taking fiscal sustainability to the next level resiliency and the … · and a civilization, able...
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Taking Fiscal Sustainability to the Next Level – Fiscal Resiliency and the High
Performance Organization Western Canada Finance Officers Association
Joe Casey, Deputy County ManagerHenrico County, Virginia USA
October 9, 2014
County of Henrico, Virginia Proud of our progress; excited about our future.
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Past – Present - Future
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OverviewSustainability Evolving to ResiliencyGFOA Resiliency Task Force Resiliency Benefitso High performance organizationo Economic developmento Quality of life
We’re the Federal Govt and We’re Here to “Help”100 Resilient Cities Project
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Great Moments in Resiliency
ustainability Evolving to Resiliency
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Great Moments in Non‐Resiliency
“The odds of a meltdown are one in
10,000 years”
Vitali Sklyarov, minster of power, two months before the Chernobyl
accident
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Sustainable Community
(stable, maintaining)
-2001 GFOA Conf
esilientmmunityasticity,
agility)
Go from Living to Loving Life
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spire for Long‐term Margin “Resources” > NeedsFiscally Sustainable Fiscally Resilient
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4
Needs Resources Available
Lo wRisk
0
1
2
3
4
5
Yr 1 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30
Needs Resources Availablesources = Strong infrastructure, fund reserves, pro‐active s, speed to address with mindful elected officials, quality‐
Less
Evolve
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Sustainability = LandingResiliency = Launching
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y Ingredient to “Resources” and Launching is Citizen’s Trust
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Defined via Miriam Webster’s
Sustainability ResiliencyAble to be used without being completely used upMethods that do not completely use up or destroy resourcesAble to last or continue for a long time
• Ability to become healthy or successful again after something bad happens
• Ability to return to original shape after being pulled, stretchedor pressed
Evolve
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siliency: Don’t Forget ow our itizens ew New Words
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“As we look ahead, we need to strive for an environment, and a civilization, able to handle unexpected changes without threatening to collapse. Such a world would be more than simply sustainable; it would be regenerative and diverse, relying on the capacity not only to absorb shocks like the popped housing bubble or rising sea levels, but to evolve with them. In a word, it would be resilient.”‐ James Cascio
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Applications from this
Human Crisis Intervention Program can apply to resilient
communities
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Sometimes a Cartoon Can Teach Better
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Local Govt Sustainability – Resiliency Comparisonustainability - Good
verallPlans 5 yearsPreparedness for common threats
calReserves and low debtConservative estimates1- 5 year plansPriority service focus
Resiliency - Great• Overall
o Plans 50 years = LT visiono Mitigates risk, positions
for high-continuous QOL
• Fiscalo Connection to future
needs >25 yearso Flexible to meet
changing timeso Continuum of service
d i i
Evolve
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Great Moments
in Resiliency
GFOA Resiliency Task Force
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Great Moments in Non‐Resiliency
“Who the hell wants to hear actor’s talk”
Harry Warner, Warner
Brothers, 1927
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GFOA “White Paper”
• Diversity• Redundancy• Decentralization• Transparency• Collaboration• Fail Gracefully• Flexibility• Foresight• Redundancy
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GFOA Resiliency Goal
Decline Distress Recovery Financial HealthStabilization
Financial Resiliency
Financial SustainabilityRelapseFiscal First Aid
Longer-Term Therapies
Long-Term Financial Planning
Political Management
Bankruptcy, Receivership
Monitor, Manage, and Adjust Treatment
Bridging TransformReform
Time
Stages of Financial Recovery
Initial Diagnosis
Detailed Diagnosis
1
2 Recognition
Generic Treatments3
4
5
6
Recovery Plan7
8
9
0
11
12
13
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Task Force Readings –Heath Brothers
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Book Report in a Slidee innovative
Customer service agent knows best how to serve customer eep it simple in finding the core of the idea
“The single most important thing that we must do tomorrow is _”Weed out superfluous and tangential elementsForced prioritization (What’s the “lead” of the story)
ore Shining ScorecardSimple (simple = core + compact), unexpected, concrete, credible, emotional, story
eing DecisiveDoing This AND ThatTransition from “Should I do xyz or not” to “What’s the best way to improve upon abc”Overcoming confirmation biasOverconfidence – people think they know more than they do about the future
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ook’s Decision‐making Process Point ‐ Counterpoint
You encounter a choiceo But narrow framing makes you miss options
You analyze your optionso But the confirmation bias leads you to gather
self-serving informationYou make a choiceo But short-term emotion will often tempt you to
make the wrong oneThen you live with ito But you’ll often be overconfident about how the
future will unfold
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FOA Task Force ThemesAcceptingo Reflective governments accept uncertainty and
change as they learn from past experiences and evolve
Organizingo Robust and redundanto Flexible and resourcefulo Inclusive and integrated
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Organizing Themes –Robust and Redundant
obusto Well-conceived, designed and implemented to
withstand adverse impacts o Anticipates potential failures with counter measureso Avoids over-reliance on a single assetedundanto Spare capacity purposely created to
accommodate disruption and demando Diversity via multiple ways to achieve a given need
or fulfill a particular functiono Intentional, cost-effective, efficient and prioritized
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Organizing Theme –Flexible and Resourceful
exibilityo Evolve in response to changing circumstanceso Anticipate the need to change for an orderly
change o Understand all implications of decisionsesourcefulnesso Rapidly find different ways to achieve goals o When the shock or stress abates, builds back in a
way that is best adapted to its new circumstanceso Restore functionality of critical systems, potentially
under severely constrained conditions
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Organizing Theme –Inclusive and Integratednclusiveo Emphasizes broad perspective on what constitutes
“financial health” o Mitigates the stresses faced by one sector in isolationo Sense of shared ownership to build resiliencentegratedo Alignment with agencies for consistent decision-makingo Resource utilization supportive to a common outcomeo Shared vision between agencies defining resiliencyo Exchange of information between agencies enables
them to function collectively and respond rapidly
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Can You Answer “Yes?”(Do you want to?)
Are you ready for change?Can you and everyone work together?Can you continue to serve the community, no matter what stress lies ahead?Is your community enduring?Are you ready for what comes next and can you stay ready?
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rst Steps – What Can You Do in Three Slides (1/3)?
Incorporate opportunity costs into financial decisionsFind “bright spots” in your own organizationo Encourage experiments/creativity, but also
document those lessons“Playlist” for financial decision-makingo Develop guidelines of options to consider (via
idea generation)Taking the outside looking inside viewo When considering a decision, consider what
another person would do (go out to look in)
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rst Steps – What Can You Do in Three Slides (2/3)?
rediction intervalso Show uncertainty in the forecast with range of
outcomesxperiments and tripwireso Test a decision on a provisional basis before
committing w/ early warning of impending problemre-mortemo Meeting that takes place before the decision has
been put into effect to imagine complete disaster
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rst Steps – What Can You Do in Three Slides (3/3)?
Open and accurate data (good base data)o Providing transparency in information0-10-10 analysiso Decision thoughts in 10 days-10 months-10 yearsdentify core prioritieso Expressing values can help counteract short-term
emotions by highlighting what is truly importantBuilding relationships o Invest time in relationships with relevant individuals
before an issue reaches “crisis”
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ICMA Practices -silient Themes for ManagersAdd value to the quality of public policy and produce esults that matter to their communities
Take a long-term and community-wide perspectiveCommit themselves to ethical practices in the service of public valuesHelp build community and support demographic and community valuesPromote equitable, fair outcomes and processesDevelop and sustain organizational excellence and promote innovation
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acilitatorsof vision
communitybuilders
designers
voice inpolicy
ethics +values
reformers +f d
ICMA, Resilient Managers Are…
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CMA – Resiliency Resource
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Great Moments in Resiliency
Resiliency Benefits ‐ HPO
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Great Moments in Non‐Resiliency
don’t like your boys’ sound. Groups are out; four-e groups with guitars, particularly finished”
ca Records letter to Beatles Manager Brian Epstein in in not wanting to give the Beatles a contract
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Difference: Efficiency and effectivenessOutput measures (efficiency) mostly time and costOutcome measures (effectiveness) mostly “quality”o Surveys are key component to evaluate
High PerformanceNeeds Measures and Surveys
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Source for HPO ‐Baldrige
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Hard Questions, Harder Answers?
What are your KEY organizational ERFORMANCE MEASURES, including KEY short-erm and longer-term financial MEASURES? ow frequently are these MEASURES etermined? ow do you use these data and information to
upport organizational decision making and NNOVATION?ow do you keep your PERFORMANCE
measurement system current with business eeds and directions?
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aldrige Criteria for Performance Excellence
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Tough ?: Sustainable Agree, Resilient Strongly Agree
rganizational: Are you making progress?eadership: Leaders use org’s values to guide us?rategic Planning: My org encourages new ideas?ustomers: I ask my customers what they need?easurement: I know how to measure work quality?orkforce: The people I work with are a team?ocess: I can get everything I need to do my job?
esults: My org helps me help my community?
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ategic Focus Should be on Macro, Not MicroMacro: >5000 ft Micro: 1 ft
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Leadership – SustainabilityResiliency further moves green line up and over)
Bottom‐line – “is it
sustainable”
Sustainable success –
“inspire and empower”
“Going out of business”
Good for morale, but can you keep
it going
rformance‐Business Strategy Focus
“Driving results”
Purposeful Culture Focus “Inspiring commitment
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Great Moments
in Resiliency
Resiliency Benefits – Econ Dev
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Great Moments in Non‐Resiliency
“What use could that company make of an electrical toy?”
William Ortin, president of Western Union Telegraph, in 1876, rejecting an
opportunity to purchase Alexander Graham Bell’s patent
on the telephone
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Economic Development Competitive Common Traits
Expanding existing, recruiting new businessMaximize P3 for best ROI/acre strategieso Micro: Property-specifico Macro: Larger area or regiono Other QOL factors (higher education, safety)
Reinvestment of incremental revenueNational or Province constraints to overcome in competing with othersSimple goals: Expand tax base, economic stability, job retention and job creation
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ilience in Balancing Residential Impact with Business Investment
Balanced strategies require focus on commercial component of tax baseo Require less services, result in “net surplus” to
offset “net deficit” of householdo Each household creates a local govt demand
If no proportional addition of resource provided, added demand results in lower level of serviceo Schools, roads, parks and libraries more
“crowded” or public safety more constrained
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Economic Development Change in School of Thought
Old: “Economic development” and “Jobs”New: “Return on investment is < 4 years, improves jobs: labor force ratio to 1:1 goal, and fosters partnerships”
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ROI Illustration of Incentives
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr10
Tax IncentiveTax Received
5 Years total incentive $24; ROI within 4 years
Resilience: Planned reinvestment of
future margin above service need into
“resource” for QOL and other goals
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Great Moments in Resiliency
Resiliency Benefits – Quality of Life
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Great Moments in Non‐Resiliency
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jobs environment safety
ducation healthcare infrastructure
OL Generally Accepted Attributes
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QOL = Risk Mitigation via High to Moderate to Low
Risk= Threat x Vulnerability x Consequences
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re the Federal Govt and We’re Here to “Help”
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National Preparedness Goal – Five Mission Areas
revention: Preventing a threatened or an actual actrotection: Protecting people and assets against hazards that lows our interests, aspirations, and way of life to thrive
Mitigation: Mitigating the loss of life and propertyesponse: Responding quickly to save lives and meet needsecovery: Timely restoration of infrastructure, housing and
conomy, as well as health, social, cultural and environment
Three Core Capabilities Span All Mission Areas• Planning
• Public Information and Warning• Operational Coordination
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Livable Communities ActDied in Committee 2009, 2011)Subtitle: “Creating Better And More Affordable Places To Live, Work And Raise Families”“With sustainable development, our communities will cut traffic congestion; reduce greenhouse gas emissions and gasoline consumption; protect rural areas and green spaces; revitalize existing Main Streets and urban centers; and create more affordable housing”Incentives to plan for livable communitiesFunding to implement sustainable development projectsPartnering with local communitiesInteragency Council on Sustainable CommunitiesCreates Office of Sustainable Housing And Communities
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Livable Communities ‐Before You Celebrate……
Proponents OpponentsCoordinate and integrate housing, transportation, econ dev, energy and environmental needs$4 billion in grants for sustainable projects and livable communitiesBreak down current silos and integrate into a new inclusive planning process
• Federal intrusion and anti-Agenda 21 advocateso Another Federal office
created• Metro home prices higher• Metro transit costs higher
= greater environmental impact
• Metro population w/ > 3 million residents moving out of cities since 2000
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undtable’s Four Pillars
Understand and communicate risk
Measure community resilience
Build partnerships
Share nformation
• Resilience – ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from, or better adapt to actual or potential adverse events
• Founded on three questionso What do you value?o What keeps you up at night?o What are you and your
community doing about it?• How community participates?
o Community meetings, programs and projects to reduce risks and support resilience
esilient America Roundtable of the National Academy of Sciences
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ACO Resiliency Testimony
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Great Moments in Resiliency
100 Resilient Cities Project
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Great Moments in Non‐
ResiliencyWinner of the “Not My Job Award”
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100 Resilient Cities(Rockefeller Foundation)
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Resilience to RemoveShocks Stresses
Natural disastersEarthquakesFiresFloods
• High unemployment• Overtaxed or inefficient
public transportation• Endemic violence• Chronic food and
water shortages
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00 Resilient City OverviewSupports 5 Pillars
nancial and logistical uidance for innovative ew positionpport for a robust silience strategyccess to solutions and artners from the ivate-public sectorsobal network of cities ho can learn from and elp each other
Constant Learning
Rapid Rebound
“Safe” FailureFlexibility
Spare Capacity
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Pillar 1: Constant LearningThe ability to internalize past experiences linked with robust feedback loops that sense, provide foresight, and
allow new solutions
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Pillar 2: Rapid ReboundThe capacity to re‐establish function, re‐organize, and avoid long‐term disruptions
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Pillar 3: Limited or ʺSafeʺ Failurevents failures from rippling across systems
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Pillar 4: FlexibilityThe ability to change, evolve, and adapt to lternative strategies in the face of disaster
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Pillar 5: Spare Capacityures that there is a back‐up or alternative available
when a vital component of a system fails
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Is it Easy?
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an Resilience Job Make it Easier?
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Requisite #2: Before we go too far…….
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If You Can Ever Dream we Can Think Alike, Try Again…
FINISHED FILES ARE THERESULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTIFIC
STUDY COMBINED WITH THEEXPERIENCE OF YEARS
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Closing ‐ Great Moments in esiliency and Non‐ResiliencyWhat we ve to arn to do, e learn by ing.ʺ
Aristotle
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Taking Fiscal Sustainability to the Next Level – Fiscal Resiliency and the High
Performance Organization Western Canada Finance Officers Association
Joe Casey, Deputy County ManagerHenrico County, Virginia USA
October 9, 2014
County of Henrico, Virginia Proud of our progress; excited about our future.