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. WHEN THE BOTTOM DROP OUT(From The Greensboro Daily News)

I am of the opinion that it is verynecessary that we should call the farm»er’s attention to a very serious situationwhich he must face sooner or later.

There is grave danger of his gettingdrunk with the great prosperity nowbeing realized on the farm. If so, hewould likely overlook the fundamentalprinciples that underlie successful farm-ing. Why, who ever dreamed of suchmarvelous prosperity on the farmi, Cot-ton 40 cents per‘pound, tobacco 80 and90 cents and even $1.00 per pound. Whatwill naturally be the inclination of mostfarmers? To go their length in the cul-tivation of cotton and tobacco, and togrow these crops at the expense of foodcrops. What does that mean? A greatloss, and in some cases complete failure.I do not mean to discourage the culti.vation of cotton or‘tobacco, but I domean to say that however successfuleither may be, grown that the greatestprofit cannot be realized from a farmergrowing money crops at the expense offood.

In order to reap the greatest possiblebenefit from this .great wave of agricul-tural prosperity now sweeping over ourland, I would recommend the adoptionof the following:First, let every farmer resolve thathe will not buy a single thing that hecan raise on his farm. Second, let eachone also resolve that he will not buy any-thing for which he cannot pay cash.Third, let them resolve to buy only

through co-operativ'e associations. Ifthese principles are adopted the farmersare unquestionably safe. 'Now, in the first place, farmers can‘ produce their food a great deal cheaperthan they can buy it at present prices.Second, they can save from 50 to 75 percent by paying cash. Third, the bestcash prices are only possible throughco-operative organization.The trouble is this, whatever thefarmer buys on time now and during thegreat period of prosperity, he mustpay the high price of the present forsame at some time in the future, re-gardless of what may happen. Well, sup-’pose cotton should drop from 40 centsto 12 orf15 cents again, and tobacco from90 cents and‘$1.00 to 25 and 30 cents?What would become of the poor fellowwho has to pay for groceries, fertilizer,and other supplies purchased at the timeof these high prices with money obtainedat the latter prices? In my opinion, hewould fare about like a man on a trainin a head-on collision, or a fellow whohad got caught in the path of a great

cyclone. I am not trying to alarm,but warn. I am not a pessimist, but anoptimist. But at the same time I realizethat this “awful day” will surely come,and I wonder who will be able to stand.The man who is caught in the tangle ofdebts made during these prosperoustimes and forced to pay under such un—favorable circumstances will do well toescape total ruin. So let the farmermake hay while the sun shines, for theclouds may now be seen gathering on thedistant horizon. Let him strike whilethe iron is hot, for it may never be asred any more. The philosophy of mywhole theme is this: If this great waveof prosperity should continue, the aboveis the most economic course to take. Ifthe crash should come by the drop inprices the farmers would be unquestion—ab )safe. Then let our motto be:“Safety’first.” It is all right to buyautomobiles after you have purchasedand equipped a good farm and home.You had better not mortgage the landpaid for to buy more during these un-certain times. Better be careful aboutloading up with heavy financial respon-sibilities unless you are sure you seeyour way clearly. Figure closely, plancautiously, and act with great discretion;in other words, be sure you are safeand then go ahead. ,The farmer who is able to make ,-asafe landing under such conditions willbe safe ‘for all time to come. But thefellow who wrecks his ship on, thisgreat sea of prosperity will hardly beable to redeem his boat or even savehimself. If things are bought underthe influence of the present dollar, whichis worth about 33 1-3 per cent, whatwill happen to the fellow who mighthave to pay that debt when it will beworth 100 per cent. The bottom in mostcases will drop out. For instance, sup~pose a man goes in debt $10,000 whilethe inflated dollar is worth only 33 1-3per cent, what would happen, if under re-verse conditions, it should increase invalue to 100 per cent? ‘ Why,’the sameman would have to raise the equivalentto $30,000. 'Why? Because a man whonow receives $150 per month would un-der the new conditions, get about $50 permonth. So it would take him three timesas long to, pay the $10,000 debt. So adebt made now will be three times itspresent value if the bottom should hap-pen to drop out.

' JOHN D. WRAY,Farm Makers’ Club Agent,A. and T. College.Greensboro, Nov. 17, ’19.

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‘EEMBER

( On this fRibbonJ Fifth finnual fieaaian.

Régrethrmers' Eongress,5L 53‘& T. college,

45 AéfeénSbora, H. C.

august; 9th a: 10th, 1923

T””w§Agricultural Build?"ing, A. & T. Gellege*

‘f Greensborc,~N. 6..

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