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TEAM TERMINATOR

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Data Set 1 University Biologists Population Crash in 384 years, with a growth rate of 0.975, just short of equilibrium replacement Realistically likely no policy action for an event almost 400 years away Why?

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384 years ago? The first successful English colony in the West Indies was established, and the first calculator mechanism to add or subtract six-digit numbers was invented. Spooky Tooky Owl 400 years into the future? Insignificant at best.

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Data Set 2 Government Study Population Crash in 66 years Growth rate of 0.868 Lower survival probabilities (S, S 0 and S 1 ) quickens population crash and lowers growth rate

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Policy Implications Population collapse time of 66 years allows for more than enough time to act in favor of the protection of the wondrous Spooky Tooky. However, the time scale of over 60 years lapses generations and political eras, possibly causing a lack of interest in an issue not critical for such a relatively long time.

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Data Set 3 Sierra Club Population Crash in 22 years Growth Rate of 0.653 Significantly lower survival probabilities than the other two data sets, causing the relatively earlier crash Possibly an inherent bias in the Sierra Clubs findings to further their cause of environmental protection

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Policy Implications Of all the data sets, the Sierra Clubs findings allows for a time frame most applicable and appealing to policy work 22 years is a realistic time span for policy enactment and completion. Example 1985 Vienna Treaty on ozone depletion and CFC use (22 years ago)

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Comparative effects on Growth Rate Lambda