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ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX A. Yuanta does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should
consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Taiwan Steel Group
The dark knight of steel rises
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Industry Update
Taiwan: Steel 10 Aug, 2017
Chun Yu (2012 TT); not rated
Market cap
Share price (2017/08/18)
FINI ownership
Net debt/equity
2016/1H17 EPS NT$0.95/0.34
1H17 BVPS NT$12.7
Quintain Steel (2017 TT); not rated
Market cap
Share price (2017/08/18)
FINI ownership
Net debt/equity
2016/1H17 EPS NT$0.57/0.55
1H17 BVPS NT$12.15
GMTC (5009 TT); not rated
Market cap
Share price (2017/08/18)
FINI ownership
Net debt/equity
2016/1H17 EPS NT$0.7/0.22
1H17 BVPS NT$19.54
OFCO (5011 TT); not rated
Market cap
Share price (2017/08/18)
FINI ownership
Net debt/equity
2016/1H17 EPS NT$0.72/-1.75
1H17 BVPS NT$12.11
TMP Corp. (6248 TT); not rated
Market cap
Share price (2017/08/18)
FINI ownership
Net debt/equity
2016/1H17 EPS NT$0.92/0.36
1H17 BVPS NT$11.53
Primary Analyst:
Leo Lee
+886 2 3518 7983 [email protected]
http://research.yuanta.com
Bloomberg code: YUTA
Taiwan: Steel 10 Aug, 2017 Page 2 of 14
Taiwan Steel Group – Past and the future
Overview
Taiwan Steel Group (TSG) currently owns shares of seven companies, including E-
Top Metal (non-public), E-Sheng Steel (non-public), Quintain Steel (2017 TT; NR),
TMP (6248 TT; NR), Chun Yu (2012 TT; NR), OFCO Industrial (5011 TT), and GMTC
(5009 TT). The companies’ respective position along the electric furnace supply
chain is shown in Figure 1. The members of TSG are experienced senior personnel
who have dedicated themselves for decades in the industry, focusing on optimizing
production procedure and marketing channels.
Figure 1: The supply chain of TSG
Source: Company data, Yuanta Investment Consulting
Completing the puzzle like a PE fund
Starts with E-Top & E-Sheng, the upstream electric furnace producers, TSG has
adopted several M&As in the past years. By accumulating shares and entering board
of directors, TSG now has integrated OFCO, TMP, and Chun Yu with management
right. TSG also forms strategic alliances with Quintain Steel and GMTC. Through
this positioning, TSG has gradually achieved a vertical integration other than China
Steel in Taiwan (which is known as a blast furnace producer).
Accumulating shares of current listing companies and entering board of directors is
the major strategy of TSG’s growth. The advantage against building its own
capacity/plant includes 1) less capital expenditures; 2) faster respond to the market
dynamics; and 3) gaining intangible value (eg. brand name, existing clients, and
channels) from the targets. The capital of the M&A activities are supported by the
stable cash flow from E-Top & E-Sheng.
Overall, TSG is able to optimize the production and marketing systems of two major
production lines— screws and reinforcing steel bars. The capacity of E-Top and E-
Sheng can be utilized appropriately and flexibly. In the meanwhile the midstream
(Quintain Steel) and downstream (Chun Yu & OFCO) producers are able to have
stable, cost-competitive sources of raw materials. According to our checks, E-Top’s
production costs of billet steel are ~10% lower than peers’ due to 1) faster turnover
to lower the inventory cost; 2) lower costs of scrap source (E-Top uses painted steel
and galvanized steel instead of steel bars); 3) higher CUR rate (~92% vs. 87% of
Taiwan: Steel 10 Aug, 2017 Page 3 of 14
peers). TMP was acquired by TSG and transformed into a sales channel of steel bars
in order to directly approach the construction market.
After completing the integration of plain carbon steel products, TSG aims to enter
the market of stainless steel, in the purpose of horizontally integrate the specialty
steel products. Since 2017, TSG targets Gloria Material Technology (GMTC, 5009
TT), which is the leader in Taiwan’s specialty steel industry. Not only GMTC can
provide stainless products, but also increase the quality of other products such as
screws. We believe this integration also help TSG to avoid the fluctuation of raw
material prices & lock the profit within the whole supply chain. When raw material is
in an up-cycle, profit stays in upstream producers, on the contrary, profit will flow
to downstream players when raw material step into down-cycle.
In our view, the Taiwanese companies were under pressure of losing
competitiveness due to the impact from China’s overcapacity. Once a successful
integration is formed, TSG might become a new challenger to the world sitting in
Taiwan, other than China Steel.
Figure 2: The stage of members within Taiwan Steel
Source: Company data, Yuanta Investment Consulting
Figure 3: The whole structure of Taiwan Steel Group
Source: Company data, Yuanta Investment Consulting
Taiwan: Steel 10 Aug, 2017 Page 4 of 14
Chun Yu (2012 TT) – positioned for the long-term earnings growth
Chun Yu was founded in 1965, specializing in producing downstream steel
products (screws, nuts, wires) with capacity of ~300k tons/year, Chun Yu also
provides machinery for producing screws. Chun Yu’s products are sold globally,
Asia is the major market (65% top-line), especially in Taiwan, China, and Indonesia.
After TSG enters Board of Directors in 2013, Chun Yu’s operating efficiency has
largely improved, benefits are reflected in the past profitability (Figure4). 1H17 EPS
of NT$0.39 (up 115% YoY) Along with improving profitability, dividend payout
become more available and stable (Figure 5). Chun Yu also adjusted their strategy,
such as 1) closing the plant in Anshan, Liaoning, which had made loss of
~NT$270mn since operated in 3Q11; 2) gradually entering the higher value-added
auto market from the original construction application, catching up peers like
Sanshing (5007 TT; NR) and QST Intl (8349 TT; NR). Mgmt indicates that 2H17 top-
line & bottom-line should remain a mid-single-digit growth given the steady
operation condition. As such, we expect 2017F EPS is likely to stay at ~NT$1 level.
Looking forward, Chun Yu’s Dongguan plant has made strategy alliance with SGIS
Songshan (000717 CH;NR), blast furnace producer within Baowu Steel Group. The
benefits include 1) 10% costs saving given nearer distance (lower freight costs) and
cheaper feedstock and 2) expanding sales revenue as SGIS also planned to expand
capacity. Mgmt expects the new screw capacity (>30% increase vs. current
Dongguan capacity) to be ready by the end of 2017, 2018F should be a year of top
& bottom-line growth.
Figure 4: Profitability is improving year by year Figure 5: Dividend payout becomes favorable
Source: Company data, Yuanta Source: Company data, Yuanta
Figure 6: Chun Yu’s product mix in 2016 Figure 7: GM to catch up with auto screw players?
Source: Company data, Yuanta Source: Company data, Yuanta
Taiwan: Steel 10 Aug, 2017 Page 5 of 14
Quintain Steel (2017 TT) – positioned for the long-term earnings growth
Quintain was founded in 1973. As a mid-stream steel producer, Quintain
manufactures wires, rods and galvanized rods, these products are major materials
for screw making companies. Located in Tainan, Quintain owns
wire/rod/galvanized rod capacity of 270k/90k/40k tons/year, respectively. Most of
its products are provided for domestic companies and has a 7.3% market share of
its wire products in Taiwan.
Quintain has made strategy alliance with TSG in 2016, through the alliance,
Quintain is able to get support from the upstream electric furnace producers (it
used to import billets from Russia & China, accounting for 50% of feedstock). TSG is
able to provide cheaper feedstock to Quintain through E-Top, afterwards Quitain
can provide wires & rods for Chun Yu & OFCO’s screw products, forming an
vertically integrated supply chain. Thanks to the cheaper feedstock, Quintain’s
1H17 EPS of NT$0.55 (up 64% YoY) was close to the 2016’s NT$0.57, which turns
profitable and able to pay cash dividend after a 4-year no-pay. Looking forward,
Quintain is likely to benefit from the increasing steel spot price in China, driven by
the hike of raw material costs in 3Q17F. Furthermore, SGIS can also provide billets
from blast furnace (which is considered higher quality than electric furnace) to
Quintain, once SGIS & Chun Yu’s alliance is stabilized. As such, we are positive
toward Quintain’s 2H17F earnings outlook, 2017F EPS is likely a NT$0.8-0.9 level.
In addition, the company plans to invest NT$958mn in order to expand screw
capacity of 36k tons/year. Mgmt expects the new capacity to enter mass production
within two years.
Figure 8: Profitability is improving year by year Figure 9: Cash dividend was paid in 2016
Source: Company data, Yuanta Source: Company data, Yuanta
Figure 10: Quintain’s product mix in 2016 Figure 11: Quintain’s capex plan
Product Capacity
(k tons/year) Capex
(NT$mn) Note
Screw 36k 958
First time entering downstream screw market, completed in 2019F
Wire & Rod 24k 660 Debottlenecking the current capacity, completed in 2019F
Source: Company data, Yuanta Source: Company data, Yuanta
Taiwan: Steel 10 Aug, 2017 Page 6 of 14
GMTC (5009 TT) – The last puzzle of a complete product mix
Gloria Material Corporation (GMTC) was founded in 1993, specialized in stainless steel
bars production. In terms of production process, GMTC’s functional stainless steel can
be mainly divided into VAR/VIM/ESR, which is applied in aerospace/oil & gas/energy
industry, respectively. The above products require strict certification from the clients.
Gloria owns electric furnace stainless steel capacity of 12k tons/year and plays as
world's top 20 alloy steel bar producer.
Despite GMTC owns superior technology/quality of stainless steel in Taiwan, the
earnings performance remained lackluster in recent years (Figure 12), given 1) the low
CUR of current capacity (e.g. VIM is running at only 30-40% CUR currently due to slow
demand from oil & gas); and 2) GM is highly correlated with nickel price (nickel accounts
for ~70% of total costs, Figure13), which was in a down-cycle during 2014-16. 1H17 EPS
of NT$0.22 was up 2.6% YoY, despite op profits increased 27% YoY, the company was
impacted by heavy FX losses in 1Q17 and the downtrend of nickel price in 2Q17.
Looking forward in 2H17F, Despite GMTC’s book-to-bill ratio maintain flat at ~1, nickel
prices return to an upward trend (up 11% QTD) in 3Q17F, 2H17F GM is expected to
rebound from 14% level in 2Q17 (nickel was down 6% during the quarter). As such, we
expect 2017F EPS is likely to see NT$0.7-0.8, a single-digit YoY growth.
TSG has accumulated GMTC’s shares since 2017, with >20% of shareholding, TSG is able
to enter GMTC’s Board of Director and obtain four of nine members. However, TSG does
not replace the current chairman and the mgmt. team, instead, TSG is hoping to improve
the quality of current product mix through GMTC’s advanced technology. On the other
hand, TSG can provide advices and resources for GMTC in order to improve their
marketing & production efficiency, we consider this a win-win situation once the
collaboration comes to a steady state.
Figure 12: GMTC’s profitability is not that decent Figure 13: GM is highly correlated with nickel prices
Source: Company data, Yuanta Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Yuanta
Figure 14: GMTC’s sales breakdown Figure 15: Certification is the major intangible asset
Product/Process Application Sales % GM
Vacuum Arc Remelting (VAR) Aerospace 23-25 30%
Vacuum Induction Melting (VIM) Oil & Gas 18-20 15-20%
Electro Slag Remelting (ESR) Energy 8-10 5-10%
Source: Company data, Yuanta Source: Company data, Yuanta
Taiwan: Steel 10 Aug, 2017 Page 7 of 14
OFCO (5011 TT) – Needs transition to get rid of the headwind
Founded in 1984, OFCO is a main supplier of construction-use hex and socket bolts in
Taiwan. Their factories are located in Tainan and Kaohsiung City, with capacity of
36.5k tons/year. OFCO has focused on export market, especially in Europe (>60% of
top-line).
OFCO was acquired by TSG in 2013, and the profitability was benefited by EU’s
anti-dumping tax rate of 74.1% against China’s screw export during 2009-16
(Figure 16). However, the anti-dumping measure was revoked in 1Q16, which
brought back the price competition from China. As such, OFCO was negatively
impacted by the declining ASP trend and the unfavorable FX rate, posted a negative
GM and LPS of NT$1.75 in 1H17.
To address the current headwind, mgmt. plans to 1) improve the product mix by
selling more hex socket bolts than hexagon bolts (Former ASP is ~10% higher than
the latter), which were dominated by the Chinese players. After the improvement of
product mix, ASP has rebounded back by ~20% to >NT$40/kg level QTD from 33-
34 in 1H17; 2) switch the feedstock supplier to E-Top from Dragon Steel, the wire
costs should be 10-15% cheaper than before, mgmt. indicates the switch will be
done in 4Q17F; 3) expand the market in US to lower the negative impact from EU
market through Chun Yu’s sales channel in US. By doing so, we expect OFCO’s
2H17F bottom-line to breakeven or turn slightly profitable.
Figure 16: Profitability was impacted by unfavorable
FX & China price competition
Figure 17: Stable dividend payout history
Source: Company data, Yuanta Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Yuanta
Figure 18: OFCO’s ASP vs. EU’s fastener import from
China
Figure 19: OFCO needs to expand the market share
other than EU to diversify the risk
Source: Company data, Fastener World, Yuanta Source: Company data, Yuanta
Taiwan: Steel 10 Aug, 2017 Page 8 of 14
TMP (6248 TT) –
Founded in 1984, TMP was previously manufacturing electrical products such as
transformers, coils and inductors, but making loss for years. After TSG acquired
TMP in 2013, the company has been reconstructed as a role of rebar sales channel,
directly approaching to the end-user market in domestic construction industry.
After the reconstruction, TMP becomes the sales channel of E-Top and E-Sheng’s
rebar, the company has turned stably profitable since 2014-1H17 (Figure 20), cash
dividend was also paid in 2015-16 (Figure 21). 1H17 EPS of NT$0.36 was down by
64% YoY given slower domestic demand from housing market & infrastructure.
Mgmt guided for a better 2H17 earnings outlook due to the rebar price hike in
3Q17F and the upcoming seasonal demand in 4Q17F. Given the 2017F shipment
might decline by 15-20% to ~110k tons (vs. ~137k tons) but a likely GM expansion
in 2H17F, we expect 2017F EPS to moderately decline YoY to ~NT$0.7-0.8.
Figure 20: Profitability improves after reconstruction Figure 21: Dividend payout becomes favorable
Source: Company data, Yuanta Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Yuanta
Taiwan: Steel 10 Aug, 2017 Page 9 of 14
Long steel industry overview
Other than flat steel products (which are mainly produced by blast furnace), the
long steel products are made from scrap steel (mainly produced by electric furnace).
In terms of the output of hot-rolled steel bars & rods in Taiwan in 2015, reinforcing
steel bars (rebars)/wire rods/section steel/steel bars accounts for
56%/26%/14%/3.5%, respectively.
In perspective of rebar, the most general bar steel products, the supply/demand is
quite balanced in Taiwan. During 2014-16, the demand for rebar declined at a
CAGR of -12% (Figure 4), mainly due to the lackluster housing market (Figure 5).
Figure 22: The supply/demand of rebar in Taiwan
Source: Taiwan Steel & Iron Industries Association, Yuanta Investment Consulting
Figure 23: Total floor area of construction in Taiwan
Source: Construction & Planning Agency, Yuanta Investment Consulting
Taiwan: Steel 10 Aug, 2017 Page 10 of 14
Looking forward after 2018F, the domestic demand for rebars might be stimulated
by the Forward-looking Infrastructure Development Program, proposed by the
ruling party DPP, the budget for the first stage(2017/8-2018/9) infrastructure will
be ~NT$109bn, we expect ~50% (railways & urban construction) will be needing
more rebars. As such, we believe the demand in 2017-18F for rebars will bottom
out from the low base in 2016.
Figure 24: Details of DPP’s infrastructure plan in the first stage (2017/8-2018/9)
DPP's Infrastructure plan Investments Budget (NT$mn)
First stage budget planning Railways 17,069
Digital facilities 16,200
Green environment 8,100
Occupational training 4,200
Kid-friendly Spaces 2,000
Food safety 300
Water pipelines and facilities 25,700
Urban construction 35,400
Total
108,969
Source: Yuanta Investment Consulting
Rebar profits to expand from lower scrap steel costs
In order to further achieve supply-side reform, China gov’t announced to eliminate
the ‘low-grade steel’, which is made through medium-frequency induction furnaces.
The low-grade steel products are considered highly-polluting and poor-quality.
The unofficially counted annual capacity of low-grade steel is ~100mn tons (around
8% of official crude steel capacity in China). In 1H17, China gov’t commanded all
the unqualified low-grade steel plants to stop operation by mid-2017. Given the
gradual shutdown of the unqualified medium-frequency induction furnace, we
expect this reform should lead to 1) the price hike of domestic rebar in China, given
the exit of low-end products; and 2) declining domestic demand for scrap in China.
We observed that the China scrap export largely increase to 297k tons in 2Q17 vs.
0.72k tons in 1Q17 (Figure 8), the spillover effect is also reflected in Taiwan’s scrap
import from China (Figure 9). We expect the steel scrap from China to be cheaper
than the original sources from Japan or the US.
Figure 25: China’s scrap export Figure 26: Taiwan’s scrap import from China
Source: Wind, Yuanta Investment Consulting Source: Bureau of Foreign Trade, Yuanta
Taiwan: Steel 10 Aug, 2017 Page 11 of 14
Based on the above reasons, we expect rebar’s spread over steel to expand in
2H17F, which is already happening (Figure 10) QTD. As such, we believe the electric
furnace producers such as Feng Hsin (2015 TT; NR), Tong Ho (2006 TT; NR), and E-
Top from TSG should benefit from this trend. As for E-Top, its strong profitability is
further assured and become more capable of providing sufficient capital for M&A
purposes.
Figure 27: Price/spread trend of rebar & scrap steel in Taiwan
Source: Wind, Yuanta Investment Consulting
Taiwan: Steel 10 Aug, 2017 Page 12 of 14
Appendix A: Important Disclosures
Analyst Certification
Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to
each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal
views about those securities or issuers; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related
to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.
Current distribution of Yuanta ratings
Rating # of stocks %
Buy 155 34%
HOLD-OPF 91 20%
HOLD-UPF 15 3%
Sell 5 1%
Under Review 186 41%
Restricted 3 1%
Total: 455 100%
Source: Yuanta Investment Consulting August 18, 2014
Ratings Definitions
BUY: We have a positive outlook on the stock based on our expected absolute or relative return over the investment period. Our
thesis is based on our analysis of the company’s outlook, financial performance, catalysts, valuation and risk profile. We
recommend investors add to their position.
HOLD-Outperform: In our view, the stock’s fundamentals are relatively more attractive than peers at the current price. Our thesis
is based on our analysis of the company’s outlook, financial performance, catalysts, valuation and risk profile.
HOLD-Underperform: In our view, the stock’s fundamentals are relatively less attractive than peers at the current price. Our thesis
is based on our analysis of the company’s outlook, financial performance, catalysts, valuation and risk profile.
SELL: We have a negative outlook on the stock based on our expected absolute or relative return over the investment period. Our
thesis is based on our analysis of the company’s outlook, financial performance, catalysts, valuation and risk profile. We
recommend investors reduce their position.
Under Review: We actively follow the company, although our estimates, rating and target price are under review.
Restricted: The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or Yuanta
policies.
Note: Yuanta research coverage with a Target Price is based on an investment period of 12 months. Greater China Discovery
Series coverage does not have a formal 12 month Target Price and the recommendation is based on an investment period
specified by the analyst in the report.
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This report provides general information only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or
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Taiwan: Steel 10 Aug, 2017 Page 13 of 14
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