tech memo 6 - nwarpc-tdp latent demand analysis...a latent demand analysis that is based on existing...

Northwest Arkansas Transit Development Plan

Technical Memorandum #6 Latent Demand Analysis

Prepared for:

Submitted by: Connetics Transportation Group

September 2010

Technical Memorandum 6: Page TOC Northwest Arkansas Transit Development Plan Latent Demand Analysis September 2010

Table of Contents

1.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1

2.0 Methodology ....................................................................................................................................... 2

3.0 Existing Population Characteristics...................................................................................................... 4

3.1 Population Densities ........................................................................................................................ 5

3.2 Student Population (K‐12) and Students Over 18 Years of Age ...................................................... 9

3.3 Population 65 Years of Age and Over ............................................................................................ 13

4.0 Existing Employment Characteristics ................................................................................................ 17

5.0 Major Employers ............................................................................................................................... 21

6.0 Census Data Characteristics .............................................................................................................. 26

6.1 Population With at Least One Disability ........................................................................................ 27

6.2 Minority populations ..................................................................................................................... 31

6.3 Households Below Poverty ............................................................................................................ 35

6.4 Households With No Vehicles ....................................................................................................... 39

7.0 Longitudinal Employer‐Household Dynamics .................................................................................... 43

8.0 Future Population Projections ........................................................................................................... 49

9.0 Future Employment Projections ........................................................................................................ 57

10.0 Potential Transit Service Needs ......................................................................................................... 65

10.1 Benton County ............................................................................................................................... 65

10.2 Washington County ....................................................................................................................... 65

10.3 Service Needs in Areas Presently Served by Transit ...................................................................... 66

Technical Memorandum 6: Page 1 Northwest Arkansas Transit Development Plan Latent Demand Analysis September 2010

1.0 Introduction

The Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission (NWARPC) is leading the effort to complete a Transit Development Plan for the Northwest Arkansas region. The overall objective of this project is to identify near‐term, short‐range and long‐range service recommendations that provide an integrated regional public transportation network and expands opportunities for Northwest Arkansas residents to utilize this network. Several work tasks are being completed to achieve this objective including:

The collection of Ozark Regional Transit (ORT) and Razorback Transit ridership data at a stop level and trip level basis;

An on‐board survey of ORT and Razorback Transit riders;

A review of historical ridership trends for both systems;

Input from staff and drivers for both systems;

A comprehensive evaluation of existing transit services on a systems and route level basis that is based on collected data;

Input from representatives of key stakeholder groups, a project advisory committee and from input received at public meetings; and

A latent demand analysis that is based on existing and projected demographic characteristics of the Northwest Arkansas region.

This Technical Memorandum is one of several that are being prepared as part of this TDP. This particular Technical Memorandum presents results from a latent demand analysis. The purpose of the latent demand analysis is to identify geographic areas where there may be potential opportunities for service expansion and improvements. Demographic data characteristics and growth projections have been identified for Benton and Washington Counties. Findings from this analysis will be used to identify service improvements that address service needs in unserved and underserved areas.

This Technical Memorandum begins with a discussion of the methodology utilized for the latent demand analysis. The next chapter presents current population characteristics, including populations under 18 or identified as a student, and populations over age 65. The following chapter presents existing employment characteristics, followed by an analysis of major employer locations. Demographic characteristics from the census are then presented, followed by an analysis of home‐to‐work characteristics for select major employment centers. Future population and employment forecasts are then discussed followed by a summary of potential geographic areas and travel markets where new and/or expanded public transportation services may be warranted.


2.0 Methodology

The Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission planning area encompasses Benton and Washington Counties as well as the largest cities of Bentonville, Fayetteville, Rogers and Springdale which are all located within the US Census‐defined urbanized area of Northwest Arkansas. Figure 2‐1 highlights the areas of other key municipalities within the region as well as current ORT and Razorback Transit routes. Municipal (city and town) limits are a logical upper‐limit scale to which latent demand analysis will be based. The Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) will be used as the smallest unit of analysis.

Figure 2‐1: Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Area


The methodology employed for the Northwest Arkansas Latent Demand Analysis utilizes the following data sources:

Geographic, political and transportation geodata has been provided by the Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission.

Population, household and employment estimates come from the Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) files for 2005 and 2010 and were shown with an overlay of public transportation service.

Population subsets of students K‐12 (aged 5 through 17), students aged 18 and over, and population aged 65 and over come from the 2010 TAZ file and were also shown with transit service.

Data for minorities, households below poverty, households with zero vehicles and households with one or more disability come from year 2000 of the US Census. Due to the age of data, percentages of these targeted demographic groups were applied to the projection year 2010 under the assumption these groups in 2000 would comprise similar percentages within the population in 2010 and would be located in similar locations. Additionally, because these data populated census tracts, proportion of TAZ area within census tract was used to adjust demographic percentages for the final result, which is shown with the transit service overlay.

Locations of major employment and activity centers come from 2008 employment data from InfoUSA and were mapped with transit service.

Longitudinal Employment–Household Dynamics data come from the 2007 US Census Bureau and were used to show labor commute sheds countywide in Benton and Washington Counties as well as targeted areas of employment, such as Bentonville, Rogers, Springdale and Fayetteville, based on employment data from the NWARPC 2010 TAZ file. As with previous datasets, transit service was shown as an overlay.

Population, household and employment projections come from the Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission Transportation Analysis Zone files for horizon years 2010 and 2030. Transit service was likewise included in these maps.

The maps resulting from this methodology were used to build a list of areas with potential latent demand.

The two‐county Northwest Arkansas region is served by a variety of transportation providers (such as hospitals, hotels, senior facilities or activity centers) operating at the local level. However, for the purposes of this technical memorandum, ORT and Razorback Transit are the public transportation agencies under consideration, and the terms “public transportation” and “transit” may be used interchangeably to refer to ORT, Razorback Transit or both where applicable.


3.0 Existing Population Characteristics

Year 2010 estimated population data provided by the NWARPC 2010 TAZ reflects an overall population of 453,435, of which 219,673 (50.4%) resides in Benton County and 215,780 (49.6%) resides in Washington County. Benton County population has increased by 11 percent and Washington County population has increased by approximately 19 percent since 2005. Thus, both counties experienced similar size and growth characteristics over the past five years. Year 2010 population estimates are not available at the city level. However, 2009 city population estimates are available as shown in Table 3‐1:

Table 3‐1: 2009 City Population Estimates

Benton County Cities Washington County Cities

Avoca 465 Elkins 2,522

Bella Vista 25,483 Elm Springs 1,309

Bentonville 36,855 Farmington 4,682

Bethel Heights 1,598 Fayetteville 77,142

Cave Springs 1,797 Goshen 1,149

Centerton 8,637 Greenland 1,237

Decatur 2,064 Johnson 3,317

Garfield 485 Lincoln 2,083

Gateway 545 Prairie Grove 3,903

Gentry 3,129 Springdale 68,487

Gravette 2,660 Tontitown 2,057

Highfill 848 West Fork 2,337

Little Flock 3,251 Winslow 395

Lowell 7,420 Incorporated 170,620

Pea Ridge 4,778

Rogers 59,014

Siloam Springs 14,872

Springtown 127

Sulphur Springs 719

Incorporated 174,747


3.1 Population Densities

Figure 3‐1 illustrates the 2010 population density of Benton County by TAZ. Areas of higher density occur between the Interstate 540 and US 71 corridors. Additionally, communities of higher density can be found in the western part of the county along State Highway 59 in the cities of Siloam Springs, Gentry, Gravette and Sulphur Springs. Areas of highest population density occur in and near downtown Bentonville, downtown Rogers and Siloam Springs.

Figure 3‐1: Existing Benton County Population Densities


Figure 3‐2 provides a closer view of population densities in the central portion of Benton County. The highest densities are generally in and around downtown Rogers and in downtown Bentonville. These are areas north of New Hope Road, south of Easy Street and south of West Hudson Road in Rogers; and south of Southwest 2nd Street in Bentonville. As shown in Figure 3‐2, ORT transit service is provided in a portion of these areas with higher population densities. However, there are still several areas with densities of 5 or more persons per acre that are not serviced by ORT. It is also important to keep in mind that ORT service on these routes is limited, with hourly service and no evening or weekend service.

Figure 3‐2: Existing Central Benton County Population Densities


Figure 3‐3 shows that the areas in Washington County of highest population density occur primarily in the central areas of Fayetteville, Springdale and Johnson. Most of these areas are bounded by I‐540 and US 71 although higher density occurs east and west of downtown Fayetteville along AR 16. Higher density also occurs linearly along US 62 in southwestern Washington County.

Figure 3‐3:

Existing Washington County Population Densities


Figure 3‐4 shows a closer view of downtown Springdale, Johnson and Fayetteville. Highest population density in Fayetteville occurs in the central areas and in many areas around the University of Arkansas and north of Old Wire Road. Other areas include directly north of Main Drive in Johnson, east of Northwest Arkansas Mall. In Springdale, highest densities occur in an area bounded by Sunset Avenue and South Pleasant and South Thompson Streets, near the Interstate and Sunset Ave, north of West Huntsville Road, south of East Robinson Avenue and east of the airport along South Old Missouri Road.

Figure 3‐4: Existing Fayetteville and Springdale Area Population Densities


3.2 Student Population (K‐12) and Students Over 18 Years of Age

Areas of highest student populations occur in close proximity to schools throughout Benton County, especially in central areas of municipalities. Figure 3‐5 shows the distribution of educational institutions and the distribution of student population throughout Benton County. Although many of the areas with higher student populations currently have some level of transit service, other areas, especially in areas south of downtown Rogers and northwest of downtown Bentonville, do not have any service. ORT does not directly provide transportation for school‐aged children.

Figure 3‐5: Benton County Educational Institutions and Student Population Densities


The highest student densities occur around downtown Rogers and Bentonville. As shown in Figure 3‐6, the higher densities in Rogers occur near Eastside Elementary, Elmwood Junior High, Grace Hill Elementary, Regan Elementary and northeast of Rogers. For Bentonville, higher densities occur near Spring Hill Middle, Old High Middle and Sugar Creek Elementary. ORT currently serves many of these areas except for south of Rogers and west of Bentonville. Expansion into these areas is a possibility due to potential student or staff demand.

Figure 3‐6: Central Benton County Educational Institutions and Student Population Densities


Figure 3‐7 shows locations of educational institutions and student population for Washington County. Highest student populations reside in central Fayetteville (University of Arkansas) and Springdale in addition to Prairie Grove, Elm Springs and West Fork. Although many of these areas have extensive transit service, other areas may be candidates for expanded coverage.

Figure 3‐7: Washington County Educational Institutions and Student Population Densities


Figure 3‐8 shows a closer view of Fayetteville and Springdale. As noted with Benton County, many areas of higher student population occur in close proximity to educational institutions, especially in the central areas.

Figure 3‐8: Fayetteville and Springdale Areas Educational Institutions and Student Population Densities


3.3 Population 65 Years of Age and Over

Figure 3‐9 illustrates the distribution of people aged 65 and over living within Benton County. As shown below, the vast majority of this population resides in Siloam Springs, Bella Vista, Bentonville and Rogers with other densities in surroundings municipalities, but almost always in central areas.

Figure 3‐9: Benton County Population Aged 65 and Over


A closer view of the Bentonville and Rogers area is provided in Figure 3‐10. The highest densities of people 65 years and over reside in downtown Bentonville and downtown Rogers. Bella Vista also has a large number of people within this age group, especially encircling Lakes Avalon and Windsor, but does not have ORT service.

Figure 3‐10: Central Benton County Population Aged 65 and Over


The distribution of people aged 65 and over for Washington County is shown in Figure 3‐11. The majority of this population group resides in Springdale, Johnson and Fayetteville, with smaller densities residing in cities along US 62 to the southwest of Fayetteville.

Figure 3‐11: Washington County Population Aged 65 and Over


Highest densities, seen in Figure 3‐12, are northeast of Fayetteville and in central Springdale. Within Fayetteville, these higher densities are located near the interchange of Fulbright Expressway and North College Avenue, near Washington Regional Medical Center, and around Paradise Valley Golf Course. Within Springdale, these areas are north of West Huntsville Avenue west of North Thompson Street, and large areas bounded by West Sunset and Backus Avenues, South Thompson Street and South Guthensohn Road. Although ORT has service along many of these corridors, particularly in Springdale, there is potential in expanding service to cover these areas more comprehensively.

Figure 3‐12: Washington County Population Aged 65 and Over


4.0 Existing Employment Characteristics

Year 2010 employment data reflects an overall employment base of 230,984, of which 113,023 (48.9%) is employed in Benton County and 117,961 (51.1%) is employed in Washington County. County employment growth between 2005 and 2010 is shown in Table 4‐1 below.

Table 4‐1: Total Numbers of Employees in Both Counties

Total Employees 2005 2010 Change (%)

Benton County 90,698 (47.7%) 113,023 (48.9%) 24.6%

Washington County 99,603 (52.3%) 117,961 (51.1%) 18.4%

Total 190,301 230,984 21.4%

Figure 4‐1 illustrates the 2005 employment density of Benton County by TAZ in units of number of employees per acre. Areas of high employment density (more than 8 employees per acre) occur in the downtowns of Bentonville and Rogers as well as in downtown Siloam Springs.

Figure 4‐1: Existing Benton County Employment Densities


Figure 4‐2 provides a closer view of the Bentonville and Rogers areas. The areas of highest employment densities is attributable to the Wal‐Mart Headquarters and offices and retail stores in Bentonville (around 31 employees per acre) and to the number of businesses in downtown Rogers (around 19 employees per acre). Other areas of high employment (8 to 16 employees per acre) occur along West Walnut Street in Rogers and the Pinnacle Hills Promenade and surrounding employment near the Interstate. The central area along West Monroe in Lowell also has higher employment density.

Figure 4‐2: Existing Central Benton County Employment Densities


Figure 4‐3 highlights areas of concentrated employment in Washington County. Highest employment occurs in the cities of Fayetteville, Johnson, Springdale, Tontitown and Bethel Heights. Although areas of employment occur outside of these largest cities, the TAZ size may dilute the concentration of employment which may occur along key corridors, such as US Highways 62 and 71, and AR 16 and AR 265.

Figure 4‐3: Existing Washington County Employment Densities


Figure 4‐4 provides a closer inspection of the areas of higher employment in Washington County. Most employment is concentrated around the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. Other areas of high employment (more than 16 employees per acre) occur downtown, near the airport and near the intersection of US highways 71 and 412.

Figure 4‐4: Existing Fayetteville and Springdale Area Employment Densities


5.0 Major Employers

Employment data comes from the 2008 edition of employment from InfoUSA, provided by the Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission. Major employment was chosen to be all companies of all types over 50 employees in size. The resulting data shows the location of companies between 50 and 10,000 employees.

For Benton County, the majority of large companies are located in Bentonville and Rogers with some in Gentry and Siloam Springs (see Figure 5‐1). Many are located near or on ORT service routes with the exception of companies located in Siloam Springs and Gentry. Figure 5‐2 provides a closer view of the Bentonville and Rogers areas. The largest employers in Benton County are as follows in Table 5‐1:

Table 5‐1: Top Five Employers in Benton County

City Name Employees Type of Company

Bentonville Wal‐Mart Stores, Inc.* 10000 Department Stores

Bentonville Sam's Club* 5000 Exporters (Wholesale)

Gentry Mc Kee Foods Corp. 1550 Bread/Other Bakery Prod‐Excl. Cookies (Mfg.)

Lowell J. B. Hunt Transport Svc., Inc. 1200 Trucking, Local Cartage

Bentonville Wal‐Mart 1000 Distribution Centers (Wholesale)

*These locations may actually count the total number of employees on payroll and not the number of employees who work at the headquarters locations.


Figure 5‐1: Major Employers in Benton County


Figure 5‐2: Central Benton County Major Employers


Major employers in Washington County are primarily located near major north‐south corridors in the cities of Fayetteville and Springdale with smaller companies extending south along the US 62 corridor, as shown in Figure 5‐3. A closer view of the Fayetteville and Springdale areas, listing the names of employers in those areas is provided in Figure 5‐4. The largest employers in Washington County are as follows in Table 5‐2.

Table 5‐2: Top Five Employers in Washington County

City Name Employees Type of Company

Fayetteville University of Arkansas 4,008 Schools‐Universities & Colleges Academic

Fayetteville Washington Regional Med. Ctr. 2,001 Clinics

Springdale Northwest Medical Ctr. 1,800 Hospices

Springdale Tyson Foods, Inc. 1,600 Farms

Fayetteville Superior Industries Intl., Inc. 1,450 Automobile Parts & Supplies (Mfg.)

Springdale Cargill, Inc. 1,100 Poultry Processing Plants (Mfg.)

Figure 5‐3

Major Employers in Washington County


Figure 5‐4: Fayetteville & Springdale Area Major Employers


6.0 Census Data Characteristics

The following four demographic maps were created using year 2000 US Census data which were appended to the 2010 TAZ file from the Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission:

Population with at least one disability

Minority population

Households below poverty

Households owning no vehicles

Proportions of these four demographic characteristics were applied from year 2000 data to projected year 2010 data under the assumption these population groups would be very similar both in size and distribution across the study area.

The data which comes from the 2000 Census was available only at the census tract level; these cover larger areas than the finer‐grained TAZ units of analysis. To allocate the data rationally across the smaller TAZ units, the proportions of zones within census tracts were applied to the projected 2010 census tract data to obtain proportioned, projected data. Thus, the final data is a product of both land proportion and population proportion.

It is important to note the totals and distribution of the data. The maps presented in this chapter reflect total estimated numbers of persons in each TAZ that meet the specific demographic characteristic. This is different than former maps which showed densities of target populations. However, the final data, as previously noted, is already a product of both geographic and total population proportioning. As a consequence, areas with higher populations and larger TAZ sizes will contain more specific demographics than areas with smaller populations and smaller TAZ sizes. However, smaller zones in central areas, though having lower total numbers, taken together may represent a larger population than larger, outlying areas with large populations of these specific demographics.

Anomalies such as these have been noted within each section and local jurisdictions should be engaged to verify specific demographic groups whose densities may appear questionable.


6.1 Population with at least One Disability

Persons with at least one disability of any kind within Benton County are shown in Figure 6‐1. High concentrations of this demographic appear throughout the county and areas of note are the central and northern areas of the county. Prairie Creek, the Lost Bridge Village community, Bella Vista, an area north of Siloam Springs and an area west of Garfield have higher concentrations of persons with a disability compared to the county average. An area northwest of Bentonville also has a higher concentration. Areas containing persons with disabilities are candidates for improved public transportation accessibility.

Figure 6‐1: Persons with at least One Disability – Benton County


Closer inspection of the central area of Benton County (Figure 6‐2) shows Prairie Creek, northwestern Rogers and north of Bentonville containing areas of higher concentration of persons with at least one disability. Only the central areas of Rogers and Bentonville have transit service for this population group. Certain disabilities, such as those requiring use of a wheelchair, or disabilities precluding use of traditional transit service, may require specialized accommodations in these instances. It is important to note the smaller zones in central Bentonville and Rogers may have up to 25 persons with at least one disability and these central areas, taken together, may represent a larger total than outlying areas with greater numbers.

Figure 6‐2: Persons With at Least One Disability in Central Benton County


Washington County has four zones containing 250 or more residents having with least one disability, as shown in Figure 6‐3. These areas are southeast of Prairie Grove, within Bethel Heights and the area south of Hobbs State Park. Higher populations of these persons north of Lincoln may actually reside closer to Lincoln as opposed to closer to Benton County. A similar explanation can be said for the area southeast of Prairie Grove and the area near Hobbs State Park. The area near Hobbs State Park and southeast of Prairie Grove may be anomalies based on higher populations within their respecitive census tracts. Areas with higher numbers of disabled persons may be potential areas for expanded service.

Figure 6‐3: Persons with at least One Disability in Washington County


A closer view in the Fayetteville/Springdale area of Washington County (Figure 6‐4) shows the higher concentrations of persons with at least one disability residing within Springdale, Johnson and Fayetteville. Many of these areas have or are near ORT service, but due to disability, these populations may be sensitive to distance and may require additional service.

Figure 6‐4: Persons with at least One Disability in Fayetteville/Springdale Area


6.2 Minority populations

Figures 6‐5 and 6‐6 display locations of higher concentrations of populations considered to be minority ethnicities in Benton County. Higher concentrations can be found east of Rogers, Bentonville, Siloam Springs and the community of Lost Bridge Village.

Figure 6‐5: Minority Populations in Benton County


Figure 6‐6: Minority Populations in Central Benton County


Minorities in Washington County can be found in the central cities of Springdale, Johnson and Fayetteville, with other communities southeast of Prairie Grove and south of Hobbs State Park (Figures 6‐7 and 6‐8). As with the disability map, the areas near Hobbs State Park and southeast of Prairie Grove may be anomalies based on population density or geographic size within their respective census tracts.

Figure 6‐7: Minority Populations in Washington County


Closer inspection of the central Washington County area shows higher concentrations of persons with at least one disability north and south of Springdale just west of US 71 and near the University. Other areas with higher concentrations are near Farmington.

Figure 6‐8: Minority Populations in Fayetteville/Springdale Area


6.3 Households Below Poverty

The US Census Bureau’s poverty status in 1999 of households (for 2000) was used for this analysis. This in turn was projected and proportioned to yield the following maps (Figures 6‐9 through 6‐12). From this analysis, the largest concentrations of households in Benton County below poverty are located east of Rogers and in rural areas throughout the county. The highest concentration of poverty (more than 250 households) is in the central area of the county in downtown and east of Rogers.

Figure 6‐9: Households Below Poverty in Benton County


Figure 6‐10: Households Below Poverty in Central Benton County


Washington County has concentrations of households below poverty located west of Bethel Heights, north of Fayetteville and southeast of Prairie Grove. The area south of Hobbs State Park is again an area with a high concentration of the particular demographic. Again, these areas may be anomalies based on geographic size or population base within their respective census tracts and should be verified.

Figure 6‐11: Households Below Poverty in Washington County


Figure 6‐12: Households Below Poverty in Fayetteville/Springdale Area


6.4 Households with No Vehicles

Figures 6‐13 and 6‐14 indicate areas of Benton County where there are households without use of a personal vehicle. Areas east of Rogers, north of Bentonville, around Lost Bridge Village and, in general, rural areas, are places with households having no vehicles. Because of the lack of transportation options, these households in particular are likely in need of transit services.

Figure 6‐13: Households with Zero Vehicles in Benton County


Figure 6‐14: Households with Zero Vehicles in Central Benton County


Households with zero vehicles in Washington County are primarily located north of Fayetteville and southeast of Prairie Grove (Figures 6‐15 and 6‐16). The large concentrations of households without vehicles south of Prairie Grove and Farmington may actually be closer to US 62 than actually shown.

Figure 6‐15: Households with Zero Vehicles in Washington County


Figure 6‐16: Households with Zero Vehicles in Fayetteville/Springdale Area


7.0 Longitudinal Employer‐Household Dynamics

Data comes from the 2007 Longitudinal Employer‐Household Dynamics (LEHD) Program conducted by the US Census. Federal and state data on employers and employees used in conjunction with U.S. Census data provides local and state employment data sets. For this project, LEHD data was identified for the following major employment areas:

Central area of Bentonville (including Wal‐Mart) – 10,561 employees

Downtown Rogers area – 17,151 employees

Central area of Springdale (including Tyson Foods) – 31,205 employees

Northwest Arkansas Mall area – 3,260 employees

University of Arkansas/Downtown Fayetteville area –4,914 employees

Figures 7‐1 through 7‐5 present home locations of employees that work in each of these geographic areas. The legends for each figure describe the shaded areas which depict the concentration of workers for each county. It is important to note that scales vary between maps. Existing ORT and Razorback Transit bus routes are overlaid to provide a reference to what areas within each labor shed are covered by existing bus service.

General conclusions from these figures are as follows:

Home locations for Central Bentonville employees are very linear, and south along the I‐540 corridor.

Home locations for downtown Rogers employees are also linear, but include significant distributions of employees from the north (Bella Vista) and east‐west.

Home locations for central Springdale employees are more concentric, with employees residing in all directions from their work location.

Home locations for employees that work in the NWA Mall area are highest from Fayetteville and Springdale.

Home locations for University of Arkansas/Downtown Fayetteville employees are also along the I‐540 corridor, but with the largest concentration in Fayetteville and Springdale.


Figure 7‐1 Home Locations of Employees that Work In Bentonville/Wal‐Mart Area


Figure 7‐2 Home Locations of Employees that Work In Downtown Rogers Area


Figure 7‐3 Home Locations of Employees that Work In Central Springdale/Tyson Foods Area


Figure 7‐4 Home Locations of Employees that Work In NWA Mall Retail Area


Figure 7‐5 Home Locations of Employees that Work In University of Arkansas/Downtown Fayetteville Area


8.0 Future Population Projections Population projections come from the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) files provided by the Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission. Household population for the year 2030 was compared against population for the year 2010 to yield percent change over those 20 years. Anticipated population gains for Benton and Washington Counties are as follows:

Table 8‐1: Current, Future and Percent Change in Population for Both Counties

County 2010 Population 2030 Population Change (%)

Benton 219,673 351,109 59.8%

Washington 215,780 326,624 51.4%

Total 435,453 677,733 55.6%

Figures 8‐1 and 8‐2 present population changes by TAZ for Benton County between 2010 and 2030. The greatest gains in population appear to be in parts of the county west of Lowell, Rogers and Bentonville, but not as far west as AR 59. This may indicate a continuing trend of low‐density development away from traditional population centers. Conversely, areas in downtown Bentonville and Rogers are anticipated to have minimal population changes over the next two decades, and even some losses.

Figure 8‐1: 2010‐2030 Population Growth in Benton County


Figure 8‐2: 2010‐2030 Population Growth in Central Benton County


Figures 8‐3 and 8‐4 present forecasted 2030 population densities for Benton County in units of persons per acre. Much of the growth, as explained previously, will occur just west of I‐540 outside of Bentonville and Rogers. However, most of the density will remain in the central cities of Bella Vista, Bentonville, Rogers, Cave Springs, Lowell and Bethel Heights, in other words, around the I‐540 corridor. Densities of between 1 and 10 persons per acre will be common in these areas.

Figure 8‐3: 2030 Population Densities in Benton County


Figure 8‐4: 2030 Population Densities Central Benton County


Figures 8‐5 and 8‐6 present the projected population change for Washington County. Areas generally outside of central Fayetteville and Springdale are expected to see the highest increases. Tontitown is expected to see the highest increases of population change, with areas outside of Prairie Grove and Farmington also seeing significant growth. Springdale is anticipated to see slight population loss in its core area.

Figure 8‐5: 2010‐2030 Population Growth in Washington County


Figure 8‐6: 2010‐2030 Population Growth in Fayetteville/Springdale Area


Figures 8‐7 and 8‐8 present anticipated 2030 population densities for Washington County. The highest density continues to occur in downtown Fayetteville and Springdale with lessening densities occurring away from these core areas. Densities higher than 20 persons per acre are forecasted for areas around the University of Arkansas campus as well as downtown Springdale. Areas along US 71 are expected to intensify as well.

Figure 8‐7: 2030 Population Densities in Washington County


Figure 8‐8: 2030 Population Densities in Fayetteville/Springdale Area


9.0 Future Employment Projections Employment projections also come from the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) files provided by the Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission. Employment for the year 2030 was compared against employment for the year 2010 to yield percent change over those 20 years. Anticipated employment gains for Benton and Washington Counties are as follows:

Table 9‐1: Current, Future and Percent Change in Employment for Both Counties

County 2010 Employment 2030 Employment Change (%)

Benton County 113,023 177,651 57.2%

Washington County 117,961 176,597 49.7%

Total 230,984 354,248 53.4%

Figures 9‐1 and 9‐2 present employment changes by TAZ for Benton County between 2010 and 2030. The greatest gains in employment appear to be occurring in the core of Bentonville and Rogers, primarily along the I‐540 and US 71 corridor, towards the northwest area of Bentonville, and in Lowell. Density patterns (shown in Figures 9‐3 and 9‐4) are similar to existing patterns, with increased intensities.

Figure 9‐1: 2010‐2030 Employment Growth in Benton County


Figure 9‐2: 2010‐2030 Employment Growth in Central Benton County


Figure 9‐3: 2030 Employment Densities in Benton County


Figure 9‐4: 2030 Employment Densities Central Benton County


Figures 9‐5 and 9‐6 present the projected employment change for Washington County. Areas with large gains of employment include Tontitown, the central area of Springdale (along the Sunset Avenue corridor), the Northwest Arkansas Regional Mall area, and south of Fayetteville. The greatest densities of employment are primarily along Business US 71, as shown in Figures 9‐7 and 9‐8.

Figure 9‐5: 2010‐2030 Employment Growth in Washington County


Figure 9‐6: 2010‐2030 Employment Growth in Fayetteville/Springdale Area


Figure 9‐7: 2030 Employment Densities in Washington County


Figure 9‐8: 2030 Employment Densities in Fayetteville/Springdale Area


10.0 Potential Transit Service Needs

The demographic data and growth elements previously presented in this report have been compared to the existing transit network to determine areas where new transit services or expanded transit services may be warranted. Potential service expansion needs were identified as follows:

10.1 Benton County

New Growth Areas – Population forecasts reflect significant growth in areas west of Bentonville and west/southwest of Rogers. New local route services may be warranted in these areas.

Low Income Areas – The demographic analysis identified some concentrations of low income/zero auto households east of Rogers where expanded/new local transit services may be warranted.

Elderly Services – The community of Bella Vista has a fairly high concentration of elderly citizens, along with the central area of Rogers and Siloam Springs. Services oriented towards the elderly should be considered for these areas.

Siloam Springs – This community is located in the far west portion of Benton County. There are concentrations of population and employment in this community, but there is no existing transit service. Local route service with connections to Bentonville/Rogers should be considered.

Commuter Services – Benton County is home to major employers, such as Wal‐Mart. Analysis presented in this Technical Memorandum has identified concentrations of employees that live along the I‐540 corridor. Regional commuter services to these major employment centers warrants consideration.

10.2 Washington County

New Growth Areas – Population forecasts reflect significant growth in areas west of I‐540, directly west of Springdale (Tontitown), the east side of Springdale, West Fayetteville and Farmington. New local route services may be warranted in these areas.

Low Income Areas – The demographic analysis identified moderate concentrations of low income/zero auto households southwest of Fayetteville.

University of Arkansas – The University of Arkansas has a student population of close to 20,000 undergraduates and graduates. Student transit service needs are presently accommodated by Razorback Transit, although there may be potential to increase usage through route alignment and service frequency modifications. Faculty and staff come from longer distances, with many coming from the Springdale area. Expanded transit service to the University of Arkansas from other areas of the region is likely warranted.

Commuter Services – Besides the University of Arkansas, there are other major employers in Washington County including Tyson Foods in south Springdale. Washington Regional Medical Center and the Northwest Medical Center in Springdale are two major medical facilities with large employment bases. There is also a significant amount of retail employment around the Northwest Arkansas Mall area. Travel to these areas comes from all over the two‐county area, and may warrant regional/commuter transit services.


10.3 Service Needs in Areas Presently Served by Transit

There are other factors to consider besides the proximity of a transit route alignment when traveling to a particular destination. Those factors include: route alignment directness, span of service, availability of weekend service and service frequencies. For example, the central areas of Bentonville and Rogers are served by ORT routes. But, one can argue that these areas are underserved, for these routes operate in loop patterns (resulting in long transit travel times), at infrequent service levels (60‐minute frequencies) and they do not operate in the evenings or on weekends. Residents that have access to an automobile are unlikely to consider using transit under these conditions. Thus, there is a market for increasing transit usage in existing service areas by addressing service deficiencies. It is, of course, important to note that these existing deficiencies exist today because of funding constraints.

The last two maps shown in Figures 10‐1 and 10‐2 display a comprehensive view of all demographic groups outlined in the previous chapters of this Technical Memorandum. Figure 10‐1 identifies current data while Figure 10‐2 shows the projected data to 2030. As in previous maps, color scales range from light green (low density) to dark blue (high density) but are depicted at different scales. Together, these two maps identify the areas with the strongest propensity for transit use but do not depict specific numbers here.

Figure 10‐1: 2010 Comprehensive Transit Propensity


Figure 10‐2: 2030 Comprehensive Transit Propensity

tech memo 6 - nwarpc-tdp latent demand analysis...a latent demand analysis that is based on existing...

Documents