancing National, Cross‐Sector and Sector interests:action on empowerment, acceptance of constraints

Freedom

Freedom

Government Policy

empowers and constrains





Planning andAdaptation

Policy

Waste

Transport

Energy

ICT

Water

Integrationand Control

Viable System forInfrastructure


Indicative Model:Integrating Infrastructure UK

Future Environment:Market, SocietyTechnology, CustomersUKCP’nn’, IPCC, Votes

OfGen

Transport?

Waste?

GovernmentPolicy

OfWat

OfCom

Planning &Modelling

InterdependencyResilience

‘Golden Share’

PerformanceRegulators:Economic?Resilience?Low Carbon?

Infrastructure UK

Operators

Operators

Operators

Operators

Operators







Indicative Model:Integrating Infrastructure UK

Future Environment:Market, SocietyTechnology, CustomersUKCP’nn’, IPCC, Votes

OfGen

Transport

Waste

GovernmentPolicy

OfWat

OfCom

Planning &Modelling

InterdependencyResilience

‘Golden Share’

PerformanceRegulators:Economic?Resilience?Low Carbon?

Infrastructure UK

Operators

Operators

Operators

Operators

Operators

just in case

just in time







Actual

Capability

Potential

Productivity

Latency

Effectiveness

The Potentiometer

Drivingoperationalimprovement

Drivingstrategicimprovement


Actual

Capability

Potential

Productivity

Latency

Effectiveness

The Potentiometer



Infrastructure UK

Regulators


Managing Performance

Actual

Capability

Potential

Productivity

Latency

Effectiveness



Actual

Capability

Potential

Productivity

Latency

Effectiveness



Actual

Capability

Potential

Productivity

Latency

Effectiveness



Economic

Resilience

Low Carbon

Actual

Capability

Potential

Productivity

Latency

Effectiveness

Overall Performance

Limited by the worst performing element

• Systemic Model of the whole infrastructure• Infrastructure Supply Chain Review

– Capability, Resilience, National Risk

• Resilience Assessment for every infrastructure project• Resilience Share Investment

– Private Capital – just in time– Public Capital – just in case

• Skills Investment– Systems Thinking– Information Utilisation

• Invest in Critical ICT and Communications Systems

Proposals

Infrastructure UK: Initial Research


• National Infrastructure Plan section 3.41 requirement:– assess and report on systemic risks and opportunities in infrastructure

• I‐UK work programme overview November 2010:– interdependencies ….. are understood and managed

• Specific brief: Study current or recent infrastructure projects:– integration opportunities have been secured or missed– interdependency risks have been managed and/or neglected

– identify issues to addressed which manage/mitigate risk

UNCLASSIFIED 65

• To study a number of current or recent infrastructure projects and identify where:– Integration Opportunities have been secured and/or missed

– Interdependency risks have been managed and/or neglected

– To identify issues which must be addressed to obtain benefit or manage/mitigate risks

Objective


• Case Studies– Extreme Weather Impact– Kings Cross Redevelopment– Gloucester Floods Retrospective– ODA: Transport Infrastructure– E‐On: Power Distribution– Frog Island: Energy from Waste– Fukushima Tsunami– High Speed 2– Grain CHP– Lean Thinking– Literature Review

Key Findings (1)

• Systems approach could deliver benefits:– in the order of 10% on new investments

• either reduced costs or increased return• equates to £4bn per annum against a £40bn spend• similar scale benefits to private sector of £16bn against £160bn

– risk reduction and preventative work• around £1‐£2bn per annum

Key Findings (2)

• Systemic interactions– are not recognised or addressed

• 400 infrastructure impairments in November/December 2010– £1.5bn cost (Quarmby)– £3bn Gloucester Floods, 2007– could have been prevented for between £150m ‐ £400m

– purposeful, value focused approach• potential for significant investment, CO2, and performance gain

– ODA converted own £800m to £5.7bn of investment value– Grain power station

» 72% thermal efficiency through co‐location and 350kt CO2 reduction

Key Findings (3)

• Supply chains are poorly understood and managed– risks and vulnerabilities are not addressed– opportunities for integration are missed– international vulnerabilities

• Infrastructure owners lack awareness– of their dependency on other providers– of their impact on higher order infrastructure

• lack of meaningful data

• Lessons learned in other sectors could be applied– Toyota Production System (lean manufacturing)– systems based organisation design

Recommendations (1)

• All investment be guided by:– appreciation of the balance between value and cost– improvement in effectiveness and resilience– ‘magenta book’ – guidelines for investment decisions

• Regulatory review– cross‐sectoral consistency– avoidance of perverse outcomes

• Formally recognise and address the absolute and critical interdependency of Energy and ICT

Recommendations (2)

• ‘resilience contribution assessment’• Regulatory cycles (5‐8 years) need to (somehow) respect the capital cycles of the relevant sector (25‐60 years) to generate greater certainty for investors

• Infrastructure performance data, be collected through telemetry

• I‐UK roles of– strategic oversight– advice on performance, resilience, investment, sustainability

• Application of systems models and methods

Systemic Interaction -society

ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

El Pueblo


ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

enables depends on

Commerce

Defence Civil Admin

Health Education


ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

enables depends on

Commerce

Defence Civil Admin

Health Education

Society

• Primary Infrastructure– Water, Energy, Waste, ICT, Transport (WEWIT)

• Dependent Infrastructure– Healthcare, Education, Commerce, Civil Administration, Defence etc

• Society– is the emergent property of the ‘Dependent Infrastructure System’ – which is an emergent property of the ‘Primary Infrastructure System’

– If either should fail, both will fail

– Hurricane Katrina!

Systemic Interaction -Society

• Understanding Systemic Thinking• The Railway Journey


Systemic Interaction –The Journey

© Beckford Consulting 1991 ‐ 2010

RailVehicle



RailVehicle

PropulsionSystem



RailVehicle

PropulsionSystem

ControlSystem



RailVehicle

PropulsionSystem

ControlSystem

Operator



RailVehicle

PropulsionSystem

ControlSystem

Operator

EnergySupply



RailVehicle

PropulsionSystem

ControlSystem

Operator

EnergySupply

Station



RailVehicle

PropulsionSystem

ControlSystem

Operator

EnergySupply

Station

PermanentWay



RailVehicle

PropulsionSystem

ControlSystem

Operator

EnergySupply

Station

PermanentWay

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem



RailVehicle

PropulsionSystem

ControlSystem

Operator

EnergySupply

Station

PermanentWay

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

LandManagement

System



RailVehicle

PropulsionSystem

ControlSystem

Operator

EnergySupply

Station

PermanentWay

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

LandManagement

System

TicketingSystem



RailVehicle

PropulsionSystem

ControlSystem

Operator

EnergySupply

Station

PermanentWay

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

LandManagement

System

TicketingSystem

OwnershipSystem



RailVehicle

PropulsionSystem

ControlSystem

Operator

EnergySupply

Station

PermanentWay

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

LandManagement

System

TicketingSystem

OwnershipSystem

Track UseSystem



RailVehicle

PropulsionSystem

ControlSystem

Operator

EnergySupply

Station

PermanentWay

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

MaintenanceSystem

LandManagement

System

TicketingSystem

OwnershipSystem

Track UseSystem

RegulatorySystem



• No single definition– Recovery time?– Minimal Impairment?

• Working Definition 2013:– An infrastructure system is resilient when, although dependent on systemic interactions, connectedness of the whole system is such that functioning continues to be effective when one or more of the interactions fails

Resilience

Hierarchy of Resilience

ICT

Energy

Transport Water

Waste

Energy Waste WaterICTTransportNetwork

Systemic

Asset PumpingStations Reservoirs

Recycling Centre

AnaerobicDigestion Plant

Exchanges Masts

Generation Sub‐Stations

Exchanges Masts

PumpsPipesCables SwitchesValvesRegulators ControlSystemsTurbinesArtefact

Parts

Sub‐Assemblies

Parts

Sub‐Assemblies

ComponentParts

Sub‐Assemblies

Parts

Sub‐Assemblies

Parts

Sub‐Assemblies

Surfing the Waves

• Inspired by response of HMT to initial work• Traditional economic modelling for growth

– Considered individual elements of infrastructure– Picked up co‐location, sharing– Did not appear to model interdependency from either a performance, resilience or

economic perspective– Considered economic benefits of ‘THIS’ but not the consequences for ‘THESE’


Surfing the Waves


– considered individual elements of infrastructure– picked up co‐location, sharing– did not appear to model interdependency from either a performance, resilience or

economic perspective– considered economic benefits of ‘THIS’ but not the consequences for ‘THESE’

• So, how to address?


Surfing the Waves


– considered individual elements of infrastructure– picked up co‐location, sharing– did not appear to model interdependency from either a performance, resilience or

economic perspective– considered economic benefits of ‘THIS’ but not the consequences for ‘THESE’

• So, how to address?• Need a model that accepts and values interdependency• Also need to understand that:

– time is an important element– economic benefits do not respect either the budgetary or electoral cycles


• “The UK Infrastructure is a network of networks” CST 2009

• Each element‐EnergyTransportICTWaterWaste‐ depends to some degree on the others

• Might models that deal with interdependency provide the feedstock for economic modelling?

ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

Demand

Demand Demand

Demand

Demand Management


Demand Management

Demand Management


Demand Management

Depends on

Surfing the Waves


• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation

Activity

Capability

Utilisation

Surfing the Waves


• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential

Effectiveness

Activity

Capability

Utilisation

Potential

Latency

Surfing the Waves


• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness

Effectiveness

Activity

Capability

Utilisation

Potential

Latency

Surfing the Waves



• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited

• Increased activity without investment generates growth

Effectiveness

Activity

Capability

Utilisation

Potential

Latency

Surfing the Waves





• Effectiveness = ROI?

Effectiveness

Activity

Capability

Utilisation

Potential

Latency

Surfing the Waves





• Effectiveness = ROI?

Surfing the Waves

ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

Demand

Demand Demand

Demand

Demand Management


Demand Management

Demand Management


Demand Management

Depends on


• When the current capability and potential is fully exploited what happens?– or failing or in need of replacement

• The economic case is hard to make for the replacement or upgrade• Locally it costs too much and in itself does not provide sufficient additional

value• Perhaps, the economic benefit is embedded in its enabling role?• Perhaps, the benefit can be measured:

– elsewhere in the network of networks of the primary infrastructure– in the secondary infrastructure– in societal rather than economic benefit

Surfing the Waves


• When the current capability and potential is fully exploited what happens?– or failing or in need of replacement

• The economic case is hard to make for the replacement or upgrade• Locally it costs too much and in itself does not provide sufficient additional

value• Perhaps, the economic benefit is embedded in its enabling role?• Perhaps, the benefit can be measured:

– elsewhere in the network of networks of the primary infrastructure– in the secondary infrastructure– in societal rather than economic benefit

• We need to understand investment and growth in a systemic sense

Surfing the Waves


• Infrastructure investment works in waves over time:– Wave 1: Design and build– Wave 2: Maintain– Wave 3: Exploit

Surfing the Waves


• Wave 1 belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the phase (2‐10 years)– Enables growth but in itself perhaps adds little direct value– Growth arises primarily at the location of the designers and builders?

Surfing the Waves



• Wave 2 also belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the element itself (5‐100 years?)– Supports/enables long term economic growth locally and elsewhere– Maintenance spend is relatively local – delivers some level of local benefit

Surfing the Waves



• Wave 2 also belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the element itself (5‐100 years?)– Supports/enables long term economic growth locally and elsewhere– Maintenance spend is relatively local – delivers some level of local benefit

• Wave 3 belongs to infrastructure users– Lasts the life of the primary element– May have multiple cycles– Will have multiple exploiters– Benefit is perhaps measured in:

• the exploiting infrastructure NOT the primary infrastructure• the social infrastructure – education, commerce, civil administration, healthcare, defence

Surfing the Waves



Surfing the Waves

Wave 1Wave 1Wave 2Wave 2

Wave 3Wave 3

ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

Surfing the Waves

Wave 1 Build


ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

enables depends on

Commerce

Defence Civil Admin

Health Education

Surfing the Waves

Wave 1

Wave 2 Maintain

Build


ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

enables depends on

Commerce

Defence Civil Admin

Health Education

Society

Surfing the Waves

Wave 1

Wave 2

Wave 3

Maintain

Build

Exploit


ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

enables depends on

Commerce

Defence Civil Admin

Health Education

Society

Surfing the Waves


• Suggestion is that we need to develop and adopt systemic economic models to synthesise and understand how to realise the potential of:– Economic and social benefit from:

• individual entities• co‐located and co‐dependent entities• interdependent networks• networks of Networks

– Develop and test systemic hypotheses in economic terms– Address the challenges of:

• integrated investment by fragmented owners• long‐term, inter‐generational infrastructure investment• short term electoral and budget cycle thinking

Surfing the Waves

Effectiveness

Activity

Capability

Utilisation

Potential

Latency

• Systemic thinking embedded in the National Infrastructure Plan 2011, 2012

• Hybrid Bill (2018) for HS2 includes, for the first time provision for ‘commercially exploitable communications capability’

– Provision of dark fibre– Phase 2 likely to include other infrastructure provisions

• PF2, son of PFI, will include Government holding equity in infrastructure ventures

• TRaCCA research explicitly includes a systemic approach to modelling impacts

• ITRC is modelling the whole UK Infrastructure– £10m, EPSRC, Led by Oxford

• Ongoing research by UCL & UOB to develop modelling tools for systemic infrastructure evaluation

Impact

• Rail Safety and Standards Board and Network Rail• British Geological Survey• CIRIA

Ongoing Infrastructure Work

• Organisational Effectiveness Consultancy

Cybernetics in Practice

Idealised

Views

Client

Model of

Problem

Client

Emergent

Model of

Issue

Consultant

Shared Model

of Issue Agreed

Yes

No

ProposeWay Forward

Check

Understanding

Outline

Solution

Check

Solution

What has been misunderstood?

Developing a Shared Model


• Organisational Effectiveness Consultancy


EffectivenessInformationSystems

Organisation

Feedback

People

Process, Structure, Decisions

Values, Skills, Behaviours

• Ordnance Survey– ‘risk proximity and resilience mapping’– AI approach


Supply dependency

Delivery dependency

e.g., Power Station

e.g., HT Cable

Asset dependence

Asset Vulnerability

Asset Resilience

GroundRisk

e.g.,Flood;Slip;Subsidence;Erosion; etc

AssetOnward Supply

Onward Delivery

Σ Onward NetworkVulnerability

Asset Criticality

Asset ResilienceAsset CriticalityGround

Criticality=

Asset VulnerabilityAsset CriticalityAsset

ExposureIndex

=Influence: Outfluence:

THIS Asset depends on THAT THAT Asset depends on THIS

• ‘The Neuron’– Applies cybernetics to enable machine learning– Data synthesis to accelerate research– A Probabilistic Classification Engine?– A H Marks – Styrene Inhibition– HSBC – People Selection– Network Rail – natural hazard risk management (in discussion)

– Technology Strategy Board – intelligent transport systems (in discussion)


• Business Intelligence– Haymarket Publishing– Welcome Break– SAP– National Cancer Research Network

• Performance Management Systems– Hewitt Associates ‐ ISO9000– Sunbase Property ‐ ISO9000– Parcelforce ‐ Potentiometer– GNER ‐ Christophers’ Toy– A H Marks – R & D Management


• Information Systems Design and Development– GNER – Overall Architecture– Arena Housing – Information Systems Strategy

• ‘The Data Hut’– Fusion 21 – ERP System, Process Management System– Astra Zeneca – Project Management– Aylesford Newsprint – Performance Simulation– InHealth Group – Performance Simulation & Optimisation– Higher Kings Mill – Costing & Pricing Tool– BBC – Optimisation– SERCO – Shared Service Centre Performance Evaluation– Northumbrian Water – Information Strategy



Understand the informationneeded to manage the business

Business Effectiveness

Develop an Information Strategy

Understand the value to the businessof having that information

Business Financial Performance

Determine what hardware andsystems are needed

Commission Information Projects

Measurethe InformationPayback

Measurethe ValueAdded

Information Projects

• Organisational Effectiveness– Hoverspeed & IOM Steam Packet – structure and organisation– Fusion21 – structure, organisation, behaviour, processes– Arena Housing Group – structure, organisation, behaviour– Northumbrian Water (IS) – structure, organisation, behaviour– Northern Rail (IS) – structure, organisation, behaviour– The Congregation of the Sisters of Nazareth – purpose, structure,

organisation, behaviour, information systems– GNER – organisation, structure, processes– Alpha Trains Gmbh – structure, process, information systems– National Express– Honda



Business Performance

Appraisal

HRM Planning Process

Revise Quality

Manual(s)

Special Processes

Normal Procedures

Qualify Tasks

Document Procedures

Accredit/ APEL

Existing Staff

Validate Procedures

Develop Task Specific

Training

Upskill/ Implement

Training

Validate Training

Skills QMS

Appraisal/ Task

Performance Review

Succession Planning

Career Development

Personal Development/

Generic Training

Identify Key Quality Measures

Identify Key Performance

Measures

Performance QMS

Quality Review

Meetings

Workflow Tracking System

"Internal Audit" (skills & process)

Business Planning Process

Integrate Statutory

Requirements


Planning

Policy

Control

The Viable System Model (adapted)


Question

• What distinguishes ‘Systems Engineering’ from ‘Systemic Engineering’?

systems thinking for national infrastructure...

Documents