Technology  Driven  Innovation  &  Change  A d a p t i n g t o c h a n g e ; m a k i n g i t h a p p e n ; i n t e g r a t i n g i t i n t o t h e c u l t u r e

Peter Cochrane

cochrane.org.uk

In a simpledisconnected

world... ...we canaddress

problemsin isolation

...and simple solutions

mostly work

In a complexconnected

world...

...we haveto considerthe whole

...simple solutions

never work

AI

...modelling,simulation,decisionsupport

...BIGDATA

...everything online, andnetworked

...a livingorganism...

SIMPLE SYSTEMS

Within human grasp and abilities

Laws of physics apply

Mathematics work

Designed top down Always predictable Easy to specify Easy to design Easy to model Easy to realise Easy to control Easy to operate Do not evolve Do not adapt Unchanging Stable

Complicated SYSTEMS

Within human grasp

Laws of physics apply

Mathematics ‘mostly’ work

Difficult to understand Designed top down Difficult to specify Difficult to design Hard to model Hard to realise Hard to control Hard to operate Mostly predictable Do not evolve Generally adapt Capable of changing Stable

No top down design Impossible to specify Impossible to design Difficult to model Easy/Hard to realise E a s y / H a r d t o control Easy/Hard to operate Unpredictable Evolving/Adapting Always Changing Unstable/Stable Emergent behaviours

Complex SYSTEMS

Beyond human grasp and abilities

Established wisdoms do not apply

Mathematics no longer works

No general laws

stasis will not work

INNOVATION Is never easy

Creating a successful product, or invoking positive change, takes dedication, energy, tenacity, clear sightedness, leadership, a good team and connections + perfect timing and luck…

Improving an existing product, service, process, method, facility

Creating a new product,

service, process, method, facility

INNOVATION MODES Not to be mutually exclusive

Sometimes we get a continuing loop of improvement and new products

INNOVATION PROCESS

Product Trials

Commercial Roll Out

Social Commercial

Consequences

R&DProblems

& Needs

Process Practices Change

The Text Book Trajectory

INNOVATION ILLUSION

Progress Towards Market

Expended Positive Energy

Milestones

Actuality it is all Far More Chaotic

RISK looms Large

Markets Partners Investors Shareholders Vested Interests

Doing nothing feels safer

Individual reputation & reward at risk

Safety in what you know and understand

Incremental steps outgun giant leaps

Learning new things and making decisions is hard

Luck !!

OLD MIND SETS & STASIS Big organisations don’t like & resist change !

Doing nothing feels safer

Quickly supported bY A n e v e n d u m b e r e x c u s e !

There is no proven

Market

Doing nothing feels safer

the dumbest excuse Fo r d o i n g n o t h i n g a t a l l e v e r !

There is no proven

Business Plan

Doing nothing feels safer

there was never A proven market for anything !

Bicycle Electricity Telegraph Telephone Phonograph Automobile W i r e l e s s Television Computers Washing Machine Tumbler Dryer

Dish Washer BroadBand Computers

Mobiles Laptops Clouds Tablets Games

Apps AI

An obvious need perhaps!!

Changing an old Company A biological & economic organism that protects itself

Changing an old Company Constraints and little freedom but lots of resources

Changing an old Company Established fiefdoms are hard/impossible to eradicate

R&DDesign

Production

Delivery

Support

Sales

Front Back Office

Freedom and individualism Vital ingredients for the future by degree/applicability

IdeaR&D Design

Prototype Trials

Refinement

Marketing

Angel Friends & Family

Funding Round 1

Funding Round 2

Business Plan Legals

Intellectual Property

Luck !!

start up Country Freedom but a lack of resources

ALL INNOVATION Is complex In a highly connected world outcomes are uncertain

Change is no longer a slow or disconnected Innovation is continually accelerating Perfection is the enemy of innovation Unintended consequences are the norm Causality is no longer always obvious Evolution often outguns design Sustainability is prime factor Open is also a key element

“The need to share trumps the need to know”

Old wisdoms can be outdated Our instincts and experiences can be misguided and wrong

old business thinking Obvious edicts and maxims often dangerous

Minimise outgoing and maximise profit Go for the low hanging fruit Focus on the prime sellers Minimise the product set Stick to the knitting Optimise everything Downsize/Rightsize Cut the slack

“Rapid adaptability improves longevity”

AVOID over Optimisation We are the only species that optimises anything

increaseD brittleness Mother Nature only ever goes for good enough

silicon valley model A unique manifestation of a change process

An impossible to replicate Eco-System that evolved over a >100 year period

The Death Star of innovation and start up community for the EUAccess to funding $Bns

A full support community: Commercial, Education, Legal Finance, Commercial, Talented Managers/Leaders

Self contained economy

silicon valley 2014

A greater hi-tech density and economy greater than any other locat ion on the planet

silicon valley GDP

$80k/year/capita

Global Top Three Zurich

Oslo The Valley

Global Direction Setter

concentrated r e s o u r c e s

Talent Technology

$$$$$ Risk Capital $$$$$

MINDSETPro-Risk

Self Belief Absurd Optimism

Global Domination

Failure is a positive qualification !!

so what of europe ? A bigger population and market than USA

Huge Amounts of Innovation Thriving Start Up Population Shortage of Good Managers Shortage of Good Leaders Poor investment Prospects Extremely Low Achievement

Mixed Political L - R Systems Success Often a Negative Low Risk Cultures Parochial Focus

Highly

Dispe

rsed

Ineffic

ient

Anti -

Wealth

Creati

on

Needs New

Generations To Fix ??

WHEre is europe ? Certainly not in the big league

Not one big (>$100Bn) internet company has emerged from the EU or the EU R&D investments !

Acquired by eBay in 2005 for $2.6Bn

Founded in 2003Janus Friis from DenmarkNiklas Zennström from SwedenSoftware by Estonians Ahti Heinla, Priit Kasesalu, and Jaan Tallinn[29]

The most common pattern:

and who is next ? It might just be SHAZAM Music…

Shazam at $1 Billion Valuation After InvestmentBy MARK SCOTT January 21, 2015 7:43 am The New York Times

LONDON — Shazam, a smartphone application that can identify songs, announced on Wednesday that it had raised $30 million in new funding round valueing the company at $1 Bn

The start-up, (founded in London) and has around 100 monthly million users worldwide, has been rumoured to be moving toward an IPO. It is expected to join other fast-growing tech companies that have tapped the public markets….

europe from the outside

Mostly seen as a negative force trying to contain the new, restricting freedoms, saving old industries and models, repelling the new American imperialism and appearing on the back foot with laws and legislation that willnot work in practice

This is not how our young

entrepreneurs think or act !

EU SLOW RACK Innovat ion Why aren’t all the €Bns invested reaping a huge RoI ?

Fast Track to Innovation Promoting close-to-market innovation

Unworkable demands:  Projects require the involvement of between 3 and 5 participants from at least 3 different EU member states or associated countries

A pittance:  Projects are 70% funded to a max value of €3 million per project.

Silly deadlines:  Application to be submitted by 29 April 2015

laws, legal systems And governments

Always on the back foot, taken by surprise and acting retrospectively, trying to protect the old world to apply past thinking and

seldom users or or experienced

in the latest technologies, and wholly

reactive out of fear or media sensationalism

unworkable EU laws and misguided thinking

Geo Data Patent Law Copyright

Net Blocking Net Neutrality Porno Control

Data Protection P2P Constraints

Internet Privacy Internet Control

Digital Anti-Piracy Internet Censorship

Right to be Forgotten In Country Cloud Only

Data Protection Directive

old thinking

The laws, experiences and wisdoms of the past, old instincts, reserve and social norms seldom fit this new world of networking and sharing…

new thinking

Communicating openly and sharing is more powerful than control, constraint, privacy and unnecessary restriction…

Global networking trumps parochial thinking and local groups..

W A R

G A M I N G

A r t i f i c i a l

I n

t e l l i g e n c e Modellin

gCo

m

puter  

M at e r i al

S c i en c e

Clouds

B I G

D A TA

BYOD

BMOB

DIY IT

Sensors

Robots

C y b e r

Security

some b ig GAMES IN TOWN ? Connected drivers of change acting in unison !

Nano

Bio

inverted Innovation Expertise and experience is on the move

Tanks to ToysIn The P a s t

TodayGames to Guns

OLD Management MindsETS Increasingly dangerous to companies and institutions

tight control

More about leadership and freedom than

Understanding technologyis no longer an option

a new model is required

Planet wide networking of people, groups, companies, education,training, abilities, facilities +++

The need to share trumps the need to know, patents, copyright, commercial secrecy….

Predicting the future Gartner Hype Cycle 2013 - All Happening !

Technology for sure - you can see and touch it in the R&D Labs worldwide - no big guesses

But there are the big surprises and many things we can’t see or understand !

A Very different view A small sample of the non- forecast tech

Multiple Clouds: Fixed, Mobile, Transient, Permanent, Closed, Open, Private, Public, Company Institutional, Gov, Personal National, Global, Local+++

Security: Global Cooperation + Auto-Immune Systems spanning every chip, device, card, shelf, rack, suit, floor, building+++

IoT: Mutates to Clouds of Things

NWI: Nets Without Infrastructure

A Very different view A non - singular future of technologies

Sensors: Combined nano - bio tech sensors superior to a dogs nose…

Farming Robots: Combined nano, bio, GPS, mechatronics, sensors, photonics, networks sans infrastructure, AI…

Artif ic ial intelligence A primary tool of discovery and understandingAnalytics: Veracity Medical Security Big Data Political Networks Economic Genomic Proteomic Diplomatic Complexity ++++

We are way past the point where humans can analyse complexity even on a small scale !

Design: Chips Devices Systems Networks Behaviours ++++

Knowledge: Veracity Linking Creation Curation Searching Selection ++++

IBM WATSON - jeopardy Overtaking humans in 2011 - 2012..

15

10

5

0

Estimated information half-life for different fields of study

Economics

Physics

Medicine

Software Marine Biology

Astro-PhysicsN

umbe

r of

yea

rs a

fter

pub

licat

ion

The impact on society More technology & self sufficiency centric

Greater self determinism Less full time employment Far greater adaptability/mobility

Distributed: Education; Healthcare; Employment; Companies Employment: More Transitory; Demanding Adaptability Education: Continual; Hybrid on and off-line Training: On Demand - by engagement/project

Jobs

lost!

Typists Dockers

Milkman Blacksmith Secretaries

Drawing office Xerox operator

Elevator operator Computer operator

Telephone operator Comptometer operator

Financial report writers ++++

i n My l i fet ime

Jobs

to go!

Testers Tasters Analysts Advisors Educators Reporters Strategists Call centres Report writers Personal bankers Personal assistants Answering services

Investment bankers Warehouse People Personal Assistant

Tech support Stock Trader Receptionist Forecasters Train driver

Researcher Journalist

Drivers Agents Pilots

i n your l i fet ime

Jobs

to be

enhanc

edFabricator Geneticist Generalist Proteomist Multi-designer Problem solver Longevity advisor Big Data Analyst Cellular programmer Material programmer

Complexity analysts Security Experts Entrepreneurs Technologists

Consultants Architects Detectives Designers Engineers Modellers Scientists Medics

i n your l i fet ime

i n your l i fet ime

Jobs

to com

e!

3/4D Designer Risk Profilers

Cyborg Engineer Protein Designer Crime Predictor

Digital Historian Information Caretaker Truth Engine Mediator Component Repurposer

Genome-Protein Activators

Material Programmer Recycling Designers Interface Designers Machine Mediators Wisdom Archivists Genome Designer Material Designer Wisdom Monitors Trouble Shooters Nano-Engineers Bio-Engineers

Thank You

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

1995

ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk