table of contentsq1-2020 table of contents. page 3 . udi state of the market quarterly publication ....

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Table of Contents

UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication (Q1-2020)…………..… 4

Population ………………………………………………………………………………….... 8 1.1 Metro Vancouver Population (15+) 2010 – Present 1.2 Metro Vancouver Population (15+) Growth Rate (%yoy) 1.3 British Columbia Interprovincial Migration 1.4 British Columbia International Migration 1.5 British Columbia Net Migration 1.6 BC’s Population Growth Breakdown

Economic Indicators ………………………………………………………………..…... 9 2.1 Five-Year Posted Rate (%) 2.2 Consumer Price Index, Canada, BC, Metro Vancouver 2.3 Metro Vancouver Labour Force Totals: 2010 – Present 2.4 BC Unemployment Rate 2.5 Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 2010 – Present 2.6 Canada GDP: 2009 – Present

Economic Indicators ...…………………………………………………………..……..10 3.1 Budgetary Balance - Canada 3.2 BC Investment in New Construction: 2010 – Present 3.3 Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars) 3.4 BC Bankruptcies 3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close) 3.6 Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded

Housing Economic Indicators …………………………………………............... 11 4.1 BC Housing Single Family Registrations 4.2 BC Housing Multi-Family Registrations

Housing Economic Indicators………………….…………………………….……. 12 5.1 CMHC Townhome Starts 5.2 CMHC Apartment Starts 5.3 CMHC Single Family Starts 5.4 Residential Building Permit Values, Metro Vancouver 5.5 Statistics Canada Housing Price Index, BC, Metro Vancouver 5.6 CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates

New Home Data: Concrete Condominiums ………………………………..…13 6.1 Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 6.2 Concrete Condominium Sales 6.3 Concrete Condominium Inventory Levels 6.4 Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

Q1-2020

Table of Contents

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New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums ……………………….….. 14 7.1 Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 7.2 Wood Frame Condominium Sales 7.3 Wood Frame Condominium Inventory Levels 7.4 Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

New Home Data: Townhomes ……………………………………………............ 15 8.1 Townhome Projects Actively Marketing 8.2 Townhome Sales 8.3 Townhome Inventory Levels 8.4 Townhome Standing Inventory Levels

UA Affordability Index: New Home Data …………………………………….. 16 9.1 UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums 9.2 UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums 9.3 UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes

Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver………............ 17 10.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 10.2 Apartment Re-Sale Prices 10.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 10.4 Attached Re-Sale Prices 10.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 10.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices

Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board………….…………………………….......... 18 11.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 11.2 Apartment Re-Sale Prices 11.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 11.4 Attached Re-Sale Prices 11.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 11.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices

New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments……………........... 19 12.1 Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver 12.2 Turnover Rates by Region 12.3 Availability Rates by Region 12.4 Current Rent Per Square Foot 12.5 Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages

Methodology & Definitions…………………………………………………………. 20 Definitions Analytical Methods Other Assumptions

Sources …………………………………………………………………………………....… 21 Sources

Q1-2020

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UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication

Welcome to the latest edition of UDI Pacific’s “State of the Market” quarterly publication. The Q1-2020 “State of the Market” report provides current quarterly statistics and trends on the new home and re-sale housing markets as well as a composite of relevant economic statistics that impact the housing market. The report also includes statistics on the newer purpose-built rental market in Metro Vancouver, and the UDI/Urban Analytics Housing Affordability Index derived from Urban Analytics’ NHSLive database and BC Housing’s new home registry statistics.

Population Growth & Housing Starts

The above graph shows the trend of Metro Vancouver’s quarterly total housing starts and population change over the past five years. Metro Vancouver’s total population aged 15 and older increased by 11,600 residents (0.51 percent) this quarter, which was 0.11 percent higher than the growth rate in Q1-2019. Total housing starts (4,082 units in Q1-2020) was 17 percent below the five-year average of first quarters and decreased by 1,321 units (24 percent) when compared to the same quarter last year. The year-over-year decrease in total starts was largely due to apartment starts decreasing by 77 percent (1,199 fewer starts) in the City of Vancouver and by 49 percent (1,034 fewer starts) in the Inner Metro region. Apartment starts in the Outer Metro region increased by 189 percent (953 more starts) when compared to the same quarter last year.

Housing prices most likely fall in the event where new housing supply exceeds current demand levels by a significant rate. Over the past five years, housing starts have only exceeded population growth in one quarter (Q4-2017), which can help explain the relative strength in new home prices in Vancouver over this time frame. This cumulative deficit could potentially result in upward pricing pressure should demand for housing increase in future quarters. Also note that a large majority of the new housing starts have already been sold in the pre-sale market and do not necessarily represent the number of new units coming to market that will be available for purchase.

The above graph shows the ratio of Metro Vancouver’s population growth to housing starts. The Q1-2020 ratio of 2.8 was the highest recorded since Q1-2015 and was 61 percent above the five-year average of first quarters. Out of the 13,282 units released in actively selling pre-sale projects that had not begun construction by the end of the quarter, 66 percent (8,778 units) have already been sold. This total sold will continue to increase before construction of these units completes. Further, the population tables above do not factor demand for housing from Temporary Residents in Metro Vancouver each year such as International Students and Temporary Foreign Workers.

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Q1-2020



Local Economic Factors

The Bank of Canada reacted to the COVID breakout and stock market decline by lowering the overnight lending rate by 1.5 percent to 0.25 percent by the end of the first quarter of 2020. The unemployment rate in BC rose to 7.8 percent in April while Vancouver’s unemployment rate rose to 7.5 percent. These figures are anticipated to improve in the coming months as the number of active COVID cases declines and a multi-phased approach to re-opening business activity in the province occurs.

Overall new home sale activity in Metro Vancouver was still reasonably strong despite the closure of most new home presentation centres in the last two weeks of March. A total of 2,325 units sold in Q1-2020, which is a 30 percent increase from the first quarter of 2019. Activity was particularly strong in the Tri-Cities sub-market in Q1-2020, as successful project launches in this location resulted in it achieving a 481 percent increase in new home sales compared to last quarter and a 425 percent increase when compared to the same quarter last year.

Average per square foot rents for currently available, purpose-built rental units in each of the Inner and Outer Metro regions and the City of Vancouver increased over the past year, with increases ranging between $0.13 and $0.41 per square foot depending on location and building. Rental housing vacancy rates remain well below 1.5 percent across all municipalities except for Tri-Cities/Ridge-Meadows.

Global Economic Factors

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in widespread economic uncertainty which could take some time to unfold. Several countries have begun to slowly re-open their economies, but the unprecedented nature of the virus does cause concern for subsequent waves to occur within the next year. It could also take some time before an official vaccine is discovered and approved.

On a positive note, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rebounded from its recent low of 18,592 and is currently at 23,765 at the time of this publication as the markets are currently factoring in the announced Federal Reserve stimulus funds and are projecting a relatively steady recovery in late 2020. Further, the Nasdaq and its core companies (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Netflix, Tesla, etc.) are currently at or near all-time highs. The Canadian Dollar is currently trading at $0.71 USD and has been trending downward over the past few months, rendering Canadian assets like real estate more affordable in foreign currencies like the CNY (Chinese Yuan) or the HKD (Hong Kong Dollar).

We hope that you enjoy the most recent edition of the State of the Market report and find it informative, helpful and convenient. As always, we welcome any feedback or comments on the publication.

Sincerely,

Urban Analytics Inc.

Michael Ferreira Jon Bennest

Q1-2020

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Population

Insights & Comments: • Metro Vancouver’s population (aged 15+) continued to grow steadily and was at 2,302,500 residents at the end of Q1-2020.

• This was 11,600 more residents than the previous quarter, representing a 0.51 percent growth rate (0.11 percent higher than the growth rate in Q1-2020).

• Net overall migration to BC was low this past quarter, following its seasonal norm with lows in Q4 of each year. The most recent data available (Q4-2019) showed

4,817 additional residents in BC.

• This was 48 percent higher (1,564 more migrants) than Q1-2019.

• Net interprovincial migration for the most recent update (Q4-2019) was 1,885 migrants, which was 2,201 more migrants than the net loss recorded in Q4-2018 and

1,031 more migrants than in Q4-2017.

• International migration to BC consistently experiences seasonal highs in Q3 and lows in Q4 of each year. The most recent available data (Q4-2019) showed 2,932 net

migrants to the province.

• This was 18 percent lower (637 fewer migrants) than Q4-2018.

1.1 Metro Vancouver Population 2010 – Present (15+)

1.3 British Columbia Interprovincial Migration

1.2 Metro Vancouver Population (15+) Growth Rate (%)

1.4 British Columbia International Migration

1.5 British Columbia Net Migration

1.6 British Columbia Growth Breakdown

Q1-2020

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Economic Indicators

Insights & Comments: • The five-year posted rate dropped from 5.19 percent down to 5.04 percent at the end of the quarter.

• Metro Vancouver’s labour force decreased by 34,300 people to a total of 1,514,500 workers in Q1-2020. This total represented a 2.21 percent decrease from the

previous quarter and a 2.15 percent decrease from the first quarter of 2019.

• BC’s unemployment rate increased to 5.3 percent in Q1-2020, which was up 0.5 percent from the previous quarter and was the highest rate since Q1-2017.

• Canada’s consumer price index increased by 0.9 percent from Q1-2019 to Q1-2020, while Metro Vancouver’s CPI increased by 1.1 percent over the same time frame.

• Based on the most recent data available (Q4-2019), $21.7 billion worth of retail sales were recorded in Canada over Q4-2019, which was 0.55 percent more than the

previous quarter and 0.60 percent more than the same quarter last year.

• Canada’s GDP rose for the fourteenth consecutive quarter to over $2.1 trillion at the end of Q4-2019 (most recent data available). This total was up 1.5 percent

compared to the same quarter last year and was 8.2 percent higher than the same quarter five years ago.

2.1 Five –Year Posted Rate (%)

2.2 Consumer Price Index

2.3 Metro Vancouver: Labour Totals 2010 - Present

2.4 British Columbia Unemployment Rate

2.5 BC Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 2010 - Present

2.6 Canada GDP: 2010 - Present

Q1-2020

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Economic Indicators

Insights & Comments: • The Federal budgetary balance showed a deficit of $5.2 Billion in Q4-2019, contributing to the $23.1 Billion deficit accrued throughout 2019.

• The price of crude oil decreased to $32.20 USD per barrel by the end of Q1-2020: the lowest price since Q1-2016. This marked a 49 percent decrease from the

previous quarter and a 50 percent decrease from the same quarter last year. Current crude oil prices are 41 percent lower than the five year average price of $54.95.

• There were 1,055 bankruptcies recorded in BC in Q4-2019, which was nine percent more than the same quarter last year but 28 percent less than in Q4-2014. This

number is likely to increase next quarter as many businesses impacted by COVID have been unable to operate for the past two months.

• The DJIA decreased to 21,917 points in Q1-2020; a 15 percent year-over-year decrease but still 0.06 percent higher than the five-year average of 21,904 points. At

the time of the publication (May 2020) the DJIA has rebounded back to the 24,000 mark and the Nasdaq is at all-time highs.

• The value of shares traded in the Toronto Stock Exchange over Q1-2020 increased by 128 percent from last quarter and 80 percent from Q1-2019, and is primarily

due to the initial panic selling and subsequent buying from COVID.

3.1 Budgetary Balance, Canada

3.2 BC Investment in New Construction: 2010 - Present

3.3 Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars)

3.4 British Columbia Bankruptcies

3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close)

3.6 Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded

Q1-2020

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Housing Economic Indicators

All new homes in the province must be registered with BC Housing. The registration data is collected by BC Housing in the public registry. The majority of registered new homes are enrolled with home warranty insurance which protects against construction defects. The registration of new homes must occur prior to the issuance of building permits and housing starts. The new home registrations measure residential construction activities at the beginning of a project before construction commences and indicates the number of units included in each project.

- “Single” includes the new single detached homes enrolled with home warranty insurance or with approved Owner Builder Authorizations.

- "Multi” includes the new homes in multi-unit buildings (two or more dwelling units) enrolled with home warranty insurance and does not include new homes in multi-unit rental buildings (purpose-built rentals).

- New 2018, 2019, and 2020 data has been added for Squamish (Inner Metro) and Abbotsford (Outer Metro).

Note: Some minor adjustments may be made to the figures over time as registrations are withdrawn or cancelled from home warranty insurance from time to time.

Insights & Comments:

• Single family home registrations in Metro Vancouver totaled 1,097 in Q1-2020; up 17 percent (161 more units) from the previous quarter and up 10 percent (96

more units) from the same quarter last year. This marked the third quarterly increase after four consecutive quarters of decreases.

• The Outer Metro region accounted for 50 percent (550 units) of the total single family home registrations, while 25 percent (270 units) were in the City of Vancouver,

and 25 percent (277 units) were in the Inner Metro region.

• Multi-family home registrations in Metro Vancouver totaled 2,479 in Q1-2020. This was a 55 percent decrease (3,056 fewer units) from the previous quarter, and a

48 percent decrease (2,287 fewer units) from Q1-2019.

• Compared to the same quarter last year, total multi-family registrations in the City of Vancouver increased by 82 percent (271 more units), while the Inner and Outer

Metro regions experienced decreases of 66 percent (1,617 fewer units) and 48 percent (941 fewer units), respectively.

• The Outer Metro region represented 42 percent (1,039 units) of the total multi-family home registrations, while 34 percent (840 units) were registered in the Inner

Metro region and 24 percent (600 units) were registered in the City of Vancouver.

• It is important to note that a large majority of these units have already been sold in the pre-sale market up to two years prior to construction beginning.

• Home registrations of all product types in Metro Vancouver totaled 3,576 in Q1-2020; a 45 percent decrease (2,895 fewer units) from the previous quarter, and a 38

percent decrease (2,191 fewer units) year-over-year.

4.1 BC Housing Single Family Registrations

4.2 BC Housing Multi-Family Registrations

Q1-2020

A study has been conducted by the Bank of Canada in collaboration with BC Housing to assess whether new home registration data under the Homeowner Protection Act can be used as a leading indicator for economic activity in B.C. The research finds that quarterly increases in new registrations for single-detached homes have statistically significant predictive content for growth in real GDP over the next one to three quarters, and provide stronger signals compared to housing starts and building permits over this forecast horizon. The research report has been published under Staff Discussion Papers on the website of the Bank of Canada. http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/sdp2016-3.pdf

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http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/sdp2016-3.pdf


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Housing Economic Indicators


• A total of 4,082 new housing starts were recorded in Q1-2020, a 29 percent decrease (1,667 fewer units) from the previous quarter. The condominium sector in the

Outer Metro and Inner Metro regions accounted for 36 percent and 27 percent of all new starts in Metro Vancouver in Q1-2020, respectively.

• Townhome starts totaled 586 units in Q1-2020, with 487 units (83 percent) located in the Outer Metro region and 99 units (17 percent) in the Inner Metro region.

The majority of these units have already been sold in the pre-sale market. The City of Vancouver had no new townhome starts over the quarter.

• The most recent data available for residential building permit values is from Q4-2019. The three month average of building permit values was $556 Million in Q4-

2019; a decrease of 23 percent ($165 Million) from the same quarter last year but an increase of 38 percent ($152 Million) from the same quarter five years ago.

• The new home price indices for Metro Vancouver and BC both increased for the first time since Q1-2018, increasing by 0.7 percent and 0.6 percent from Q4-2019,

respectively. Metro Vancouver and BC’s price indices remain above their five year averages by 3.2 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively.

• Rental housing vacancy rates remain well below 1.5 percent across all municipalities, except for the Tri-Cities & Ridge-Meadows sub-markets.

• Refer to methodology on Page 20.

5.1 CMHC Townhome Starts

5.2 CMHC Apartment Starts

5.3 CMHC Single Family Starts

5.4 Residential Building Permits – Metro Vancouver

5.5 Statistics Canada Housing Price Index

5.6 CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates

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New Home Data: Concrete Condominiums


• A total of 132 new concrete condominium projects were actively selling across Metro Vancouver in Q1-2020, which represented a one percent decrease (one fewer

project) from last quarter as well as a four percent decrease from the same quarter last year (six fewer projects).

• The Inner Metro region accounted for 51 percent (67 projects) of all actively selling, new concrete projects while the City of Vancouver accounted for 35 percent (46

projects) and the Outer Metro region accounted for 14 percent (19 projects).

• New concrete condominium sales totaled 1,013 in Q1-2020, which was down by three percent (31 fewer sales) from the previous quarter and down by 18 percent

(216 fewer sales) from the same quarter last year.

• The Outer Metro region experienced a 72 percent decrease in sales (321 fewer sales) and the City of Vancouver experienced a 38 percent decrease (83 fewer sales),

but the Inner Metro region experienced a 34 percent increase in sales (188 more sales) when compared to the same quarter last year.

• Out of the 1,013 new concrete condominium sales, 74 percent (748 sales) were in the Inner Metro region, 14 percent (138 sales) were in the City of Vancouver, and

13 percent (127 sales) were in the Outer Metro region.

• Tri-Cities represented 27 percent of all new concrete condominium sales in Q1-2020 with a total of 273 units sold in those municipalities during the quarter.

Burnaby/New Westminster and Richmond/South Delta each accounted for 22 percent of all new concrete condominium sales with 225 and 221 sales, respectively.

• There were 4,934 released and unsold new concrete condominiums at the end of Q1-2020; a four percent decrease (218 fewer units) from the previous quarter and

an eight percent decrease (434 fewer units) compared to the same quarter last year. The Inner Metro region accounted for 54 percent of all released and unsold units.

• Out of the 4,934 units of released and unsold concrete inventory, just 137 units (2.8 percent) were move-in ready at the end of the quarter. When compared to the

same quarter five years ago, this represented a 68 percent decline in move-in ready concrete condominiums (289 fewer units) across Metro Vancouver.

• The Inner Metro region accounted for 65 percent of those move-in ready units (89 units), the City of Vancouver accounted for 30 percent (41 units), and the Outer

Metro region accounted for five percent (seven units). 1: Released and unsold “inventory” includes new home product available for sale that is pre-construction, under construction, and completed. “Standing Inventory” refers to unsold units that are

complete and move-in ready.

6.1 Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing

6.2 Concrete Condominium Sales

6.3 Concrete Condominium Released & Unsold Inventory Levels

6.4 Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

Q1-2020

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New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums


• The number of actively selling wood frame condominium projects in Metro Vancouver increased to 93 projects in Q1-2020; up four percent from last quarter. The

total number of projects was down 16 percent (18 fewer projects) when compared to the same quarter five years ago.

• 46 percent (43 projects) of all actively selling wood frame condominium projects in Metro Vancouver are located in Outer Metro, while the Inner Metro region

accounted for 38 percent (35 projects), and the City of Vancouver accounted for 16 percent (15 projects) of actively selling projects.

• A total of 584 new wood frame condominium sales were recorded in Q1-2020. This was eight percent lower (49 fewer sales) than the previous quarter, 127 percent

higher (327 more sales) than the same quarter last year, and 40 percent lower (389 fewer sales) than the same quarter five years ago.

• Wood frame condominium sales were down by 57 percent (43 fewer sales) in the City of Vancouver, up by 60 percent (94 more sales) in the Inner Metro region, and

down by 25 percent (100 fewer sales) in the Outer Metro region when compared to last quarter.

• Sales in the Langley/Cloverdale sub-market accounted for 23 percent of Metro Vancouver’s total wood frame condominium sales in Q1-2020 with 132 sales.

• There were 2,455 released and unsold new wood frame condominium units at the end of Q1-2020; a 20 percent increase (411 more units) from the previous quarter

and a 105 percent increase (1,255 more units) from the same quarter last year.

• This also represents a five percent increase (116 more units) when compared to the same quarter five years ago.

• The Outer Metro region represented 56 percent (1,366 units) of the total available inventory, while 40 percent (981 units) were in the Inner Metro region and four

percent (108 units) were in the City of Vancouver.

• Only 130 of the 2,455 released and unsold new wood frame condominiums in Metro Vancouver were move-in ready at the end of Q1-2020. This marked a 79 percent

decline (483 fewer move-in ready units) when compared to the same quarter five years ago.

• Central Surrey & North Delta accounted for 48 percent of Metro Vancouver’s total standing inventory of wood frame condominium units with 63 move-in ready units

available.

7.1 Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing

7.2 Wood Frame Condominium Sales

7.3 Wood Frame Condominium Released & Unsold Inventory Levels

7.4 Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

Q1-2020

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New Home Data: Townhomes


• There were 140 actively selling townhome projects in Metro Vancouver in Q1-2020; a six percent increase (eight more projects) from the previous quarter, a 31

percent increase (33 more projects) from the same quarter last year and a 40 percent increase (40 more projects) from the same quarter five years ago.

• 51 percent (71 projects) of all actively selling townhome projects in Metro Vancouver are located in the Outer Metro region, while the Inner Metro region represented

39 percent (55 projects) and the City of Vancouver represented ten percent (14 projects) of actively selling projects.

• A total of 728 new townhome sales were recorded in Q1-2020; a one percent decrease (eight fewer sales) from the previous quarter, a 145 percent increase (431

more sales) from the same quarter last year, and a 17 percent decrease (150 fewer sales) from the same quarter five years ago.

• The Outer Metro region accounted for 66 percent (477 sales) of all new townhome sales in Metro Vancouver while 34 percent (245 sales) occurred in the Inner Metro

region and only one percent (six sales) occurred in the City of Vancouver.

• A total of 1,784 new townhome units were released and unsold at the end of Q1-2020. This was an increase of 13 percent (199 more units) from the previous quarter,

a 40 percent increase (514 more units) from the same quarter last year, and a 78 percent increase (781 more units) from the same quarter five years ago.

• The Outer Metro region represented 48 percent (860 units) of all released and unsold townhome inventory, while the Inner Metro region represented 44 percent

(785 units) and the City of Vancouver represented eight percent (139 units).

• All regions across Metro Vancouver experienced an increase in released and unsold inventory levels when compared to the same quarter last year.

• The largest increase of 124 percent (77 more units) occurred in the City of Vancouver, while a 41 percent increase (248 more units) occurred in the Outer Metro

region and a 32 percent increase (189 more units) occurred in the Inner Metro region.

• There were 352 move-in ready townhomes in Metro Vancouver at the end of Q1-2020. This was a 76 percent increase (152 more units) when compared to Q1-2019

but still much lower than 2013 to 2014 totals.

• A total of 210 (60 percent) of those 352 move-in ready townhome units were in the Outer Metro region, while 138 units (39 percent) were in the Inner Metro region

and only four units (one percent) were in the City of Vancouver.

8.1 Townhome Projects Actively Marketing

8.2 Townhome Sales

8.3 Townhome Released & Unsold Inventory Levels

8.4 Townhome Standing Inventory Levels

Q1-2020

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74.3% 76.4% 76.5% 77.1% 75.0% 73.6% 73.7% 72.4% 73.1%

55.1%

39.5%31.0%

34.7% 33.5% 29.0% 29.6% 34.6% 36.5% 36.9% 37.2% 39.7%

55.4% 53.4% 51.5% 52.6% 50.7%44.1% 42.2%

34.4% 37.2%27.2%

29.5% 29.7% 18.0% 16.4% 17.8% 19.6% 21.4% 23.9% 21.9% 22.7% 25.0%36.3%31.6% 31.5% 29.7%

20.9%12.9%

9.0% 10.1% 9.5%4.7% 6.7% 9.0% 6.9% 7.2% 7.3% 6.7% 6.9% 6.9% 5.0% 6.2% 6.5%

Outer Metro Inner Metro Vancouver

73.3% 71.7% 73.9% 73.4% 73.9%68.2% 66.9% 66.4% 67.4%

57.7% 56.7% 54.8%

42.0% 41.4% 42.1% 43.6% 46.1% 48.6% 49.2% 49.5% 50.6%62.3% 61.9% 60.0% 59.5% 57.1% 54.5% 52.7% 49.1% 48.1% 47.7%39.9%

42.1% 26.2% 26.4% 23.2% 24.9%31.4% 30.2%

36.3% 35.0% 37.1%

40.3% 38.2% 39.9% 36.7%30.6% 26.8% 29.6% 29.3% 29.4%

20.5%

33.2%26.4%

14.6% 15.0% 14.3% 15.8% 17.9% 14.7% 14.2% 15.4% 19.2%


69.7% 68.5%64.4% 67.9% 64.7%

57.9%53.7%

46.4%55.1%

47.7%52.7% 53.2% 50.9% 52.8% 51.3% 48.4% 53.8% 52.5%

41.1% 41.4% 43.8%50.6%

59.0%49.2%

47.9% 49.3%

36.8%32.6%

36.2% 36.6% 39.3%32.9%

28.3%19.2% 20.6% 17.9% 19.1% 20.7% 20.9% 22.8% 22.5% 24.4%

34.7%27.4%

32.2% 22.4%27.3%

11.3% 9.0% 8.4% 10.3%4.2%

11.0%7.1% 8.2% 9.0% 7.9% 8.8% 5.9% 6.2% 5.9% 6.6% 6.3%


UA Affordability Index: New Home Data

Insights & Comments: • Affordability has eroded for all new home types across Metro Vancouver over the past five years. Declines range from 21 to 35 percent depending on product type.

• The largest five-year change continues to be the decline in affordability for new concrete condominiums with decreases of 35 percent in the Outer Metro region, 30

percent in the Inner Metro region, and 30 percent in the City of Vancouver.

• Overall affordability for most sectors of the new home market across Metro Vancouver improved by between one and six percent, depending on product type when

compared to the same quarter last year.

• Recent improvement in affordability levels can be attributed to the Bank of Canada reducing the overnight rate in response to COVID, which has resulted in financial

institutions lowering their respective lending rates.

• The City of Vancouver remained the least affordable region with only 19 percent of income earning households able to purchase the average priced new wood frame

condominium in this area. Just six percent of earning households in Vancouver Proper were able to afford an average new townhome, and only seven percent were

able to afford an average new concrete condominium. Refer to methodology on page 20.

9.1 UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums

9.2 UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums

9.3 UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes

Q1-2020

Table of Contents



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Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver


• A total of 5,980 re-sale units sold in Q1-2020 in the Greater Vancouver market – 2,988 apartment re-sales, 1,839 single family re-sales, and 1,153 townhome re-sales.

• Year-over-year apartment, single family, and townhome re-sales were up by 874 sales (41 percent), 657 sales (56 percent), and 401 sales (53 percent), respectively.

Sales-to-listings ratios of townhomes and apartments increased from the same quarter last year by 71 percent and 46 percent, respectively.

• The benchmark prices by product type in Greater Vancouver in Q1-2020 were as follows: Apartment - $675,800, Townhome - $786,433, Single Family - $1,438,600.

• This quarter marked the second quarterly increase in benchmark prices for townhome and apartment re-sales in Greater Vancouver after five quarters of decreases.

• The benchmark price was down by 0.4 percent ($5,933 lower) for single family re-sales, down by 0.6 percent ($4,733 lower) for townhome re-sales and up by 2.6

percent ($17,200 higher) for apartment re-sales when compared to the same quarter last year.

10.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings

10.2 Apartment Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV)

10.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings

10.4 Attached Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV)

10.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings

10.6 Single Detached Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV)

Q1-2020

Table of Contents



0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

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Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board


• A total of 3,198 re-sale units sold in Q1-2020 in the Fraser Valley market – 1,370 single family re-sales, 946 townhome re-sales, and 882 apartment re-sales.

• Year-over-year single family and townhome re-sales were up by 410 sales (43 percent) and 234 sales (33 percent), respectively. Apartment re-sales were down by

five sales (one percent) when compared to the same quarter last year.

• Sales-to-listings ratios for townhomes, single family homes, and apartments each increased by 39 percent, 34 percent, and five percent when compared to Q1-2019.

• The benchmark prices by product type in the Fraser Valley in Q1-2020 were as follows: Apartment - $396,587, Townhome - $593,017, Single Family - $1,082,457.

• The benchmark price was up by six percent ($60,351 higher) for single family re-sales, up by five percent ($28,454 higher) for townhome re-sales and up by one

percent ($4,855 higher) for apartment re-sales when compared to the same quarter last year.

11.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings

11.2 Apartment Re-Sale Average Prices

11.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings

11.4 Attached Re-Sale Average Prices

11.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings

11.6 Single Detached Re-Sale Average Prices

Q1-2020

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2.8%

1.8%

2.2%

97.2%

98.2%

97.8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Inner Metro

Outer Metro

Vancouver

Turnover Rate Occupancy Rate

19.1%

25.8%

64.2%

80.9%

74.2%

35.8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Inner Metro

Outer Metro

Vancouver

Availability Rate Occupancy Rate

2318

0

4846

1782 1645

2405

0 0 1260

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000


Concrete Units Woodframe Units Townhome Units

$3.99

$3.28$3.33$3.10

$2.33

$3.22

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

Vancouver Inner Metro Outer Metro

Pric

e PS

F

Concrete Woodframe Townhome

010002000300040005000600070008000

Concrete Units Wood Frame Units Townhome Units

New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments


• The overall turnover rate for fully leased rental projects across Metro Vancouver at the end of Q1-2020 was at 2.3 percent; 0.2 percent lower than last quarter.

• The overall availability rate for all actively leasing projects in Metro Vancouver increased from 31 percent last quarter up to 36 percent in Q1-2020. The City of

Vancouver had the highest rate of availability for recently launched purpose-built rental units at 64 percent with 475 units currently available. Released and available

units in recently launched projects Shoreline West End, 1188 Bidwell and 1770 Pendrell represent 82 percent of available rental units in the City of Vancouver.

• Average rents for currently available, purpose-built, concrete, wood frame, and townhome rental units increased in each region by between four and 15 percent

(between $0.13 and $0.41 higher rent per square foot) when compared to Q1-2019. The only exception was a decrease in average rent for wood frame apartments in

the Outer Metro region, which experienced an eight percent decrease in average rent ($0.20 lower rent per square foot).

• A total of 31,505 purpose-built rental units are currently in the planning stages throughout Metro Vancouver: 50 percent in the City of Vancouver, 34 percent in the

Inner Metro region and 17 percent in the Outer Metro region. Note that current market conditions may impact the completion of some of these units.

12.1 Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver

12.2 Rental Unit Turnover Rate by Region

12.3 Rental Unit Availability Rate by Region

12.4 Currently Available Average Rent Per Square Foot

12.5 Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages

Q1-2020

Page generated with NHSLive Rental data. For more detailed rental information, contact [email protected] for subscription options. The majority of the Rental Apartment data referred to herein as ‘newer purpose-built rental’ relates to purpose built rental apartment buildings completed since 2010. Refer to methodology on page 20.

Table of Contents


mailto:[email protected]


Methodology & Definitions – Affordability Index

Definitions Inner Metro: Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, South Delta, Coquitlam, Port Moody & Port Coquitlam. Outer Metro: Langley, North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge and Abbotsford. Vancouver: Downtown Vancouver, Vancouver West and Vancouver East. Prices Prices for the new home market were collected from actively selling new multi-family projects in Metro Vancouver. Re-sale prices were collected from the Real Estate Boards of Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley (with median and benchmark prices used). Income The Index uses household income information from Statistics Canada data from the 2016 Census Survey. Assumed Down Payments Wood frame and concrete condominiums: 20% Townhomes: 30% The reason for the difference is the assumption that townhome buyers are more likely to be move-up buyers with equity built up in their existing property. Analytical Methods Five year, fixed rate 30-year amortization mortgages were used, taking an average of the best rates at eight banks at the time of analysis and taking the greater of the average plus 2% or the five-year benchmark rate published by the Bank of Canada. Other Assumptions The affordability index assumes that a person can afford a maximum of 32 percent of their gross family income to go toward mortgage payments.

Methodology & Definitions – New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments

Analytical Methods Chart 5.6: CMHC rental housing vacancy data includes structures with at least three rental units, which have been on the market for at least three months. Chart 12.1: Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver: Sum of “move-in ready” units by product type. “Move-in ready” is defined as those projects that are Fully Leased, as well as those that are Active (actively leasing) with standing inventory. Sample size of 13,122 units over 134 newer rental apartment and townhome projects in Metro Vancouver. Chart 12.2: Turnover Rates by Region: Projects included are those that are fully leased only. Chart 12.3: Availability Rates by Region: Projects included are those that have recently launched and are actively leasing only. Chart 12.4: Currently Available Average Rent per Square Foot: A weighted average of rental rates of currently available units in fully leased projects and average rental rates achieved in projects that have been actively leasing for greater than three months. The average per region is based on average dollar per square foot prices of each sub-market. Chart 12.5: Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages: Total units of every project in the contemplated section of the Rental database, by product type.

Q1-2020

Table of Contents



Sources Sources

Q1-2020

1.1 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 1.2 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 1.3 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 1.4 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 1.5 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 1.6 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 2.1 - Bank of Canada 2.2 - BC Stats Consumer Price Index 2.3 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 2.4 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 2.5 - Statistics Canada Retail Trade by Province 2.6 - Statistics Canada Gross Domestic Product 3.1 - Stats Canada Central Government Operations 3.2 - Statistics Canada Investment in New Housing 3.3 - Index Mundi (Monthly Spot Oil Prices) 3.4 - Industry Canada Insolvency Statistics 3.5 - Yahoo Finance 3.6 - Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada 4.1 - BC Housing - New Single Family Registrations 4.2 - BC Housing - New Multi-Family Registrations 5.1 - CMHC Housing Now – Vancouver & Abbotsford 5.2 - CMHC Housing Now – Vancouver & Abbotsford 5.3 - CMHC Housing Now – Vancouver & Abbotsford 5.4 - Statistics Canada Building Permits 5.5 - Statistics Canada New Housing Price Indexes 5.6 - CMHC Rental Market Report 6.1 - UA New Home Source Database 6.2 - UA New Home Source Database 6.3 - UA New Home Source Database 6.4 - UA New Home Source Database

Table of Contents

7.1 - UA New Home Source Database 7.2 - UA New Home Source Database 7.3 - UA New Home Source Database 7.4 - UA New Home Source Database 8.1 - UA New Home Source Database 8.2 - UA New Home Source Database 8.3 - UA New Home Source Database 8.4 - UA New Home Source Database 9.1 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites 9.2 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites 9.3 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites 10.1 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 10.2 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 10.3 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 10.4 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 10.5 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 10.6 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 11.1 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.2 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.3 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.4 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.5 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.6 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 12.1 – UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.2 – UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.3 – UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.4 – UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.5 – UA New Home Source Rental Database



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