technology forecasting. question 1: what happens to object a in time t if free to evolve ?

Technology Forecasting

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Question 1: what happens to object A in time T if free to evolve ?


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Question 2: what happens if we change object C ?

Forecasting of Technology• Technology “Applying a systematic technique,

method or approach to solve a problem”1

• Forecasting of Technology . . .– Forecasting of Applying,– Forecasting of Systems,– Forecasting of Techniques/Methods,– Forecasting of Solve,– Forecasting of Problems.

Note 1a.The application of science, especially to industrial or commercial objectives. b.The scientific method and material used to achieve a commercial or industrial objective.

Forecasting of Technology

Technological System

ProductPrimaryFunction

Engine

Transmission

Working Means

Cont

rol

Es.:Forecasting of “Machine Tooling”

Grinder

Work Piecemachine

Motor

Tool

Cont

rol U

nit

Transmission

turn

Es.:Forecasting of “Photographic Camera”

Camera

lightrecord

Motor

Focus adjust

Lens Set

Micr

opro

cess

or

Es.:Forecasting of “Semantic Tool”

Semantic TOOLS

conceptsshow

ProSAO II

Database

GUI

Task

Sch

edul

er

ProSAO II

wordstag

Parser

Database

Tagger

Mar

kov

Hidd

en M

odel

TechnologyNesting

Es.:Forecasting of “Semantic Engine”

ProSAO II

wordstag

Parser

Database

Tagger

Mar

kov

Hidd

en M

odel

Es.:Forecasting of “<?>”

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<?><?>

<?>

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Methods for Technology Forecasting

Available Information MethodsTacit Knowledge (Exp.) Delphi

Another Comparable System Analogy Methods

Observation from System Extrapolation

Variables to be predicted Statistics

Phenomena Causal Relations

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Methods for Forecast of Technology

• Forecasting of Technology• Technology “Applying a systematic technique,

method or approach to solve a problem”1

• Forecasting of Technology . . .– Forecasting of Applying,– Forecasting of Systems,– Forecasting of Techniques/Methods,– Forecasting of Solve,– Forecasting of Problems.


• "TIPS" is the acronym for "Theory of Inventive Problem Solving"

• "TRIZ" is the acronym for the same phrase in Russian• TRIZ was developed by Genrich Altshuller and his

colleagues in the former USSR starting in 1946, and is now being developed and practiced throughout the world.

• The research has proceeded in several stages over the last 50 years.

• Over 2 million patents have been examined, classified by level of inventiveness, and analyzed to look for principles of innovation.


TRIZ Basics Achievements:1. Problems and solutions were repeated

across industries and sciences

2. Patterns of technical evolution were repeated across industries and sciences

3. Innovations used scientific effects outside the field where they were developed

TRIZ forecasting

consists these major phases:

1. Analysis of the system's evolution: study of the history of the system and its position on its "life curve" (S-curve)

2. "Road mapping“: application of the Laws and Lines of Technological Systems Evolution to forecast functional and structural alterations in the system

3. Problem formulation: formulation of engineering problems to be solved so as to achieve targets set at the previous phase

4. Problem solving: solving the formulated problems by using powerful analytical and solution tools of TRIZ

Analogy

Extrapolation

Statistics

Causal Relations

technology forecasting. question 1: what happens to object a in time t if free to evolve ?

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