technology roadmaps
DESCRIPTION
AREA Science Park & SRIC-BI: from Explorer™t o Custom Roadmapping and Action PlansTRANSCRIPT
http://www.sric-bi.com
From Explorer™ to Custom Roadmapping and Action Plans
From Explorer™ to Custom Roadmapping and Action Plans
Trieste: November 26, 2008
Robert Thomas, Ph.D.Principal
SRI Consulting Business Intelligence
1
SRI Consulting Business IntelligenceSRI Consulting Business Intelligence
StrategyExecutionIntelligence
IdeaGeneration
StrategyDevelopment
Scanning, Monitoring, and Other Intelligence Solutions
Opportunity Discovery
Scenario Planning/StrategyCommercialization
Consumer DemandTechnology and Market Assessment
CONSULTING SERVICES
Roadmapping
SYNDICATED RESEARCH PROGRAMS
Scan™Explorer
Consumer Financial DecisionsVALS™
Virtual Worlds
• Aramco• Auto Mfgs: US, Japan,
EU• Best Buy• Chevron• Consumer Products• Consumer Electronics• Eastman Chemical• ExxonMobil• Intevep• ITRI• L’Oreal• Motorola
• Microsoft
• Nalco• NRC (Canada)
• PDVSA
• SABIC• Samsung
• Statoil• Shell
• TVA
• U.S. Government• Weyerhaeuser
RepresentativeRepresentativeClientsClients
Services AddressServices AddressMarkets and TechnologyMarkets and Technology
Key services and programs
• Syndicated Research• More than 300 clients worldwide
2
• What are technology roadmaps?• How do I make one?• What would I do if I had one?• Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping• Some SRIC-BI project examples
Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation
3
What Do We Mean by a Technology Roadmap?What Do We Mean by a Technology Roadmap?
• A road map sets out the landscape• It shows us a number of different paths we
can take depending on the starting point• Too many paths for any one person or
company to take simultaneously• We must make a choice depending on where
we want to go and our objectives• The pathway we end up choosing will depend
on a number of external and internal considerations
• Considerations such as:
The analogy with an actual road map is still the best one
the enablingtechnology
the traffic
the weather
4
Where You Want to Go Will Obviously Affect the Best RouteWhere You Want to Go Will Obviously Affect the Best Route
• There may be multiple pathways to get to the same or very similar destinations
• Some pathways may be shorter or better than others• Personal, business or external considerations will affect the choice
5
Once the Route is Chosen We Need to Monitor Progress and Events to Decide if the Pathway Remains CorrectOnce the Route is Chosen We Need to Monitor Progress and Events to Decide if the Pathway Remains Correct
• Monitoring everything is neither useful or possible…
• …But monitoring progress along the route and potential events is advisable
• Knowing what to monitor and the signs to look for becomes a key capability
• Knowing……….
How to resolve conflicting signs
When a change in technology is required
What the showstoppers are!
6
Technology Roadmaps Are Not Conceptually Different from a Road Map…Technology Roadmaps Are Not Conceptually Different from a Road Map…
• Technology roadmaps should set out the landscape: the status and direction of an opportunity, an application and the associated technologies.
• Time is the major axis and a key uncertainty: roadmaps can no more predict the future than crystal balls, but they can set out the possibilities
• The industry-level roadmap shows the possible paths that individual organizations (as well as their products, services and technologies) might take in developing the opportunity
• A company pathway sets out what an organization is going to do
Product/Service
FunctionalRequirements
Technologies
Now 2 Years 5 Years
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Pathway Milestone
• Milestones help plot the pathway and are used to measure progress
7
…In Reality, Roadmaps Can Take Many Different Forms…In Reality, Roadmaps Can Take Many Different Forms
• Some of the most well-known technology roadmaps are the result of widespread industry consensus
• The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors sets out major device-level functional requirements, the technology options and roadblocks
• The ITRS is designed to keep Moore’s law on track and is not geared to specific user applications and markets
• These types of roadmaps are particularly designed with milestone technology planning in mind.
TechnologyTime
Functionalityor metric
Unknown solutions: roadblocksSource: ITRS
8
At SRIC-BI, We Focus on What We Call Strategic Technology RoadmapsAt SRIC-BI, We Focus on What We Call Strategic Technology Roadmaps
• We mean that the roadmap is more than just about technology
• The roadmap must outline the products and services, within the opportunity, that businesses or consumers would actually buy
• It must relate product and services to functional requirements and/or technologies
• It must describe key business considerations that help us decide what is the right pathway
The word “strategic” is frequently used: what do we mean by it here?
Industry-Level Roadmap DevelopmentIndustry-Level Roadmap Development
Products/Services
Features/Functions
Technologies
BusinessConsiderations
Now 2 Years 5 Years
Need MarketCompetition
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Now 2 Years 5 Years
Need MarketCompetitionNeed MarketCompetition
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
9
How To Make a Technology Roadmap: First Create a Profile of the OpportunityHow To Make a Technology Roadmap: First Create a Profile of the Opportunity
• First and foremost, creating a technology roadmap requires industry research to describe the opportunity:
— What is market need and the likely evolution of products and services?— What are the enabling technologies, and how might they evolve?— What are the critical success factors and other business considerations?— What are the key uncertainties?
• In project work, SRIC-BI typically uses a standard profile template• Where possible, industry interviews should help gauge the product/service
evolution and technology hurdles.
OPPORTUNITY DESCRIPTION
• Need• Products/services• Markets• Value chain
Business Attractiveness• Potential revenue • Profitability• Competition• Regulations• Entry barriers• R&D requirements• Risk
Key Success Factors• Business model• Alliances/partners• Level of service required• Technology• Channels• Manufacturing• Marketing
ANALYSIS
10
From Profile to Technology RoadmapFrom Profile to Technology Roadmap
• The various elements of the profile become the major inputs to the roadmap• In reality, creating the roadmap may require further research about product,
market and technology progression and timing• Creating a timeline helps ensure products do not occur before the enabling
technologies are ready!!!
Opportunity Profile
Technologies &Business Considerations
Technologies &Business Considerations
Products/Services& Functions
Industry-Level Roadmap DevelopmentIndustry-Level Roadmap Development
Products/Services
Features/Functions
Technologies
BusinessConsiderations
Now 2 Years 5 Years
Need MarketCompetition
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Now 2 Years 5 Years
Need MarketCompetitionNeed MarketCompetition
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Products/ Services 1
A B C
Products/ Services 1
A B C
Products/ Services 2Products/ Services 2Products/Services
A B C
Technologies1..…..2..…..3..….
Necessary Features/Functions1..…….2.……..3. ….
BusinessConsiderations1..…..2..…..3. ….
11
Example Industry-Level RoadmapExample Industry-Level Roadmap
• Roadmap for a Japanese multinational IT company in the area of Integrated Enterprise Information Systems
• Accompanying tables describe the products, services, functions, technologies and business considerations
B103
B1
3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNowBusiness
Considerations
Products/Services
Function
Technologies
B5B2
B6
B10 B17 B75B71 B74
B30B31
B32 B40B33
B41B34B35
B28
B42
B29
B44
B105
B19
B23
B27
B26B25
1 YrB3B4
B45B117
B36
B37
B38B39
B7B8
B50 B54B51
B52 B56 B57
B53 B55
B58B60
B14B61
B67
B68
B18B83
B84B93
B22B94
B95
B100
B114B115
B116B112B113
B108B110
B111 B118
B47B48B49
B11B9
B59 B63
B64
B66
B62
B72
B69
B70
B87B86B85
B90B89
B88
B91
B92 B97B96
B21
B101
B104B106
B16B77
B15B12
B80B79
B20 B99
B82
N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-
Industry Roadmap
12
From Industry Roadmap to Company PathwayFrom Industry Roadmap to Company Pathway
• First and foremost, industry roadmaps set out multiple pathways and options• Just like a travel road map, they make us confront the decisions that need to be taken to move
forward: to get from A to B• When creating a company-specific roadmap or pathway, the business considerations set out
what we need to consider to make the decision• Business consideration examples might include:
— A missing core competence— A market uncertainty— A competitive threat or critical success factor
• The company pathway and milestones chart the company’s course
• Signposts are set up to make sure we are on track and don’t need to change course
• Programs like SRIC-BI’s Explorer can help with signpost monitoring
Pathway
Milestone
Yes
This way
No
Signpost
Now 2 Years 5 Years
Product/Service
FunctionalRequirements
Technologies
BusinessConsiderations
Need MarketCompetition
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Yes
This way
No
Yes
This way
No
Company Roadmap (Pathway)
13
Roadmap Development RecapRoadmap Development Recap
B103
B1
3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNowBusiness
Considerations
Products/Services
Function
Technologies
B5B2
B6
B10 B17 B75B71 B74
B30B31
B32 B40B33
B41B34B35
B28
B42
B29
B44
B105
B19
B23
B27
B26B25
1 YrB3B4
B45B117
B36
B37
B38B39
B7B8
B50 B54B51
B52 B56 B57
B53 B55
B58B60
B14B61
B67
B68
B18B83
B84B93
B22B94
B95
B100
B114B115
B116B112B113
B108B110
B111 B118
B47B48B49
B11B9
B59 B63
B64
B66
B62
B72
B69
B70
B87B86B85
B90B89
B88
B91
B92 B97B96
B21
B101
B104B106
B16B77
B15B12
B80B79
B20 B99
B82
N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-
Industry Roadmap
Business Considerations
(Signposts)
B103
B1
3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNow
Products/Services
Function
Technologies
B5B2
B6
B10 B17 B75B71 B74
B30B31
B32 B40B33
B41B34B35
B28
B42
B29
B44
B105
B19
B23
B27
B26B25
1 YrB3B4
B45B117
B36
B37
B38B39
B7B8
B50 B54B51
B52 B56 B57
B53 B55
B58B60
B14B61
B67
B68
B18B83
B84B93
B22B94
B95
B100
B114B115
B116B112B113
B108B110
B111 B118
B47B48B49
B11B9
B59 B63
B64
B66
B62
B72
B69
B70
B87B86B85
B90B89
B88
B91
B92 B97B96
B21
B101
B104B106
B16B77
B15B12
B80B79
B20 B99
B82
N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-
B200
Company Path
Business Considerations
(Signposts)
B103
B1
3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNow
Products/Services
Function
Technologies
B5B2
B6
B10 B17 B75B71 B74
B30B31
B32 B40B33
B41B34B35
B28
B42
B29
B44
B105
B19
B23
B27
B26B25
1 YrB3B4
B45B117
B36
B37
B38B39
B7B8
B50 B54B51
B52 B56 B57
B53 B55
B58B60
B14B61
B67
B68
B18B83
B84B93
B22B94
B95
B100
B114B115
B116B112B113
B108B110
B111 B118
B47B48B49
B11B9
B59 B63
B64
B66
B62
B72
B69
B70
B87B86B85
B90B89
B88
B91
B92 B97B96
B21
B101
B104B106
B16B77
B15B12
B80B79
B20 B99
B82
N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-
B200
Company Path
Project
Example
Industry Roadmaps• Set out key business considerations,
products/services, functions, and technologies for a potential opportunity for commercialization
• Provide a basis for selected strategy (path)
Company Path• Selected strategy elements--business
considerations, products/services, functions, and technologies over time
• Describes important business considerations and products/services, etc. to be created
• Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored
14
Now I Have a Roadmap, What Do I Do With it?Now I Have a Roadmap, What Do I Do With it?
• Company roadmaps are only a description of the organization’s path; to be useful they must lead to action
• Describing, selecting and carrying out the action steps is more challenging than charting a path, but ultimately that is where the value lies
• A road map analogy again:— A road map helps you chart your journey— An action plan sets out:
– Checking the weather before you start– Filling up the car with gas– Putting the snow tires on– Not forgetting to bring: the map, the children, the dog………
— Some actions may be more of a priority than others!
15
Action Roadmaps are Essential (Plans Without Actions Have No Value)Action Roadmaps are Essential (Plans Without Actions Have No Value)
• Action roadmaps display and describe the basic actions required to execute the pathway (strategy).
• Priority (short term) actions are highlighted.• Key monitoring elements and signposts are described
B2
Products/Services
Functions/ Technologies & Other Capabilities
BusinessConsiderations(signposts)
Now 5 Years 10 Years3 Years1 Years
B1B3
B4
P3P1P5
T4
P2
T6T7
P4
T5T3
T2T1
Action Roadmap
Continuous monitoring or improvementLeads to next generationContinuous monitoring or improvementContinuous monitoring or improvementLeads to next generationLeads to next generation
Priority ActionsPriority Actions
B1: Verify need and initial targetB2: Monitor key threatsP1: Design and bundle initial product/service P2: Test customer acceptance
Example
Pathway
Milestone
Yes
This way
No Signpost
Now 2 Years 5 Years
Product/Service
FunctionalRequirements
Technologies
BusinessConsiderations
Need MarketCompetition
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Yes
This way
No
Yes
This way
No
Company Roadmap
PathwayPathway
MilestoneMilestone
Yes
This way
No SignpostYes
This way
No Signpost
Now 2 Years 5 Years
Product/Service
FunctionalRequirements
Technologies
BusinessConsiderations
Need MarketCompetition
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Yes
This way
No
Yes
This way
No
Now 2 Years 5 Years
Product/Service
FunctionalRequirements
Technologies
BusinessConsiderations
Need MarketCompetitionNeed MarketCompetition
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Yes
This way
No
Yes
This way
No
Company Roadmap
16
Roadmapping Uses: A Focus on Business Strategy and Product/Service DevelopmentRoadmapping Uses: A Focus on Business Strategy and Product/Service Development
• The ultimate aim of developing roadmaps and action plans will vary by company and project, but two obvious different cases exist:
1. Using the roadmap principally for business strategy, entry options and product/service development
2. Using the roadmap for developing a technology strategy or portfolio
• In the first case, the potential product/service pathways are critical, as is a close examination of the business considerations
— Business considerations will capture threats from competition and key business challenges, organizational issues, or consumer acceptance
— Actions might be: the need to test consumer acceptance of products; alliance or acquisition analysis; the need to develop internal capabilities such as a service organization
— In such cases as this, the technologies may be readily acquired, or the necessary technology alliances can be easily formed
17
Roadmapping Uses: Selecting a Technology PortfolioRoadmapping Uses: Selecting a Technology Portfolio
• For technology-oriented organizations (government labs, corporate research departments), the focus for roadmaps and actions may be on developing future technology concepts and other capabilities
• Multiple product/service roadmaps can serve as the basis for developing a technology portfolio
• Actions may relate to filling key capabilities, licensing and R&D partnering
Products &Services
Techs &
Other capabilities
Product a
Product b
Product c
Product d
Product e
Product f
Service a
Service b
Service c
Service d
Service e
Service f
Technology a X X X
Technology b X X
Technology c X X X X X X X
Technology e X X X X X X
Capability 1 X X
Capability 2 X X X X X X X
Capability 3 X X X X X X
Capability 4 X X X X X X X
Industry Level Roadmap 1
Products/Services
Features/Functions
Technologies
Now 5 Years 10 Years
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system
Products/Services
Features/Functions
Technologies
Now 5 Years 10 Years
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system
Industry Level Roadmap 2
Products/Services
Features/Functions
Technologies
Now 5 Years 10 Years
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system
Products/Services
Features/Functions
Technologies
Now 5 Years 10 Years
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system
Industry Level Roadmap 3
Products/Services
Features/Functions
Technologies
Now 5 Years 10 Years
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system
Products/Services
Features/Functions
Technologies
Now 5 Years 10 Years
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system
Industry Level Roadmap 4
Products/Services
Features/Functions
Technologies
Now 5 Years 10 Years
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system
Products/Services
Features/Functions
Technologies
Now 5 Years 10 Years
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system
Industry Level Roadmap 5
Products/Services
Features/Functions
Technologies
Now 5 Years 10 Years
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system
Products/Services
Features/Functions
Technologies
Now 5 Years 10 Years
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system
Industry Level Roadmap 6
Products/Services
Features/Functions
Technologies
Now 5 Years 10 Years
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system
Products/Services
Features/Functions
Technologies
Now 5 Years 10 Years
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system
Multiple Product/Service RoadmapsTechnology Concept Analysis and Selection
18
Roadmap Development RecapRoadmap Development Recap
B103
B1
3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNowBusiness
Considerations
Products/Services
Function
Technologies
B5B2
B6
B10 B17 B75B71 B74
B30B31
B32 B40B33
B41B34B35
B28
B42
B29
B44
B105
B19
B23
B27
B26B25
1 YrB3B4
B45B117
B36
B37
B38B39
B7B8
B50 B54B51
B52 B56 B57
B53 B55
B58B60
B14B61
B67
B68
B18B83
B84B93
B22B94
B95
B100
B114B115
B116B112B113
B108B110
B111 B118
B47B48B49
B11B9
B59 B63
B64
B66
B62
B72
B69
B70
B87B86B85
B90B89
B88
B91
B92 B97B96
B21
B101
B104B106
B16B77
B15B12
B80B79
B20 B99
B82
N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-
Industry Roadmap
Business Considerations
(Signposts)
B103
B1
3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNow
Products/Services
Function
Technologies
B5B2
B6
B10 B17 B75B71 B74
B30B31
B32 B40B33
B41B34B35
B28
B42
B29
B44
B105
B19
B23
B27
B26B25
1 YrB3B4
B45B117
B36
B37
B38B39
B7B8
B50 B54B51
B52 B56 B57
B53 B55
B58B60
B14B61
B67
B68
B18B83
B84B93
B22B94
B95
B100
B114B115
B116B112B113
B108B110
B111 B118
B47B48B49
B11B9
B59 B63
B64
B66
B62
B72
B69
B70
B87B86B85
B90B89
B88
B91
B92 B97B96
B21
B101
B104B106
B16B77
B15B12
B80B79
B20 B99
B82
N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-
B200
Company Path
Business Considerations
(Signposts)
B103
B1
3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNow
Products/Services
Function
Technologies
B5B2
B6
B10 B17 B75B71 B74
B30B31
B32 B40B33
B41B34B35
B28
B42
B29
B44
B105
B19
B23
B27
B26B25
1 YrB3B4
B45B117
B36
B37
B38B39
B7B8
B50 B54B51
B52 B56 B57
B53 B55
B58B60
B14B61
B67
B68
B18B83
B84B93
B22B94
B95
B100
B114B115
B116B112B113
B108B110
B111 B118
B47B48B49
B11B9
B59 B63
B64
B66
B62
B72
B69
B70
B87B86B85
B90B89
B88
B91
B92 B97B96
B21
B101
B104B106
B16B77
B15B12
B80B79
B20 B99
B82
N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-
B200
Company Path
Example
Industry Roadmaps• Set out key business considerations,
products/services, functions, and technologies for a potential opportunity for commercialization
• Provide a basis for selected strategy (path)
Company Path• Selected strategy elements--business
considerations, products/services, functions, and technologies over time
• Describes important business considerations and products/services, etc. to be created
• Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored
Actions• Displays and describes required actions to
execute company pathways• Highlights priority actions
3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNow 1 Yr
BusinessConsiderations
(Signposts)
Products/Services
Functions/Technologies
Actions
Z13
Z8
Z3
Z11
Z12
Z2
Z15Z14
Z1
Z16
Z17
Z10Z9
Z18
Z7
Z5
Z6
Z4
19
• What are technology roadmaps?• How do I make one?• What would I do if I had one?• Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping• Some project examples from SRIC-BI
Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation
20
What Does a Custom Roadmap Mean in the Context of Explorer?What Does a Custom Roadmap Mean in the Context of Explorer?
• Explorer is a syndicated program, with a wide and diverse client base• The Explorer charts of technology commercialization are designed for
breadth— Explorer highlights the commercial implications, from technology
development, for many products, industries and markets— Technology maps often combine many different enabling technologies
• In contrast, a custom roadmap is created with an individual organization in mind
• However, Explorer’s research and technology maps are a good basis from which to develop a customized roadmap
— To aid in developing the opportunity profiles— To identify critical enabling technologies and inhibitors— To assist with player profiling that is often an important feature of such
projects— To identify important areas to monitor
21
SRIC-BI’s Explorer Program is a Valuable Source To Create the Initial Opportunity ProfilesSRIC-BI’s Explorer Program is a Valuable Source To Create the Initial Opportunity Profiles
MonitoringSystem
Customized Strategic Technology Roadmaps
2003-4
PDP GrowthRate from
2001 to 2002
Triode H igh-Definition Full-Color Prototype
In 2002
Delay to 2004
Low (high cost)
High (low cost)
PDP GrowthRate from
2003 to 2004
Low or Slows
High or Grows
2001-2 2003-4
PDP GrowthRate from
2001 to 2002
Triode H igh-Definition Full-Color Prototype
In 2002
Delay to 2004
Triode H igh-Definition Full-Color Prototype
In 2002
Delay to 2004
Low (high cost)
High (low cost)
PDP GrowthRate from
2003 to 2004
Low or Slows
High or Grows
2001-2
Signposts
Product/Service
FunctionalRequirements
Technologies
Now 2 Years 5 Years
BusinessConsiderations
Need MarketCompetition
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Yes
This way
No
Yes
This way
No
OpportunityProfiles
Milestones
Explorer’s Charts of Commercialization
Opportunities: ApplicationsOpportunities: Applications
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Energy-SavingSystems
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Self-Repair
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Vibration
Control
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Haptic
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Orthopedics and
Prosthetics
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Self-Powered
Monitoring Devices
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Smart and
Adaptive
Structures
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Smart Structures
Aerospace and
Defense
Automotive
Medical
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Engine, Drive-Train and
Suspension Components
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Smart M irrors
Quic k Tim e™ and a dec ompress or
are needed to s ee th is p ic ture.
Self-Repairing Coatings
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Vibration and
Noise Control
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
NDTE
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Vibration Control
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Actuators
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Structural Monitoring
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Minimally
Invasive
Surgery
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Drug Delivery
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Medical Analysis
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Valves
and Seals
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Earthquake Dampers
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Noise Control
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Motors and Actuators
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Light and
Heat Control
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Fasteners
Industrial, Power
and Construction
Industry Current Applications
Emerging Applications
Within 5 Years Within 10 Years
Building Blocks of the Technology
• Mobile AutonomousSwarms— Military (Smart Dust)— Industrial-Plant
Maintenance— Agriculture (Field
Analysis)— Resource Extraction
• Smart Spaces— Office Networks— Inventory Management
— Telecommunications— Transportation
(Commercial, Private)— Home Networks
(ApplianceCollaboration,Security)
• Personal Networks— Health Care (Privacy,
Remote Monitoring)— Entertainment (Virtual
Environments)
Systems
• Network Infrastructure— PAN, LAN, WAN
• Software Architecture— Discovery— Intelligent Software Agents— Context Awareness— Operating Systems— Scalability
• Standards— Network and Communication
Protocols— Application and Presentation
ProtocolsEnabling Components
• Basic Node Components— Processor— Power Source— Communication
Capability (GPSTransmitters, RFID,Sensors)
— Embedded Software
• Interface Nodes— Input Devices (Mouse,
Stylus, SpeechRecognition)
— Biometrics— Software Agents
• Work Nodes— PDAs— Home Appliances— Robots
Applications
Commercial Development Parameters
Required Resources
• Partnering Capabilities
• IT Expertise
• Spectrum Licenses
• Funding for Researchand Development
Regulatory Factors
• Privacy
• Security
• LiabilityCompeting Technologies
• Current Computing Environment
• Human Tools
General Constraints
• Value Capture
• Standards and Interoperability
• Storage and Scalability
• Cost
Demand Factors
• Military and Government
• Industrial/Commercial
• Consumer
• Interfaces (Human-Machine, Machine toMachine, Machine to Environment)
• Wireless Networks (Cellular, Bluetooth,Wi-Fi)
• Miniature Power Sources
• Ubiquitous Embedded Processing
• Software Architecture
• Identification of Nodes
54
32
1
Synergistic Technologies
Smart Spaces
PrivacyHuman-
ComputerInterfaces
Security
IntelligentAgents
SoftwareProductivity
Standards andInteroperability
ContextAwareness
BusinessModels
Medium
High
Low
Impact
MediumLow High
Uncertainty
WirelessNetworks
Issues and Uncertainties
Commercial Development Parameters
Required Resources
• Partnering Capabilities
• IT Expertise
• Spectrum Licenses
• Funding for Researchand Development
Regulatory Factors
• Privacy
• Security
• LiabilityCompeting Technologies
• Current Computing Environment
• Human Tools
General Constraints
• Value Capture
• Standards and Interoperability
• Storage and Scalability
• Cost
Demand Factors
• Military and Government
• Industrial/Commercial
• Consumer
• Interfaces (Human-Machine, Machine toMachine, Machine to Environment)
• Wireless Networks (Cellular, Bluetooth,Wi-Fi)
• Miniature Power Sources
• Ubiquitous Embedded Processing
• Software Architecture
• Identification of Nodes
54
32
1
Synergistic Technologies
Smart Spaces
PrivacyHuman-
ComputerInterfaces
Security
IntelligentAgents
SoftwareProductivity
Standards andInteroperability
ContextAwareness
BusinessModels
Medium
High
Low
Impact
MediumLow High
Uncertainty
WirelessNetworks
Issues and Uncertainties
Implications
Implications of Commercialization
A+B+C Bioploymer-enabled food processing enhances food formulation and provides a competitive edge inthe industry.
A+C Biopolymers enhance performance of consumer and industrial products and processes.
A+C Fine control of biopolymer production through cellular synthesis leads to customizable materialfeatures, and GMOs become a key source for biopolymer production.
A+C+D Advanced medical treatments and devices emerge.
C Biopolymers gradually replace petroleum-based materials.
• Factors and Events That Will Enable Technology Commercialization
Emerging Commercial Opportunities
• Growth in GMO-Production Technology
• Application for Nanotechnologies
• High-Throughput ScreeningImprovements
• Progress of Combinatorial Methods
• Advances in Enzymatic and Cell-FreeSynthesis
• Growth in GMO-Production Technology
• Product Formulation Improved byBiopolymers
• Favorable Regulation of Functional Foodsand Nutraceuticals
• Consumer Preferences Move towardConvenience Foods and Functional andNutraceutical Foods
ANew technologies will lead
to novel biopolymers.
BBiopolymers enhance foodqualities and production.
Implications
Implications of Commercialization
A+B+C Bioploymer-enabled food processing enhances food formulation and provides a competitive edge inthe industry.
A+C Biopolymers enhance performance of consumer and industrial products and processes.
A+C Fine control of biopolymer production through cellular synthesis leads to customizable materialfeatures, and GMOs become a key source for biopolymer production.
A+C+D Advanced medical treatments and devices emerge.
C Biopolymers gradually replace petroleum-based materials.
• Factors and Events That Will Enable Technology Commercialization
Emerging Commercial Opportunities
• Growth in GMO-Production Technology
• Application for Nanotechnologies
• High-Throughput ScreeningImprovements
• Progress of Combinatorial Methods
• Advances in Enzymatic and Cell-FreeSynthesis
• Growth in GMO-Production Technology
• Product Formulation Improved byBiopolymers
• Favorable Regulation of Functional Foodsand Nutraceuticals
• Consumer Preferences Move towardConvenience Foods and Functional andNutraceutical Foods
ANew technologies will lead
to novel biopolymers.
BBiopolymers enhance foodqualities and production.
Opportunities: Business EnvironmentOpportunities: Business EnvironmentEnabling Components Applications
Defense Systems• BAE Systems• Northrop Grumman• Raytheon• United Technologies• EADS NV
Key R&D and Funding• Qinetiq• DARPA• U.S. Navy• U.S. Army• SRI International• MIT• NASA• ORNL Aircraft
• Boeing• Airbus• Bombardier• Dassault• Saab AB• Hindustan Aerospace
• Lockheed Martin• General Dynamics• Textron• Thales
Aerospace Components• Rolls-Royce• Smiths Industries• General Electric• Siemens AG• Textron
Magnetostrictives• Newlands Scientific• Etrema Products
Shape-Memory Alloys• Adaptamat• Memory Metalle• NDC• Memry Corp.• Dynalloy, Inc.• Heraeus Materials
Smart Polymers• Cornerstone• Bayer MaterialScience
Piezoelectrics• Many Suppliers
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Research and
Development
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Smart Materials and
Components
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Parts and Systems
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Aircraft, Vehicles,
and Weapons
Players
Systems
• Network Infrastructure— Cisco— Siemens
• Software Architecture— SRI International— IBM Corporation— HP Laboratories— PARC
• Standards— Bluetooth SIG— IETF— IEEE
AddedValue
Enabling Components
• Basic Node Components— Intel— Motorola— Hitachi
• Interface Nodes— Speech Works— Philips Speech Processing— Nuance
• Work Nodes— Palm— Sunbeam— Matsushita Electric
• Mobile Autonomous Swarms— Crossbow Technologies— Xybernaut
• Smart Spaces— Display Edge Technology— Symbol Technologies
— Nokia— NTT DoCoMo
• Personal Networks— Sensatex— Sony— MIT Media Lab
Applications
Players
Systems
• Network Infrastructure— Cisco— Siemens
• Software Architecture— SRI International— IBM Corporation— HP Laboratories— PARC
• Standards— Bluetooth SIG— IETF— IEEE
AddedValue
Enabling Components
• Basic Node Components— Intel— Motorola— Hitachi
• Interface Nodes— Speech Works— Philips Speech Processing— Nuance
• Work Nodes— Palm— Sunbeam— Matsushita Electric
• Mobile Autonomous Swarms— Crossbow Technologies— Xybernaut
• Smart Spaces— Display Edge Technology— Symbol Technologies
— Nokia— NTT DoCoMo
• Personal Networks— Sensatex— Sony— MIT Media Lab
Applications
22
Roadmapping Example: CIGS Solar Cells
Roadmapping Example: CIGS Solar Cells
23
• The client, a government-funded laboratory, wanted to develop its strategy for a particular type of solar cell: copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS)
• CIGS has one of the highest efficiencies of any thin-film solar cell• The aims of the project were several fold:
— Profile the industry– Understand the players, their technological approaches and business plans– Assess strengths of the patents of leading players (SRI support)– Develop an estimate of CIGS production capacity over 10 years
— Assess the major cost contributions for CIGS solar cell production— Develop an industry roadmap showing major approaches, and identify a
number of strategic choices (pathways)
Project Outline: CIGS Solar CellsProject Outline: CIGS Solar Cells
24
SRIC-BI’s Explorer Technology Map for Photovoltaics Provided a Useful Starting PointSRIC-BI’s Explorer Technology Map for Photovoltaics Provided a Useful Starting Point
CIGS = Copper Indium Gallium DiselenideSource: SRIC-BI
PHOTOVOLTAICS INDUSTRY ROADMAP: FOCUS ON CIGS
2015Category
Residential and CommercialBuilding Rooftops
Residential and CommercialBuilding Rooftops
2010
Crystalline Silicon Cells and Modules
Organic and Nano-Based
Cells and Modules
2006
Thin Film Semiconductor
Cells and Modules Off-Grid Industrial and
Remote Power Off-Grid Industrial and
Remote Power
Battery RechargersBattery Rechargers
Products/Service
Opportunities
BusinessConsiderations
(CDP)
Regional and NationalEnergy Policies
Regional and NationalEnergy PoliciesRising Energy Demand
And CostsRising Energy Demand
And Costs
StandardsStandards
Energy StorageEnergy Storage
RecyclingRecyclingPolysilicon SupplyPolysilicon Supply
Areas to Monitor
Government and StateSubsidies and IncentivesGovernment and State
Subsidies and Incentives
Renewable EnergyTechnologies
Renewable EnergyTechnologies
Rural AreaFinancing
Rural AreaFinancing
Organic Solar Cells Organic Solar Cells
Technologies
FlexibleSubstratesFlexible
SubstratesVacuumDepositionVacuum
Deposition
Nonvacuum ProcessesNonvacuum Processes
Roll-Roll ProcessingRoll-Roll ProcessingNanoparticle ManufactureNanoparticle Manufacture
Ribbon/SheetRibbon/Sheet
Crystalline Silicon WafersCrystalline Silicon Wafers
Markets
ClothingClothing
MilitaryMilitaryAutomotiveAutomotive
Off-Grid and Industrial and Remote PowerOff-Grid and Industrial and Remote Power
Grid-ConnectedGrid-Connected
Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics
Nanotechnology Nanotechnology
EncapsulantsEncapsulants
ChinaChina
Advances in Manufacturing Advances in Manufacturing
Water Pumps Water Pumps
Cathodic Protection Cathodic
Protection
Road Signs Road Signs Marine Buoys Marine Buoys
Telecommunications Telecommunications
Residential and CommercialBuilding Rooftops
Residential and CommercialBuilding Rooftops
Satellites and SpacecraftSatellites and Spacecraft
BIPVBIPV
BIPVBIPV
Rural Electrification Rural Electrification
Solar Parks Solar Parks
CPV SystemsCPV Systems
Solar Parks Solar Parks
CPV SystemsCPV Systems
Battery Rechargers Battery Rechargers Textilesand Fabrics
Textilesand Fabrics
MEMS/SensorsMEMS/Sensors
MEMS/SensorsMEMS/Sensors
Textiles and FabricsTextiles and Fabrics BIPVBIPV
Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics
ConsumerElectronicsConsumerElectronics
Thin-Film SemiconductorsThin-Film Semiconductors Dye-SensitizedSolar Cells
Dye-SensitizedSolar Cells
PolymerSolar CellsPolymer
Solar Cells
QDSolar Cells
QDSolar CellsPolymer Transparent
ElectrodesPolymer Transparent
Electrodes III-V Solar Cells
III-V Solar Cells
Thin-Film x-SiThin-Film x-Si
SpaceSpace
Thermo-PVThermo-PV
Semiconductor IndustrySemiconductor Industry
Remote PowerRemote Power
• CIGS is a thin-film solar cell
• The technology implicates a number of enabling technologies
– Vacuum deposition– Low cost nanoparticle synthesis and
wet chemical deposition– Roll-to-roll processing– Rigid and flexible substrates– Encapsulation
25
Additional Research Created a More In-Depth Profile and Then Client-Focused Industry RoadmapAdditional Research Created a More In-Depth Profile and Then Client-Focused Industry Roadmap
• The industry roadmaps contains the major approaches• It forms the basis for selecting a pathway
26
Profiling is a Major Input to the Roadmap: In This Case it Also Covered Market Development and CostingProfiling is a Major Input to the Roadmap: In This Case it Also Covered Market Development and Costing
27
From the Industry-Level Roadmap, Different Pathways Were DevelopedFrom the Industry-Level Roadmap, Different Pathways Were Developed
28
Further Research Was Undertaken to Help the Selection of Strategic OptionsFurther Research Was Undertaken to Help the Selection of Strategic Options
• In this project, each of the strategic options, or pathway options, was accompanied by the following:
— A description of the strategic focus
— Associated risk profile — Short and medium term R&D
goals — Potential alliance partners— Areas to monitor
29
Roadmapping Example: Waste Heat Recovery
Roadmapping Example: Waste Heat Recovery
30
• “For a typical car with an internal combustion engine, around 70%to 80% of energy produced by the engine is wasted as heat…”
• The client, an automotive company, wanted to develop an industryroadmap and strategy (pathway) for waste heat recovery (e.g. exhaust)
• The client wanted to better understand the competitive environment and state-of-the-art, and commissioned SRIC-BI to:
— Study activities and approaches to heat-recovery technologies— Understand the current industry view of the commercialization of heat-
recovery systems— Develop an industry-level roadmap that linked product development with
functional needs and enabling technologies.
Project Outline: Automotive Waste Heat RecoveryProject Outline: Automotive Waste Heat Recovery
31
• Web and Literature Review. Conducting a literature search to build up a picture of key trends, developments; players active in the technology area; identification of industry experts
• Qualitative Patent Search. Conducting a search of patents to identify technologies and players active in the area of heat recovery
• Quantitative Analysis of Papers and Patents. To provide an indication of the relative activity within each technology approach.
Patent Analysis Can Be an Input to Analyzing Players and Technology ApproachesPatent Analysis Can Be an Input to Analyzing Players and Technology Approaches
32
Creating Profiles of Key Players Helps Understand the CompetitionCreating Profiles of Key Players Helps Understand the Competition
• Player profiles can help in terms of understanding technology and market development as an input to the roadmap
33
Understanding Industry ViewpointsUnderstanding Industry Viewpoints
• Selected industry experts and companies can then be short listed for interview to gain further inputs to the roadmap development
34
35
36
Technology Roadmapping Summary Technology Roadmapping Summary
Industry-Level Roadmap DevelopmentIndustry-Level Roadmap Development
Products/Services
Features/Functions
Technologies
BusinessConsiderations
Now 2 Years 5 Years
Need MarketCompetition
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Now 2 Years 5 Years
Need MarketCompetitionNeed MarketCompetition
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Industry roadmaps set out the landscape, showing the options or paths that can be taken
Without action and innovation you won’t get anywhere!
The pathway sets out the route to be taken, and highlights the things that need to be monitored to stay on course
Pathway
Milestone
Yes
This way
No
Signpost
Now 2 Years 5 Years
Product/Service
FunctionalRequirements
Technologies
BusinessConsiderations
Need MarketCompetition
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Yes
This way
No
Yes
This way
No
Company Roadmap (Pathway)
PathwayPathway
MilestoneMilestone
Yes
This way
No
SignpostYes
This way
No
Signpost
Now 2 Years 5 Years
Product/Service
FunctionalRequirements
Technologies
BusinessConsiderations
Need MarketCompetition
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Yes
This way
No
Yes
This way
No
Now 2 Years 5 Years
Product/Service
FunctionalRequirements
Technologies
BusinessConsiderations
Need MarketCompetitionNeed MarketCompetition
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
Yes
This way
No
Yes
This way
No
Company Roadmap (Pathway)