L-2014

Introducing...__-.

The TexasAssessmentModeling System

TAMS

INTRODUCING ... THE TEXASASSESSMENT MODELING SYSTEM

The Texas Assessment Modeling System (TAMS)provides information about the impact of lignitedevelopment on the private and public sectors to stateand local decision makers such as elected officials andpublic employees.

TAMS projects the impact of energy resourcedevelopment through lignite production, includingeconomic, demographic, public service and fiscalchanges. The system provides baseline and impactprojections for employment, output, population, publicservice requirements and public costs and revenues.Baseline projections are made annually, based on pasttrends and occurrences. Impact projections measurethe influence of economic development from a project.

Research for TAMS was supported by the TexasAgricultural Extension Service, the Center for Energyand Mineral Resources and the Texas Agricultural Ex­periment Station, all part of the Texas A&M UniversitySystem.

Any public or private group in Texas may use TAMS.Access is available through a direct computer terminalhook-up or in cooperation with the modeling team. Ausers' manual and technical description are available.

Lignite Development

As energy prices rise and other energy sources aredepleted, lignite production will become more impor­tant. Production has been approximately 30 million tonsper year during the early 1980's and vast increases areprojected for coming years.

As lignite plants begin initial construction phases andactual production, there are positive and negative ef­fects. Often, the impact will occur in rural areas wherethere has been little or no previous economic develop­ment. TAMS assesses the potential impacts of suchdevelopment. Model projections are provided at themunicipal, county and regional level. Decision makersshould use all available information when anticipatingsuch an impact.

Area Served

The Texas Assessment Modeling System providesthese baseline and impact projections for six councilof government areas in the lignite area of east and cen­tral Texas. This area includes 53 counties and 308municipalities. The six councils of government include:Alamo Area Council of Governments, Brazos ValleyDevelopment Council, Capital Area Planning Council,Central Texas Council of Governments, East TexasCouncil of Governments and Heart of Texas Councilof Governments.

Model Structure

TAMS describes the linkages and interrelationsamong industrial sectors in a regional economy. Basicexporting, trade and service sectors are included anddescribed in terms of employment and output. Popula­tion projections are also provided for the developmentcities. Population is broken into age and sex groupsto better interpret demographic forces. Net migrationis determined by comparing available labor forcecharacteristics with baseline and project employmentrequirements. Newcomers and their families mustchoose a place to live. TAMS provides projections ofsettlement patterns among cities in the developmentarea. Baseline and impact projections of total servicerequirements are provided for housing, education, med­ical and criminal justice services. Public sector costsand revenues associated with a project are alsoprovided.

Data

Since data requirements are related to the projectto be analyzed, the user must provide a description ofthe project including the name, size (capacity) and typeof facility. The estimated construction starting date andcommercial production date and the number of acresused for a plant or mine site are also required. A dataform to be completed by the user is provided with theTAMS users' manual.

For more information about TAMS, contact:

Dr. Mike WoodsTexas Agricultural Extension ServiceTexas A&M UniversityAgriculture Building Room 12College Station, TX 77843(713) 845-4445

Dr. Lonnie L. JonesDepartment of Agricultural EconomicsTexas A&M UniversityAgriculture Building Room 7College Station, TX 77843(713) 845-2336

Dr. Steve MurdockDepartment of Rural Sociology andCenter for Energy and Mineral ResourcesTexas A&M UniversityCollege Station, TX 77843(713) 845-5332

The Texas A&MUniverSIty System

TexasAgriculturalExtensionService

Daniel C Pfannstlel. DirectorCollege Station

Educational programs conducted by the Texas Agricultural Exten­sion Service serve people of all ages regardless of socioeconomiclevel, race, color, sex, religion, or national origin.

Cooperative Extension Work in Agriculture and Home Economics,The Texas A&M University System and the United States Depart­ment of Agriculture cooperating. Distributed in furtherance of the Actsof Congress of May 8, 1914, as amended, and June 30, 1914.1M-3-82, New CD