t4 intro kline_price volatility and food security intro
TRANSCRIPT
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Jan 80 Jan 85 Jan 90 Jan 95 Jan 2000 Jan 05 Jan 10
Crude oil
All commodities
Food commodities
Index: January 2002 = 100
Non-food commodity prices rose more than those for food in the 2008 crisis, relative to 2002
Source: Ron Trostle, ERS; based on International Monetary Fund: International Financial Statistics, Jan 2012p
World Commodity Prices
Visualizing relationships among price indices for different commodities and short term trends can be sensitive to the year chosen to serve as baseline (100)
Chart: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/detail.aspx?chartId=41700&ref=collection&embed=True&widgetId=39734
Grain commodity price volatility is different from food price volatility (US Consumer Food Price Index, CPI) 1976-2012
FAO Low-Income, Food-Deficit Countries price indices for staples
Food Price Index of Selected African Countries during 2007-08 “food price crisis”
Visualizing relationships among price indices for different commodities and short term trends can be sensitive to the year chosen to serve as baseline (100)
FAO global food price index: Averages prices for 5 groups (meat, dairy, cereals, vegetable oils, sugar) weighted by export shares. Index reflects average prices of internationally traded commodities, not the changes in prices for local staples in food-insecure regions.
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FAO Food Outlook October 2014
FAO Food Outlook October 2014
FAO Food Outlook October 2014
Shipping costs can also be volatile
Sudden increases in prices make food less affordable for non-producers such as urban poor but may improve livelihoods in rural economies that depend on agriculture. Sudden declines in prices undermine investment in local food production and supply chains. Price crashes also catalyze rural to urban migration and increase rural poverty and food insecurity. -What is role of bioenergy in food price declines?- Can biofuel policies lea do more stable and predictable food prices that create incentives for local investment in food production are desirable for enhanced food security.
David Laborde, IFPRI (http://www.ifpri.org/staffprofile/david-laborde-debucquet): Brief on Food Price Volatility Indices for Less Developed Nations.
Bruce Babcock, Iowa State University (http://www.card.iastate.edu/facstaff/profile.aspx?id=13): “Impact of US Ethanol Production on Price Volatility”
Harriet Mugera/Christopher Gilbert, Trento University, Italy: “Structural change in the relationship between energy and food prices” (consider the dynamic relationships among oil prices, grain commodity prices, biofuel policies, and food price volatility).