technology oracle corporation (nyse: orcl) business. these business segments are licensed out to...
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Krause Fund Research Fall 2015
Technology Recommendation: Hold Analysts
Kyle McGrath kyle‐[email protected]
Will Dugan will‐[email protected]
Samuel Wampler sam‐[email protected]
Patrick Bartowski patrick‐[email protected]
Company Overview
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is an industry‐leading application software company within the technology sector. The company provides the necessary products and services that address all aspects of the information technologies environment. Oracle Corporation operates through three major business segments, software and cloud business, hardware systems business, and its service business. These business segments are licensed out to Oracle’s 400,000 worldwide customers. For the fiscal year ending May 31st, 2015, ORCL reported revenue of $38,226B.
Stock Performance Highlights 52 week High $46.71 52 week Low $35.14 Beta Value 1.11 Average Daily Volume 16.68 m
Share Highlights Market Capitalization $161.99 b Shares Outstanding FY 2015 4.34 b Book Value per share $11.00 EPS (FY 2015) $2.26 P/E Ratio 17.51 Dividend Yield 1.65% Dividend Payout Ratio FY 2015 22.54%
Company Performance Highlights ROA FY 2015 8.36% ROE FY 2015 20.42% Sales FY 2015 $38,226 b
Financial Ratios Current Ratio FY 2015 4.13 Debt to Equity FY 2015 88.46%
Current Price: $37.30 Target Price Range: $37.79 ‐ $39.79
ORCL success predicated on capturing cloud growth
The technology sector is currently in a state of high quality growth propelled by global business spending on cloud computing infrastructure and platforms. This segment is expected to grow by a 30% CAGR from 2013 to 2018VI.
Increases in demand for cloud based software will cause a continued decline in new licensing, hardware and service revenues through FY 2016. Despite Q1 cloud revenue up 29% YoYVII, Oracle’s overall revenue will decrease by 1.22% in fiscal year 2016.
Oracle’s SG&A costs associated with cloud offerings have been higher primary due to promotional discounts and sales incentives. As software deals depart from introductory stages, Oracle’s operating margin will increase from 37.38% in 2015 to over 40% by 2017.
Increases in competition and changes in traditional pricing models will put substantial downward pressure on profitability margins in Oracle’s Software and Cloud business segment.
Oracle receives about 30% of its revenue from EMEA and
15% from APAC4. Recent earnings have been negatively affected by unfavorable fluctuation in FX. Expectations of foreign currencies rebalancing in relation to the dollar will enhance perspective on future earnings.
Source: Yahoo Finance
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Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL)
November 13, 2015
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We recommend a HOLD rating on Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) as of November 13th, 2015. By evaluating a relative P/E model based on large cap technology companies, we have concluded Oracle’s appropriate price range to be 37.76 ‐ 39.79. The major factors behind our valuation decision are as follows: Uncertain of ability to generate organic growth, risk of additional operational leverage increase and slowing licensing revenue due to the adoption of alternative pricing models.
Significant economic factors that affect the technology sector
include domestic real GDP, consumer sentiment,
unemployment rate, foreign currency exchange rates and
foreign market growth.
Domestic Real GDP
We anticipate that domestic real GDP will to grow at a stable
rate of 2.97% over the next six months. This modest growth will
be driven by strong consumer spending and an increase in
business investments. Given an expected interest rate rise in Q4
of 2015 and into 2016, firms will be encouraged to capture
inexpensive capital before interest rates rise further stimulating
the economy. However, an increase in the country’s trade
deficit will damper overall growth and keep levels stable.
Continued economic growth will benefit the technology
industry as increase technology updates and purchases exhibit
its cyclical tendencies.
Unemployment
The US unemployment rate will dip to 4.9%, leveling off at a
healthy frictional level in the short‐term. The decreasing trend
in unemployment spurs demand for additional hardware and
software purchases due to license per‐seat limitations. As
companies grow, they will require additional software seats in
order to operate smoothly. On the other hand, an increase in
the number of skilled jobs enables employees to command
higher wages. As wages increases, technology companies will
experience a deterioration of corporate profits and operating
margins. This will cause companies to reduce jobs and in turn
drive up the unemployment rate to 5.4% in the long run. This
reversal is supported by the normalization of labor participation
rates from their financial crisis lows.
Foreign Exchange Rates
The recent strengthening of the dollar due to the artificial
devaluation of the Yen and the ECB’s stimulus package have had
substantial effect on domestic corporate earnings. The
changing landscape has affected many companies in the
technology sector as the group derives more than 59.4% of their
revenue from foreign marketsx. This headwind will remain a
factor in earnings growth throughout 2015, but is expected to
rebalance going forward as Asian growth concerns dissipate and
the Eurozone completes their quantitative easing. These
changes will provide a slight relief to corporate earnings.
Foreign Real GDP
Foreign markets have commanded attention of technology
sales intensifying the impacts of globalization. Global growth
will continue to increase at a rate of 3.3% into 2016x. Europe will
benefit from quantitative easing as it emerges from recession
Executive Summary
Economic Outlook
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and continue to provide a consistent portion of business in the
short‐term. Despite growth concerns in China, the Asia Pacific
area overall will remain an international growth leaders driven
by consumer demand and increasing population sizes.
Furthermore, recent decline of commodity prices have caused
economic instability in other emerging markets such as Brazil,
Russia, and Saudi Arabia. However on a longer time horizon,
these markets will continue to develop, increasing their
utilization and dependency on technology for advancements.
As a result, the technology sector will be amongst the leading
industries.
Capital Market Outlook
Coming off one of the most challenging quarters since the
financial crises in 2008 – 2009, U.S. capital markets are
positioned for slight appreciation in Q4 2015 through 2016.
Positive economic data including strong employment numbers,
a slight increase in wages and strong consumer spending
reassures the health of the US economy. Additionally these
factors ease the job of the Federal Reserve in deciding an
appropriate time to increase the Federal Funds Rate. It is
projected that the U.S. will see a small rate hikes in Q4 2015 and
into 2016. This hike is already priced into the market due to the
recent strong economic data.
However, volatility will return to the market and capital markets
will depreciate if international growth concerns in China and
Europe escalate. Over 40% of the S&P 500 profits are generated
internationally leaving large exposure to these growth
concernsx. An increase in the dollar will also have a negative
effect on capital markets.
Oracle operates in the application software industry which is a part of the technology sector. Companies in this industry create, distribute, and provide service to different software applications for both enterprise and consumer use. Revenue is primarily generated through software licensing where customers buy the rights to use the software. Other revenue streams consist of service packages and software subscriptions. The overall software publishing industry in the United States is expected to show strong growth through 2020. This growth will be driven by the number of mobile internet connection, corporate profits and government spending. Industry revenues are expected to increase at 3.00% annually and reach $226 billion by 2020v.
Industry Trends Cloud Based Software The transition to cloud based software as a service or SaaS is a major trend in the software industry. SaaS applications are located on offsite servers and only require an internet connection to run. This eliminates a company’s need to tie up large amounts of capital on costly in‐house servers and IT departments. In 2016, there will be an 11% shift of IT budgets away from the traditional in‐house data networks.
Source: Barclays Database Market Report
Worldwide SaaS revenues are projected to increase 21% to $106 billion in 2016VI. Companies that are committed to building out their cloud infrastructure will benefit the most from the increase demand in SaaS. From 2013 to 2018 spending on cloud infrastructure and platforms is anticipated to growth at a 30% CAGRVI. The race to determine which company will create the most value in this business segment will be determined by the reliability of their cloud infrastructure and the applications they offer. Pricing Models The traditional pricing model for software publishing companies is structured around large perpetual licensing fees. With the increase in SaaS, companies are starting to transition to an alternative pricing model based on subscription fees. The benefit for companies is revenue streams smooth out and become more predictable as customers switch from a large onetime fee to a periodic payment system. This alternative pricing model also opens the door to market enterprise software to smaller firms who once could not afford the higher licensing fees. The major drawback of changing from a licensing
Industry Analysis
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model to a subscription based model is lower per customer revenue. Customers will only make the switch to the subscription model if it is economically beneficial. To attract customers companies will have to lower their prices. This change will put downward pressure on profitability margins as companies compete to offer the lowest price points for software solution. Companies that already have high profitability margin will be in better positioned to weather the alternative price model changes.
Competitive Landscape Competition in the software industry derives from a company’s ability create, market and sell innovative products that solve unique problems. Successful companies spend substantial capital attracting and retaining highly skilled developers and programmers. These companies will also dedicate a larger portion of their sales on research and development projects to spur innovation. Lastly, international sales will play a large role in the growth of software companies as competition continues to increase. Porters Five Forces Threat of New Entrants The threat of new entrants in the software publishing industry is high due to the small capital needed to conduct business. This ease of entry allows smaller niche companies to engage in intense competition with larger companies for market share in specific product areas. Patents on intellectual property can serve as a modest barrier, however, defending those patents can be costly Threat of Substitutes Substitution in the software industry is low due to the high cost of switching. Enterprise software is highly customizable and often requires a large support system that makes switching difficult and costly. However, with the introduction to SaaS, switching costs will decrease causing competition to increase. Power of Suppliers The power of suppliers in the software industry is high. The main input of software is human capital. Companies must compete to attract and retain a highly skilled labor force. This competition comes at a high price because the skills of a programmer are easily transferable to other competitors, enabling a programmer the ability to leverage their wages. Power of Buyers The power of buyers in the software industry is medium. Customers demand low complexity and low cost structures
when implementing, sourcing, and maintaining their enterprise software and hardware systems. This demand puts downward pressure on margins as companies compete. Intensity of Competitive Rivalry There is a high intensity of rivalry between the four major software companies, Oracle Corporation (ORCL), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM). In 2014, these three companies accounted for one third of the total software industry revenueV.
Peer Comparison Oracle’s direct peer group consists of; Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM), SAP SE (SAP), and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM). This peer group is defined by the products and services they provide and their market capitalization. These five companies compete in many different business segments including; enterprise software, cloud infrastructure, database solutions and IT services. When comparing these five companies it is important to evaluate them on the amount of revenue they generate per employee, the portion of sales they spend on research and design, their profitability margins, international sales levels, and database popularity. These metrics reveal how these companies compete and which companies are positioned for success in the future.
Market Cap Sales Profit
P/E (Billions) (Millions) Margin As of 11/12/2015 FY 2014 2016
MSFT $425.92 $86,451 25.53% 17.0
ORCL $164.74 $38,275 28.62% 13.4
IBM $129.06 $92,793 12.96% 8.7
SAP $94.81 $23,328 18.68% 18.9
CRM $51.33 $4,071 ‐5.70% 82.42
Source: ORCL, IMB, SAP, MSFT, CRM 10‐K
Revenue/Employee Software companies are not reliant on large amounts of capital to operate. The largest expense for software companies is often the salaries they pay their engineers and sales teams. How well a company’s human capital can create and market their products can be analyzed through the amount of revenue generated per employee.
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Source: ORCL, IMB, SAP, MSFT, CRM 10‐K
Microsoft leads the peer group with $675,398 of revenue generated per employee followed by Salesforce.com generating $404,029 of revenue per employee. Oracle sits in the middle of the peer group with $313,730 of revenue generated per employee. Salesforce.com is able to generate a high level of revenue per employee because their entire business model revolves around their client relations management software. Having only one primary business segment allows CRM to staff less employees. In 2014 CRM had 13,300 employees compared to ORCL’s 122,000 and MSFT’s 128,000 employees. Research and Design Success in the software industry is closely tied to a company’s ability to innovate and create new products that are capable of solving unique business problems. For this innovation to occur, companies need to expense large amounts of capital on research projects. R&D spending also shows how much a management team is willing to invest in the future of their company.
R&D as a Percentage of Sales (FY 2014)
CRM ORCL SAP MSFT IBM
15.3% 13.5% 13.3% 13.2% 5.9% Source: ORCL, IMB, SAP, MSFT, CRM 10‐K
Salesforce.com (CRM) leads the peer group with spending 15.3% of their sales on research and design. This allocation equates to CRM spending $623.8 million on research and design in 2014. However in the long run, this level of R&D spending is not sustainable for CRM because they currently have negative operating and profit margins. Oracle comes in second with spending 13.5% of sales on research and design or $5,151 million in 2014. Oracle’s management team has stated they are committed to spending a larger portion of their sales on
research projects in order to lead the competition. This commitment will allow Oracle to continue to be an industry leader in innovation. Profitability Margins How efficiently a company can create and capture value is a large indicator of success in the software industry. The four major software companies, ORCL, MSFT, SAP and IBM accounted for one third of the total software industry revenue in 2014V. Competition is fierce putting downward pressure on margins. However, when looking at operating margins and profitability margins ORCL emerges as the clear leader.
Source: ORCL, IMB, SAP, MSFT, CRM 10‐K
Oracle is the peer group leader in profitably margins. In 2014, ORCL had a 39.12% operating margin and a 28.62% profit margin. Microsoft Corp. came in second with a 31.71% operating margin and a 25.53% profit margin. CRM is left out of the discussion due to their negative profit margin and operating margin in 2014. ORCL’s clear lead on profitability margins is a result of their focus on high margin product lines. In 2014, 77% of ORCL’s revenue came from their software and cloud business (msft and orcl 10‐k). This business segment generated a 74.1% operating margin. ORCL’s competitors derive a smaller portion of their revenue from high margin product lines. For example, in 2014 MSFT generated only 70.9% of their income from commercial and consumer software and cloud licensing, their highest margin product line. Although MSFT’s comparable product line yields a higher operating margin at 90.1% it represents a smaller portion of their total revenue. MSFT also focuses on lower margin business lines. MSFT generated 12.7% of their 2014 revenue from their Computer and Gaming Hardware and Phone and Tablet hardware product lines which had operating margins of 9.8% and 2.7% respectively. Breaking down ORCL’s revenues further, in 2014, Software License Updates and Product Support generated $18,209
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000$675,398
$404,029
$313,730 $313,526$244,455
Revenue per EmployeeFY 2014
39.12%
31.81%28.58%
21.15%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Oracle Corp. MicrosoftCorp.
SAP SE IBM
Profitability MarginsFY 2014
Operating Margin Profit Margin
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million or 47.5% of their total revenue. This is ORCL’s largest business segment and it has a 93.8% operating margin. Comparing this business segment to SAP’s Software and Support Business line, SAP was only able to generate an operating margin of 80.5% on the $14,855 million they earned in 2014. ORCL is able to capture higher margins on their software business line because they are viewed as the market leader in enterprise software and the costs of switching major operational software systems can be costly. As of 2015, ORCL provides at least one of its services to all Fortune 100 companies, the top 20 airlines in the world as well as major government agencies. Being viewed as the market leader will allow ORCL to generate higher margins on their major business lines as well as weather any downward pricing pressures presented by their competitors. International Sales International sales have continued to play a large role in the software industry. Major long‐term growth opportunities lie outside of the United States and as a result, successful software companies are positioning themselves position to capture that growth.
Source: ORCL, IMB, SAP, MSFT, CRM 10‐K
SAP SE is domiciled in Germany therefore by nature they have a larger percentage of their sales coming outside of the United States. After SAP SE, IBM records 65.5% of their sales internationally followed by ORCL and MSFT receiving around 54% of their sales from international customers. As the dollar continues to strengthen, SAP SE will benefit from being headquarter in Germany whereas IMB, ORCL, and MSFT will be hurt by the changes in foreign exchange rates. Salesforce.com is best protected by exchange rate fluctuations however they are positioned the worst to capture international growth opportunities.
Database Popularity As the demand for cloud computing increases, the dependency on physical server’s located onsite is going to continue to decline. Over the next 10 years it is projected that the database industry is going to increase at an annualized rate of 3.1% (). These offsite databases fulfil the same needs as traditional onsite servers, however, they are a cheaper alternative because companies can eliminate their large IT departments. The rise of datacenters will increase the availability of SaaS and create substantial growth opportunities for software publishing companies.
According to a Barclay’s research report on database engine popularity, Oracle is the clear industry leader. Of the 12 most popular database engines used around world, Oracle holds the top two spots with its Oracle Database and MySQL. MSFT’s SQL Server follows close behind and SAP’s Adaptive Server and SAP HANA are at the back of the packXI. Having an already familiar and reliable database structure in place will allow Oracle to address the increasing need for offsite data storage. In the near term this market position will slightly cannibalize service revenues as the transition to offsite database centers reduces their customers’ needs for high IT service contracts. However, in the long‐run having a reliable cloud platform already established will allow Oracle to ability to effectively create and market different software solutions.
Oracle Corporation is the world leader in integrated cloud applications and platform services. ORCL specializes in cloud based enterprise software and database structures. ORCL captures revenue through three main business segments,
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40.0%
60.0%
80.0% 72.1%65.5%
54.7% 54.1%
28.0%
Percentage of International SalesFY 2014
Company Overview
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software and cloud, hardware systems and IT services. For the fiscal year ending May 31st, 2015, ORCL reported revenue of $38,226B with net income of $9,938B. YoY revenue slightly decreased by .13% while net income decreased by 9.28%. Management cited promotional timing provisions on some major new contracts and unfavorable shifts in foreign currency exchange rates as significant factors in the $0.16 shortfall of earnings report in FY 2015. Oracle has not beat earning expectations in six straight quarters prior to Q1 of 2016.
Earnings Per Share
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.69 1.99 2.29 2.42 2.26 Source: ORCL 10‐K
ORCL has a healthy balance sheet. As of May 31, 2015, ORCL has $21,716B in cash and cash equivalents and 32,652B in marketable securities. The cash on hand allows ORCL the flexibility to expand its product portfolio through acquisitions and intensive research and design programs. In 2013, 2014, and 2015, R&D costs accounted for 13.04%, 13.46%, and 14.45% of total sales respectively. ORCL sets itself apart from the competition by engaging in aggressive research and design, providing a holistic suite of software and services and being the industry leader in cloud computing. Corporate Strategy ORCL’s core business strategy is as follows: 1. Write software that allows customers shorter time to
innovation and is easy to manage and testI 2. Build software architecture and hardware that enables
customers to reduce costs and simplify their IT infrastructureI
3. Design secure data structures and management systems that are flexible and scalableI
4. Provide technical expertise and support on all major business lines and productsI
5. Invest in innovative products, services, and companies to enhance current portfolio lineI
Revenue Breakdown Although Oracle operates predominantly in the application software space, it provides its customers with a comprehensive suite of enterprise information technology capabilities. Oracle derives its revenues from three general business segments; cloud and software, hardware and IT services. ORCL has over 400,000 customer worldwideI. However, in 2013, 2014, and 2015 ORCL was not engaged in business with a customer that represented over 10% of their total revenueI. Historically, for Oralce both revenue and operating margins are higher in the
fourth quarter and lowest in the first quarter. This seaonality is a result of how ORCL structures their sales force incentive compensation plans. Majority of ORCL’s sales force is only required to meet 15% of their sales quaota by the end of the first quarterII.
Source: ORCL 10‐K
Software and Cloud Business The software and cloud business segment is the core of Oracle’s operation. In 2015 it accounted for 77% of total revenues. This segment can be further broken down into three revenue streams which include cloud software subscriptions, software licensing, and cloud infrastructure as a service. The application software industry is currently experiencing a drastic shift from traditional onsite software licensing to a more cloud based subscription model. Oracle is the leading provider of cloud abilities in the software industry and has focused specifically on these segments in order to capitalize on increasing demand. From 2013‐2015 Oracle saw a 9.31% decline in new software licenses revenue illustrating the decrease in demand for traditional onsite software licensing. This decline is largely due to the increased interest in SaaS and software subscriptions, which has seen an increase of 63.19% over the same time period. Cloud infrastructure as a service is the third channel that makes up Oracle’s software and cloud revenue stream. This segment has experienced growth as a result of Oracle’s ability to successfully operate and market their enterprise database infrastructure. We expect cloud infrastructure as a service to display a slower growth rate than software subscriptions, but ultimately reach a 20% annual growth rate. Traditional licensing revenue made up 49.3% of total software and cloud revenue in 2015. Despite a long‐term decreasing growth outlook on Oracle’s largest revenue segment, we predict that they will still maintain constant revenue stream attributed to licensing of around $19 billion. Oracle has pivoted their corporate vision to concentrate on their cloud
77%
14%
9%
Revenue BreakdownFY 2015
Software and CloudBusinessHardware Systems
Service Business
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infrastructure and SaaS. We expect to see the development of an advanced cloud suite to return over a 20% YoY growth rate for the next three years. Moving towards cloud based SaaS introduces an alternative pricing model based on periodic subscriptions fees. Majority of traditional software licensing revenue is received through periodic licensing updates. This model tends to create a cyclical inconsistency in revenue stability. As cloud based SaaS grows, the subscription pricing model will also continue to increase as a proportion of overall revenue. This transition will create a more stabilized revenue stream for Oracle. Oracle’s profitability on their software and cloud channel is the highest of the three business segments. The firm reported a gross profit margin of 72.53% in 2015. The cloud software and cloud infrastructure as a service lines have gross profit margins of 34.62% and 31.25% respectively, which are upward trending. Sales and marketing costs associated with these revenue streams have been extremely high as the company makes a push to launch its cloud offerings. As Oracle facilitates their client’s transition to cloud products, we will see less promotional and sales incentives. In 2015, Software licensing has a gross profit margin of 94.01%, which is expected to be sustained given low update costs. On a forward looking note we predict that the decreased demand for software licensing contracts will be largely supported by Oracle’s ability to successfully attract customers seeking cloud based software. We see this keeping overall revenue at modest levels of organic growth. Hardware Systems As a part of Oracle’s comprehensive technology offerings, they provide hardware to clients for on premise enterprise systems. Between the company’s sales of hardware system products and hardware support, Oracle generated $5,205 million in segment revenue for fiscal year 2015. This amount comprised of 14% of the firm’s total revenue. Hardware revenue is earned through the direct and indirect selling of products and service maintenance fees. Revenue from this channel declined by 3.11% in 2015, continuing the company’s struggle to sustain growth in the business segment. Oracle’s hardware products and services provide the company with a gross profit margin of 40.26% in fiscal year 2015. ORCL’s hardware systems business segment will likely continue to decline due to the decrease of on premise isolated network infrastructure and an increase in demand for cloud computing. Service Business Oracle’s service business segment represented 9% of the total revenue in 2015I. It is comprised of three subcategories,
consulting, advanced customer support services, and educational services. Consulting and advanced customer support revenue is generated by on premise training and educational customer seminars. All three business subcategories are fee based structures. YoY segment revenue fell 4% to $3,546 billion in 2015 from $3,704 billion in 2014. This decline was largely a result of an unfavorable currency rate fluctuation. Marginally, the service segment is the lowest of Oracle’s channels, returning a gross profit margin of 20.69% in fiscal year 2015. We expect this margin to decrease going forward, as the cost wages rise for the technology industry. ORCL’s service business will struggle in the future as its revenues are closely related to hardware systems sales.
Catalysts for Growth and Change Oracle’s newer versions of application software has the potential to provide the company an attractive edge amongst its competitors. The company’s ability to effectively market their new software and product cycle, through a subscription format, will provide continued growth of billing and booking figures, allowing the company to capture transition revenues from implementing cloud‐based software. Moreover, when transitioning a company from traditional licensing to a cloud subscription‐based services, Oracle is securing a stable channel of revenue for the long‐term. Companies have the opportunity to change providers as they switch to cloud, but Oracle must maintain a versatile integration environment among products and services to ensure retention of customers.
Key Investment Pros and Cons
Positives Oracle is primed to capitalize on growth in cloud software. Demand for reliable cloud computing software is expended to significantly increase over the next ten years. Oracle has been a leading provider of cloud software and over the last three years has made a suite of cloud base products available to enterprises across the world. The acceptance of the cloud technology has an extremely high ceiling and Oracle is first in line to capture growth. Oracle will continue to provide income and low downside risk in volatile periods. Their revenue stream produces a substantial amount of cash through license updates and will become more stable going forward as subscription based revenue increases. These quality revenue streams support the company’s strong balance sheet and provides a dividend to investors at a rate of 1.65%. The stock has a low beta at 1.115 and operates in an industry that typically performs well in times of economic downturn.
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Negatives Continued misses in cloud revenue estimates combine with extensive new licensing revenue decline will prove problematic, increased operational leverage. Oracle has issued over $17 billion in long‐term debt between fiscal year 2014 and 2015, increasing their debt to equity ratio to 85.46% (FY 2015). Although Oracle currently maintains fair liquidity levels, a failure to capitalize on the cloud transition over the next two to four years will cause operational financial issues. A history of major acquisitions has limited Oracle to low level organic growth forward looking and exposed them to competitor’s innovation. Growth by acquisitions is extremely pricey and often leads to little increase in shareholder value. Oracle lacks the internal ability to develop cutting edge products that spur the organic growth needed to see sizable capital appreciation long‐term. The company is also subject to the increased popularity of open‐source code. As smaller competitors continue to make software that is available for the public to utilize, there is an increasing threat of superior innovation that Oracle is unable to match.
Valuation Summary We recommend a HOLD rating for Oracle Corporation. We arrived at our decision after evaluating multiple valuation methodologies including enterprise DCF, economic profit, relative valuation and dividend discount model. The DCF and EP models estimate an intrinsic share price of $50.50. The application software and general large cap technology relative valuation P/E model estimates an intrinsic share price of $46.36 and $38.79 respectively. Lastly, the DDM model estimates an intrinsic stock price of $41.46. The major assumptions made in the different model are discussed in the following section. Revenue Decomposition Oracle’s revenue can be decomposed into three different segments. The company generates revenue from software and cloud, hardware and IT service. Our estimate for each of these operating segments is grounded in our comprehensive analysis of key economic factors and various industry dynamics. While forecasting revenue we placed significant consideration on both domestic GDP growth and foreign GDP growth, as well as Oracle’s ability to capitalize on future software trends. We forecasted overall software and cloud revenue to decrease by ‐0.34% in fiscal year 2016, which was compressed by disappointing new software license revenue. When predicting short‐term software and cloud revenue we considered Q1 fiscal year 2016 earrings reported on 9/16/2015 as well as specific
management guidance. Our estimate was based on the analysis of Oracle’s three software and cloud subdivisions. In Q1 of 2016 Oracle reported cloud revenue of $611 million, a 29% increase YoY from Q1 2015. Additionally, Oracle’s cloud revenue was largely muted due to a decline in on premise software revenue. Q1 on premise software revenues was reported at $5.85 billion, a 4.00% decrease YoY. This decrease in revenue was attributable to a steep decline in new software license revenue of ‐16% YoY. Cloud based offerings are projected to capture revenue increases of 22.26% in fiscal year 2016 from early adopters seeking to become more efficient with their software. Firms are also incentivized to switch a portion of their operations to the cloud to reduce the amount of IT service spending. Our long‐term forecast of cloud estimates that stabilize around 12% after peaking in 2017. A significant variable in this prediction is both domestic and foreign GDP. We believe that companies are likely to make this transition given the stable economic growth domestically. Foreign enterprises are expected to lag slightly behind domestic investments in software, given current economic instability and lack of cloud infrastructure already in place. This difference in timing was the reason for our slightly lower growth rates, but supported our sustained level of growth into the 2020’s. We have also forecast Oracle’s on premise software licensing revenue to decline in the near‐term as businesses begin to adopt the cloud software technologies. On a longer‐term horizon we believe that software licensing revenue will find a floor after the transition to cloud software has occurred. We do not believe that cloud will become the only source of application software because of the benefits from a hybrid enterprise structure. Firms are more diversified and have better security if they are able to operate a dual structure. We have forecasted between 0.00% and 1.00% growth in overall on premise software licensing growth from 2019 to 2025. Despite a forecasted decrease in overall software and cloud revenue in fiscal year 2016, we anticipate revenue to climb 2.57% YoY in fiscal year 2017. This growth is primarily driven by strong growth in the cloud segment revenues, posting YoY grow of 22.26%, 31.24%, 36.55% in fiscal years 2016, 2017, and 2018. We view the application software industry as an aspect of the overall economy that will continue to be leveraged in the advancement of technology. We anticipate overall long‐term software and cloud revenues to see modest single digit growth through 2025, with its highest revenues in years 2017 through 2021. We forecasted hardware revenue to contract by 5.00% in fiscal year 2016, as a result of continued transition away from on premise software servers. We anticipate this trend to carry into 2017. However, many companies are resorting to a hybrid structure that operates on a dual system using both an onsite
Valuation Analysis
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storage feature, as well as a cloud functionality. As a result, Oracle’s hardware revenue will begin to grow at a rate of 1.00%‐2.0% through 2025. Our model predicts a 3.00% decrease in IT service revenue in fiscal year 2016. This estimate is tied heavily to the growth of hardware sales. On premise servers require a substantial amount of maintenance. Many companies have chosen to eliminate the cost of IT services by transitioning to the cloud. When moving operations to the cloud, corporations are able to significantly scale back their IT departments by placing the responsibility of upkeep on Oracle. We anticipate that service revenue will maintain a downward trend, until picking back up in 2020 as a result of continued complexity of tailoring enterprise software to fit business operations. We forecasted service revenue growth to reach 3.00% by 2025. Dividends/Payout Ratio When forecasting the amount dividend paid in our model we chose to keep the payout ratio constant at 23%, its 2015 fiscal year payout ratio. This allowed dividends to grow based on the assumptions we made in revenue outlook and commit sufficient capital for investments into the business. Income Statement Assumptions Cost of Goods Sold We accounted for cost of goods sold in our model by growing the expense as a three year moving average as a percentage of sales. We chose this approach to forecasting because we believe that historical costs will accurately represent the cost of future goods sold. Cost of goods sold maintains relatively constant around 17% through our forecast to out to 2025. We do anticipate that margins over time will increase as Oracle become more efficient with managing their costs of production. However, as competition in the cloud software space intensifies, we expect that Oracle will experience a decrease in pricing in effort to sustain market share. SG&A Selling, general and administration expenses were forecasted in our model using a three year moving historical average as a percentage of sales. We feel that this will accurately portray forward looking SG&A expenses because Oracle’s sales teams works on a commission basis that is proportional to sales. SG&A expenses make up 22% of sales for the ten forecasted years of our model. Interest Expense Interest expense was accounted for in our model by using the previous year’s balance of long‐term debt and multiplying it by
the company’s pre‐tax cost of debt. We estimated Oracle’s cost of debt by pulling the YTM of 4.702% on a callable bond maturing in 2055 with a coupon payment of 4.375%. We chose this specific bond because it was the security with the longest duration available. The longest maturity most closely matches our attempt to value a company that theoretically will be in business forever. Our model experience over a $700 million increase in interest expense in fiscal year 2016 due the company’s large addition of long‐term debt in 2015. Balance Sheet Assumptions Cash and ST Investments Cash was calculated through the changes in the cash flow statement. A notable change in ORCL’s cash balance occurred in 2015 when they issued $19.8 billion in long‐term debt to finance the acquisition of Micros. This addition in long‐term debt caused cash as a percentage of sales to increase from 46.4% in 2014 to 56.81% in 2015. We believe this high level of cash compared to sales will slowly decline overtime do to ORCL’s constant dividend payout ratio of 23.00% and their share repurchase plan. Short‐term investments were calculated by talking the beginning balance of the account and growing it by a constant rate. ORCL’s short‐term investment are held in extremely short term and liquid securities. Therefore, we grew these investments at the 1 year US Treasury Bill which as of 11/13/2015 was yielding 0.50%. Other Current Asset Accounts There were a number of current asset accounts that we projected to grow at a historical three year moving average as a percentage of sales. This formula was applied to the following accounts: Accounts receivables, other receivables, inventories and other current assets. This method was chosen because as Oracle’s revenue grows, these accounts will increase at same proportion they grew at historically. Property Plant and Equipment From 2013 to 2015 Oracle saw a 26.73% increase in their gross property plant and equipment account. This level of growth was higher than their 10 year average of 8.52%. The large increase was attributed to heavier than usual capital expenditure spending due to the buildup out of their cloud infrastructure. Management’s guidance has stated that their cloud infrastructure build out is nearly complete and after 2016 their gross property plant and equipment account will grow at a more moderate place. To accomplish this, we projected that capital expenditures will grow at a moderate pace of 8.00% until 2025. This level of capital expenditure growth was chosen because it represents the historical average and it allows Oracle to
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preform necessary systematic hardware updates on their cloud infrastructure as new hardware technologies are adopted. Goodwill In the past, Oracle has pursued large acquisitions. However, when evaluating their financial position in the DCF and EP models we valued only the assets they currently had in their possession as of 11/13/2015. We felt trying to anticipate a future acquisition’s scale, timing and how it would flow through Oracle’s financial statements would decrease the accuracy of our models. Debt Oracle’s short‐term debt was projected until 2019 based on a debt schedule provided by management. From 2020 until 2025 a fixed historical average of short‐term debt as a percentage of long‐term debt was used to calculate short‐term debt. This approach was used because we believe the Oracle will carry the same level of short‐term debt as a percentage of long‐term debt going forward. Oracle’s five year short‐term debt as a percentage of long‐term debt is 11.43% and in 2025 their CV of short‐term debt as a percentage of long‐term debt is 11.81%. Joint Ventures Oracle has a minority interest in a small joint venture. In 2015 this stake was worth $435 million. We grew this venture at Oracle’s historical three year average of return on assets which was 11.48%. We felt this number best represented what Oracle required their assets to yield in return. Share Repurchase Plan Over the last three years, Oracle has repurchased on average, $9,640 million worth of shares. Management has stated their latest round of stock repurchases is set to complete in 2016. At the end of 2015 they still had to repurchase balance of $9,200 million worth of stock. Management’s guidance also stated that they are confident they will continue their stock repurchased program. Therefore after 2016, we projected Oracle will repurchase $8,950 million worth of stock every year. This amount was chosen by taking a four year average of historical stock repurchases. Weighted Average Cost of Capital Cost of Equity To calculate Oracle’s cost of equity, we used the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The beta input we used was a five year average of Oracle’s weekly betas. We obtained these raw numbers from Bloomberg. The average five year weekly beta for Oracle is 1.20 which we believe is an accurate representation of Oracle’s operational risks.
The risk free rate we used was the 30 year US Treasury Bond which was yielding 3.06% as of 11/13/2015. We used this rate because our models are constructed around a long‐term time horizon. The market risk premium we used in our cost of equity calculation was 4.62%. This number represents the geometric average excess return of the S&P 500 over the yield on the 30 year treasury from 1928‐2014. Based on these assumptions, we calculated the cost of equity for Oracle to be 8.60%. Cost of Debt To determine the pre‐tax cost of debt for Oracle, we chose the yield‐to‐maturity on their longest outstanding debt instrument. For Oracle, this was a callable bond maturing in 2055. The bond is callable in 2054 and the yield‐to‐maturity is 4.702%. Therefore Oracle’s pretax cost of debt as of 11/13/2015 is 4.702%. To determine the marginal tax rate used to find the after tax cost of debt we calculated a three year average of Oracle’s marginal tax rate which was found in their 10‐K. This calculation gave us a marginal tax rate of 21.37% and an after tax cost of debt of 3.70%. Management did not provide guidance on a target capital structure. Therefore, we kept Oracle’s capital market structure constant. To calculate their current capital structure we used the current book value of short‐term and long‐term debt, the present value of operating leases and the current market value of equity. By doing this, we arrived at a 21.01% debt and 78.99% of equity weighting. WACC Using these assumptions, we calculated Oracle’s weighted average cost of capital to be 7.57% as of 11/13/2015. This cost of capital was used to discount cash flows throughout all forecasted periods in our DCF model. Discounted Cash Flows and Economic Profit The Discounted Free Cash Flows and Economic Profit valuation models produced an intrinsic stock price of $48.95. After adjusting for the passage of time since 05/31/2015 the DCF and EP models projected a stock price of $50.50. This price represents a 35.36% upside in capital gains over the current share price of $37.30 as of 11/13/2015. The upside in capital gains presented by the DCF and EP models arises from the following factors: Oracle’s position as the market leader in enterprise software, Oracle’s substantial lead
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in profitability margins amongst direct peer comparisons and Oracle’s popularity with their cloud and data infrastructure. Dividend Discount Model The dividend discount model generated an intrinsic stock price of $41.44. This represents an 11.10% income premium over the current stock price of $37.70 as of 11/13/2015. We believe that the dividend discount model is not an accurate representation of the intrinsic value of Oracle’s stock. Although Oracle pays a significant dividend, they have had sporadic growth in their dividend per share over the last five years. This inconsistent growth makes it challenging to accurately predict an appropriate dividend payout ratio and for that reason we are not using the DDM to valuate Oracle. Relative P/E To value Oracle based on comparable firms, we used a forward price to earnings ratio because it is able to capture the pricing premium company’s trade at in the technology industry. Given the high growth nature of technology companies, we felt that understanding the cost basis associated with a firm’s earnings provides insight to value creating amongst Oracle’s peers. We additionally considered a firm’s operational risk and future growth alongside price to earnings levels in order to develop a valuation consensus. Oracle separates itself from pure play application software companies given its $160 billion market cap and its involvement in the hardware and IT service space. As a result, we computed two separate relative price to earnings valuation models to determine Oracle’s position in the application software industry and general large cap technology companies. The group of comparable application software companies included highlights such as Salesforce.com, SAP, Microsoft, and Intuit. These firms represented the core producers in the application software arena. We ultimately excluded salesforce from the valuation calculation due to its forward P/E ratio of 103.6. Our second relative P/E valuation was made up of technology stocks having a market capitalization over $48 billion. Highlights of the comparable group include Cisco Systems, Intel Corp, Apple, IBM and Microsoft. We excluded IBM from our valuation calculation because of the company’s low forward P/E ratio of 8.8. In addition to market cap, this peer group was compiled by identifying market leaders in their respective industries of the technology sector. Our relative P/E valuation models produced an intrinsic stock price of $38.79 from the large cap tech sample and $46.36 from the application software sample. Oracle’s forward P/E was forecasted at 14.6, which is below the average software ratio of 18.3 and below the large cap tech ratio of 15.2.
The model suggests that Oracle trades a lower price to earnings multiple than both application software competitors and major large cap technology players. We feel the valuation provided from the application software does not accurately represent Oracle’s true value. Oracles price to earnings ratio is lower in comparison to this sample because it is a strongly established software provider and large licensing revenue stream. Several of the companies included in the valuation are relatively younger companies that have very high expectations, which has driven up their earnings multiple. However, we feel the intrinsic stock price of the large cap technology valuation accurately represents a fair value of Oracle Corporation. We believe this valuation more accurately represents the company’s instruct value because of Oracle’s positioning atop the software industry. This peer group of technology subindustry leaders tends to trade together which produces an accurate valuation metrics. We ultimately used the relative P/E of large cap technology as the basis for our target price range and recommendation. We believe based on our intrinsic price of 38.79, Oracle is currently underpriced providing a margin of safety of only 3.99%. Although there is room potential capital appreciation, we believe that the company presents a significant amount of risk given evolution of their software revenue structure. This transition has been costly for Oracle and with expected lower revenues in fiscal year 2016, increased leverage may prove problematic. In addition, the looming uncertainties of cloud computing growth paired with increase competition in the cloud market could cannibalize Oracle’s market share affecting the overall profitability of the firm. Based on this valuation we have deem Oracle a Hold, with a target price range of $37.79 ‐ $39.79. Sensitivity Analysis An important part of analyzing Discounted Cash Flow and Economic Profit models it preforming a sensitivity analysis on the assumptions that are made throughout the calculations. This importance derives from the weight CV assumptions have on the output of the models. We evaluated our key assumptions in our DCF and EP models by looking at sensitivity tables and how different input levels effect the intrinsic price. CV Growth of NOPLAT vs. Beta To find the CV value in the DCF and EP models a steady state of growth needs to be chosen for NOPLAT. We assumed Oracle would achieve steady state in 2025 where the growth in NOPLAT would be 2.97%. This growth would be on par with our forecasted Real GDP growth for the United States. By analyzing the CV Growth of NOPLAT vs. Beta sensitivity table it is evident that holding all equal, if the CV growth rate assumption increases from 2.97% to 3.97%, a 1.00% increase, the intrinsic value of Oracle’s stock will increase to $58.16, a 15.19% change. In price. Similarly, if the CV growth rate falls to 1.97%, a
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1.00% decrease, the intrinsic value of Oracle’s stock will decrease to $45.56, a 9.76% change in price. A small change in the CV growth rate assumption has a large effect on the intrinsic value of the stock. This sensitivity stresses the importance of choosing a CV growth rate that takes into the consideration the long‐term growth projection of the United States economy. Through our economic analysis we believe a CV growth rate of 2.97% represents a proper growth outlook. In our DCF and EP models, the beta we used to find the cost of equity in Oracle’s weighted average cost of capital calculation was 1.20. Changing a firm’s beta effects the discount rate used in the DCF and EP models thus effecting the intrinsic value of their stock. Holding all else equal, if Oracles beta increases 30 basis points to 1.50 the intrinsic price per share would decrease to $40.96, an 18.9% decrease in price. This change can be explained by the capital structure used in the WACC calculation. Oracle has a 21.01% debt and 78.99% equity capital structure. This high weighting in equity plays a large role in determining the WACC. However, when comparing a change in the CV growth rate to a change in beta, it is clear that the CV growth rare plays a larger role in effecting the intrinsic value of stock. WACC vs. CV ROIC One of the major inputs in the DCF and EP models is the weighted average cost of capital. This rate is used to discount the free cash flows and economic profit. In simple terms, a higher WACC would produce a lower present value of future cash flows and a lower WACC would produce a higher present values of future cash flow. Oracle has a weighted average cost of capital of 7.57%. Holding all else equal, by increasing Oracle’s WACC by 40 basis point or 7.97%, the intrinsic price fall 8.07% to $45.75. If the WACC is decreased 40 basis points or 5.3%, the intrinsic price increases 7.8% to $46.42. From this analysis it is apparent that the price of the stock is more sensitive to increases in the WACC than decreases. Taking this into consideration if the Federal Reserve engages in larger than anticipated interest rate hikes in the near term, Oracle’s price performance will suffer because the 30 year US Treasury Bond plays a large role in determining the WACC. Return on Invested Capital plays an important role in determining the continuing value for the Economic Profit model. ROIC is calculated using the formula NOPLATt/ICt‐1. For the EP model, we used a CV ROIC of 26.80%. Holding all else equal, if the CV ROIC increases 4.00% to 30.80% the intrinsic value per share would increase from $50.50 to $51.05. This increase only represents a 1.10% change in price. Compared to the other assumptions tested, CV ROIC has the smallest impact on Oracle’s intrinsic value of stock.
Equity Risk Premium vs. Risk‐Free Rate Two major factors that go into finding the cost of equity used in the WACC calculation are the risk‐free rate and the equity risk premium. As of 11/13/2015 the DCF model used a 4.62% equity risk premium and a 3.06% risk‐free rate. These two assumption are critical in Oracle’s WACC calculation which is used to discount their future cash flows in the DCF and EP models. Currently, the United States is experiencing artificially low interest rates. As the economy continues to strengthen and unemployment stays low, we anticipate the US will see a modest interest rates rise throughout 2016. Therefore, we wanted to test how a rising interest rate environment affects the intrinsic value of Oracle’s stock. Holding all else equal, if the risk‐free rate increases 1.00% to 3.46% the intrinsic value of the stock will decrease 14.56% to $43.14. Similarly, if the risk‐free rate fall by 1.00% to 2.06% the intrinsic value of the stock will increase by 20.43% to $60.81%. The equity risk premium also plays a major role calculating the cost of equity. Holding all else equal, if the equity risk premium increases by 1.00% to 5.62% the intrinsic value of Oracle’s stock will decrease by 16.73% to $42.05. Likewise, if the equity risk premium decreases by 1.00% to 3.62% the intrinsic value of Oracle’s stock will increase by 25.39% to $63.31. Changes in both the risk‐free rate and equity risk premium result in large price fluctuations in the intrinsic value of Oracle’s stock. This is due to the high weight of equity and low weight of debt used to calculate Oracle’s WACC. As of 11/13/2015 this capital structure was a 21.01% debt and 78.99% of equity weighting. Capital Expenditures Capital expenditures play a large role in determining future organic growth. Throughout our forecasted period we assumed a capital expenditure growth rate of 8.00%. We made this assumption based on a 10 year historical average. If the capex growth rate increases by 2.00% to 10.00% the intrinsic value per share would decrease by 2.40% to $49.29. Likewise, if the capex rate were to fall by 2.00% to 6.00% the intrinsic value per share would increase by 2.13% to $52.07. As Oracle finishes their cloud infrastructure build out, we are confident that their capex growth rate will return to historical levels.
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Important Disclaimer This report was created by students enrolled in the Security Analysis (6F:112) class at the University of Iowa. The report was originally created to offer an internal investment recommendation for the University of Iowa Krause Fund and its advisory board. The report also provides potential employers and other interested parties an example of the students’ skills, knowledge and abilities. Members of the Krause Fund are not registered investment advisors, brokers or officially licensed financial professionals. The investment advice contained in this report does not represent an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. Unless otherwise noted, facts and figures included in this report are from publicly available sources. This report is not a complete compilation of data, and its accuracy is not guaranteed. From time to time, the University of Iowa, its faculty, staff, students, or the Krause Fund may hold a financial interest in the companies mentioned in this report.
Sources I. Oracle Corporation 2015 10‐K. 9/23/2015 II. Murphy, Mark. “Deep‐Dive Partner Interviews Show a
Wide Range of Opinions as Could Offering Evolve,” J.P.Morgan, Sept 16, 2015, available from Thomson One, Accessed Sept 21, 2015.
III. Lenschow, Raimo. “Slow Cloud Progess; Waiting for 2H,” Barclays, Sept 17, 2015, available from Thomson One, Accessed Sept 21, 2015.
IV. Egbert, Katherine. “Q1:FY16 Preview: Continued Transistion to Subscription‐Based Cloud Revenue,” PiperJaffray, Sept 11, 2015, available from Thomson One, Accessed Sept 21, 2015.
V. IBISWorld United States, Sept 21, 2015, retrieved from http://clients1.ibisworld.com/
VI. Columbus, Louis. “Roundup on Cloud Computing Forecasts and Market Estimate, 2015”. Forbes. (24 Jan 2015). Retrieved from: http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2015/01/24/roundup‐of‐cloud‐computing‐forecasts‐and‐market‐estimates‐2015/
VII. http://investor.oracle.com/financial‐news/financial‐news‐details/2015/Cloud‐SaaS‐and‐PaaS‐Revenues‐up‐34‐in‐US‐Dollars‐and‐up‐38‐in‐Constant‐Currency/default.aspx
VIII. Trading economics IX. http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global‐
economic‐prospects/regional‐outlooks X. S&P Capital IQ, November 13, 2015. Retrieved from
https://www.capitaliq.com/CIQDotNet/Login.aspx XI. Lenschow, Raimo. “Database Market Remains in
Focus,” Barclays, Sept 17, 2015, available from Thomson One, Accessed Sept 21, 2015.
XII. Microsoft Corporation 2015 10‐K. 9/23/2015 XIII. SAP SE 2015 10‐K. 9/25/2015
XIV. International Business Machines Corporation 2015 10‐K. 9/23/2015
Oracle Corporation
Revenue Decomposition
Fiscal Years Ending May 31, 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Revenues:
New Software Licences 9,906.00 9,411.00 9,416.00 8,535.00 7,596.15 7,368.27 7,220.90 7,148.69 7,077.20 7,147.98 7,219.46 7,291.65 7,364.57 7,438.21
YoY Growth 7.27% ‐5.00% 0.05% ‐9.36% ‐11.00% ‐3.00% ‐2.00% ‐1.00% ‐1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Cloud Software as a Service and Platform as a Service 0.00 910.00 1,121.00 1,485.00 1,856.25 2,505.94 3,508.31 4,209.98 5,051.97 5,683.47 6,251.81 6,876.99 7,564.69 8,321.16
YoY Growth 23.19% 32.47% 25.00% 35.00% 40.00% 20.00% 20.00% 12.50% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
Cloud Infrastructure as a Service 0.00 457.00 456.00 608.00 699.20 839.04 1,048.80 1,258.56 1,447.34 1,628.26 1,831.79 2,198.15 2,417.97 2,611.41
YoY Growth ‐0.22% 33.33% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 12.50% 12.50% 20.00% 10.00% 8.00%
Software License Updates 16,210.00 17,142.00 18,206.00 18,847.00 19,223.94 19,416.18 19,610.34 19,806.44 20,004.51 20,004.51 19,804.46 19,606.42 19,410.36 19,216.25
YoY Growth 9.56% 5.75% 6.21% 3.52% 2.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.00% ‐1.00% ‐1.00% ‐1.00% ‐1.00%
Software and Cloud Revenues 26,116.00 27,920.00 29,199.00 29,475.00 29,375.54 30,129.42 31,388.35 32,423.67 33,581.03 34,464.21 35,107.53 35,973.22 36,757.58 37,587.03
YoY Growth 8.68% 6.91% 4.58% 0.95% ‐0.34% 2.57% 4.18% 3.30% 3.57% 2.63% 1.87% 2.47% 2.18% 2.26%
Hardware system products 3,827.00 3,033.00 2,976.00 2,825.00 2,683.75 2,603.24 2,655.30 2,708.41 2,762.58 2,790.20 2,818.10 2,846.29 2,874.75 2,903.50
YoY Growth ‐12.67% ‐20.75% ‐1.88% ‐5.07% ‐5.00% ‐3.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Hardware systems support 2,475.00 2,313.00 2,396.00 2,380.00 2,261.00 2,170.56 2,213.97 2,258.25 2,303.42 2,326.45 2,349.71 2,373.21 2,396.94 2,420.91
YoY Growth ‐3.40% ‐6.55% 3.59% ‐0.67% ‐5.00% ‐4.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Hardware systems Revenue 6,302.00 5,346.00 5,372.00 5,205.00 4,944.75 4,773.80 4,869.27 4,966.66 5,065.99 5,116.65 5,167.82 5,219.50 5,271.69 5,324.41
YoY Growth ‐9.25% ‐15.17% 0.49% ‐3.11% ‐5.00% ‐3.46% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Services Revenue 4,703.00 3,914.00 3,704.00 3,546.00 3,439.62 3,336.43 3,303.07 3,270.04 3,302.74 3,368.79 3,436.17 3,539.25 3,645.43 3,754.79
YoY Growth 1.21% ‐16.78% ‐5.37% ‐4.27% ‐3.00% ‐3.00% ‐1.00% ‐1.00% 1.00% 2.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Total Revenue 37,121.00 37,180.00 38,275.00 38,226.00 37,759.91 38,239.65 39,560.69 40,660.37 41,949.76 42,949.66 43,711.51 44,731.97 45,674.71 46,666.24
YoY Growth 4.21% 0.16% 2.95% ‐0.13% ‐1.22% 1.27% 3.45% 2.78% 3.17% 2.38% 1.77% 2.33% 2.11% 2.17%
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
YoY Growth Projections
Software and Cloud Revenue
New Software Licences ‐11.00% ‐3.00% ‐2.00% ‐1.00% ‐1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Cloud as a Service & PaaS 25.00% 35.00% 40.00% 20.00% 20.00% 12.50% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
Cloud Infrastructure as a Service 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 12.50% 12.50% 20.00% 10.00% 8.00%
Software License 2.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.00% ‐1.00% ‐1.00% ‐1.00% ‐1.00%
Hardware Systems Revenue
Hardware System Products ‐5.00% ‐3.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Hardware System Support ‐5.00% ‐4.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Serivce Revenue ‐3.00% ‐3.00% ‐1.00% ‐1.00% 1.00% 2.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
% of Total Revenue
Revenues:
New Software Licences 26.69% 25.31% 24.60% 22.33% 20.12% 19.27% 18.25% 17.58% 16.87% 16.64% 16.52% 16.30% 16.12% 15.94%YoY Growth
Cloud Software as a Service and Platform as a Service
0.00% 2.45% 2.93% 3.88% 4.92% 6.55% 8.87% 10.35% 12.04% 13.23% 14.30% 15.37% 16.56% 17.83%YoY Growth
Cloud Infrastructure as a Service 0.00% 1.23% 1.19% 1.59% 1.85% 2.19% 2.65% 3.10% 3.45% 3.79% 4.19% 4.91% 5.29% 5.60%YoY Growth
Software License Updates 43.67% 46.11% 47.57% 49.30% 50.91% 50.77% 49.57% 48.71% 47.69% 46.58% 45.31% 43.83% 42.50% 41.18%YoY Growth
Software and Cloud Revenues 70.35% 75.09% 76.29% 77.11% 77.80% 78.79% 79.34% 79.74% 80.05% 80.24% 80.32% 80.42% 80.48% 80.54%YoY Growth
Hardware system products 10.31% 8.16% 7.78% 7.39% 7.11% 6.81% 6.71% 6.66% 6.59% 6.50% 6.45% 6.36% 6.29% 6.22%YoY Growth
Hardware systems support 6.67% 6.22% 6.26% 6.23% 5.99% 5.68% 5.60% 5.55% 5.49% 5.42% 5.38% 5.31% 5.25% 5.19%
YoY Growth
Hardware systems Revenue 16.98% 14.38% 14.04% 13.62% 13.10% 12.48% 12.31% 12.21% 12.08% 11.91% 11.82% 11.67% 11.54% 11.41%
YoY Growth
Services Revenue 12.67% 10.53% 9.68% 9.28% 9.11% 8.73% 8.35% 8.04% 7.87% 7.84% 7.86% 7.91% 7.98% 8.05%
YoY Growth
Total Revenue 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%YoY Growth
Oracle CorporationIncome Statement
Fiscal Years Ending 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Sales 37,180 38,275 38,226 37,760 38,240 39,561 40,660 41,950 42,950 43,712 44,732 45,675 46,666
COGS excluding D&A 6,567 6,628 6,820 6,648 6,726 6,994 7,166 7,396 7,578 7,708 7,889 8,056 8,230
Depreciation 546 608 712 753 940 1,107 1,215 1,372 1,518 1,657 1,816 1,977 2,147
Amortization of Intangibles 2,385 2,300 2,149 1,624 995 848 742 598 320 320 320 320 320
Gross Income 27,682 28,739 28,545 28,735 29,579 30,612 31,537 32,584 33,534 34,027 34,707 35,322 35,970
Research & Development 4,850 5,151 5,524 5,155 5,297 5,533 5,623 5,827 5,971 6,064 6,212 6,343 6,479
Other SG&A 8,400 8,605 8,732 8,549 8,663 8,985 9,217 9,514 9,744 9,913 10,146 10,360 10,584
EBIT 14,432 14,983 14,289 15,032 15,618 16,094 16,697 17,244 17,820 18,049 18,349 18,618 18,907
Nonoperating Interest Income 237 263 349 507 515 525 521 526 529 530 534 536 539
Interest Expense 797 914 1,143 1,879 1,879 1,622 1,484 1,385 1,284 1,334 1,388 1,442 1,501
Pretax Income 14,010 13,802 12,947 13,660 14,254 14,998 15,734 16,384 17,065 17,246 17,495 17,713 17,945
Income Taxes 2,973 2,749 2,896 2,919 3,046 3,204 3,362 3,501 3,646 3,685 3,738 3,785 3,834
Consolidated Net Income 11,037 11,053 10,051 10,741 11,208 11,793 12,372 12,884 13,418 13,561 13,757 13,928 14,111
Minority Interest 112 98 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113
Net Income 10,925 10,955 9,938 10,628 11,095 11,680 12,259 12,771 13,305 13,448 13,644 13,815 13,998
EPS (recurring) 2.22 2.41 2.26 2.56 2.78 3.03 3.28 3.52 3.77 3.96 4.18 4.40 4.63
Total Shares Outstanding 4,646.00 4,464.00 4,343.00 4,153.04 3,995.69 3,855.84 3,732.10 3,623.18 3,527.93 3,398.00 3,263.30 3,139.26 3,025.04
Dividends per Share 0.30 0.48 0.51 0.59 0.64 0.70 0.76 0.81 0.87 0.91 0.96 1.01 1.06
Payout Ratio 13.52% 19.89% 22.54% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00%
Oracle Corporation
Balance Sheet
Fiscal Years Ending May 31, 2,013 2,014 2,015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash Only 14,613 17,769 21,716 19,091 19,711 14,075 15,728 14,763 17,758 20,326 22,620 25,068 27,721
Total Short Term Investments 17,603 21,050 32,652 32,815 32,979 33,144 33,310 33,477 33,644 33,812 33,981 34,151 34,322
Accounts Receivables, Net 6,049 6,087 5,618 5,899 5,892 6,030 6,272 6,443 6,589 6,720 6,870 7,015 7,170
Other Receivables 826 906 817 847 860 874 908 936 955 975 997 1,017 1,040
Inventories 240 189 314 247 251 281 274 285 295 297 305 312 318
Other Current Assets 2,361 2,137 2,066 2,182 2,137 2,212 2,299 2,354 2,413 2,460 2,514 2,568 2,624
Total Current Assets 41,692 48,138 63,183 61,081 61,831 56,617 58,790 58,257 61,655 64,591 67,287 70,131 73,194
Property, Plant & Equipment - Gross 5,756 6,239 7,295 8,797 10,420 12,172 14,064 16,108 18,316 20,700 23,274 26,055 29,058
Less: Accumulated Depreciation 2,703 3,178 3,609 4,362 5,302 6,409 7,623 8,995 10,513 12,170 13,986 15,963 18,110
Net Property, Plant & Equipment 3,053 3,061 3,686 4,436 5,118 5,763 6,441 7,113 7,803 8,529 9,288 10,091 10,948
Net Goodwill 27,343 29,652 34,087 34,087 34,087 34,087 34,087 34,087 34,087 34,087 34,087 34,087 34,087
Net Other Intangibles 6,640 6,137 6,406 6,931 7,560 7,707 7,813 7,957 8,235 8,235 8,235 8,235 8,235
Deferred Tax Assets 766 837 795 805 841 907 936 972 999 995 995 996 998
Other Assets 2,277 2,519 2,746 3,337 3,367 3,418 3,284 3,377 3,387 3,520 3,636 3,743 3,857
Total Assets 81,812 90,344 110,903 110,676 112,804 108,499 111,352 111,764 116,166 119,957 123,528 127,284 131,320
Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity
ST Debt & Curr. Portion LT Debt 0 1,508 1,999 0 6,000 2,000 4,500 3,627 3,363 3,493 3,634 3,777 3,930
Accounts Payable 419 471 806 796 806 834 857 885 906 922 943 963 984
Income Tax Payable 1,022 545 617 735 673 732 786 797 839 849 858 870 882
Deferred Revenue 7,118 7,673 7,638 7,448 7,616 7,862 8,066 8,338 8,531 8,681 8,887 9,072 9,269
Other Current Liabilities 4,313 4,192 4,231 4,232 4,235 4,398 4,527 4,660 4,776 4,861 4,973 5,079 5,189
Total Current Liabilities 12,872 14,389 15,291 13,210 19,331 15,827 18,737 18,307 18,415 18,806 19,294 19,762 20,254
Long-Term Debt 18,494 22,667 39,959 39,959 34,500 31,552 29,451 27,311 28,362 29,512 30,672 31,913 33,244
Deferred Tax Liabilities 173 258 380 275 287 302 317 330 344 348 353 357 362
Other Liabilities 5,128 5,216 6,141 7,290 7,285 7,502 7,163 7,362 7,401 7,681 7,935 8,173 8,419
Total Liabilities 36,667 42,897 61,805 60,735 61,404 55,184 55,668 53,310 54,521 56,346 58,255 60,204 62,278
Common Stock Par/Carry Value 18,893 21,077 23,156 24,966 26,775 28,585 30,394 32,204 34,014 34,479 34,479 34,479 34,479
Retained Earnings 25,854 25,965 26,503 25,487 25,080 25,124 25,613 26,497 27,792 29,197 30,753 32,441 34,269
Other Comprehensive Income (99) (164) (996) (996) (996) (996) (996) (996) (996) (996) (996) (996) (996)
Total Shareholders' Equity 44,648 46,878 48,663 49,456 50,859 52,713 55,012 57,705 60,809 62,680 64,236 65,924 67,752
Accumulated Minority Interest 497 569 435 485 541 603 672 749 835 931 1,038 1,157 1,290
Total Equity 45,145 47,447 49,098 49,941 51,400 53,315 55,684 58,454 61,644 63,611 65,274 67,080 69,042
Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 81,812 90,344 110,903 110,676 112,804 108,499 111,352 111,764 116,166 119,957 123,528 127,284 131,320
Oracle CorporationCash Flow Statement
Fiscal Years Ending May 31, 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Cash from Operating ActivitiesNet Income 10,628$ 11,095$ 11,680$ 12,259$ 12,771$ 13,305$ 13,448$ 13,644$ 13,815$ 13,998$
Depreciation 753 940 1,107 1,215 1,372 1,518 1,657 1,816 1,977 2,147
Amortization of Intangibles 1,624 995 848 742 598 320 320 320 320 320
Change in Deferred Taxes (115) (24) (51) (14) (23) (13) 8 5 3 3
Changes in Working CapitalNet Receivables (281) 7 (138) (242) (171) (146) (131) (149) (145) (155)
Inventories 67 (4) (30) 7 (11) (10) (2) (8) (7) (6)
Other Receivables (30) (13) (14) (34) (28) (20) (19) (22) (21) (23)
Other Current Assets (116) 45 (75) (87) (55) (59) (47) (54) (54) (56)
Accounts Payable (10) 10 28 23 27 21 16 22 20 21
Current & LT Other Liabilities 1,150 (2) 380 (210) 332 154 365 366 344 356
Income Taxes Payable 118 (62) 59 53 12 41 11 8 13 11
Provisions for Risk & Charges (34) - - - - - - - - -
Minority Interest 50 56 62 69 77 86 96 107 119 133
Deferred Revenue (190) 169 246 204 272 193 150 206 186 197
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities 13,614$ 13,213$ 14,102$ 13,986$ 15,172$ 15,389$ 15,872$ 16,260$ 16,570$ 16,946$
Cash from Investing Activities(Increase) decrease in ST Investments (163) (164) (165) (166) (167) (167) (168) (169) (170) (171)
Change in Gross PP&E (1,502) (1,622) (1,752) (1,892) (2,044) (2,207) (2,384) (2,575) (2,781) (3,003)
Change in Gross Intangible Assets (2,149) (1,624) (995) (848) (742) (598) (320) (320) (320) (320)
(Increase) decrease in Other Assets (591) (31) (51) 134 (93) (9) (133) (116) (107) (114)
Net Cash Provided by Investing Activities (4,405)$ (3,441)$ (2,963)$ (2,772)$ (3,046)$ (2,982)$ (3,005)$ (3,180)$ (3,378)$ (3,608)$
Cash from FinancingChanges in Current Portion of LT Debt (1,999) 6,000 (4,000) 2,500 (873) (264) 129 142 143 153
Proceeds from Issuance of LT Debt - (5,459) (2,948) (2,101) (2,141) 1,051 1,150 1,160 1,240 1,331
Payment of Dividends (2,445) (2,552) (2,686) (2,820) (2,937) (3,060) (3,093) (3,138) (3,177) (3,220)
Proceeds from Issuance of Common Stock 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 1,810 465 - - -
Repurchases of Common Stock (9,200) (8,950) (8,950) (8,950) (8,950) (8,950) (8,950) (8,950) (8,950) (8,950)
Net Cash Provided by Financing Activities (11,834)$ (9,151)$ (16,775)$ (9,561)$ (13,091)$ (9,413)$ (10,298)$ (10,786)$ (10,744)$ (10,686)$
Net Change in Cash (2,625)$ 621$ (5,636)$ 1,653$ (965)$ 2,995$ 2,568$ 2,294$ 2,448$ 2,653$
Beginning Cash 21,716$ 19,091$ 19,711$ 14,075$ 15,728$ 14,763$ 17,758$ 20,326$ 22,620$ 25,068$
Ending Cash 19,091$ 19,711$ 14,075$ 15,728$ 14,763$ 17,758$ 20,326$ 22,620$ 25,068$ 27,721$
Oracle CorporationCommon Size Income Statement
Fiscal Years Ending May 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Sales 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
COGS excluding D&A 17.66% 17.32% 17.84% 17.61% 17.59% 17.68% 17.62% 17.63% 17.64% 17.63% 17.64% 17.64% 17.64%
Depreciation 1.47% 1.59% 1.86% 1.99% 2.46% 2.80% 2.99% 3.27% 3.53% 3.79% 4.06% 4.33% 4.60%
Amortization of Intangimles 6.41% 6.01% 5.62% 4.30% 2.60% 2.14% 1.82% 1.43% 0.74% 0.73% 0.71% 0.70% 0.69%
Gross Income 74.45% 75.09% 74.67% 76.10% 77.35% 77.38% 77.56% 77.67% 78.08% 77.84% 77.59% 77.33% 77.08%
Research & Development 13.04% 13.46% 14.45% 13.65% 13.85% 13.99% 13.83% 13.89% 13.90% 13.87% 13.89% 13.89% 13.88%
Other SG&A 22.59% 22.48% 22.84% 22.64% 22.65% 22.71% 22.67% 22.68% 22.69% 22.68% 22.68% 22.68% 22.68%
EBIT 38.82% 39.15% 37.38% 39.81% 40.84% 40.68% 41.06% 41.11% 41.49% 41.29% 41.02% 40.76% 40.52%
Nonoperating Interest Income 0.64% 0.69% 0.91% 1.34% 1.35% 1.33% 1.28% 1.25% 1.23% 1.21% 1.19% 1.17% 1.15%
Interest Expense 2.14% 2.39% 2.99% 4.98% 4.91% 4.10% 3.65% 3.30% 2.99% 3.05% 3.10% 3.16% 3.22%
Pretax Income 37.68% 36.06% 33.87% 36.18% 37.28% 37.91% 38.70% 39.06% 39.73% 39.45% 39.11% 38.78% 38.45%
Income Taxes 8.00% 7.18% 7.58% 7.73% 7.96% 8.10% 8.27% 8.35% 8.49% 8.43% 8.36% 8.29% 8.22%
Consolidated Net Income 29.69% 28.88% 26.29% 28.45% 29.31% 29.81% 30.43% 30.71% 31.24% 31.02% 30.75% 30.49% 30.24%
Minority Interest 0.30% 0.26% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.29% 0.28% 0.27% 0.26% 0.26% 0.25% 0.25% 0.24%
Net Income 29.38% 28.62% 26.00% 28.15% 29.02% 29.52% 30.15% 30.44% 30.98% 30.77% 30.50% 30.25% 30.00%
Oracle Corporation
Common Size Balance Sheet
Fiscal Years Ending May 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash Only 39.30% 46.42% 56.81% 50.56% 51.55% 35.58% 38.68% 35.19% 41.35% 46.50% 50.57% 54.88% 59.40%
Total Short Term Investments 47.35% 55.00% 85.42% 86.91% 86.24% 83.78% 81.92% 79.80% 78.33% 77.35% 75.97% 74.77% 73.55%
Accounts Receivables, Gross 17.07% 16.70% 15.44% 16.40% 16.18% 16.01% 16.20% 16.13% 16.11% 16.15% 16.13% 16.13% 16.14%
Less: Bad Debt/Doubtful Accounts ‐0.80% ‐0.80% ‐0.75% ‐0.78% ‐0.78% ‐0.77% ‐0.77% ‐0.77% ‐0.77% ‐0.77% ‐0.77% ‐0.77% ‐0.77%
Accounts Receivables, Net 16.27% 15.90% 14.70% 15.62% 15.41% 15.24% 15.42% 15.36% 15.34% 15.37% 15.36% 15.36% 15.36%
Other Receivables 2.22% 2.37% 2.14% 2.24% 2.25% 2.21% 2.23% 2.23% 2.22% 2.23% 2.23% 2.23% 2.23%
Inventories 0.65% 0.49% 0.82% 0.65% 0.66% 0.71% 0.67% 0.68% 0.69% 0.68% 0.68% 0.68% 0.68%
Other Current Assets 6.35% 5.58% 5.40% 5.78% 5.59% 5.59% 5.65% 5.61% 5.62% 5.63% 5.62% 5.62% 5.62%
Total Current Assets 112.14% 125.77% 165.29% 161.76% 161.69% 143.11% 144.59% 138.87% 143.55% 147.77% 150.42% 153.55% 156.85%
Property, Plant & Equipment - Gross 15.48% 16.30% 19.08% 23.30% 27.25% 30.77% 34.59% 38.40% 42.64% 47.35% 52.03% 57.04% 62.27%
Less: Accumulated Depreciation 7.27% 8.30% 9.44% 11.55% 13.86% 16.20% 18.75% 21.44% 24.48% 27.84% 31.27% 34.95% 38.81%
Net Property, Plant & Equipment 8.21% 8.00% 9.64% 11.75% 13.38% 14.57% 15.84% 16.96% 18.17% 19.51% 20.76% 22.09% 23.46%
Net Goodwill 73.54% 77.47% 89.17% 90.27% 89.14% 86.16% 83.83% 81.26% 79.37% 77.98% 76.20% 74.63% 73.04%
Net Other Intangibles 17.86% 16.03% 16.76% 18.36% 19.77% 19.48% 19.22% 18.97% 19.17% 18.84% 18.41% 18.03% 17.65%
Deferred Tax Assets 2.06% 2.19% 2.08% 2.13% 2.20% 2.29% 2.30% 2.32% 2.33% 2.28% 2.22% 2.18% 2.14%
Other Assets 6.12% 6.58% 7.18% 8.84% 8.81% 8.64% 8.08% 8.05% 7.88% 8.05% 8.13% 8.20% 8.27%
Total Assets 220.04% 236.04% 290.12% 293.10% 294.99% 274.26% 273.86% 266.42% 270.47% 274.43% 276.15% 278.68% 281.40%
Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity
ST Debt & Curr. Portion LT Debt 0.00% 3.94% 5.23% 0.00% 15.69% 5.06% 11.07% 8.65% 7.83% 7.99% 8.12% 8.27% 8.42%
Accounts Payable 1.13% 1.23% 2.11% 2.11% 2.11% 2.11% 2.11% 2.11% 2.11% 2.11% 2.11% 2.11% 2.11%
Income Tax Payable 2.75% 1.42% 1.61% 1.95% 1.76% 1.85% 1.93% 1.90% 1.95% 1.94% 1.92% 1.91% 1.89%
Deferred Revenue 19.14% 20.05% 19.98% 19.72% 19.92% 19.87% 19.84% 19.88% 19.86% 19.86% 19.87% 19.86% 19.86%
Other Current Liabilities 11.60% 10.95% 11.07% 11.21% 11.08% 11.12% 11.13% 11.11% 11.12% 11.12% 11.12% 11.12% 11.12%
Total Current Liabilities 34.62% 37.59% 40.00% 34.99% 50.55% 40.01% 46.08% 43.64% 42.87% 43.02% 43.13% 43.27% 43.40%
Long-Term Debt 49.74% 59.22% 104.53% 105.82% 90.22% 79.76% 72.43% 65.10% 66.04% 67.52% 68.57% 69.87% 71.24%
Provision for Risks & Charges 0.00% 0.96% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Deferred Tax Liabilities 0.47% 0.67% 0.99% 0.73% 0.75% 0.76% 0.78% 0.79% 0.80% 0.80% 0.79% 0.78% 0.78%
Other Liabilities 13.79% 13.63% 16.06% 19.31% 19.05% 18.96% 17.62% 17.55% 17.23% 17.57% 17.74% 17.89% 18.04%
Total Liabilities 98.62% 112.08% 161.68% 160.84% 160.58% 139.49% 136.91% 127.08% 126.94% 128.90% 130.23% 131.81% 133.45%
Common Stock Par/Carry Value 50.81% 55.07% 60.58% 66.12% 70.02% 72.26% 74.75% 76.77% 79.19% 78.88% 77.08% 75.49% 73.88%
Retained Earnings 69.54% 67.84% 69.33% 67.50% 65.59% 63.51% 62.99% 63.16% 64.71% 66.80% 68.75% 71.03% 73.43%
Other Comprehensive Income ‐0.27% ‐0.43% ‐2.61% ‐2.64% ‐2.60% ‐2.52% ‐2.45% ‐2.37% ‐2.32% ‐2.28% ‐2.23% ‐2.18% ‐2.13%
Total Shareholders' Equity 120.09% 122.48% 127.30% 130.98% 133.00% 133.24% 135.30% 137.56% 141.58% 143.40% 143.60% 144.33% 145.18%
Accumulated Minority Interest 1.34% 1.49% 1.14% 1.28% 1.41% 1.52% 1.65% 1.79% 1.94% 2.13% 2.32% 2.53% 2.76%
Total Equity 121.42% 123.96% 128.44% 132.26% 134.42% 134.77% 136.95% 139.34% 143.53% 145.52% 145.92% 146.87% 147.95%
Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 220.04% 236.04% 290.12% 293.10% 294.99% 274.26% 273.86% 266.42% 270.47% 274.43% 276.15% 278.68% 281.40%
Oracle Corporation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Estimation
Cost of Equity
Risk Free Rate 3.06% Years Incoporated Weekly
Expected Market Return 7.68% 1 1.296
Beta 1.20 2 1.197
Cost of Equity 8.60% 3 1.186
4 1.126
5 1.19
Cost of Debt Average 1.199
Pre-tax Cost of Debt 4.70%
Tax Rate 21.37%
After Tax Cost of Debt 3.70%
Capital Structure Weights Weights
Shares Outstanding 4,336
Current Price $37.30
Market Value of Equity (Millions) 161,736 78.99%
PV Operating Leases 1,052 0.51%
ST Debt 1,999 0.98%
LT Debt 39,959 19.52%
Total Enterprise 204,745 100%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital 7.57%
Beta
Oracle Corporation
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Economic Profit (EP) Valuation Models
Key Inputs:
CV Growth 2.97%
CV ROIC 26.80%
WACC 7.57%
Cost of Equity 8.60%
Fiscal Years Ending May 31, 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
DCF Model
NOPLAT 11,484 12,005 12,321 12,800 13,189 13,618 13,786 13,981 14,153 14,338
Less: Change in Invested Capital (2,211) (1,931) 785 (1,451) (1,208) (2,623) (2,557) (2,493) (2,568) (2,749)
FCF $ 9,273 $ 10,074 $ 13,107 $ 11,349 $ 11,981 $ 10,996 $ 11,229 $ 11,488 $ 11,585 $ 11,589
Continuing Value (CV) $ 277,262
Periods to Discount 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9
PV (FCF) $ 8,621 $ 8,706 $ 10,530 $ 8,476 $ 8,319 $ 7,098 $ 6,738 $ 6,409 $ 6,008 $ 143,794
Value of Operating Assets 214,699$
Add: Excess Cash 13,030
Add: Short‐term Investments 32,652
Add: Minority Interest 435
Less: Short‐term Debt 1,999
Less: Long‐term Debt 39,959
Less: PV of Operating Leases 1,052
Less: PV of ESOP 4,943
Less: Underfunded Pension Obligation 599
Value of Equity 212,265$
Shares Outstanding, millions 4,336
Intrinsic Value 48.95$
Intrinsic Value (Adjusted) 50.50$
Economic Profit
Fiscal Years Ending 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
NOPLAT 11,484 12,005 12,321 12,800 13,189 13,618 13,786 13,981 14,153 14,338
Beginning Invested Capital 37,250 39,461 41,392 40,607 42,058 43,266 45,889 48,446 50,939 53,508
ROIC 30.83% 30.42% 29.77% 31.52% 31.36% 31.48% 30.04% 28.86% 27.78% 26.80%
WACC 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57%
Economic Profit $ 8,665 $ 9,018 $ 9,189 $ 9,727 $ 10,006 $ 10,344 $ 10,313 $ 10,315 $ 10,298 $ 10,288
Continuing Value (CV) $ 223,754
Periods to discount 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9
PV (EP) $ 8,055 $ 7,794 $ 7,383 $ 7,265 $ 6,948 $ 6,677 $ 6,189 $ 5,754 $ 5,341 $ 116,044
PV of Economic Profit 177,449$
Plus: Beginning Invested Capital 37,250
Value of Operations 214,699$
Add: Excess Cash 13,030
Add: Short‐term Investments 32,652
Add: Minority Interest 435
Less: Short‐term Debt 1,999
Less: Long‐term Debt 39,959
Less: PV of Operating Leases 1,052
Less: PV of ESOP 4,943
Less: Underfunded Pension Obligation 599
Value of Equity 212,265$
Shares Outstanding, millions 4,336
Intrinsic Value 48.95$
Intrinsic Value (Adjusted) 50.50$
Oracle Corporation
Dividend Discount Model (DDM) or Fundamental P/E Valuation Model
Fiscal Years Ending May 31, 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
EPS 2.56$ 2.78$ 3.03$ 3.28$ 3.52$ 3.77$ 3.96$ 4.18$ 4.40$ 4.63$
Annual EPS Growth 13.11% 8.50% 9.09% 8.44% 7.30% 7.00% 4.94% 5.64% 5.26% 5.15%
Key Assumptions
CV growth 2.97%
CV ROE 20.66%
Cost of Equity 8.60%
Future Cash Flows
P/E Multiple (CV Year) 15.22
EPS (CV Year) 4.63$
Dividends Per Share 0.59 0.64 0.70 0.76 0.81 0.87 0.91 0.96 1.01
CV Price 70.41$
Period to Discount 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9
Discounted Cash Flows 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.54$ 0.53$ 0.51$ 0.50$ 0.48$ 33.52$
Intrinsic Value 38.24$
Intrinsic Value (Adjusted) 41.46$
Oracle CorporationRelative Valuation Models ‐ Software Competitors
EPS EPS Est. 5yrTicker Company Price 2016E 2017E P/E 15 P/E 16 EPS gr. PEG 15 PEG 16
CRM Salesforce.com $75.60 $0.73 $0.95 103.6 79.6 30.6 3.38 2.60
CDNS Cadence Design $22.29 $1.07 $1.18 20.8 18.9 10.0 2.08 1.89
VMW VMWare $58.71 $4.06 $4.22 14.5 13.9 8.8 1.65 1.59
SAP SAP SE $77.96 $3.74 $4.12 20.8 18.9 8.7 2.40 2.17
INTU Intuit Inc. $96.53 $3.43 $4.30 28.1 22.4 15.1 1.86 1.49
SYMC Symantec $19.71 $1.83 $1.99 10.8 9.9 7.9 1.36 1.25
MSFT Microsoft $52.84 $2.76 $3.11 19.1 17.0 9.1 2.10 1.86 OTEX Open Text Corp $44.93 $3.56 $3.72 12.6 12.1 4.3 2.97 2.84
Average 18.1 16.2 2.1 1.9
ORCL Oracle $37.30 $2.56 $2.78 14.6 13.4 9.27 1.6 1.4
Implied Value:
Relative P/E (EPS15) $ 46.36
Relative P/E (EPS16) 44.88$
PEG Ratio (EPS15) 48.87$
PEG Ratio (EPS16) 48.15$
Relative Valuation Models ‐ Large Cap Tech Comeptitors
EPS EPS Est. 5yrTicker Company Price 2016E 2017E P/E 15 P/E 16 EPS gr. PEG 15 PEG 16
MSFT Microsoft $52.84 $2.76 $3.11 19.1 17.0 9.1 2.10 1.86
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc. $26.21 $2.30 $2.45 11.4 10.7 9.4 1.21 1.14
GOOGL Google $717.00 $29.98 $34.21 23.9 21.0 16.4 1.46 1.28
INTC Intel Corporation $32.11 $2.23 $2.35 14.4 13.7 8.3 1.75 1.66
SAP SAP SE $77.96 $3.74 $4.12 20.8 18.92 8.7 2.40 2.17
IBM IBM $131.75 $14.93 $15.10 8.8 8.7 7.3 1.22 1.20
AAPL Apple Inc. $112.34 $9.85 $10.81 11.4 10.4 15.3 0.74 0.68 EMC EMC Corporation $25.03 $1.82 $1.98 13.8 12.6 10.5 1.32 1.21
Average 15.2 13.9 1.6 1.5
ORCL Oracle $37.30 $2.56 $2.78 14.6 13.4 9.27 1.6 1.4
Implied Value:
Relative P/E (EPS15) $ 38.79
Relative P/E (EPS16) 38.56$
PEG Ratio (EPS15) 37.60$
PEG Ratio (EPS16) 37.40$
Oracle CorporationKey Management Ratios
Fiscal Years Ending May 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Liquidity RatiosCurrent Ratio (CA/CL) 3.24 3.35 4.13 4.62 3.20 3.58 3.14 3.18 3.35 3.43 3.49 3.55 3.61 Quick Ratio (CA‐Inventories)/CL 3.22 3.33 4.11 4.60 3.19 3.56 3.12 3.17 3.33 3.42 3.47 3.53 3.60 Cash Ratio (Cash + Marketable Sec./CL) 2.50 2.70 3.56 3.93 2.73 2.98 2.62 2.64 2.79 2.88 2.93 3.00 3.06
Activity or Asset‐Management RatiosReceivables Turnover (Sales/Avg A.R. of Curr & Prev Yrs. 5.97 6.13 6.54 6.64 6.40 6.42 6.43 6.40 6.44 6.45 6.43 6.44 6.44Inventory Turnover (COGS/Avg Inv of Curr & Prev Yrs.) 33.00 30.90 27.12 23.71 27.02 26.29 25.83 26.46 26.10 26.00 26.17 26.08 26.10Total Asset Turnover (Sales/Total Assets) 0.45 0.42 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36
Financial Leverage RatiosDebt Ratio (Total Liabilities/Total Assets 44.82% 47.48% 55.73% 54.88% 54.43% 50.86% 49.99% 47.70% 46.93% 46.97% 47.16% 47.30% 47.42%Debt to Equity Ratio (Total Debt/Total Equity) 40.97% 50.95% 85.46% 80.01% 78.79% 62.93% 60.97% 52.93% 51.46% 51.89% 52.56% 53.20% 53.84%Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest Expense) 18.11 16.39 12.50 8.00 8.31 9.92 11.25 12.45 13.88 13.53 13.22 12.91 12.60
Profitability RatiosProfit Margin (NI/Sales) 29.38% 28.62% 26.00% 28.15% 29.02% 29.52% 30.15% 30.44% 30.98% 30.77% 30.50% 30.25% 30.00%Gross Profit Margin (1‐(COGS)) 82.34% 82.68% 82.16% 82.39% 82.41% 82.32% 82.38% 82.37% 82.36% 82.37% 82.36% 82.36% 82.36%Operating Margin (Operating Income/Sales) 38.82% 39.15% 37.38% 39.81% 40.84% 40.68% 41.06% 41.11% 41.49% 41.29% 41.02% 40.76% 40.52%Return on Assets (Net Income/Total Assets) 13.35% 12.13% 8.96% 9.60% 9.84% 10.77% 11.01% 11.43% 11.45% 11.21% 11.05% 10.85% 10.66%Return on Equity (Net Income/Total Equity) 24.47% 23.37% 20.42% 21.49% 21.82% 22.16% 22.28% 22.13% 21.88% 21.46% 21.24% 20.96% 20.66%
Payout Policy RatiosPayout Ratio 13.52% 19.89% 22.54% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00% 23.00%Total Payout Ratio (Div + Stock Rep./Net Income) 114.00% 109.46% 104.07% 109.56% 103.66% 99.63% 96.01% 93.08% 90.27% 89.55% 88.60% 87.78% 86.94%
Orcale CorporationSensitivity Analysis Table
50.50$ 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.601.97% 61.64 56.63 52.38 48.72 45.57 42.75 40.28 38.09 36.122.22% 64.01 58.54 53.93 49.99 46.63 43.64 41.03 38.72 36.662.47% 66.71 60.68 55.65 51.40 47.79 44.61 41.85 39.41 37.252.72% 69.81 63.11 57.59 52.97 49.08 45.67 42.73 40.16 37.88
CV Growth of NOPLAT 2.97% 73.41 65.88 59.77 54.72 50.50 46.83 43.70 40.97 38.563.22% 77.62 69.08 62.26 56.69 52.09 48.12 44.76 41.85 39.313.47% 82.63 72.81 65.11 58.92 53.87 49.56 45.94 42.82 40.123.72% 88.69 77.22 68.43 61.47 55.88 51.17 47.24 43.89 41.003.97% 96.16 82.51 72.32 64.42 58.18 52.97 48.69 45.07 41.98
50.50$ 22.80% 23.80% 24.80% 25.80% 26.80% 27.80% 29.80% 30.80% 31.80%7.17% 54.46 54.70 54.92 55.12 55.31 55.48 55.79 55.94 56.077.27% 53.20 53.43 53.64 53.84 54.02 54.19 54.49 54.62 54.757.37% 51.99 52.21 52.42 52.61 52.78 52.95 53.24 53.37 53.507.47% 50.84 51.05 51.25 51.44 51.61 51.77 52.05 52.18 52.30
WACC 7.57% 49.75 49.97 50.16 50.34 50.50 50.66 50.93 51.06 51.177.67% 48.68 48.88 49.07 49.24 49.40 49.55 49.82 49.94 50.057.77% 47.66 47.86 48.05 48.21 48.37 48.51 48.77 48.89 49.007.87% 46.69 46.89 47.06 47.23 47.38 47.52 47.77 47.88 47.997.97% 45.76 45.95 46.12 46.28 46.43 46.56 46.81 46.92 47.02
50.50$ 2.66% 2.76% 2.86% 2.96% 3.06% 3.16% 3.26% 3.36% 3.46%4.22% 59.31 58.15 57.03 55.96 54.94 53.92 52.96 52.03 51.134.34% 57.67 56.57 55.51 54.49 53.53 52.56 51.65 50.76 49.914.42% 56.62 55.56 54.54 53.56 52.63 51.69 50.81 49.95 49.134.52% 55.37 54.35 53.38 52.43 51.54 50.65 49.80 48.98 48.18
Equity Risk Premium 4.62% 54.17 53.20 52.26 51.36 50.50 49.64 48.83 48.04 47.274.72% 53.02 52.09 51.19 50.33 49.50 48.68 47.89 47.13 46.404.82% 51.92 51.03 50.17 49.34 48.55 47.75 47.00 46.26 45.564.92% 50.87 50.01 49.18 48.38 47.63 46.86 46.13 45.43 44.745.02% 49.85 49.03 48.24 47.47 46.74 46.00 45.30 44.62 43.96
50.50$ 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 11.00% 12.00%7.12% 58.25 57.73 57.18 56.60 55.98 55.32 54.62 53.88 53.097.22% 56.87 56.36 55.83 55.26 54.66 54.01 53.33 52.61 51.857.32% 55.55 55.06 54.54 53.98 53.39 52.77 52.11 51.40 50.667.42% 54.30 53.82 53.31 52.76 52.19 51.58 50.93 50.25 49.52
WACC 7.57% 52.53 52.07 51.58 51.06 50.50 49.91 49.29 48.63 47.937.62% 51.94 51.49 51.00 50.48 49.94 49.35 48.74 48.08 47.397.72% 50.84 50.39 49.92 49.41 48.88 48.31 47.71 47.07 46.407.82% 49.78 49.35 48.88 48.39 47.87 47.31 46.73 46.10 45.447.92% 48.77 48.34 47.89 47.41 46.90 46.35 45.78 45.17 44.52
Beta
CV ROIC
Risk‐Free Rate
Capex Rate
Oracle Corporation
Value Driver Estimation
Fiscal Years Ending May 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
ROIC
NOPLAT/ BEG. IC 33.31% 36.12% 32.36% 30.83% 30.42% 29.77% 31.52% 31.36% 31.48% 30.04% 28.86% 27.78% 26.80%
Economic Profit
Beg. IC x (ROIC ‐ WACC)
Beg. IC $ 33,257 $ 32,795 $ 34,505 $ 37,250 $ 39,461 $ 41,392 $ 40,607 $ 42,058 $ 43,266 $ 45,889 $ 48,446 $ 50,939 $ 53,508
ROIC 33.31% 36.12% 32.36% 30.83% 30.42% 29.77% 31.52% 31.36% 31.48% 30.04% 28.86% 27.78% 26.80%
WACC 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57% 7.57%
=Economic Profit 8,561$ 9,365$ 8,553$ 8,665$ 9,018$ 9,189$ 9,727$ 10,006$ 10,344$ 10,313$ 10,315$ 10,298$ 10,288$
FCF
NOPLAT ‐ Change in IC
NOPLAT 11,078 11,847 11,165 11,484 12,005 12,321 12,800 13,189 13,618 13,786 13,981 14,153 14,338
‐Change in IC 462 (1,710) (2,745) (2,211) (1,931) 785 (1,451) (1,208) (2,623) (2,557) (2,493) (2,568) (2,749)
=FCF 11,540$ 10,137$ 8,420$ 9,273$ 10,074$ 13,107$ 11,349$ 11,981$ 10,996$ 11,229$ 11,488$ 11,585$ 11,589$
EBITA 14,492 15,038 14,344 15,081 15,678 16,163 16,774 17,330 17,915 18,154 18,463 18,743 19,042
‐Adjusted Taxes 3,368 3,205 3,344 3,482 3,649 3,790 3,960 4,118 4,283 4,377 4,487 4,593 4,707
+Change in Deferred Taxes (46) 14 164 (115) (24) (51) (14) (23) (13) 8 5 3 3
=NOPLAT 11,078$ 11,847$ 11,165$ 11,484$ 12,005$ 12,321$ 12,800$ 13,189$ 13,618$ 13,786$ 13,981$ 14,153$ 14,338$
EBITA
Sales 37,180 38,275 38,226 37,760 38,240 39,561 40,660 41,950 42,950 43,712 44,732 45,675 46,666
‐COGS 6,567 6,628 6,820 6,648 6,726 6,994 7,166 7,396 7,578 7,708 7,889 8,056 8,230
‐SGA 8,400 8,605 8,732 8,549 8,663 8,985 9,217 9,514 9,744 9,913 10,146 10,360 10,584
‐Research and Design 4,850 5,151 5,524 5,155 5,297 5,533 5,623 5,827 5,971 6,064 6,212 6,343 6,479
‐Depreciation 546 608 712 753 940 1,107 1,215 1,372 1,518 1,657 1,816 1,977 2,147
‐Amortization of Non‐Goodwill Intangible 2,385 2,300 2,149 1,624 995 848 742 598 320 320 320 320 320
+Implied Interest of PV of Operating Lease 60 55 55 49 60 69 77 86 95 105 114 125 135
=EBITA 14,492$ 15,038$ 14,344$ 15,081$ 15,678$ 16,163$ 16,774$ 17,330$ 17,915$ 18,154$ 18,463$ 18,743$ 19,042$
Adjusted Taxes:
Income Tax Provision 2,973 2,749 2,896 2,919 3,046 3,204 3,362 3,501 3,646 3,685 3,738 3,785 3,834
+Tax Shield on Interest Expense 170 195 244 401 401 347 317 296 274 285 296 308 321
+Tax Shield on Operating Lease Interest Expense 251 252 225 270 312 351 393 434 476 520 566 615 667
‐Tax on Interest Income 51 56 75 108 110 112 111 112 113 113 114 115 115
‐Tax on Equity in Affiliates ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
‐Tax on Non‐Operating Income (24) (65) (41) ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
+Tax Shield on Non‐Operating Losses ‐ ‐ 13 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
=Adjusted Taxes 3,368$ 3,205$ 3,344$ 3,482$ 3,649$ 3,790$ 3,960$ 4,118$ 4,283$ 4,377$ 4,487$ 4,593$ 4,707$
Change in Deferred Taxes
Ending DTL Balance 173 258 380 275 287 302 317 330 344 348 353 357 362
Ending DTA Balance 766 837 795 805 841 907 936 972 999 995 995 996 998
Net Change in Ending DT (593) (579) (415) (530) (554) (605) (619) (642) (655) (647) (642) (639) (636)
Beg. DTL Balance 48 173 258 380 275 287 302 317 330 344 348 353 357
Beg. DTA Balance 595 766 837 795 805 841 907 936 972 999 995 995 996
Net Change in Beg. DT (547) (593) (579) (415) (530) (554) (605) (619) (642) (655) (647) (642) (639)
=Change in Deferred Taxes (46)$ 14$ 164$ (115)$ (24)$ (51)$ (14)$ (23)$ (13)$ 8$ 5$ 3$ 3$
Invested Capital (IC)
Operating Working Capital 7,402 8,721 9,581 8,754 8,986 6,709 7,453 7,089 8,306 9,366 10,308 11,313 12,404
+Net PPE 3,053 3,061 3,686 4,436 5,118 5,763 6,441 7,113 7,803 8,529 9,288 10,091 10,948
+Other LT Operating Assets 10,094 9,835 10,204 11,533 12,387 12,770 12,935 13,364 13,848 14,189 14,521 14,858 15,216
+Other Operating Liabilitie 12,246 12,889 13,779 14,738 14,901 15,365 15,230 15,701 15,932 16,362 16,822 17,245 17,688
=Invested Capita 32,795$ 34,505$ 37,250$ 39,461$ 41,392$ 40,607$ 42,058$ 43,266$ 45,889$ 48,446$ 50,939$ 53,508$ 56,256$
Operating Working Capital
Current Operating Assets
Normal Cash 5,845 7,108 8,686 7,636 7,885 5,630 6,291 5,905 7,103 8,131 9,048 10,027 11,088
Accounts Receivable (Net) 6,049 6,087 5,618 5,899 5,892 6,030 6,272 6,443 6,589 6,720 6,870 7,015 7,170
Inventory 240 189 314 247 251 281 274 285 295 297 305 312 318
Total Operating Current Assets 12,134 13,384 14,618 13,782 14,027 11,941 12,837 12,633 13,988 15,148 16,223 17,354 18,576
Current Operating Liabilities
Accounts Payable 419 471 806 796 806 834 857 885 906 922 943 963 984
Other Current Liabilities 4,313 4,192 4,231 4,232 4,235 4,398 4,527 4,660 4,776 4,861 4,973 5,079 5,189
Total Operating Liabilities 4,732 4,663 5,037 5,028 5,042 5,232 5,384 5,545 5,681 5,783 5,916 6,042 6,173
=Net Operating Working Capital 7,402$ 8,721$ 9,581$ 8,754$ 8,986$ 6,709$ 7,453$ 7,089$ 8,306$ 9,366$ 10,308$ 11,313$ 12,404$
=Net PPE 3,053$ 3,061$ 3,686$ 4,436$ 5,118$ 5,763$ 6,441$ 7,113$ 7,803$ 8,529$ 9,288$ 10,091$ 10,948$
Other LT Operating Assets
Net Intangible Assets (Excluding Goodwill) 6,640 6,137 6,406 6,931 7,560 7,707 7,813 7,957 8,235 8,235 8,235 8,235 8,235
Other LT Operating Assets 2,277 2,519 2,746 3,337 3,367 3,418 3,284 3,377 3,387 3,520 3,636 3,743 3,857
PV of Operating Leases 1,177 1,179 1,052 1,266 1,460 1,645 1,838 2,030 2,226 2,434 2,650 2,879 3,124
=Total LT Operating Assets 10,094$ 9,835$ 10,204$ 11,533$ 12,387$ 12,770$ 12,935$ 13,364$ 13,848$ 14,189$ 14,521$ 14,858$ 15,216$
Other LT Operating Liabilities
Deferred Revenue 7,118 7,673 7,638 7,448 7,616 7,862 8,066 8,338 8,531 8,681 8,887 9,072 9,269
Other LT Operating Liabilities 5,128 5,216 6,141 7,290 7,285 7,502 7,163 7,362 7,401 7,681 7,935 8,173 8,419
=Total LT Operating Liabilities 12,246$ 12,889$ 13,779$ 14,738$ 14,901$ 15,365$ 15,230$ 15,701$ 15,932$ 16,362$ 16,822$ 17,245$ 17,688$
Normal Cash 5,845 7,108 8,686 7,636 7,885 5,630 6,291 5,905 7,103 8,131 9,048 10,027 11,088
Excess Cash 8,768 10,661 13,030 11,454 11,827 8,445 9,437 8,858 10,655 12,196 13,572 15,041 16,633
Total Cash 14,613 17,769 21,716 19,091 19,711 14,075 15,728 14,763 17,758 20,326 22,620 25,068 27,721
VALUATION OF OPTIONS GRANTED IN ESOP
Oracle
Ticker Symbol ORCL
Current Stock Price $37.30
Risk Free Rate 3.06%
Current Dividend Yield 1.66%
Annualized St. Dev. of Stock Returns 20.82%
Average Average B‐S Value
Number Exercise Remaining Option of Options
Outstanding Options of Shares Price Life (yrs) Price Granted
Vested 223,000,000 25.53 5.07 13.56$ 3,023,814,567$
Expected to Vest 175,000,000 32.17 7.77 10.97$ 1,918,895,873$
Total 398,000,000 28.45$ 6.26 15.27$ 4,942,710,441$
Oracle Corporation
Balance Sheet
Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations (2015) Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations (2014) Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations (2013)
Operating Operating Operating
Fiscal Years Ending May 31, Leases Fiscal Years Ending Leases Fiscal Years Ending Leases
2016 330 2015 373 2014 358
2017 270 2016 304 2015 293
2018 209 2017 230 2016 230
2019 156 2018 168 2017 170
2020 107 2019 120 2018 117
Thereafter 175 Thereafter 203 Thereafter 238
Total Minimum Payments 1247 Total Minimum Payments 1398 Total Minimum Payments 1406
Less: Interest 71 Less: Interest 63 Less: Interest 84
PV of Minimum Payments 1052 PV of Minimum Payments 1179 PV of Minimum Payments 1177
Capitalization of Operating Leases Capitalization of Operating Leases Capitalization of Operating Leases
Pre‐Tax Cost of Debt 6.00% Pre‐Tax Cost of Debt 6.00% Pre‐Tax Cost of Debt 6.00%
Number Years Implied by Year 6 Payment 1.6 Number Years Implied by Year 6 Payment 1.7 Number Years Implied by Year 6 Payment 2.0
Lease PV Lease Lease PV Lease Lease PV Lease
Year Commitment Payment Year Commitment Payment Year Commitment Payment
1 330 311.3 1 373 351.9 1 358 337.7
2 270 240.3 2 304 270.6 2 293 260.8
3 209 175.5 3 230 193.1 3 230 193.1
4 156 123.6 4 168 133.1 4 170 134.7
5 107 80.0 5 120 89.7 5 117 87.4
6 & beyond 107 121.1 6 & beyond 120 140.3 6 & beyond 117 162.9
PV of Minimum Payments 1051.8 PV of Minimum Payments 1178.6 PV of Minimum Payments 1176.6
Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations (2012) Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations (2011) Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations (2010)
Operating Operating Operating
Fiscal Years Ending Leases Fiscal Years Ending Leases Fiscal Years Ending Leases
2013 406 2012 458 2011 511
2014 307 2013 341 2012 376
2015 227 2014 226 2013 257
2016 172 2015 159 2014 157
2017 129 2016 121 2015 103
Thereafter 294 Thereafter 265 Thereafter 293
Total Minimum Payments 1535 Total Minimum Payments 1570 Total Minimum Payments 1697
Less: Interest 125 Less: Interest 238 Less: Interest 214
PV of Minimum Payments 1279 PV of Minimum Payments 1322 PV of Minimum Payments 1430
Capitalization of Operating Leases Capitalization of Operating Leases Capitalization of Operating Leases
Pre‐Tax Cost of Debt 6.00% Pre‐Tax Cost of Debt 6.00% Pre‐Tax Cost of Debt 6.00%
Number Years Implied by Year 6 Payment 2.3 Number Years Implied by Year 6 Payment 2.2 Number Years Implied by Year 6 Payment 2.8
Lease PV Lease Lease PV Lease Lease PV Lease
Year Commitment Payment Year Commitment Payment Year Commitment Payment
1 406 383.0 1 458 432.1 1 511 482.1
2 307 273.2 2 341 303.5 2 376 334.6
3 227 190.6 3 226 189.8 3 257 215.8
4 172 136.2 4 159 125.9 4 157 124.4
5 129 96.4 5 121 90.4 5 103 77.0
6 & beyond 129 199.8 6 & beyond 121 180.5 6 & beyond 103 195.9
PV of Minimum Payments 1279.3 PV of Minimum Payments 1322.2 PV of Minimum Payments 1429.8
Oracle Corporation
Effects of ESOP Exercise and Share Repurchases on Common Stock Balance Sheet Account and Number of Shares Outstanding
Number of Options Outstanding (shares): 398,000,000
Average Time to Maturity (years): 6.26
Expected Annual Number of Options Exercised: 63,606,868
Current Average Strike Price: 28.45$
Cost of Equity: 8.60%
Current Stock Price: $37.30
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Increase in Shares Outstanding: 63,606,868 63,606,868 63,606,868 63,606,868 63,606,868 63,606,868 16,358,792 0 0 0
Average Strike Price: 28.45$ 28.45$ 28.45$ 28.45$ 28.45$ 28.45$ 28.45$ 28.45$ 28.45$ 28.45$
Increase in Common Stock Account: 1,809,589,826 1,809,589,826 1,809,589,826 1,809,589,826 1,809,589,826 1,809,589,826 465,401,042 ‐ ‐ ‐
Change in Treasury Stock ‐9,200,000,000 ‐8,950,000,000 ‐8,950,000,000 ‐8,950,000,000 ‐8,950,000,000 ‐8,950,000,000 ‐8,950,000,000 ‐8,950,000,000 ‐8,950,000,000 ‐8,950,000,000
Expected Price of Repurchased Shares: $37.30 40.51$ 43.99$ 47.77$ 51.88$ 56.34$ 61.18$ 66.44$ 72.15$ 78.36$
Number of Shares Repurchased: (246,648,794) (220,950,432) (203,458,345) (187,351,063) (172,518,953) (158,861,063) (146,284,435) (134,703,466) (124,039,333) (114,219,453)
Shares Outstanding (beginning of the year) 4,336,077,000 4,153,035,075 3,995,691,510 3,855,840,033 3,732,095,838 3,623,183,754 3,527,929,559 3,398,003,916 3,263,300,450 3,139,261,117
Plus: Shares Issued Through ESOP 63,606,868 63,606,868 63,606,868 63,606,868 63,606,868 63,606,868 16,358,792 0 0 0
Less: Shares Repurchased in Treasury (246,648,794) (220,950,432) (203,458,345) (187,351,063) (172,518,953) (158,861,063) (146,284,435) (134,703,466) (124,039,333) (114,219,453)
Shares Outstanding (end of the year) 4,153,035,075 3,995,691,510 3,855,840,033 3,732,095,838 3,623,183,754 3,527,929,559 3,398,003,916 3,263,300,450 3,139,261,117 3,025,041,664