taspro update - phintraco sekuritas...pt astra international, tbk - asii 0 7450 daily change -1.00 %...

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Global Macroeconomic Updates - as of 12-7-2019 GDP yoy GDP qoq Interest Rate Inflation Jobless Debt/GDP China 6.40% 1.40% 4.35% 2.70% 3.67% 47.60% Japan 0.90% 0.60% -0.10% 0.70% 2.40% 253.00% Hong Kong 0.60% 1.30% 2.75% 2.80% 2.80% 38.40% Malaysia 4.50% 1.10% 3.00% 0.20% 3.40% 51.80% Singapore 1.20% 3.80% 1.88% 0.90% 2.20% 112.20% Thailand 2.80% 1.00% 1.75% 0.87% 0.90% 41.80% Indonesia 5.07% -0.52% 6.00% 3.28% 5.01% 29.80% U.K. 1.80% 0.50% 0.75% 2.00% 3.80% 84.70% Germany 0.70% 0.40% 0.00% 1.60% 3.10% 60.90% France 1.20% 0.30% 0.00% 1.20% 8.70% 98.40% Euro Area 1.20% 0.40% 0.00% 1.20% 7.60% 85.10% U.S. 3.20% 3.10% 2.50% 1.60% 3.70% 105.40% Source : tradingeconomics.com Jakarta Composite Index - Daily Chart Sectoral Indices - as of 31-5-2019 Value % Monthly Agriculture 1378.12 -1.23% Basic Ind. 798.17 -0.48% Consumer 2339.10 -3.14% Finance 1320.42 1.45% Infra. 1220.42 -1.47% Manufacture 1490.68 -1.32% Mining 1633.77 -2.40% Property 494.84 1.98% Trade 815.84 1.29% Source : IDX Table 3 Shares Recommendation - as of 11-6-2019 Last* % Monthly % YTD Fair Prc. Recomendation ASII 7450 -2.11 15.85 8,795 Buy CPIN 5250 8.53 46.94 6185 Buy LSIP 1120 -0.02 29.53 1595 Buy Source : IDX | processed Domestic Macroeconomics Value GDP Q1-18 (yoy) 5.07% GDP Q1-18 (qoq) -0.52% Export Growth (yoy) - Jun‘19 -8.98% Import Growth (yoy) - Jul‘19 2.80% BI 7-Day Repo Rate - Jun‘19 6.00% Inflation Rate - Jun‘19 (mtm) 0.55% Inflation Rate - Jun‘19 (yoy) 3.28% Inflation Core - Jun‘19 (yoy) 3.25% LPS - Bank Umum (Rp) 7.00% LPS - Bank Umum (USD) 2.25% LPS - BPR 9.50% F. Reserved - Jun‘19 (US$ B) 123.82 Source : BI | BPS Taspro Update Phintraco Sekuritas | Taspro Update 2019 Hal 1 Juli - Agustus 2019 4 1 8 October 15 22 29 5 12 November 19 26 3 10 December 17 26 2 7 2019 14 21 28 4 11 February 18 25 4 March 11 18 25 1 April 8 15 22 29 6 May 13 20 27 10 June 17 24 1 July 8 15 22 0 50 100 0 50 100 Stochastic Oscillator (63.9680) 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 x1000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 x1000 Volume (17,290,000) -150 -140 -130 -120 -110 -100 -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 5550 5600 5650 5700 5750 5800 5850 5900 5950 6000 6050 6100 6150 6200 6250 6300 6350 6400 6450 6500 6550 6600 6650 6700 IHSG (6,414.20, 6,425.32, 6,369.50, 6,373.35, -43.7207), MACD (42.2746)

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Page 1: Taspro Update - PHINTRACO SEKURITAS...PT Astra International, Tbk - ASII 0 7450 Daily Change -1.00 % Weekly Change 4.18 % Monthly Change -2.11 % YTD Change 15.85 % 52w Highest 6500

Global Macroeconomic Updates - as of 12-7-2019

GDP yoy GDP qoq Interest Rate Inflation Jobless Debt/GDP

China 6.40% 1.40% 4.35% 2.70% 3.67% 47.60%

Japan 0.90% 0.60% -0.10% 0.70% 2.40% 253.00%

Hong Kong 0.60% 1.30% 2.75% 2.80% 2.80% 38.40%

Malaysia 4.50% 1.10% 3.00% 0.20% 3.40% 51.80%

Singapore 1.20% 3.80% 1.88% 0.90% 2.20% 112.20%

Thailand 2.80% 1.00% 1.75% 0.87% 0.90% 41.80%

Indonesia 5.07% -0.52% 6.00% 3.28% 5.01% 29.80%

U.K. 1.80% 0.50% 0.75% 2.00% 3.80% 84.70%

Germany 0.70% 0.40% 0.00% 1.60% 3.10% 60.90%

France 1.20% 0.30% 0.00% 1.20% 8.70% 98.40%

Euro Area 1.20% 0.40% 0.00% 1.20% 7.60% 85.10%

U.S. 3.20% 3.10% 2.50% 1.60% 3.70% 105.40%

Source : tradingeconomics.com

Jakarta Composite Index - Daily Chart

Sectoral Indices - as of 31-5-2019

Value % Monthly

Agriculture 1378.12 -1.23%

Basic Ind. 798.17 -0.48%

Consumer 2339.10 -3.14%

Finance 1320.42 1.45%

Infra. 1220.42 -1.47%

Manufacture 1490.68 -1.32%

Mining 1633.77 -2.40%

Property 494.84 1.98%

Trade 815.84 1.29%

Source : IDX

Table 3 Shares Recommendation - as of 11-6-2019

Last* % Monthly % YTD Fair Prc. Recomendation

ASII 7450 -2.11 15.85 8,795 Buy

CPIN 5250 8.53 46.94 6185 Buy

LSIP 1120 -0.02 29.53 1595 Buy

Source : IDX | processed

Domestic Macroeconomics

Value

GDP Q1-18 (yoy) 5.07%

GDP Q1-18 (qoq) -0.52%

Export Growth (yoy) - Jun‘19 -8.98%

Import Growth (yoy) - Jul‘19 2.80%

BI 7-Day Repo Rate - Jun‘19 6.00%

Inflation Rate - Jun‘19 (mtm) 0.55%

Inflation Rate - Jun‘19 (yoy) 3.28%

Inflation Core - Jun‘19 (yoy) 3.25%

LPS - Bank Umum (Rp) 7.00%

LPS - Bank Umum (USD) 2.25%

LPS - BPR 9.50%

F. Reserved - Jun‘19 (US$ B) 123.82

Source : BI | BPS

Taspro Update

Phintraco Sekuritas | Taspro Update 2019 Hal 1

Juli - Agustus 2019

September

17 24 1 8

October

15 22 29 5 12

November

19 26 3 10

December

17 26 2 7

2019

14 21 28 4 11

February

18 25 4

March

11 18 25 1

April

8 15 22 29 6

May

13 20 27 10

June

17 24 1

July

8 15 22

0

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100Stochastic Oscillator (63.9680)

10000150002000025000300003500040000

x1000 10000150002000025000300003500040000

x1000

Volume (17,290,000)

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6700IHSG (6,414.20, 6,425.32, 6,369.50, 6,373.35, -43.7207), MACD (42.2746)

Page 2: Taspro Update - PHINTRACO SEKURITAS...PT Astra International, Tbk - ASII 0 7450 Daily Change -1.00 % Weekly Change 4.18 % Monthly Change -2.11 % YTD Change 15.85 % 52w Highest 6500

Major Shareholders

%

Jardin Cycle & Carriage Ltd 50.11%

Budi Setiadharma 0.02%

Anthony John Liddell Nightinggale 0.02%

Prijono Sugiarto 0.01%

Gidion Hasan 0.00%

Suparno Djasmin 0.00%

Public <5% 49.84%

Total 100%

Source : www.astra.co.id | IDX | as of 12-7-2019

PT Astra International, Tbk - ASII

PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) didirikan pada tahun 1957 sebagai perusahaan

perdagangan umum. ASII menerapkan bisnis berbasis sinergi dan

terdiversifikasi yaitu Otomotif, Jasa Keuangan, Alat Berat, Pertambangan,

Konstruksi dan Energi , Agribisnis, Infrastruktur dan Logistik,Teknologi Informasi

dan Properti. Beberapa produk otmotif dari ASII adalah Toyota, Daihatsu, Isuzu,

UD Trucks, Peugeot, dan BMW . Produk otomotif ASII baik kendaraan roda dua

maupun roda 4 merupakan pemegang pangsa pasar terbesar di Indonesia. ASII

mulai mencatatkan sahamnya di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada 10 September 1989.

Kinerja ASII per Maret 2019 : ASII membukukan pertumbuhan pendapatan

sebesar 6.78% yoy menjadi Rp59.61 triliun pada Q1-2019. Sejalan dengan

pencapaian tersebut, ASII membukukan pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar

4.72% yoy menjadi Rp5.22 triliun. Segmen bisnis automotive, financial services

dan heavy equipment, mining, construction & energy menjadi segmen bisnis

yang paling profitable. Kontribusi laba bersih dari ketiga segmen tersebut

mencapai Rp5.13 triliun atau 98.45% dari total laba bersih ASII. Segmen bisnis

lain yang menarik untuk dicermati adalah infrastructure and logistic yang

mencangkup penyediaan jasa operator jalan tol. ASII memiliki konsesi 302 ruas

tol yang merupakan bagian dari tol Trans-Java. Segmen bisnis ini membukukan

laba bersih sebesar Rp16 miliar pada Q1-2019, dibandingkan rugi bersih

sebesar Rp23 miliar pada Q1-2018.

Kinerja positif bisnis heavy equipment, mining, construction & energy

diperkirakan berlanjut di sisa tahun 2019, mempertimbangkan kontribusi dari

tambang emas Martebe, Tapanuli Selatan, Sumatera Utara di akhir tahun 2018.

Tambang tersebut memiliki kapasitas produksi sebesar 350,000-400,000

ounces. Sementara segmen bisnis automotif diperkirakan masih menjadi

kontributor utama pendapatan dan laba ASII. Akan tetapi, segmen ini dibayangi

oleh rendahnya permintaan, terutama pada kendaraan roda empat (mobi). Hal

ini terefleksi pada penurunan volume penjualan mobil sebesar 13% yoy

menjadi 254,000 unit pada periode Januari-Maret 2019. Meski demikian, ASII

mampu mempertahankan posisinya sebagai market leader untuk mobil (market

share 53%) dan motor (market share 75%) di Indonesia.

Shares Info

Value

Share Code ASII

Sector Miscellaneous Industry

Sub Sector

Listing Date September 10, 1989

IPO Price 14,850

Listed Shares (million) 40,483

Market Cap.* (Rp billion) 301,598

Source : www.astra.co.id | IDX | as of 12-7-2019

Phintraco Sekuritas | Taspro Update 2019 Hal 5

Table 2. Shares Comparison - as of Mar-2019 (Rp billion)

Last* %YTD 2019H 2019L BV EPS %DPR PER PBV

ASII 7275 -10.60 8475 6700 4460 516 40.00 11.12 1.64

IMAS 2610 24.55 3470 2110 3784 912.72 12.79 2.32 0.69

GJTL 745 0.00 820 610 1730 193.96 N.A 3.84 0.43

Source : IDX | RTI | processed | *as of 12-7-2019 | **annualized

Table 1. Performance Comparison - as of Mar-2019 (Rp billion)

Assets Liabilities Equity Revenue Net Profit NPM DER ROA* ROE*

ASII 357,116 176,560 180,550 59,607 6,665 11.18 0.98 7.47 14.77

IMAS 15,069 31,545 10,464 18,815 3,112 16.54 3.01 7.41 29.74

GJTL 20,005 13,978 6,027 16,152 676 4.18 2.32 3.38 11.21

Source : IDX | RTI | processed | *annualized | as of 12-7-2019

BMW

Source : www.astra.co.id

Production Line

Source : www.astra.co.id

Automotive & Components

Page 3: Taspro Update - PHINTRACO SEKURITAS...PT Astra International, Tbk - ASII 0 7450 Daily Change -1.00 % Weekly Change 4.18 % Monthly Change -2.11 % YTD Change 15.85 % 52w Highest 6500

PT Astra International, Tbk - ASII

7450 Daily Change -1.00 %

Weekly Change 4.18 %

Monthly Change -2.11 %

YTD Change 15.85 %

52w Highest 6500

52w Lowest 8775

Source : BEI, as of 12-7-2019

Resistance [7750] Pivot [7400] Support [7150] 3-month target [8025-8300] : ASII

tengah berada dalam fase konsolidasi dalam rentang support-resistace 7150-

7750. Akumulasi beli dapat dilakukan di atas pivot 7400. Resistance breakout

pada level 7750 menjadi sinyal kuat bullish reversal continuation dengan target

level di kisaran 8025-8300.

Phintraco Sekuritas | Taspro Update 2019 Hal 6

Table 1. Shares Comparison (Rp million)

BALANCE SHEET (’000 IDR) Dec-2016 Dec-2017 Dec-2018 Mar-2019

Cash and Equivalent 29,357,000 31,574,000 25,193 ,000 30,079,000

Assets 261,855,000 295,830,000 344,711,000 35,116,000

Liabilities 121,949,000 139,325 ,000 170,348 ,000 176,562,000

Equity 139,906,000 156,505 ,000 174,363 ,000 180,554,000

INCOME STATEMENTS Dec-2016 Dec-2017 Dec-2018 Mar-2019

Revenues 181,084,000 206,057,000 239,205,000 59,607,000

Gross Profit 36,432,000 42,368,000 50,769,000 12,612,000

Operating Profit

Net Profit 18,302,000 23,165,000 27,372,000 6,665

Net Profit Attributable 15,156,000 18,847,000 21,673,000 5,215

RATIOS Dec-2016 Dec-2017 Dec-2018 Mar-2019

Dividend per Share (Rp) 168.00 185.00 214 0

EPS* (Rp) 374.37 466.39 535 516

Avg. Listed Shares (million) 40,484 40,484 40,484 40,484

Book Value (Rp) 3,455.87 3,861.54 4307 4460

Deb-to-Equity Ratio (X) 0.87 0.89 0.98 0.98

Gross Profit Margin (%) 20.12 20.56 21.22 21.16

Operating Profit Margin (%)

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.11 11.24 11.44 11.18

ROA (%)* 6.99 7.84 7.94 7.47

ROE (%)* 13.08 14.82 15.7 14.77

Market Price per Share (Rp) 8275 8300 8225 7325

PBV (X) 2.39 2.15 1.91 1.64

PER (X) 18.3 14.51 12.17 11.12

Source : www.astra.co.id | IDX | processed | *annualized

ASII Fair Price Rp8,795 Potential Upside 18.05%

Menggunakan pendekatan Discounted Cash

Flow, dengan asumsi Cost of Equity sebesar

13.56%, Required Return sebesar 11.76%, dan

Terminal Growth sebesar 9.31%, diperkirakan

harga wajar ASII adalah Rp8,795.

1 8

October

15 22 29 5 12

November

19 26 3 10

December

17 26 2 7

2019

14 21 28 4 11

February

18 25 4

March

11 18 25 1

April

8 15 22 30

May

13 20 27 10

June

17 24 2

July

8

0

50

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Stochastic Oscillator (26.0870)

5000

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x10000

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8900ASII (7225.0000, 7325.0000, 7175.0000, 7275.0000, +25.0000), MACD (-4.27463)

Astra Otoparts

Source : www.astra.co.id

Page 4: Taspro Update - PHINTRACO SEKURITAS...PT Astra International, Tbk - ASII 0 7450 Daily Change -1.00 % Weekly Change 4.18 % Monthly Change -2.11 % YTD Change 15.85 % 52w Highest 6500

Major Shareholders

%

PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Group 55.53%

Vinai Rakphongphairoj 0.00%

Public <5% 44.47%

Total 100%

Source : www.cp.co.id | IDX | as of 12-7-2019

PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia, Tbk - CPIN

PT Chareon Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN) didirikan pada tahun 1972. CPIN

bergerak dalam bidang usaha pakan ternak, pembibitan ayam, peternakan

ayam pedaging dan makanan olahan. CPIN mengoperasikan beberapa

breeding farm dan pabrik pakan yang tersebar di Pulau Sumatera, Jawa,

Kalimantan, Nusa Tenggara dan Sulawesi . Day Old Chicks merupakan

penyumbang pendapatan terbesar dari CPIN. CPIN mencatatkan sahamnya

pertama kali di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) pada 18 Maret 1991.

Kinerja CPIN per Maret 2019 : CPIN membukukan pertumbuhan penjualan

bersih sebesar 21.93% yoy menjadi Rp14.46 triliun pada Q1-2019. Berdasarkan

lini produk, penjualan bersih pakan ternak mencapai Rp7.06 triliun (+22.77%

yoy) dan menjadi penyumbang terbesar (48.81%) penjualan perusahaan. Secara

umum, hampir semua lini produk CPIN membukukan pertumbuhan penjualan

bersih pada Q1-2019. Akan tetapi, kenaikan harga bahan baku, terutama

jagung mendorong kenaikan beban pokok penjualan hingga 29.21% menjadi

Rp12.74 triliun. Kenaikan beban pokok penjualan tersebut berdampak pada

penurunan laba bersih sebesar 18.09% yoy menjadi Rp812.28 miliar.

Mempertimbangkan kontribusi signifikan dari produk pakan ternak, CPIN

menganggarkan dana belanja modal sebesar Rp1.25 triliun untuk

menyelesaikan pembangunan pabrik pakan ternak. Pabrik baru ini ditargetkan

mulai beroperasi pada Q3-2019 dan berpotensi meningkatkan kapasitas

produksi pakan ternak CPIN sebesar 1.5 hingga 2 juta ton per tahun. CPIN juga

menganggarkan dana belanja modal sebesar Rp600 miliar untuk

mengembangkan broiler, mengingat lini produk pakan ternak dan broiler saling

berkaitan.

Disamping upaya peningkatan kinerja internal, CPIN juga memperoleh

sentimen positif dari potensi perbaikan harga jual ayam di tingkat peternak

sejalan dengan permintaan Pemerintah RI untuk mengurangi produksi Day Old

Chicken (DOC), salah satunya melalui pemusnahan untuk periode 21 Maret

sampai dengan 8 April 2019. Oleh sebab itu, CPIN memperkirakan

pertumbuhan volume penjualan sebesar 10% yoy di tahun 2019.

Shares Info

Value

Share Code CPIN

Sector Basic Industry

Sub Sector Animal Feed

Listing Date Maret 18, 1991

IPO Price 5100

Listed Shares (million) 16,398

Market Cap.* (Rp billion) 86,090

Source : www.cp.co.id | IDX | as of 12-7-2019

Phintraco Sekuritas | Taspro Update 2019 Hal 5

Table 2. Shares Comparison - as of Mar-2019 (Rp billion)

Last* %YTD 2019H 2019L BV EPS %DPR PER PBV

CPIN 5475 -20.57 8600 4280 1232 196 42.49 32.30 5.19

JPFA 1690 -19.18 3050 1300 890 108 53.92 15.17 1.9

MAIN 1165 -7.46 1895 1015 888 164 29.92 1.78 1.31

Source : IDX | RTI | processed | *as of 12-7-2019 | **annualized

Table 1. Performance Comparison - as of Mar-2019 (Rp billion)

Assets Liabilities Equity Revenue Net Profit NPM DER ROA* ROE*

CPIN 28,557 8,374 20,203 57,821 3,249 5.62 0.41 11.37 16.08

JPFA 24,236 13,794 10,442 34,259 1,306 3.81 1.32 5.39 12.51

MAIN 4,456 2,374 1,988 7,779 365 4.70 1.19 8.38 18.38

Source : IDX | RTI | processed | *annualized | as of 12-7-2019

Feedmill

Source : www.cp.co.id

Days Old Chicks

Source : www.cp.co.id

Page 5: Taspro Update - PHINTRACO SEKURITAS...PT Astra International, Tbk - ASII 0 7450 Daily Change -1.00 % Weekly Change 4.18 % Monthly Change -2.11 % YTD Change 15.85 % 52w Highest 6500

PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia, Tbk - cpin

5250 Daily Change -4.55%

Weekly Change -6.53%

Monthly Change 8.53%

YTD Change 46.94%

52w Highest 8825

52w Lowest 3750

Source : BEI, as of 12-7-2019

Resistance [6000] Pivot [5050] Support [4700] 3-month target [7100] : tengah

menguji critical level 5500 untuk melanjutkan pola bullish reversal dengan

resistance level terdekat di 6000. Resistance breakout pada level tersebut

merupakan indikasi kuat berlanjutnya bullish reversal jangka menengah dengan

target level di kisraan 6600-7100.

Phintraco Sekuritas | Taspro Update 2019 Hal 6

Table 1. Shares Comparison (Rp million)

BALANCE SHEET (’000 IDR) Dec-2016 Dec-2017 Dec-2018 Mar-2019

Cash and Equivalent 2,504,434 1,793,454 2,803,131 2,208,085

Assets 24,204,994 24,532,311 27,645,118 28,577,880

Liabilities 10,047,751 8,822,202 8,253,944 8,374,427

Equity 14,157,243 15,710,129 19,391,174 20,203,453

INCOME STATEMENTS Dec-2016 Dec-2017 Dec-2018 Mar-2019

Revenues 38,256,857 49,367,386 53,957,604 14,455,252

Gross Profit 6,513,635 6,251,288 9,134,849 1,714,768

Operating Profit 4,417,116 3,720,391 6,488,206 1,046,350

Net Profit 2,225,402 2,499,875 4,599,333 812,279

Net Profit Attributable 2,220,561 2,500,853 4,554,,391 811,539

RATIOS Dec-2016 Dec-2017 Dec-2018 Mar-2019

Dividend per Share (Rp) 56 56 118 0

EPS* (Rp) 13.54 152.32 278 196

Avg. Listed Shares (million) 16,398 16,398 16,398 16,398

Book Value (Rp) 863 958 1183 1232

Deb-to-Equity Ratio (X) 0.71 0.56 0.43 0.41

Gross Profit Margin (%) 17.03 12.66 16.93 11.86

Operating Profit Margin (%) 11.55 7.53 12.02 7.24

Net Profit Margin (%) 5.82 5.06 8.52 5.62

ROA (%)* 9.19 10.18 16.64 11.37

ROE (%)* 15.72 15.9 23.72 16.08

Market Price per Share (Rp) 3090 3000 7225 6400

PBV (X) 3.58 3.13 6.11 5.19

PER (X) 22.77 19.68 25.76 32.3

Source : www.cp.co.id | IDX | processed | *annualized

CPIN Fair Price Rp6,185 Potential Upside 13.49%

Menggunakan pendekatan Discounted

Dividend Model, dengan asumsi Dividend

Payout Ratio sebesar 30%, Expected Return

sebesar 13.68%, dan Expected Growth sebesar

12.04%, diperkirakan harga wajar CPIN adalah

Rp6,185.

10

September

17 24 1 8

October

15 22 29 5 12

November

19 26 3 10

December

17 26 2 7

2019

14 21 28 4 11

February

18 25 4

March

11 18 25 1

April

8 15 22 30

May

13 20 27 10

June

17 24 2 8

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CPIN (5,150.00, 5,150.00, 5,000.00, 5,050.00, -50.0000), MACD (-37.4142)

Produk Olahan

Source : www.cp.co.id

Page 6: Taspro Update - PHINTRACO SEKURITAS...PT Astra International, Tbk - ASII 0 7450 Daily Change -1.00 % Weekly Change 4.18 % Monthly Change -2.11 % YTD Change 15.85 % 52w Highest 6500

Major Shareholders

%

PT. Salim Ivomas Pratama 59.51%

Indofood Agri Resources, Ltd 0.11%

Public <5% 40.38%

Total 100%

Source : www.londonsumatra.com| IDX | as of 12-7-2019

PT London Sumatra Indonesia , Tbk - LSIP

PT London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (LSIP) didirikan pada 18 Desember 1962.

LSIP merupakan perusahaan perkebunan dan perdagangan, LSIP memiliki

portofolio produk yaitu Kelapa Sawit, Karet, Benih Bibit Kelapa Sawit dan

lainnya. Perkebunan LSIP berlokasi di Sumatera, Kalimantan, Jawa dan Sulawesi

dengan lahan perkebunan tertanam inti mencapai 115,904 Hektar. LSIP

memiliki 12 pabrik kelapa sawit yang terletak di Sumatera dan Kalimantan. LSIP

mencatatkan sahamnya pertama kali di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) pada 5 Juli

1996.

Kinerja LSIP per Maret 2019 : LSIP membukukan pertumbuhan volume produksi

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) sebesar 7.80% yoy menjadi 95,801 ton dan Tandan Buah

Segar (TBS) sebesar 13.00% yoy menjadi 26,845 ton pada Q1-2019. Sejalan

dengan pencapaian tersebut, LSIP membukukan pertumbuhan penjualan

sebesar 6.86% yoy menjadi Rp927.94 miliar pada periode yang sama. Meski

demikian, LSIP mengalami penurunan laba bersih sebesar 67.06% yoy menjadi

Rp38.10 miliar pada Q1-2019.

Penurunan laba bersih tersebut disebabkan oleh kenaikan beban pokok

penjualan sebesar 18.90% yoy menjadi Rp792.01 miliar yang mengakibatkan

penurunan Gross Profit Margin (GPM) sebesar 864 bps menjadi 14.65%. Meski

demikian, LSIP masih mencatatkan kenaikan Inventory Turnover (ITO) dari 5.40X

di Q1-2018 menjadi 6.52X di Q1-2019. Selain kenaikan beban pokok penjualan,

faktor lainnya adalah adanya rugi neto selisih kurs atas aktivitas operasi sebesar

Rp9.03 miliar di Q1-2019, kerugian ini tidak ada pada Q1-2018.

Untuk tahun 2019, pasar CPO relatif stagnan yang diindikasikan oleh

terbatasnya pertumbuhan volume produksi CPO beberapa perusahaan

plantation besar di Indonesia (AALI +6.8% yoy; LSIP +7.8% yoy) di Q1-2019.

Untuk mendorong penjualan CPO Indonesia, Pemerintah menurunkan bea

impor gula dari India pada akhir Juni 2019. Kebijakan ini diharapkan dapat

mendorong India untuk menurunkan bea masuk sawit Indonesia, mengingat

India merupakan negara tujuan ekspor CPO terbesar Indonesia tahun 2018.

Shares Info

Value

Share Code LSIP

Sector Agriculture

Sub Sector Plantation

Listing Date July 5, 1996

IPO Price 4650

Listed Shares (million) 6,823

Market Cap.* (Rp billion) 7,642

Source : www.londonsumatra.com | IDX | as of 12-7-2019

Phintraco Sekuritas | Taspro Update 2019 Hal 5

Table 2. Shares Comparison - as of Mar-2019 (Rp billion)

Last* %YTD 2019H 2019L BV EPS %DPR PER PBV

LSIP 1170 -2.39 1490 1040 1227 24.00 40.00 46.56 0.85

SIMP 346 -26.74 535 326 1175 (8.00) N.A -17.90 0.29

SSMS 975 -23.38 1220 970 440 47.4 30.00 20.57 2.22

Source : IDX | RTI | processed | *as of 12-7-2019 | **annualized

Table 1. Performance Comparison - as of Mar-2019 (Rp billion)

Assets Liabilities Equity Revenue Net Profit NPM DER ROA* ROE*

LSIP 10,325 1,956 8,369 3,712 152 4.11 0.23 1.48 1.82

SIMP 35,497 17,287 18,210 13,443 (300) -2.23 0.95 -0.84 -1.65

SSMS 11.131 6.943 4.188 3.383 451 13.34 1.44 4.06 10.78

Source : IDX | RTI | processed | *annualized | as of 12-7-2019

Fasilitas PT London Sumatra Indonesia

Source : londonsumatra.com

Page 7: Taspro Update - PHINTRACO SEKURITAS...PT Astra International, Tbk - ASII 0 7450 Daily Change -1.00 % Weekly Change 4.18 % Monthly Change -2.11 % YTD Change 15.85 % 52w Highest 6500

PT Bumi Serpong Damai, Tbk - BSDE

1120 Daily Change -2.61 %

Weekly Change -2.59 %

Monthly Change -0.02 %

YTD Change 29.53 %

52w Highest 1520

52w Lowest 915

Source : BEI, as of 12-7-2019

Resistance [1250] Pivot [1150] Support [1070] 3-month target [1260-1300] :

LSIP berada dalam pola bullish reversal. Akumulasi beli dapat dilakukan dalam

rentang pivot 1120-1180. Selama bertahan di pivot area, LSIP berpeluang uji

level psikologis 1200. Breakout level 1200, merupakan sinyal kuat berlanjutnya

bullish reversal. LSIP berpeluang menguji resistance area 1235-1260.

Phintraco Sekuritas | Taspro Update 2019 Hal 6

Table 1. Shares Comparison (Rp million)

BALANCE SHEET (’000 IDR) Dec-2016 Dec-2017 Dec-2018 Mar-2019

Cash and Equivalent 1,140,614 1,633,460 1,663,456 1,585,608

Assets 9,459,088 9,852,695 10,037.,294 10,325,202

Liabilities 1,813,104 1,622,254 1,705,175 1,956,173

Equity 7,645,984 8,230,441 8,332,119 8,369,029

INCOME STATEMENTS Dec-2016 Dec-2017 Dec-2018 Mar-2019

Revenues 3,847,869 4,738,022 4,019,846 927,936

Gross Profit 1,110,785 1,342,838 683,033 135,929

Operating Profit 810,774 904,240 339,735 30,914

Net Profit 592,769 733,248 329,426 38,104

Net Profit Attributable 593,829 733,306 331,426 38.627

RATIOS Dec-2016 Dec-2017 Dec-2018 Mar-2019

Dividend per Share (Rp) 35.00 45.00 19 0

EPS* (Rp) 87.04 108 49 24

Avg. Listed Shares (million) 6,823 6,823 6,823 6,823

Book Value (Rp) 1,121 1,206 1,221 1,227

Deb-to-Equity Ratio (X) 0.24 0.20 0.20 0.23

Gross Profit Margin (%) 28.87 28.34 16.99 14.65

Operating Profit Margin (%) 21.07 20.23 8.45 3.33

Net Profit Margin (%) 15.41 16.11 8.19 4.11

ROA (%)* 6.27 7.83 3.28 1.48

ROE (%)* 7.75 9.40 3.95 1.82

Market Price per Share (Rp) 1,740 1,420 1,250 1,040

PBV (X) 1.55 1.18 1.02 0.85

PER (X) 20.03 13.21 25.89 46.56

Source : www.londonsumatra.com | IDX | processed | *annualized

LSIP Fair Price Rp1,595 Potential Upside 42.41%

Menggunakan pendekatan Discounted Cash

Flow, dengan asumsi Cost of Equity sebesar

15.35%, Required Return sebesar 11.48%, dan

Terminal Growth sebesar 5.63%, diperkirakan

harga wajar LSIP adalah Rp1,595.

Teh Kahuripan

Source : londonsumatra.com

Perkebunan

Source : londonsumatra.com

13 20 27 3 10 17

September

24 1 8

October

15 22 29 5 12

November

19 26 3 10

December

17 26 2

2019

14 21 28 4 11

February

18 25 4 11

March

18 25 1 8

April

15 22 30 6

May

13 20 27 10

June

17 24 2

July

15 22

50 50

Stochastic Oscillator (50.7937)

50000

x1000

50000

x1000

-75

-70-65

-60

-55-50

-45-40

-35-30

-25-20

-15-10

-50

510

1520

2530

3540

4550

55

6065

7075

8085

9095

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550LSIP (1,175.00, 1,180.00, 1,150.00, 1,155.00, -20.0000), MACD (9.67065)

Page 8: Taspro Update - PHINTRACO SEKURITAS...PT Astra International, Tbk - ASII 0 7450 Daily Change -1.00 % Weekly Change 4.18 % Monthly Change -2.11 % YTD Change 15.85 % 52w Highest 6500

DISCLAIMER

This report is provided for information purposes only. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any company, industry, security or investment. Opinions

expressed are subject to change without notice. Statements of fact have been obtained from sources considered reliable but no representation is made by Phintraco

Sekuritas or any of its affiliates as to their completeness or accuracy. Phintraco Sekuritas in this report, which position may change from time to time, buy or sell such securi-

ties or investments. Phintraco Sekuritas or its affiliates may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit in investment banking or other

business from, any company mentioned in this

report. An employee of Phintraco Sekuritas or its

PHINTRACO SEKURITAS

The EAST Tower 16th Floor

Jl. Dr. Ide Anak Agung Gde Agung

Kav. E3.2 No. 1

Mega Kuningan, Jakarta 12950

Call Center : +62 21 2555 6111

P. +62 21 2555 6138

F. +62 21 2555 6139

www.phintracosekuritas.com

Kantor Cabang & Mitra GI BEI

Lampiran

Shares 14-Feb-2019 Fair Price Potential Upside Strategy Market Price as 12-Jul-2019

Feb ‘19

APLN Rp185 Rp311 68.11% Buy Rp244

MTDL Rp900 Rp1,102 22.44% Sell Rp1,290

TOWR Rp840 Rp1,321 57.26% Buy Rp800

Phintraco Sekuritas | Taspro Update 2019 Hal 9

Shares 19-Mar-2019 Fair Price Potential Upside Strategy Market Price as 12-Jul-2019

Mar

‘19

ASGR Rp1,435 Rp2,660 85.37% Buy Rp1,195

SCMA Rp1,750 Rp2,722 55.54% Buy Rp1,515

TSPC Rp1,750 Rp1,820 4.00% Buy Rp1,575

Shares 18-Apr-2019 Fair Price Potential Upside Strategy Market Price as 12-Jul-2019

Apr ‘19

ANTM Rp855 Rp1,336 56.26% Buy Rp845

ERAA Rp1,515 Rp2,568 69.50% Buy Rp1,975

WIKA Rp2,400 Rp3,287 36.96% Buy Rp2,310

Shares 11-Jun-2019 Fair Price Potential Upside Strategy Market Price as 12-Jul-2019

Jun ‘19

PWON 750 1,067 45.17% Buy Rp720

MAIN 1,045 1,427 35.26% Buy Rp1,135

BSDE 1,380 1,724 23.14% Buy Rp1,500