taos review - clivar · 2018. 2. 10. · •observing system experiments (oses) –rodas () () c....

Societal impact and importance of observing the Tropical Atlantic

Session I: Requirements for the Tropical Atlantic Observing System

PIRATA SSG and contributors

TAOS Review

1st TAOS Review WorkshopPortland, USA, 8-9 Feb. 2018

Complementarity of Satellite and In situ observationsOperational Oceanography (short term forecast)Longterm Climate Changes (long term forecast)Scientific DriversHow Beneficial TAOS is ?

- Predictability of Extreme Events (hurricanes, droughts/floods)

- Impacts on Human Security & Health

- Impacts on Ecosystem Health

- OSEs and OSSEs

- Capacity Building

Some Final Thoughts

TAOS ReviewSocietal impact and importance of

observing the Tropical Atlantic

Outline:

TAOS ReviewSocietal impact and importance of

observing the Tropical Atlantic

Complementarity of Satellite and In situ observations - GOOS

Global in situ data greatly enhanced coverage in the tropical Atlantic Ocean

+ SWOT (2021 on ...) and others ...

Marine Safety Marine Pollution Research

Coastal

EnvironmentMarine

Resources

Cyclones

Sea Campaigns Extreme events

Marine areas

management

Races and

regattas

New Services Expeditions

Marine policies

public information

Offshore energy

Naval operations

Weather

Operational Oceanography (short term needs) A «core service» to serve a wide range of applications

Courtesy: F. Hernandez (MERCATOR Océan)

Climate Changes (long term needs)

Heat Content anomaly (0–1500m) (2005-2012)

Sea level rise in Europe (1992-2012)

Arctic sea ice concentration evolution (1992-2012)

Mean ChlorophyllConcentration(1995-2011)

+3,3 mm/year

+5.7.1021 Joules/year

More than 10x energy consumedby humanity every year

~ -75 000 km2/year

More than 700x size of Paris per year

Prediction and Research moored array in the Tropical Atlantic – PIRATA(since 1997)

1995

1996

1997 1998 2000 2005 2009 2014

Setup

Planning

Phase

Pilot

Phase

(MoU-1)

Consolidation

Phase

(MoU-2)

(MoU-3)•••

2006

2007

2008

CLIVAR-WCRP

(1st Review)

2017

2018

(MoU-4)

TAOS(2nd Review underway)

Short/Long term Forecasts: we need continuos and long term observations

Main Scientific Drivers

Atlantic meridional mode African MonsoonAtlantic equatorial mode

Biogeochemistry &

Ecosystems

Ocean Circulation and AMOC

Tropical Storms & Hurricanes PREFACE program: SST Bias in the SE TA

Xu et al. (2014)

Total: 3,329,494 files

Total: 371 public.

- ARGO, GO-SHIP, DBCP, VOOS- OceanSITES, MOVE, PIRATA- TACE & PREFACE- BMBF Projects RACE/SACUS- etc….

Improving Science in the TA

How beneficial TAOS is ?

• Hurricanes - extreme climate events

Predictability of Extreme Events (hurricanes, droughts/floods) Impacts on Human Security & Health

Courtesy: M. McPhaden (MOAA)

Hounsou-Gbo et al. (2012, 2015, 2016)

• Early warning - extreme rainfall events

Fortaleza rainfall

FOR

NWEA

BLT/OHC variability

How beneficial TAOS is ?Predictability of Extreme Events (hurricanes, droughts/floods)

Impacts on Human Security & Health

• Early warning - extreme rainfall events

Hounsou-Gbo et al. (2012, 2015, 2016)

BLT/OHC variabilityLHFA x Fortaleza RAINA



9 new T/C purchased for each NWEA sites: 8oN38oW, 4oN38oW and 0oS35oW

• Early warning - tropical diseases (Dengue)

Araujo et al. (2014)

The cross-correlation 0.7 with a lag of 40 days.8So30oWRecife

(8oS34oW)



• Coral reef bleaching

Ferreira et al. (2010, 2012)

0o35oWRocas

(4oS34oW)

Hot spot

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 080

1

2

[oC

]

years

How beneficial TAOS is ?Impacts on Ecosystem Health

Multidecadal Oxygen changes along 23°W (1972-2013):

Peter Brandt, Johannes Hahn, GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany

How beneficial TAOS is ?Impacts on Ecosystem Health

• Observing System Experiments (OSEs) – AtlantOS/ECMWF (*)

• Two experiments (1/4° degree Ocean ReAnalysis System 5 - ORAS5):(a) OSEs by removing observing system components everywhere: Argo, Moorings, XBT/MBT and CTD, all in situ observations, SLA observations; (b) Specific OSEs by removing observing system components in a given area: all in-situ observations within shallow water areas, altimetry observation of Sea Levels in different ocean regions, ocean in-situ observations of mooring profiles (T/S) in the Tropics.

(*) E. Rémy et al. (2017). AtlantOS WP7.4 Integration in models and impact for CMEMS.

- Argo assimilation appears to be very important related to moorings & CTD/XBT profiles IF differences only are observed. BUT need to consider the number of observations and locations, and correlations too ! - Individual impact of moorings is more important that as could be deduced… Moorings measurements are VERY important for validation & calibration of operational systems (accuracy & interannual trends) over long time periods (e.g. reanalysis)

OSEs and OSSEs


• Observing System Experiments (OSEs) - AtlantOS/ECMWF OSEs’ 20oC thermocline depths as averaged between 2010 and 2015 (top) departures (in m) from Control Reference (CNTL; with assimilation of all data) and correlations with CNTL after removal seasonal signals (bottom) :

OSEs and OSSEs


• Observing System Experiments (OSEs) – RODAS (*)

(*) C. Tanajura et al. (2017). Observing System Evaluation Experiments with the REMO Ocean Data Assimilation System (RODAS) and HYCOM in the Atlantic. GOVST VIII, Bergen, 6-10 Nov. 2017.

• RODAS: - Assimilation of SST, Argo T/S, SLA and PIRATA T/S;- HYCOM 1/12o

• Focused on a specific network: PIRATA;• One experiment: OSEs with/without PIRATA Jan-Dec 2012.

◦

◦

◦

◦

OSEs with PIRATA needs longer assimilation run to better show the impact of PIRATA data, but preliminary results show that locally the impact is substantial.

OSEs and OSSEs


• Observing System Experiments (OSEs) - RODAS

RMSD T(oC) and S (psu) wrt PIRATA data (5 buoys): Jan-May 2012

Free

1.13oC

With PIRATA

0.76oC

Without PIRATA

0.76oC

Free0.29

With PIRATA0.17

Without PIRATA

0.21

OSEs and OSSEs


• Observing System Experiments (OSEs) – EUMETNET/Météo-France/ECMWF (*)

(*) P. Pauli et al. (2018). How useful are PIRATA mooring surface pressure data to improve the weather forecasts ? doi:10.5281/zenodo.1164620. EUMETNET and Météo-France.

• Focused on specific networks (which are assimilated, in decreasing order):- Satellites, upper-air (radiosondes, aircraft), land-surface, and sea-surface (including PIRATA moorings). • OSEs:- Operational ECMWF system (May 2015 and April 2017), whereby the individual Forecast Sensitivity to

Observation is computed, and stored within the observation feedback, for each assimilated observation (Cardinali, 2009);

- Contribution of different observations networks to improving the forecasts (by reduction of the 24-hour forecast error via the data assimilation).

The collection of surface pressure data from moored and drifting buoys in the Tropical Atlantic delivers valuable benefits to global weather predictions.

OSEs and OSSEs


• Observing System Experiments (OSEs) – EUMETNET/Météo-France/ECMWF (*)

? (a)

(b)

For PIRATA moored buoys: (a) = 0.000055% of the total number of observations assimilated;(b) = 0.006076 % of the total 24-hour global error forecast reduction.

IF = (b)/(a) IF (PIRATA moored buoys) 110

IF (drifting buoys in the tropics) 128IF (drifting buoys on the surface of the globe) 400IF (other surface marine observations) 5IF (surface land-based observing systems) 4IF (upper-air observing systems, including aircraft and radiosondes) 2IF (satellites) 0.8

Impact Factor

OSEs and OSSEs


• Observing System Experiments (OSEs) – CNRM/Méteo-France ARPEGE (*)

(*) J-F. Mahfouf et al. (2018). On the use of BUOY observations in the Numerical Weather Prediction dataassimilation systems at Météo-France. CNRM/Méteo-France.

OSEs and OSSEs


ALL BUOYS considered (PIRATA, TAO, RAMA, and others…)

Impact Impact / Obs. number

BUOY

BUOY

J

J

timet0t-1 t1

xat

xbt

= Forecast error

- Backward analysis : Optimal initial conditions to reduce forecast error (J) for each parameter or set of parameter observations

• Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) – SEAPODYM-MTL (*)

(*) A. Delpech et al. (2017). OSS Experiments in SEAPODYM-MTL. MERCATOR/CLS.

OSEs and OSSEs


• Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) – SEAPODYM-MTL

OSEs and OSSEs


Master in Physical Oceanography and Application - M2 OPA (Cotonou, Benin)

- Students from all over West Africa to study the physics, chemistry and biology of the ocean;- Lecturers from: France (UPS, LEGOS, ...), Benin (UAC) and Brazil (UFPE); - >90 students formed from 2008 (Benin, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Togo, Ghana, Senegal, Nigeria);- >30 Continued in PhD: in France, Brazil, South Africa, Germany, Canada, Cameroon, Benin, ...UFPE

Capacity Building


PIRATA and AtlantOS cruises = opportunities for students/young scientists training to measurements at sea

FR cruises: more than 40 African scientists/students+ training (2009, 2011) of M2 OPA Cotonou

BR cruises: young scientists & PhD (Br & Africa)

US PNE cruises: strong contribution to AEROSE

Capacity Building


• Agenda 2030 and SDGsHow TAOS can contribute/be enhanced to help achieve SDGs (not only SDG-13 and 14) ?

Some Final Thoughts

Societal impact and importance of observing the Tropical Atlantic

Session I: Requirements for the Tropical Atlantic Observing System

PIRATA SSG and contributors

TAOS Review

1st TAOS Review WorkshopPortland, USA, 8-9 Feb. 2018

• Observing System Experiments (OSEs) – Global HYCOM (*)

(*) J. A. Cummings & O. M. Smedstadt (2014). Ocean Data Impacts in Global HYCOM. JAOT.

• Focused on specific networks (which are assimilated):

- Argo array; Fixed buoys (including PIRATA moorings); Drifting buoys; TESAC; Altim.—MODAS synthetic profiles; Animal sensor profiles; SST—satellite and in situ SST measurements;

• OSEs: HYCOM (Sep to Nov 2012), whereby the individual Forecast Sensitivity to Impacts on reducing model 48-h (top) temperature (°C) and (bottom) salinity (PSU) forecast error.

48-h (top) temperature (°C) Bottom salinity (PSU)

XBT Argo Fixed Drift TESAC Altim. Anim. SST

- Argo and fixed buoys are highly complementary ; - Highly temporally resolved data time series can only be obtained from fixed moorings.

OSEs and OSSEs


taos review - clivar · 2018. 2. 10. · •observing system experiments (oses) –rodas (*) (*) c....

Documents

taos review - clivar · 2018. 2. 10. · •observing system experiments (oses) –rodas () () c....