technology dependent bc and oc emissions for danmark, greenland and the faroe islands calculated for...

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Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990e2030 Morten Winther * , Ole-Kenneth Nielsen Aarhus University, National Environmental Research Institute, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark article info Article history: Received 25 November 2010 Received in revised form 22 June 2011 Accepted 23 June 2011 Keywords: BC/OC emissions TSP Stationary sources Road transport Non road mobile machinery abstract This paper explains the rst emission inventory for BC and OC for Danish sources related to fuel combustion for the historical 1990e2008 period and the forecast years 2009e2030. The core basis for the BC/OC inventory is the Danish TSP emission inventories and projections. The relevant BC/OC emission factor information is based primarily on the European models GAINS and COPERT IV. Residential sources are the largest contributor to TSP, BC and OC emissions, representing in 2008 70%, 62 % and 83% of the total, followed by road transport exhaust and non exhaust, other mobile sources and other stationary sources. The total Danish emissions of TSP, BC and OC decrease by 14%, 28% and 12%, respectively, from 1990 to 2030. The emissions for Greenland and the Faroe Islands are less than 1% of the Danish total. For residential wood combustion a small number of detailed BC/OC measurements are available from the literature. These emission data are, however, disregarded in the Danish case, either due to lack of combustion unit representation, or data being related to wood type not accounted for in the Danish fuel data. To improve the inventory in this part, more emission measurements are needed especially for new stoves and boilers, which will become increasingly dominant in the future. For private stoves as such, it is desirable to develop a functional lter technology in order to bring down the particulate emissions in the future just as efciently as for road transport and larger non road mobile machinery types. The work presented in this paper may serve as an input for policy makers dealing with the envi- ronmental impacts from combustion related BC and OC emissions. Further the calculated results can be used for air dispersion modelling purposes following a spatial distribution of the detailed emission inventory data. Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction The part of particulate matter emitted as primary carbonaceous aerosols during fuel combustion are classied as black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) (e.g. Kupiainen and Klimont, 2007; Kopp and Mauzerall, 2010). Organic carbon (OC) is the part of the parti- cles that consists of different organic compounds. Black carbon (BC), commonly known as soot, is the black, light absorbing part of the particles and consist mostly of elemental carbon (e.g. Bond and Sun, 2005; Kupiainen and Klimont, 2007; Kopp and Mauzerall, 2010; Schmidt and Noack, 2000). It is well known that BC has global warming properties due to its ability to absorb light over reective surfaces e.g. snow covered surfaces and due to its darkening effect when deposited to snow and ice surfaces (e.g. Quinn et al., 2008; Flanner et al., 2011). In opposition, OC is suggested to have negative radiative forcing (RF) and thus have atmospheric cooling properties (e.g. Bond et al., 2004; Kopp and Mauzerall, 2010; Unger et al., 2010). Due to their relatively short residence times (weeks) in the atmosphere, BC and OC are considered as short lived climate forcers (SLCF). Given the climate properties of BC in particular, seen from a global warming perspective, the short term environmental benets of reducing these emissions are promising (e.g. Bond and Sun, 2005; Jacobson, 2010; UNEP, 2011). In recent years emission inventories have been set up at different geographical scales in order to estimate the level of BC and OC emissions. Global inventories are made by e.g. Penner et al. (1993), Cooke and Wilson (1996), Cooke et al. (1999), Lamarque et al. (2010) and Bond et al. (2004, 2007). The latter sources also made region by region breakdowns of the global BC and OC estimates, and specic European estimates are made by Kupiainen and Klimont (2007). Country results for the eight Arctic Nations; * Corresponding author. Tel.: þ45 4630 1297; fax: þ45 4630 1212. E-mail address: [email protected] (M. Winther). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Atmospheric Environment journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/atmosenv 1352-2310/$ e see front matter Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.06.066 Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011) 5880e5895

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Page 1: Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Danmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990–2030

lable at ScienceDirect

Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011) 5880e5895

Contents lists avai

Atmospheric Environment

journal homepage: www.elsevier .com/locate/atmosenv

Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Denmark, Greenlandand the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990e2030

Morten Winther*, Ole-Kenneth NielsenAarhus University, National Environmental Research Institute, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark

a r t i c l e i n f o

Article history:Received 25 November 2010Received in revised form22 June 2011Accepted 23 June 2011

Keywords:BC/OC emissionsTSPStationary sourcesRoad transportNon road mobile machinery

* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ45 4630 1297; fax:E-mail address: [email protected] (M. Winther).

1352-2310/$ e see front matter � 2011 Elsevier Ltd.doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.06.066

a b s t r a c t

This paper explains the first emission inventory for BC and OC for Danish sources related to fuelcombustion for the historical 1990e2008 period and the forecast years 2009e2030. The core basis forthe BC/OC inventory is the Danish TSP emission inventories and projections. The relevant BC/OC emissionfactor information is based primarily on the European models GAINS and COPERT IV. Residential sourcesare the largest contributor to TSP, BC and OC emissions, representing in 2008 70%, 62 % and 83% of thetotal, followed by road transport exhaust and non exhaust, other mobile sources and other stationarysources. The total Danish emissions of TSP, BC and OC decrease by 14%, 28% and 12%, respectively, from1990 to 2030. The emissions for Greenland and the Faroe Islands are less than 1% of the Danish total.

For residential wood combustion a small number of detailed BC/OC measurements are available fromthe literature. These emission data are, however, disregarded in the Danish case, either due to lack ofcombustion unit representation, or data being related to wood type not accounted for in the Danish fueldata. To improve the inventory in this part, more emission measurements are needed especially for newstoves and boilers, which will become increasingly dominant in the future.

For private stoves as such, it is desirable to develop a functional filter technology in order to bringdown the particulate emissions in the future just as efficiently as for road transport and larger non roadmobile machinery types.

The work presented in this paper may serve as an input for policy makers dealing with the envi-ronmental impacts from combustion related BC and OC emissions. Further the calculated results can beused for air dispersion modelling purposes following a spatial distribution of the detailed emissioninventory data.

� 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

The part of particulate matter emitted as primary carbonaceousaerosols during fuel combustion are classified as black carbon (BC)and organic carbon (OC) (e.g. Kupiainen and Klimont, 2007; Koppand Mauzerall, 2010). Organic carbon (OC) is the part of the parti-cles that consists of different organic compounds. Black carbon(BC), commonly known as soot, is the black, light absorbing part ofthe particles and consist mostly of elemental carbon (e.g. Bond andSun, 2005; Kupiainen and Klimont, 2007; Kopp and Mauzerall,2010; Schmidt and Noack, 2000).

It is well known that BC has global warming properties due toit’s ability to absorb light over reflective surfaces e.g. snow coveredsurfaces and due to it’s darkening effect when deposited to snow

þ45 4630 1212.

All rights reserved.

and ice surfaces (e.g. Quinn et al., 2008; Flanner et al., 2011). Inopposition, OC is suggested to have negative radiative forcing (RF)and thus have atmospheric cooling properties (e.g. Bond et al.,2004; Kopp and Mauzerall, 2010; Unger et al., 2010).

Due to their relatively short residence times (weeks) in theatmosphere, BC and OC are considered as short lived climate forcers(SLCF). Given the climate properties of BC in particular, seen froma global warming perspective, the short term environmentalbenefits of reducing these emissions are promising (e.g. Bond andSun, 2005; Jacobson, 2010; UNEP, 2011).

In recent years emission inventories have been set up atdifferent geographical scales in order to estimate the level of BCand OC emissions. Global inventories are made by e.g. Penner et al.(1993), Cooke and Wilson (1996), Cooke et al. (1999), Lamarqueet al. (2010) and Bond et al. (2004, 2007). The latter sourcesalso made region by region breakdowns of the global BC and OCestimates, and specific European estimates are made by Kupiainenand Klimont (2007). Country results for the eight Arctic Nations;

Page 2: Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Danmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990–2030

M. Winther, O.-K. Nielsen / Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011) 5880e5895 5881

Canada, USA, Russian Federation, Iceland, Denmark, Norway,Sweden and Finland was derived directly from the Bond et al.(2007) inventory base, as an input for Sarofim et al. (2009). Ona national level, special efforts have been made by Kupiainen et al.(2006) to estimate the Finnish national emissions of BC and OC forthe year 2000.

Also relevant for Denmark, more recent and important work hasbeen made by Cofala et al. (2007). The study obtained estimates ofBC and OC by applying a global version of the European basedRAINSmodel (Schoepp et al., 1999) and it’s current implementationGAINS (www.gains.iiasa.ac.at). Apart from producing global esti-mates of BC and OC, the model also produced more detailedcountry estimates for most European countries, among othersDenmark. Additionally in 2010, updated calculations for1990e2020 in five-year intervals have been made with the GAINSmodel as input for the black carbon expert group (BCEG; www.bceg.org) under the UNECE CLRTAP (Convention on Long RangeTransboundary Air Pollutants) convention.

Although the GAINS model uses a very detailed source split intosectors and emission technologies (Kupiainen and Klimont, 2004,2007), the emission estimates lack some precision for Denmarkas such. Themain reason is that GAINS do not use themost updateddata for fleet and activities for road transport and other mobilesources. This is also the case for fuel consumption for stationarycombustion, and an accurate split of these fuel figures into differenttechnologies. Such data are frequently updated by Danish sectorresearch institutes, public authorities and national key experts andmade available for the Danish emission inventories prepared byThe National Environmental Research Institute (NERI) at AarhusUniversity (Nielsen et al., 2010a).

This article explains the first Danish BC and OC emissioninventory for fuel combustion sources in Denmark, Greenland andthe Faroe Islands. The inventory is made by NERI and covers thetime period 1990e2030. The core basis for the BC/OC inventory isthe Danish TSP (Total Suspended Particulate matter) emissioninventories and projections (Nielsen et al., 2010a,b), which havebeen updated in this specific project and relevant BC/OC emissionfactor information based primarily on the European models GAINS(www.gains.iiasa.ac.at) and COPERT IV (EMEP/EEA, 2009).

For mobile sources and residential wood combustion, tech-nology dependent emission factor and activity data is made avail-able for detailed inventory calculations in the entire 1990e2030inventory period. This is also the case for other residentialcombustion and other stationary combustion from 2000 to 2030.For these two latter sources, apart from large point sources (powerplants, district heating plants and refineries), less detailed1990e1999 estimates are made using fuel related emission factorsfrom 2000 in combinationwith the annual fuel consumption. In thecase of large point sources the emissions for 2000 are repeated forthe years 1990e1999 due to lack of emission data.

Technology specific fuel consumption figures (activity data) andfuel related TSP emission factors that are derived from the Danishinventories will be presented for the inventory period, as well asBC/OC shares of the factors of TSP. Emission results for the1990e2030 time periods will be shown as totals as well as for mainsectors distributed into technologies, and an assessment of theinventory results will be made. Subsequently, important fields ofinventory improvement will be pointed out together with areas forwhich potential emission reductions can be obtained if properparticulate emission abatement technologies are developed.

This study has been funded by the Danish EnvironmentalProtection Agency as part of the environmental support programDANCEA e Danish Cooperation for Environment in the Arctic. Theinventory emission results serve as an input for the Task Force onShort Lived Climate Forcers under the Arctic Council.

2. Method

The Danish inventory system consists of a large number ofdifferent subsectors, and consequently, it is not possible to provideall inventory input data in this paper. For mobile sources inparticular, different sub-model calculation routines are performedin order to simulate the emission effect of e.g. cold start, enginewear and transient engine loads. In addition, the fleet developmentrepresented in the Danish inventory system differs within thespecific vehicle or machinery types, as regards the engine size/weight class composition, due to changes in new sales and vehicle/engine life times.

Hence, in order to limit the number of presented data in thispaper and to provide a consistent overview of the new BC/OCinventory, the activity data that are taken from the updated Danishinventories and forecast for TSP emissions are aggregated toa technology level, which generally corresponds with the variationsin BC/OC shares of TSP found in the literature.

2.1. Activity data

2.1.1. Stationary sourcesStationary sources consist of residential combustion and other

stationary sources. The residential combustion units comprisestoves, boilers and fireplaces, and other stationary sources aredivided into large point sources (power plants, district heatingplants and refineries) and small combustion sources in thecommercial/institutional, agriculture and manufacturing industrysectors.

The largest fuel consumption for stationary sources takes placein power plants and district heating plants. However, fuelconsumption for heat production in the residential and industrialsectors is also significant. The activity data are based on the Danishenergy statistics from the Danish Energy Agency (DEA, 2009) andfuel sales projection (DEA, 2010). Fig. 1 shows the main fuelconsumption data from 1990 to 2030 for residential sources, by farbeing the largest source of particulate emissions, and for all otherstationary sources combined.

The residential wood consumption is also shown in Fig. 1,stratified into combustion installation types from 1990 to 2030. Themost important reasons for the large increase in wood consump-tion from 2000 to 2008 are the increasing energy costs for otherfuel types thanwood, and the fact that it has become popular to buynew wood stoves due to a perceived cosiness. The projectionsassume that already by now a saturation point has been reached forthe total number of installations, and as a consequence the woodconsumption is not expected to increase in the future.

A new Danish legislationwas implemented in 2007 establishingemission limit values for wood burning installations in households(Ministry of the Environment, 2007). This legislation only applies tonew combustion installations, and the price for new stoves andboilers are comparable to the prices for older technologies.Consequently, the fuel consumption pattern for new combustionunits is expected to remain stable in the forecast period.

The penetration of new wood combustion technologies from2000 onwards, is based on information from a Danish study, whichincluded information on the annual sales of new stoves and boilersand their expected life times (Illerup et al., 2007). Less detailedinformation exist for the years 1990e1999 to stratify betweendifferent wood combustion technologies. For these years, data from2000, in terms of the number of wood burning installations (stovesand boilers), wood consumption per installation type and renewalrates are used to make the fuel split.

Fuels that contribute insignificantly to the total fuel consump-tion (and emissions) have been excluded from the graphical

Page 3: Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Danmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990–2030

Fuel consumption - residential plants

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Fig. 1. Fuel consumption data for Danish residential and other stationary sources.

1 For Greenland the expected opening of new hydro power plants in 2013 and2017 has been included in the projection (pers. comm. L. Simonsen, Ministry ofHousing, Infrastructure and Transport in Greenland, 2010).

M. Winther, O.-K. Nielsen / Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011) 5880e58955882

presentations but are included in the calculation of emissions.These fuel types include town gas, brown coal, coke, petroleumcoke, fuel oil, kerosene and LPG. The aggregation of the energystatistics and projections and the calculation procedure is describedin Nielsen et al. (2010b) and Nielsen et al. (2010c).

2.1.2. Road transportFor road transport the key input data for the Danish emission

inventories (Nielsen et al., 2010a) are national fleet and mileagefigures, fuel sales totals and fuel consumption and emission factorsprovided by the European emission calculation model COPERT IV(EMEP/EEA, 2009). The fleet and mileage data are prepared by DTUTransport (Department of Transport at the Technical University ofDenmark), see Jensen and Kveiborg (2010), whereas statistical fuelsale totals and fuel sale projections come from DEA (2009) and DEA(2010), respectively.

The Danish emission inventories for road transport are calcu-lated with an internal model developed by NERI (Winther, 2008a).The model calculates the fuel estimates for groups of vehicles withthe same average fuel consumption and emission behaviour, the so-called layers. The layer structure and calculation methodology ofthe NERI model is similar to the model structure of COPERT IV(EMEP/EEA, 2009). The layer splits are made according to fuel type,engine size/weight class and EU emission legislation levels. The fuelactivity data used in the present BC/OC emission inventory (Fig. 2)are derived from the Danish emission inventories and projections(Nielsen et al., 2010a,b).

2.1.3. Other mobile sourcesFor non road mobile machinery in agriculture, forestry, industry

and residential, as well as for ferries, other sea vessels and pleasurecraft in navigation, the key input data for the Danish emissioninventories are stock, operational data and technology specific fuel

consumption and emission factors. The sources for input data anddocumentation of the inventory calculation methods are describedby e.g. Winther and Nielsen (2006) and Winther (2008b).

Fig. 3 shows the fuel activity data used in the present BC/OCemission inventory for agricultural and industrial non roadmachinery, as an example. The layer specific fuel consumptionnumbers are derived from the Danish emission inventories sum-marised by engine standards.

For railways,fisheries andmilitaryactivities thekey inputdata forthe Danish emission inventories are historical fuel sales data andforecast fuel data from theDEA (2009, 2010). Fig. 4 shows the activitydata being used in thepresent BC/OC emission inventory for all othermobile source categories. The fuel activity data are classifiedaccording to the common reporting format (CRF) sectors used by theUnitedNations FrameworkConventiononClimateChange (UNFCCC)and a further split into fuel type corresponding to the availableemission factor information for BC/OC, as shown in Section 2.2.

2.1.4. Greenland and the Faroe IslandsFor Greenland and the Faroe Islands, the historical fuel

consumption is based on the reported figures to the UNFCCC madeby Statistics Greenland (2010) and Faroe Islands EnvironmentAgency (2010). No complete fuel consumption projections wereavailable for Greenland and the Faroe Islands. However, the fuelconsumption has not shown an increasing trend in later years andhence constant fuel consumption for 2009þ were assumed, usingthe average figure for the three latest historical years; 2006e20081.

Page 4: Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Danmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990–2030

Agricultural non road

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Fig. 3. Fuel consumption data for Danish agricultural and industrial non road machinery.

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Trucks

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Fig. 2. Fuel consumption data per vehicle type for Danish road transport.

M. Winther, O.-K. Nielsen / Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011) 5880e5895 5883

Page 5: Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Danmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990–2030

Diesel consumption - other mobile

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Industry (1A2f) Railways (1A3c) Navigation (1A3d)Ag./for. (1A4c) Military (1A5) Fisheries (1A4c)

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Fig. 4. Fuel consumption data for other mobile sources in Denmark.

M. Winther, O.-K. Nielsen / Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011) 5880e58955884

The fuel consumption in Greenland and the Faroe Islands is smallcompared to Denmark; in both cases the shares were 1.2% in 2008.

2.2. Emission factors

2.2.1. Residential sourcesThe major source of PM emission from stationary combustion

sources is residential wood combustion. For this inventory sector,the technology based TSP emission factors and the BC/OC shares ofTSP are shown in Table 1. The emission factors of TSP refer to theEMEP/EEA Guidebook (EMEP/EEA, 2009) and to Danish research(Illerup et al., 2007). BC/OC shares are taken from Kupiainen and

Table 1TSP emission factors and BC/OC shares for residential wood combustion.

Fuel type Technology Accumulationtank

TSPa BCb OCb

g GJ�1 % of TSP % of TSP

Wood Old stove (<1990) 850 15 45New stove (1990e2005) 850 15 45Modern stove (>2005) 640 15 45Eco stove 250 15 45Fireplaces 900 10 50Old boiler (<1980) Yes 1000 35 25

No 2000 30 45New boiler (>1980) Yes 150 35 25

No 300 30 45Pellet stove/boiler 35 35 25

Straw 234 35 25Residual oil 14 3 1Gas oil 5 32.4 8.1Coal 17 45 10

a TSP emission factors are based on both national and international literature. Forfull list of references see Nielsen et al. (2010c).

b Kupiainen and Klimont (2004).

Klimont (2004), the latter reference being regarded as the mostrepresentative collection of BC/OC shares for different woodcombustion technologies applicable to Danish conditions. Due tothe limited information generally available in the literature,constant shares of BC/OC have been used independently ofcombustion technology.

While many studies exist on particle emission factors fordifferent technologies, (e.g. Glasius et al., 2005; Johansson et al.,2004; Klippel and Nussbaumer, 2007; Mcdonald et al., 2000;Nussbaumer et al., 2008) very few studies have provided BC/OCshares for different technologies.

Kupiainen and Klimont (2004) present the most detailedcollection of technology dependent BC/OC shares. Few otherstudies have provided technological dependent emission factors forwood combustion. Most noticeably is Tissari et al. (2007), whoprovides technologically specific BC/OC emission factors. Thesefactors, however, are mostly related to Finnish technologies (saunastoves, masonry heaters, bake ovens) which have very limited or nouse in Denmark.

In addition, Kupiainen and Klimont (2007) provide an overviewof ranges of the BC/OC shares for stationary combustion sources.The presented data, however, are given for main sectors, and forresidential sources, a separation is only made between fireplacesand stoves. Other studies (Schmidl et al., 2008; Fine et al., 2001,2002, 2004) propose BC/OC shares for different wood types.However, this kind of detail is not compatible with the level of theDanish activity data using wood as a bulk source of fuel.

2.2.2. Other stationary sourcesThe emissions from other stationary sources are dominated by

the emissions arising from public electricity and heat productionand from biomass combustion in small boilers for individualheating. The large power plants only contribute with a small part of

Page 6: Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Danmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990–2030

Table 2TSP emission factors and BC/OC shares for other stationary sources.

Fuel Category Fuel type Sector Subsector TSPa BCb OCb

g GJ�1 % of TSP % of TSP

Biomass Wood Electricity and heat production (1A1a) Public power 10 4 6District heating 19 4 6

Industry (1A2) 19 4 6Commercial/Institutional (1A4a) 143 15 15Agriculture/Forestry (1A4c) 143 15 15

Biomass Straw Electricity and heat production (1A1a) Public power 2.3 4 6District heating 21 4 6

Agriculture/Forestry (1A4c) 234 15 15Liquid Residual oil Electricity and heat production (1A1a) Public power, boiler > 300 MW 3 4.3 1.9

Public power, boiler < 300 MW 9.5 4.3 1.9Public power, gas turbines 3 4.3 1.9District heating 3 4.3 1.9

Industry Boilers 9.5 4.3 1.9Other 14 4.3 1.9

Commercial/Institutional (1A4a) 14 4.3 1.9Agriculture/Forestry (1A4c) 14 4.3 1.9

Liquid Gas oil Residential 5 32.4 8.1Other 5 5 0.8

Solid Coal Electricity and heat production (1A1a) Public power 3 0.05 0.06Industry (1A2) 17 0.05 0.06Agriculture/Forestry (1A4c) 17 45 10

a TSP emission factors are based on both national and international literature. For full list of references see Nielsen et al. (2010c).b The BC/OC shares are based on Kupiainen and Klimont (2004). Some factors have been aggregated to fit the level of detail in the Danish Inventory/projection.

2 Cars/vans: EU Directive 715/2007; trucks/buses: EU Directive 595/2009.3 For jet fuel used in civil aviation and military and heavy fuel, TSP emission

factors are not shown. Jet fuel: 1.16 g GJ�1; for heavy fuel 1990e2006 (avg.):106 g GJ�1; 2007e2009: 51 g GJ�1; 2010e2014: 44 g GJ�1; 2015þ: 23 g GJ�1.

M. Winther, O.-K. Nielsen / Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011) 5880e5895 5885

the particulate emissions from other stationary sources and forthese plants emission data based on continuous measurements areused for the historic period. For the projection period, plant specificinformation has also been acquired from the major power plantoperators. There have been no major developments in particleabatement in large combustion plants since 2000, nor is anysignificant changes expected in the projected time-series (pers.comm. F. Sørensen, DONG Energy and M. Petersen, Vattenfall). Forlarge power plants where no specific information is available thegeneral TSP emission factors for public power generation shown inTable 2 have been used.

Table 2 shows the general emission factors of TSP and the BC/OCshares used. Only fuels with a significant contribution to the totalparticulate emissions are included. The full list is available fromNielsen et al. (2010c). Many of the TSP emission factors are countryspecific. However, some refer to international references such asThe TNO CEPMEIP emission factor database (CEPMEIP).

The majority of BC/OC shares refer to Kupiainen and Klimont(2004). For some fuels several technologies presented inKupiainen and Klimont (2004) have been aggregated as thebreakdown of technologies is not known in the Danish case.Further, for some other fuel types it was not possible to find BC/OCfractions in the literature. In these cases emissions have beencalculated using emission factors for the most comparable fuelbased on the expert judgement at NERI. For instance, the BC/OCfraction of LPG, refinery gas and biogas are assumed to be the sameas that of natural gas.

2.2.3. Road transportTable 3 shows the TSP emission factors in g GJ�1, and the BC/OC

percentage fractions of TSP for Danish road transport.The TSP emission factors are derived from the Danish emission

inventories, aggregated from road type, engine size (cars) andweight class (trucks and buses) in correspondence with the fuelactivity data presented in Section 2.1.

The BC/OC percentage shares of TSP are taken from COPERT IV(EMEP/EEA, 2009). BC shares are directly reported by this reference,whereas OC shares are calculated from the reported organic mass(OM) shares of TSP, using a OM:OC factor of 1.3 for all vehicle types

as reported by Jacobson (2002). The latter broad factor is used inthe absence of information directly representing specific vehicle-fuel type combinations.

For diesel cars and vans (Euro 5 and 6) and heavy duty trucksand buses (Euro VI) a prerequisite for meeting the very low EUdirective emission limits2 is the use of particulate filters. Forengines equipped with filters, the BC share of TSP becomessubstantially lower, due to the fact that the filter efficiency ishighest for the part of particles emitted as soot (e.g. Bosteeels et al.,2006a,b, and May et al., 2007, 2010).

It is well known that build-in particulate filters exist for somediesel cars already at Euro 3 level. Further, some Euro IIIeV trucksand buses have filters installed, either as retrofits as originalinstalments, in order to fulfil the emission limit requirements fromenvironmental zones, or to meet the environmental demands forpublic bus service operators required by the authorities. By nottaking into account this information the calculated emissions of TSPmay be overestimated to some extend, and in relative terms BCemissions become even more overestimated. However, such fleetspecific filter data are not available for the inventory at themoment.

For the non exhaust sources brake wear, tyre wear and roadabrasion, the TSP emission factors shown in Table 4 come from theDanish emission inventories, based on the emission informationfrom COPERT IV (EMEP/EEA, 2009). For BC/OC shares of TSP, datafromKupiainen and Klimont (2004) are used, based on the reporteddata from Hildemann et al. (1991), Garg et al. (2000), Chow et al.(1994) and Kupiainen et al. (2002).

2.2.4. Other mobile sourcesThe TSP emission factors shown in Fig. 5 are derived from the

Danish emission inventories3. For non road diesel engines prior toStage IIIB, BC/OC percentage shares of TSP are taken from COPERT

Page 7: Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Danmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990–2030

Table 3TSP emission factors and BC/OC shares for road transport.

Vehicle type Technologya TSP BC OC TSP BC OC BC OC

mg km�1 g GJ�1 % of TSP

Gasoline cars Pre ECE 49.90 1.00 37.42 14.22 0.28 10.67 2 7515 00e15 01 49.90 2.49 36.42 18.03 0.90 13.16 5 7315 02 49.90 2.49 36.42 18.27 0.91 13.34 5 7315 03 33.44 1.67 24.41 12.77 0.64 9.32 5 7315 04 23.42 4.68 14.52 9.34 1.87 5.79 20 62Euro 1 2.32 0.58 1.12 0.95 0.24 0.46 25 48Euro 2 2.32 0.58 1.12 0.96 0.24 0.46 25 48Euro 3e6 1.06 0.16 0.37 0.42 0.06 0.15 15 35

Diesel cars Conv. 222.42 122.33 66.73 99.74 54.86 29.92 55 30Euro 1 86.23 60.36 18.97 37.93 26.55 8.34 70 22Euro 2 57.89 46.31 8.10 24.52 19.62 3.43 80 14Euro 3 41.35 35.15 4.14 18.44 15.67 1.84 85 10Euro 4 34.99 30.44 3.15 15.82 13.76 1.42 87 9Euro 5e6 6.99 0.70 2.66 3.25 0.32 1.23 10 38

Gasoline vans Conv. 40.00 2.00 29.20 12.24 0.61 8.94 5 73Euro 1e2 2.32 0.58 1.11 0.61 0.15 0.29 25 48Euro 3e6 1.04 0.16 0.37 0.27 0.04 0.10 15 35

Diesel vans Conv. 385.88 212.23 115.76 119.69 65.83 35.91 55 30Euro 1 92.08 64.46 20.26 32.14 22.50 7.07 70 22Euro 2 92.08 73.67 12.89 32.14 25.71 4.50 80 14Euro 3 61.70 52.44 6.17 21.53 18.30 2.15 85 10Euro 4 32.23 28.04 2.90 11.25 9.79 1.01 87 9Euro 5e6 4.03 0.40 1.53 1.41 0.14 0.54 10 38

Diesel trucks Conv. 415.64 207.82 128.85 40.74 20.37 12.63 50 31Euro I 312.57 203.17 62.51 31.88 20.72 6.38 65 20Euro II 168.65 109.62 33.73 16.73 10.87 3.35 65 20Euro III 151.82 106.28 24.29 13.47 9.43 2.15 70 16Euro IV 26.98 20.24 3.78 2.51 1.88 0.35 75 14Euro V 27.34 20.50 3.83 2.51 1.88 0.35 75 14Euro VI 13.49 2.02 4.72 1.25 0.19 0.44 15 35

Diesel buses Conv. 488.65 244.32 151.48 44.79 22.40 13.89 50 31Euro I 333.06 216.49 66.61 33.65 21.87 6.73 65 20Euro II 157.73 102.52 31.55 16.07 10.45 3.21 65 20Euro III 153.43 107.40 24.55 14.51 10.15 2.32 70 16Euro IV 30.07 22.56 4.21 3.00 2.25 0.42 75 14Euro V 30.29 22.72 4.24 3.00 2.25 0.42 75 14Euro VI 15.14 2.27 5.30 1.50 0.22 0.52 15 35

Mopeds Conv. 188.00 18.80 129.72 171.69 17.17 118.47 10 69Euro 1 75.50 15.10 46.81 114.92 22.98 71.25 20 62Euro 2 37.60 7.52 23.31 71.06 14.21 44.06 20 62

Motorcycles Conv. 48.38 7.26 31.45 35.80 5.37 23.27 15 65Euro 1 20.00 5.00 11.60 13.79 3.45 8.00 25 58Euro 2 5.00 1.25 2.90 3.45 0.86 2.00 25 58Euro 3 5.00 1.25 2.40 3.45 0.86 1.65 25 48

a Euro 4(IV) and prior technologies: Data is from inventory year 2008; Euro 5e6(VeVI): Inventory year 2015 (cars, trucks, buses) and 2016 (vans).

Table 4TSP emission factors and BC/OC shares for non-exhaust road transport.

Vehicle type Wear type TSP BC OC BC OC

mg km�1 % of TSP

Cars Brake 7.52 0.20 0.80 2.61 10.7Tyre 12.40 1.90 4.46 15.3 36Roada 15 0 0 0 0

Vans Brake 13.60 0.36 1.46 2.61 10.7Tyre 20.40 3.12 7.35 15.3 36Roada 15 0 0 0 0

Trucks Brake 34.76 0.91 3.72 2.61 10.7Tyre 67.81 10.37 24.41 15.3 36Roada 76 0 0 0 0

Buses Brake 47.08 1.23 5.04 2.61 10.7Tyre 35.15 5.38 12.66 15.3 36Roada 76 0 0 0 0

Mopeds Brake 6.18 0.16 0.66 2.61 10.7Tyre 6.39 0.98 2.30 15.3 36Roada 6 0 0 0 0

Motorcycles Brake 4.20 0.11 0.45 2.61 10.7Tyre 5.54 0.85 1.99 15.3 36Roada 6 0 0 0 0

a For road wear the BC and OC emissions are set to 0 due to lack of data.

M. Winther, O.-K. Nielsen / Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011) 5880e58955886

IV relevant for conventional engines, see Table 5. For the filterequipped Stage IIIB and IV non road engines4, COPERT IV factors forthe Euro VI technology layers are used for BC/OC shares.

The TSP emission factors for railways (Table 6) are derived fromthe Danish emission inventories, based on experimental data andthe expected emission levels for the future stock of railways loco-motives (Delvig, 2010).

Basically the same diesel engine technologies are used byrailway locomotives and heavy duty trucks in road transport (Pers.comm. P. Delvig, Danish State Railways, 2010). Hence, supported byinformation from Danish State Railways in terms of the technologydevelopment for railways engines in Denmark and the currenttechnology implementation plan, the decision is to use the BC/OCpercentage shares of TSP for road transport conventional dieselengines in 1990, Euro IV engines in 2009 and Euro VI engines in2020 (Delvig, 2010). Based on these figures, interpolations of theBC/OC shares are made for the inventory years in between.

4 Non road diesel engines: EU directive EU/2004/26; agricultural tractors: EUdirective EU/2005/13.

Page 8: Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Danmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990–2030

TSP emission factor - other mobile diesel

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

g p

r G

J

Industry (1A2f) Railways (1A3c) Navigation (1A3d)Ag./for. (1A4c) Fisheries (1A4c) Military (1A5)

TSP emission factor - other mobile gasoline

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

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180

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

g p

r G

J

Industry (1A2f) Navigation (1A3d) Residential (1A4b)Ag./for. (1A4c) Military (1A5)

Fig. 5. TSP emission factors per fuel type for other mobile sources in Denmark.

Table 5TSP emission factors and BC/OC shares for agricultural and industrial non roadmachinery.

Sector Technologya TSP BC OC BC OC

g GJ�1 % of TSP

Agriculture <1981 214.66 107.33 66.54 50 311981e1990 147.84 73.92 45.83 50 311991-Stage I 55.87 27.93 17.32 50 31Stage I 28.19 14.10 8.74 50 31Stage II 20.83 10.42 6.46 50 31Stage IIIA 15.81 7.90 4.90 50 31Stage IIIB 2.27 0.34 0.79 15 35Stage IV 2.16 0.32 0.76 15 35

Industry <1981 259.36 129.68 80.40 50 311981e1990 201.96 100.98 62.61 50 311991-Stage I 147.64 73.82 45.77 50 31Stage I 38.80 19.40 12.03 50 31Stage II 35.07 17.54 10.87 50 31

M. Winther, O.-K. Nielsen / Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011) 5880e5895 5887

For the fuels used in aviation, BC/OC data from Kupiainen andKlimont (2004) are used in this study (Table 6). For sea vessels,a limited number of experiments are reported in the literature.Single engine BC/OC emission tests have been performed byPetzold et al. (2004) and Kasper et al. (2007), whereas a muchmore extensive measurement campaign was made by Lack et al.(2009), including applicable exhaust plume measurement datafrom 211 commercial vessels. The data obtained from the lattersource allow the calculation of BC[OC] average shares of 12%[34 %]for heavy fuel oil and 31%[28 %] for marine diesel, respectively, tobe used in this study5 (pers. comm. D. Lack, NOAA Earth SystemResearch Laboratory). For heavy fuel oil the derived BC share issignificantly lower than the BC figure proposed by Kupiainen andKlimont (2004).

2.2.5. Greenland and the Faroe IslandsFor Greenland and the Faroe Islands the emission factors from

the Danish inventory have been used sector by sector. Forstationary sources, when large differences in emission factorsbetween combustion technologies occur, it has been assumed thatcombustion takes place in small boilers (pers. comm. L. Simonsen,Ministry of Housing, Infrastructure and Transport in Greenland).

Stage IIIA 29.37 14.68 9.10 50 31Stage IIIB 2.32 0.35 0.81 15 35Stage IV 2.17 0.33 0.76 15 35

a Stage IIIA and prior technologies: Data is from inventory year 2008; Stage IIIBþ:Inventory year 2015.

Table 6BC/OC shares for civil aviation, railways, navigation, fisheries and residential.

Sector Fuel type BC OC

% of TSP

Civil aviation (1A3a) Jet fuel 15 50Railways (1A3c) Diesel 50 (1990) 31 (1990)

Diesel 75 (2009) 14 (2009)Diesel 15 (2020) 35 (2020)

Navigation (1A3d) Residual oil 12 34Diesel 31 28Kerosene 15 50LPG 15 50Gasoline 5 73

Fisheries (1A4c) Diesel 31 28Kerosene 15 50

2.3. Calculation method

For each emission source the stratified emissions are calculated as:

Ei; j;k; f ;y ¼ FCj;k; f ;yEFi; j;k; f ;y (1)

E¼ emissions in tonnes, FC¼ fuel consumption in PJ, EF¼ emissionfactor in g GJ�1, i ¼ emission component, j ¼ mobile category/stationary sector, k ¼ technology, f ¼ fuel type, y ¼ inventory year.

The calculation procedure for road transport non exhaustemissions uses the km based emission factors for brake, tyre androad wear shown in Table 4, and total mileage figures derived fromthe Danish emission inventories (not shown in section 2.1).

Ei; j;k;y ¼ Mj;yEFi; j;k;y (2)

E ¼ emissions in tonnes,M ¼ total mileage (109 km), EF ¼ emissionfactor in mg km�1, i ¼ emission component, j ¼ vehicle type,k ¼ wear type, y ¼ inventory year.

5 Reported OM results are transformed into OC by using the OM:OC ratio of 1.3from Jacobsson (2002). It is assumed that slow speed engines use heavy fuel oil, andmedium/high speed engines use marine diesel.

3. Emission results

Residential sector is the most important source of emissions ofTSP, BC and OC in 2008, representing 70%, 62% and 83%, respectively(Table 7). Further sources, in order of importance, are road

LPG 15 50Residential (1A4b)a Gasoline 5 73

a Shares of BC and OC are taken from COPERT IV (EMEP/EEA, 2009) conventionalgasoline engines. The same data is used for gasoline equipment in agriculture,forestry and industry.

Page 9: Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Danmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990–2030

Table 71990e2030 emissions of TSP, BC and OC for Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands.

TSP (tons) BC (tons) OC (tons)

CRF code Sector 1990 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2030 1990 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2030 1990 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2030

1A1a Public power 853 961 656 643 740 788 796 10 11 7 10 15 17 21 29 32 22 17 31 45 511A1a District heating plants 162 184 213 258 310 290 287 6 7 8 11 13 12 12 9 11 13 16 19 18 181A1b Petroleum refining plants 144 111 119 119 119 119 119 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 60 58 56 56 56 56 561A1c Coal mining/oil/gas

extraction/pipeline3 3 3 3 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 3 3

1A2 Combustion inmanufacturing industry

522 343 307 405 416 402 459 15 7 7 12 12 11 13 12 8 9 11 11 10 11

1A2f IndustryeOther (mobile) 1577 1002 861 735 552 367 297 785 498 427 364 269 173 136 492 314 270 231 175 118 971A3a Civil Aviation 4 2 3 3 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 21A3b Road 4991 2269 1931 1588 1019 606 368 2220 1482 1372 1167 690 303 59 1900 511 360 274 199 164 1451A3b Road non-exhaust 1820 2520 2693 2584 2720 2738 3000 110 156 166 159 167 168 185 278 392 418 401 421 424 4651A3c Railways 202 124 101 79 40 1 1 101 86 75 55 17 0 0 62 22 15 13 10 0 01A3d Navigation 781 309 244 227 195 189 185 121 79 70 68 63 61 59 278 107 78 69 54 53 511A4a Commercial and

institutional plants (t)121 156 176 189 171 163 159 9 22 25 25 22 21 20 7 22 26 26 23 22 21

1A4b Residential plants 10,069 17,145 21,150 19,823 14,587 11,393 8642 2434 3725 4492 4115 2828 2201 1755 3841 6955 8671 8089 6004 4634 33961A4b Residential (mobile) 35 78 81 81 82 82 82 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 26 57 59 59 60 60 601A4c Plants in agriculture/

forestry/aquaculture952 517 508 530 571 643 851 144 85 84 88 95 105 137 127 76 75 79 86 100 129

1A4c Ag./for./fish. (mobile) 2628 1146 990 890 591 388 287 1261 538 462 412 256 148 87 826 357 310 279 187 124 931A5 Military (mobile) 12 33 12 10 6 4 2 5 21 8 7 4 2 0 4 7 2 2 1 1 1Total Residential plants 10,069 17,145 21,150 19,823 14,587 11,393 8642 2434 3725 4492 4115 2828 2201 1755 3841 6955 8671 8089 6004 4634 3396

Other stationary 2756 2275 1981 2147 2331 2408 2675 193 139 139 153 164 174 210 245 210 203 207 228 254 288Road (exhaust) 4991 2269 1931 1588 1019 606 368 2220 1482 1372 1167 690 303 59 1900 511 360 274 199 164 145Road (non-exhaust) 1820 2520 2693 2584 2720 2738 3000 110 156 166 159 167 168 185 278 392 418 401 421 424 465Other mobile 5239 2694 2290 2025 1470 1033 857 2276 1227 1047 910 614 388 288 1690 865 736 654 489 358 304

Total Denmark, Total 24,875 26,903 30,044 28,167 22,126 18,179 15,541 7233 6728 7216 6504 4464 3234 2496 7954 8933 10,388 9625 7341 5833 4597Civil Aviation, international 28 41 43 38 43 49 48 4 6 6 6 6 7 7 14 21 21 19 22 25 24Navigation, international 5677 6155 2025 1490 904 904 904 2209 2394 784 575 347 347 347 1476 1600 526 387 235 235 235Greenland 105 96 90 86 80 78 77 34 26 23 23 21 20 19 25 24 20 18 16 16 16Faroe Islands 157 125 112 114 106 103 101 42 41 34 35 31 28 27 44 29 26 26 24 24 24

Total Greenland/Faroe Islands 262 221 203 200 186 181 178 76 67 57 58 52 48 46 69 53 46 44 40 40 40

M.W

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.Nielsen

/Atm

osphericEnvironm

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(2011)5880

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Page 10: Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Danmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990–2030

TSP emissions

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

To

ns

Residential plants Other stationary Road (exhaust)Road (non exhaust) Other mobile

BC emissions

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

To

ns

Residential plants Other stationary Road (exhaust)Road (non exhaust) Other mobile

OC emissions

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

To

ns

Residential plants Other stationary Road (exhaust)Road (non exhaust) Other mobile

Fig. 6. TSP, BC and OC emissions from Danish sources from 1990 to 2030.

M. Winther, O.-K. Nielsen / Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011) 5880e5895 5889

transport exhaust (6%, 19%, 3%), road transport non exhaust (9%, 2%,4%), other mobile sources (8%,15%, 7%) and other stationary sources(7, %, 2%, 2%).

The calculated total emissions of TSP, BC and OC from Danishsources decrease by 14%, 28% and 12%, respectively, from 1990 to2030 (Table 7, Fig. 6). It must be noted that less detailed 1990e1999estimates are made for the smaller emission sources other resi-dential combustion, and other stationary combustion apart fromlarge point sources (power plants, district heating plants andrefineries). Fuel related emission factors from 2000 are used incombination with the annual fuel consumption. For large pointsources the emissions for 2000 are repeated for the years1990e1999 due to lack of emission data. An assessment of this

BC-% of Danish TSP emissions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Residential

plants

Other

stationary

Road

(exhaust)

Road (non

exhaust)

Other

mobile

Total

199020082030

Fig. 7. BC and OC percentage shares of Danish

inventory inaccuracy is made in Section 4 of this paper. In general,the emission trends for the different subsectors are explained bythe development in activity data, the technology dependent TSPemission factors and the corresponding BC/OC shares of thesefactors.

3.1. Residential sources

For residential sources, the TSP, BC and OC emissions decreaseby 16%, 28% and 12%, respectively, from 1990 to 2030 (Table 7,Fig. 6). The TSP emission factors for wood combustion aresubstantially lowered for private stoves in historical years (Table 1),due to the gradual technology improvement for private stoves in

OC-% of Danish TSP emissions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Residential

plants

Other

stationary

Road

(exhaust)

Road (non

exhaust)

Other

mobile

Total

199020082030

TSP emissions in 1990, 2008 and 2030.

Page 11: Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Danmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990–2030

TSP emissions - Diesel cars

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

To

ns

Conv. Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6

TSP emissions - Trucks

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

To

ns

Conv. Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V Euro VI

BC emissions - Diesel cars

0

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400

500

600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

To

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Conv. Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro VI

BC emissions - Trucks

0

100

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700

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

To

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Conv. Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V Euro VI

OC emissions - Diesel cars

0

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200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

To

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Conv. Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro VI

OC emissions - Trucks

0

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350

400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

To

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Conv. Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V Euro VI

Fig. 8. TSP, BC and OC emissions from Danish diesel cars and trucks from 1990 to 2030.

M. Winther, O.-K. Nielsen / Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011) 5880e58955890

historical years, and the impact on emission rates for new andfuture combustion installations from the Danish emission regula-tions (Ministry of Environment, 2007). Hence, the emission peakbuilding up from 2000 to 2008 (Fig. 10) is due to the significantincrease in wood combustion in private stoves during these years(Fig. 1), as explained in section 2.1.1. From 2008 to 2030, the TSP, BCand OC emissions decrease by 59%, 61% and 61%, respectively.

From 2008 to 2030 the TSP, BC and OC emissions drop by 59%,61% and 61%, respectively, for this sector (Fig. 10). This expectedemission development is caused by an almost constant level ofwood consumption predicted by DEA (2010) and the penetration ofnew and more emission efficient wood combustion technologies in

Denmark assumed by Illerup et al. (2007; and Fig. 1), also explainedin section 2.1.1.

3.2. Road transport and other mobile sources

For road transport and other mobile sources, the emissions ofTSP[BC, OC] decrease by 93%[97 %, 92 %] and 84%[87 %, 82 %],respectively from 1990 to 2030 (Table 7). The main reason for theselarge emission reductions is the more and more widespread use ofparticulate filters throughout the forecast period for road transportdiesel vehicles and non road diesel machinery in agriculture andindustry (Tables 3 and 5), which more efficiently reduces the BC

Page 12: Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Danmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990–2030

TSP emissions - Agricultural non road

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

To

ns

<1981 1981-1990 1991-Stage I Stage IStage II Stage IIIA Stage IIIB Stage IV

TSP emissions - Industrial non road

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

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2022

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2026

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<1981 1981-1990 1991-Stage I Stage IStage II Stage IIIA Stage IIIB Stage IV

BC emissions - Agricultural non road

0

100

200

300

400

500

2008

2010

2012

2014

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2018

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2022

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2026

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To

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<1981 1981-1990 1991-Stage I Stage IStage II Stage IIIA Stage IIIB Stage IV

BC emissions - Industrial non road

0

100

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400

500

2008

2010

2012

2014

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2018

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<1981 1981-1990 1991-Stage I Stage IStage II Stage IIIA Stage IIIB Stage IV

OC emissions - Agricultural non road

0

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300

2008

2010

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<1981 1981-1990 1991-Stage I Stage IStage II Stage IIIA Stage IIIB Stage IV

OC emissions - Industrial non road

0

50

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2008

2010

2012

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<1981 1981-1990 1991-Stage I Stage IStage II Stage IIIA Stage IIIB Stage IV

Fig. 9. TSP, BC and OC emissions from Danish agricultural and industrial non road machinery from 1990 to 2030.

M. Winther, O.-K. Nielsen / Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011) 5880e5895 5891

part of the particles emitted. The use of particulate filters isnecessitated by the implementation of the strict EU emission limitsfor cars and vans (EU/715/2007), trucks and buses (EU/595/2009),non road diesel engines and locomotives (EU/2004/26) and agri-cultural tractors (EU/2005/13).

Conversely, the total fuel consumption for these enginesincreases from 1990 to 2030 (Figs. 2 and 3), being most significantfor diesel cars due to the dieselification of the Danish vehicle fleet.The switch from gasoline to diesel vehicles has taken place for morethan a decade until now and is envisaged to continue in the future(Fig. 2).

3.3. Other stationary sources and road transport (non exhaust)

For other stationary sources and the road transport non exhaustsector, the emission changes of TSP[BC, OC] are �3%[9%, 17%] and65%[68 %, 67 %], respectively, from 1990 to 2030 (Table 7). Theemission factors for these two categories are relatively constant.The reason for the non exhaust emissions increase is the increase intotal mileage driven by road transport vehicles during the inven-tory period. For other stationary sources the small decrease in TSPemission is a result of counteracting tendencies: better particleabatement mainly for large power plants, decrease in coal use and

Page 13: Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Danmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990–2030

TSP emissions - residential wood combustion

0

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

To

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Old stove (<1990) New stove (1990-2005)

Modern stove (>2005) Eco stove

Fireplaces Old boiler w. acc. tank (<1980)

Old boiler w/o. acc. tank (<1980) New boiler w. acc. tank (>1980)

New boiler w/o. acc. tank (>1980) Pellet stove/boiler

BC emissions - residential wood combustion

0

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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Old stove (<1990) New stove (1990-2005)

Modern stove (>2005) Eco stove

Fireplaces Old boiler w. acc. tank (<1980)

Old boiler w/o. acc. tank (<1980) New boiler w. acc. tank (>1980)

New boiler w/o. acc. tank (>1980) Pellet stove/boiler

OC emissions - residential wood combustion

0

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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Old stove (<1990) New stove (1990-2005)

Modern stove (>2005) Eco stove

Fireplaces Old boiler w. acc. tank (<1980)

Old boiler w/o. acc. tank (<1980) New boiler w. acc. tank (>1980)

New boiler w/o. acc. tank (>1980) Pellet stove/boiler

Fig. 10. TSP, BC and OC emissions from Danish residential sources from 2000 to 2030.

6 Engine sizes between 19 and 37 kW are not comprised by the EU emissiondirective 2004/26, later than Stage IIIA. No emission limits exist for engines smallerthan 19 kW. 1.

M. Winther, O.-K. Nielsen / Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011) 5880e58955892

increasing use of biomass. The increase in BC and OC is mainlycaused by the increase in biomass consumption for which the BCand OC shares are higher than in the substituted fuels.

3.4. Greenland and the Faroe Islands

The emissions for Greenland and the Faroe Islands are lessthan 1% of the Danish emissions (Table 7). The emission factorsare derived from the Danish inventories, roughly assuming thesame technologies being used for each sector and fuel typecombination.

3.5. Development of BC/OC shares

The BC share of the Danish TSP total is expected to change from32% in 1990 to 16% in 2030 (Fig. 7). As previously mentioned, thisreduction of the BC share is due to the use of diesel particulatefilters for future technologies of road transport vehicles and nonroad mobile machinery. This is emphasised for road transport, forwhich the BC share of TSP increase from 44% in 1990 to an almostmaximum of 71% in today’s situation (2008), and thereafterdecrease to a 16% level in 2030 (Fig. 7).

The development towards lower BC shares for diesel cars andtrucks, being the largest sources of road transport exhaust TSPemissions is shown in more detail in Fig. 8. The share for diesel cars[trucks] falls from 82%[67%] in 2008 to 14%[18%] in 2030. By thetime all mileage is driven by diesel vehicles equipped with filters,the BC shares of TSP are expected to be 10% for cars and vans and15% for trucks and buses, as shown in Table 1.

For othermobile sources the BC share of TSP reduces from47% in1990 to 36% in 2030 (Fig. 7). Themajor emitters are agricultural andindustrial non road machinery. However, the BC emissionimprovement relative to TSP is predominantly driven by theemission development for agricultural machinery, for which thefilter equipped engine technologies Stage IIIB and IV graduallyenter the machinery stock (Fig. 9). For industrial machinery alone,the BC share of TSP only changes from 50% in 2008 to 47% in 2030due tomore soft emission limits agreed by the EU. Particulate filtersare not expected to be used at any stage for engine sizes below37 kW6. For <19 kW and 19e37 kW engines, respectively, emissiondata for the 1991-Stage I/Stage IIIA technologies are consideredrepresentative for engines sold later than 1990/Stage IIIA imple-mentation dates. This layer distribution is also visible from the fuelconsumption pattern shown in Fig. 2.

For residential sources using wood for combustion, a strongtechnological development is expected in the future due toincreased legislative demands (Ministry of Environment, 2007).The penetration of new and more efficient technologies in theforecast period causes a significant decrease in the particles emis-sions (Fig. 10) despite the fact that the projected consumption ofwood is almost constant (Fig. 1). The information in literature onthe shares of BC/OC of total TSP is very sparse (see section 2.2.1) andconsequently these shares are assumed to be independent ofcombustion technology.

Page 14: Technology dependent BC and OC emissions for Danmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands calculated for the time period 1990–2030

Table 8Results for 2005 from this study (NERI) and Danish results from GAINS.

Pollutant Source NERI (ktonnes) GAINS (ktonnes)

BC Road 1.64 1.67Other mobile 1.23 1.44Non ind. comb. 3.86 2.59Total 6.73 5.7

OC Road 0.90 0.97Other mobile 0.87 1.19Non ind. comb. 7.17 9.58Total 8.93 11.74

M. Winther, O.-K. Nielsen / Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011) 5880e5895 5893

The impact of the penetration of new technologies on emissionsof TSP, black carbon and organic carbon is shown in Fig. 10.

The OC share of the Danish TSP total is expected to moderatelychange from 32% in 1990 to 30% in 2030 (Fig. 7). Most remarkably isthe reduction of the OC share from 1990 to 2008 for road transport,due to the gradually smaller OC shares for diesel cars and vans untilEuro 5 and for trucks and buses until Euro VI.

3.6. Comparison with other studies

There is a fine harmony between the BC results (6.79 k tonnes)calculated by Bond et al. (2004) and the results from the currentDanish inventory (6.73 k tonnes). The relatively small BC emissionsestimated by GAINS (Table 8) is predominantly due to a smallerconsumption of wood in residential compared to actual Danishconditions and smaller TSP emission factors for boilers used byGAINS. Relevant for OC, the distribution of the consumption ofwoodby GAINS is inaccurate for Danish conditions. In this way the fuelconsumption is too low for boilers with accumulation tank (thathave a lowOC share), and further in GAINS the Danish consumptionofwood pellets is included under fuel consumption forwood stoves,the latter technology having relatively high OC shares.

4. Summary and conclusion

This paper explains the first emission inventory for TSP, BC andOC for Danish sources related to fuel combustion for the historical1990e2008 period and the forecast years 2009e2030. The corebasis for the BC/OC inventory is the Danish TSP emission invento-ries and projections, which have been updated in this specificproject, and relevant BC and OC emission factor information basedprimarily on the European models GAINS and COPERT IV. Resi-dential combustion units are the most important source of emis-sions, whereas minor emission shares are calculated for theinventory categories road transport exhaust, road transport nonexhaust, other mobile sources and other stationary sources.

For the dominant source residential wood combustion a smallnumber of detailed BC/OC measurements are available from theliterature. These emission data are, however, not appropriate asinput data for the Danish inventory, either because the combustioninstallation units are not present in Denmark, or because thepublished emission data are related to wood type which is notaccounted for in the Danish fuel data. To improve the inventory inthis part, more emission measurements are needed especially fornew stoves and boilers, which will become more and more domi-nant as old technologies are gradually being phased out.

Less detailed 1990e1999 estimates are made for the smalleremission sources other residential combustion, and otherstationary combustion apart from large point sources (powerplants, district heating plants and refineries). Fuel related emissionfactors from 2000 are used in combination with the annual fuelconsumption. By doing so, the inaccuracy introduced into theinventory calculations is regarded as small since no particle

removal technologies have been implemented for combustioninstallations in these sectors during the 1990s.

For large point sources the emissions for 2000 are repeated forthe years 1990e1999 due to lack of emission data reflecting plantspecific particle abatement systems. It must be kept in mind thatlarge point sources only account for a small part of the totalemissions, and hence in absolute terms the total emission uncer-tainties become small. However, more certain emission estimatesfor large point sources can be produced if plant specific emissionand activity data are provided in a new study.

Particulate filters most efficiently reduce the part of exhaustparticulate matter emitted as BC and the emission impact of filters isincorporated in the inventory calculations. Hence, due to the well-known short term climate effects of BC, substantial short term envi-ronmental benefits are expected in relation to global warming miti-gation by the step wise introduction of diesel particulate filters forroad transport vehicles aswell as non road agricultural and industrialmachinery. On a local scale the use of particulate filters is also a veryuseful means to obtain air quality improvements and to reduce theharmful impacts on human health from fuel combustion activities.

For non road machinery, the expected BC emission reductionsare considerably smaller for industrial machinery compared toagricultural machines due to the substantial number of industrialmachinery types below 37 kW, which does not require filtersinstalled in order to meet the future EU emission standards. Forsmall engines, the use of filters is associated with technical diffi-culties. The filter removal efficiencies are poor at the low exhausttemperatures at typical engine loads, and further, during dailyusage these engines typically have a very distinct start/stop engineoperational pattern. In addition, the filter prices are high comparedto the total cost for small machines as such.

As a consequence, the implementation of strict particulateemission limits by the EU for engine sizes below 37 kW also is notfeasible in today’s situation. However, potential emission reduc-tions can be obtained for this engine size segment if the filtertechnology tailored for small engines is being developed furtherand filters are offered at reasonably low prices, alongside withadequate emission limits being agreed by the EU.

For private stoves as such, it is desirable to develop a functionalfilter technology in order to bring down the particulate emissionsin the future just as efficiently as for road transport and larger nonroad mobile machinery types.

The work presented in this paper may serve as an input forpolicy makers dealing with the environmental impacts beingassociated with the emissions of BC and OC from combustionsources. Further the calculated results can be used for air dispersionmodelling purposes following a GIS distribution of the detailedemission inventory data.

Acknowledgements

This study has been funded by the Danish EnvironmentalProtection Agency as part of the environmental support programDANCEA e Danish Cooperation for Environment in the Arctic. Alsomany thanks should be given to Kaarle Kupianen, IIASA, forproviding emission data.

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