tapping your inner futurist the future of learning€¦ · growth decline - collapse disciplined -...
TRANSCRIPT
Garry GoldenForward Elements
Tapping Your Inner Futurist
The Future of Learning
January 10, 2015
Implications of Social Changes
Warm upForesight 101
Next Steps
K-12… College…Careers… Service Life
2000-2014 vs 2015-2030
Things that will not go away… Desire for Play, Desire to Express Ourselves, Need for Creativity; Face-to-Face Time; Reading for Pleasure; Books; Classrooms
LUNCH
In the News
False
In 2015 the Supreme Court is scheduled to hear a case filed by James Lee to allow him to erase social media data created before his 25th birthday. The case will set up rights to deleting digital content.
True
Social Data Health & Wellness Data
Performance Analytics & Learning Data
Early Days of Turning Personal Data into Wisdom
Today’s World:Data = Summative High-stakes Testing
Challenge #1:Shaping a Positive Learner Culture Amidst Data & Algo Revolution
Barclays bank has developed an empathy-based training program that uses an mobility impairment suit to simulate the experience felt by aging and disabled populations
True False
Wanted: People who can see through the eyes of others and their own
Challenge #2: Local & Global Citizenship in World of 9 Billion Perspectives
Empathy in Networked Age
How to Talk about our Differences
The Manufacturing Institute is creating a National Manufacturing Badge System for skills and achievements needed to be successful in today’s Advanced Manufacturing workplace
True False
The Cumulating School & Career PathMicro-credentials for the Future of Learning & Work
PortfolioCourse Experiences (incl. failures!)
PresenceAssociation with Learning Communities
Resume
Challenge #3:Helping Students Tell a Story of Lifelong Learning
Headlines about… Human + Machines that Learn
Your news headlines from 2020
See Survey Review .doc on website
Finding my inner Futurist?
Images Removed
Every day I make an effort to go toward what I don't understand.
Yo-Yo Ma
1950sScenario-Thinking
1970s Systems Thinking
1930s Social-Technological Change
1980s Strategy as Competitive Advantage
William Ogburn Herman Kahn Club of Rome (Growth) McKinsey/BCG
Foresight 101: History of Futures Studies
Expected future
Past Present
Plan A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Scenario E
Foresight 101: Culture of Thinking in Multiple Outcomes, Time Horizons
Trends(Continuities)
Plausible Future
Foresight 101: Three Mechanisms of Change
Forecasts
Choices(Discontinuities)
Events(Discontinuities)
Possible Futures
Preferred Futures
Scenarios
Visions
Continued Growth
Decline - Collapse
Disciplined - Constrained
Transformed
?
* Jim Dator, University of Hawaii
Foresight 101: Four Futures of Catlin Gabel
Trends(Continuities)
Choices(Discontinuities)
Events(Discontinuities)
Possible Futures
Preferred Futures
Scenarios
Visions
Get Action: Strategic Planning Process Create a Top Ten List of Change
Plausible Future
Forecasts
Continued Growth
Decline - Collapse
Disciplined - Constrained
Transformed
Get Action: Strategic Planning Process Create Narratives of Catlin Gabel’s Four Futures
Implications of Emerging Trends
Warm upForesight 101
Next Steps
Future of Learning Implications of Emerging Trends & Issues
The Overwhelmed Life Adaptive Learning Civic Culture
Meet "the overwhelmed employee" —dealing with the flood of information, text messages, tweets, emails, meetings, and conference calls every day.
People check their phones almost 150 times a day, which causes distraction, stress, and general reduction in productivity.
Research shows that the average office worker can only focus for seven minutes at a time before they either switch windows or check Facebook! (*Neurologist Larry Rosen)
- Deloitte 2014 Human Capital Trends Study
Signal to Watch: The Overwhelmed Employee
•Teens report that their stress level during the school year (5.8/10) far exceeds what they believe to be a healthy level of stress (3.9/10).•42 percent of teens say that they're either not doing enough to manage their
stress or they're not sure if they're doing enough.
Assumption: The Overwhelmed Student (& employee) becomes a public health issue
By 2020, students & employees will seek non-traditional solutions to overcome mental wellness challenges
State of active, open attention on the present. Observing your thoughts and feelings from a distance, without judging them good or bad. (Psychology Today)
Mindfulness:
Intentional, accepting and non-judgmental focus
The ‘Business Case’ Mindfulness
… may help:
Notice when a decision should or could be made; See ethical challenges
Increase goal awareness
Gathering information and insights; Facilitate option generation
More Open to Feedback & Collaboration
Natalia Karelaia Jochen Reb
Research Case for Mindfulness, Contemplation & Meditation
Research Case for Mindfulness, Contemplation & Meditation
The Goldie Hawn Effect
• Students who sleep more or have more conversations are less likely to be depressed; students who are more physically active are less likely to feel lonely; students who are around other students are less likely to be depressed. Also, surprisingly, there was no correlation between students’ academic performance and their class attendance
• Student who are more social (i.e., had more conversations) have a better GPA; students who have higher GPAs tend to be less physically active, have lower indoor mobility at night, and spend more time around others.
Student Life Project
Signal: Bringing in an Internal ChampionGoogle Explores the Organizational Impact of Mindfulness
Does our community have or need visible champions?
Student Attitudes Towards ‘Quantified Self’ Culture The Compelling & Creepy Lines of Personal Data & Behavior Change
Might Young People Seek to Understand Brain Dynamics?
Catlin Gabel provides all students, parents & teachers with neuro hardware; Mindfulness training across Portland
March 23, 2017
Catlin Gabel Campus Culture Voted America’s Most Focused Student culture
Our Role? Where to Begin?
Pulse Check to Assess BaselineSigns of Overwhelming Conditions
Identify Communities of Practice
Develop Spectrum of Techniques (Raisins, Dancing/Tango, Silence Game)(Neuro-Hardware for Data wonks)
Reach out to Research & Practitioner Community
2015-2020
Describe Vision –Opportunities & Challenges of De-stressing Learning Process
15 minutes
How might social changes ahead lead to more stress or less
pressure for learners, parents and teachers?
How might we integrate cognitive (e.g. mindfulness)
or non-cognitive approaches to reduce the pressure associated
with our changing world?
Future of Learning Implications of Emerging Trends & Issues
Overwhelmed Life Adaptive Learning Civic Culture
Assumption: The Era of Connected Data & Adaptive Analytics will transform notions of Lifelong Learning
By 2020, people will manage their own learning graphs and expect connected experiences from schools and beyond
Anonymous Web
1993
How the Web is Changing Social Norms & Culture
Social Web
2008
Everyone knows I’m working on some personal growth issues
Assumption: The web is becoming a platform for managing our lives & personal behavior change.
Where is Learning Data Stream?
Personal Data Revolution, Meet Lifelong Learning
Changing Distribution‘Online’ vs ‘Offline’
Adapting for Outcomes ‘Software-Guided’ or not
What is the new assumption for learning & work?
Adaptive Elements
Mastery Mystery Motivation
Adaptive Wellness
Adaptive Physical Activities
Adaptive Learning
Adaptive Learning Platforms
Finding Flow – Different Pace, Different Paths
Emerging Standards: Connecting Learning to Business Challenges
Experience Tracking“I did this…”
Learning Record Store
=Experiences Capacity &
Readiness Collaboration &
Social Learning On-demand
Assistance
Beyond SCORM: Experience API (Tincan)
Adaptive Learning
Vision of a Learning Graph
What I know…What I am trying to Learn more about… How well I know it…
Trend: Increase in non-traditional forms of data
Trend: Data Models for Connected Data
Graph-Database = Connections are Most Important
Entity (Node)
RelationshipRelationship
RelationshipEntity (Node)
Link Graph
Social Graph
Interest Graph
Health Graph
Learning Graph
Learning in the Age of Graph Databases
Connected Data = Drives Learning Experiences
???
A
Neo4j = Graph Database
Garry’s Connections via Lisa Bodell
Learn by Connecting Things
Watch this other director…
Watch my re-mix of this film…
Read this novel…
Basic Level
In Progress
Expert Level
History of Jazz
Danny Hillis = Learning Map
Preparing Catlin Gabel for Age of Adaptive Learning
Exploratory Phase: 2015-2018
Assess Platforms, Tools & Content Integration
Understand Student Needs & Adoption Dynamics
Build Roadmap & Monitor Case Studies for Distance & In-class
2015-2020
Describe Vision –Opportunities & Challenges of Adaptive (Formative) Learning
15 minutes
What are the potential risks, rewards and responsibilities associated with a vision of adaptive learning experiences?
Overwhelmed Life Adaptive Learning Civic Culture
Assumption: Localization shaped by a more networked civic culture will bring a new set of gaps and divides
The Buzz on the Future of Community Engagement
Civicware
Active Aging
Innovation Districts
Local 2.0 Place-making
Sharing Economy
ParticipatoryPlanning
Social Entrepreneurship
Alternative Crypto Currencies
Third Places
Design Thinking
Crowdfunding
The Unintended Consequences of Localization
Anticipating Pull and Push Factors of Economic Localization
Teaching Students to Use a Critical Lens on Localization Efforts
So What?
Culture Shaping
Formal Planning
Trends & Issues Mapped Against Readiness & Urgency
Re
adin
ess
Urgency
Not Urgent Urgent –Critical
Not Ready
Ready
SomewhatReady
Important
Start & Support a Catlin Gabel Signals Team
Start a Signals Team(Social, Technology, Environment, Economy, Politics)
Create Monthly or Quarterly Programs to Share Insights
Host a Portland’s Edu ‘Failfaire’ in October 2015 Create a Culture of
Smart Risk-taking
Lower Barriers to Pilots & Partnerships
Invite students to deliver stories at ‘Failfaire’
Questions, Comments, Challenges…
Forecast based Thinking:• Confidence in assumptions• Stable marketplace/culture• Focus on ‘Extrapolation’
(What should happen)
Scenario Thinking:• Unsure of right assumptions• Markets shaped by uncertainty • Focus on ‘Discontinuities’
(What could happen)
S.T.E.E.P. CategoriesSociety Technology Environment Economics Politics
Cone of Plausibility Sources of Change
I am an Artist living through eras of…Face to Face Printed & Recorded
Broadcast Media (Audio / Visual) Social Media (Digital/Networked)
I am a teacher living
through an era shaped by…
Networked Culture
Globalization
Brain Science & Mindfulness
Knowledge Work
Learning Data & Analytics
Civic & Political Fragmentation
Demographic Change Society Confronting
Wicked Problems
Additional Resource Slides
Civicware: Engagement & Data-driven Insights(Tools & Databases)
Elevating Understanding of Key Indicators
Elevating Understanding of Key Indicators
Liberal Arts FoundationGraduates Who Thrive at Intersections of Change
Future of Community Service & Engagement
Data Science Analytics User Experience Design Adaptive Design Behavior Change Neuroscience Policy Civicware Leadership Art Natural Resources Sensing Technologies Software Robotics
Aging Demographics Millennial Family Formation Youth Culture Urban Studies South-to-South Economy Cities Health-Wellness Food Textiles – Clothing Manufacturing Insurance Transportation–Mobility Education – Training Small Farming
12 major areas of social change, including: Education, Youth Development, Health, Culture & Identity and Critical Human Needs
The Impact Genome Project™ (IGP) is a systematic way to codify and quantify the factors that drive social outcomes.
We recently conducted two months of fieldwork in order to update the algorithm that we use to estimate the impact of one of our products, Brilliance, and we hope you might be as interested to hear the underlying reasons as we were. The end result was a 28% reduction in the three numbers that we track to measure the impact of Brilliance, but a significant increase in the confidence we have in our estimations and a much more nuanced understanding of how Brilliance is being used in hospitals.
Social Impact & Data Science
Behavior Change & Health Outcomes
“EveryDose, EveryDay” initiativeCenters for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Since 1990 - East, West
Beyond 2020 - South, South
1950 - 1990 - West, West
The Big Stories: Aging & Rise of Youth Culture
Demographics 101
Youth Culture & Population Pyramids
Japan
Global Spectrum of Young Audiences
U.S. vs Nigeria