technical smart money fundamentals psychology analysis · 2020. 10. 10. · bullish patterns:...
TRANSCRIPT
Technical Analysis
Smart Money Fundamentals Psychology
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Disclaimer
The following presentation is for educational purpose only, to understand the concept of technicalanalysis and other studies. We don’t intend anyone to trade or invest based on this educationalpresentation, nor we are liable for any losses of any decision taken based on this presentation.
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Technical
Analysis
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Top Down Analysis➢ Monthly➢ Weekly➢ Daily
Identify Market Structure➢ Patterns➢ Support & Resistance➢ Long term Trendline➢ Volume and Delivery activity
To Add: ➢ Pattern within Pattern➢ Fibonacci retracements➢ Averages➢ Indicators
How to find the winning trades
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➢ Bullish Patterns: Rounding bottom, Multi year breakout, Double Bottom, Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern, Pole and Flag, etc
➢ Fibonacci retracement ratios
➢ Pickup in volumes and delivery %
➢ Institutional & HNI activity - Increase in Bulk & Block deal
➢ Comparative strength vs Peers vs Sectors vs Benchmark
➢ Liquidity, Index inclusion, Portfolio Concentration
➢ Buy Value stocks only once momentum sets in otherwise stuck in consolidation
➢ Stop loss either on time or particular % correction whichever is earlier depending on market cap
➢ Small Cap - Art of Exit
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Top Down AnalysisMonthly
S D M13 J S D M14 J S D M15 J S D M16 J S D M17 J S D M18 J S D M19 J S D M20 J S
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1-Info Edge (india) Limited - 09/10/20 F7Net
Monthly
QtyLine, Avg(QtyLine:S:10), DelQtyLine
Long term uptrendHigh top High Bottom formation
Though price below low of 1830, it bounce back to close above it
March fall
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Top Down AnalysisWeekly
O N D F18 M A M J J A O N D J19 F M M J J A S O N J20 F M A M J J S O
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1-Info Edge (india) Limited - 09/10/20 F7Net
Weekly
Avg(CloseLine:S:50)
QtyLine, Avg(QtyLine:S:10), DelQtyLine
50 week moving average support
Price quickly moved back above average
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Top Down AnalysisDaily
18 O 16 30 N 26 D 20 J20 16 29 F 24 M 20 A 21 M 18 J 12 25 J 21 A 14 27 S 22 O
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1-Info Edge (india) Limited - 09/10/20 F7Net
Daily
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Stock is consolidating above it previous high before next leg of up move
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Patterns
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Rounding Bottom
M J J A S O N D J16 F M A 29 M J J A S O N D J17 F M 31 A M J J A S O N D J18 F M 28 A M J J A S
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1-Dabur India Ltd. - 31/07/19 F7
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QtyLine
Breakout
Breakout Volume
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260
Height =320-260=60
Target = 320 + 60 = 380
Retest of breakout level
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Double Bottom
S O N D J15 F M A M J J 31 A S O N D J16 F M A M J J 29 A S O N
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1-Tata Motors Limited - 29/07/19 F7
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Neckline
Botto m#1
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280
Botto m#2
Momentum Breakout
High volume on Breakout
Height =430-280 =150
Target = 430+150 = 580
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A M J J A S O D J16 F M A M J A S O N D J17 M A M J J A S N D
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1-BATA INDIA LTD. - 26/07/19 F7
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Bullish/Inverted Head and Shoulders
Source: Seediff
Neckline
Right Shoulder
Head
Left Shoulder
BreakoutHeight =605-400 =205
Target = 585+205 =790
Volumes on breakout
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Be opportunistic
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• Universal Cables – M – Line chart
• Vol – smart
• Avenue – Future Retail - Vmart
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Two year consolidation
Volume
Higher the consolidation, the better..
38%
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J14 A J A O J15 M M A O D M16 M J S D F17 A J S N F18 A J A N J19 M J A O
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1-V-MART RETAIL LIMITED - 13/12/19 F7
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430%
• Page Industries
• Britannia
• KEC
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160Breakout
Multi year high breakout
• Page Industries
• Britannia
• KEC
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110%
Breakout
VOLUMES
M 30 J J A S O N D J15 F M A 30 M J J A S O N D J16 F M A 29 M J J A S O N D J17 F M 31 A M J J A S O
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1-SHAKTI PUMPS (INDIA) LIMI - 31/07/19 F7
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QtyLine
Breakout
Breakout Volume
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95
Height =280-95=185
Target = 280 + 195 = 475
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Comparative Strength vs Peers vs Sectors vs Benchmark
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Mapping Fundamentals with Technical
Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis
1. Concentrates on the financial drivers of the economy itself
1. Focuses solely on charts and past price behaviors
2. Re-Rating Criteria Earnings, Earnings and Earnings
2. Re-Rating CriteriaBuyers become aggressive than sellers
3. Focus on factors like ROCE,ROE,PE etc.
3. Focus on factors likeMoving Averages, Breakouts etc.
4. Strategy It is used to find the intrinsic value of the company to evaluate whether the stock is overprices or underpriced
4. Strategy It is used to find the right entry and exit point of a stock.
5. Examples ITC Limited is a strong company with huge amount of cash on books and having a high dividend yield.
5. ExamplesITC Limited is a great company but not having significant buyer interest thereby indicating that, sellers are more aggressive than buyersTwitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Good Business Good Cycle – Buy on dips, Buy on Rallieseg HDFC Bank, Nestle India, Infosys, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finance
Good Business Bad Cycle – Be Opportunisticeg Tata Steel, L&T
Bad Business Good Cycle – Buy on every breakout, Sell on first significant reversaleg HEG, Rain Industries,
Bad Business Bad Cycle– Don’t toucheg JP Associates, RCOM, HCC,etc
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Define your company
Covid-19 Leading to a Structural Change in Business
• Post Break-out of Covid-19 globally, businesses had come to a standstill impacting each Industry in the worst possible manner. The breakout of Covid-19, impacted health taking several lives unlike the 2008 financial crisis.
• Outbreak of Covid-19, forced people to change the way of doing business i.e. work from home, maintaining social distancing, Promoting Online Sales, etc.
• Currently, the focus of every company is to operate with maximum utilization of resources and minimum health impact.
• As said that there is always brightness after dark night, two sectors have witnessed structural change in their business model which are as under –Information Technology & Pharmaceuticals
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Information TechnologyEvery dimension of Tech Industry will see a structural shift as relevance and value of technology to the client has never been higher
- Rajesh Gopinathan, MD & CEO, TCS
• Tech Industry is at the cusp of a significant growth phase as last 6 months have accelerated the acceptance of Digital tech in business across industries and geographies.
• Remote and collaborative models are in focus as clients try to merge Work from Home with Work From Office
• Companies are moving workload to cloud and cloud is the new ERP, but true business value will be unlocked when digital core is transformed
• Growth will be in phases where Phase 1 will be to improve resilience of infrastructure and shift the core of the organization to a Digital core. Phase 2 will involve companies using the Digital Core in phase 1 as a stage to transform the organization at an application and business processes level
• Currently the Clients look for quality and understand the value of stability in vendors during current times, hence companies with strong balance sheets with cash on books followed by its global presence. Example – TCS has cash on books of INR 53,000 crores (~5% of Market Cap)
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Healthcare & PharmaceuticalsThis pandemic has made the entire world realize the need to reimagine supply chains
- Charu Sehgal, Partner & Leader Lifesciences & Healthcare, Deloitte
• Globally Pharmaceuticals as a sector, has been in limelight since a while mainly due to events relating to Drug and vaccine discovery for Covid-19.
• However it is pertinent to not that, India has been a major player in the Generic medicine world in terms of cost, quality, manufacturing size and scale.
• A pharmaceutical industry is broadly divided in API and formulations. Under the API segment, high dependence China was a worry where Indian companies are gradually making there space. In fact, most companies have a dependence of between as low as 20 per cent but as high as 80 per cent.
• The recent Govt of India has announcement in April 2020, of INR 10000 crore of investments to incentivize production of APIs in India, is a first sign of things changing in India
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F11 J O F12 J O F13 J O F14 J O F15 J O F16 J O F17 J O F18 J O F19 J O
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1-Ipca Laboratories Ltd. - 09/10/20 F7Net
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Consolidation/ Base formation
Consolidation after breakout
Start of fresh up move
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N M12 J N M13 J N M14 J N M15 J N M16 J N M17 J N M18 J N M19 J N M20 J
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Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
A J O J16 A J O J17 A J O J18 A J O J19 A J O J20 A J O
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1-Granules India Limited - 09/10/20 F7Net
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Consolidation at breakout level
Pick up in volumes and then breakout on high volumes
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
A J O J16 A J O J17 A J O J18 A J O J19 A J O J20 A J O
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1-Granules India Limited - 09/10/20 F7Net
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Consolidation at breakout level
Pick up in volumes and then breakout on high volumes
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➢ Good Business – Pricing power & Competition, Sectoral Tailwind, Entry Barrier, Brand, Reputation Government Dependency, Industry Size, Innovation, Strategic Assets
➢ Good Management – High Corporate Governance, Strong Parentage, Promoter Holding, Focus of Management (Z,E), Pledge
➢ Political Connection
➢ Capital Intensity and Capital Efficiency of Industry
➢ Debt Levels – Avoid highly leveraged B/S, Low interest coverage ratio
➢ Increasing working capital cycle is concern, Cash conversion cycle
➢ Operating profit to convert into Cash Flow from Operations (50%)
➢ Consistency in Revenue, EBITDA and PAT growth
➢ Good reasonable ROC and ROCE
➢ ROCE (10 year G-Sec Yield + Long term Equity Premium) > 15%
➢ Ten year cycle – Upcycle Downcycle
➢ Sector tailwind
➢ Revenue growth 10% for a decade, nominal GDP growth 14.5%.
➢ ROCE – EBIT/Capital Employed (ROCE > WACC)
➢ CAGR in Auditor renumeration vs CAGR in consolidated Revenue
Fundamentals
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Recent
Case Studies
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Reliance Industries
➢ Cash cow businesses Refining and Petchem remain strong
➢ Petchem capex nearing completion
➢ New businesses Retail and Telecom to drive growth
➢ Retail business in place
➢ Jio in free trail period and crosses 100 million subscribers, soon to start billing
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Reliance Industries
S J08 M S J09 M S J10 M S J11 M S J12 M S J13 M S J14 M S J15 M S J16 M S J17
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1-Reliance Industries Ltd - 12/12/19 F7
Monthly
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Multi year consolidation8 years
Symmetrical Triangle Pattern
600
Higher volumes on up move
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Reliance Industries
J D M08 O M09 A J10 J N A11 S F12 J D M13 O M14 A J15 J N A16 S F17 J D M18 O M19 A
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1-Reliance Industries Ltd - 12/12/19 F7
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194% in 33 months
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Mutual Fund Industry
➢ Indian MF AUM as a share of GDP (11%) remains significantly lower than the world average of 62%
➢ Indian Mutual Fund has grown at CAGR of 17.4% over last 10 years, which is only second to China and twice ofGlobal AUM. India is 7th largest economy in the world, yet ranks 17th in terms of Mutual Fund AUM.
➢ Indian household savings as a percentage of GDP have declined over the recent past, RBI data indicate thathouseholds are moving higher shares of their savings to financial assets
➢ Within financial assets, the share of non-bank deposit instruments like mutual funds and insurance are on therise. Traditional physical savings avenues real estate and Gold have given stagnating or falling returns asopposed to higher returns in equity and debt.
➢ Fixed income returns trended down since FY12, hence from Retirement planning perspective MF imperative.
➢ Top 10 funds contributed ~82% to Industry AUM in FY19, showing that scale is crucial for thriving in theindustry. While the industry has seen an increase in the number of mutual fund players, it has also undergoneconsolidation, especially the mid-sized and smaller AMCs.
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Mutual Fund Industry
MF industry has witnessed healthy growth with AUM of ~Rs. 25.6 trillion as of end-September 2019; implying~17% CAGR for nearly two decades. From a more recent starting point (FY11) also, overall MF AUM growth hasshown a strong performance with through-the-cycle overall MF AUM CAGR (FY11 - FY19) of 19%.
Mutual Fund Industry AUM GrowthMF AUM to total deposits of Scheduled Commercial Banks
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HDFC AMC
➢ Operates as an investment management firm. Offers portfolio management and advisory services to individuals,institutions, trusts, private funds, charitable organizations, and investment companies. HDFC Asset Managementserves customers in India.
➢ HDFC AMC is largest AMC with market share of 14% and AUM of Rs 3.43 lakh cr. Formidable size achieved due tobenefits Parentage/Trusted brand name, strong pan-India distribution network, operational efficiency, focus on thehigher-yield equity segment, and consistent fund performance over the past, led to healthy AUM growth at highlyprofitable levels.
➢ India’s under penetration of mutual funds relative to the world vs. competing areas of bank deposits/insuranceadditionally lends credence to longer-cycle growth from the “financialization” of savings. Company’s business modelchecks most of the investment criteria of a growing and high-ROE business, positive free cash flow and high dividendpayouts.
➢ HDFCAMC’s business is well positioned longer term, benefiting from its leadership position in the industry (andespecially equity) and its status as the most profitable AMC in the industry since 2011.
➢ The superior product mix helps company generate higher yield on AUM. The equity mix of AUM, at 47.7%, continuesto be higher than industry levels of 43.3%
➢ The AMC has been a net beneficiary of a ban on upfront commissions that has resulted in margins movingstructurally up. Further, it has been able to largely pass on all total expense ratio reductions to its distributors
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HDFC AMC
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1-HDFC ASSET MANAGEMENT COM - 13/12/19 F7
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1600 Double bottom breakout
1st Bottom
2nd Bottom
Moved 28%from lows
1760
Rs. Crores Mar-18 Mar-19 %
Sales 469 486 4%
Operating Profit 248 357 44%
Other Income 31 61 97%
Deprication 2 3 50%
PBT 277 415 50%
Net Profit 172 276 60%
Quarterly Result
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HDFC AMC
21 S 21 O 23 N 21 D 20 J19 18 F 15 M 18 A 16 M 20 J 18 J 16 30 A 29 S 30 O 31 N 29
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1-HDFC ASSET MANAGEMENT COM - 10/12/19 F7
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118% in 6 months
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AFFLE
➢ Affle India Ltd is an ad tech company that helps advertisers drive useracquisition, improve engagement and increase the frequency oftransactions through mobile advertising using its proprietary consumerplatform.
➢ The share of digital ads in media budgets across industries is increasing.Players with scalable end-to-end offerings across the ad-tech valuechain, such as Affle, should be a beneficiary of the internet wave anddigital expansion.
➢ Affle provides end-to-end automated mobile advertising consumer platform, coupled with a cost per converted user (CPCU) model, drives ROI and ensures high client retention and strong network effects.
➢ Filed 14 patents in Singapore and the USA to fortify AI-driven intelligence & automation for conversion-driven marketing with key focus on conversational, vernacular and voice based intelligence.
Profit & Loss
Rs cr FY18 FY19 %
Revenue 167.2 249.4 49%
EBITDA 45.5 70.3 55%
EBIT 37.2 60.2 62%
Profit 27.8 48.8 76%
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AFFLE
Key Investors in parent company
Shareholding Pattern
as of Sep 2019
as of Sep 2019
Public shareholding >1%
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AFFLE
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1-AFFLE (INDIA) LIMITED - 10/12/19 F7
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960
Stock has absorbedpost IPO selling andits hit new high
Moved 26%from thelows
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AFFLE
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1-AFFLE (INDIA) LIMITED - 10/12/19 F7
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81% in four months
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SRF Ltd
➢ A clampdown on chemical manufacturing, tightener pollution control norms and the threat of US tariffs inChina caused disruption
➢ Indian specialty chemicals were the beneficiary
➢ Turnaround in specialty chemicals
➢ Dominant position in the market with largest market share
➢ Market leadership position in Nylon Tyre Cord Fabrics
➢ The company doubled its Hydroflurocarbon capacity to 50,000MT with an investment of INR3,800m
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1-SRF Ltd. - 12/12/19 F7
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Double Bottom
SRF Ltd
High volumesDouble bottom
High volume
1st low
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1850
1800
1750
1700
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
30 L
25 L
20 L
15 L
10 L
5 L
3309.15
1-SRF Ltd. - 12/12/19 F7
Daily
QtyLine
2250
3323
48% in 9 months
SRF Ltd
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
“When do you want get diagnosed?”
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
D J17 F M A M J A S O N D J18 M A M J J A S N D J19 F M A M J A S O N
10800
10600
10400
10200
10 T
9800
9600
9400
9200
9 T
8800
8600
8400
8200
8 T
7800
7600
7400
7200
7 T
6800
6600
6400
6200
6 T
5800
5600
5400
5200
5 T
4800
4600
4400
4200
4 T
1 C
80 L
60 L
40 L
20 L
7090.00
1-Maruti Suzuki India Ltd - 13/12/19 F7
Weekly
QtyLine
Maruti Suzuki
10,000
Breakdown confirmation
Reversal signal 8600
8,250
Double Top
COLD
FEVER
cmp 7090
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Edelweiss Financial Services
23 J 26 J 30 A S 24 O 30 N D 21 J19 25 F 28 M A 25 M 31 J J 23 A 28 S O 24 N 28
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
140 L
120 L
1 C
80 L
60 L
40 L
20 L
114.50
1-Edelweiss Financial Servi - 13/12/19 F7
Daily
QtyLine
270
Breakdown
Consolidation
Resumption of downtrend
Volumes on declines
Support now acting as Resistance
206
COLDFEVER
ICU
cmp 115
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Technical Analysis = Brahmastra
Art of exiting :
Arjun vs Abhimanyu
In Smallcap/high beta/fancy names/ new flavours/topnewsmakers you have to be Arjun not Abhimanyu
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Who am I?
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Vakrangee
J 17 25 A 10 21 30 S 15 25 O 12 23 31 N 16 24 D 12 20 29 J18 16 24 F 12 21 M 12 20 28 A 17 25 M 14 22
520
500
480
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
6 C
5 C
4 C
3 C
2 C
1 C
34.00
2-VAKRANGEE LIMITED - 21/06/19 F7Net
Daily
QtyLine
In uptrend forming high forming higher tops and higher bottoms
364
False HopeFrom low recovery of 15%
High Volumes
Further confirmation
Now less than 10th value cmp 34
High 515
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
PC Jeweller
25 O 18 31 N 22 D 14 27 J18 18 31 F 23 M 20 A 13 25 M 18 30 J 21 J 13 25 A 17 30 S 25 O
620
600
580
560
540
520
500
480
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
22 C20 C
18 C16 C14 C
12 C10 C8 C
6 C4 C2 C
52.05
2-PC JEWELLER LIMITED - 21/06/19 F7Net
Daily
QtyLine
In uptrend forming high forming higher tops and higher bottoms
Close 364
Intraday From low recovery of 67%
Highest volumes for the stock
cmp 52
High 600
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Infibeam Avenues
16 26 A 13 23 M 10 18 28 J 13 21 29 J 17 25 A 10 21 30 S 18 27 O 16 25 N 13 21 30 D
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
14 C
12 C
10 C
8 C
6 C
4 C
2 C
45.15
2-INFIBEAM AVENUES LIMITED - 21/06/19 F7Net
Daily
QtyLine
Recovery from 140 to 225. But failed to move above the highs
First signal
cmp 45
High 242
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
“Avoid falling knives”
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Stockholm syndrome
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
“is when kidnapped falls in love with kidnapper. Holding to dicey stocks where promoter ethics is hazy is exactly the same thing. Averaging it when it crashes is one step ahead – actually marrying the kidnapper”
DHFL
M 21 J 14 27 J 23 A 17 31 S 28 O 26 N 22 D 19 J19 15 28 F 21 M 20 A 16 M 16 29 J
800
780
760
740
720
700
680
660
640
620
600
580
560
540
520
500
480
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
-20
12 C
10 C
8 C
6 C
4 C
2 C
73.20
580.44
680.27
1-DEWAN HOUSING FINANCE - 21/06/19 F7
Daily
QtyLine, Avg(QtyLine:S:10), DelQtyLine
580
60% recovery from low of 274 to 438 next day
Consolidation
Huge Volumes on declines
Breakdown from consolidation
680
False Hope
New low
New lowNew low
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Yes Bank
J 18 A 16 31 S 28 O 30 N 27 D 26 J18 23 F 22 M 23 A 24 M 23 J 20 J 18 A 16 31 S O 17 N 16 D 17 J19 15 29 F 26 M 28 A 30 M 29 J
450
440
430
420
410
400
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
25 C
20 C
15 C
10 C
5 C
109.60
285.05
382.97
1-YES BANK LIMITED - 21/06/19 F7
Daily
QtyLine, Avg(QtyLine:S:10), DelQtyLine
383
Gap down open at 285
Consolidation 285
Breakout
Again reversal from breakdown level
Breakout failure and Gap down opening at 343
COLD
FEVERICU
Gap down open at 213
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Unsung Heroes
Less Pattern Great Return
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Pfizer – Strong Parentage/Trusted Brand
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
D J01 F02 S A03 N J04 J05 A M06 O M07 D J08 F09 S A10 N J11 J12 A M13 O M14 D J15 F16 S A17 N J18 J19
4 T
3900
3800
3700
3600
3500
3400
3300
3200
3100
3 T
2900
2800
2700
2600
2500
2400
2300
2200
2100
2 T
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1 T
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
3264.55
2-Pfizer Ltd. - 21/06/19 F7Net
Monthly
Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms
Honeywell Automation - Strong Parentage/Trusted Brand
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
S F08 J D M09 O M10 A J11 J N A12 S F13 J D M14 O M15 A J16 J N A17 S F18 J D M19
29 T
28 T
27 T
26 T
25 T
24 T
23 T
22 T
21 T
20 T
19 T
18 T
17 T
16 T
15 T
14 T
13 T
12 T
11 T
10 T
9 T
8 T
7 T
6 T
5 T
4 T
3 T
2 T
1 T
24658.60
2-Honeywell Auto India Ltd. - 21/06/19 F7Net
Monthly
Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms
Gillette India – Strong Parentage/Trusted Brand
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
J J05 J J06 J J07 J J08 J J09 J J10 J J11 J J12 J J13 J J14 J J15 J J16 J J17 J J18 J J19
8200
8 T
7800
7600
7400
7200
7 T
6800
6600
6400
6200
6 T
5800
5600
5400
5200
5 T
4800
4600
4400
4200
4 T
3800
3600
3400
3200
3 T
2800
2600
2400
2200
2 T
1800
1600
1400
1200
1 T
800
600
400
200
7450.65
2-Gillette India Ltd. - 21/06/19 F7Net
Monthly
Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms
HDFC Bank
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
F05 A F06 A F07 A F08 A F09 A F10 A F11 A F12 A F13 A F14 A F15 A F16 A F17 A F18 A F19
2500
2400
2300
2200
2100
2 T
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1 T
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
2414.20
2-HDFC Bank Ltd. - 21/06/19 F7Net
Monthly
Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms
10 Years: 19.74% 10 Years: 25.12% 10 Years: 18.08%
5 Years: 19.20% 5 Years: 19.98% 5 Years: 17.72%
3 Years: 18.01% 3 Years: 19.68% 3 Years: 17.32%
TTM: 23.34% TTM: 20.54% Last Year: 16.50%
Compounded Revenue Growth Compounded Profit Growth Return on Equity
Bajaj Finance
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
J08 J N A09 S F10 J D M11 O M12 A J13 J N A14 S F15 J D M16 O M17 A J18 J N A19
3700
3600
3500
3400
3300
3200
3100
3 T
2900
2800
2700
2600
2500
2400
2300
2200
2100
2 T
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1 T
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-100
3565.85
2-BAJAJ FINANCE LIMITED - 21/06/19 F7Net
Monthly
Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms
10 Years: 39.22% 10 Years: 62.54% 10 Years: 20.12%
5 Years: 33.86% 5 Years: 34.95% 5 Years: 20.70%
3 Years: 35.08% 3 Years: 43.38% 3 Years: 20.89%
TTM: 37.56% TTM: 56.58% Last Year: 20.27%
Compounded Revenue Growth Compounded Profit Growth Return on Equity
Lower Price + Higher Attraction orHigher Price + Lower Attraction
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
RCOM, JP Associates, Suzlon, South Indian BankOrAarti Industries, 3M India, Godrej Properties
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Past Heroes, not necessarily current heroes….
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Reliance Infra
A01 N J02 J03 A M04 O M05 D J06 F07 S A08 N J09 J10 A M11 O M12 D J13 F14 S A15 N J16 J17 A M18 O M19
2700
2600
2500
2400
2300
2200
2100
2 T
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1 T
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
60 C
50 C
40 C
30 C
20 C
10 C
57.50
2-Reliance Infrastructu Ltd - 21/06/19 F7Net
Monthly
QtyLine
High 2641Jan, 2008
4x from low
Double from low
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Unitech
J O F04 J O F05 J O F06 J O F07 J O F08 J O F09 J O F10 J O F11 J O F12 J
560
540
520
500
480
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
-20
180 C
160 C
140 C
120 C
100 C
80 C
60 C
40 C
20 C
1.00
2-UNITECH LTD - 21/06/19 F7Net
Monthly
QtyLine
Cmp 1
High 547Jan, 2008
5x from low
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Dating vs Marriage
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
• HEG
• Escorts.. Testing
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Let’s Date…
• HEG
• Escorts.. Testing
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
800%
HEG 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sales 1,623 1,467 1,233 870 860
Operating Profit (Rs. Crore) 238 221 182 136 81
ROE % 12.3 9.4 4.1 -1.6 -5.7
PBDIT Margin % 18.9% 18.3% 16.7% 15.5% 10.2%
• HEG
• Escorts.. Testing
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Let’s Date…
More than 5 year consolidation
Breakout190
• HEG
• Escorts.. Testing
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
No more date… I’m serious!
315%
ESCORTS 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sales 3,894 6,292 3,986 3,367 4,094
Operating Profit (Rs. Crore) 182 385 41 147 272
ROE % 4.4 13.6 4.2 4.9 8.1
PBDIT Margin % 5.9% 7.4% 5.6% 6.3% 9.0%
• Page Industries
• Britannia
• KEC
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
You are the best!!
17000Breakout
High volume
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur
Thank You
Twitter Handle - @AshishChatur