targeting double dividends in indo-gangetic basin: improving water productivity and alleviating...
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Presented at the 2nd Phase Planning and Review Workshop of the Indo-Ganges Basin Focal Project, 24-25 February, 2009, Haryana, IndiaTRANSCRIPT
Welcome to BFP-IGB Meeting24-25 Feb.2009, Surajkund, India
Targeting Double Dividends in Indo-Gangetic Basin:
Improving Water Productivity and Alleviating Poverty
AVHRR-LULCSub-basin boundary
Content
• Purpose of the Workshop
• Logic and Structure of BFPs
• Brief tour of the Indus-Gangetic realities
• Brief review of WP content
-WP1- Water Poverty
-WP2- Water Resources
-WP3- Water Productivity
-WP4-Institutions
-WP5- Interventions….Change
-WP6- Knowledge Sharing and Impact
• Structure of the Meeting
Purpose of the WorkshopPurpose of the Workshop
••Update and SharingUpdate and Sharing
--WhatWhat’’s been done in 2008 and befores been done in 2008 and before
••Reflection & DiscussionReflection & Discussion
--Are we moving on the right track with the right speed?Are we moving on the right track with the right speed?
--What works, What doesnWhat works, What doesn’’tt
--How the project can create the desired impact?How the project can create the desired impact?
••Plan for the FuturePlan for the Future
--What we will do in 2009 and beyond?What we will do in 2009 and beyond?
Outputs need to delivered and the impact createdOutputs need to delivered and the impact created…………
Water productivityCrop water productivity, kg/m3
Water value-adding $/m3
Net value/costs
Water availabilityClimate water account
Water allocation water hazards
Logic and Structure
What is the water balance?How well is the water used?
Policies and InstitutionsWater
Water rights water policies
Governance Power
Farming
Land rights
Infrastructure
Supply chainsWho ‘handles’ the water? Who enables farmer to improve productivity?
Poverty analysisRural poverty details
Water-food related factorsWhat links water, food and poverty?
InterventionsWEAP Trend analysis
Land use change analysisWhat are foreseeable risks and opportunities for change?
BackgroundDemography Rural poverty
Economic overview AgricultureWhat is the overall situation?
Targeting Double Dividends in IndoTargeting Double Dividends in Indo--Gangetic Basin: Gangetic Basin: Improving Water Productivity and Alleviating PovertyImproving Water Productivity and Alleviating Poverty
Indian States Hunger
Score
Bihar 27 Haryana 20
Punjab 14 Rajasthan 21
Uttar Pradesh 22 West Bengal 21 Madhya Pradesh 31
Countries Rate Scaling Performance
China 7.1 5.0-9.9 MODERATE
Nepal 20.6 Pakistan 21.7
India 23.7 Bangladesh 25.2
20-29.9 ALARMING
Ethiopia 31 > 30 EXTREMELY ALARMING
Source:Welt Hunger Hilfe, IFPRI, Concern Worldwide (October 2008)
ACTION FIELDS OUTPUTS
Poverty Analysis
• Mapping sub- national poverty
• Dynamics of spatial and temporal variation of poverty
• Gender inequality and water use
Water Availability
access analysis
• Water accounting in the sub-basins of the four
countries
• Detailed water balances for representative sub-basins
Water Productivity
analysis
• Spatial variation of agriculture water productivity
• Access spatial linkages with agriculture input, socio-
economic and environmental factors and poverty
• Sub basin assessment of water productivity assessment
Water Institutions
analysis
• Comparative assessment of existing institutions and
policies
• Pro-poor Agriculture Water Management (AWM)
strategies
• Energy- irrigation nexus and fishery cultivation in the
eastern basin
• Transboundary issues and legislating context
Intervention analysis • Overview of interventions in productivity improvements
and poverty alleviation
• Impact assessment of potential intervention
Knowledge base
platform
• Developing web portal for accumulation and sharing of
existing and generated knowledge
• Developing decision support system
• Targeted dissemination and learning from common
experiences
"What IGB - BFP will do"
“Putting Action Fields together”
KHARIFKHARIF RABIRABI
Trends in water productivity in rice, Bangladesh Districts (1968-2004)
“Preliminary Results”
“Challenges in IGB”
FOCUS Low water productivity abreast with high poverty and environmental degradationCHALLENGES
•High heterogeneity•Transboundary issues•High dependency on groundwater•Dependency on glacier/ice melt & climate change impacts•Demographic pressure•High rural population & dependency on natural resources
CONSTRAINTS•Lack of effective institutions•Poor information base•Inadequate targeted interventions•Availability and accessibility of information
TARGETS•Water-land-gender-poverty relationships•Assessing water supply and demand•Mapping water productivity•Setting the institutional frame for an efficient and equitable water use•Identifying potential interventions•Generating Knowledge platform
OUTCOMES Making informed decisions for improving water productivity, alleviating poverty, and reducing human deprivation
IGB Profile• Basin area 225 million-ha• Population (2001) 747 million• Percentage rural population (2001)India 75Pakistan 68Nepal 86Bangladesh 80• Percentage of population below Poverty line (2000) 30.5• Net cropped area 114 million-ha• Water use in agriculture 91.4%
“Indo-Gangetic Basin” “Hunger Index of IGB Countries”
Parameters Bangla. India Nepal Pakistan
Acc. to improved water resources,%
74 86 90 91
Acc.to improved sanitation, % 39 33 35 59
Per cap. Electricity consumption, kWh
145 594 91 493
Popu. Below national poverty line
49.8 28.6 30.9 32.6
Agriculture, % of GDP 20.1 18.3 38.2 21.6
Per capita GDP (USD) 406 640 252 632
IRWR (m3/cap./yr) 688 1149 7539 325
SocioSocio--economic and water status of economic and water status of
IG Basin countriesIG Basin countries
Parameter Indus GBM
Resource Stress (scarcity, variation)
0.49 0.39
Development Pressure (exploitation, DW inaccessibility)
0.51 0.17
Ecological Insecurity ( water pollution, ecosystem deterioration)
0.80 0.57
Management Challenges (WU inefficiency, Sani. inaccess., Conflict manage)
0.57 0.65
Vulnerability Index 0.59 0.45
GDP/m3 of water use 3.34* 3.47*
*Global average:$8.6/m3; Avg five top food producers(Bra,Chi,Fra,Mex,US):$ 23.8/m3
Source: Babel and Wahid(2008)( Freshwater under Threat: South Asia)
Freshwater under ThreatFreshwater under Threat
January, 1984 (Rabi crop) May, 1984 (driest period) September, 1984 (Kharif crop-wettest period)
January, 2000 (Rabi crop) May, 2000 (driest period) September, 2000 (kharif crop-wettest period)
Scaled
NDVI
Biomass Dynamics in Indus and Ganges
Basin level scale using AVHRR Mega Dataset
Flooding in the Ganges Basin Flooding in the Ganges Basin
Damages Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan
Deaths 52,033 55,656 5,637 8,877
Population affected (million)
304.63 763.99 2.98 37.69
Homeless4219724
13210000
84925 4234415
Injured 102390 1561 1072 1981
Estimated Cost (US$ M)
12038.4 29417.2 0.977 2865.2Period
60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 00-08
Nu
mb
er o
f fl
ood
even
ts
0
50
100
150
200
250Eastern Asia
SouthEast Asia
South Asia
West Asia
WP1: Poverty and Water Poverty AnalysisWP1: Poverty and Water Poverty Analysis
UpaliUpali, Stefanos, Gias, Stefanos, Gias……..Madar..Madar
Poverty analysis package reviews and Poverty analysis package reviews and
analyzes the existing poverty and wateranalyzes the existing poverty and water--
povertypoverty--gender information in order to bridge gender information in order to bridge
the gap/s between aggregate and specific the gap/s between aggregate and specific
analyses of poverty; illustrate the links analyses of poverty; illustrate the links
between interbetween inter--sectoral uses of water and sectoral uses of water and
links between water and other determinants links between water and other determinants
of poverty.of poverty.
Trends of Poverty Trends of Poverty
Spatial variation of rural poverty in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal in 2000
Water, Land and Poverty NexusWater, Land and Poverty Nexus
0
20
40
60
80
100
Pu
nja
b
Him
ach
al
Pra
de
sh
Ha
rya
na
Ke
rala
An
dh
ra P
rad
esh
Gu
jara
t
Ra
jas
tha
n
Ka
rna
tak
a
Ta
mil
Na
du
Ma
ha
rash
tra
Utt
ar
Pra
de
sh
We
st B
en
ga
l
Ma
dh
ya P
rad
esh
Sik
kim
Aru
na
cha
l Pra
de
sh
As
sam
Bih
ar
Ori
ssa
HC
R a
nd
% A
rea (
%)
HCR 1999-2000
Net irrigatedarea-% of net
sown area
Groundwaterirrigated area
- % of total
Rural head count ratio and net irrigated and groundwater irrigated
area
Rural head count ratio across land holding classes
0
15
30
45
60
La
nd
less
Ma
rgin
al
Sm
all
Sm
all-
me
diu
m
Me
diu
m
La
rge
Ve
ry
larg
e
Land holding size
HC
R (
%)
India Pakistan Bangladesh Nepal
Rural head count ratio across lad holding classes
WP2: Water AvailabilityWP2: Water Availability
LunaLuna, Upali, Asad, Ambili , Upali, Asad, Ambili …………..
Water availability
( How much and where?)
Climate ( and its Change) Water account
Water allocation Water hazards
What is the water balance?
Whole Basin Indus and Gangetic Basin Sub-Basins
Major challenge: inaccessible river flow data, transboundary nature
• PODIUM-Sim for the whole IG Basin
•WEAP Modelling for individual Ganges and Indus basins and scenario building
•SWAT/ SWAP Models for Sub-Basins
IGB basins Per capita water resources (m3/person)
1990 2000 2025 2050
Indus- India 97 2487 2109 1590 1732Indus- Pakistan 190 1713 1332 761 545Ganga - India 663 1831 1490 969 773
TRWR
(km3)
Water Resources Indus Ganges Total IGB (India)
Average annual surface water potential (km3) 73.3 523.0 596.3
Estimated Utilizable flow excluding ground water (km3) 46.0 250.0 296.0
Total replenishable ground water resources (km3) 26.5 171.0 197.5
Per Capita available water (m3) 2382 1951 2166.5
River Basin
Alluvium/ Unconsolidated Rocks
Hard Rocks
Total
Indus 1,334.9 3.3 1,338.2
Ganga 7,769.1 65 7,834.1
Static fresh ground water resource (km3) of IG Basin
Water resources potential and availability of the Indian portion of IGB
TRWR and per capita water resources in the Indus and Gangetic
Study the effect of upstream water resource development and as well as the influence of land use change on the hydrology and water balance of the Gorai River Catchment
Gorai-River Catchment
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Flo
w (
MC
M)
1965-75 1990-99
Average monthly inflow to the Gorai Catchment measured at Gorai railway-bridge at two time periods
WP3: Water Productivity AnalysisWP3: Water Productivity Analysis
Cai, BharatCai, Bharat, Upali, Gias, Susana, Asad, Upali, Gias, Susana, Asad
Water Productivity• Basin performance on agril. water
utlisation- Crop (livestock, fish ) water productivity kg/m3
- Water value-adding $/m3
- Net value/costs
Factors affecting water productivity
Scope for WP Improvement
How well is the water used?
A “crop dominance map” of namely year 2008 shows major crops rice and wheat area, and other mixed croplands. Watering sources are also given for IGB map.
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Crop Dominance Map
Water Productivity Maps
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Rice productivity (kg/m3)
Mean AVG SDV Min Max
0.618 0.618 0.306 0.09 2.5
Other Studies completed, ongoing…….
• Spatio-temporal analysis of district level rice productivity in Bangladesh
• Water productivity in Rechna-Doab in Pakistan
• Fish water productivity and poverty in Bangladesh
• District-level foodgrain water productivity for India
WP4: Institutional AnalysisWP4: Institutional Analysis
( ( TushaarTushaar, Aditi, Dhruba, Sanjiv, Aditi, Dhruba, Sanjiv……RPS)RPS)
Policies and Institutions
Water
Water rights Water policies
Governance Energy policies
Farming
Land rights Infrastructure
Supply chains
Who ‘handles’ the water? What enables farmer to improve productivity?
Understanding the impact of selected economic and legal variables
8-10 m ha
3-5
Impact of rising diesel
prices on agricultural water use
Extent and cost of different sources of irrigation in India
Additional Studies……
• Water Control and Land-Lease Markets in India and Nepal
• Policy and Legal Analysis for IG basin Countries
WP5: Analysis of InterventionsWP5: Analysis of Interventions
((BharatBharat, Rajinder,Cai,Asad, Gias..), Rajinder,Cai,Asad, Gias..)
Set of physical, institutional
and policy level
interventions having
potential of significantly
improving productivity and
livelihoods
•Water allocation analysis
•Land use change analysis
•Best water management
practices analysis
Some potential interventionsSome potential interventions………………....
• Resource conservation (including laser land leveling) technologies in western IG basin
•Lining of water courses in IBIS (Pakistan)
•Multiple water use systems in Eastern Gangetic basin
•Improved fisheries management in Bangladesh
•Making optimum use of areas afflicted with salinity and waterlogging
•Potential of improved water management practices in
Eastern Gangetic basin
WP6: Knowledge Management and Impact WP6: Knowledge Management and Impact
Pathways Pathways (Matin, Bharat and all)(Matin, Bharat and all)
Component Function
Data Management Data acquisition, Collation of spatial data, prepare metadata
Access to existing knowledge
Knowledge harvesting, Sharing
Knowledge Development
Investigation, analysis, synthesis
Application Informed Decision making
Knowledge
Dissemination
Publication, communication, Knowledge portal development
Project Work Packages - Relationship
WP-6: Knowledge management
WP-5: InterventionAnalysis
WP-1: Understand the nature and location
of water poverty
WP-2: Understand water availability
WP-3: Understand water productivity across
the basin
WP-4: InstitutionalAnalysis
IMPACT PATHWAY – NETWORK MAP – Nepal
IWMI
CPWF
☺
WB, UN UNDP
2 �
DOI/CBS/DIHM/NARC
1 ☺
UNIV’s☺
FO/WUA/WG1 ☺
Farmers/ WG1 ☺
NGO’s/Consultants
1 ☺
PC Nepal
3 �
WECS2 �
District level GO/INGO’s2 �
PSC
RFAI
2 ☺
MOWR2 �
GWB
2 ☺
MOLD
2 ☺
WSDA
2 ☺
MOA
2 ☺
Green – Funding agency, Blue – Research partner, Red- Scale out of products on the ground, Black – Scale up of products at the policy level
☺-Receptive�-Neutral�-No so receptive
Numbers show degree of importance for change
Structure of the MeetingStructure of the Meeting
• After this Session, session on Water Poverty followed by lunch
• In all there shall be six sessions devoted to each of the work packages
•In each sessions there shall be few in-house presentations and some very interesting presentations by the potential partners.
•Style- highly relaxed and informal
•Today evening- we shall have a relaxation hour followed by dinner
•Tomorrow morning the sessions shall begin at 0900 and hope to be completed by 1630 hours.
Tushaar SHAH
�Taming the Anarchy:Groundwater Governance
in South Asia
� Appointment as IWMI Fellow
Congrats!!!
Madar SamadMadar Samad
RegionalDirector:
SouthASIA
UPALI AMARASINGHE
Promotion ,Publication and Providential Windfall $$$$$$
ADITI MUKHERJEE
GDN Award, Canberra
For Best Research Paper
AndMainstreaming
with IWMI !!!!!!!
Peter McCornick and Alok Sikka
Moving from BFP-IGB Basin Coordinator to NRAAI
From IWMI with love to
Duke University,
NC
THANK YOU VERY MUCH !!!