Choice Cotton Market Commentary 1

Tailgate ThoughtsAugust 7, 2019

By Jeff Thompson

Choice Cotton Company169 East Main StreetPrattville, AL 36067

AUTAUGAQUALITY COTTON

CHOICECOT TON

The main topic of conversation onthe tailgate this week concerns the cottonmarket’s unexpected 295-point loss last Friday, settling below 60 cents for the firsttime since 2016. Actions by both the USand China clearly indicated an escalationin theongoing tradewarbetween the twocountries.Atthenews,panicsellingensuedsending the commodity and financialmarketsreeling.WewilldiscussthisinmuchmoredetailinournextMarketCommentary.Other conversations from the tailgatecenteraroundthecrop itself,as itsooftendoeswhenenteringthehomestretch.Ihavenever seen a crop which encompasses such awiderangeofageandyieldpotential.Weknew from the start maturity covered a wide

breadth from cotton planted in mid-Aprilto that double cropped and seeded in lateJune. Then,whenconsideringmostofourrainfall hasbeen random isolated showers,yieldsareallovertheboard,aswell.Southeast Conditions Over the past several weeks, rain showers have been few and far betweenacross the region. Coupled with extremeheat, one can easily understand how the Southeastcrophastakenastepbackward;asituationwedesperatelyneededtoavoidinlieuofdecliningprices.Toourgoodfortune,showers this past weekend were more numerous greatly benefitting our youngercotton.Theoldestcottonhasalreadybeguntocutoutbeingkickedintohighgearbythesesameweatherconditions.Asaresult, I feelcertainwewillhavesomecottonharvestedin September. Depending on when and

2 Choice Cotton Market Commentary

http://go.usa.gov/3eZGd

U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook

Author: David Miskus/Adam HartmanNOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center

Drought Tendency During the Valid PeriodValid for August 2019

Released July 31, 2019

Depicts large-scale trends basedon subjectively derived probabilitiesguided by short- and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts. Use caution for applications thatcan be affected by short lived events."Ongoing" drought areas are based on the U.S. Drought Monitorareas (intensities of D1 to D4).

NOTE: The tan areas imply at leasta 1-category improvement in theDrought Monitor intensity levels by the end of the period, although drought will remain. The green areas imply drought removal by the end of the period (D0 or none).

Drought persists

Drought remains but improves

Drought removal likely

Drought development likely

where it rained, there is a wide discrepancy inyields. Case inpoint, thephotosabovewere taken on the same day from two separatefieldsonlyafewmilesapartasthecrowflies.Onehasbeensheddingfruitforsometimeandlikelywon’tpickabaletotheacrewhiletheother,withfavorableweatherthe remainder of the season, could yield overtwo.Withfourtofiveweeksofbloomremainingcottonthathasyettocutoutstillhassomepotential.Southwest ConditionsTheAugustheathashittheSouthwesthardthis week. Temperatures are predicted toreach105forthenextsevendaysinpartsofWest Texas. It’s proving thatevenwith theamount of moisture received throughout the winter and spring months, an Augustrainstillhasthefinalsay. Irrigated cottonlooks great; someplaces more than others.We’vebeenable to stay on topof the watering this year. Althoughthese temperatures this week might putthattothetest.Thecottonthathasdeveloped a good tap root is hanging in there. However,as previously mentioned,someofthecottonthathadadequate moisture early on never fully developed a deep tap rootandit’sstartingtoshow.Everydaythatpasseswithoutarain,drasticallylowersthechances of turning this crop around. Thisis unfortunate given the potential we hadcomingintothisseason.The Southwest is amixedbag this year, asitalwaysis.Italsorangesfromoneextremeto theother inmaturity,often in thesamecounty. Thehopehere is thatwith a littleluck we won’t get an early freeze which

couldgivethiscropthetimeitneedstofullymature.Thatandarain,ofcourse.Crop Outlook The latest USDA crop conditionsreport issued lastFriday is reflectiveoftheconditionsmentionedabove.ThepercentoftheUScropratedgoodtoexcellentdeclinedto54percentcompared to61percent lastweek. We’ve all seen crops eithermadeorlostinAugustandSeptemberdependingon the weather. Pictured below is theNOAA drought outlook for August. In theSoutheast, the Wiregrass area can expectlittleinthewayofreliefwhileremainingdry.In the Southwest, drought development islikely.Itwouldn’ttakemuchofadroughttohaveasignificant impactsincemostplantsin this region are shallow rooted due to early seasonrains.

Insect Management In latesummer,webecomemost concerned withstinkbugsandescapedbollworms.Stink bugs havebecome a routinepest usually requiring treatment in mid to late summer.Thebrownand southern green species are notorious feeders on young bollsresultinginreduced

yield and fiber quality. Monitor for thisinsect until the last harvestable bolls areover 25 days old. If economic thresholdsare exceeded recommended insecticidesinclude Bidrin, bifenthrin, or a pyrethroidwhich will provide 10 to 14 days residualcontrol. In recent years a new stink bugspecieshasbecomeratherprevalent,it’sthebrown marmorated stinkbug. This pest isusuallyfoundconcentratedalongtheborderrowsoffields.Thedifferenceinthisstinkbugspecies is its ability to damage bolls from

Choice Cotton Market Commentary 3

EVERY CROP YEAR IS UNIQUE.Your marketing plan should be, too.

CHOICECOT TON

thumbsizeallthewayuptothosecracking.Therefore,monitoringefforts for theBMSBshouldcontinueintoOctober.

Bollworm resistance to two gene Bt toxinsiseverincreasing.Fortheremainderof the season, I encourage you to scoutclosely for any escapes concentrating yourefforts where Bollgard 2, Twin Link, andWidestrikevarietiesareplanted.Significantresistance has not been detected to dateinBollgard3, Twin LinkPlus, orWidestrike3 varieties, giving us greater confidence intheireffectiveness.Theeconomicthresholdfor treatment is fourworms foundper100plants. Recommended insecticides include,Besiege or Prevathon providing up to twoweeksofresidualcontrol.Normally,aroundLaborDaybollwormescapesarenolongeraconcern.However,asDr.RonSmithsuggestswithsomuchlatecottoninthemixcontinuemonitoring for escapes as long as there are enough small squares on the plant to feed onedayoldlarvae.Aftercutoutwhensuchsquares are shed, the bollworm shouldbeofnoconcern. Keep inmindwith sucha wide range of plant maturity all insect managementdecisionsshouldbemadeonafieldbyfieldbasis.Mental Maps Prior to getting busy preparing forharvest,Iencourageyoutotakesometimeto make mental notes on what is going on in your fields, such as weed pressure, lowfertility,signsoffoliardisease,irregularstandcounts,etc.Indoingsoyoucanresearchforpossible causes and implement productionpracticesnextyeartopreventarecurrence.Determine Timing of Harvest Aids Experience has taught us there arebasicallythreewaystodetermineifacottonplant is mature enough to apply harvest aid materials. This is very important becauseapplying such products prematurely can result in reduced yields and lower fiberquality. Conversely, late applications canresult in harvest delays and increased incidenceofbollrot.Allthesemethodsare

accurate,butIwouldsuggestusingthemincombination to insure proper applicationtiming.

Percentopenbolls–When60percentofthebollsontheplanthaveopeneditsconsidered safe to apply defoliants.However, this year where it’s notuncommon to have different agesof cotton in the same field, I wouldrecommend using 75 percent open bolls to be safe. Uniformity in ageshouldbeyourguideinthissituation.

Nodesabovecrackedboll (NACB)–Thismethod is a littlemore scientific andmuchquickerandeasiertouse.Countthe number of nodes between theuppermost first position cracked bolland the uppermost first position bollyouaimtoharvest.Whenthisnumberreaches3to4NACBitissafetoapplyharvestaids.

Pocketknife technique – This is the oldtriedandtruemethodmostoftenused.Usingapocketknifecutacrosssectionofaboll.Whendoingsoaharvestablebollshouldhavelintthatstringsoutasyou cut, and the seed should have a darkenedseedcoatarounditsedges.

Untilnexttime,