taking a closer look: housing myths & truthsfinance, insurance, real estate, and rental and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Taking a Closer Look: Housing Myths & Truths
HOME’s 18th Annual Ventura County Housing Conference
October 22, 2019
C H A N N E LI S L A N D S
GLOBAL ECONOMICRE SEARCH
IN STITUTE FOR
California StateUniversity
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Support
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Housing Myths & Truths
1 Ventura County is an expensive place to live in
2 Ventura County does not have the right jobs to afford housingin Ventura County
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Outline
1 Ventura County Currently
2 Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors
3 Analysis of Income and Home Ownership
4 Conclusion
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Outline
1 Ventura County Currently
2 Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors
3 Analysis of Income and Home Ownership
4 Conclusion
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Age and Gender Composition, 2017, Ventura County
Female
Male
0 25 50 75Age
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Education Level of the Population, 2005 and 2017,Ventura County
N/A or no schooling
Nursery school to grade 4
Grade 5, 6, 7, or 8
Grade 9
Grade 10
Grade 11
Grade 12
1 year of college
2 years of college
4 years of college
5+ years of college
0 50,000 100,000 150,000
2017
2005
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Labor Force Participation and Unemployment, VenturaCounty
75.5
76.0
76.5
77.0
77.5
78.0
78.5
Labo
r F
orce
P
artic
ipat
ion
(%)
4
6
8
10
2008 2012 2016
Une
mpl
oym
ent
Rat
e (%
)
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Industry Breakdown of Employed Population, 2017,Ventura County
●
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Mining
Active Duty Military
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information and Communications
Wholesale Trade
Public Administration
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing andHunting
Other Services (Except PublicAdministration)
Construction
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, andRental and Leasing
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation,Accommodations, and Food Services
Professional, Scientific, Management,Administrative, and Waste Management
Services
Educational, Health and Social Services
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
●
●
●●
$60,000
$90,000
$120,000
$150,000
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Industry Breakdown of Employed Population, 2017,Ventura County
●
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Education, Health and Social Services
Mining
Active Duty Military
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information and Communications
Wholesale Trade
Public Administration
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing andHunting
Other Services (Except PublicAdministration)
Construction
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, andRental and Leasing
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation,Accommodations, and Food Services
Professional, Scientific, Management,Administrative, and Waste Management
Services
Educational, Health and Social Services
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
●
●
●●
$60,000
$90,000
$120,000
$150,000
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Industry Breakdown of Employed Population, 2017,Ventura County
●
●
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●
●
●
●
●
●
●
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●
●
●
●
●
Education, Health and Social Services
Information and
Communications
Mining
Active Duty Military
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information and Communications
Wholesale Trade
Public Administration
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing andHunting
Other Services (Except PublicAdministration)
Construction
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, andRental and Leasing
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation,Accommodations, and Food Services
Professional, Scientific, Management,Administrative, and Waste Management
Services
Educational, Health and Social Services
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
●
●
●●
$60,000
$90,000
$120,000
$150,000
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Comparison of County Residents Employment to CountyIndustry Jobs, 2017, Ventura County
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●
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●
●
●
●
●
●
Mining
Active Duty Military
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information and Communications
Wholesale Trade
Public Administration
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing andHunting
Other Services (Except PublicAdministration)
Construction
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, andRental and Leasing
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation,Accommodations, and Food Services
Professional, Scientific, Management,Administrative, and Waste Management
Services
Educational, Health and Social Services
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
●
●
Share of Employment of County Residents
Share of Jobs in the County
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Nominal and Real Incomes, Ventura County
$65,000
$70,000
$75,000
$80,000
$85,000
2007 2010 2013 2016
Inco
me/
Rea
l Inc
ome
Median household income (2017 dollars)
Median household income (nominal)
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Population and Housing Growth in Ventura County
100
101
102
103
104
105
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Population index
Housing index
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Average Household Size Trends, Ventura County
2.75
2.85
2.95
3.05
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Ave
rage
hou
seho
ld s
ize
All residents Owners Renters
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Home Ownership in Ventura County
62
64
66
68
Hom
eow
ners
hip
rate
s (%
)
−2−1
012
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Cha
nge
(%)
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Home Price and Rent Trends, Ventura County
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Med
ian
Sal
es P
rice
$2,000
$2,250
$2,500
$2,750
$3,000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Med
ian
Ren
tal P
rice
All
Hom
es
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Home Price and Rent Trends, Ventura County
100
120
140
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Indi
ces Price Index
Rent Index
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Housing Burden
A household is considered to be cost-burdened ifspending more than 30 percent of their income forhousing costs
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Housing Burden, 2017, Ventura County
25.0%
50.0%
75.0%
2005 2010 2015
Sha
re o
f hou
seho
lds
burd
ened
Quartile 1 2 3 4
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Housing Burden, 2017, Ventura County
Renters Owners
2005 2010 2015 2005 2010 2015
0.0%
25.0%
50.0%
75.0%
Sha
re o
f hou
seho
lds
burd
ened
Quartile 1 2 3 4
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Current Ventura County Conditions
• Ventura County has been experiencing historically lowunemployment levels and residents are largely working withinthe county
• Housing stock in Ventura County has not kept up withpopulation growth and we now see lower home ownershiprates and increased household sizes for renters
• With stagnant real incomes and increased home and rentalprices, a large share of Ventura County residents arehousing-burdened
• Burdens have increased for lower half of the incomedistribution
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Outline
1 Ventura County Currently
2 Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors
3 Analysis of Income and Home Ownership
4 Conclusion
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Comparison of Age Trends
35
36
37
38
2005 2010 2015
Ave
rage
Age
California (excluding Ventura) Ventura County
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Comparison of Age Trends
34
35
36
37
38
2005 2010 2015
Ave
rage
Age
Los Angeles County
San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties
Ventura County
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Comparison of Education Levels
• Education levels in Ventura County are comparable to Statelevels and that of our neighboring counties
• All areas characterized by a majority of people holding highschool diplomas or higher education
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Comparison of Unemployment Rates
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
(%)
California excluding Ventura
Los Angeles County
San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties
Ventura County
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Comparison of Commute Times, 2017
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Comparison of Household Sizes
Owners
Renters
2005 2010 2015
2.62.72.82.93.03.1
2.62.72.82.93.03.1
Ave
rage
hou
seho
ld s
ize
California (excluding Ventura) Ventura County
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Comparison of Household Sizes
Owners
Renters
2005 2010 2015
2.62.83.0
2.62.83.0
Ave
rage
hou
seho
ld s
ize
Los Angeles County
San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties
Ventura County
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Comparison of 2017 Home Ownership Rates
2005 2017
0
20
40
60
Hom
eow
ners
hip
rate
s (%
)
California excluding Ventura
Los Angeles County
San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties
Ventura County
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Comparison of Median Sales Prices
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Med
ian
Sal
e P
rice
California
Ventura County
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Comparison of Median Sales Prices
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Med
ian
Sal
e P
rice
Los Angeles County
San Luis Obispo County
Santa Barbara County
Ventura County
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Comparison of Median Sales Prices
$510,000
$540,000
$570,000
$600,000
2017 2018 2019
Med
ian
Sal
e P
rice
Los Angeles County
San Luis Obispo County
Santa Barbara County
Ventura County
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Comparison of Median Rents
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Med
ian
Ren
tal P
rice
California
Ventura County
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Comparison of Median Rents
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Med
ian
Ren
tal P
rice
Los Angeles County
San Luis Obispo County
Santa Barbara County
Ventura County
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Comparison of Housing Burdens, 2017
Third Income Quartile Fourth Income Quartile
Bottom Income Quartile Second Income Quartile
California(excludingVentura)
LosAngelesCounty
San LuisObispo+ SantaBarbaraCounties
VenturaCounty
California(excludingVentura)
LosAngelesCounty
San LuisObispo+ SantaBarbaraCounties
VenturaCounty
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Sha
re o
f Hou
seho
lds
Bur
dene
d
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Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors
• No major differences in age, education, employment orcommute times
• Ventura County has higher home ownership rates than all theareas we compared to
• Housing burdens for Ventura County are comparable tohousing burdens in the state and of our neighbors
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Outline
1 Ventura County Currently
2 Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors
3 Analysis of Income and Home Ownership
4 Conclusion
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Home Ownership and Income
●
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●
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●●
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●
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●
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●
●
●
●
●
●●
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
$60,000 $70,000 $80,000Real Household Income (2017 Dollars)
Hom
eonw
ersh
ip R
ates
●
●
●
●
Los Angeles County
Ventura County
San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties
California excluding Ventura
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Home Ownership and Income
●
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●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
$60,000 $70,000 $80,000Real Household Income (2017 Dollars)
Hom
eonw
ersh
ip R
ates
●
●
●
●
Los Angeles County
Ventura County
San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties
California excluding Ventura
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Required Median Household Income to Achieve Ventura’sHome Ownership Rates
●
●
●
●
●
●California excluding Ventura
Los Angeles County
San Luis Obispo + SantaBarbara Counties
$65,000 $70,000 $75,000 $80,000 $85,000 $90,000
● ●Current Required
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Wages per Job Comparison
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
2005 2010 2015
Qua
rter
Wag
es p
er J
ob (
$)
California excluding Ventura
Ventura County
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Becoming More Like Santa Barbara, Less Like Los Angeles
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
2005 2010 2015
Qua
rter
Wag
es p
er J
ob (
$)
Los Angeles County
Santa Barbara County
Ventura County
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Top and Bottom Employment Sectors by Growth2004-2018
$48K
$38K
$22K
$75K$91K$70K
90
120
150
180
2004 2008 2012 2016
Em
ploy
men
t ind
ex (
2004
= 1
00)
Health care and social assistance
Educational services
Accommodation and food services
Information
Finance and insurance
Manufacturing
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Ventura County’s Relatively High Home Ownership Rates
• Relative to its neighbors, Ventura County has the highesthome ownership rates
• Higher household incomes than in neighboring areas mayexplain differences in home ownership rates
• Employment income alone becoming increasingly insufficientto afford housing in Ventura County
• Uncertain whether current relative good conditions aresustainable given our employment trajectory
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Outline
1 Ventura County Currently
2 Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors
3 Analysis of Income and Home Ownership
4 Conclusion
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Housing Myths & Truths
1 Ventura County is an expensive place to live in
• As in much of the state, people make sacrifices to live inbeautiful Ventura County
• Evidence suggests that relative to our neighbors and the stateof California we are actually doing okay
2 Ventura County does not have the right jobs to afford housingin Ventura County
• Currently the employment of our residents seems to match thejobs available in the county
• Being able to afford living in Ventura County on employmentwages alone seems increasingly difficult
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Taking a Closer Look: Housing Myths & Truths
HOME’s 18th Annual Ventura County Housing Conference
October 22, 2019
C H A N N E LI S L A N D S
GLOBAL ECONOMICRE SEARCH
IN STITUTE FOR
California StateUniversity