tao santander jan10 pendrive

Upload: fibriari

Post on 07-Apr-2018

235 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    1/27

    1

    Santander 14th Annual Latin America Conference

    January 2010

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    2/27

    2

    The information contained in this presentation may include statements which constituteforward-looking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. SecuritiesAct of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of riskand uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other forecasts,and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered reasonableby the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or may not bepossible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations disclosed in

    this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned that any suchforward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risksand uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in theforward-looking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, therisks of international business and other risks referred to in the companys filings withthe CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and specifically disclaims anyobligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only for the date onwhich they are made.

    Disclaimer

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    3/27

    3

    Agenda

    The Company

    Market Positioning

    Pulp and Paper Market

    3Q09 Financials

    Recent Events

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    4/27

    4

    The Company

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    5/27

    5

    VCP and Aracruz Merged to Create Fibria

    (1) Position as of Nov 30, 2009. BNDESPar has 21% linked to a shareholders agreement with VID during the first 3 years, and 10.9% during the following 2 years.

    Shareholder Structure

    Present value of R$4.5 billion of announced post-merger synergies

    Up to 2012, 90% of actions to extract synergies are expected to be in place

    16%

    15%

    6%

    11%

    2%

    27%

    23%

    ForestrySG&A

    Commercial

    Tax

    Logistics Others

    Industrial

    Votorantim

    Industrial S.A.BNDESPar Free Float

    Conpacel

    Veracel

    Celulose S.A.

    29.3% 33.6% (1) 37.1%

    50.0%50.0%

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    6/27

    6

    Improved Corporate Governance

    Board Advisory CommitteesBoard of Directors

    CEO

    Board of

    Directors

    Executive Board

    Ind. Ops &

    Engineering

    Francisco Valrio

    Comm. & Intl

    Logistics

    Joo Felipe Carsalade

    Paper, Planning,

    Procurement,

    and Forestry

    Ops. & Tech

    Marcelo Castelli

    Controllership

    & Risk

    Management

    Evando Coura

    Human and Org.

    Development

    Miguel Caldas

    Treasury & IR

    Marcos Grodetzky

    Each officer with more than 20 years experience in the sector

    Auditing

    Personnel and Remuneration

    Finance

    Sustainability

    Carlos A. Aguiar

    Independent MemberJos Armando de Figueiredo Campos

    BNDES RepresentativeEduardo Rath Fingerl

    Independent MemberAlexandre Gonalves Silva

    BNDES RepresentativeArmando Mariante Carvalho Junior

    Votorantim RepresentativeJoo Miranda

    Votorantim RepresentativeWang Wei Chang

    Jos Luciano Penido Chairman of the Board

    Raul Calfat Votorantim Representative

    Alexandre DAmbrosio Votorantim Representative

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    7/27

    7

    Market Positioning

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    8/27

    8

    Competitive Strengths

    Creation of a Winning Player

    Pulp production capacity: 5.4 MT / year (1)

    Paper production capacity: 358 kT / year (1)

    Total area: 1.1 million ha(1)|Eucalyptus plantation: 604 thousand ha (1)

    4 plants and operation of 3 port terminals, including the only specialized woodpulp terminal in Brazil, owned by us

    High yield in eucalyptus production (avg 45 m3/ha/year) and certified forests

    Short harvest cycle: 6 years vs. 25-70 years in Southern U.S., Canadaand Scandinavia

    Pulp MillPaper Mill

    BelmonteVeracelCaravelas

    PortocelAracruz

    PiracicabaJacareiSantos

    Trs LagoasConpacel

    Superior Asset Combination

    Port Terminal

    Data as of Nov 30, 2009.(1) Note: Excluding Guaba.

    Leadership inMarket Pulp

    Scale and IntegratedOperations

    Unique ForestryManagement:

    Advanced ForestryTechniques and

    Short Harvest Cycle

    Forest to Port

    Integration Trough

    Efficient Logistics

    Low ProductionCost DNA

    Strong / ReliableCustomer Base

    Modern IndustrialPlants

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    9/27

    9

    Market Share (1)

    Undisputable Leadership in the Global Market Pulp

    Pulp Production Capacity

    0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000

    Stora Ens o

    Cenibra

    West Fras er

    Mercer

    ENCE

    Georgia Pacific

    I l im

    IP

    Domtar

    Canfor

    APP

    Weyerhaeuser

    Suzano

    Tembec

    Botnia

    Sodra

    CMPC

    APRIL

    Arauco

    Fibria

    BSKP BHKP UKP Mech.

    2009E in ktons

    Source: PYRY, 2007 / As for Market Pulp: Pulp and Paper Products Council (PPPC) 2009 and Aracruz.Note: Capacity above mentioned does not include the Guaba unit.(1) Market Share estimated considering 2009 nominal capacity.

    5,400

    Dominant Position in a Growing Market

    1st

    ~ Twice

    the size

    510

    16 17

    33

    4349 49

    1995 2003 2008 2009BEKP Total Market Pulp

    Pulp Demand

    (in ktons)

    CAGR 95-09e: 8%

    CAGR 95-09e: 3%

    Growth 08-09e: 6%

    Growth 08-09e: (1%)

    3%

    11%

    22%

    32%

    TotalPulp:

    188 million MT

    Total Hardwood

    Pulp:

    25 million MT

    Total Market

    Pulp:

    48.5 million MT

    Total Eucalyptus

    Pulp:

    17 million MT

    e

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    10/27

    10

    276 322 249151

    266177

    305171 135 106 84

    254 175207

    303177

    239103

    119 135 155 148

    530497

    456 454 443 416 408

    290 269 261 232

    Wood Others

    Low Production Cost DNA

    Unique Expertise Enabling the Lowest Cash Cost in the Market and High Profitability

    (1) Source: Companies earnings releases, RISI and Brazilian Central Bank(2) Source: Hawkins Wright Estimate for 4Q09(3) Fibria's 3Q09 figures

    Cash Cost (US$/t)

    Hardwood Cash Cost (US$/t) vs. Capacity (kT)

    Cash Costs (2)

    2,35

    2,92

    3,08

    2,93

    2,44

    2,18

    1,951,84

    2,09

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 9M09

    45%48%

    50%

    47%

    43%42% 41%

    36%

    28%

    EBITDA Margin (%)

    Avg. BEKP Pulp Prices (US$/ton)

    Avg. FX Rate (R$/US$)

    Iberia

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000

    Iberia

    232

    492458

    505 520

    587

    642

    707

    782

    524

    Fibrias Margin vs. Macroeconomic Fundamentals (1)

    Capacity (kT)

    US$/ton

    (3)

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    11/27

    11

    State-of-the-Art Production Facilities

    Modern Plants

    Advanced Technology and Production Process Lead to Lower Usage of Raw Materials, Reducing Costs

    and Allowing for a Unique Track Record of Quality Products

    Streamlined and efficientoperations due to modernplants

    Environmental-friendly

    production process

    Reduced emissions anddisposition of residues

    Efficient use of chemicals

    Competitive Advantages

    AracruzCapacity 2.3 mtTechnical age: 9

    Trs LagoasCapacity 1.3 mtTechnical age: 0

    JacareCapacity 1.1 mtTechnical age: 5

    Average PlantCapacity(000 tons)

    2,500

    2,000

    1,500

    1,000

    500

    40 30 20 10

    RussiaJapan

    USASweden

    CanadaPortugalFinland

    FranceSpain

    ChileSouthAfrica China

    Brazil

    Indonesia

    Uruguay

    Technical age of the equipment (years)

    LARGEST SINGLE

    LINE PULP

    PRODUCTION

    FACILITY IN THE

    WORLD

    1 Last 12 months ending June 30, 2009.

    VeracelCapacity 1.1 mtTechnical age: 3

    BEST YIELD PER

    HECTARE OF THE

    WORLD

    Indonesia

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    12/27

    12

    1979

    1982

    1985

    1988

    1991

    1994

    1997

    2000

    2003

    2006

    2009

    Aracruz VCP Fibria

    Unique Brownfield Potential Growth

    Fibria has the Best Sites Ready to Almost Duplicate Capacity

    In million of tones

    Historical and Planned Capacity Increase

    1978: Start-up of mill "A" at Aracruz (Barra do Riacho)unit

    1988: Acquisition of Celpav 1992: Acquisition of Papel Simo (Jacare unit) 1996: New pulp line at Jacare mill 1991: Start-up of mill "B" at Barra do Riacho unit 2003: Expansion of Jacare mill 2003: Acquisition of Riocell (Guaiba Unit) 2005: Start-up of Veracel 2002: Start-up of mill "C" at Barra do Riacho unit 2007: Asset swap Luis Antnio for Trs Lagoas 2008: Establishment of Conpacel consortium 2009: Start-up of Trs Lagoas mill

    5.4

    1,5

    1,5

    1,5

    0,7

    5,2

    Veracel II

    Trs Lagoas II

    Expansion

    Barra do Riacho IV

    Losango I

    10.6

    Best sites for additional capacity

    Brow nfi el d B rownf iel d G reen fi el d Br ownf ield

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    13/27

    13

    NY004GAK_1.worNY004GAK_1.worNY004GAK_1.worNY004GAK_1.worNY004GAK_1.worNY004GAK_1.worNY004GAK_1.worNY004GAK_1.wor

    Long Term Relationship With Key Clients

    Premium Paper Producers Value High Quality Pulp Customized Products

    Which Implies in Less Volatility in Sales Volume Throughout Economic Cycles

    Global Footprint

    Supplies customized pulp products to specific paper grades

    Sole supplier to key customers focused on eucalyptus pulp to the tissue market

    Top 10 main customers represent on average 65% of sales

    1 Breakdown of sales destination in the last 12 months ending September 30, 2009.

    23%

    52%

    25%

    P&W

    Tissue

    Specialty

    Uses of Fibrias Pulp

    Europe

    31%

    Offices

    North America

    25%Asia

    34%

    Brazil

    9%

    Beijing

    Switzerland

    Sales

    Destination(1)

    Miami Hong Kong

    Hungary

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    14/27

    14

    Efficient and Reliable Logistics Network

    Efficient Supply Chain to the Customers

    Average of 145 km from forests to pulp mills

    Portocel port terminal in the State of Esprito Santo, is located only 1.5 km from Barra do Riacho plant

    Long term relationship with leading paper manufacturers allows for lower freight cost

    Efficient and Competitive Logistics (1)Competitive Transportation (Forest > Mill > Ports)

    Base 100 = March 2006Aracruz

    (Barra do Riacho)

    Jacare

    Conpacel

    Veracel

    Trs Lagoas

    Road

    Rail

    Road

    Rail

    10% Road90% Barge

    1 Bloomberg.

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    Mar-06

    Jun-06

    Sep-06

    Dec-06

    Mar-07

    Jun-07

    Sep-07

    Dec-07

    Mar-08

    Jun-08

    Sep-08

    Dec-08

    Mar-09

    Jun-09

    Baltic Dry Index Fibria's inland/ocean freight, insurance and other

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    15/27

    15

    Pulp and Paper Market

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    16/27

    16

    Positive Commodity Cycle and Demand Recovery

    World market pulp shipments to capacity World P&W paper shipments to capacity

    World pulp producers average days of supply European pulp consumers days of supply

    Source: PPPC Source: Utipulp

    25

    10

    20

    30

    40

    5060

    Jan-0

    4

    Jun-0

    4

    Nov-0

    4

    Apr-05

    Sep-0

    5

    Feb-0

    6

    Jul-06

    Dec-0

    6

    May-0

    7

    Oct-07

    Mar-08

    Aug-0

    8

    Jan-0

    9

    Jun-0

    9

    Nov-0

    9

    93%

    98%

    93%95%

    88%

    92%

    89%

    87%

    97%

    92%

    85%

    78%76%

    79%79%77%

    73%

    79%79%78%

    89%

    87%

    jan/08

    ab

    r/08

    ju

    l/08

    ou

    t/08

    jan/09

    ab

    r/09

    ju

    l/09

    ou

    t/09

    85%

    93%92%

    94%

    91%89%

    82%

    86%

    83%

    79%

    90%

    77%

    88%

    92%

    97%

    86%

    95%

    92%93%

    95%

    90%92%

    91%

    jan/08

    ma

    r/08

    ma

    i/08

    ju

    l/08

    se

    t/08

    nov/08

    jan/09

    ma

    r/09

    ma

    i/09

    ju

    l/09

    se

    t/09

    nov/09

    21

    15

    20

    25

    3035

    jan-04

    jun-04

    nov-04

    abr-05

    set-05

    fev-06

    jul-06

    d

    ez-06

    m

    ai-07

    out-07

    m

    ar-08

    a

    go-08

    jan-09

    jun-09

    nov-09

    Source: PPPC Source: PPPC

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    17/27

    17

    BHKP List pulp price (FOEX) vs BRL/US$

    Pulp Supply / Demand Expected to Rebalance in theMedium Term

    Market Pulp: world demand growth China: Eucalyptus pulp shipments (000 t)

    Global market recovery

    Demand

    Paper demand recovery; China keeping up the pace.

    Low consumers and producers inventories

    Market downtimes;Currency

    Appreciation of local currencies against the US$.

    Successive announcements of list price increases (as of Jan.10)

    North America: US$760/t Europe: US$730/t

    Asia: US$690/t

    Average310 k tons

    Average163 k tons

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    Jan/09

    Feb/09

    Mar/09

    Apr/09

    May/09

    Jun/09

    Jul/09

    Aug/09

    Sep/09

    Oct/09

    Nov/09

    Dec/09

    BRL/USD FOEX BHKP List Price

    +25%

    -24%

    101146

    186181192

    132134 9865

    93

    210

    419

    238

    307368

    307318307323

    256233

    299

    458

    Jan/08

    Mar/09

    May/08

    Jul/08

    Sep/08

    Nov/08

    Jan/09

    Mar/09

    May/09

    Jul/09

    Sep/09

    Nov/09

    -13%-21% -23%

    -10%-23%

    62%

    2%

    -1%-12%

    9%

    -18%

    73%

    Total North America Western

    Europe

    Latin America Japan China

    Jan 2008 vs. Jan 2009 11M08 vs. 11M09

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    18/27

    18

    China's presence in the market pulp sector

    China's Hardwood imports of BHKP by country

    0

    1.000

    2.000

    3.000

    4.000

    5.000

    6.000

    BHKP

    Total

    B

    razil

    Indon

    esia

    Chile

    Ru

    ssia

    Uru

    guay

    Canada

    USA

    Others

    Tha

    iland

    Source: PPPC W20. Coverage for chemical market pulp is 80% of world capacity.

    China's share of market pulp (%)

    Source: Hawkins Wright

    +59%

    +99%

    +9%

    +39%

    +10%+165%

    +41% +80% +134% +34%0

    1.000

    2.000

    3.000

    4.000

    5.000

    6.000

    7.000

    8.000

    9.000

    2005 2006 2007 2008 11M09

    BEKP

    9%11%

    13%

    16%

    26%

    7%9%

    10%

    12%

    23%

    Growth in 2009

    2008 BHKP

    Brazil is the leading exporter of BHKP to China,accounting to approximately 40% of China's totalimports in the 11M09.

    Between 2005 and 11M09, Chinese marketshare of eucalyptus shipments increased by17 p.p. (total market pulp: +11 p.p.)

    Total Market Pulp

    10%10%

    12%

    14%

    21%

    'ooot

    'ooot

    Pulp shipments ('000 t) and market share (%)

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    19/27

    19

    P&W Paper Capacity Changes

    P&W paper capacity withdrawls 2009-2010 (1)

    340late 2011Guangxi Huajin Group

    1,250Q1 2011Shandong Chenming

    500Q1 2011Shandong Huatai Paper

    2002010Yeuyang Paper

    200Oct 2009Yeuyang Paper

    200Jul 2009MCC Yinhe Paper

    350Jan 2009Puyang Longfeng

    200Oct 2009Fujian Nanping Paper

    200Q3 2009Guangxi Jindaxing Paper

    150Feb 2009Tralin, Gaotang

    Q1 2011

    May 2010

    1H 2010

    Q2 2010

    Q1 2010

    Effective Date

    6,040Total P&W capacity changes in China

    300China Metalurgical MeiliPaper

    200Lee&Man

    350Sun Paper/IP

    Company / Mill 000's tonnes

    APP, Hainan Island 1,200

    Jiangsu Oji Paper 400

    2009 = 1.3 million t

    2010 = 2.3 million t

    2011 = 2.4 million t

    (1) Source: TerraChoice Dec 2009

    China: P&W paper capacity changes 2009-2011(1)

    340North America/2010International Paper

    200North America/2010Domtar

    200North America/2009International Paper

    255North America/2009Others

    265North America/2009Domtar

    440Europe/2009Others

    80Europe/2010Others

    3,300Total P&W capacity withdrawls in Europe andNorth America

    540Europe/2009M Real

    250Europe/2009International Paper

    220Europe/2010Sappi

    Europe/2010

    Region/Date

    520Stora Enzo

    Company 000'stonnes

    2009 = 1.9 million t

    2010 = 1.4 million t

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    20/27

    20

    3Q09 Financials

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    21/27

    21

    Paper Business

    Paper market recovery

    Market

    Imports more attractive with the US$ devaluation Demand starting to grow again, but apparent

    consumption is still below 2008 levels

    Fibria Performance

    Sales volume and revenue mix: focus on specialtypapers

    Seasonality: positive impact on sales volume

    Paper: Sales and Revenue mix

    Paper: Sales volume ('000 t)

    122

    104

    110

    3Q08 2Q09 3Q09

    49% 50% 49%

    24% 20% 21%

    28% 30% 30%

    3Q08 2Q09 3Q09

    38% 38% 38%

    21% 19% 19%

    41% 43% 43%

    3Q08 2Q09 3Q09

    Coated

    Uncoated

    Specialty/Other

    Sales Volume Revenues

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    22/27

    22

    Financial Performance

    Pulp Cash Cost (R$/t)Net revenue (R$ million)

    Pulp: sales volume ('000 t) Pulp: sales mix (000 t)

    Cash cost w/o

    stoppages (R$/t)

    1.407

    1.471

    1.402

    3Q08 2Q09 3Q09

    946

    1.3491.276

    3Q08 2Q09 3Q09

    521 509 473426 433

    3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09

    487

    422403

    3Q08 2Q09 3Q09

    21%

    36%11%

    30%

    3Q09

    38%

    16%10%

    37%

    3Q08

    BrazilNorth America EuropeAsia

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    23/27

    23

    Financial Performance

    CAPEX 9M09: R$1,232 millionEBITDA (R$ million) and EBITDA margin (%)

    Net Income (R$ million)

    -148

    -188

    -178

    181

    +47

    +52+875

    327-99-77

    426-204

    -325

    Adjusted

    Ebitda

    Non-

    recurring

    effects / non-

    cash

    Ebitda Income tax

    expense

    Exchange

    Variation on

    Debt

    Derivatives Other

    Exchange

    Variation

    Interest on

    loan

    Income on

    financial

    instruments

    Other

    financial

    income

    Minority

    Interest

    Other (*) Net income

    3Q09

    (*) The amount is the sum of the Depreciation, Amortization and Exhaustion.

    426389

    498

    35%

    26%30%

    3Q092Q093Q08

    41%

    59%

    69%31%

    25%

    17%

    13%

    5%

    7%

    14%

    10%

    7%

    1Q09 2Q09 3Q09

    Expansion Forestry Maintenance Other

    576

    387

    269

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    24/27

    241 FX of September 30, 2009 R$ / US$ 1.7781

    2 Does not include Sellers Financing

    3T09 Cash position R$ 2.6 bi R$ 4.8 bi

    Average Maturity 37 months 47 months

    Average Cost 2 7.42% p.a. 7.50% p.a.

    US$/ BRL 62%/38% 62%/38%

    Subordination structure

    Original After plan Cash

    No Collateral

    With Collateral

    Receivables

    56%

    1%

    43%

    79%

    1%

    20%

    Indebtedness

    Maturity Schedule 1 (R$ billion)

    4,8

    2,8

    1,4 1,5

    0,9 0,8

    0,10,4

    4,2

    2,1

    0,7

    1,4 1,51,8 2,0

    1,0

    0,1

    0,9

    0,3

    1,61,1

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    4,8

    2,8

    1,4 1,5

    0,9 0,8

    0,10,4

    1,61,1

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    Effects of the Liability Management Plan

    Before the plan x After the plan

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    25/27

    25

    Recent Events

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    26/27

    26Source: Fibria

    Recent Events

    Dec 22Approval of the merger of Aracruz into Fibria

    Nov 18Fibria trading start (Bovespa: FIBR3 / NYSE: FBR)

    Nov 17End of Aracruz trading

    Nov 12End of withdrawal rights period

    Oct 29Shareholderes Agreement - VID and BNDES

    Aug 24Merger of Aracruz shares into VCP approval

    Aug 24Incorporation proposal for the 0.1347 ratio

    Jul 02Tender Offer for Aracruz common shareholders

    Jun 12VCP conversion of prefered into common shares

    Apr 14VCP Capital Increase

    Jan 20Acquisition by VCP of additional 28% of Aracruz common shares

    Date/estimateEvent

  • 8/4/2019 tao Santander Jan10 Pendrive

    27/27

    27

    Investor Relations Team:

    Marcos Grodetzky IRO

    Andr Gonalves IR Manager

    Fernanda Naveiro Vaz IR Consultant

    Anna Laura Linkewitsch IR Specialist

    Livia Baptista IR Analyst