taming uncertainties in multi-scale pest and disease model and decision support tools for plant...
TRANSCRIPT
Taming Uncertainties in Multi-Scale Pest and Disease Model and Decision Support Tools for Plant Biosecurity
Award number: 2006-55605-16662Period of Funding: Jan. 2006 – Dec. 2008
Primary Institution: Oregon State UniversityProject Director: Leonard B. Coop
Other Principle Investigators:Chris Daly Oregon State University [email protected] Fox Fox Weather [email protected] Gent USDA-ARS [email protected] Grove Washington State University [email protected] Gubler University California, Davis [email protected] Jepson Oregon State University [email protected] Mahaffee USDA-ARS [email protected] Pfender USDA-ARS [email protected] Taylor Oregon State University [email protected]
Taming Uncertainties in Multi-Scale Pest and Disease Model and Decision Support Tools for Plant Biosecurity
Goal: To document the uncertainties and errors associated with all aspects of disease modeling, while building a system that can serve both plant biosecurity and integrated pest management (IPM) needs in the Western US. - We are presently 18 months into this 3-year program, and have made significant progress in the areas of
1) Spatialized weather forecasting systems relevant to plant disease modeling needs
2) Infrastructure for pest and plant disease modeling3) Targeted climatologies4) Field validations and uncertainty analyses.
1) Spatialized weather forecasting systems relevant to plant disease modeling needs
Forecast #1 – IPPC server S. WA + OR
Forecast #2 – Fox weather server – N. Calif.
Current Forecast Extent
.
10,000+ public weather station data
QA
NOAA GFS/NAMmodel forecasts
Fox Weather/IPPC models+
PRISM Climate models WRF mesoscale model
Kim et al. leaf wetness model
Database of modular pest models
Site-specific pest and disease model-relevant weather forecasts
Web GISUser Interface
1. Plant Biosecurity2. IPM
Process
Inputs
Outputs
1. Plant Disease Forecast System Overview
Uncertainties reports
Uncertainties analysis
100 km 6hr -> 7 days
800m 1hr
36km
Disease model and forecast infrastructure – building upon IPPC/NPDN website tools
Disease
weather
system
prototype
(NPDN)
Fox Weather/IPPC plant
disease weatherforecast
verification system
- day0 to day6 forecasts- near real time entire forecast region
(ex. OR + S. WA)
Online Plant Disease Model Forecast + Evaluation Tool – e. g. comparison of 3 days Fox Weather forecast with actual data for: -apple scab-powdery mildew -temperature-leaf wetness
I grant permission to USDA/CSREES to use this information for communicating about this project.
NRI PRISM-Aided Downscaling Methods and Activities
PRISM GroupPRISM GroupOregon State UniversityOregon State University
An analysis and prediction system is being developed that taps the ability of long-term climatological patterns to inform estimates of current and forecast weather patterns
1971-2000, all-day monthly PRISM Climatologies1971-2000, all-day monthly PRISM Climatologies
E flow example: cyclonic curvatureJune 5, 19931200 UTC
NE flow example:cyclonic curvature February 5, 1989 0000 UTC
Relative importance of 700-mb flow direction in NWOR
Frequency
Precipitation
NW Flow 1971-2000 all-day mean annual precipitationexpressed as a percentage of the domain-wide mean precipitation itation
Percent of the normalized all-day mean annual precipitation
Climo PRISM S (Southerly) 700-mb flow 1971-2000 mean annual precipitation
Percent of the domain-wide precipitation
NW flow 1971-2000 mean annual precipitation climatology (Expressed as percent of the domain-wide precipitation)
700-mb NW flow
Example Targeted Climatology - January 31, 1990 0000 UTC
I grant permission to USDA/CSREES to use this information for communicating about this project.
Field Validation Work(1 of 6 validation partners funded; others seeking additional support)
Crop Coordinating Plant PathologistHops Dave Gent USDA-ARSCherries Gary Grove Washington State UniversityWinegrapes Doug Gubler University California, DavisStrawberries Walter Mahaffee USDA-ARS Grass Seed William Pfender USDA-ARS
-weather data are collected in canopy and at standard heights and positions out of canopy
-for error and uncertainties analysis and development of correction curves for each weather parameter
Taming Uncertainties in Multi-Scale Pest and Disease Model and Decision Support Tools for Plant Biosecurity
1) Spatialized weather forecasting systems relevant to plant disease modeling needs
2) Infrastructure for pest and plant disease modeling3) Targeted climatologies4) Field validations and uncertainty analyses.
Additional and Future efforts: - Planning operational tests of forecasts/models for 2008 in selected tree fruit and grass seed regions- Test of first targeted climatologies system for 2008 in Oregon grass seed- Submitted Areawide IPM proposal to greatly expand operational capability of the system in numerous commodities and regions- Check out APS posters for Western Weather Systems Workgroup, Grass Seed Stem Rust model and uncertainties analysis