Technology in the ‘Triptych’ approach

Michel den Elzen, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, associated with RIVM

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/2

1. Introduction and original Triptych approach

2. New Triptych approach

• Technology in industry and electricity

2. Results

3. Strengths and weakness

4. Conclusions

Overview

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/3

Original Triptych 1997

Energy CO2 only

Domestic sectors

(Households, services, transport)

Converging per-capita emissions

Industry(energy intensive)

BAU production growth with

efficiency improv. (convergence to eff.

benchmark)

Electricity

BAU production growth with limit for renewables, CHP,

coal and gas

National emission target

Values served as the basis for the negotiations within the EU (1997)

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/4

Sectors of new Triptych approach

Industry Energy and process emissions from

industrial production

CO2, CH4,

N2O

Electricity Emissions from electricity production CO2, CH4,

N2O

Domestic Residential, commercial, transportation, energy-related CO2 emissions from

agriculture, all emissions HFCs, PFCs SF6

CO2, CH4,

N2O, HFCs,

PFCs, SF6

Fossil fuel

production

Coal mining, gas venting, gas leakages and

flaring

CO2, CH4

Agricultural Non-energy-related emissions from the

agricultural sector

CH4, N2O

Waste Landfills, waste incineration, waste water CO2, CH4, N2O

LULUCF Mainly deforestation CO2

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/5

Sectoral global GHG emissions

Source: FAIR 2.2 model

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1

MtC

Industry 20%

Electricity 38%

Domestic 30%

Fossil fuel production 3%

Agriculture 7% Waste 2%

Industry

Electricity

Domestic

Fossil fuelproductionAgriculture

Waste

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/6

Triptych approach

Industry BAU production growth with

efficiency improvement

Electricity BAU production growth with limit for

renewables, coal and gas

Domestic Converging per-capita emissions

Fossil fuel

production

Decline to zero

Agricultural Reduction below BAU

Waste Converging per-capita emissions

Land use

change and

forestry

BAU (here excluded)

Nat

ion

alem

issi

on

tar

get

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/7

Differentiated participation in convergence

Source: Ott et al. 2004

like South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Singapore

like Argentina, Brazil, China, Mexico, South Africa

like Egypt, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan

like Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Zambia).

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/8

1. Strong scenario: Early convergence to final convergence level (p.c. emissions or energy eff. level) (large coalition)

2. Medium scenario: Medium convergence to final convergence level; delayed convergence for the developing countries

• Before participation DCs implement Sustainable development policies and measures or no-lose targets (10% below BaU)

Differentiated participation in convergence

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/9

Industry

• Considerable per capita growth in industrial production from IPCC SRES scenarios

• Energy efficiency varies between countries

• Differentiated convergence of aggregated energy efficiency index (EEI)– EEI: specific energy consumption (SEC) divided by SEC under best current

practices (reference SEC)

– Convergence-level 0.7 (bottom-up studies)

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/10

EEI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100time (years)

USAEU-25JapanBrazilRussiaSouth AfricaChinaIndia

Differentiated convergence in Energy Efficiency Index

Convergence level 0.7

EU, USA: 2050

India 2070

Medium scenario

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/11

Electricity

• Growth in electricity generation from IPCC SRES scenarios

• Energy mix varies between countries

• Emission factors per fuel vary between countries

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/12

Differentiated convergence of emissions/kWh

gCO2/kWh for coal

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100time (years)

USAEU-25JapanBrazilRussiaSouth AfricaChinaIndia

Convergence level 600 gCO2/kWh

Medium scenario

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/13

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050

Brazil China RussiaIndiaEU USASAF

Share in electricity production (%)

Decrease in the share of coal and oil in the fuel mix by 90% in 2050

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050

Renewables, CCSand nucleargas

oil

coal

Brazil China RussiaIndiaEU USASAF

Share in electricity production (%)

Medium scenario Reduction by CCS, renewables etc.

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/14

Sectoral development: Globalemissions (MtCO2/yr)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050time (years)

Domestic reductionsIndustry reductionsPow er reductionsFossil reductionsAgriculture reductionsWaste reductionsDomestic emissionsIndustry emissionsPow er emissionsFossil emissionsAgriculture emissionsWaste emissions

Strong

450 CO2-eq caseA1B scenario

emissions (MtCO2/yr)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050time (years)

Medium

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/15

Medium scenario corresponds with stabilisation 550 ppm CO2eq, and strong with 450 ppm CO2eq

Relative to 1990 (%)

2020 2050

Strong Annex I -25 -75 Non-Annex I 75 25 World 20 -30 Medium Annex I -5 -65 Non-Annex I 85 75 World 35 -5

Reduction of countries are given in MNP report (www.mnp.nl\en)

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/16

Strengths and weaknessWeaknesses: • Rather complex• Requires much sectoral data• Requires agreement on projections of production growth rates for industry and

electricity

Strengths: • compatible with technical emission reduction potentials• Account for national circumstances• Allows level playing field industry• Account for equity principles• Explicitly allows for economic growth and improving efficiency • Successfully applied (on EU level) as a basis for negotiating targets• allows delayed developing country participation

Michel den Elzen, The Triptych approach revisited, MNP report, see: www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/18

Thank you!

MNP report ‘The Triptych approach revisited: A staged sectoral approach for climate mitigation’, see:www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2007/