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2018 OREGON VOTER POLL

SUMMARY REPORT

OCTOBER 8, 2018

Michael J RileyRiley Research Associates

RESEARCH | INSIGHT | KNOWLEDGE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction & Methodology...................................................................................................................1

Executive Overview...............................................................................................................................2

Results...................................................................................................................................................3

Opening Questions............................................................................................................................3

2018 Ballot Measures........................................................................................................................4

Demographics: Participant Profiles (Data Appended from Voter Records)...........................................8

Appendix: Questionnaire.....................................................................................................................11

APPENDIX: Questionnaire

Introduction & Methodology

INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY

On behalf of KGW TV, The Oregonian, and OregonLive, Riley Research Associates conducted a statewide online poll among 356 registered voters who indicated they were either very likely or certain to vote in the upcoming Primary election. Only those with a record of having voted in at least two of the last four elections were invited to participate. The online poll took place between September 24th and October 7th, 2018.

A sample of 356, while not large, is statistically accurate to within +/-5.2 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. The sample characteristics were monitored to ensure they match those of Oregon’s likely voters, and the poll produced a representative the sample, based on likely voter characteristics of age, gender, and political party, for each Congressional District in the state.

Candidate names were read in rotating order to respondents in order to eliminate any sense of preference. Candidates’ names were associated with the political parties they represent.

Regions are composed of the following counties:

Portland Metro Willamette Valley Central Eastern Coast South

Clackamas Benton Crook Baker Morrow Coos DouglasColumbia Lane Deschutes Gilliam Sherman Clatsop JacksonMultnomah Linn Hood River Grant Umatilla Curry JosephineWashington Marion Jefferson Harney Union Lincoln

Polk Wasco Klamath Wallowa TillamookYamhill Lake Wheeler

Malheur

| Pg. 1KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Oregon Voter PollOctober, 2018

Executive Overview

EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW

Perception of US President

Just two in five of Oregon’s likely voters have a favorable opinion of the President. Favorable ratings were highest in Eastern Oregon, among Republicans, but also among many of those in Congressman Peter DeFazio’s Fourth Congressional District. Favorable ratings were lowest among Democrats, women, and residents of the Portland Metro area.

Oregon: Right or Wrong Track?

People were split between whether the state is on the right or wrong track. Older voters leaned toward believing the state is on the right track, yet the most dependable voters (four out of the last four elections), leaned towards believing the state is on the wrong track.

Women and Democrats were more likely to believe the country is on the right track, while Republicans and those from Central and Eastern Oregon tend to believe the state is on the wrong track.

Governor of Oregon

Among both Democrats and Republicans, more than eight in ten voters said they are likely to vote for their respective candidates. Traditionally, party loyalty is closer to 90%.

While Kate Brown has a higher expected vote count (49% compared to 45% for Knute Buehler), her favorability is significant lower outside the Portland Metro area. In Central Oregon the vote overwhelmingly favors Buehler. The youngest voters (18-34) are more likely to favor the non-major party candidates.

2018 Ballot Measures

Measure 102 - Affordable HousingAbout half of all respondents were in favor of Measure 102 while three in ten were against it. Men, Democrats and people from Central Oregon were more likely to favor the measure while Republicans and those living on the Coast were most likely to oppose it.

Measures 103 (Grocery Tax) and 104 (Three-fifths Majority Requirement)For both measures 103 and 104, the vote was too close to call and at least a fifth of voters remain undecided. Republicans and men are more in favor of them while Democrats and women oppose the measures.

Measures 105 and 106 (Repeal Sanctuary State status and Stops Public Abortion Funding) Voters appear strongly opposed to both Measures 105 and 106 with less than 10% unsure. More than half of voters opposed each of these measures. Opposition increased with age, being female, being a Democrat and living in either the Portland Metro or Willamette Valley region.


Results

RESULTS

Q1. Before we talk about Oregon, please indicate your rating of US president Donald Trump (Select one response):

Overall two in five voters have a favorable opinion of the President. Favorable ratings for the President were higher among respondents from Eastern Oregon (67%), Republicans (89%), and those residing in Congressional District 4 (55%). Favorable ratings were lower among 18-34 and 55-64 year olds, Democrats (only 5% had favorable ratings), women (28%), and residents in the Portland Metro area (35%).

Total 356

Favorable 40%

Very favorable 29Somewhat favorable 12Unfavorable 60%

Somewhat unfavorable 6Very unfavorable 53

Q2. And now in terms of the way things are going here in Oregon, would you say things are generally on the right track, or going in the wrong direction? (Select one response)

In 2016, about 9% of respondents were unsure, but the rest were split between right and wrong track. Older voters leaned towards believing the state is on the right track. However, those voting in the most elections leaned towards believing the state is on the wrong track.

Women were more likely to believe Oregon is on the right track (58% women compared to 44% men), as were Democrats (78%). About 70% of respondents from Central Oregon believed the country is on the wrong track, along with 81% of Republicans.

2018 356

Right track 50%

Very much on the right track 10Somewhat on the right track 40Wrong track 50%

Somewhat on the wrong track 22Very much on the wrong track 28


Results

Q3. And in the race this November for the governor of Oregon, which of these candidates will most likely get your vote? Please indicate whether your choice is “certain” or only “likely” at this time. (If undecided) Please indicate the candidate most likely to get your vote, if your ballot was due today. (Rotate order of presentation of candidates)

Looking at results by registered party, 87% of Democrats and 91% of Republicans are voting for their candidates. While Kate Brown receives a higher vote count statewide (49% as compared to 45% for Knute Buehler), her popularity is lower outside of the Portland Metro region, especially in Eastern Oregon (33%). Brown has strong support among women (58%), but loses among men (42%).

An ominous finding for Brown is that the most likely voters are less likely to support her. The youngest voters (those 18-34) tend to favor non-major party candidates (44%) over Brown (22%). And unsurprisingly, Central/Eastern Oregon strongly favors Knute Buehler (70%).

Total 356

Kate Brown (D) 49%

Certain to vote for Kate Brown (D) 34Likely to vote for Kate Brown (D) 15Knute Buehler (R) 45%

Certain to vote for Knute Buehler (R) 28Likely to vote for Knute Buehler (R) 17Other candidates 6%

Certain to vote for Patrick Starnes (Independent) 1Likely to vote for Patrick Starnes (Independent) 3Likely to vote for Aaron Auer (Constitution) 1Certain to vote for Nick Chen (Libertarian) 1Likely to vote for Nick Chen (Libertarian) 1


Results2018 Ballot Measures

Q4. Measure 102 (Constitutional Amendment): “Allows local bonds for financing affordable housing with non-governmental entities”

Explanation: Measure 102 amends the Oregon Constitution to add an exception for affordable housing. Under the measure, local governments may use bond proceeds to lend money to, invest in or pay a private company, corporation, or other nongovernmental entity for the capital costs to buy or build affordable housing.

In order to use this exemption, local governments must first obtain voter approval in an election in which the bond measure describes the “affordable housing” to be bought or built. The only bonds eligible for the exemption are those paid from new property taxes upon voter approval.

A local government that issues the bonds must provide public reporting on and annual audits of the expenditure of the borrowed funds. Ballot Measure 102 caps each local government’s total bonded indebtedness for capital costs of affordable housing at one-half of one percent of the real market value of all property in the local government.

Almost half of respondents were in favor of Measure 102 while three in ten were against it, and 23% were undecided. Men were more likely to favor the measure (49%), as were Democrats (61%) and people from Central/Eastern Oregon (70%). Republicans (48%) and those living on the Coast (64%) were among those most likely to oppose the measure.

Total 356

Yes 46%

Certain to vote yes 12Likely to vote yes 33Undecided 23%

No 31%

Certain to vote no 11Likely to vote no 21


Results

Q5. Measure 103 (Constitutional Amendment): “Prohibits taxes/fees based on transactions for “groceries” (defined) enacted or amended after September 2017”

Explanation: Measure 103 amends the Oregon Constitution prohibiting the state or any local government from adopting, approving, or enacting on or after October 1, 2017, any tax, fee, or other assessment on any transaction for the sale, purchase, distribution, or transfer of “groceries,” or for the privilege of selling or distributing “groceries.”

The measure defines “groceries” as any raw or processed food or beverage intended for human consumption. The measure prohibits taxes, fees, and assessments on the purchase or sale of raw or processed food or beverage intended for human consumption at all stages, including agricultural crops and food and beverage products of all types, whether in warehouses, transit, packaging and processing plants, certain restaurants, or other locations, when the commodity, product, facility, establishment, or commercial activity is regulated under specified federal or state food safety programs.

The prohibited taxes and fees include any sales tax, gross receipts tax, commercial activity tax, value-added tax, excise tax or privilege tax and any change in the corporate minimum tax, to the extent that the corporate minimum tax is imposed on Oregon sales of groceries.

For measure 103, the vote is too close to call, with 21% of voters remaining undecided. Those most likely to favor the measure include Republicans (60%), men (48%) and voters outside the Portland Metro area. A near majority of Democrats (49%) oppose the measure.

Total 356

Yes 40%


No 38%



Results

Q6. Measure 104 (Constitutional Amendment): Defines “Expands (beyond taxes) application of requirement that three-fifths legislative majority approve bills raising revenue.”

Explanation: Measure 104 amends the Oregon Constitution to define and expand the kinds of bills that are considered “bills for raising revenue” that require the approval of a three-fifths majority of all members of each house of the Legislative Assembly. Ballot Measure 104 adds a definition of “raising revenue” to the Constitution.

Under the measure, a bill is considered to be raising revenue if it results in a tax or fee increase through the creation of a new tax or fee; increase the rate of an existing tax or fee; or modification, elimination or change in the eligibility for any exemption, credit, deduction or lower rate of taxation. Under any of those circumstances, the measure would require the bill to be approved by a three-fifths majority of all members in each house of the Legislative Assembly.

For measure 104, the vote remains too close to call, with 28% of voters undecided. Republicans (56%), and men (43%) are more in favor of it while 49% of Democrats oppose the measure.

Total 356

Yes 36%


No 37%



Results

Q7. Measure 105: “Repeals law limiting use of state/local law enforcement resources to enforce federal immigrations laws.”

Explanation: Measure 105 would repeal the state law, that forbids state agencies, including law enforcement, from using state resources or personnel to detect or apprehend persons whose only violation of the law is that of federal immigration law.

Measure 105 would allow any law enforcement agency to use agency funds, equipment, and personnel to detect and apprehend people whose only violation of the law is a violation of federal immigration law.

Voters were very clear on their decisions on Measure 105 with only 9% unsure. More than half of voters are opposed to the measure. This number increased with age, among women, Democrats, and those in the Portland Metro or Willamette Valley regions.

Total 356

Yes 40%


No 51%



Results

Q8. Measure 106 (Constitutional Amendment): Prohibits spending “Public Funds” (defined) directly/indirectly for “Abortion” (defined); Exceptions; Reduces abortion access.”

Explanation: Measure 106 amends the Oregon Constitution to prohibit publicly funded healthcare programs, including the Oregon Health Plan and the Public Employees Benefit Board, from covering abortion. It does so by prohibiting the spending of “public funds” (defined in the measure as “funds and moneys under the control or in the custody of the State of Oregon or any of its political subdivisions or public officials”) for any “abortion,” (defined in the measure as a “purposeful termination of a clinically diagnosed pregnancy of a woman resulting in the death of the human embryo or fetus”) except for when that abortion is “medically necessary” (defined in the measure as “a condition in which a licensed physician determines that the pregnant woman suffers from a physical disorder, physical injury, or physical illness that would place her in danger of death unless an abortion is performed, including a life-endangering physical condition caused by or arising from the pregnancy itself”) or when the spending of public funds on an abortion is required by federal law.

The measure creates two exceptions to the prohibition on spending of public funds for purposes of abortion. The first exception allows public funds to be spent on those abortions to the extent that the federal requirement is found to be constitutional. The second exception allows public funds to be spent on an abortion to terminate an ectopic pregnancy. The measure states that it does not prohibit the expenditure of public funds for the purpose of health insurance costs, so long as public funds are not spent to pay or reimburse for the costs incurred in performing an abortion.

Voters were very clear on Measure 106, with only 10% unsure. More than half of voters (56%) are opposed to the measure. Opposition increases by age, among women, Democrats, and residents of the Portland Metro or Willamette Valley regions.

Total 356

Yes 34%


No 56%



Demographics

DEMOGRAPHICS: PARTICIPANT PROFILES (DATA APPENDED FROM VOTER RECORDS)

Likelihood to Vote

Total 356

Certain to vote 95%Very likely to vote 5

Congressional District (CD):

Total 356

1 17%2 213 23 4 18 5 22

Region

Total 356

Eastern 3%Central 6 Southern 11 Coastal 4 Willamette Valley 22 Portland Metro 55


Demographics

Gender

Total 356

Male 56%Female 44

Registered Party

Total 356

Democrat 44%

Republican 34%

Others 22%

Independent 10Libertarian 1Pacific Green 0Constitution 1Others / Non-affiliated 11%

Voting Propensity

Total 356

Two of 4 46%Three of 4 35 All four 20


Demographics

Age category

Total 356

18-34 3%35-44 7 45-54 16 55-64 28 65+ 46


Appendix

APPENDIX: QUESTIONNAIRE

KGW News / OregonLive.com2018 Oregon General Election Questionnaire: Version 4.2 9-18-2018

Introduction

Riley Research, an accredited and certified Oregon polling company, is doing a quick poll on the upcoming November election. This polling survey is being done on behalf of KGW TV and The Oregonian/OregonLive. The results of this poll will be released the week of October 8th on KGW TV, in The Oregonian, and on OregonLive.com.

[Riley Research is committed to a strict code of ethics to ensure participant confidentiality and provide accurate reporting]

Regarding the general election coming up this November, would you say you are (select one):

1 Certain to vote? (Continue if yes)2 Very likely to vote? (Continue if yes)3 Somewhat likely to vote? (Discontinue)4 Unlikely or unsure about voting? (Discontinue)5 (Refused) (Discontinue)

Demographics (data to be appended by Vendor from records)

Congressional District (CD): ______ (Goal: 20% from each CD)

Registered Party (proportional by Congressional District)

1 Democrat2 Republican3 Independent Party4 Libertarian Party5 Pacific Green Party6 Constitution party7 Working Families8 Non-affiliated / Other

Gender

1 Male2 Female

Number of elections vote in, of the past four elections

2 2/43 3/44 4/4


Appendix

Age category (proportional to voter list)

1 18-242 25-343 35-444 45-545 55-646 65-747 75+

Questions

Q1. Before we talk about Oregon, please indicate your rating of US President Donald Trump (select one response):

1 Very favorable2 Somewhat favorable3 Somewhat unfavorable4 Very unfavorable

Q2. And now in terms of the way things are going here in Oregon, would you say things are generally on the right track, or going in the wrong direction? (Select one response)

1 Right track (very much)2 Right track (somewhat)3 Wrong track (somewhat)4 Wrong track (very much)

Q3. And in the race this November for the governor of Oregon, which of these candidates will most likely get your vote? Please indicate whether your choice is “certain” or only “likely” at this time. (If undecided) Please indicate the candidate most likely to get your vote, if your ballot was due today. (PN: Rotate order of presentation of candidates)

Single Response Candidates 1 Certain to vote for Kate Brown (Democrat)2 Likely to vote for Kate Brown (Democrat)3 Certain to vote for Knute Buehler (Republican)4 Likely to vote for Knute Buehler (Republican)5 Certain to vote for Patrick Starnes (Independent)6 Likely to vote for Patrick Starnes (Independent)7 Certain to vote for Aaron Auer (Constitution)8 Likely to vote for Aaron Auer (Constitution)11 Certain to vote for Nick Chen (Libertarian)12 Likely to vote for Nick Chen (Libertarian)

2018 Ballot Measures

Now switching to the five Oregon ballot measures that will be voted on in November, please read each statement and indicate how you are most likely to vote.

Q4. Measure 102 (Constitutional Amendment): “Allows local bonds for financing affordable housing with non-governmental entities”


Appendix

Explanation: Measure 102 amends the Oregon Constitution to add an exception for affordable housing. Under the measure, local governments may use bond proceeds to lend money to, invest in or pay a private company, corporation, or other nongovernmental entity for the capital costs to buy or build affordable housing. In order to use this exemption, local governments must first obtain voter approval in an election in which the bond measure describes the “affordable housing” to be bought or built. The only bonds eligible for the exemption are those paid from new property taxes upon voter approval. A local government that issues the bonds must provide public reporting on and annual audits of the expenditure of the borrowed funds. Ballot Measure 102 caps each local government’s total bonded indebtedness for capital costs of affordable housing at one-half of one percent of the real market value of all property in the local government.

Single Response Ballot Measure 1021 Certain to vote Yes2 Likely to vote Yes3 Certain to vote No4 Likely to vote No5 Undecided

Q5. Measure 103 (Constitutional Amendment): “Prohibits taxes/fees based on transactions for “groceries” (defined) enacted or amended after September 2017”

Explanation: Measure 103 amends the Oregon Constitution prohibiting the state or any local government from adopting, approving, or enacting on or after October 1, 2017, any tax, fee, or other assessment on any transaction for the sale, purchase, distribution, or transfer of “groceries,” or for the privilege of selling or distributing “groceries.” The measure defines “groceries” as any raw or processed food or beverage intended for human consumption. The measure prohibits taxes, fees, and assessments on the purchase or sale of raw or processed food or beverage intended for human consumption at all stages, including agricultural crops and food and beverage products of all types, whether in warehouses, transit, packaging and processing plants, certain restaurants, or other locations, when the commodity, product, facility, establishment, or commercial activity is regulated under specified federal or state food safety programs. The prohibited taxes and fees include any sales tax, gross receipts tax, commercial activity tax, value-added tax, excise tax or privilege tax and any change in the corporate minimum tax, to the extent that the corporate minimum tax is imposed on Oregon sales of groceries.


Q6. Measure 104 (Constitutional Amendment): Defines “Expands (beyond taxes) application of requirement that three-fifths legislative majority approve bills raising revenue.”

Explanation: Measure 104 amends the Oregon Constitution to define and expand the kinds of bills that are considered “bills for raising revenue” that require the approval of a three-fifths majority of all members of each house of the Legislative Assembly. Ballot Measure 104 adds a definition of “raising revenue” to the Constitution. Under the measure, a bill is considered to be raising revenue if it results in a tax or fee increase through the creation of a new tax or fee; increase the rate of an existing tax or fee; or modification, elimination or change in the eligibility for any exemption, credit, deduction or lower rate of taxation. Under any of those circumstances, the measure would require the bill to be approved by a three-fifths majority of all members in each house of the Legislative Assembly.


Appendix



Appendix

Q7. Measure 105: “Repeals law limiting use of state/local law enforcement resources to enforce federal immigrations laws.”

Explanation: Measure 105 would repeal the state law, that forbids state agencies, including law enforcement, from using state resources or personnel to detect or apprehend persons whose only violation of the law is that of federal immigration law.Measure 105 would allow any law enforcement agency to use agency funds, equipment, and personnel to detect and apprehend people whose only violation of the law is a violation of federal immigration law.


Q8. Measure 106 (Constitutional Amendment): Prohibits spending “Public Funds” (defined) directly/indirectly for “Abortion” (defined); Exceptions; Reduces abortion access.”

Explanation: Measure 106 amends the Oregon Constitution to prohibit publicly funded healthcare programs, including the Oregon Health Plan and the Public Employees Benefit Board, from covering abortion. It does so by prohibiting the spending of “public funds” (defined in the measure as “funds and moneys under the control or in the custody of the State of Oregon or any of its political subdivisions or public officials”) for any “abortion,” (defined in the measure as a “purposeful termination of a clinically diagnosed pregnancy of a woman resulting in the death of the human embryo or fetus”) except for when that abortion is “medically necessary” (defined in the measure as “a condition in which a licensed physician determines that the pregnant woman suffers from a physical disorder, physical injury, or physical illness that would place her in danger of death unless an abortion is performed, including a life-endangering physical condition caused by or arising from the pregnancy itself”) or when the spending of public funds on an abortion is required by federal law.

The measure creates two exceptions to the prohibition on spending of public funds for purposes of abortion. The first exception allows public funds to be spent on those abortions to the extent that the federal requirement is found to be constitutional. The second exception allows public funds to be spent on an abortion to terminate an ectopic pregnancy. The measure states that it does not prohibit the expenditure of public funds for the purpose of health insurance costs, so long as public funds are not spent to pay or reimburse for the costs incurred in performing an abortion.


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