technical analysis ala fundamental analyst
DESCRIPTION
Technical Analysis methods that are frequently used by Fundamental AnalystTRANSCRIPT
Technical Analysisala Fundamental Analyst
MM Dandytra, CSA, CFTe
Technical Analysis (CFTe Version)John J. Murphy• “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets”• The study of market action through the use of chats for the
purpose of forecasting future price trends
Martin J. Pring• “Technical Analysis Explained”• The art to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage
and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed
John D. Magee and Roberts D. Edwards• “Technical Analysis of Stocks Trends”• The science of recording in graphic form the actual history
of trading and then deducing from that pictured history the probable future trend
The Use of Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis
Trend Analysis
Timing Analysis
Price Analysis
Investment Strategy
Decision & Action
Technical Analysis Branches
Technical Analysis
Classic Modern (Indicators)
Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis
Basic Theory
Dow Jones Theory
Trend Analysis
Supply Demand
Line Analysis
Support Resistance
Trendline
Channel
Price Pattern Analysis
Candlestick
Bar Chart
Gap Analysis
Chart Pattern Analysis
Reversal Pattern
Continuation Pattern
Hybrid Pattern
Volume Analysis
Spesific Theory
Elliot Wave
Gann Method
Fibonacci Method
Indicators
Indicators
Indicators
Momentum
Stochastic Oscillator
RSI
Trend Following
Moving Average
MACD
Volume
On Balance Volume
Volatility
Bollinger Band
Average Trading Range
Sentiment
Market Breadth
Advance Decline
Quantitative Methods
Standard Deviation
Linear Regression
Line
Technical Analysis’ Premises Price Discounts Everything Price Moves in Trend History Repeats Itself
Detail Definition of Technical Analysis
Technical AnalysisJohn J. Murphy• “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets”• The study of market action through the use of charts for the
purpose of forecasting future price trends
Martin J. Pring• “Technical Analysis Explained”• The art to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage
and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed
John D. Magee and Roberts D. Edwards• “Technical Analysis of Stocks Trends”• The science of recording in graphic form the actual history
of trading and then deducing from that pictured history the probable future trend
Objects Actual History of Market Action Recording in Graphic Form or Charts
Market Action are Price Volume Open Interest (in Futures Market)
Objectives Deducing From That The Probable Future Trend Forecasting Future Price Trends or A Trend Reversal
Time Relatively Early Stage Until Weight of the Evidence The Trend Has
Reversed
The Point Is ...
Everything that “use” Historical Data to predict Future Movement is a Technical AnalysisFULL STOP !
Market Analyst
Fundamental Analysis
Economic Analysis
Technical Analysis
Bandarmologi (Tape
Reading)
STRATEGIST
Experience
History Repeat Itself & Price Moves in Trend
Cycle and Seasonality
Cycle
• Kondratieff• Presidential• 40 Months
Coal Newcastle
Seasonality
• Ramadhan• January Effect• Windows
Dressing• Sell in May
and Go Away
January Effect in JCI
January Effect terjadi 15 kali sejak tahun 1991 (23tahun) sehingga peluang terjadinya adalah 65.2%
Windows Dressing in JCI
Sejak tahun 1990, IHSG pada akhir bulan Desember selalu naikdibanding akhir bulan November kecuali pada tahun 1992, 1994 dan2000
MoM Inflation
Inflasi MoM cenderung turun dari 1Q hingga 2Q lalu kemudian naik lagi hingga awal 3Q kemudian menjelang 4Q namun kembali naik di akhir 4Q
CPIN Near Ramadhan
CPIN naik minimal 24% hingga 93% dua bulan menjelang Lebaran antara 2009 hingga 2012
Siklus 40 Bulan Batubara Newcaslte
Kondratieff Cycle and Presidential Cycle
(Fundamental) Trend Analysis
Uptrend and Downtrend
HH
HH
HL
HL
HH : Higher HighHL : Higher Low
LH : Lower HighLL : Lower Low
LL
LL
LH
LH
UPTREND
DOWNTREND
Standard Definition in “Opposite”
Technical Rebound A temporary and
relatively small rise during Downtrend
Technical Correction A temporary and
relatively small fall during Uptrend
Technical Rebound
Technical Correction
Trend Analysis
Trend
• Uptrend• Downtrend
Strengthening Trend
• Accelerating Uptrend
• Accelerating Downtrend
Against Trend
• Deccelerating Uptrend
• Deccelerating Downtrend
• Technical Rebound
• Technical Correction
Trend Reversal
• Bullish Reversal
• Bearish Reversal
Rising YoY ; Rising QoQ
1Q12
4Q12
1Q13
YoY
QoQ
Rising YoY ; Falling QoQ
1Q12
4Q12
1Q13
YoY
QoQ
Falling YoY ; Rising QoQ
1Q12
4Q12
1Q13
YoY
QoQ
Falling YoY ; Falling QoQ
1Q12
4Q12
1Q13
YoY
QoQ
Financial Statement – Trend Analysis Trend Uptrend
YoY Rise and QoQ Rise Downtrend
YoY Fall and QoQ Fall
Strengthening Trend Accelerating Uptrend
QoQ Rise > YoY Rise Accelerating Downtrend
QoQ Fall > YoY Fall
Against Trend Deccelerating Uptrend
QoQ Rise < YoY Rise Deccelerating Downtrend
QoQ Fall < YoY Fall Technical Correction
YoY Rise but QoQ Fall Technical Rebound
YoY Fall but QoQ Rise
Chart Pattern Types
Reversal Pattern
Bullish
Double / Triple Bottoms
Inverted Head and Shoulders
Bearish
Double / Triple Tops
Head and Shoulders
Continuation Pattern
Bullish
Ascending Triangle
Falling Wedges
Bullish Flag
Cup and Handle
Bearish
Descending Triangle
Rising Wedges
Bearish Flag
Hybrid Pattern
Symmetrical Triangle Rectangle Rounding Top Rounding
Bottom
Double / Triple Tops
The Pattern Previous Condition & Expected Movement
Previous Condition : Uptrend
Expected Movement Downtrend
Target Price
The Height between two or three Tops to Baseline, projected Downward
Example
Head and Shoulders
The Pattern Previous Condition & Expected Movement
Previous Condition : Uptrend
Expected Movement Downtrend
Target Price
Height between Head and Neckline, projected Downward
Example
Inflasi YoY – Inverted Head and Shoulders
Logic Technical Analysis’ Indicators
Technical Analysis’ Indicators
Indicators
Momentum
Stochastic Oscillator
RSI
Trend Following
Moving Average
MACD
Volume
On Balance Volume
Volatility
Bollinger Band
Average Trading Range
Sentiment
Market Breadth
Advance Decline
Quantitative Methods
Standard Deviation
Linear Regression
Line
Logic Indicators (So Far ...) Moving Average Bollinger Band Rate of Change
The Basic of Moving Average Averaging certain periods Price above MA = Bullish Price below MA = Bearish Short MA above Long MA = Bullish Short MA below Long MA = Bearish
Fundamental Moving Average MA20 ~ 1 Month ~ MoM MA60 ~ 3 Months ~
Quarterly or QoQ MA200 ~ 1 Year ~
Yearly or YoY
MA20 is a Monthly Average Price
MA60 is a Quarterly Average Price
MA200 is a Yearly Average Price
MA20 above MA60 = Monthly Average Price is
above Quarterly Average Price
MoM Rise > QoQ Rise MoM Price > QoQ Price
MA60 above MA200 = Quarterly Average Price
is above Yearly Average Price
QoQ Rise > YoY Rise QoQ Price > YoY Price
The Basic of Bollinger Band Bollinger Band = MA20 and +/- 2x Standard
Deviation of MA20 Middle Band (MA20) Upper Band (+2x Standard Deviation of MA20) Lower Band (-2x Standard Deviation of MA20)
+/- 2x Standard Deviation = ~95% Datas are Within The Band
Fundamental Bollinger Band
Squeeze
Squeeze
Bulge
Bulge
The Basic of Rate of Change Rate of Change (RoC) is a percentage of change for
certain period RoC 14 = 20% means there is a 20% rise from 14
days ago to current price
RoC 20 = MoM Change RoC 60 = QoQ Change RoC 200 = YoY Change
Fundamental Rate of Change
Liquidity
Supply Demand Theory
When Demand > Supply = Price Rise When Demand < Supply = Price Fall
Capital Market
Demand Supply
Buyers or Bull-ishers Increase in Funds or
Investor Monetary Expantion
Sellers or Bear-ishers Initial Public Offering Rights Issue
Basic Volume AnalysisPrice Volume Indication Explanation
Rise Rise Bullish Volume Confirms TrendRise Fall Bearish Volume Against TrendFall Rise Bearish Volume Confirms TrendFall Fall Bullish Volume Against Trend
Compare today’s price and previous (mostly yesterday) prices to determine the Rise or Fall of Price and Volume
U.S Quantitative Easing 1st, 2nd and the 3rd
Why Market Capitalization Matter ? Easy Come – Easy Go Less Trail Better Good Corporate
Governance Industry Leader Better Future Prospect Going (less) Concern
Current Biggest Market Cap in JCI : HMSP Rp363.8tr ASII Rp269.2tr BBCA Rp236.8tr UNVR Rp221.3tr TLKM Rp218.7tr BBRI Rp188tr PGAS Rp139.4tr SMGR Rp94.6tr GGRM Rp94.5tr
Intermarket Analysis
Economic Cycle
Intermarket Analysis
Stocks Market
Bonds Market
Money Market
Commodities Market
JCI vs Gov. Bond 10Yr
JCI vs Inflation YoY
JCI vs USD-IDR
Any Questions ?
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CSA, CFTe
Working Experiences
Currently as Junior Investment Manager at Mandiri Healthcare
3 year as Technical Analyst at Trimegah Securities, AmCapital Indonesia and Anugerah Securindo Indah
1 year as Equity Sales at Danareksa Sekuritas
Certifications
Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) from IFTA
Bronwen Wood Award 2011 from IFTA
Certified Securities Analyst (CSA) from SASB Indonesia
[email protected] (+62) 813 145 45 317
Contact Information