THE USEFULLNESS OF CENSUS DATA IN RESEARCH ON HIGHER EDUCATIONR. Michael Haynes, PhDAssistant Vice PresidentTarleton State UniversityStephenville, Texasrhaynes@tarleton.edu 

Gwenn E. Pasco, EdDAssociate DeanUniversity of North TexasDenton, Texasg.pasco@unt.edu

Census data provides a “portrait” of our citizenry

• By location (nation, state, county, city/town,

region)• By race/ethnicity• By age• By income•By level of education

The use of census data in my dissertation,

“A PREDICTIVE MODEL OF HISPANIC PARTICIPATION IN TEXAS HIGHER EDUCATION: INFERENCES DRAWN FROM INSTITUTIONAL DATA IN PREVALENT HISPANIC STATES”

Why was this research important?

•Hispanic population fastest growing in Texas• Hispanics projected to represent

37% of Texas population by 2015 (Texas State Data Center, 2007)

• However, only 3.7% of Hispanic students participated in post-secondary education; lowest of all racial/ethnic groups (Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, 2007).

What was the focus of this research?

• Variables that explained Hispanic college enrollment percentages

•Used 4 independent variables:•Mean cost of attendance (Integrated Post-secondary Education Data System [IPEDS])

•Mean financial aid (IPEDS)•Mean expenditures per student (IPEDS)

AND• Hispanic population percentage at

institution locale (US Census Bureau)

Why include Hispanic population percentage?• Committee member recommended as more

of a “control” variable

• Research indicates the importance of family/community/culture for Hispanics

• Research further indicates that the ability to live at home is critical in the college attendance/selection decision process(Desmond & Turley, n.d.)

•Hispanic population is increasing in Texas (referenced above)

Why include the top 10 Hispanic populated states?• Study related to public 4-year colleges

and/or universities• Only 37 public 4-year colleges and/or universities in Texas….insufficient number of cases

• US Census website used to identify the top 10 Hispanic populated states as of 2000

• California• Texas• New York• Florida• Illinois• Arizona• New Jersey• New Mexico• Colorado• Washington

• This resulted in 190 public 4-year colleges and universities; US Census used to obtain local Hispanic population percentage for the 190 related cities

Findings from our regression model:Hispanic Enrollment % = y + x(COA)

+x(Fin Aid) + x(Exp) + x(Hispanic Population%)• Independent variables accounted for 72.8% of

the variance in Hispanic enrollment % (R² = .728)• A mathematical algorithm was used to

decompose this .728 among the independent variables

• COA, Fin Aid, Exp accounted for just over 12% of the R² value of 72.8%

• Hispanic population at institution locale accounted for 87.78% of the total R² value of 72.8%!!

Implications of this finding:• Reinforces Desmond & Turley’s

(n.d.) research on the importance of being able to live at home

• Reinforces the research on the importance of family/culture/community to Hispanic students

• Identifies US Census data as the most important variable in this study with this population

Implications of this finding:

• Provides higher education administrators, state legislators, and civic leaders with information related to prediction/forecasting• For cities/towns with burgeoning Hispanic

populations…what are the post-secondary options?

• For those cities/towns WITHOUT 4-year institutions, what will be the impact on local community colleges?

• For those cities/towns WITH 4-institutions, will there be sufficient resources in facilities, faculty, staff to accommodate potential increases? If not, again, impact on local community colleges?

• How will Hispanic population increases potentially affect college going rates for other ethnicities/groups?

Some additional thoughts just for Texas!

• Remember our R² of .728 based on public 4-year institutions in the top 10 Hispanic populated states?

• For the 37 Texas public 4-years, that R² increases to .872!

• The passage of Texas House Bill 1403 allows certain undocumented immigrants to qualify for state financial aid….how will potential increases in qualified students affect already strained coffers?

• The trickle down effect on community colleges; 62% of all Texas Hispanic college enrollments occurred at the community college level (THECB, 2008)

In summary:• These implications were identified and

supported by the inclusion of one variable: Hispanic population at the location of each college and/or university in the study….US Census data!

• Arguably, understanding the characteristics of potential students (parent’s education level, family income, migratory patterns, etc….) is the key to effective enrollment management

Additional research that will incorporate US Census data• Hierarchical linear modeling

• Allows researchers to “layer” data to identify differences at various levels

• For example, in the current example, state level data such as Hispanic education levels or median income could be used to determine if differences on the dependent variable (Hispanic enrollment percentage) exists at the state level

Questions?

References

Desmond, M., & Lopez Turley, R. N. (n.d.) The role of familism in explaining the Hispanic-white college application gap [Electronic version]. Texas Higher Education Opportunity Project working paper, Princeton University, retrieved July 12, 2008, from http://www.texastop10.princeton.edu/workingpapers.html

Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (2007). Closing the gaps by 2015: 2007 progress report. Retrieved August 26, 2007, from http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/Reports/

Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer (2007). Texas population projections program. Retrieved August 24, 2007, from http://txsdc.utsa.edu/tpepp/2006projections/

U.S. Census Bureau (2008). U.S. Hispanic population surpasses 45 million: Now 15 percent of total. Retrieved August 3, 2008, from http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/011910.html

 U.S. Census Bureau (2001). The Hispanic population: Census 2000 brief [Electronic version].

U. S. Department of Commerce, Economic and Statistics Adminstration. Retrieved August 3, 2008, from http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-3.pdf