technical working group on energy: subgroup on generation...
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Technical Working Group on Energy:
Subgroup on generation adequacy
ENTSO-E System Adequacy Methodology
22thJanuary 2015, Brussels
Daniel Huertas Hernando
System Planning Advisor. ENTSO-E
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Risks missing in the existing methodology
Changes in:
Energy mix (eg. RES integration)
Market structure (eg. IEM)
Consumption behaviour (eg. DSM)
For the future,
which additional risks will
need to be addressed?
AD
DR
ES
SE
D R
ISK
S
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Residual load: The impact of variability & need for flexibility
Residual load = load – RES
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Outcomes of the Consultation: Workshop and Web Survey
2nd Public Stakeholder Consultation Workshop | TF ADAM | 17 June 2014
Market not
rewarding
flexibility
Harmonisation of methodology
Cross-border exchanges
Data transparency Deterministic
Vs. probabilistic
Power plant
performance flexibility Back-up capacity
Out of market
Transparent definitions
Capability to deal
with intermittent gen.
Europe vs. local
Intermittency Grid development
Too narrow scenarios Assess generation
and demand equally
Variable RES
capacity credit
Duration of peak load
Extreme weather
Lowest load
Regulation capacity
National CRM
Plant economic drivers New grid vs.
New capacity
Insufficient ramping capability
Location problems
Low inertia
Residual load
Increased system interconnection
Demand response
Interdependence betw. countries
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• ENTSO-E Adequacy reports should be strengthened to capture more Security of Supply risks to the pan-European power system – including the increased need for flexibility - as it moves towards increased levels of RES-E.
• The treatment of electricity interconnection capacities at times of system stress must be included in future revision of ENTSO-E system adequacy methodology.
Recommendations
Electricity Coordination Group and future
ENTSO-E adequacy methodology
• Hourly resolution (instead of snapshot).
• Probabilistic method (w/ climate DB) to assess market prices and functioning, including during times of scarcity.
• More detailed view of cross-border contributions to a country’s system adequacy
• Informs about the 'need for flexibility'.
• Extensive range of indicators, e.g. LOLE/P, RES curtailments, capacity factor (as indicator for likelihood of units staying online).
• ENTSO-E methodology is fully in line with the methodology developed by TSOs in PLEF
• ENTSO-E adequacy studies will be integrated with appropriate market-based stochastic models* to assess adequacy
Target methodology for adequacy
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Short term Long term
6 months 1 year 5 years 10 years
Operational
decisions
Investment
decisions
Policy/political
decisions
Different risks should be addressed in different time horizons
Short and Long term adequacy methodologies
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Winter Outlook Report 2014/2015: Example
Inclusion of regional analysis (taking into account cross-border exchanges)
Using consistent scenarios for the renewables infeed (pan-European climate database)
New data templates were used to improve data collection and validation
7
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Winter Outlook Report 2014/2015:
Load reduction & Strategic reserves
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THANK YOU