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By Linda M. Wheaton, Assistant Deputy DirectorHousing Policy Development Division

California Department of Housing & Community Development (HCD)

Tackling California’s Housing & Community Development

Information Challenges

Housing Statistics Users GroupFriday, October 1, 2004,

University of California, Berkeley

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Our challenge:

• Assist people of diverse cultural backgroundsacross a broadening scope of incomeswith many special needsin or with more housing units, facilities, or servicesfind more jobs

• with a greater variety of servicesthat are more effective or of higher quality

• in the face of ever more difficult and persistent constraints• faster or more cost-effective• with fewer resources, and

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Our challenge, continued:

• succinctly report outcomes

that will compel support for providing this assistance to clientele whose political

voice is often unheard, not very red or very blue,

. . . . from the public, legislators, and appropriation sources

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California has a Priority Need for

A Permanent Source(s) of

Affordable Housing Funding

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While our needs

for information are great, and

we have access to increasing volumes and mediums of data and information, there is a particular need for analysis and interpretation for applying new knowlege

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Does Public Know CA Housing Production Collapsed Relative to Population Growth in

1990s?

Does Public Know CA Housing Production Does Public Know CA Housing Production Collapsed Relative to Population Growth in Collapsed Relative to Population Growth in

1990s?1990s?

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

Multifamily PermitsSingle-family PermitsPopulation Growth

Source: Population Growth (DOF Reports E-7, P-1); Building Permits (1960-1969, U.S. Census Bureau; 1970-1999,CIRB)

CALIFORNIA HOUSING AND DEMOGRAPHIC FUTURESCALIFORNIA HOUSING AND DEMOGRAPHIC FUTURES

Number of Housing Construction Permits Each Decade (left scale) and Growth in Population Each Decade (right scale).

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Economic Cycles

Source: California Statistical Abstract, 1966, 1970, 1977; Construction Industry Research Board, 1975-2004State of California, Department of Housing and Community Development, Housing Policy Development

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2 4P

Single Family Multifamily

California Residential Permits 1954-2003

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Or How Projected Housing Needs Relate to Or How Projected Housing Needs Relate to Recent Construction TrendsRecent Construction Trends

Dowell MyersUSC School of Policy, Planning, and Development

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Long Term Needs1990s ExtendedDecade AverageTotal Permits

?

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CALIFORNIA RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED 1990-2003

Data source: Construction Industry Research Board, March 2004

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

PERMITS 164,313 105,919 97,407 84,525 97,047 85,293 94,283 111,716 125,707 140,137 148,540 148,644 167,761 195,448

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Dowell MyersUSC School of Policy, Planning, and Development

Percent of New Housing in Multifamily Units Each Decade

The Dynamics of Multifamily Production

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Population Change0 to 25,00025,000 to 250,000250,000 to 900,000Source: DOF Demographics Research Unit, 2004

Implications of Population Growth

California 2000-2010:5.2 million

New Residents Projected

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0-55-9

10-1415-19

20-2425-29

30-3435-39

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

60-6465-6970-7475-79

80-8485+

(25,000) (20,000) (15,000) (10,000) (5,000) - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

FemaleMale

0-55-910-14

15-1920-24

25-2930-34

35-3940-44

45-4950-54

55-5960-64

65-6970-74

75-7980-84

85+

(10,000) (8,000) (6,000) (4,000) (2,000) - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

FemaleMale

How Population Differences by

Region A

Region B

Age & Gender Influence Housing

Demand

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0200000400000600000800000

10000001200000140000016000001800000

Pre-School (0-4)School Age (5-17)College Age (18-24)Early Career (24-34)Mid Career (35-54)End Career (55-64)Retirement (65-84)Aged (85+)

How Population Age Cohorts Affect Housing Demand

Source: DOF Demographic Research Unit, 2004

California’s Projected Growth by Age Cohort

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Big Time Affordability Issues

Source: California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), Press Release July 8, 2004; Graphic representation by HCD.

Percentage of households able to afford a median-priced detached home

59%

40%

27% 28%

19% 21%

55%

25%19% 18%

14%11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

United States Riverside/SanBernardino

California Los Angeles SF Bay Area San Diego

May-03 May-04

Housing Affordability IndexMay 2003 & May 2004

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Relationship of Development Fees to Development & Housing Costs

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000

BrentwoodCorona

FairfieldRoseville

TracySalinas

IrvineFresno

CarlsbadLA County

Development Feesper Unit Fee Assessment

PlanningBuilding PermitCapital Facilities

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Regional Development PatternsRegional Development Patterns

Housing Housing Shortfalls Shortfalls Near Job Near Job CentersCenters

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Monitoring Land Supply for DevelopmentMonitoring Land Supply for Development

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Infill Development

sites

– Undeveloped– Redevelopment or infill– Proposed for annexation– Mixed Uses; Transit-

Oriented Development

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We must use our information to Communicate More Effectively

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Hotlinked resources from HCD on Housing & Community Development Issues in California

• Daily Newsbriefs from state newspapers & publication press releases

• Topical Bibliographies with abstracts of current publications

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CALIFORNIA DEPT. OF HOUSING & COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT HOUSING RESOURCE CENTER

Electronic Bibliography Resources on the World Wide Web

Available at HCD’s homepage, these resources compile best practices and the most current research on land use and housing related issues: http://www.hcd.ca.gov/hpd/biblio.html

• Residential Infill and Related Development Issues

• Selected Resources on Second Units

• Publications Related to Urban Development Patterns

• Selected Materials on Inclusionary Housing Issues

• Selected Resources on Homelessness Issues

• Selected Materials on Farm Worker Issues

• Affordable Housing & Relationship to Property Values

• Jobs-Housing Balance

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2004 HCD DAILY WEB NEWS (partial excerpt examples)

AFFORDABLE HOUSINGU.S. DEPT. OF HOUSING & URBAN DEVELOPMENT – HUD ANNOUNCES 2005 RENT DATA - ADDRESSES CONCERNS: New Fair

Market Rents to be published in Federal Register on Friday reduce impact – WASHINGTON (9/28/04) - Today the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development announced its annual Fair Market Rents (FMRs) for communities throughout the nation. http://www.hud.gov/news/release.cfm?content=pr04-096.cfm

SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS - Tax break deal advances affordable housing project - Thanks to San Jose officials, the development group behind Cinnabar Commons . . will receive a property tax break as part of a deal to ensure the completion of one of the city's largest affordable housing projects.

SANTA MARIA TIMES - Board stalls on modifying policy for more affordable housing - A controversial program designed to create more affordable housing by forcing developers to pay fees and build price-restricted units clashed Tuesday with those who feel more details need to be worked out.

HOUSING DEVELOPMENTPRESS-ENTERPRISE - Developer fixes plans to win OK - LOMA LINDA: The changes satisfy most city officials and even earn grudging support

from critics - …American Pacific Homes developer John Snell told the Loma Linda City Council that he fended off objections of dozens of local residents by meeting with critics and addressing their concerns . . .

VENTURA COUNTY STAR - Residents raise issues about apartment plan: Developers appealing vote against it - A plan to build 340 apartments at Gonzales Road and Williams Drive in northeast Oxnard is raising the ire of dozens of people concerned about traffic and other problems related to overcrowding.

LAND USE / PLANNINGLOS ANGELES TIMES - Justices to Take on Cities' Seizure of Private Land: WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court agreed Tuesday to consider

reining in the power of cities to seize private homes to make way for business development. VACAVILLE REPORTER - Southwest Dixon readied for homes - The Dixon City Council unanimously voted to approve the 227-page final

environmental impact report as well as a general plan amendment reconfiguring land-use designations for the 477-acre Southwest Dixon development….

REAL ESTATEU.S. DEPT. OF HOUSING & URBAN DEVELOPMENT –STATEMENT FROM SECRETARY ALPHONSO JACKSON ON AUGUST SALES

OF NEW HOMES WASHINGTON - Sales of new single-family homes in August were the fifth highest ever recorded. The Census Bureau and HUD released data today showing 1.18 million sales last month, an increase of 9.4 percent from July. "These numbers combined with last week's announcement that single-family home construction was near an all-time high in August show that housing is continuing to lead our rapidly recovering economy…

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www.hcd.ca.gov

California Department of Housing & Community Development (HCD)Housing Policy Development Division