TABLE OF CONTENTS

VOLUME 1

Keynote

G. Harris

Ecological paradigms, change detection and prediction 1

Managing climate variability and climate change: where to next for modelling?Convener: Mark Howden

T.I. Harrold and R.N. Jones

Generation of local-scale rainfall scenarios using changes in GCM rainfall: a refinement of theperturbation method 11

S.M. Howden, H. Meinke, B. Power and G.M. McKeon

Risk management of wheat in a non-stationary climate: frost in Central Queensland 17

N.R. Viney, B.C. Bates, S.P. Charles, I.T. Webster, M. Bormans and S.K. Aryal

Impacts of climate variability on riverine algal blooms 23

A. Cole, A. Parshotam, H. Roth, R. Webby and N. Botha

Modelling human adaptation to climate variability with the aid of an influence matrix 29

S.M. Howden, P.J. Reyenga and H. Meinke

Managing the quality of wheat grain under global change 35

A. Hood, B. Cechet, H. Hossain and K. Sheffield

Options for Victorian agriculture in a “new” climate: pilot study linking climate change and landsuitability modelling 41

I. Moffatt and A. Parnell

Global climate change and regional simulation modelling: preliminary results from Scotland,1970-2100 47

A-B. Baums, T. Grünwald and C. Bernhofer

Modelling net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) of a forest ecosystem in Middle Europe 53

S.M. Saunders and Y. Ma

Development and preliminary results of an explicit West Australian tropospheric photochemical model 59

P. Kathirgamanathan, R. McKibbin and R.I. McLachlan

Inverse modelling for identifying the origin and release rate of atmospheric pollution– an optimisation approach 64

M. Azzi and H. Duc

Trend analysis of ozone and nitrogen oxides in Sydney using a long range dependence time series model 70

H. Duc, M. Azzi and S. Quigley

Extent of photochemical smog reaction in the Sydney metropolitan areas 76

Understanding hydroclimate variability: modelling, forecasting and

simulation for decision makingConvener: Ashish Sharma

T.I. Harrold, A. Sharma and S. Sheather

Generation of synthetic daily rainfall for 13 locations in Australia using a nonparametric approach 82

R. Srikanthan, A. Sharma and T. A. McMahon

Stochastic generation of monthly rainfall data using a nonparametric approach 88

R. Mehrotra, A. Sharma and I. Cordery

Stochastic downscaling of rainfall for use in hydrologic studies 94

F.H.S. Chiew and M.J. Leahy

Inter-decadal pacific oscillation modulation of the impact of El Nino/Southern Oscillation onAustralian rainfall and streamflow 100

R. Srikanthan, T.I. Harrold, A. Sharma and T. A. McMahon

Comparison of two approaches for generation of daily rainfall data 106

J.E. Ruiz, A. Sharma and I. Cordery

Upper ocean temperatures as predictors of Australian rainfall 112

A. Sharma and U. Lall

Using model averaged probabilistic forecasts for water resources management 118

D.T. Owens, N.M. Clarkson and J.F. Clewett

Persistence of Australian streamflow and its application to seasonal forecasts 124

Modelling water in the climate systemConvener: Jason Evans

J.J. Sharples and M.F. Hutchinson

On the horizontal scale of topographic dependence of monthly Australian precipitation 130

S. Chumchean, A. Seed and A. Sharma

Effect of storm types on radar rainfall estimates 136

J. Evans, R. Smith and R. Oglesby

Precipitation processes in the Middle East 142

T.G. Chapman

Estimation of evaporation in rainfall-runoff models 148

F.H.S. Chiew, T.I. Harrold, L. Siriwardena, R.N. Jones and R. Srikanthan

Simulation of climate change impact on runoff using rainfall scenarios that consider dailypatterns of change from GCMs 154

H. Richter, A. Western and F. Chiew

Comparisons of soil moisture simulations from the VB95 land surface model against observations 160

V.K. Arora and G.J. Boer

An analysis of simulated runoff and surface moisture fluxes in the CCCMA coupledatmosphere land surface hydrological model 166

Groundwater modellingConvener: Vince Bidwell

A.D. Barr, C. Xu and R.P. Silberstein

Construction of a vertical flux model manager for the Swan Coastal Plain 172

C. Xu, R. Silberstein and A. Barr

Estimates of groundwater recharge beneath Banksia woodland on the Swan Coastal Plain using avertical flux model (waves): sensitivity analysis 177

D. Rassam and M. Littleboy

Identifying the lateral component of drainage flux in hill slopes 183

M. Littleboy, N. Herron and P. Barnett

Applying unsaturated zone modelling to develop recharge maps for the Murray-Darling Basin inNew South Wales, Australia 189

J. Pollacco, and P.F. Quinn

Constructing and optimising a parsimonious groundwater recharge model using neutron probe data 195

T-S. Tsay, S-H. Ju and C-C. Huang

Analysis of drip irrigation uniformity by numerical simulation 201

K.L. Bristow, P.B. Charlesworth, K. Narayan, L.K. Stewart, F.J. Cook and J.W. Hopmans

A framework for improving water management in the Lower Burdekin 206

F.J. Cook, P. Fitch, P. Thorburn, P.B. Charlesworth and K.L. Bristow

Modelling trickle irrigation: comparison of analytical and numerical models for estimation of wettingfront position with time 212

L. Stewart, P.B. Charlesworth and K.L. Bristow

Estimating nitrate leaching under a sugarcane crop using APSIM-SWIM 218

K.A. Narayan, C. Schleeberger, P.B. Charlesworth and K.L. Bristow

Effects of groundwater pumping on saltwater intrusion in the Lower Burdekin Delta, North Queensland 224

C.C. Daamen and G.P. Hoxley

Linking soil water and groundwater models to investigate salinity management options 230

K. David and S. Khan

Experimental and numerical studies to quantify groundwater salinity distribution within the saturatedzone under highly saline irrigation systems 236

Y.F. Luo, S. Khan, Y.L. Cui, R. Beddek and Y. Baozhong

Understanding transient losses from irrigation supply systems in the Yellow River Basin using asurface-groundwater interaction model 242

V.J. Bidwell

Realistic forecasting of groundwater level, based on the eigenstructure of aquifer dynamics 248

T.G. Chapman

Steady recharge-induced groundwater flow over a plane bed: nonlinear and linear solutions 254

D.S. Jeng, B.R. Seymour, H.T. Teo, D.A. Barry and L. Li

New approximation for tide-induced water table fluctuations at a sloping beach 260

H.S. Lee, C.J. Matthews, R.D. Braddock, G.C. Sander and F. Gandola

A MATLAB method of lines template for evolution equations 266

W.S. Verwoerd and G.D. Kulasiri

Solute dispersion by 1D stepped velocity fluctuations 272

W.S. Verwoerd

Scale-dependent dispersivity: a velocity fluctuation model 278

Stream pollutant modellingConvener: Lachlan Newham

M. Matthies, J. Berlekamp, S. Lautenbach, N. Graf and S. Reimer

Decision support system for the Elbe River water quality management 284

M.J.M. De Souza, R.E. White and B. Malcolm.

Modelling Chlorophyll a and Phosphorus movement to avoid eutrophication in an agriculturalcatchment 290

C. Dougall, K. Rohde, C. Carroll, G. Millar and S. Stevens

An assessment of land management practices that benchmark water quality targets set at aneighbourhood catchment scale using the SWAT model 296

C.J. Smith, J.B. Field, A.J. Jakeman and R.A.Letcher

Targeting gully erosion at a catchment scale 302

S. Jha, R.B. Grayson and I.D. Rutherfurd

Estimating catchment-scale sediment yield from bank erosion using simple distributed variables:an example from Victoria, Australia 308

L.T.H. Newham, I.P. Prosser and A.J. Jakeman

Testing output quantities and spatial patterns of a catchment-scale stream pollutant model againstcollateral studies 314

B. Sivakumar

Dynamics of sediment transport in the Mississippi River Basin: a temporal scaling analysis 320

W.E. Bardsley

Application of stochastic methods to creating models of contaminant transport and dispersion in riversand groundwater 326

V. Jegatheesan, G. Kastl, I. Fisher, J. Chandy and M. Angles

Water quality modelling for drinking water distribution systems 332

F.A.M. Verdonck, D.P.L. Rousseau, D. Bixio, C. Thoeye and P.A. Vanrolleghem

Added value of concentration-duration-frequency curves of wastewater treatment plant effluentand river water quality 338

G.A. Jenkins

Modelling the hydraulic characteristics of artificial wetlands 344

L. Lymburner, P.B. Hairsine, A.A. Held and J.P. Walker

Indices for assessing the spatial distribution and functions of riparian buffer zones 350

A.J. Davidson and I. Salbe

Further development of an instream salt transport model for IQQM 356

R. Beecham, P. Arranz, J. Boddy, M. Burrell, R. Gilmore, A. Javam, J. Martin, R. O’Neill

and I. Salbe

Implementing daily salinity models in the NSW Murray Darling basin tributaries 362

Interactions between field-based monitoring and modellingConveners: Jeffrey McDonell and Markus Weiler

K. Umakhanthan and J.E. Ball

The importance of rainfall models in catchment simulation 368

J.F. Costelloe, R.B. Grayson, T.A. McMahon and R.M. Argent

Landscape controls on runoff and streamflow in large arid zone catchments 374

J.P. Walker, N. Ursino, R.B. Grayson and P.R. Houser

Australian root zone soil moisture: assimilation of remote sensing observations 380

C. Rudiger, R. Davidson, M. Hemakumara, J. Walker, J. Kalma, G. Willgoose and P. Houser

Catchment monitoring for scaling and assimilation of soil moisture and streamflow 386

J. Ticehurst, B.F.W. Croke, J.M. Spate and A.J. Jakeman

Development of a simple cascading bucket model for hillslope hydrology 392

M. Weiler, T. Uchida and J. McDonnell

Connectivity due to preferential flow controls water flow and solute transport at the hillslope scale 398

K.T. Bjornsson, B. Ostendorf and F. Recknagel

Using wetland nutrient modelling to estimate River Murray and floodplain wetland water exchange 404

C.J. Ocampo, M. Sivapalan, and C.E. Oldham

Perceptual model of coupled hydrological and biogeochemical responses based on reconciliationof multiscale, multicomponent observations 410

S. Wealands, R. Grayson and J. Walker

Hydrologic model assessment from automated spatial pattern comparison techniques 416

J.M. Spate, B.F. Croke and A.J. Jakeman

Data mining in hydrology 422

The challenge of linking meso- and macroscale basin approaches:

concepts, modelling strategies and related global initiativesConvener: Wolfgang-Albert Flügel

J.S. Wallace

HELP bridging scales in water science, management and policy 428

W-A. Flügel and F. Rijsberman

The challenge program “Water and Food” for river basin scale water resources assessment 434

M. Märker, M. Flörke, S. Vassolo and J. Alcamo (Presenter: K. Bongartz)

Preliminary assessment of IPCC-SRES scenarios on future water resources using the WaterGAP 2 model 440

C.J. Vörösmarty, E. M. Douglas, P. A. Green and C. Revenga

A geospatial approach to assessing water stress in Africa 446

K. Scipal, W. Wagner, A. Ceballos, J. Martínez-Fernández and C. Scheffler

The potential of scatterometer derived soil moisture for catchment scale modelling 452

K. Bongartz, W.A. Flügel, P. Krause and U. Taddei

Geoinformatics toolset for integrated river basin management (IRBM) in the Saale River,Thueringia, Germany 458

TABLE OF CONTENTS

VOLUME 2

Keynote

C. Pahl-Wostl

The importance of the human dimension in integrated assessment models and processes: actorbased analysis and modelling approaches 465

Terrain analysis and spatial processes

Convener: John Gallant

J.C. Aguero, A. Feuer and G. Goodwin

Terrain modelling via triangular regular networks 473

H. Farabi

A risk based approach using terrain attributes to control water quality impacts caused by forest roads 479

H. Lu, C.J. Moran and I.P. Prosser

Modelling sediment delivery ratio over Murray Darling Basin 485

Z. Paydar and J. Gallant

Applying a spatial modelling framework to assess land use effects on catchment hydrology 491

G. Summerell, J. Vaze, N.K. Tuteja, R. Grayson and T.I. Dowling

Development of an objective terrain analysis based method for delineating the major landforms ofcatchments 496

B. Murphy, G. Geeves, M. Miller, G. Summerell, P. Southwell and M. Rankin

The application of pedotransfer functions with existing soil maps to predict soil hydraulic propertiesfor catchment-scale hydrologic and salinity modelling 502

N.K. Tuteja, J. Vaze, G.T.H. Beale, G. Summerell and M.Miller

Spatial disaggregation of catchment scale fluxes 508

Scaling up and down in natural resource managementConvener: John Gross

P. Perez, A. Dray, I. White, C. LePage and T. Falkland

Atollscape: simulating freshwater management in Pacific Atolls. Spatial processes and timedependence issues 514

J.N. Park, D.H. Cobon and D.G. Phelps

Modelling pasture growth in the Mitchell Grasslands 519

A.C. Liedloff, J.A. Ludwig and M.B. Coughenour

Simulating overland flow and soil infiltration using an ecological approach 525

D.D. Kandel, A.W. Western and R.B. Grayson

A scaling approach to capture sub-time-step rainfall variability in rainfall-runoff and erosion modelling 530

N. Gupta, R. Rudra, G. Parkin and H.R. Whiteley

Fractal behavior of soil physical and hydraulic properties 536

Adaptive planning and management frameworks for coastal waterwaysConvener: Paul Lawrence

T.G. Nguyen and J.L. de Kok

Application of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for the validation of an integrated systemsmodel for coastal zone management 542

E.J. McLean, B.L. McPherson and J.B. Hinwood

A decision support tool for prioritising remediation works in a catchment/estuarine bay system 548

P.A. Lawrence, J.C. Bennett, and D. Barchiesi

An adaptive management framework to support regional resource planning 554

Landuse change in tropical systemsConvener: Meine van Noordwijk

B.J.P. Verbist, A. Widayati and M. Van Noordwijk

The link between land and water prediction of sediment point sources in a previously forestedwatershed in Lampung, Sumatra, Indonesia 560

T.K. Manik and R.C. Sidle

Rainfall spatial distribution in Sumber Jaya watershed, Lampung, Indonesia 566

M. Van Noordwijk, A. Farida, D. Suyamto, B. Lusiana and N. Khasanah

Spatial variability of rainfall governs river flow and reduces effects of land use change at landscapescale: GenRiver and SpatRain simulations 572

G. Parkin, J. Pollacco and S. Birkinshaw

Predicting the impact of afforestation or deforestation on recharge using only time seriessoil moisture and hydrometeorological data 578

D. Suprayogo, Widinto, W.G. Cadisch and M. Van Noordwijk

A pedotransfer resource database (PTFRDB) for tropical soils: test with the water balance of WaNuLCAS 584

A. Kinsey-Henderson, I. Prosser and D. Post

SubNet – predicting sources of sediment at sub-catchment scale using SedNet 590

J. Vaze, G.T.H. Beale, P. Barnett and N.K. Tuteja

Predicting the spatial and temporal effects of landuse change using the CATSALT modelling framework 596

R.C. Sidle and A.S. Dhakal

Recent advances in the spatial and temporal modeling of shallow landslides 602

D. Suyamto, M. Van Noordwijk, D.P. Hadi and B. Lusiana

FALLOW model: assessment tool for landscape level impact of farmer land use choices 608

Natural hazard and risk modellingConvener: Andre Zerger

S. Wooldridge and T. Done

The use of bayesian belief networks to aid in the understanding and management of large-scalecoral bleaching 614

X.G. Lin

Statistical modelling of severe wind gust 620

J. Savioli, M. Britton, S. Szylkarski and C. Pederson

Tropical cyclones modelling for natural disaster risk management 626

A. Zerger and G. MacLaren

Floodbank: an internet based architecture for distributing spatial flood data 631

C. Fernández, G. Carbonell, J.V.Tarazona

Probabilistic approximation to risk assessment of basins by ecotoxicological evaluation 637

S. Liu, L. Leslie, M. Speer and R. Bunker

Predicting forest fire danger using improved model derived soil moisture and antecedent precipitation 642

A. Siqueira, A. Zerger, I. Bishop and S. Jones

The influence of climatic anomalies on hotspots occurence in the Brazilian Amazon region 648

S. Sangawongse, P. Pinkantayonk and W. Nawapramote

Use of remote sensing, GIS and field survey techniques for forest fire mapping in the Upper NanWatershed, Northern Thailand 654

GIS and environmental modellingConvener: David Pullar

N. Herron and P. Peterson

A simplified GIS-based approach to prioritise salinity investment at the property-scale 660

M. Matthies and J.Klasmeier

Geo-referenced stream pollution modelling and aquatic exposure assessment 666

M. Puotinen

Modelling tropical cyclone disturbance of the Great Barrier Reef using GIS 672

A.D. Simms, C.D. Woodroffe and B.G. Jones

Application of RUSLE for erosion management in a coastal catchment, Southern NSW 678

L. Adair and A. Rahman

Identification of erosion potential in an urban river in North Australia using GIS and hydrodynamic model 684

W. Cartwright, B. Williams and C. Pettit

Geographical visualization using rich media and enhanced GIS 690

S.J. Kininmonth, T. Donovan and S. Edgar

Fusing scientific modelling with knowledge management systems 696

L. Zhang, T. Dowling, M. Hocking, J. Morris, G. Adams, K. Hickel, A. Best and R. Vertessy

Modelling the effects of large-scale plantation on streamflow and water allocation: a case study for theGoulburn-Broken Catchments 702

S.W. Laffan, H. Silcock, O. Nielsen and M. Hegland

A new approach to analysing spatial data using sparse grids 708

K. Krivoruchko and C.A. Gotway

Using spatial statistics in GIS 713

Beyond metapopulations: macroecological modellingConvener: Sean Connelly

W.J. Chivers, R.D. Herbert and W. Gladstone

Heterogeneous resource partitioning in a generalised individual-based model of multi-species interaction 719

T. Sakata, K. Tainaka, Y. Ito and J. Yoshimura

Stability of specialists feeding on a generalist 725

J. Yoshimura, H. Amagai, T. Suzuki, T. Togashi and T. Miyazaki

Population dynamics of some mutualistic relationships 730

T. Togashi, A. Kaide, T. Miyazaki, T. Suzuki, N. Nakagiri, J. Yoshimura, J.L. Bartelt and P.A. Cox

Simulation of mating behavior of Gametes and the evolution of anisogamy in marine green algae:isogamy, slight anisogamy and marked anisogamy 736

T. Miyazaki, K. Takeya, T. Togashi, N. Nakagiri, T. Suzuki and J. Yoshimura

Effects of Ammonium concentration and dilution on the competition between the CyanobacteriumMicrosystis Novacekii and the green alga Scenedesmus Quadricuada 742

B.J. Cairns and P.K. Pollett

Evaluating persistence times in populations that are subject to local catastrophes 747

T. D’heygere, P. Goethals, A. Dedecker and N. De Pauw

Development of a monitoring network to model the habitat suitability of macroinvertebrates in theZwalm River Basin (Flanders, Belgium) 753

S. Shanmuganathan, P. Sallis and J. Buckeridge

Ecological modelling with self-organising maps 759

Information in ecosystems – theory and models about functional releance

of inter and intraspecific information in ecosystemsConvener: Markus Knoflacher

A.L. Mayer, C.W. Pawlowski, H. Cabezas and N.T. Hoagland

Estimating sustainability of a simple human society and its associated ecosystem using resilienceand fisher information 765

O.A. Voie

Information indexing in a Bayesian network for risk assessment of land-use decisions on threatened species 771

H.M. Knoflacher

Functional roles of information in ecosystems – a theoretical approach 777

Natural computing methods for modelling water resources and hydrologyConvener: Holger Maier

G.J. Bowden, J.B. Nixon, H.R. Maier, G.C. Dandy and M. Holmes

Forecasting Chlorine residuals in a water distribution system using a general regression neural network 783

M.S. Gibbs, N. Morgan, H.R. Maier, G.C. Dandy, M. Holmes and J.B. Nixon

Use of artificial neural networks for modelling Chlorine residuals in water distribution systems 789

A.C. Zecchin, H.R. Maier, A.R.Simpson, A. Roberts, M.J. Berrisford and M. Leonard

Max-min Ant system applied to water distribution system optimisation 795

N. Siriwardene and B.J.C. Perera

Selection of genetic algorithm operators for urban drainage model parameter optimisation 801

H.R. Maier, L. Radbone, T. Finkemeyer, T. Hume, M. Butchart and P. Goonan

Optimising the mutual information of ecological data clusters using genetic algorithms 807

N. Horrigan and F. Recknagel

Generic artificial neural network framework for habitat assessment and prediction of Australianstream systems 813

U. Yadav

Runoff generation using soil moisture and neural network models 819

G.B. Kingston, H.R. Maier and M.F. Lambert

Understanding the mechanisms modelled by artificial neural networks for hydrological prediction 825

L. Marshall, A. Sharma and D. Nott

Efficient Bayesian model selection in hydrological modelling 831

G.B. Kingston, M.F. Lambert and H.R. Maier

Development of stochastic artificial neural networks for hydrological prediction 837

C. Rajanayaka, D. Kulasiri and S. Samarasinghe

A comparative study of parameter estimation in hydrology modelling: artificial neural networksand curve fitting approaches 843

Surface water modellingConvener: Neil Viney

M.C. Peel, F.G.R. Watson and R.A. Vertessy

Modelling impacts of land use change on low flows in the North Esk River using the Macaque Model 849

H. Koivusalo, T. Kokkonen, A. Laurén, M. Ahtiainen, T. Karvonen, H. Mannerkoski, S. Penttinen,

P. Seuna, M. Starr, P. Vakkilainen and L. Finér

Parameterization and application of a hillslope model to assess hydrological impacts of forest harvesting 855

A. Best, L. Zhang, T. McMahon and A. Western

Development of a model for predicting the changes in flow duration curves due to altered landuse conditions 861

A. Longobardi, P. Villani, R.B. Grayson and A.W. Western

On the relationship between runoff coefficient and catchment initial conditions 867

B.M. Watson, S. Selvalingam and M. Ghafouri

Evaluation of SWAT for modelling the water balance of the Woady Yaloak River Catchment, Victoria 873

P.W. Carlile, B.F.W. Croke and A.J. Jakeman

Identifying evapotranspiration relationships for input into rainfall-runoff models using the SWIM model 879

J. Charalambous, A. Rahman and D. Carroll

Application of Monte Carlo simulation technique with URBS model for design flood estimation oflarge catchments 885

O.P. Droop and W.C. Boughton

Integration of WBNM into a continuous simulation system for design flood estimation 891

B.G. Anderson, I. Rutherfurd and A. Western

An analysis of the influence of riparian vegetation on the propagation of flood waves 897

T. Shoji and Y. Fukui

Estimating fresh-water fish habitat using the Phabsim system 903

M.J. McMaster, D.G. Provis, R.B. Grayson and W.A. Bishop

Calibration and testing of a hydrodynamic model of the Gippsland Lakes 909

R. Silberstein

Why collect data when we can model it? 915

C. Zammit, M. Sivapalan, N.R. Viney and M. Bari

Improvement of physical basis of conceptual model, LASCAM, with explicit inclusion ofwithin-catchment heterogeneity of landscape attributes 921

B. Sivakumar

Evidence of low-dimensional determinism in river flow dynamics: examples from predictions 927

J.G. Chanat and J.P. Norton

Interpreting hydrologic response using transfer function models with time-varying parameters:an example from the Virginia Blue Ridge 933

J.P. Norton and J.G. Chanat

Assessing rainfall-runoff records for time invariance using transfer function models withtime-varying parameters 939

TABLE OF CONTENTS

VOLUME 3

Keynote

P.C.B. Phillips

Challenges of trending time series econometrics 945

Regional-scale enironmental-economic systems

Convener: Romy Greiner

A. Sadoddin, R.A. Letcher and A.J. Jakeman

A Bayesian decision network approach for salinity management in the Little River Catchment, NSW 953

T. Graham, B. White and D.J. Pannell

Preliminary research from a spatial and dynamic hydrology/economic model for dryland salinity 959

B. Yu, J. Tisdell, G. Podger, and I. Salbe

A hydrologic and economic model for water trading and reallocation using linear programmingtechniques 965

P.L.M. Goethals, J.J. Bouma, D. François, T. D’heygere, A. Dedecker, V. Adriaenssens and N. De Pauw

Coupling ecosystem valuation methods to the waeco decision support system in the ZwalmCatchment (Belgium) 971

R. Monypenny

Regional scale development issues 977

S. Kwonpongsagoon, T.D. Waite and S.J. Moore

Use of information from substance flux analysis for human health risk assessment at regionalscales: Cadmium as a case study in Australia 983

N. Tangsubkul, S. Moore and T.D. Waite

Toxic substance accumulation prediction: a useful addition to conventional life cycle assessmentwhen comparing water recycling technology 989

A. Herr, N. Stoeckl and R. Greiner

Modelling the adoption of environmental management practices by farmers 995

J. Gross, R. McAllister, N. Abel, D.M. Stafford-Smith, and Y. Maru

Australian rangelands as complex adaptive systems: a conceptual model and preliminary results 1001

Modelling ecological and economic systems to measure ecological

and environmental impacts from natural resource useConvener: Jackie Robinson

R. Mathevet, R. Lifran, A. Mauchamp, G. Lefebvre and B. Poulin

ReedSim: simulating ecological and economical dynamics of Mediterranean reedbeds 1007

L. Chapman and L. Cao

An agent based bioeconomic model of a fishery with input controls 1013

O. Thebaud and J-C. Soulie

Simulating the short-term response of fisheries to regulatory controls: a multi agent approach 1019

L. Cao and K. Lawson

A spatiotemporal bioeconomic model for marine reserve design 1025

J. Hamilton and S. Clark

An economic analysis of a climatic prediction rule to trigger drought management strategies 1031

R. Greiner, A. Smajgl and C. Mayocchi

Modelling the implications of water reform on sugar cane farms in the Lower Burdekin Region 1036

T. Tumaneng-Diete, S. Karabut, S. Cottier and M. Ferguson

Integrating biophysical and socio-economic models to achieve triple bottom line outcomes onQueensland State Forests 1042

D.B. Magcale-Macandog and C.D. Predo

Environmental and economic impacts of land-use change in imperata areas: a bioeconomicmodelling approach 1048

H. Purnomo and P. Guizol

Governing forest plantation to reduce poverty and improve forest landscape: a multiagentimulation approach 1054

A. Bah, I. Touré and C. Le Page

An agent-based model for understanding the multiple uses of land and resources arounddrilling sites in Sahel 1060

S. Shanmuganathan, P. Sallis and J. Buckeridge

Self-organising map methods in integrated modelling of environmental-economic systems 1066

Modelling in energy marketsConvener: Clinton Watkins

K. Fatai, L. Oxley and F.G. Scrimgeour

Energy efficiency and the New Zealand economy: a dynamic CGE analysis 1072

C.A. Baloi, J.A. Belward and M. Bulmer

Genetic unit commitment model in a deregulated power energy environment 1078

C.A. Baloi, J.A. Belward, M. Bulmer and C. Tintos

Multi – area unit commitment in the national electricity market 1084

R. Ramalinga and S.V.L. Narasimham

Energy conservation in domestic sector for better utilization of power – Indian context 1090

Greenhouse gas emissions markets, policy and impactsConvener: Clinton Watkins

T. Islam and J. Kennedy

Transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources by the north and the south 1095

K. Fatai, L. Oxley and F.G. Scrimgeour

Modelling economies of scale and imperfect competition using CGE: a comparative applicationto the energy sector of New Zealand, Canada, Singapore and Mozambique 1101

T. Okano, T. Kusakawa, T. Saijo and A. Suzuki

Agent-based simulation of emissions trading: evaluation of non-compliance penalty andcommitment period reserve 1107

K. Fujime

Assessment of market systems for CO2 emissions trading as environmental policy options, with

special emphasis on evaluation of intertemporal trading 1113

C. Watkins

Climate change and trade relations between Australia and Japan 1118

Tourism, hospitality management and environmental modellingConvener: Christine Lim

R. Shareef

Small island tourism economies: a bird’s eye view 1124

R.M. Itami

RBSim3: agent-based simulations of human behaviour in GIS environments using hierarchicalspatial reasoning 1130

J. Gnoth, C. Lim and R.S. Toh

Tourism rejuvenation in Australia 1136

R. Shareef

Small island tourism economies: a snapshot of country risk ratings 1142

A. O’Connor, A. Zerger and B. Itami

Building better agents: geo-temporal tracking and analysis of tourist behavior 1148

R. Greiner, N. Stoeckl and C. Mayocchi

Improving benefits from tourism to communities in Australia’s tropical savannas 1154

C. Lim and G.W. Pan

An econometric analysis of inbound tourism for China 1160

Modelling intellectual propertyConvener: Dora Marinova

F. Chan, D. Marinova and M. McAleer

Modelling the asymmetric volatility of anti-pollution technology patents in the USA 1166

T. Tomita

A comparative analysis of domestic patent applications of South-east Asian Countries usingHarschman-Herfindahl Index 1172

K. Smith and D. Marinova

Bibliometric modelling and policy making 1177

D. Marinova and M. McAleer

Anti-pollution innovation strengths indicators based on US patents 1183

T. Tomita

International patent cartels and patent statistics between World War I and World War II 1189

D. Marinova and M. McAleer

International rankings of industrial property 1194

K. Smith and D. Marinova

Academic publishing in the Australian changing funding environment: an analysis of journal rankingin the geosciences 1200

T. Tomita

An heuristic analysis of long life leading companies in orders of patent applications 1206

The analysis of high frequency financial data and market microstructure issuesConvener: Dave Allen

S. Peiris, D. Allen and W. Yang

Some statistical models for durations and their applications in finance 1211

M. Aitken, D.E. Allen and W.J. Yang

Some evidence on the information content of undisclosed limit orders on the ASX 1215

D.E. Allen and V. Soucik

Some evidence on the performance benchmarking of Australian fixed interest funds 1221

Risk analysis and modellingConvener: Suhejla Hoti

S. Hoti

Rating risk rating systems 1227

G.M. Caporale, E. Panopoulou and N. Pittis

The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle revisited: a monte carlo study 1233

F. Chan and M. McAleer

Modelling multivariate asymmetric financial volatility 1239

S. Hoti

The international country risk guide: an empirical evaluation 1245

Time series analysisConvener: Colin McKenzie

H. Yamada

Some monte carlo evidence on the hypothesis testing for the mean of stationary vector autoregressiveprocess 1251

W.S. Chan and S.H. Cheung

A bivariate threshold time series model for analyzing Australian interest rates 1257

K. Sato

Real interest rate linkages in the Asian-Pacific Region: a time-varying parameter approach 1263

L.K. Lim

Multi-country currency unions in East Asia 1269

M.D. Craine, Y.W. Cheng and J. Prescott

A catch rate-environment time series approach to the prediction of catches taken from the EsperanceSouthern Rock Lobster Fishery 1275

B.G. Lewis, R.D. Herbert and R.D. Bell

The application of fourier analysis to forecasting the inbound call time series of a call centre 1281

Modelling in financeConvener: John Sequeira

K.A. Wong, J.M. Sequeira and M. McAleer

Is there information content in insider trades in the Singapore exchange? 1287

K. Radalj

Hedgers, speculators and forward markets: evidence from currency markets 1293

S. Ling

MLE for change-point in ARMA-GARCH models with a changing drift 1299

Empirical finance and financial managementConvener: Peter Verhoeven

H. Gatfaoui

How does systematic risk impact stocks? A study on the French financial market 1305

S. d’Addona and P. Brighi

An empirical investigation of the Italian Stock Market based on the Three Factors Model 1311

C.K.Y. Leung, W.L. Law, and Y.F. Chow

Company investors versus individual investors in the Hong Kong property market 1317

Modelling conditional and stochastic volatilityConvener: Felix Chan

F. Chan and M. McAleer

Statistical properties of STAR-GARCH models: an empirical evaluation 1323

M. Kobayashi and M. McAleer

Testing the elasticity of volatility with respect to the level of an integrated process 1329

P. Verhoeven and M. McAleer

Detecting local outliers in financial time series 1335

K. Radalj and M. McAleer

Speculation and destabilization 1341

C. Watkins and M. McAleer

Correlation in volatility among related commodity markets 1347

Economic growth and developmentConvener: Baiding Hu

L.T. Van Trinh, J. Gibson and L. Oxley

Measuring the stock of human capital in New Zealand 1353

M-H. Chien

A human resource management model designed for Chinese business processes 1359

M-H. Chien

A study to improve organizational citizenship behaviors 1364

H. Yuen

A Cluster-Based Approach for identifying East Asian Economies: A foundation for monetary integration 1368

B. Hu and M. McAleer

Estimation of Chinese agricultural production efficiencies with panel data 1374

B. O’Regan and R. Moles

The dynamics of relative attractiveness: minerals exploration in the developing world 1380

Econometric modellingConvener: Michael McAleer

K. Hitomi

Empirical likelihood, exponential tilting, and GMM estimators with a number of moment conditions 1386

Y. Nishiyama

Bootstrap bandwidth and kernel order selection for density weighted averages 1392

M. Fukushige and I. Miyara

Statistical hypothesis testing for returns to scale using data envelopment analysis 1398

K. Oya

Properties of estimators of count data model with endogenous switching 1404

K. Sato, Z. Zhang and M. McAleer

Shocking aspects of East Asian monetary integration: an optimum currency area approach 1409

K. Nawata and M. Ii

Estimation of the labor participation and wage equation model of Japanese married womenby the simultaneous maximum likelihood method 1415

B. Hu and M. McAleer

Time series analysis of aggregate consumption in China 1421

M. McAleer and J.C. Wei Nam

Testing for monetary integration and contagion in ASEAN exchange rates 1427

Corporate financeConvener: Colin McKenzie

C-T. Lin

A generalized capital asset pricing model 1433

V.I. Tian, E.Y.L. Keung and Y.F. Chow

Economic value added in the Hong Kong listed companies: a preliminary evidence 1439

C-T. Lin

Dividend policies, legal regimes and market systems in the Asia Pacific region 1445

J.C.Y. How, C.X. Huang and P. Verhoeven

Information asymmetry surrounding earnings and dividend announcements: an intra-day analysis 1451

S. Takaoka and C.R. McKenzie

The impact of competition in the Japanese underwriting market 1457

C.R. McKenzie and S. Takaoka

The impact of Japanese deregulation on the Euro-Yen bond market 1463

Economic modellingConvener: Les Oxley

R.D Herbert and G.D. Leeves

Optimal control of unemployment in a general equilibrium job search model 1469

R. McAllister and M. Bulmer

Genetic algorithms and stochastic forest property rights enforcement 1475

R.D. Herbert, P.J. Stemp and W.E. Griffiths

An evaluation of alternative approaches to solving large-scale macroeconomic models 1481

E. Aiyoshi and A. Maki

A simulation of the non-cooperative Nash equilibrium model 1487

A. Gelan

Commuting, migration, and rural development 1493

Y. Sato

City structure, search and workers’ job acceptance behavior 1499

T. Fukiharu

General equilibrium analysis on arms exports to developing countries in conflict 1505

D. Marsh and L. Oxley

Modelling innovation activity in the New Zealand biotechnology sector 1511

TABLE OF CONTENTS

VOLUME 4

Keynote

J.P. Norton

Prediction for decision-making under uncertainty 1517

Modelling and simulation of agricultural systems

Convener: David White

M. Rivington, K.B. Matthews and K. Buchan

Quantifying the uncertainty in spatially explicit land-use model predictions arising from the useof substituted climate data 1528

K.B. Matthews, K. Buchan and A. Dalziel

Evaluating labour requirements within a multi-objective land-use planning tool 1534

B.P. Marchant, E. Audsley, J.E. Annetts, K.R. Pearn and M.Rounsevell

Simulating agricultural decision making to project future land use 1540

D.L. Liu, M.K. Conyers and K.R. Helyar

Simulation of the changes in soil pH of various acidic soils through lime applications 1546

D. Singh, V. Rao, S. Singh and R. Singh

Testing the performance and application of BRASSICA model 1552

L.J. Erakovic, A. Subic, B. Abu-Hijleh and D. McLaren

Modelling and simulation of Chilean Needle Grass spread during slashing 1557

P. DeVoil, W. Rossing and G.L. Hammer

Exploring profit – sustainability trade-offs in cropping systems using evolutionary algorithms 1562

D.G. Mayer, B.P. Kinghorn and A.A. Archer

“Simple” differential evolution for beef model optimisation 1568

L.C. McArthur, J.W. Boland and F. Tiver

Parameter estimation for stage-structured projection models using real data 1574

P.M. Pepper, A.J. Swain and M. Lyndal-Murphy

Using simulation techniques to investigate methods to determine resistance of helminths toanthelmintic treatment 1580

A.E. McKinnon, S.T. Bell and A.R. Sykes

Using a model of magnesium dynamics in cows to predict the risk of tetany in dairy herds 1586

F. Guerrin and J.M. Paillat

Modelling biomass fluxes and fertility transfers: animal wastes management in the Reunion Island 1591

A.J. Clark and B. Forester

A proto-type dynamic model of the Australian sheep flock 1597

Integrative modelling for sustainable water allocationConvener: Sergei Schreider

D.H. White, N. Beynon and O. Kingma

Opportunities for achieving water savings throughout the Murray Darling Basin 1603

L.E. Brennan, S.N. Lisson, P.L. Poulton, P.S. Carberry, K.L. Bristow and S. Khan

Assessing the economic and environmental benefits and risks of investing in recycled water forirrigation on the Darling Downs, Australia 1609

E. Xevi and S. Khan

A multi-objective optimization approach to water management 1615

A. Hafi

Investment in refurbishment of irrigation channels – a case study of the Stanbridge systemin the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area 1621

B.J.C. Perera, B. James, and M.D.U. Kularathna

Computer software tool for sustainable water allocation and management – REALM 1627

J.K. Gilmour, R.A. Letcher and A.J. Jakeman

Sensitivity analysis of an integrated model approach for assessing land and water policy options 1633

K.M. Hyde, H.R. Maier and C.B. Colby

The applicability of robustness measures to water resources decision making 1639

K. Saifuk and S. Ongsomwang

A decision support framework for catchment based natural resource management 1645

R.A. Letcher and P. Aluwihare

Development of a decision support system for the Namoi and Gwydir Valleys 1649

G.M. Bazzani

A DSS for an integrated analysis of irrigation at farm and catchment level: DSIRR 1655

Sensitivity analysis and applicationsConvener: Roger Braddock

S. Schreider, B. James, M. Seker and E. Weinmann

Sensitivity and error propagation analysis for the Goulburn simulation model built by REALM 1661

J.P. Norton, R. Nathan, G. Podger and R. Vertessy (presenter: R. Argent)

Sensitivity assessment needs of complex simulation models for integrated catchment management 1667

T. Suzuki, N. Nakagiri, K-I. Tainaka, T. Togashi, T. Miyazaki and J. Yoshimura

A role of a low-density species on the community outcomes in a model ecosystem 1673

Y. Itoh, S. Gotoh, N. Nakagiri, T. Sakata and K-I. Tainaka

Perturbation experiment and extinction processes in a prey-predator lattice system 1679

C.A. Baloi, J.A. Belward and M. Bulmer

Sensitivity analysis of the National electricity market 1685

N. Nakagiri, K-I. Tainaka, T. Togashi, T. Miyazaki and J. Yoshimura

Parameter sensitivity in a lattice ecosystem with intraguild predation 1691

J. Whitcombe, R. Cropp, R. Braddock and I. Agranovski

The use of sensitivity analysis and genetic algorithms for the management of catalyst emissions from oil refineries 1697

Geostatistical developments and applicationsConvener: Peter Brooker

R. Dimitrakopoulos and S. Mackie

Stochastic simulation for the quantification of mine spoil variability and rehabilitation decisionmaking 1703

B.P. Marchant and R.M. Lark

Adaptive schemes for geostatistical sampling and survey 1709

Integrated modelling environments – analysis, design and implementationConveners: Ralf Denzer and Rob Argent

R.M. Argent, R.A. Vertessy, J.M. Rahman, S.M. Cuddy, G.M. Podger and D.R. Perry

Building a modelling toolkit for prediction of catchment behaviour 1715

R. Grayson, R. Argent, R. Vertessy, P. Hairsine and G. Podger

An “Integration Blueprint” to underpin the development of the catchment modelling toolkit 1721

J.M. Rahman, S.P. Seaton, J-M. Perraud, H. Hotham, D.I. Verrelli and J.R. Coleman

It’s TIME for a new environmental modelling framework 1727

J-M. Perraud, G. Podger, J.M. Rahman and R.A. Vertessy

A new rainfall-runoff software library 1733

R. Denzer, R. Güttler, T. Hell and M. Villa

Integration of heterogeneous software components in a pesticide decision support system 1739

A. Jolma and A. Rizzoli

A review of interoperability techniques for models, data, and knowledge in environmental software 1745

E. Post

Designing and implementing computer simulation models for portability and reuse 1751

R. Denzer, R. Güttler, S. Schlobinski and J. Williams

A decision support system for marine applications 1757

W. Dar Lin

Using dynamic processing of web site usage to examine consumer behavior 1763

Industrial modelling and optimisationConvener: Lou Caccetta

M.I. Ali, P.A. Schneider and N. Hudson

Assessing nutrient recovery from piggery effluents 1769

C.J. Barnes, D. Kulawiec, P. Marsh and R. Solomon

Developing a management model for a complex business system 1775

L. Caccetta, S. Kostova and V.G. Rumchev

Positive linear dynamic model of mobile source air pollution and related problems 1781

L. Caccetta and B. Wattananon

Project networks with mixed-time constraints 1787

A.H. Dekker

Using agent-based modelling to study organisational performance and cultural differences 1793

G. Kastl, I.H. Fisher, A. Sathasivan, P. Chen and J.A. Van Leeuwen

Modelling water quality from source water to tap by integration of process models 1799

V. Jegatheesan and S. Vigneswaran

Mathematical modelling of deep bed filtration 1805

S.K. Lim and F.T. Mavondo

The structure of strategic capabilities, implications for organisational agility and superiorperformance: a conceptual framework 1811

D.S. Liu, E. Post, D. Kulasiri, and R.A. Sherlock

Optimisation of a complex simulation model 1817

O. Montes de Oca, C.K.G Dake, A.E. Dooley and D. Clark

A dairy supply chain model of the New Zealand dairy industry 1823

B.J. Mullins, R.D. Braddock and I.E. Agranovski

Fibre wetting processes in wet filtration 1829

J. Van Leeuwen, M. Holmes, C. Heidenreich, R. Daly, I. Fisher, G. Kastl, A. Sathasivan

and D. Bursill

Modelling the application of inorganic coagulants and pH control reagents for removal of organicmatter from drinking waters 1835

P. Welgama and R. Oyston

Study of options to increase the throughput of the Hunter Valley coal chain 1841

D. Wilson and R. Laney

The use of simulation for clothing manufacturing executives; a case study 1847

Mathematical and statistical techniquesConvener: Mal Heron

K-C. Chiou

A study of imputing censored observations for 2-parameter weibull distribution based on randomcensoring 1852

M.D. Smith

Using copulas in statistical models of switching regimes 1857

P.K. Pollett and V.T. Stefanov

A method for evaluating the distribution of the total cost of a random process over its lifetime 1863

R. Sabbadin

Approximating spatial markov decision processes for environmental management 1868

A.A. Bartolucci, A.D. Bartolucci and K.P. Singh

Sample size requirements for stratified random sampling of pond water with cost considerationsusing a bayesian methodology 1874

T.P. Hancock, D.H. Coomans and Y.L. Everingham

Supervised hierarchical clustering using CART 1880

M.A. Shahin, H.R. Maier, M.B. Jaksa

Neural and neurofuzzy techniques applied to modelling settlement of shallow foundations ongranular soils 1886

Virtual simulation systems and their applicationsConvener: Toshio Nakanishi

N. Mukai, Y. Sakaguchi and M. Kosugi

A method for generating texture images used on landscape simulation 1892

C. Stock and I.D. Bishop

Development of an envisioning system for rural communities 1898

R. Kohashi

The management of consumer’s community on a website bulletin-board service 1904

Z. Li and R. Sitte

Modelling unsynchronized motion dynamics for truthful VR visualizations 1910

K. Tatur and R. Sitte

Modeling flexibility with spline approximations for fast VR visualizations 1915

B. Abu-Hijleh, J. Tu, A. Subic and L. Fostineo

Effect of inlet/outlet fillets on the clearance flow in rotor-casing assembly 1921

Integrated modelling of the growth of cities and mega-citiesConvener: Tad Soroczynski

S. Egger

The sustainability of cities: determining an appropriate model 1926

D. Pullar and C. Pettit

Improving urban growth forecasting with cellular automata: a case study for Hervey Bay 1932

A. Gelan

Trade policy and mega-cities in LDCs: a general equilibrium model with numerical simulations 1938

S. Egger

Globalisation and the sustainability of cities: a methodology for determining their relationship 1944

Statistical modelling in health and biomedical sciencesConvener: Karan Singh

M. Tsuji, W. Suzuki, and F. Taoka

An empirical analysis of the economic assessment of the tele-health system by the CVM method 1950

N. Yatawara, J. Piek and H. Lin

An analysis of the development of motor coordination of infants through transfer function models 1956

K.P. Singh, J.T. Wulu, Jr, S. Bae, A.A. Bartolucci and F. Trevino

Modeling hospital discharge counts across zip code areas 1962

B. Berg, G. La Penna, V. Minicozzi, S. Morante and G.C. Rossi

Multi-canonical algorithms for folding processes 1967

M. Bulmer and K. Fleetwood

Estimation issues in allometric scaling models 1973

D. Carey, S. Bae, R. Shanmugam, A.A. Bartolucci and K.P. Singh

Assessing therapeutic equivalence of three proportions using weighted likelihood ratio andequivalence cube 1979

Simulation of traffic control systemsConvener: Toshio Nakanishi

S. Yaskawa

High fidelity real-time railroad simulation- its necessity, advantages, and results 1984

Y. Hibiya, K. Chiba,T. Fujikura, I. Miyoshi and T. Nakanishi

GPS-based mobile information board system 1990

H. Itoh, M. Numano and E. Pedersen

Modeling and simulation of sea traffic and a visualization-based collision avoidance support system 1996

M. Numano, H. Itoh, J. Fukuto and Y. Niwa

Simulation study on sea traffic control at an intersection utilizing information sharing withautomatic identification system (AIS) 2002

M. Takahashi, M. Kaneko, Y. Futatsuishi, I. Watanabe and T. Nakanishi

A study of the scheduling simulation system of U-shaped production line with multi-workers usingeM-Plant 2008

M. Namekawa, H. Mori, A. Satoh and T. Nakanishi

Synchronization method for continuous-event parallel simulation 2012

Modelling and analysis of transport systemsConvener: Lal Wadhwa

J. Taplin

Modelling the choice of second and subsequent trip destinations as a Markov process:behavioural implications 2018

A.E. Rizzoli, N. Casagrande, A.V. Donati, L.M. Gambardella, D. Lepori, R. Montemanni,

P. Pina and M. Zaffalon

Planning and optimisation of vehicle routes for fuel oil distribution 2024

Y. Tsubota, N. Hirao and H. Kawashima

The evaluation of road pricing for the Tokyo metropolitan area with respect to environment 2030

U. Vandebona and P. Thananupappaisan

Modelling of composition of baggage screening systems at airports 2036

E. Kozan

Container transfer logistics at multimodal container terminals 2042

Modelling and simulation in geomechanical systemsConvener: Karu Karunasena

K. Johnson, P. Lemcke, W. Karunasena and N. Sivakugan

Modelling the response of deep foundations under oblique loading 2048

K.J. Rankine, K.S. Rankine and N. Sivakugan

Quantitative validation of scaled modelling of hydraulic mine drainage using numerical modelling 2054

K. Johnson, M. Christensen, N. Sivakugan and W. Karunasena

Simulating the response of shallow foundations using finite element modelling 2060