technical risk management as the connectivity in a capstone design course

8/8/2019 Technical Risk Management as the Connectivity in a Capstone Design Course

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Technical Risk Management as the Connectivity in aCapstone Design Course

Abstract

More and more of today's high-tech industries are adopting Technical Risk Management (TRM) approaches as a

means of improving the likelihood of success of their programs and also to prioritize their tasks and achieve

optimum balancing of their technical resources. An introduction to TRM in the university environment will makegraduating students from any Engineering Technology program more valuable in the job marketplace. Additionally,

teaching TRM practices and processes in a capstone design class is an excellent way to achieve connectivity amongthe various individual subjects that have made up the student's course of study.

Introduction

Technical Risk Management (TRM) is a process by which the engineering risks to a project are identified, ranked,and addressed so as to reduce the chances of project failure. In recent years, many high-tech industries have begun to

actively institute TRM as a part of major design programs. A recent Aerospace Risk Analysis Survey stated,

"Increasingly, Government customers and Industry contractors seek better methods to identify and manage technical,

schedule, and cost risk."! The survey goes on to document that 39% of industry representatives surveyed expect

engineers to play the major role in risk management, whereas 33% place that responsibility on the cost estimators,

14% on management and 14% elsewhere. Aerospace is one industry where engineers are being expected to

participate more and more in the management of technical risks. The medical device industry is another such

industry. Ron Kaye and Jay Crowley describe the use of TRM in that field, saying "Risk Management is a systematicapplication of policies, procedures, and practices to the analysis, evaluation, and control of risks. It is a key

component of quality management systems, and is a central requirement of the implementation of design controls in

the Quality Systems Regulation."2 Many U.S. Department of Defense programs have begun requiring that Technical

Risk Management procedures be defined in the proposal stage and that plans for managing technical risk be a part of

every major review. Guidelines for estimating probability of occurrence and magnitude are published as part of

military standard MIL-STD-882, System Safety Program Requirements, which states "A formal safety program that

stresses early hazard identification and elimination or reduction of associated risk to a level acceptable to the

managing activity is the principal contribution to effective system safety."3 The TRM concept must be applied to

virtually all new military contracts. In some cases the plans are subject to monthly tracking by Risk Review Boards

of the contracting agency. Other government agencies are adopting similar practices and a number of hightech businesses are instituting internal requirements for TRM to be part of every program.

The author had the opportunity to be involved in the TRM efforts of several major aerospace programs and

witnessed the benefit to those programs. Lewis Branscomb expressed the situation well in the forward to a

government-sponsored paper entitled Managing Technical Risk,4 when he said "The risks associated with science- based commercial innovations are real and often hard to quantify and circumscribe. These risks contribute to

business failures, but more importantly to underinvestment in the early stages of research and to opportunities


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foregone." The benefits of TRM are so strong that this author believes that any major engineering project would gain

from having an active TRM program, regardless of the level of technology involved.The early identification,

assessment, and mitigation of technical risks greatly diminishes the chance of project failure and associated loss of

revenue, reputation, and jobs. Anything that helps avoid failure is a program benefit, regardless of whether it

involves the design of jet engines or concrete blocks.

For this reason alone, today's engineering and technology graduates would benefit from inclusion of TRM concepts

into the curriculum. Knowledge of TRM concepts before entering the job marketplace will make the graduate more

marketable. But the advantage of inclusion goes beyond that. Properly applied, TRM concepts can easily be used in a

capstone design class as a mechanism for integrating the multitude of building-hlock concepts studied throughout the

entire four-year course of study. This connectivity can he a welcome addition to a Senior Design course. In fact, a

recent national survey of faculty involved in capstone design classes, as reported by James Conrad and Yesim Sireli,

indicated that the least successful performance area for student teams was the "ability to fore see potential risks

involving the project and create contingency plans.""" Instructors rated this skill as between "moderate" and "poor"

for their students, making it the lowest score of any skill set on the survey. This article will endeavor to show how

TRM processes can be used in a capstone design class to help students develop these skills and to better prepare

them for industry.

Implementation Strategies

Regardless of school or curriculum, TRM can be integrated easily into a capstone design course. The TRM process

consists of four phases: Risk Identification. Risk Assessment. Risk Mitigation, and Risk Management. The Risk Identification phase will force the design team to take a serious look at the design with an eye toward possible failure

modes that could hinder success of the project. The Risk Assessment phase will help the team determine which potential failure modes pose the greatest threat to the project, thus helping to prioriti/e the necessary analyses

required to ensure success. This phase has the same effect on the classroom design team that it does on an industrial product team, forcing proper scheduling of tasks and allocation of resources.

The Risk Mitigation phase defines actions to avoid, or at least minimize, the project risk associated with the failure

modes identified and ranked in the previous steps. This phase forces the design team into critical problemsolving

mode early in the program, avoiding last-minute panics. The steps used in the risk mitigation plan will be determined

by the course of study that the students have encountered in their school's program.The concepts presented here can

be easily tailored to any technology curriculum.The final step of the TRM process is Risk Management. In the

industrial world, this step is actually the longest because it involves following through on the mitigation plan,

ensuring that all steps are completed, and that the risk is actually mitigated. This is the one portion of TRM which

cannot be effectively implemented in the course of a semester, since it covers an extended period of time. However,

it must be impressed upon the student that without a follow-through to completion, the first three steps are wasted

effort. The fact that the entireprocess cannot be effectively implemented in a singlesemester does not negate its

value, however. Students are still prepared with the basics of the concept when they enter industry, and the

identification, assessment, and mitigation planning steps can still serve to help them with their capstone projects.

Risk Identification

It is never too early in a design project to identify a potential risk. The author recommendsthat the design team he expected to perform its first risk identification soon after the initialconcept is formulated. A team brainstorming session is a good way to start. Every member


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should try to step back and look at possible failure modes. At this time, all of these shouldbe considered a valid risk to the project, and no effort should be made to determine relativeimportance or to define design solutions to eliminate potential risks. This is the point atwhich the instructor may be required to play the role of objective observer, and point outwhat the team is missing. Any team that only comes up with one or two risks will need

outside guidance. After the initial risk identification, the team should continue to be alert fornew risks that arise as the project proceeds.These may occur because detailed design oranalysis raises new potential issues to the surface. Such new risks should be added to thelist as they become apparent. In fact, a design team which does not uncover new risks as itprogresses is likely not taking an adequately objective view of its efforts.

As an example, consider a Mechanical Engineering Technology Senior Design team tasked with designing a hand-

operated trailer winch system as their capstone design project.When asked to identify the possible failure modes,

they generated the list in Table A.

Risk Assessment

Forcing the design team to take a hard look at possible failure modes is a positive step in and of itself. But how is the

team to deeide which ones need to be addressed first? Industrial TRM programs recognize the need for optimum

prioritization and allocation of resources. They do this by creation of a Risk Assessment, or scoring system. For each

risk identified in the first step, the team should consider its likelihood and its consequence. Likelihood is the

probability that the identified failure might actually occur. These probabilities may ultimately come from probabilistic calculations but in the beginning will probably come from educated estimates based on the amount of

preliminary design work done at any point in time. For example, prior to any analysis being performed, the probability of cable failure in the example team's winch design is on the order of 50%, because the random selection

of a cable sixe does not take into account loading.

In their mathematical treatment of probabilistic risk, Kumamoto and Henley6 prefer that each risk should be"expressed as an objective probability, percentage or density per action or unit time, or during a specified time

interval." But they add,"Unfortunately, the likelihood is not always exact; probability, percentage, frequency, and

ratios may be based on subjective evaluation. Verbal probabilities such as rare, possible, plausible, and frequent are

also used." In fact, at the beginning stage of the design process, exacting calculations are simply not possible, so

subjective assessments must be made by the design team. For the example used in this article, five subjective

graduations (low, minor, moderate, significant, high) will be used.

Next the impact, or consequence should be assessed. Consequences are even harder to relate to hard numbers, and

Kumamoto and Henley7 say that "verbal and ambiguous terms such as catastrophic, severe, and minor may be used

instead of quantitative measures." They also point out that consequences definitely need to be tailored to the

particular project because significance depends on intangibles such as "cultural attributes, ethics, emotion,reconciliation, media coverage, context, or litigability," as well as the fact that "people estimate the outcome

significance differently when population risk is involved in addition to individual risk." Obviously, the consequences

of a failure in a rocket launch are different than in a sewer design. Nonetheless, there are consequences to all

programs, which means that the risk assessment needs to be tailored to each individual program. Program

consequences tend to fall into three types, as follows:


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1. Budget Impact-How big is the monetary impact if the failure occurs? Obviously, a failure that results in the loss of

a rocket and pay load has huge financial implications. But the failure of a sewer system that causes significant

private property damage plus repair and replacement costs can just as easily bankrupt a small design and construction

firm, which makes it catastrophic in its own right. Thus, exactly what constitutes a budget impact of low versus

moderate versus high consequence must be tailored to each individual product.

2. Schedule Impact-Again, schedule impact varies from project to project. On some programs, a delay of three

months may be considered "high impact." On others, a three-week delay may have a huge detrimental impact on the

company, especially if late penalties are written into the contract with the customer.

3. Technical Impact-Technical impact involves the amount of redesign effort required. This would include the

necessary redirection of effort and resources to perform a redesign if the failure occurs.

Again, the impacts must be appropriately related to each individual project. Let's refer again to the trailer winch

design being executed by our example MET Senior Design team and the identified risk of cable breakage. If the

cable breaks during the process of winching the car onto the trailer, the car will suddenly be released and roll

backwards, with the potential for damage or injury to anything or anyone that might be behind the trailer at the

time.This might well be assumed as a high consequence. The winch team might assign probabilities and

consequences to the previously identified risks in the manner shown in Table B.

These probabilities and consequences can now be reduced to a Risk Score via a scoring matrix as shown in Figure 1.

Once again, this matrix can be tailored to specific projects, but in general, risks with both high probability and highconsequence receive the highest risk score. The scoring matrix does two things. First it quantifies the risks in a way

that allows them to be pr ioritized. second, it allows them to be categorized into three simple and easilycomprehensible levels.These levels (High, Medium, and Low) are usually color coded (Red, Yellow, and Green) in

industry as a means of quickly and clearly highlighting which risks are the biggest concern. To the engineer, this

might seem an oversimplification of a complex issue, but as E.L. Jarrett explains, the corporate executive is the

member of the organization who deals ultimately with risk decisions, and "even if it were possible to developcomplex representations of risk accurately, it is difficult for the executive to deal with them. Instead, the executive is

able to deal with a few scenarios and possible cases, and only with three general levels of conceptual risk associated

with them: High Risk, Medium Risk, and Low Risk."8

It can be seen that the scoring matrix in Figure 1 does not equally weight the probability and consequence. One

might initially expect the matrix to be symmetric with regard to determining risk scores. However, industry matrices

are usually skewed slightly toward the consequence axis to better account for the impact of potential failures. This is

another aspect of the process that can be tailored to each individual project.

Referring to the example trailer winch project, and using the scoring matrix from Figure 1, the design team would

generate the risk scores shown in Table C. It is immediately obvious which risks deserve primary attention and

which ones can be dealt with further down the line, or even ignored. In industry, this is a management tool for

allocating resources. In the classroom this gives direction to the design team as to which issues to address first.

Risk Mitigation Plans

This is. in many ways, the most useful and challenging part of TRM. The design team (whether industrial or

academic) must now use their knowledge, skills, and resources to plan and schedule a series of risk mitigation stepsthat will reduce the high risk items to low risk scores. In industry, this is the step that forces the team to plan a course


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of action that reduces the r isk to acceptable levels. Such problem-solving skills need development in the academic

environment where, all too often, the student believes his objective is to simply produce a goodlooking final report

without delving into potential problems. Marcus and Winters9 stated in a recent article that "product-oriented

thinking skills and lack of problemsolving abilities have been identified as problems that inhibit a student's

development." In a Capstone Design Course, this is the stage which can be used to achieve connectivity between

many of the core course topics which have preceded the Senior Design class. In a mechanical curriculum, this iswhere concepts from Statics. Dynamics. Strength of Materials. Materials. Computer Analysis. Thermodynamics,

Fluids. Instrumentation, and Kinematics can all be connected. In an electrical curriculum, the concepts and courses

would be different.This stage is. nonetheless, the place to tie hardware, software, controls, and interface issues

together.

As an example of how this works, let's go back to our example MET Senior Design class and the trailer winch design

effort. After the Risk Assessment stage, the team found that their biggest issue was the ratcheting latch which keeps

the ratcheting gear from allowing the drum to spin backwards, thus preventing the car from rolling back off the

trailer. Now they must come up with a Risk Mitigation plan.

Step 1. The first step is clearly to determine how much load is on the latch. The students should recognize that thistakes them back to their Statics class, where they learned skills that will allow them to use the vehicle weight, and the

slope of the trailer ramp to determine the cable pull. This can then be related to the moment applied to the winchdrum and converted to a resisting force on the latch.

Step 2. Using the concepts from their Strength of Materials class, the team can perform the hand calculations on therough concept of the latch. While Step 1 did not, in and of itself, reduce the risk, it allowed the rough calculations in

Step 2 to give the team a much better feel for the acceptability of the risk.

Step 3. The team can use their recently learned CAD skills to create a three-dimensional model of the latch.

Step 4. Drawing on the concepts from their Materials course, the team can ensure that correct material selection is

being made.

Step 5- Using the CAD model from Step 3, and the finite element modeling techniques learned in their Computer

Analysis class, the team can predict the stresses in the latch. Coupling this with the materials assessment from Step 4

should reduce the probability of failure yet again.

Step 6. Enhancing the design is a possibility. Incorporation of an inertia catch, intended to stop the winch drum if it

begins to spool too quickly (as it would after a latch failure) lowers the consequence of a latch failure.

Step 7. Using techniques learned in their instrumentation class, the team could install a strain gauge on the latch and

test the mechanism under load.

Thus, a mitigation plan has been constructed using a variety of skills drawn from the building-block courses that leadup to the Senior Design Project. Such a mitigation plan would be required for each Red or Yellow item to come out

of the Risk Assessment. Figure 2 shows how the team's plan brings down the risk score to acceptable levels. This can

also be shown even more effectively for scheduling and planning purposes by use of a risk calendar as shown in

Figure 3.The calendar shows the plan of mitigation steps against calendar months, indicating which steps actually

result in a risk score reduction, and how much.This chart is very useful for tracking how the actual steps of the

process are implemented, and is especially useful for TRM reviews to quickly and effectively present status.


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Risk Management

The fourth and final stage of the TRM process is theactual management of the risks. Its objective is ensuring that the

mitigation plan is followed, thus achieving the intended improvements to the program. Identifying, assessing, and

mitigation planning are all pointless unless the plan is followed. The management phase involves the team actually

performing the work outlined in the Mitigation Plan, ensuring that each step is completed. In the example of our semester-long design of a winch system, the students were never intended to take the design to actual hardware

procurement, assembly and testing. However, in industry those would be the ongoing steps and the final TRM phase

would involve tracking the design through to completion of the project. Even without the ability to execute this final

portion of the process, the students will have built the foundations necessary for full implementation and will be

prepared when they encounter the need for a Technical Risk Management Plan in industry.

Conclusion

The concepts of Technical Risk Management can beeasily incorporated into a Capstone Design Class yielding two

major benefits. First, the students must pull together concepts from a variety of classes in order to execute the TRM

process. Secondly, they end their university career knowing the concepts of TRM which gives them another

marketable skill when entering the growing number of industries where Technical Risk Management is becoming a

mandatory part of the design process.

References

1. Black. Mollis. "U. S. Aerospace Risk Analysis Survey." Journal of Cost Analysis & Management, Winter issue,(2001): 1.

2. Kaye, Ron & Crowley. Jay. "Medical Device Use-Safety: Incorporating Human Factors Engineering into Risk

Management." U.S. Depl. of Health and Human Services Guidance for Industry and FDA Pretnarket and Design

Control Reviewers, U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services, Washington D.C., (2000): 8.

3.MIL-STD-H82H, System Safety Program Requirements. U.S. Department of Defense, Washington D.C., AMSCF3329,(1984):2.

4. Branscomb, Lewis, et al. Managing Technical Risk, U.S. Department of Commerce, NIST GCR 00-787, (2000):

n.p.

5. Conrad,James & Sirel.Yesim."Learning Project Management Skills in Senior Design Courses? Proceedings of the

35th ASEE/IEEE Frontiers in Education Conference, Indianapolis, Indiana. (2005): F4D-1.

6. Kumamoto, Hiromitsu & Ernest Henley. Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and

Scientists. IEEE Press, 1996, 2.

7. Kumamoto, Hiromitsu & Ernest Henley. Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers andScientists. IEEE Press, 1996, 22.

8. Jarrett, E.L. "Effect of Technical Elements of Business Risk on Decision Making"Managing Technical Risk, U.S.

Department of Commerce, NIST GCR 00-787, (2000): 75.

9. Marcus, Michael and Dixie Winters. "Team Problem-Solving Strategies with a Survey of These Methods Used by

Faculty Members in Engineering Technology," Journal of STEM Education, VoI 5, Issue 1 & 2, (2004): 24.


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technical risk management as the connectivity in a capstone design course

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