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“Tapes scandal” in Poland

June 25th 2014

(part two)

Donald Tusk’s government wins the vote of confidence

On May 25th, PM Donald Tusk asked the Parliament for the vote of confidence. 237 MPs

(both coalition parties + 4 independent MPs + 1 MP of Janusz Palikot’s party) supported the

government, 203 were against (all present members of Law and Justice, 37 of Janusz

Palikot’s Your Move, all present SLD (the Left) MPs, 11 of Zbigniew Ziobro’s Solidarna Polska

and 10 independent). 20 MPs were absent during the vote (including 10 MPs of Law and

Justice).

Law and Justice will prepare a motion for a constructive vote of no confidence, proposing his

own candidate for “technical” prime minister. To win a vote, PiS would have to get a support of

231 MPs. The goal of preparing a motion is “to keep a debate going” – as prof. Piotr Gliński,

the possible candidate for PM described in the TV interview.

Background:

“Wprost” weekly published a partial transcription of secretly recorded private conversations

between:

1. Marek Belka (head of National Bank of Poland) and Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz (Minister

of the Interior)

2. Sławomir Nowak (former PM Donald Tusk’s chief of staff, discredited after he had not

disclosed an expensive watch in the material benefits report) and Andrzej

Parafinowicz (former Deputy Minister of Finance)

3. Paweł Graś (secretary general of Civic Platform) and Jacek Krawiec (head of Orlen,

the biggest oil refiner and petrol retailer, the state is the biggest shareholder with 27.52

of shares)

4. Radosław Sikorski (minister of foreign affairs) with Jan Rostowski (then the minister

of finance)

5. Włodzimierz Karpiński (minister of treasury), Jacek Krawiec (Orlen) and Zdzisław

Gawlik (deputy minister of treasury)

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6. Stanisław Gawłowski (deputy minister of environment) and Piotr Wawrzynowicz

(businessman, in past connected with Civic Platform, now works for the richest Pole,

Jan Kulczyk)

Additionally, the existence of other recordings is also possible: of Elżbieta Bieńkowska

(Minister of Infrastructure and Regional Development) with the head of Central Anti-Corruption

Bureau (Paweł Wojtunik), and of Jan Kulczyk (richest Pole) with Krzysztof Kwiatkowski (head

of National Chamber of Audit). According to some sources, there may be even few hundred

hours of recordings.

Recent developments:

Soon after the first part of recordings were published by Wprost weekly, the Internal Security

Agency (ABW) raided the Wprost’s office looking for copies of recordings. The raid was

broadcasted live online. The attempt of getting access to recordings failed, few days later the

editor in chief of Wprost provided copies of recordings directly to the prosecutor. The raid was

later presented as the violation of media freedom by the government, even if Mr Tusk many

times underlined that he has no influence on the prosecutor (independent) and it would be

illogical for the government to inspire such actions.

After the scandal emerged, the support for the ruling party dropped to 24%, the main

opposition party (Law and Justice) has 31%. The “New Right Congress” – new player on the

political scene that recently got 4 places in European Parliament – has 10%. 51% of Poles

support the earlier parliamentary elections. Polls were conducted on May 23rd, the day the

second part of transcriptions was published.

According to press investigation conducted by Puls Biznesu daily (see the English version of

PB’s article at http://m.pb.pl/3742120,80887?dimension=640), there is a strong clue pointing

to the Russians and private coal company fighting for keeping its market as the source of

the tape scandal.

During the parliamentary session on May 25th, PM Donald Tusk referred the recent

developments and asked the Parliament for the vote of confidence. The government won the

vote.

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Consequences of the scandal

Short-term:

The discussion in Poland weakened the position of Polish government shortly before

the European Council on June 26-27, that is to focus on new commissioners European

energy policy and increasing energy independence of EU (independence from Russian

energy sources was one of key topics of Polish position);

Weakening the position of Civic Platform before regional elections planned for

November 2014;

Possible consolidation of right-side part of political scene;

Decreased probability of parliamentary elections before the planned end of term (late

2015).

Long-term:

The history of previous “tape scandals” (Mr Sawicki, Glapiński-Beger, etc.) and their influence

on society suggest that in just a few weeks the case will become a non-issue for an average

Pole. Despite attempts of opposition parties, the polarization of media becomes a fact and now

half of influential media (esp. Gazeta Wyborcza daily and Polityka weekly) support the official

line of government’s argumentation (eavesdropping is illegal, publishing recordings without

prior investigation by journalists is not a journalism, one should find these who are behind

recordings etc.)

The recordings will be used by the opposition in the election campaign as a proof of secret

talks aiming at breaching the Constitution by Civic Platform. So far opposition parties have no

idea how to use these recordings.

The more visible effect might be the reform of the Polish secret services that were unable to

prevent the recording (even though the VIP room in the restaurant where the conversations

were recorded was checked by secret service officers) and – in a few months – possible

change on the position of the minister of the interior.

It is also clearly visible that the significance of Polish People’s Party (PSL) – the smaller

coalition partner – rises. PSL’s leader, deputy PM Janusz Piechociński, again became the

important player on the political scene.

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It must be underlined that new tapes, if published, may contain additional controversial details

that might change the situation completely.

In case of additional questions, please contact:

Łukasz Jachowicz, Head of Public Affairs

Lukasz.Jachowicz@mslgroup.com