table of contents - liases foras...xyz developer- (nov-xx) 6 chapter i: introduction aim aim of the...

XYZ developer- (Nov-XX)

1

Table of Contents List of Table ................................................................................................................................................. 2

List of Figures .............................................................................................................................................. 3

List of Charts ............................................................................................................................................... 4

Forward ...................................................................................................................................................... 5

Disclaimer ................................................................................................................................................... 5

Chapter I: Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 6

Aim .......................................................................................................................................................... 6

Objective ................................................................................................................................................. 6

Subject-site ............................................................................................................................................. 6

Approach and Methodology ............................................................................................................... 7

Growth pattern and future outlook of thane region ........................................................................... 7

Real estate market dynamics & project appraisal. .............................................................................. 8

Geographical Catchment..................................................................................................................... 8

Chapter II: Panvel Present and Future Prospects ...................................................................................... 10

Site and Site-Location ........................................................................................................................... 10

City Growth and Impact on subject site ................................................................................................ 10

Population ......................................................................................................................................... 10

Future infrastructure improvement and impact on subject site ....................................................... 13

Future Housing Demand assessment ................................................................................................ 18

Chapter III: Site surroundings, Percolation probability and Future Development ................................... 19

Site characteristics ................................................................................................................................ 19

Infrastructure .................................................................................................................................... 23

Proposed and ongoing projects in surroundings ................................................................................... 23

Determining the future supply .......................................................................................................... 24

Projected future supply base upon the construction time line ......................................................... 26

Impact of airport ............................................................................................................................... 26

Chapter: IV: Market Dynamics .................................................................................................................. 30

Macro Market analysis (regional perspective of Real estate markets) ................................................. 30

Micro Market analysis (Competitive location assessment) ................................................................... 32


2

Demand percolation assessment ...................................................................................................... 35

Comparative market analysis ................................................................................................................ 38

Product performance ........................................................................................................................ 40

Chapter: V: Development Strategy ........................................................................................................... 43

Engineering the density ........................................................................................................................ 43

Density creation by bringing the residential end users ..................................................................... 43

Augmenting the density by commercial ........................................................................................... 45

Augmenting the density by creating Resort ...................................................................................... 48

Augmenting the density by Educational institute ............................................................................. 49

Pricing rational ...................................................................................................................................... 50

Development potential ......................................................................................................................... 52

Conceptual phasing and development plan .......................................................................................... 52

List of Table

Table X Population Projections ................................................................................................................. 18

Table X Land demand assessment ............................................................................................................ 18

Table X Proposed projects in and around Panvel ...................................................................................... 25

Table 4 NMIA phasing plan ....................................................................................................................... 27

Table 5 Spatial distance for various sectors to flourish around Airport. ................................................... 28

Table 6 Distance band wise locations ....................................................................................................... 36

Table 7 Comparative analysis of sales and unsold .................................................................................... 39

Table 8 Comparative price movement ...................................................................................................... 39

Table 9 Comparative sales velocity movement ......................................................................................... 39

Table X0 Product performance assessment in the Micro catchment........................................................ 40

Table XX XBHK cost range analysis ............................................................................................................ 41



Table X4 Employ above XXL salary bracket in the catchment ................................................................... 43

Table X5 Probable population can be drawn to subject site ..................................................................... 44

Table X6 Comparative example of Mahindra SEZ- Chennai and Jaipur with subject site .......................... 45

Table X7 IT/ ITsez development considered for deriving co-relation between nearest habitable location

and magnitude of supply .......................................................................................................................... 46

Table X8 Gap in the education sector in India .......................................................................................... 49

Table X9 Maharashtra state education sector demand forecasting ......................................................... 49


3

Table X0 BUA sqft distribution .................................................................................................................. 52

Table XX Residential development mix ..................................................................................................... 55

Table XX Year wise launch strategy residential ......................................................................................... 56

Table XX Assumptions for finical modeling ............................................................................................... 58

Table X4 Financial analysis ........................................................................................................................ 59

Table X5 Financial analysis summary ........................................................................................................ 60

List of Figures

Figure X Site location Plan........................................................................................................................... 7

Figure X Micro catchment definition .......................................................................................................... 9

Figure X Khalapur sub Region location in MMR ........................................................................................ 10

Figure 4 Thane Municipal Corporation ..................................................................................................... 10

Figure 5 Spatial diffusion pattern of Population and growth direction based upon the population density.

.................................................................................................................................................................. 11

Figure 6 Proposed Rail Infrastructure in MMR .......................................................................................... 15

Figure 7 Proposed Karjat Panvel passenger rail line ................................................................................. 15

Figure 8 Proposed Road network improvement in MMR ......................................................................... 16

Figure 9 Site location in context of MMR .................................................................................................. 19

Figure X0 Site accessibility and surrounding infrastructre ........................................................................ 20

Figure XX Present land use of the site and surroundings .......................................................................... 20

Figure XX Topography site sections .......................................................................................................... 21

Figure XX Slope analysis and development zone classification ................................................................. 22

Figure X4 Plateau- X photographs looking towards express highway ....................................................... 23

Figure X5 Plateau- X photograph looking towards Matheran hill and old Mumbai Pune Highway ........... 23

Figure X6 Tentative location of proposed development ........................................................................... 24

Figure X7 Comparative impact assessment of airports in MMR to ascertain the futre demand arround

NMIA ......................................................................................................................................................... 28

Figure X8 Impact of proposed NMIA ......................................................................................................... 29

Figure X9 Typical development strategy followed in Mahindra Sez.......................................................... 45

Figure X0 BUA percentage wise distribution ............................................................................................. 52


4

List of Charts Chart XPopulation growth in Panvel (PMC+NMP) .................................................................................... 12

Chart X Trend of CAGR in Panvel (PMC+NMP) .......................................................................................... 12

Chart X Comparative analysis of incremental population from X97X to X0XX .......................................... 13

Chart 4 Regional Improvement Analysis ................................................................................................... 17

Chart 5 Comparison of X0- most improving location by X0X0 .................................................................. 17

Chart 6 Future market composition based upon the analysis ................................................................... 26

Chart 7 MMR market sales-inventory-price .............................................................................................. 30

Chart 8 Price and Productivity in MMR ..................................................................................................... 31

Chart 9 Suburb wise sales composition as on Sep-XX ............................................................................... 31

Chart X0 Suburb wise unsold composition as on Sep-XX .......................................................................... 31

Chart XX Suburb wise sales-inventory and months inventory .................................................................. 32

Chart XX Sales composition in the micro market Sep-XX .......................................................................... 33

Chart XX Unsold composition in the micro market Sep-XX ....................................................................... 33

Chart X4 Micro market with perspective of sold unsold and moths inventory ......................................... 33

Chart X5 Business turnover in the micro market ...................................................................................... 34

Chart X6 Price and Productivity in the micro catchment .......................................................................... 35

Chart X7 Distance band wise sales movement.......................................................................................... 36

Chart X8 Distance band wise supply composition .................................................................................... 37

Chart X9 Distance band wise price movement ......................................................................................... 38

Chart X0 Distance to size of the project co-relation.................................................................................. 48

Chart XX Year on Year launch plan ............................................................................................................ 53

Chart XX Percentage Distribution of economic activity ............................................................................ 54

Chart XX BUA distribution of various economic activity ........................................................................... 54

Chart X4 Year on Year launch plan ............................................................................................................ 54

Chart X5 Phase X residential launch plan .................................................................................................. 56




5

Forward

Liases Foras was approached by XYZ developer to conduct Feasibility Study and Best Use Analysis which helps them to take decision on future development plan for the land located at the Shedung, Panvel, District Raigad.

The site admeasuring XX0 acres is being considered for development for various purposes that is residential, retail, IT/ Non IT etc. Although its learnt from the XYZ developer that they want to go for the development of just XX7.0X acre applied for under Special Township Policy of Government of Maharashtra. The study had been instituted at macro and micro level. Looking at the scale of development project modeling is developed on the time scale with reference to future dynamics of product change and price appreciations.

While, there are many ways to arrive at the price dynamics, we have considered rationales which according to urban economics are most crucial for success of any location. All the recommendations and suggestions mentioned in the report are directly or indirectly governed by scientifically laid down theories and methodologies of Urban Economics. We hope the report will be helpful to Running Acres Estate Pvt. Ltd to get a grip on the local market before commencing the project.

Disclaimer

The information provided in this report is based on the data collected by Liases Foras. Liases Foras has taken due care in the collection of the data. However, Liases Foras does not warranty the correctness of the information provided in this report.

The report is available only on "as is" basis and without any warranties express or implied. Liases Foras disclaims all warranties including the implied warranty of merchantability and fitness for any purpose.

Without prejudice to the above, Liases Foras will not be liable for any damages of any kind arising from the use of this report , including, but not limited to direct, indirect, incidental, punitive, special, consequential and/ or exemplary damages including but not limited to, damages for loss of profit goodwill resulting from:

The incorrectness and/or inaccuracy of the information available on or through the Site

Any action taken, proceeding initiated, transaction entered into on the basis of the information available in this report

Terms of usage,

Except as expressly permitted below, users of this report should not copy, modify, alter, reverse engineer, disassemble, sell, transfer, rent, license, publish, distribute, disseminate or otherwise allow access to all or any of the Information.


6

Chapter I: Introduction

Aim Aim of the study is to carry out the best use analysis, market feasibility report with growth pattern and future outlook of the subject-site with objectives of:

Objective The potential of the subject-site with regards to all the formats of Real Estate such as Residential, Commercial, Retail, and Hospitality sectors.

Recommendation on the relative shares of residential, retail and commercial, hotel, and educational development, at the subject-site.

Specific recommendations regarding products, price and amenities.

Specific timelines for various development elements (phase wise development)

Determining the market efficient achievable outright / lease rates for various elements

A detailed financial model for various options to be calculated that is Total Revenue, Total Cost, Monthly Cashflow, Peak Negative Cashflow, Equity & Debt component, Return on Investment, Return on Equity, NPV, IRR

Subject-site The subject-site is located in the extreme fringe of Panvel Municipal Council at Shedung, Panvel. The site has an access from Old Pune highway and is surrounded by the Forrest area on its three sides. Site has few dynamic features such as a manmade lake, four plateaus at different level with distinguish character and view.


7

Figure 1 Site location Plan

(Source: Liases Foras)

Approach and Methodology Approach to study will be divided into two key components,

a.) Growth pattern and future outlook of Panvel region and

b.) Real estate market dynamics & project appraisal.

Growth pattern and future outlook of thane region

The human spatial mobility to a specific region depends on the internal magnet of the region and external factors influencing it, which is the business districts and infrastructure connecting convenience into day to day life.

Land use, population, economic profile of the area, demographic profiles of the population to be mapped for Thane regions and sub regions. Existing physical and social infrastructure, proposed infrastructure projects etc to be mapped as per time scales.

Understanding and evaluation of future impact on real estate market by estimating change in size of business districts, improvement in Infrastructure, etc. based upon the various scenario methods ranging from pessimistic growth to highly optimistic growth.


8

Real estate market dynamics & project appraisal

Trends and pattern of real estate market will be subjected to two key components, performances of adjoining markets (macro market perspective) and performance of local market (micro market perspective).

Macro market perspective: To understand the real estate market behaviour trend and respectively impact on the Thane market, Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) is defined as Macro Catchment.

Micro market perspective: To overcome the limitation of macro market analysis and validate the key findings it is very much important to revaluate the findings with micro level catchment analysis.

Catchment Analysis: Detailed understanding of the projects within the range of 5 km with respect to project performance, sales, inventory, months inventory, sales velocity, business turn over, etc. Following will be the key questions which we will try to answer with the help of this study.

What is the size of supply and absorption and how is the future outlook?

What should be the efficient price at which market maintains momentum?

What is the outlook of the supply and demand?

Geographical Catchment Macro catchment definition: Entire MMR region with regard to commercial, retail, hospitality and education market assessment.

Micro catchment definition: Micro catchment consists of Vashi, Sanpada, Belapur, Kharghar, Owe, Taloja, Kalmboli, Panvel, Ulwe etc. Red boundary in the following map defines the micro catchment within MMR.


9

Figure 2 Micro catchment definition



10

Chapter II: Panvel Present and Future Prospects

Site and Site-Location Subject site is located on the extreme South- East sub region of MMR, known as Khalapur Sub-Region, Red marked area in figure-X shows the Khalapur Sub-Region.

Khalapur sub region is located adjoining to the Panvel Sub-region; figure- 4 shows the location of Panvel Municipal Council (PMC) boundary and New Panvel boundary which is developed under CIDCO. Subject-Site is located approximately 6Km away from the PMC boundary.

Figure 3 Khalapur sub Region location in MMR


Figure 4 Thane Municipal Corporation


City Growth and Impact on subject site

Population The demographic characteristics which are the emerging trend in population growth, its characteristics, spatial distribution, are sure to have a profound influence on the structure and size of the city. It is therefore essential and important to study the dynamics of population growth and structure of city. The analysis is expected to reflect questions such as

What is the spatial population growth direction in MMR?

What is the prevailing population base in the Panvel Municipal council (PMC) and Navi Mumbai Panvel (NMP)?

What could be the future rate of growth in PMC and NMP?

What will be the future requirement of Housing in the region?


11

Spatial diffusion characteristics

Spatial diffusion pattern of population in MMR is concentrated towards the Northern region (Vasai-Virar) and North-East direction towards Kalyan- Dombiwali.

Figure 5 Spatial diffusion pattern of Population and growth direction based upon the population density.


Future pattern for the spatial diffusion can be evaluated based upon the following two aspects.

X. Natural expansion due to improvement in the connectivity (or convenient) and unaffordability of real estate in the hinterland i.e. increasing population density in the Northern region (extended western suburb).

Site location

5km

10km

20km

30km

40km


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X. Percolation from highly unaffordable developed urban area to affordable developing urban regions, i.e. development towards the Kalyan- Dombivali.

In both the given conditions, the likely chances of forced development in the Panvel region seems difficult as Navi Mumbai can still accommodate the population with affordable price range and convenience. Moreover, there is no emerging or developing urban area in the region.

Present population in Navi Mumbai Panvel and Panvel municipal council

Population in the region of Navi Mumbai Panvel is increasing by the 9.06% CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) from X00X to X0XX, while the Panvel Municipal council population is increased by 5.66% CAGR from X00X to X0XX.

Population in the Panvel Urban area (NMP+PMC) was X,85,9X7 souls in X00X which increased to X,75,46X souls in X0XX with the CAGR of 7.X8%.

Chart 1Population growth in Panvel (PMC+NMP)

(Source: Respective Year Census Data)

Chart 2 Trend of CAGR in Panvel (PMC+NMP)

(Source: Respective Year Census Data)

Population growth in the Panvel triggered after X99X after the quality of infrastructure and connectivity improved at Panvel. CAGR of the Panvel urban area is maximum in the entire MMR, although we cannot neglect the base effect in case of Panvel because the population base was so less that a minor increase also shows maximum growth.

050

100150200250300350400

1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Tho

usa

nd

s

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

CAGR 71-81

CAGR 81-91

CAGR 91-2001

CAGR2001-11


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Chart 3 Comparative analysis of incremental population from X97X to X0XX


Comparative incremental increase graph between the Thane Municipal Corporation (TMC), Kalyan Dombivali Municipal corporation (KDMC), Vasai Virar Municipal corporation (VVMC), Navi Mumbai Municipal corporation (NMMC), Ullasnagar Municipal Corporation (UMC) and Panvel urban area (PMC+NMP) show that although the growth rate of population in Panvel is highest (7.X8%) but the absolute increase in the population is X,89,546.

Panvel percentage of incremental increase is maximum in the defined municipal corporation, this suggest that population growth may continue in the region provided there is better infrastructure and connectivity in the region.

Future infrastructure improvement and impact on subject site

Growth of a region is dependent upon parameters like infrastructure improvement, zoning or land use regulation and increase in economic activity. However, to ascertain growth of the various regions, we have primarily focused only on the improvements that are expected to occur in various regions to improved connectivity in MMR.

To access future improvement on proposed development, reduction in travel time is calculated based upon the improvement in the infrastructure. Lower Parel is considered to be a destination point, as the net intensity of the economic activity in MMR falls towards island city which draws maximum number of employees.

The sub regions that have high reduction in travel time to and from the Island city due to infrastructure development will have higher chances of growth in future.

262 238 194 117 32 17327

213 20462 82

35109

10

322 378

149 189108

103

47

467 373

297 317

345106

101

556

53

519 415

29415

190

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

TMC KDMC VVMC NMMC MBMC UMC Panvel

Tho

usa

nd

s

Base POP 1971 Increment from 1971-1981 Increment from 1981-1991

Increment from 1991-2001 Increment from 2001-2011


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Subject site location and future development

As we discussed in the beginning of the chapter, the subject site is located in the Khalapur sub region of the MMR. The comparative growth percentage for the Khalapur is derived based upon the improvement (reduction in travel time) due to proposed infrastructure.


15

Figure 6 Proposed Rail Infrastructure in MMR


Figure 7 Proposed Karjat Panvel passenger rail line

As per the X5th May X0XX, Hindustan Times- Mumbai edition; “Mumbai Railway Vikas Corporation (MRVC) has approved a feasibility study for the extension of the line between Panvel and Karjat. This means that Harbour line services could be extended up to Karjat and suburban trains could run between Panvel and Karjat in the future.

Subject site


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As per the proposed plan document, the Railway line supposed to be started by January X0XX and end by December X0X5.

Figure 8 Proposed Road network improvement in MMR


Considering the proposed road development at regional level, there is no sign of further improvement of the road adjoining the subject site, although the cumulative improvement of the network may reduce the travel time.

Development of the Trans Harbour link will be the key development for improved road connectivity to the Lower Parel as the travel time will reduce drastically. As per the development plan time lines, Trans Harbour link should be started by end of June X0XX and should get completed by end of June X0X8.

Comparative infrastructure impact assessment on Khalapur region

Maximum reduction in the travel time means maximum improvement from the preliminary analysis output; sub-region like Uran, Khopate, Panvel and rest of the Uran region will be getting maximum benefit out of this development.


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Chart 4 Regional Improvement Analysis


The above chart clearly indicates that the maximum improvement will be in the Uran, Khopate, Panvel and rest of the Uran region post that Pen, Rasayani- Panvel and rest of the Panvel will have better connectivity. The Khalapur sub-region where our subject site is located will have lesser improvement than above mentioned locations and better than the remaining regions of MMR.

Further to understand the time line base important, ten (X0) highly affected regions are compared below.

Chart 5 Comparison of X0- most improving location by X0X0


Development time line shows the maximum change in improvement post X0X8. One cannot deny the fact that the Trans Harbour link is very important for the growth of this region.

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2012 2014 2018 2020 2022 2025 2026 2030

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2012 2014 2018 2020 2022 2025 2026 2030

Pen Region Rest Panvel Sub Region Rasayani - Panvel Khalapur Sub Region

Khalapur Sub Region Uran Sub - Region Khopta Sub Region Panvel Sub - Region

Rest Uran Sub Region NMMC (Excl. 15 Villages)


18

Future Housing Demand assessment

Improving convenience and employment opportunity will always create ‘pull’ factor for the population which will eventually lead to increasing demand for the housing.

As we have already discussed, the improved connectivity in the region is definitely going to act as the population growth driving factor. Presently, Panvel (NMP+PMC) has shown the population growth at 7.X8 CAGR, considering the infrastructure improvement and the historical trend of the CAGR in Panvel, we can say that the growth may remain in range of 6.0% to 7.0% for next X0 years (i.e. till X0XX). As in X0XX population base is going to increase this rate will further decrease and remain in the range of 6.5% to 5.5% between X0XX and X0XX.

Future projection for the Panvel region is developed by considering the growth of 6% in the years of X0XX to X0XX while, 5% growth in the years of X0XX to X0XX.

Table 1 Population Projections

Population

Incremental increase in population

Demand of houses considering House Hold size of 4.5

Population X0XX X,85,9X7

Projected Population for X0XX @ 6% CAGR 6,78,767 4,9X,850 X,09,5XX

Projected Population for X0XX @ 5% CAGR XX,X7,640 4,58,87X X,0X,97X


The projection for the future housing indicate that for next X0 years there will be population increase of 4,9X,850; considering the house hold size of 4.5 demand for housing will be X,09,5XX in the period of X0XX-X0XX; where else in the period of X0XX-X0XX population will be increased by 4,58,87X person which turns out to be demand for X,0X,97X housing units. Cumulative housing demand in the next X0 years will turn out to be X,XX,494 housing units in the Panvel region.

Table 2 Land demand assessment

Housing demand BUA required Land Future land requirement in acres

X09,5XX.XX 7,66,65,6X0 5,XX,X0,4XX X956

X0X,97X.59 7,XX,80,XX6 4,75,86,744 X8XX


Land requirement for the overall development will be X776 acres (X5X8Ha) by considering the FSI is X.5 and Residential will be the 60% of overall development.


19

Chapter III: Site surroundings, Percolation probability and Future Development

This chapter primarily talks about the location and surroundings of the subject site and assessment of subject site with reference to its topography, accessibility, availability of basic infrastructure at subject site.

The chapter also assesses probable chance of percolation of population density to subject site by playing with cost arbitrage, and determines the market movement in the future considering the development of proposed projects on various time lines.

Site characteristics Subject site is located approximately 5XKm away from the Lower Parel and X4km away from the Panvel located in the Khalapur sub region of MMR. Subject site admeasures around XX0 acres of land. Site is under the development jurisdiction of Raigad district.

Figure 9 Site location in context of MMR


The subject site is accessible from the old Mumbai-Pune highway, with possibility of multiple entries to subject site; although there is just one entry point at present. There are three critical elements in the proximity of the subject site; an education institute, a fuel station and a resort.

Subject site


20

Figure 10 Site accessibility and surrounding infrastructure


The subject site is located in the Green Zone, surrounded by the forest land with undulating terrain. Key advantage of the subject site is the ‘scenic beauty’ of the location with no development permission in the surrounding area. Net maximum elevation considering the level ±0.0 at express highway is X75mt.

Figure 11 Present land use of the site and surroundings


Aayush

Resort

Fuel

station

Education

Institute


21

Figure 12: Topography site sections


A

A

B

B

C

C

D

D

E

E


22

Perceptual topography analysis distinguishes the site into three component favourable zone for development (approximately X5% of total site area), semi-development zone (approximately 40% of total site area) and unfavorable zone for development.

Based upon the topographical analysis, we suggest that the site is divided into four plateaus.

Plateau-X is at the lowest level having direct connectivity old Mumbai-Pune high way one of the largest flat terrain available for development on the subject site.

Plateau- X is a rectilinear in nature, situated on +XX0.0mt above considering old Mumbai Pune high way as ±0.0 with the view of the forest on the southern side.

Plateau- X is located on the western edge of the subject site, at level +XX5mt considering level ±0.0 on old Mumbai Pune highway.

Plateau-4 is the highest point on the subject side divided into two parts Plateau-4a and Plateau- 4b situated at an average level of +X75 mt considering level ±0.0 on old Mumbai Pune highway.

Figure 13 Slope analysis and development zone classification


Unfavora

Favorable

Semi-

Plateau- 1 Plateau

- 2

Plateau- 4a

Plateau- 4b

Plateau- 3


23

Figure 14 Plateau- X photographs looking towards express highway


Figure 15 Plateau- X photograph looking towards Matheran hill and old Mumbai Pune Highway


Infrastructure The subject site is located in the fringe area of the Panvel Municipal council and Navi Mumbai. Panvel is approximately X4 Km away from the main city, this clearly indicates that the infrastructure need to be developed by the developers.

For provision of water supply, there are already one manmade lake and one well for the water supply. In terms of electricity developer can directly approach the supplier as HIRCO- Hiranandani Palace Garden, Panvel has signed an MoU with Tata Power, similarly for other physical infrastructure one have to build a MoU with respective suppliers to facilitate the end users.

Proposed and ongoing projects in surroundings

Panvel and its surroundings are widely discussed as the future destination for real estate investment as well as for residents due to proposed Trans harbor link and Navi Mumbai Airport. In the given condition there is a chance of oversupply in the market. However, the positive side is, ‘if so many projects take off, supply will itself bring the demand’. To understand the issues related future market we have drawn the following analysis based upon the collected information on future proposed project and approximate land area of the project.


24

Figure 16 Tentative location of proposed development

(source: Liases Foras)

Determining the future supply

The analysis is drawn based upon the six key parameters to access the future supply of the market. The criteria are possible type of development based upon size of the land parcel, amount of supply it proposed projects will bring into the market under residential category, yearly possible construction for each type of project, required time line for the completion of construction and the most important aspect ‘year of project launch’.

How we analyze the type of development

Development type is derived from the information collected through various stack holders and then appraised based upon the land area. (i.e. if the land area is greater than or equal to X00 acres than the project will be launched as a township project. )

Calculation for area under residential

In case of pure residential development FSI is calculated at X.5, with loading of +XX% is considered, while for township project, the area of commercial is deducted based upon the revised township policy (if the land area is less than X47 acres X5% of BUA will be commercial, if the land area is greater than X47 acres and less than 494 acres X0% of BUA will be commercial and if the land area is greater than 494 acres X5% of BUA will be commercial.) FSI is considered at X.X with +XX% loading.

Per year construction Per year construction is derived based upon the prevailing construction practice and assumption ‘large the land parcel faster the construction’

Launch date Launch date is assumed from the industry information and prevailing past pattern of project launch.


25

Table 3 Proposed projects in and around Panvel

Pro

ject

s

Pro

bab

le

De

velo

pm

ent

Tota

l lan

d a

rea

in a

cres

Are

a u

nd

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Res

iden

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in

mill

ion

sq

ft

Ten

tati

ve d

ate

for

star

tin

g

con

stru

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ns

Ass

um

ed p

er

Year

co

nst

ruct

ion

in

sqft

Req

uir

ed y

ear

for

com

ple

tio

n

of

resi

den

tial

Ten

tati

ve d

ates

fo

r en

d o

f

con

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n

HIRCO SEZ Commercial X50 -

X0X4 844X45 0 X0X4

HIRCO Commercial

Commercial XX -

X0X0 X655X8 0 X0X0

HIRCO Residential

Township X50 X0.8X X008 5XX966 X0 X0X8

Indiabulls Greens

Residential 80 6.79 X008 XX5000 XX X0X0

Indiabulls Golf Residential 5X 4.4X X0XX XX78X4 X9 X0XX

Kalpataru Residential XX X.86 X007 XX4400 X4 X0XX

Marathon Residential 5X 4.4X X0X0 XX78X4 X9 X0X9

Neelkhant-Harigramkevale

Township X54 XX.XX X0XX 5454XX X0 X0XX

Neelkhant-Pale Township XX0 7.94 X0X5 4084X4 X9 X0X4

K Raheja Universal

Residential X0 X.69 X0X5 XX8X7X XX X0X8

Entertainment city

Township 600 40.77 X0X4 X9X4X7X XX X0X5

Mumbai IT and Telecom city

Township 600 40.77 X0X5 X9X4X7X XX X046

Energy city Township 600 40.77 X0X0 X9X4X7X XX X05X

Vijay Wadhwa Residential X5 X.97 X0X4 X74879 X7 X0XX

Urban Infra Residential XX0 X0.X9 X0X7 4X955X XX X040

Urban Infra X Township X66 X8.07 X0XX 894X66 X0 X04X

Akruti-X Township X000

67.95 X0X6 XX79690 XX X0X7

Akruti-X Township X00 X0.X8 X0X4 X0000X4 X0 X0X4

Akruti-X Township 800 54.X6 X0X7 X5569XX XX X0X8

Akruti-4 Township 800 54.X6 X0X8 X5569XX XX X0X9

Mayfair Residential 5 0.4X X0XX 8X466 5 X0X8 (Source: Liases Foras)


26

Projected future supply base upon the construction time line

Future supply is projected based upon the two key assumptions; Panvel market share can be increase from 4% to maximum X8% of total market share as the present developed market of Navi Mumbai and Extended Central Suburb (X4% to X8%).

The second key assumption considered to project the sales is, ‘market cycle’. Real estate market cycle move from efficient market to inefficient market and vice versa.

Chart 6 Future market composition based upon the analysis


Market will be moving towards efficient phase from X0X6 and inefficiency from X0X0. The key point to be considering here is the market share of a project should not be increased more than X5%.

Impact of airport In case of the proposed development the second most critical and influential project on the development of Panvel and its surrounding region is ‘Navi Mumbai International Airport’ (NMIA). The key question here is: “will the development of NMIA have any significant amount of impact on the subject site?”

To answer this question we have carried out the spatial analysis of existing Mumbai International Airport and its influence.

Phasing of proposed Navi Mumbai airport

NMIA project is divided into four phase, operation period of phase X will start from X0X8 as per the proposed development information as per feasibility study for NMIA by The Louis Berger Group Inc. and CIDCO.

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Market Supply increment


27

As per the feasibility study report, following are the key highlights of the Phase plan.

Phase X (X0XX-X4 to X0X6-X7): In Phase X, the airport is initially designed with a level of service adequate to satisfy the demand of X0 million passengers. This is accomplished by providing NMIA with one runway and one processing terminal building with one associated pier for both domestic and international passengers

Phase X (X0X7-X8 to X0XX-XX): The Phase X development at the airport is designed to meet the demand for X5 million passengers. In this phase, an additional runway is built to meet airside demand along with one processing building with one associated pier for both domestic and international passengers.

Phase X (X0XX-XX to X0X6-X7): The Phase X development of the airport is designed with a level of service adequate to satisfy a 45 million passenger’s demand by adding a parallel pier within the terminal building complex so one handles domestic and the other international passengers.

Phase 4 (X0X7-X8 to X0XX-XX): The airport is ultimately designed with a level of service adequate to satisfy a 60 million passenger’s demand by providing NMIA with additional boarding gates and apron area to satisfy the additional demand.

Table 4 NMIA phasing plan

Phase/Year Phase X Phase X Phase X Phase 4

(X0X6-X7) (X0XX-XX) (X0X6-X7) (X0XX-XX)

Runway dimensions X700m X 60m

(Runway-X) X700m X 60m (Runway-

X) - - Passenger Terminal

Area (sq.mt.) XXX,X6X X7X,0X0 4XX,X05 459,486 Capacity (MPPA) X0 X5 45 60

Cargo Terminal Area (sq.mt.) XX,994 47,598 77,X69 X0X,46X Capacity (tons) X6X,954 57X,X76 X,X57,5X5 X,49X,946 Aircraft hangars 4 4 6 XX

(Source: CIDCO)

Impact assessment study To access the impact due to development of NMIA, we have studied the existing situation of CSIT Mumbai. The study inferred the impact into the three segments; High impact zone limited to XKm to 5Km from Airport- the high impact zone will cater the all necessary demand for Airport to perform such as, hospitality, retail, offices etc; The medium impact zone has the probability of attracting few tourist at lower lease rental- the zone impact will be upto 9 Km while the remaining region


28

will only have advantage that they have accessibility to airport which is defined as Low/ No impact zone.

Figure 17: Comparative impact assessment of airports in MMR to ascertain the futre demand arround NMIA


Nature of demand based upon the proposed Airport

The Airport will bring in demand mostly related to the hospitality sector, closely followed by housing, commercial or other sectors.

Table 5 Spatial distance for various sectors to flourish around Airport.

Sector Probable distance from Entry point of Airport

Hospitality, Convention center etc Xkm to XKm

Housing for Airport Employee 5Km

Office space for Cargo Consultant XKm to XKm

Regional Offices of International consulting firms 7Km to 9 Km


The analysis suggests that the maximum distance for percolating demand will be limited to 7Km to 9Km. Taking this into account our subject site is located around X4Km, which means at present condition in Mumbai and keeping airport into the center, Kandivali (E) is located at the distance of XXKm to X4Km. Does Kandivali have any impact of CSIT apart from the notion that we have accessibility to the airport?

Lower Parel CBD

High

Mediu

Low/

High

Mediu

Low/

Subject site


29

Figure 18 Impact of proposed NMIA


It is quite clear that the demand will be in the immediate catchment of 7Km to 9Km as it is the only point at our subject site where the residents would have the notional satisfaction that they are closer to the airport.


30

Chapter: IV: Market Dynamics

The chapter discussed about the market efficiency at regional level as well as micro catchment level to answer the following questions:

What is the regional level (MMR) environment for real estate development?

Is the same trends also followed by the local (Panvel) market?

What is the trend of Panvel market with reference to price and productive?

What percentage of market share is contributed by Panvel considering the entire MMR?

How Panvel market is performing against the other locations of Navi Mumbai?

Will Panvel able to attract demand percolation from Navi Mumbai?

What product and cost range is performing best in the Panvel market?

Macro Market analysis (regional perspective of Real estate markets)

Regional market perspective helps us to understand the overall real estate market condition with reference to its performance, sales, inventory and price movements.

Chart 7 MMR market sales-inventory-price


MMR market is getting worse as the price and inventory keeps increasing and sales continues to decline.

0

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4000

6000

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12000

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InventoryIndex SalesIndex


31

Chart 8 Price and Productivity in MMR


Price and productivity Any efficient market will try to maintain X.75% of sales velocity. The MMR market has shown constant decline in the velocity from the June X009 to September X0XX. Reason behind the constant decline is the user’s unaffordability as against the constant price increase from Rs 5,784 per sqft in June X009 to Rs XX,X84 per sqft in September X0XX where the velocity declined from X.86% to X.X77%.

Market sales composition Maximum sale in the market is contributed by the Navi Mumbai and Central Extended Suburb as against the maximum unsold which is available in the Western Suburbs. Panvel contributes 4% of the MMR market share.

Chart 9 Suburb wise sales composition as on Sep-XX


Chart 10 Suburb wise unsold composition as on Sep-XX


5649 53535784 6026

71297667

88788447

92279711 10021

10559108421117811384

1.43%

3.86%

3.24%

2.55%2.33%

2.18%2.04%1.71%1.57%

1.39%1.55%

1.26%1.33%1.53%

1.37%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Mar09

Jun 09 Sep09

Dec09

Mar10

Jun 10 Sep10

Dec10

Mar11

Jun 11 Sep11

Dec11

Mar12

Jun 12 Sep12

PriceIndex SalesVelocity

Island city9%

Panvel4%

Central Suburb

10%

Western Suburb

15%

Western Extended Suburb

16%Thane11%

Central Suburb

Ext17%

Navi Mumbai

18%

Island city15%

Panvel6%

Central Suburb

13%

Western Suburb

20%

Western Extended

Suburb13%

Thane9%

Central Suburb

Ext13%

Navi Mumbai

11%


32

Chart 11 Suburb wise sales-inventory and months inventory


The comparative analysis of sales-inventory and months inventory suggest that markets like Thane, Central Extended Suburb and Navi Mumbai are better performing than rest of the suburbs. The most volatile market for investment is Island city where the months inventory is as high as 60 followed by Panvel where one can see the inventory of 54 months. Island city is already a grown and matured market as against the Panvel which is just an emerging market with an oversupply scenario. Even the price bracket offer by the Panvel market is way below that of Island city.

Macro market analysis can only emphasize the corresponding risk attached to the market. It is very much important to dig deep enough before reaching any conclusion. Micro market analysis and Spatial analysis may help to answer the questions related to the market performance the possible way for development.

Micro Market analysis (Competitive location assessment)

The definition of micro market or the competitive locations is based upon the geographical region’s proximity to Panvel. Entire Navi Mumbai region is defined as the competitive location for the Panvel region.

Market sales composition Maximum sale during the September quarter X0XX is registered in Kharghar followed by Panvel region. It is noteworthy that maximum unsold stock is available in Panvel, whereas in an ideal condition it should be in Kharghar.

X9.XX

8.XX

X7.X0

X6.55

X8.07

XX.X5

X8.XXX6.X4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Island city Panvel CentralSuburb

WesternSuburb

WesternExtended

Suburb

Thane CentralSuburb Ext

Navi Mumbai

Mill

ion

s

Sales Inventory MonthsInventory (RHS)


33

Chart 12 Sales composition in the micro market Sep-XX


Chart 13 Unsold composition in the micro market Sep-XX


These contrasting compositions highlight the threat of oversupply in the Panvel. Moreover, the prices are not lucrative enough to attract the investments.

Chart 14 Micro market with perspective of sold unsold and moths inventory


Business turnover Maximum business turnover in the September quarter is registered in Kharghar, Ulwe and Panvel.

Airoli3%

Dronagiri0%

Ghansoli0% Kalamboli

13%

Kamothe15%

Karanjade2%

Kharghar25%

Koparkhairane1%

Nerul3%

Sanpada0%

Taloja4%

Ulwe13%

Vashi0%

Panvel21%

Airoli5%

Ghansoli1% Kalamboli

10%

Kamothe7%

Karanjade3%

Kharghar16%

Koparkhairane0%

Nerul5%

Sanpada0%

Taloja5%

Ulwe11%Vashi

0%

Panvel35%

0.33 1.15

0.08 0.14

8.28

1.10

2.28

0.83 0.08

1.32

4.01

1.79

2.93

0.11 -

50

100

150

200

250

300

- 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00

Inventory Sep-12 quarter sales Months Inventory


34

Chart 15 Business turnover in the micro market


Price movement We have seen that the maximum business turnover is at Kharghar, Ulwe, Panvel, Kamothe and Kalamboli. Considering the price movement and the yearly appreciation, Kalmboli has shown the maximum appreciation of XX% from December X0XX to September X0XX, while Panvel, Kharghar and Kamothe have shown the increase of XX% on annual base in last XX months. Although, Ulwe has shown the maximum business turnover in last quarter, the price appreciation in the location is just 6% as the location is developing location.

Location Sep-XX Dec-XX Mar-XX Jun-XX Sep-XX YoY change

Airoli 6,X90 6,X96 6,XXX 6,5X4 6,506 X%

Ghansoli 6,XX7 6,X00 6,X5X 6,X0X 6,704 X0%

Koparkhairane 7,764 7,8X5 8,XX8 8,587 8,6X5 X0%

Vashi 6,8X7 6,84X 7,700 8,X00 X6,0XX XX4%

Sanpada XX,000 XX,000 XX,500 X0,XX5 X0,X68 -8%

Nerul 9,946 XX,XX6 XX,6XX XX,659 XX,779 X4%

Kharghar 5,478 5,595 5,6X9 6,055 6,X74 XX%

Kamothe 4,554 4,676 4,788 5,078 5,XX5 XX%

Kalamboli 4,49X 4,88X 5,04X 5,X07 5,9XX XX%

Taloja X,556 X,4X8 X,6X7 X,69X X,770 X0%

Khanda Colony

X,800 X,800 X,800 X,800 X,800 0%

Panvel X,895 4,0X4 4,067 4,X90 4,504 XX%

Ulwe 4,X60 4,X48 4,479 4,47X 4,6X0 6%

Dronagiri NA NA NA X,67X X,690

Price Productivity Price movement in the micro market shown increase of Rs 987 per sqft from December X0X0 to September X0XX as against the sales velocity

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50

100

150

200

250

300


35

decline from the X.XX% in December X0X0 to X.55% in September X0XX.

Chart 16 Price and Productivity in the micro catchment


Price in micro market increases at a slow pace as compared to the MMR and velocity is keep declining. This suggests the overall slowdown in the market and the lack of ‘effective demand’. In a nutshell, market is witnessing an oversupply.

Demand percolation assessment

In the given condition where market is under correction and slow down, the key question arises, ‘can we garner demand for our subject site’? To access the future probability of a natural shift of demand and analysis of sales; inventory and price are derived at various distance bands on half yearly basis. Entire Micro Market is spread from X4Km distance to 66Km distance band (distance is calculated from Lower Parel). Entire sprawl is divided into X4 distance band to retrospect the market demand.

Entire Micro Market is spread from X4Km distance to 66Km distance band (distance is calculated from Lower Parel). Entire sprawl is divided into X4 distance band to retrospect the market demand.

45334989 4999 5142 5363 5173 5313 55202.22%

1.73%1.51%

1.16% 1.15% 1.22%

1.66%1.55%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12

Sum of Price Sum of sales velocity


36

Table 6 Distance band wise locations

Distance Band Locations Distance Band

Locations

X4Km-X7Km Kalamboli, Kharghar (P) 45Km-48Km Kalamboli (P), Karanjade, Kharghar (P), Palidevad, Panvel (P)

X7Km-X0Km Koparkhairane, Nerul (P), Sanpada, Vashi

48Km-5XKm Karanjade, Kharghar (P), Panvel (P), Taloja (P)

X0Km-XXKm Airoli (P), Ghansoli, Kamothe(P), Koperkhairane, Nerul (P)

5XKm-54Km Panvel (P), Taloja (P)

XXKm-X6Km Airoli (P), Kamothe(P), Nerul (P), Kharghar (P), Panvel, Ulwe

57Km-60Km Kharghar

X6Km-X9Km Kharghar (P), Nerul, Panvel, Taloja, Ulwe

60Km-6XKm Kalamboli

X9Km-4XKm Kalamboli (P), Kharghar (P), Kamothe (P), Ulwe (P)

6XKm-66Km Kamothe, Khanda Colony

4XKm-45Km Kalamboli (P), Kharghar (P), Kamothe (P), Ulwe (P), Panvel (P)

>66Km Panvel (P)

(Source: Liases Foras) Chart 17 Distance band wise sales movement


Distance band analysis suggests that the locations between X9Km – 4X Km are the best performing locations since XHY X0-XX to XHY XX-XX. The subject-site is located in the distance band of 5XKm to 54Km and

24Km-27Km27Km-30Km30Km-33Km33Km-36Km36Km-39Km39Km-42Km42Km-45Km45Km-48Km48Km-51Km51Km-54Km57Km-60Km60Km-63Km63Km-66Km>66Km0.00

0.20

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0.80

1.00

1.20

2H…

Mill

ion

s

Subject


37

at this distance band, market sales have declined by almost 50% from XHY X0-XX to XHY XX-XX.

Chart 18 Distance band wise supply composition


It is evident that the maximum supply will happen at a distance band of X9 Km- 4X Km. Apart from that, the same magnitude of the supply is also observed at distance band of 5Xkm- 54km where sales is just miniscule. This could be the major threat for future development on the subject site.


1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

2H…

2H…

Mill

ion

s Subject


38

Chart 19 Distance band wise price movement


According to the market, distance band analysis of consumer purchasing preference is at X9Km- 4XKm at an average price of Rs 5,X57 per sqft, while the projects at distance of 5XKm- 54Km are offered at the average price Rs 4,74X per sqft. Although price arbitrage is there but as against the trade off to increasing travel distance and under developed locations, viability of the price is questionable to generate enough sales and that is what we observe in ‘distance band wise sales analysis’.

Comparative market analysis

Comparative market analysis will give us the referential analysis, how is the market performing with respect to regional market, micro market, town and locations around subject site.

The subject site location contributes to the X% of MMR sales having unsold stock of X.98mn sqft. Month’s inventory of the location around subject site is the maximum at X8X which means at present price without any new supply, the market requires X8X months to sell the unsold stock.


2000.00

4000.00

6000.00

8000.00

10000.00

12000.00

14000.00

2H FY 10-11

2H FY 11-12

Subject


39

Table 7 Comparative analysis of sales and unsold

Last XX months sales (mn sqft)

Percentage to MMR

sales Unsold stock

(mn sqft) Months Inventory

MMR X7.X5 XX6.X8 X9

Navi Mumbai and Panvel (Catchment)

7.X6 X9% XX.X7 XX

Panvel (XXKm- 66Km) X.54 4% 7.88 54

Subject site Distance band (5XKm- 54Km)

0.X4 X% X.98 X8X


Subject site has higher weighted average price than the Panvel market, We have already discussed the threat related to price in the demand percolation.

Table 8 Comparative price movement

Price YoY change Sep-XX Dec-XX Mar-XX Jun-XX Sep-XX

MMR X00XX X0598 X08X5 XXX78 XXX85 7.4X%

Navi Mumbai and Panvel (Catchment) 5X4X 5X6X 5X7X 5XXX 55X0 X.9X%

Panvel (XXKm- 66Km) X894 40XX 4067 4X88 450X XX.90%

Subject site Distance band (5XKm- 54Km) 4X86 4X6X 4X46 44XX 474X XX.X0% (Source: Liases Foras)

As against the price, sales velocity in the nearby location of subject site is the lowest at 0.4X% which translates into the gestation period of XX7months.

Table 9 Comparative sales velocity movement

Sales Velocity

Sep-XX Dec-XX Mar-XX Jun-XX Sep-XX

MMR X.55% X.X4% X.XX% X.5X% X.X7%

Navi Mumbai and Panvel (Catchment) X.X6% X.X5% X.XX% X.66% X.55%

Panvel (XXKm- 66Km) 0.77% X.XX% 0.88% X.X9% X.X0%

Subject site Distance band (5XKm- 54Km) 0.99% 0.58% 0.5X% 0.60% 0.4X% (Source: Liases Foras)

The above analysis clearly suggests that not only our subject site but the entire Panvel is facing the oversupply scenario. Scenario is worst in the locations around the subject site.

However, it does not mean that opportunity is not there. On the flipside, this is the right moment to play with the market inefficiency with unique products (villa) and correct valuation.


40

Product performance In present market condition the question arises is,

Which product should we offer?

What should be the cost range?

What should be the area?

To access the product performance analysis is divided into the two parts; part X will talk about the product performances in the micro market and derive the best performing products while in second stage of analysis, suggested product will be analyzed with microscopic view to derive the best performing cost range and area.

The product performance is derived based upon the theory that the product which has higher sales and respectively balanced supply of the product is the best performing product.

Based upon the theory, best products in the micro market are XBHK, XBHK and XBHK respectively.

Table 10 Product performance assessment in the Micro catchment

Product Last XX month sales Unsold Supply Percentile Product Efficiency

X X/X BHK 88,80X X96,XX6 X85,0X7 X%

XBHK X,6X0,405 4,784,8XX 6,405,XX8 4X%

XRK 7X,477 X74,X57 X47,6X4 X%

X X/X BHK X06,90X 650,9X0 957,8XX 8%

XBHK X,8X0,0XX X0,900,45X X4,7X0,474 X00%

XRK X,X70 X,X75 4,445 0%

X X/X BHK X,800 X,845 5,645 0%

XBHK X,XXX,088 4,88X,700 6,094,788 XX%

4 X/X BHK - - 0%

4BHK XX6,906 5X6,090 6XX,995 X%

5BHK 6,000 - 6,000 0%

Duplex X7,X08 59,6X5 76,94X 0%

Duplex XBHK - - 0%

Duplex 4BHK - 7,685 7,685 0%

Penthouse X,660 X4,706 X8,X66 0%

Penthouse XBHK - - - 0%

Penthouse XBHK X,560 - X,560 0%

Villas - 69,60X 69,60X 0% (Source: Liases Foras)

XBHK cost range analysis Cost range analysis is derived in focusing on the Panvel market only; based upon the analysis most efficient cost range in the XBHK is Rs XX lac to Rs XX lacs with an average super built-up area of 6X6 sqft, post


41

that cost range of Rs X5lac to Rs X0 lac and Rs X0lac to Rs X5lac is performing better in the market.

Table 11 XBHK cost range analysis

Cost range Last XXmonth sales Unsold Supply

Cost range Efficiency Percentile

Average Area

X5 Lac - X7 Lac 8X6X 900 9X6X X4% 450

X7 Lac - X9 Lac X7X4X X7667X X040XX X4% 6X0

X9 Lac - XX Lac X56XX 55568 8XX8X XX% 6XX

XX Lac - XX Lac 80X46 X0500X X85X49 X00% 6X6

XX Lac - X5 Lac X7867 7XX64 89XXX XX% 6XX

X5 Lac - X0 Lac 6XXX8 59050 XXXX67 87% 657

X0 Lac - X5 Lac 45699 X5X7X9 X994X9 56% 68X

X5 Lac - 40 Lac XX07X XX05XX X5X606 X6% 689

40 Lac - 45 Lac X4X5 X6495 X99X0 4% 7X4 (Source: Liases Foras)

XBHK cost range analysis In case of XBHK, the most efficient cost range is in the range of Rs 50 lac to Rs 55 lac with an average super built-up area of XX4Xsqft.


Cost range Last XXmonth sales Unsold Supply


Average Area

XX Lac - X5 Lac 4X80 47X5 9X05 X% 675

X5 Lac - X0 Lac 55XX0 54XXX7 598567 X7% 9X8

X0 Lac - X5 Lac 4475X 4045X 85X0X X4% 968

X5 Lac - 40 Lac 54584 9X467 X4805X X9% 984

40 Lac - 45 Lac 85685 7X7968 8XX65X 57% 948

45 Lac - 50 Lac 5X755 8X79X XX6548 X8% X059

50 Lac - 55 Lac X07558 XX8X X09840 X00% XX4X

55 Lac - 60 Lac 7794X 6X04X4 698X77 5X% XX40

60 Lac - 65 Lac XX570 XX7X89 X58759 X4% XX7X

65 Lac - 70 Lac 5X858 4XX9X8 484776 X5% XX67

70 Lac - 75 Lac 7XX8 0 7XX8 7% XX88

75 Lac - 80 Lac X88X6 X6400 45XX6 X4% XX96

80 Lac - 90 Lac XX40 X480 X7X0 X% XX40 (Source: Liases Foras)

XBHK Cost range analysis In case of XBHK, the most efficient price range is Rs70lac to Rs75lac with an average super built up area of X400 sqft.


42


Cost range Last XXmonth sales Closing Inventory


Average Area

X0 Lac - X5 Lac 8X98 9XXX X74XX XX% 70X

X5 Lac - 40 Lac XXX6X X5X9XX X66X75 XX% XXX8

40 Lac - 45 Lac XX670 4X857 6X5X7 55% X4X7

50 Lac - 55 Lac 79X5 0 79X5 X7% -

55 Lac - 60 Lac XXX08 XX090X X6X0XX 77% XX97

60 Lac - 65 Lac XX845 0 XX845 40% -

65 Lac - 70 Lac X5X7X 669XXX 694X9X 60% XX77

70 Lac - 75 Lac X96XX 0 X96XX X00% X400

75 Lac - 80 Lac 6X69 0 6X69 XX% -

80 Lac - 90 Lac XX555 577XXX 598768 5X% X486

90 Lac - X Crore 0 XX55X XX55X 0% X6X8 (Source: Liases Foras)


43

Chapter: V: Development Strategy

The chapter primarily tries to answer following questions:

How to engineer density at subject site?

Is there a scope that primary home buyer be motivated to our subject site?

Will it create enough density?

Can density be augmented with the commercial, resort or educational institute?

What should be the ideal price of the product?

What should be the ideal development mix and phasing?

Financial assessment

Engineering the density

The density is going to be the combination of living and floating population, while the living population density is driven by the primary consumption of the residential component end users demand at subject site. The floating population is dependent upon the available economic activity and education

Density creation by bringing the residential end users

The subject site is situated in an uninhabitable area, requires major infrastructural development. Also, the product has to be motivating enough and should take the least gestation time for construction.

We dwelled with the market of Navi Mumbai and Panvel and assessed that although the site is far of and presently in an undeveloped zone, the highly paid employees working in the nearby industries, MIDC area of Patalganga, Taloja and Navi Mumbai IT sectors can be motivated to drive in to live in enviable and rare accommodation such as row house and bungalows offered at the same cost bracket of apartment available in the habitable locations of Navi Mumbai. The target customers are those drawing a salary of Rs XX lacs per annum and above.

Table 14: Employ above XXL salary bracket in the catchment

Land Area in Mn Sqft

Percentage of Land area occupied

Total Occupied Land Area

Area Required per person in sqft

Employable Population

Patalgana- MIDC

48.9X 60% X9.X6 X500 X9,574

Taloja- MIDC 70.56 X00% 70.56 X500 47,04X

Navi Mumbai Industrial

X79.87 40% XX.X9 X500 74,6XX

Navi Mumbai Commercial

XX.94 X5% XX.X8 X50 74,549


Employable population in the catchment is derived based upon the amount of area developed and space required per person to work, i.e


44

in industrial estate, per person space requirement is assumed at X500 sqft and an employment of X50 sqft per person is assumed. Based upon the calculation, existing employed population in Navi Mumbai and Panvel regions turns out to be around X,X5,798.

How many of the employ will come to reside at our subject site?

Looking at the person’s affordability, the household having income of more than Rs XX lac per annum can only sustain at the location. To identify the number of people who can actually afford to stay at our subject site, we have further classified the number considering X% of industrial employees who will have the salary above Rs XXlac per annum as against 8% of employees who will have the salary bracket more than Rs XX lac per annum.

Based upon our perception and past trend of the market, maximum X4% of the market share can be consumed by any development.

Table 15 Probable population can be drawn to subject site

Employable Population

Percentage of population having salary bracket more than XXL

Maximum employee in salary of XXL and above X.5% 7.0% X4.0%

Patalgana- MIDC X9,574 X.0% X96 7 X4 X7

Taloja- MIDC 47,04X X.0% 470 X6 XX 66

Navi Mumbai Industrial 74,6XX X.0% 746 X6 5X X04

Navi Mumbai Commercial 74,549 8.0% 5964 X09 4X7 8X5

XX5,798 7X76 X58 5X6 X0XX (Source: Liases Foras)

Probability scenario for the end users

To envision the number of household shift to our subject site, we have considered three scenarios, highly optimistic scenario (X4% of employable population will come to subject site), optimistic scenario (7% of employable population will come to subject site) and pessimistic scenario (X.5% employable population will come to subject site).

Considering the pessimistic scenario, X.5% of the existing employable population, which turns out to be X58 families (XX6X persons), will allow approximately 5000 sqft of retail to flourish on the subject site.


45

Augmenting the density by commercial

Outlook of the commercial market is gloomy across the nation. Under such circumstances going for commercial is a risk, but as per the township norms at least X5% of BUA should be the employment generating activity. In given state when subject site is located X4Km distance from the habitation, critical question arise is what should be the size of commercial to be developed and how to engineer the commercial development considering the balance between financial and development limitation.

Two case to refer In the recent development, Mahindra SEZ, Chennai (World one city) and Mahindra SEZ, Jaipur, can be considered as both the SEZ were located far away from the main city and operating as a successful venture.

Table 16 Comparative example of Mahindra SEZ- Chennai and Jaipur with subject site

IT/ ITES development Distance from the City center in KM Distance from nearest Habitable location in KM

Mahindra SEZ- Chennai 60.7 X9.X

Mahindra SEZ- Jaipur X5.X X4.X

RAEPL (Subject site) 5X.X X4.X (Source: Liases Foras)

Development strategy for commercial development can be inferred from both this project. Typically the development progresses in the following manner.

Figure 19 Typical development strategy followed in Mahindra Sez

We can similarly be in agreement with the companies to provide the desired space for the development and once it starts functioning, we can sale or lease the stock accordingly.

To answer what should be the scale of the commercial development, we have derived the correlation between the distances of location from the subject site and magnitude of the supply. As the subject site is located in the fringe area of Panvel for commercial, we considered only IT/ ITsez development to derive co-relation.

Following are the list of the projects we have considered and the respective distance from main city center, nearest habitable location, area developed so far, etc.

Campus (Built to suit) BPO’s or voice operators Space for IT and ITES


46

Table 17 IT/ ITsez development considered for deriving co-relation between nearest habitable location and magnitude of supply

IT p

arks

Cit

y

Dis

tan

ce

fro

m M

ain

Cit

y ce

nte

r

Dis

tan

ce

fro

m t

he

nea

rest

Hab

itab

le

CB

D

Nea

rest

Hab

itab

le

loca

tio

n

wh

en

pro

ject

lau

nch

ed

Den

sity

at

ince

pti

on

Are

a in

Acr

es

Are

a

dev

elo

ped

so f

ar

Adarsh Tech Park - Phase I (SEZ) Bangalore X5.4 X X.5 X0 X6.5 X00%

DivyaSree Technopark Bangalore X9 X 7.X X5 55 40%

DivyaSree Technopolis Bangalore XX.6 X 5.X 60 60 50%

Fortune City SEZ Bangalore XX.X X X 85

X9.6X 0%

Global Axis SEZ Phase - II Bangalore X6.5 X 5.7 X0 X0 50%

Manyata Embassy Business Park Bangalore XX.8 X X.5 60 X5 80%

Vrindavan TechVillage Bangalore X6.5 X 4 X5 70 X5%

Bagmane Tech Park Bangalore 8 X X 80 5X X00%

Chennai One Chennai X9.4 X X.6 X5 X7 85%

DLF IT SEZ Chennai X9.X X X 60 40 X00%

Estancia SEZ Chennai 45.6 X.5 5.8 X0 8X X0%

ETA Techno Park Chennai X9.5 5.7 X0 X5 X0 X00%

Platinum Holdings Chennai X9.5 5.7 X0 X5 X X00%

Ramanujan IT City Chennai X4.X X X X00 XX 65%

The Gateway Chennai X6.8 X X 80 X6 75%

Mahindra SEZ Chennai 60.7 X9.X X9.X X5 X500 60%

DivyaSree Orion Hyderabad X4 X 8 X0 X6 75%

DLF Cyber City Hyderabad X6.9 5.8 8 X0 XX X00%

Mindspace -South Hyderabad X9.6 X0.5 X0.5 0 X50 0%

Mindspace - East Hyderabad X5.X X 4.7 X0 XX0 80%

Mindspace - West Hyderabad XX X0 X0 0 X06 5%


47

Point Indu Hyderabad X0 7.7 7.7 0 X50 X%

Tishman Speyer - WaveRock Hyderabad X6.6 9 XX X0 XX 85%

Mahindra SEZ Jaipur X5.X X4.X X4.X 0 X000 X%

Mindspace- Malad MMR X6.X X X X00 X00 X5%

Hirnandani Buisness Park Powai MMR XX.X X X 60

XX.08 75%

Hirnandani Buisness Park Thane MMR X5.8 X X 40 6.5 X00%

Mindspace- Airoli MMR X0.5 X X 70 50 90%

DLF Cyber SEZ NCR X8.4 X X 60 57 X00%

DLF Silokhera NCR XX X X 60 XX.5 80%

Infospace Sector-XX5 Marketable NCR X4.8 XX XX X 45 XX%

Logix Galaxia NCR X7.7 X5.8 X5.8 0 0%

Unitech Infospace NCR X5.6 X 7 65 50 75%

XC Oxygen NCR XX.X X6.6 X6.6 0 50 X0%

Blue Ridge Pune X8.8 7 XX 0 XX 90%

DLF Akruti IT Park Pune XX.X 8.X X5 0 XX X00%

EON Free Zone Pune XX.8 X X.5 40 45 90%

Magarpatta ITSez Pune XX X X.8 X5 75 X00%

SP Infocity Pune X4 X X 40 80 85% (Source: Liases Foras)

Distance to development co-relation

Distance to development co-relation suggests that the magnitude of development gradually declines as the distance increases but after a certain distance, magnitude has to increase again, in simple words the co relation follows the ‘U’ curve.


48

Chart 20 Distance to size of the project co-relation


Based upon the co-relation formula and considering our subject site located at X4 km distance, the magnitude of development should be at least X4.45 acres of land which means development of 0.7mn to 0.8mn sqft as per the standard FSI.

Augmenting the density by creating Resort

Increasing corporate and the weekend travelers have pushed the demand for the resort with multi facility such as, convention center, ball room adventure sports etc.

As the subject site is located on the hilly terrain with the scenic view surrounded by the forest land, it is an ideal place for promoting eco-tourism at the location. The developed resort will also fetch the demand for the hotel accommodation because it has at least the connectivity to airport.

The resort will also help to bring the floating population and this will indirectly help to flourish the retail also.

y = 0.2842x2 - 5.8396x + 40.543R² = 0.5705

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Lan

d A

rea

Distance for the nearest habitable location


49

Augmenting the density by Educational institute

Education sector in India is lagging way behind as comparison to the world Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER). Government of India had put the target to reach the GER X0% by X0X0 as against the present GER of XX.8% which led to the gap of 59 mn sheets in the India.

Table 18 Gap in the education sector in India

Age Group Population in million GER

Present Enrollment in million

Target Enrollment by X0X0

Enrollment as per target in million

Supply Gap in million Special Mobility

X0 to X4 XXX.40 XX.8%

X7 X0% X6.4X

X0 5Km to X0Km

X5 to X9 XXX.XX XX.8%

X7 X0% X6.99

X0

Majority of parents prefer within the state

X0 to X4 XX9.88 XX.8%

X7 X0% X5.96

X9

Higher Special

Mobility (Source: Liases Foras)

Although, the spatial mobility of the student in the age group above X5 years is higher, considering the development of vocational training institute at the subject site, let us have a glance look at the Maharashtra state statistics.

Table 19 Maharashtra state education sector demand forecasting

Age Group Population in million GER

Present Enrollment in million

Target Enrollment by X0X0

Enrollment as per target in million

Supply Gap in million Special Mobility

X0 to X4 X0.X6 X5.9%

X 56% 5.7X

X.7X 5Km to X0Km

X5 to X9 X0.X5 X5.9%

X 56% 5.8X

X.8X

Majority of parents prefer within the state

X0 to X4 X0.6X X5.9%

X 56% 5.99

X.99

Higher Special

Mobility (Source: Liases Foras)

Demand in the desire segment of professional training institute in Maharashtra is approximately X.8X million in the next 8 years.


50

Pricing rational People live closer to their work place, the theory still holds good despite the increasing complexities of the city of Mumbai.

Categorically speaking the price of a real estate project on a specific location is a function and the factors of distance, densities, surroundings and products.

The distance from CDB is a major determinant of residential real estate price. A location closer to CBD is costlier in comparison to the locations, which are farther. This is urban economic geography theory, wherein the prices are the function of distance from CBD.

MMR is a linear city, wherein the main CBD is at the tip of peninsula at Nariman Point & Fort. In last decade with the emergence of other economic hubs such as Lower Parel, BKC, Malad, Powai, Navi Mumbai, the net intensity of economic activities in the city got slightly shifted to Lower Parel.

Lower Parel is considered to be the representative CBD for MMR as it represents the cumulative sum of the influences of all the primary CBDs (Nariman Point, Lower Parel, BKC, Powai and Malad).

The behavior of prices as the function of distance from Lower Parel has gone through the test of time. Whether it is the efficient market condition of X005, price rises of X007, the correction phase in X009 or the irrational prices in X0XX in all the market conditions, the correlation of prices as function of distance has been in excess of 75%.

The subject-site is located at a distance of 5Xkm from the CBD, thus the prices at the subject-site as per the distance equation should have been Rs 4,5XX.

y = 99,498.5253x-0.7828

R² = 0.7163

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90


51

We have mentioned earlier that along with the distance the prices have the bearing of the factors such as demographics, surroundings and products. While near the centre or CBD, product, demography, densities and surrounding have a larger role in the prices, as we move father from the centre, the weightage of the distance becomes more pronounced. The importance and level of demographics surroundings and product diminishes from the centre to outskirts / peripheral areas.

In other words, within the convenient threshold from the CBD, the prices would be determined more by the product, neighborhood profile, view and surroundings, but as we move farther, the distance and travel time appears to be the dominating factor. The convenient threshold may be X0 - 40 minutes or around 6 km from the city centre, in terms of distance.

Which means that within the close distance from the CBD, whether, a location is at 5 minutes or X0 minutes away from the CBD, the price of the location is more influenced by the views, existing demographic settlements – the high end perceived values and motivating product as they carry more weight; while price and distance factor for such locations become secondary. Nevertheless, at father locations the influence of distance increases.

This price is further divided by the effect of Distance (60%), Economic density (X0%) Surrounding (X0%) and Product (X0%).

The market price of Rs. 4,5XX from distance equation is divided into various factors. While Distance weighs Rs X,708 , Economic Density weighs Rs 90X and Surrounding Rs 45X and product Rs 45X.

Factors % Contribution

Standard grade for the Project at the given price

Grade attain by subject site

General price distribution at subject site

adjusted price of the subject site

Distance 60% X00% X00% X708 X708

Economic density X0% X00% X0% 90X 90

Surroundings X0% X00% X0% 45X 45

Product X0% X00% X00% 45X 45X

Prevailing Market price 45X4 XX94

However, under market conditions, the sales velocity at current prices and location would be around 0.55% per month, translating into X8X months of gestation period. In order to maintain an optimum velocity of X.75% (X6 Months), the price should have 45% correction.


52

Development potential

As the site is admeasuring XX0 acres (X0,0X8,800 sqft) located in the green zone as per the revised township policy norms available FSI is 0.5 plus 0.X FSI for social housing and 0.X FSI as premium considering the cumulative total allowable built up is 8,0X5,040 out of which social housing should be X,00X,880 sqft of BUA and remain BUA for sale is 7,0XX,X60.

Figure 20 BUA percentage wise distribution


Table 20 BUA sqft distribution

Sqft

Site Area X0,0X8,800

FSI 0.8

Allowable Built-up 8,0X5,040

Social Housing BUA X,00X,880

Remaining BUA for sale 7,0XX,X60 (Source: Liases Foras)

Conceptual phasing and development plan

As we discussed in the section of engineering, we have to attract the end users by creating the motivating product of the villa and the present market dynamics show the XBHK and XBHK apartments are faster selling product. Thus we suggest starting the development with Villa product, XBHK and XBHK compact size of four stories.

Coupled with generating the density of living population at the subject site, the efforts would be needed to garner the floating population. A weekend resort, (Something like Farriyas Resort at Lonawala) added with the benefit of training centers for corporate with well laid down water sports, adventure, food and training facility would help creating the density of floating population. Thus, we suggest this activity too should commence 4th year onwards.

Employment

Generation

Activity15%

Social Housing

to MAHDA

13%

Residential for

saleable73%


53

Convenience shopping can be sold to the investors in the phases; the first chunk can be sold after the six months of project inauguration. This is generally sold to the underwriters to provides the down payment

Chart 21 Year on Year launch plan


Development strategy for employment generation activity

Based upon the revised township policy norms, minimum area for the economic activates should be X5% of BUA this includes Trade/commerce, Education, Health care, Entertainment, Tourism, etc.

After analyzing the all possible we divided the entire BUA in following manner.

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Residential Resort Amenites Commercial Convinent Shopping Educational


54

Chart 22 Percentage Distribution of economic activity


Chart 23 BUA distribution of various economic activity

BUA SUBA

Commercial 8% 64X,X0X 78X,X68

Convenient Shopping X% X60,X0X XX0,60X

Educational X% X60,X0X X95,567

Amenities X% 80,X50 97,78X

Resort X% X60,X0X X95,567

Total X,X0X,X56 X,59X,787 (Source: Liases Foras)

Chart 24 Year on Year launch plan

Y-X Y-X Y-X Y-4 Y-5 Y-6 Y-7 Y-8 Y-9 Y-X0 Y-XX Y-XX

Commercial 0% X0% 0% X5% X0% X5% 0% X0% 0% X0% 0% X0%

Convenient Shopping 0% X7% X7% X7% 0% 0% X7% X7% X6% 0% 0% 0%

Educational 0% 0% XX% 0% 0% 0% XX% 0% 0% 0% XX% 0%

Amenities 0% X7% 0% X7% 0% X7% 0% X7% 0% X7% 0% X7%

Resort 0% 0% 0% X00% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% (Source: Liases Foras)

Phasing plan residential development

Product mix is suggested based upon product analysis we discussed in the chapter market dynamics. Following table explains the suggested product with carpet, SUBA, units per floor, number of buildings to be constructed, etc.

Commercial49%

Convinent

Shopping20%

Educational

13%

Amenites6%

Resort12%


55

Table 21 Residential development mix

Unit Carpet SCR Saleable Units Per floor

Number of Blocks

Number of stories

Number of units BUA

SUBA

X BHK Compact (MAHADA) X68.5 0.XX 550 8 85 4 X7X0 X00XXX0

X,496,000

X BHK 469 0.XX 700 6 9X 4 XX84 X0X4X96 X,5X8,800

X BHK Compact 60X 0.XX 900 6 45 4 X080 65XX40 97X,000

X BHK Standard 670 0.XX X000 4 X9 X0 XXX0 X554400 X,XX0,000

X BHK Luxury 770.5 0.XX XX50 4 X5 X0 XX00 9X4600 X,X80,000

X BHK 9X8 0.XX X400 4 X5 X0 XX00 XXX5600 X,680,000

ROW houses 804 0.XX XX00 0.5 90 X 90 7XX60 X08,000

Bungalow Standard X07X 0.XX X600 0.5 90 X 90 96480

X44,000

Bungalow Luxury 40X0 0.XX 6000 0.5 90 X 90 X6X800 540,000

Total X0974 68XX096 X0,X68,800



56

Table 22 Year wise launch strategy residential

Y-X Y-X Y-X Y-4 Y-5 Y-6 Y-7 Y-8 Y-9 Y-X0 Y-XX Y-XX

X BHK Compact (MAHADA) 5% 6% 9% 9% X0% XX% XX% XX% 8% 8% 5% X%

X BHK X5% X0% X5% X0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

X BHK Compact 0% X0% X5% X5% X0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

X BHK Standard 0% 0% 0% 0% X0% X0% X0% X5% 0% X5% X0% X0%

X BHK Luxury 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% X0% X0% X5% X0% X0% 0% 0%

X BHK 0% 0% 0% 0% X0% X0% X0% X0% X0% X0% X0% 0%

ROW houses X5% X5% X5% X5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Bungalow Standard X5% X5% X5% X5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Bungalow Luxury 0% 0% X5% 0% X0% X0% X5% X5% X5% 0% 0% 0% (Source: Liases Foras)

Phase wise development plan residential

Phase X Chart 25 Phase X residential launch plan


Y-1 Y-2 Y-3 Y-4

Bunglow Luxury 0 0 81,000 0

Bunglow Standard 36,000 36,000 36,000 36,000

ROW houses 27,000 27,000 27,000 27,000

3 BHK 0 0 0 0

2 BHK Luxury 0 0 0 0

2 BHK Standard 0 0 0 0

2 BHK Compact 0 194,400 243,000 243,000

1 BHK 382,200 305,760 382,200 458,640

1 BHK Compact (MAHADA) 76,794 97,141 132,682 131,895

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000

1,000,000


57





Y-5 Y-6 Y-7 Y-8

Bunglow Luxury 108,000 108,000 81,000 81,000

Bunglow Standard 0 0 0 0

ROW houses 0 0 0 0

3 BHK 168,000 168,000 336,000 336,000

2 BHK Luxury 69,000 276,000 276,000 345,000

2 BHK Standard 232,000 464,000 464,000 348,000

2 BHK Compact 291,600 0 0 0

1 BHK 0 0 0 0


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Y-9 Y-10 Y-11 Y-12

Bunglow Luxury 81,000 0 0 0

Bunglow Standard 0 0 0 0

ROW houses 0 0 0 0

3 BHK 336,000 168,000 168,000 0

2 BHK Luxury 276,000 138,000 0 0

2 BHK Standard 0 348,000 232,000 232,000

2 BHK Compact 0 0 0 0

1 BHK 0 0 0 0


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


58

Financial assumptions

Table 23 Assumptions for finical modeling

Cost Assumptions Option X Anchor

Land Cost 0 Land Area

Base TDR Cost (current price) 0 Land Cost

Stamp Duty & Brokerage 0 Land Cost

Consultants X% Construction Cost

Architect X% Construction Cost

Project Management X% Construction Cost

QS & Cost Management 0 Construction Cost

Facility Management 0 Construction Cost

Approval Cost X5 Saleable Area

Construction Costs

X BHK Compact (MAHADA) 800 Saleable Area

X BHK X000 Saleable Area

X BHK Compact X000 Saleable Area

X BHK Standard X400 Saleable Area

X BHK Luxury X400 Saleable Area

X BHK X400 Saleable Area

ROW houses X600 Saleable Area

Bunglow Standard X600 Saleable Area

Bungalow Luxury X600 Saleable Area

Commercial X800 Saleable Area

Convenient Shopping X400 Saleable Area

Educational X500 Saleable Area

Amenities X000 Saleable Area

Resort 4500 Saleable Area

Covered Parking X000 Parking Area

Open Parking X5 Parking Area

Infrastructure X00 Saleable Area

Land Cost

Interest X6% Debt

Sales & Marketing X% Total Revenue

Planning & Admin X% Total Revenue

Supplier Credit Period X Construction Cost (Source: Liases Foras)


59

Financial analysis Table 24 Financial analysis

Total Cost Total Cost in Rs crore

Revenue per sqft

X4,X6X,XX8,XX9 X,4X6 X,X69

Land Cost - - -

TDR Cost - - -

Stamp Duty & Brokerage - - -

Approval Cost XXX,4X4,674 XX XX

Consultants 578,09X,X77 58 57

Construction Cost X8,904,558,844 X,890 X,84X

Infrastructure X,00X,880,000 X00 99

- - -

Interest X0,487,XX9 X X

Sales & Marketing X,5X7,4X5,069 X5X X50

Planning & Admin X,909,X8X,XX6 X9X X88

Total Revenue 76,X7X,X5X,446 7,6X7 7,5X0

Revenue Phase I X8,X60,659,687 X,8X6 X,806

Outright Revenue X6,67X,X5X,XX0 X,667 X,640

Terminal Values X,688,407,556 X69 X66

Revenue Phase II 4X,4X5,8X7,X86 4,X4X 4,X7X

Outright Revenue 4X,XX9,005,6XX 4,XX4 4,X44

Terminal Values X86,8XX,565 X9 X8

Revenue Phase III X5,584,756,57X X,558 X,5XX

Outright Revenue X5,X69,X4X,85X X,5X7 X,50X

Terminal Values XX5,5X4,7XX XX XX (Source: Liases Foras)


60

Table 25 Financial analysis summary

Profit 4X,X08,XX5,X07 4,XXX

Project Duration X77

Peak Negative Cashflow (X40,XX9,8X0) (X4)

Equity XX0,XX4,9X5 XX

Debt (XX0,XX4,9X5) (XX)

ROE 48.8%

NPV 9,XXX,87X,8XX 9XX

IRR X55.X% (Source: Liases Foras)

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