Technology Assessment (TA)

– What is technology assessment?

– 2 models of what TA can be

– Criteria for good TA

– Types of TA

– Simulation – TA for digital phones with video cameras

– Discussion and critique

What is Technology Assessment?(The US version)

J. Coates (former head of Office of Technology Assessment)

Technology Assessment is:

“A class of policy studies which systematically examine the effects on society that may occur when a technology is introduced, or modified. It emphasizes those consequences that are unintended or delayed.”

History of TA in the US- The term TA started to be used in late 1960s, about a decade after

“policy analysis” became popular

- TA bill introduced in congress in 1970 - Need for improved technological advice for members of Congress - Criticism at the time (Larry E. Ruff):

"human societies are just too complex [to determine the] effects of technology…"

"to solve our environmental problems...you should work on providing what is lacking-the market...by making each polluter pay a fee”

- Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) formed in 1972- Fairly balanced and bipartisan- Little autonomy…topics and scope chosen by Congress- OTA came out against “Star Wars” … trouble with Reagan - Generally kept out of contentious issues after this- Dilemma: to be perceived as unbiased, avoid contentious issues.

Avoid contentious issues -> “invisible” and redundant with other research

- OTA closed in 1995 (funding withdrawn by Congress)

Examples of Technologies Assessed

All reports can be found on the OTA website:www.wws.princeton.edu/~ota

The OTA Process

What is Technology Assessment?(More broadly than the OTA)

• Guston and Bimber’s (2000) definition:– “The formalization of systematic, informed efforts of

technological choice, motivated by the hope of being able to choose the progressive over the problematic”

• Notice– No assumption of a policy focus

– Not necessarily expert-driven

Policy Analysis Model Public Deliberation Model

-Excels at identifying and evaluating alternatives and foreseeing futureproblems

-Excels at framing problems, settingagendas and identifying publiclyacceptable alternatives

Technology Assessment (Guston and Bimber

2000)

-Driven by legislators need for guidance on policy issues

-Driven by need for legitimacy derived from citizen participation

-Expert’s role is to provide answers

-Expert’s role is to inform citizens

-Frame of analysis influenced bylegislators and chosen by experts

-Frame of analysis can be broader

-Greater relevance to policy-making

-Greater autonomy

-Seeks to clarify the relationship between means and ends

-Seeks to identify positions and preferences about ends

Criteria for Good Technology Assessment (regardless of the model chosen)

• breadth of perspectiveo technical virtuosity AND public legitimacy

• focus on technologyo takes technology seriously,

o understands the unintended consequences of new technologies

o implications of technical change for organizations

o special characteristics of large technological systems

• no privilege for technology or technological inputso should not privilege a method approach or way of knowing

3 questions to be answered in a TA

• What technology is this technology like?• What boundaries does this technology cross?• What else do we need to know to govern this

technology?

– A hint of technological determinism?

More constructively?

• What familiar technologies do we WANT this technology to be like?

• What boundaries do we WANT this technology to cross and not cross?

– These questions based on the premise that as a society we can shape how technology is developed

Types of (expert oriented) TA

• Delphi Method• Systems Analysis• Surveys• Counter Planning• Formal Technology Assessment• Energy Accounting• Life Cycle Analysis• Risk Analysis• Cost Benefit Analysis• Environmental Assessment

TA as a Specific Approach (Source: J.F. Coates)

Simulation Exercise• The Technology:

– Small digital phone (processor) with internet, e-mail, and video capability – A light, unobtrusive headset has a video camera, video screen for return video – Camera can be rotated to capture, save and send images (still or full motion) – Micro storage devices available to store 1 terrabyte – Phone can video “conference” with up to 99 users – Cost: average over 20 years: $500-1000 for phone and $500 for storage

– Assess this technology imagining 20 years into the future when 40% of households have such devices.

• Questions:1a) What will be the primary effects of the technology on the users and others?b) What industries would be affected?

2) What would be the derivative effects? (i.e. structural changes in society)

3) Identify the “stakeholders” (affected parties)

4) What are the options for controlling this technology? Policy? Subsidies? Regulations?

5) What other “futures” might this technology promote?

Value of a Technology Assessment

• Outcomes that have resulted from TA (adapted from Coates)

– Modify project to reduce disbenefits and/or to increase benefits

– Identify institutional changes, regulatory and other control needs

– Define a surveillance program as the technology becomes operational

– Stimulate R&D to help better define risks, generate alternatives, etc

– Delay a project

– Identify partial or incremental implementation

– Prevent technology from developing (an unusual outcome) .

Limitations of Technology Assessment

• concentration on effects of single technologies may miss combined system effects

• technology assessments made at one point in time are useful, but not enough

• reliance on experts, who may not be so imaginative to predict possible future scenarios (including the future behaviour of society)

• objectivity may not accompany expertise

• experience shows that many uses of technology are unexpected

Built-in Characteristics

• (Tables A and B)• Apply this to the assessment of widespread

application of solar power to produce electricity in a developing country

Resources:

Coates, J. F. (19??). Notes on Technology Assessment. Notes from a larger report by JFCoates Inc. 3738 Kanawha Street N.W. Washington D.C. 20015.

Guston, David H. and Bruce Bimber (2000). Technology Assessment for the New Century. Working Paper # 7. Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University.

Kunkle, Gregory C. (1995). New Challenge or the Past Revisited: The Office of Technology Assessment in Historical Context. Technology and Society. 17(2): pp. 175-196. http://www.wws.princeton.edu/~ota/ns20/nchal_f.html

Vig, Norman and Herbert Paschen. (2000). Parlaiments and Technology: The development of Technology Assessment in Europe. Albany: State University of New York Press. (Thode Library T 174.5 .P36 2000 )

Westrum, R. (1991). Technology Assessment. In Technologies and Society: The Shaping of People and Things. Wordsworth.