targeting your voter universe
DESCRIPTION
Power Point presentation on find your voters and getting them to the pollsTRANSCRIPT
Targeting Your Voter Universe
Paid for by Democracy for America, www.democracyforamerica.com, and not authorized by any
candidate or candidate’s committee.
Field Plan = Blueprint for Victory
A well-planned & executed
field program can helpincrease
turnout by 3-5%.
Goals
Strategy
Tactics
Timelines & Benchmarks
All Registered Voters
Target Universe of Voters
Supporters (1’s) Undecided (2,3’s) Haters (4,5’s)
Persuasion (2,3,4’s)
GOTV Universe
Likely Supporters Not ID’d
No More Contact
Field Plan = Blueprint for Victory
Calculating Your
Win Number
(Goal)
Targeting Your
Voters (Strategy)
Contacting voters
(Tactics)
Timelines and
Benchmarks
Finding Your Vote Goal
Win Number = (Projected Turnout / 2) + 1
Vote Goal = Projected Turnout x .52
Step 2: Set Your Goals
Step 1: Project the turnout% Turnout in last similar election(s)
Current number of registered voters
xProjected
Turnout
=
Step 3: Write down your goals!
Calculate Your Vote Goals
Current Registration
Turnout % in last similar election
TurnoutEstimate
for currentelection
WinNumber 50% + 1
Safe Margin
52%
Precinct # 1 740 32%
Precinct # 2 446 55%
Precinct # 3 463 51%
Precinct # 4 599 43%
Precinct # 5 686 42%
Precinct # 6 1002 48%
DistrictTotals
3936 44%
237
246237
258
289
481
1748
120 124
124 128120 124
130 135
146 151
242 251
882 913
NOTE: Always round up for turnout estimates – even with “.1” You’ll always need a full person’s vote – a fraction of a person can’t vote. It’s safer to make it harder on yourself.
4 ways to target voters
Modeling
Constituencies & Demographics
Geographically
Voter History & Identification
Targeting with Voter History
Strong Supporter (1)
Undecided (2, 3, 4)
Strong Opponent (5)
Always Vote
Supporters likely to vote
→ Base building
Undecideds likely to Vote
→ ID, Persuasion
Conserve resources → dump
Sometimes Vote
Supporters less likely to vote
→ ID, GOTV
Undecideds less likely to vote
→ ID, Persuasion, GOTV
Conserve resources → dump
Never Vote
Consider resources & vote goal → various treaments
Consider resources & vote goal
→ various treaments
Conserve resources → dump
Partisanship
Vot
ing
His
tory
Democratic Performance Index (DPI)
‘Percentage of the vote a Democratic candidate can expect in an average election’
Based on voting history NOT voter registration
How to calculate D.P.I
About NCEC
Democratic % in similar election # 1
+ Democratic % in similar election # 2
+ Democratic % in similar election # 3
/ 3 = D.P.I.{ }
Calculate Your Dem & Persuasion Turnout
D.P.I. %Est.Dem.
Turnout
Vote Difference
Persuasion %
Persuadable Voters
Precinct # 1 69% 12%
Precinct # 2 21% 8%
Precinct # 3 36% 33%
Precinct # 4 43% 19%
Precinct # 5 38% 39%
Precinct # 6 48% 21%
DistrictTotals
43% 22%
163 +39 28
-77 19
-39 78
-25 49-42 112
-21 101
-165 382
51
85
110109
230
748
NOTE: You’ll want to round down for Est. Dem turnout and persuadable voters . Again, you want to make it harder on yourself.
Prioritize Your Precincts
DEM BASE PRECINCTS- D.P.I. = greater than 65%- Identification, voter registration, volunteer recruitment, GOTV
REP BASE PRECINCTS- D.P.I. = less than 35%- Lowest priority, highly targeted contact only
SWING PRECINCTS - D.P.I. = between 35% and 65%- Identification, Persuasion & GOTV
Calculate Your Final Vote Goals & Rankings
Final Vote GoalsPersuasion & ID Ranking
GOTV Ranking
Precinct # 1
Precinct # 2
Precinct # 3
Precinct # 4
Precinct # 5
Precinct # 6
DistrictTotals
198
54
109
121
147
284
913
2nd
1st
3rd
4th
5th
6th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
Targeting by Constituency
➔ Look at your candidate and message
➔ Look at your identified supporters
➔ Meet with community leaders early
➔ Build bases of support➔ Seek endorsements➔ Target niche media