technology scanning · term scenarios. real-time data management and analytics require evolving...

ForesightStudyonUrbanMobilityinSingapore2040

LeeKuanYewCentreforInnovativeCities

SingaporeUniversityofTechnology&Design

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TECHNOLOGY SCANNING ForesightStudyonUrbanMobilityinSingapore2040

November2016




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When it comes to our perception of technologies, we often underestimate how much a certaintechnologycanevolve inmediumto longtermperiod,suchas inadecadeor25years. Inorder todevelopamoreconcreteperspectiveofwhattechnologiescanhavethemostgame-changinginfluenceonthefuture,especiallyinthemobilitysector,wefirstneedtodeveloptherightframeofthinking.Onewaytodothisistoreflectbackonthelast25yearsandthinkofwhattechnologiesthatwetakeforgrantedtoday,thatdidnotexistin1990.Itiseye-openingtorealisethatsmartphones,dynamicmaps,socialmedia,andeventheInternethardlyexistedthen.Today,usingthesetechnologiesareanorminourroutines.Inthissection,wediscussindetailninetechnologiesthatwereidentifiedfromourexpertinterviews, focusgroupdiscussionsandanenvironmentalscanofprofessional,academic,andmassmediasources.

Theninetechnologiesdiscussedaredataanalytics,mobiletechnology(includingapplicationsforsharedmobility),connectedvehicles(V2X)andtheInternetofThings(IoT),autonomousvehicles,electricandalternative fuelvehicles,personalmobilitydevices, sharedcitycars,dronesand freightrobotics,andvirtualrealityandtelecommuting.Theintentionofthistechnologyscanningistodescribetechnologies,theircurrentstateandroleinSingapore’smobilitysystem,anddetailchallengestotheirdevelopmentandfutureexpectationsinthenext25years.Lastly,wehaveprovidedessentialreadingmaterialattheendofeachtechnologydescriptionforinterestedreaders.




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DATAANALYTICS

As we become increasingly connected, smartphones, online services, pervasive sensing, paymentsystemsandevenpersonalvehiclesproducemassiveamountsofdata.ThisdataaccumulatesandaddscomplexitytoIToperations,buttheanalysisofthisBigDatacanalsoprovideinsightsintouserneedsandbehaviourpatterns.

Thereisgrowingdemandforscalingupdataanalyticsintermsofspeedandcapacityasreal-timeinformationsourcesincrease.Dataanalyticscanhelpadvisepolicymakersandprovideclearandusableinformationonreal-timehappeningstousers.Forexample,crowdanalysisisusedtounderstandcitizenbehaviourandevaluatetheefficiencyofdifferentpublic transportationroutes (DFRC,2016).Predictive analyticsmay be used to improve asset utilisation and keep vehicles and roads in goodworking order through proactivemaintenance. For freight transport, automated fuelmanagementsystemsandvehiclelocationdatacanbeusedtoimproveoperationalefficiency.

ArtificialIntelligence(AI)isinsomewaysanextensionofdataanalytics,inwhichasystemdrawsinference froma largesetofunstructureddatathroughsomekindof“common-sense” framework,whichmaybebasedonmachinelearningthatthenexecuteswhatithasbeendesignedtodo.Examplesincluderoute-finders likeGoogleMapsto interactiverobots.AI isalsoanumbrellatermforwhenamachineisabletodowhatpreviouslyonlyhumanintelligencewasableto.

CURRENTSTATEANDROLEINSINGAPORE’SMOBILITYSYSTEMData analytics is used extensively in Singapore’s mobility system. Planners and service

operatorsusethelocationdataoftrains,buses,andtaxisaswellastravelpatternsdeterminedbytheTransit Link transaction system and the Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) system to optimise thedeployment of buses and trains. Additionally, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) is working ondeveloping systems to understand and use commuter paths to encourage the use of publictransportationinsteadofpersonalvehicles(Kwang,2015).Crowd-sourcedandreal-timedataisusedinthedevelopmentofefficientride-sharingapplications,suchasBeeLine(iDA,2015).

Singapore’s open data platform shares a variety of datasets with the public to create aparticipatory environment for people and businesses to formulate innovative ideas and solutionscontributingtotheSmartNation initiative.Thisdata includesreal-timetaxiavailability,andaveragedailytransportutilisationovertime(Data.gov.sg,2016).Thereisalsoanincreasingnumberofuniversitycourses andeducation indata analytics andbigdata analysis as it becomesmore important in theworkforce.Additionally,the“opensourcerevolution”providesaccesstothetoolsrequiredtoperformbigdatamining(Fanetal.,2012).

Mostbusinessesandorganisationsreportmediumtohighinvestmentinbigdataanalyticsandconsider it an important way to gain andmaintain competitive advantage.While aggregated dataservicesprovidinginsightsforlongertermdecisionsarewellestablished,thisisnotthecaseforshorterterm scenarios. Real-time datamanagement and analytics require evolving technology to improveimmediatedecision-making.

Locationdataiscurrentlythemostusedtypeofdata(Press,2015).Efficientandaccuratedataanalyticsunderliemosttransportationinnovationsandcontinuetoplayamajorroleinimprovementstouserexperience.




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CHALLENGESANDEXPECTATIONSFORTHEFUTUREDatamanagement is amajor challenge (SAS, 2013). Storingdata,determiningwhatdata is

usefulandorganisingthisdataisanongoingchallengeasdatagets“bigger”.Additionally,processestocombinerawdatafromdifferentsystemstogetmeaningful informationarelimited(Rosado,2014).Typically,statisticalanalysis,simulationandpredictiveanalyticsareusedtogaininsights.

Thereareethicalissuespertainingtotheincreasedrelianceonandusageofpersonaldata.Inthe wake of several high-profile hacking scandals and data leaks around the world, people areconcernedaboutbeinganalysedwithouttheirknowledgeorpermissionaswellasthesecurityoftheirdata.Someestimatethatindividuals’discomfortaboutthedetailandpersonalvalueofbigdatafromautomatedtechnologieswillslowtheiradoption(Neagle,2013).

Finally,real-timedatacompoundsthesechallenges,sincefasteralgorithmsmustbeusedandrequireanautomatedorhumandecision-maker(Davis,2015).

Asdataanalyticssystemsbecomemoresophisticatedandtheabovechallengesaremitigated,severaltypesofdatamaybeprocessedatoncetogleaninsightsfromdisparatesources.Real-timedatamanagementwillimproveanddecisionscanbemadefasterandmorejudiciously.Throughimproveddata mining and management, data can be visualised in real-time for users, government andbusinesses.

Multi-modal routeplanningwill beable to tailorpublic transportationoptions to individualneedssuchasavoidingpollutedareas,maximisingactivemobilityandminimisingtimeand/orcost.

Transportsystemswillbeabletocontinuouslylearnandusevastquantitiesofinformationtomakeimmediatedecisions,leadingtoautonomoussystemsthatincreasesafetyandpotentiallysavemillionsoflives(Goodall.etal.,2015).AndrewNg,associateprofessoratStanfordUniversity,describesAIas“thenewelectricity”whichwilltransformmanyindustriesandembeditself inmostaspectsofliving(Eckert,2016).Improveddataanalyticsserviceswillenableandworkwithnearlyallothergame-changingtechnologiesinthetransportationsystem.

EssentialReading

SAS. (2013). Big data analytics: What it is and why it matters. Retrieved fromhttp://www.sas.com/en_us/insights/analytics/big-data-analytics.html

Rosado, W. (2014). Data Detour: Analytics Will Move Transportation Forward. Retrieved fromhttp://www.wired.com/insights/2014/07/data-detour-analytics-will-move-transportation-forward/




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MOBILETECHNOLOGY(INCLUDINGAPPLICATIONSFORSHAREDMOBILITY)Singaporehasthehighestlevelsofsmartphonepenetrationglobally:exceeding100%,andwithatleast9outof10citizenshavingreadyaccesstoasmartphone(Telecomasia,2016),(DeloitteSoutheastAsia,2015). This creates a huge demand for content and provides a platform formany types ofmobileapplications. Information iseasilydisseminated inrealtimeandresponsesare immediate.Appscanchange users’ behaviours and modes of interacting with the world, becoming an interface forsocialising,shopping,commutingandotheraspectsoflife.

Peoplearechangingthewaytheytravelduetotransportation-relatedappsandtechnologyunderlyingmobilepaymentsormPayments.Mobilewalletsandmobilebankingarecommon,allowinguserstoinstantlyaccessfinancesandusetheirsmartphonestomakepayments.Inadditiontobankingapps,nearfieldcommunication(NFC),ashortrangestandardwhichenablestwoelectronicdevicesincloserangetocommunicatewitheachother,iscommonlyusedinticketingandpaymentsystems.Suchmobile payment technology has enabled convenient and quick payments. Figure 1 shows NFCcommunication to pay fare through mobile. On-demand transport services like Uber have takenadvantageofthis,andbike-sharingstationsoftenusesuchappstoidentifyandallowuserstopay.

Figure1.Mobilepayments.(source:IBTimesUK)

CURRENTSTATEANDROLEINSINGAPORE’SMOBILITYSYSTEM Aroundtheworld,on-demandsharedrideservicesaregainingpopularity.AppslikeUber,GrabandDidiwhichconnectpassengersanddriversarenowubiquitous,andseveralcontinuouslyinvestintechnologytocompete(Russell,2016).

Singaporehasseveralexamplesofsharedmobilitywhichusemobiletechnologies.Beelineisanappthatharnessescrowd-sourceddatatoprovidedirectshuttlebusesbasedondemand,andasteptowardsasharedmobilitysystem.Additionally,CourierNetworkServices(CNS), inwhichindividualsusepersonalvehicles(suchascars,scootersandbikes)tomakeon-demanddeliveries,haveemerged.AppssuchasGoGoVanandRocketUncleconnectcustomerstodriversforfreighttransport.Finally,carpoolingapps(likeRYDE)aimtoeasecitycongestionandadriver’sfinancialburdenbyfillingemptyseats.

Inaddition,mobileapplicationscollectdatafromavarietyofsensorsthataddtothescopeofbigdataanalyticsandprovidereal-timeinformation.Forexample,theyhavebeenusedasaninterfaceforlow-definitionmobileairqualitysensorstoalertasthmaticcommutersoflocationstoavoid(Metz,2014).Anotherapplicationiscrowdmanagementandcontrolusingbuilt-insensors.




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Mobileappsarealsocommonlyusedtoplantripsusingpublictransportation,ortoprovidewalkingordrivingdirectionsthatoptimiseforreal-timetrafficconditions.Toreducecongestion,somerouteplanningappsusegamificationtoinfluencecommuterbehaviour(Shaheenetal.,2015).Insomeways,theentertainmentvalueofothermobileappsencouragespublictransportationusebylesseningirritationwithwaittimes,particularlyifuserscanpinpointexactlywhentheirtransportissupposedtoarriveusingreal-timeinformation.InSingapore,agovernmentproducedapp,myTransport.sg,includesjourney planning, bus arrival times and a “snap and send” feature to send instant feedback to thegovernment regardingmaintenance issues.Additionally,NFC-enabledEZlinkorotherContactlesse-Purse Application (CEPAS) approved cards are used for all public transportation journeys, and thetechnology is now starting to be integrated intomobile devices to further ease the use of publictransport.

CHALLENGESANDEXPECTATIONSFORTHEFUTUREExpertswespoketocitedculturalshiftsinEuropeandtheUnitedStatestowardson-demand

travelandnotedfallingratesofdriver’s licenseregistrations.Thesedevelopments,shouldtheytakerootinSingapore,arelikelytoencouragepeopletoadoptamorecar-litelifestyle.Movingforwardinto2040,wecanexpectincreasinglyseamlessmatchingofsupplyanddemandforbothpassengertripsandgoodsdeliveries.

Sharedmobilityisenabledbymobileapplications,whetherit’ssharingcars,bikes,scooters,orshuttlebuses.Mobilityappsmayalsobeabletocollectandusedatasuchasairquality,weatherorcrowds to determine the optimal time andmethod for travel depending on users’ preferences. Inaddition,mobiletechnologiesmakemulti-modaltransporteasier.Somerouteplanningappsincludemulti-modal options, though there is currently no dedicated app to pay for an entire trip utilisingmultiplemodesbecauseitmaybeprohibitivelyexpensivetoupgradeandunifypaymentmethodsforallmodesoftransportation(forinstance,throughasmartphoneticket)(Barry,2014).Futuremobilityappsshouldbeabletohandleacombinationofwalking,personalmobilitydevices,ridesharing,andpublictransportation.Singaporehasauniqueopportunitytointegrateseveralmodesoftransportationsincethemaintransportationinfrastructureisnotsharedbetweenmultipleagencies.

Mobile technology continues to face challenges in security and privacy. Asmobile bankingbecomesmore popular andmobile apps collectmassive amounts of personal information,mobiledevicesandtheirdataaresubjecttointerceptionortheft.Additionally,hackerscanaccessaphone’ssensors,microphoneandlocationdataremotely,andsomemobiledeviceshavepaymentcapabilitiesthatcanbeaccessedaswell(Veracode,2011).

The uptake of mobile technology has already transformed mobility systems and newdevelopments can build on the prevalence of smartphones. They will continue to be an interfacebetweenusersandtheworldaroundthemforsometime,butsomepredictthattheformfactorformobile technology could be entirely different, transitioning to wearable technology or mobiletechnologyusedmainlyforsupportingvirtualandaugmentedrealityinstead(Rettinger,2016).

EssentialReading

Shaheen,S.,Chan,N.,Bansal,A.,&Cohen,A.(2015).SharedMobility:Asustainability&technologiesworkshop:TransportationSustainabilityResearchCenter,UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley.




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CONNECTEDVEHICLES(V2X)ANDTHEINTERNETOFTHINGSConnectedvehiclesusewirelesstechnologytocommunicatewithinfrastructure(V2I),othervehicles(V2V) as shown in Figure 2, or other objects such as pedestrians or personal devices (V2X). Theconnectionmaybethroughwi-fiorotherdedicatedshort-rangecommunication(DSRC)technology,orthroughcellulartelematics.

VehiclesthatcommunicatethroughcellulartelematicsarepartoftheInternetofThings(IoT),avastnetworkofsmartconnectedobjectsrangingfrominternet-enabledhomethermostatstorunningshoes. IoT objects use sensors to gather information and communicatewith other objects,mobiledevicesorthecloud(Carter,2016).IoTalsoincludeswearables,suchashealthmonitoringwristbandslike the FitBit,which aim to influence people’smobility choices, or smart textiles like theNavigateJacket,whichtapsthewearerontheshouldertoindicatealeftorrightturn(Entis,2015).

Figure2.V2Villustration(source:GM)

CURRENTSTATEANDROLEINSINGAPORE’SMOBILITYSYSTEMGovernmentsandcompaniesaroundtheworldareinvestingheavilyintheInternetofThings

(IoT).TheyarealsotryingtouseopenplatformsthatallowindividualstocreatetheirowninteroperablesystemofIoTtechnologies,suchasGoogle’sOpenWebofThings(Hsu,2015).IBMisinvesting3billiondollars over the next four years in its Internet of Things Foundation. However, there are differentstandardsbeingdevelopedbyseveralconsortiaintheIoTspace,whichmustbecarefullymanagedtoensuresufficientsecurityacrossproducts(M.Anderson,2014a).

Inthemobilitysector,V2Vpromisesimprovedsafetyandefficiency.TheUSANationalHighwayTraffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced in 2014 that they would begin working on aregulatory proposal that would require V2V devices in all new vehicles (NHTSA, 2014). The USDepartmentofTransportationhasbeentestingconnectedvehiclesusingDRSCtechnologywithafocusonV2Vcommunicationsforsafety,suchasintersectionmovementassistandV2Isafetyapplicationssuch as red lightwarnings aswell as real-time data capture andmanagement. From this, dynamicmobilityapplicationsareexpectedtoarise(Jinetal.,2015).

ADSRCsystemboastsfastnetworkacquisition,lowlatency,highreliability,andinteroperabilityevenathighvehiclespeedsandunderextremeweatherconditions.ConnectedVehicleDSRCmayalsoactasamoving-sensornetworkandaddressupto82%ofcrashtypesforunimpaireddrivers.However,DSRCrequiressignificantbackendsupport.AnotherchallengeforDSRCtechnologyisthatitrunson




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the5.9GHzband,whichmaybeopentounlicensedusersasdatatrafficincreases,causingcongestionandconfusionforDSRCtechnologies.Additionally,DSRCequippedcarsmustreachacriticalmasstoseeasafetyeffects,whichmaytakeyears.Inthemeantime,severalcompaniesarealreadyusingDRSCtechnologiesinfleetvehicles.(Jinetal.,2015)

AnalternativetoDSRC,cellularnetworksalreadyprovideoff-the-shelfvehicleconnectivityandmay incorporate cloud data to lower costs. In severalmarkets, using cellular telematics to providevehicle connectivity bypasses government intervention and there is great market potential in thedevelopmentofthesetechnologies.

VehicularAd-HocNetworks(VANET)essentiallyturnvehiclesintowirelessroutersandcanbeemployedwitheitheroftheabovementionedtechnologies.Vehicleswithin100-300metresofeachother connect to create a vast network by information “hopping” through multiple intermediatevehicles.(Jinetal.,2015)

Singaporealreadyhassignificantsmartroad infrastructureforV2Iconnectivity.TheExpressMonitoringAdvisory System (EMAS)doesnot currently useV2I communication, but employs videosurveillancetomonitortrafficandcommunicates informationaboutupcomingroads inreal-timetodrivers.ThisfunctionalitymightbeboostedbyV2VandV2Icommunications;thisinformationcompletewithalternativeroutescouldbedeliveredtodriversatanypointinsteadofjustataparticularjunction.

ThecurrentElectronicRoadPricing(ERP)systemusesshortrangecommunicationbetweenavehicleadd-onandastationarygantrytoreducecongestioninthecitycenteranddiscouragecarusage.In February 2016, LTA announced the development of a new ERP system (ERP2) based on GlobalNavigationSatelliteSystemTechnologyandcellulartelematics(designedfor4GLTE)withcamerastoenforcetrafficrules(TheStraitsTimes,2016).Figure3illustratestheERP2concept.Thenewsystemwillbeabletochargedrivers’congestiontaxesaswellasparkingfeesautomatically.Itwillalsobeabletoalertdriversaboutcongestionthroughthevehicleadd-on.ThegovernmentisconsideringusingERP2tochargeusersbasedondistancedriven,thoughnotinitsimmediaterolloutin2020.WhileothercitieshaveimplementedERPandautomaticparkingchargesbyusingAutomaticNumberPlateRecognition(ANPR),Singapore’sERP2systemisabletoprovidemuchmoredataandfunctionality,makingitalargestepforwardinV2Itechnology.

Figure3.ERP2Concept.(source:TheStraitsTimes,LTA)




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CHALLENGESANDEXPECTATIONSFORTHEFUTUREInaPewsurveyof1,606experts,83%respondedthattheyexpectedtheInternetofThingsto

“havewidespreadandbeneficialeffectsontheeverydaylivesofthepublicby2025”(J.Andersonetal.,2014). Forexample, ifwearableswereadopted intoSingapore’s smartmobility systemasaway topromoteand trackactivemobility - through, forexample, schemeswhich reward thosewhospendmore time walking, biking, or using personal mobility devices - that may reduce congestion andencourage healthy behaviour. However, there are many concerns about the trade-off betweenconvenienceandprivacy.Ifeveryactivityismonitored,andhundredsofothersmartobjectsareabletomakedecisions,theycanalsomanipulatepeople’sbehavioursandchoices,leadingtopotentialsocialills. Additionally, it is challenging to ensure the security of many connected objects. Theymay bevulnerabletohacking,andthereisalsotheissueofinstallingnewfirmwareoneachobjectasupdatesarereleased,whichpeoplearealreadyreluctanttodowiththeircurrentdevices.(M.Anderson,2014b)

Thechallengesofconnectedvehiclesincludeprivacy,security,dataownershipandliability.Thecostofadoptionisalsoanissue:ifinitialV2Xapplicationsareavalue-addforthedriver,theconsumermay pay amonthly fee or a higher price for the vehicle.Otherwise, the governmentmay need toprovidesubsidiestoencourageuptake.Finally,connecteddevicesthatinteractwithdriverscanleadtodistractionandunexpectederrors.

5Gcellularnetworksareexpectedtoarrive in2020,with1000timesthesystemcapacity,a100-fold increase indata rates anddevice connectivity, and significantly reduced latency toenabletactile Internet, augmented reality and real-time and dynamic control of machine-to-machinecommunication. (NTT Docomo, 2014) Connected vehicles may employ some kind of combinedconnectivityusingDSRCforbasicsafetyapplicationsand5Gorothernext-generationcellularnetworks.These communications will contribute to a safer driving experience and potentially usher inautonomousvehicles.WithimprovedV2VandV2Itechnology,itshouldbepossibletohavebothAVsandhuman-drivenvehiclesontheroadatthesametime.InSingapore,theimplementationofERP2and5Gcellularnetworkscreatesanopportunityforconnectedvehiclestocatchonevenbefore2040,catalysingashifttowardsAVs.

EssentialReading

Jin,P.,Fangnat,D.,Hall,A.,&Walton,C.(2015).EmergingTransportationTechnologiesWhitePapersVolume2:ConnectedVehicleTechnologies(Tech.No.0-6803-P2):UniversityofTexasAustinCenterforTransportationResearch.

TheStraitsTimes,S.(2016).ERP2.0goesthedistancewithnewtech.:StraitsTimes.




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AUTONOMOUSVEHICLES

SAE Internationaldefines6different levelsofdrivingautomation foron-roadvehicles. These levelsrange fromLevel0 fornoautomation to Level5 for full automationas shown in theFigure4 (SAEInternational,2014).

In this report,autonomousvehicles (AVs),whicharealsopopularlyknownasself-drivingordriverlessvehicles,areconsideredtobeatLevel5ofthisscale.Suchvehiclesarecapableofhandlingallaspectsofdrivingonalltypesofroadsandinallenvironmentalconditions.AVsmaybepersonallyowned,fleetvehicles,orpartofalargerpublictransportationsystemsuchasshuttlebuses.

AVsareexpectedtoincreaseconvenienceandaddressmanpowerandlandconstraintsaswellas safety concerns. Human error is often the last failure in a chain of events leading to each roadaccident (NHTSA, 2008). Sophisticated on-board systems of AVs can navigate without humaninterventionandhavethepotentialtoreduceroadaccidentssubstantially.Inaddition,AVsfreeuptimeforpassengersforthedurationoftheircommutesincenohumandriversareneeded.

CURRENTSTATEANDROLEINSINGAPORE’SMOBILITYSYSTEM Many vehicles today already possess somedegree of automation using a variety of driver-assistancetoolsthataidinsteering,accelerationanddeceleration.ThesevehiclestypicallyfallunderSAE Levels 1 and 2, and human drivers are still in charge of monitoring the driving environment.Google’s dome-shaped two-seater, which is still under development, is considered a SAE Level 4vehicle.Atthislevel,automateddrivingsystemsmonitorthedrivingenvironment,minimisinghumaninterventionbecausethesystemhascompletecontrolofthecar.

Researchisongoingtodevelopvehiclesthatcanachievefullautonomy.Challengeslikegettingsuchvehiclestooperateinadverseweatherconditionslikethunderstormsandondifferenttypesofroadwaysarestillworks-in-progress.

Automationfeaturessuchaslane-keepingassistance,parking-assist,collisionavoidance,andadaptivecruisecontrolarealreadywidelyavailable,andvehiclemanufacturerssuchasFord,Renault,Nissan,andToyotaanticipatethelaunchofthefirstcommercially-readyAVsby2020(Naughton,2015)(Turvil,2016) (D.Lee,2015).Figure5showsOlli,anautonomousshuttledesignedbyLocalMotors.Trialsareinprogressaroundtheworld.Forinstance,DelphiAutomotivecompletedacoast-to-coastdrive in the United States in April 2015, with 99% of the journey in automated mode (DelphiAutomotive,2015).IntheUnitedKingdom,theUKAutodriveconsortiumconsistingofcompaniessuchasJLR,TataMotors,Ford,andThalesarepreparingfortrialsofautonomouspassengercarsinCoventryand Milton Keynes that will last until 2018 (Matthews, 2015). However, a number of technicalchallenges remain, and recent deaths in Tesla AVs pose further challenges to implementation andadoption(NTSB,2016).




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Figure4.SAEInternationalJ3016LevelsofDrivingAutomation.(SAEInternational,2014)

AccordingtotheLTAandMinistryofTransport,AVscanpotentiallyaddressSingapore’slandandmanpowerconstraints(LTA,2015;LTA&MOT,2015),andself-drivingvehicletrialsareongoingintheone-northregionandGardensbytheBay.AVssuchastheAlphardbuiltbyA*STAR(A*STAR,2015)andSCOTbySMART-NUS(SMART,2015),andtheVehicle-to-InfrastructureNTU-NXPSmartMobilityTestBed(NTU,2015)areexamplesofexistinginitiatives.Inaddition,severalstakeholdersarejointlydevelopingtechnologiessuchasautonomoustruckplatooning.Forinstance,theMinistryofTransport,MaritimeandPortAuthority,andPSASingaporeareresearchingautomatedguidedvehicles(Aggarwal,2015), and the Sentosa Development Corporation and ST Engineering are developing self-drivingshuttleservices(Ong,2015).

Figure5.AutonomousBus(source:Olli)




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CHALLENGESANDEXPECTATIONSFORTHEFUTURE ThereareanumberofwaysinwhichAVsmaybenefitthetransportecosysteminSingapore.AVsmaybeusedtomovepackagesfrompoint-to-pointduringoff-peakhours,reducingthenumberofvehiclesonroadsduringpeakperiods.AVsmayalsobeemployedasfeederbusservicesoron-demandtransport,alleviatingmanpowershortagesinthetransportationsector.

Moreover,AVsmaybecomecommonplaceinSingaporefasterthanelsewhereintheworlddueto V2I technologies already implemented for ERP2. Such technologies would assist both semi-autonomous and fully-autonomous vehicles with automated navigation while easing congestionthroughreal-timetrafficplanningandrouting.Thiswouldalsoenhanceroadsafetyasvehicleswillbemoreawareoftheirsurroundingsandcanreduceaccidentscausedbyhumanerror.

Policieswill have to address issues of regulation, insurance, liability and social acceptance.Giventhatvehicleshaveusefullivesofatleast10to20years,thegovernmentshouldprepareforalong transitionperiod inwhichvehiclesofmanydifferent levelsof autonomyoperateon the sameroads.Additionally,somebenefitsmaynotbeasgreatasexpected.Freightdeliveriesmaystillrequirephysicalhand-offstocustomers,meaningthatautonomousfreightvehiclesmaynotreducemanpowerrequirements. Also, although truck platooning is useful for highway driving, individual vehicles willeventuallydivergetoreachtheirrespectivedestinations.Asforpassengerservices,eventhoughAVscouldbeusefulforseniorcitizenswhomayneedassistancetotravel,itisunclearwhethertheywouldbereceptivetoAVs,especiallyifthereisstillapossibilityofaccidents.Inaddition,theeaseandcomfortoftravellinginAVsmayresultinmoretripsbeingmade.

Givensuchlimitations,theadoptionofAVsmaytakelongerthanexpected.AreportfromtheVictoriaTransportPolicyInstituteexpectsthattheimpactsofAVtechnologywillnotbefeltuntilthe2050sor2060s.ThisprojectionwasbasedontheimplementationtimeofpastvehicletechnologiesandthetechnologicalinfrastructurerequiredforAVs(Litman,2015).Nonetheless,weexpectthatAVswillhaveahighimpactonthetransportecosystem,butthefullbenefitsofafullyautonomousnetworkofvehiclesmayonlyberealisedinafewdecades.

EssentialReading

Litman,T.(2015).AutonomousVehicleImplementationPredictions:VictoriaTransportPolicyInstitute.

Jin,P.,Fangnat,D.,Hall,A.,&Walton,C.(2015).EmergingTransportationTechnologiesWhitePapersVolume2:ConnectedVehicleTechnologies(Tech.No.0-6803-P2):UniversityofTexasAustinCenterforTransportationResearch.




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ELECTRICANDALTERNATIVEFUELVEHICLESElectricvehicles(EV)relyonbatteriesandsignificantlyreducenoiseandairpollution.Hybridelectricvehicles (HEV) have both an electric motor and traditional engine that are either coupled to useregenerativebrakingandmotorassistance,orindependentlyuseeitherpetrolorelectricity.Alternativefuelvehiclesontheotherhandsimplyrunonfuelsotherthanpetrolordiesel-thiscategoryincludesEVsthatalsorunonsolarpower,biofuels,compressedorliquidnaturalgas,orhydrogen).

There have been numerous attempts worldwide to invest in alternative fuels and electricvehiclesasenvironmentalconsciousnesshasrisen.Figure6showsTesla'sconceptofelectriccarandchargingstations.However,EVshavehigherupfrontcosts than traditionalvehiclesandSingapore’svehicletaxreducestheirlifecyclecostcompetitiveness.

Figure6.ElectricVehicle(source:Tesla)

Furthermore,Singapore’savailableenergysourcesarelimited,suchthattheelectricityusedbyEVsproducescarbonemissionsontheoverall,andtheostensibly“zero-carbon”EVsarestillsubjecttoemissionstaxes(Tan,2016).Additionally,theaccessibilityofalternativessuchascompressednaturalgasfuelsislimited.Compressednaturalgas(CNG)vehiclesexperiencedashortboominpopularitythatdiminishedrapidlywhenusersfoundveryfewlocations(withshortoperatinghours)forrefuellingtheircars.Manyhaverevertedtousingthepetrolenginealmostexclusively(Tan,2010). Consumersarenowturningtodieselcars(Cuellar,2015)asasemi-alternativefuelsource,drawnbylowprices,bettermileageandreducedCO2emissionsalbeithigherparticleemissions.

CURRENTSTATEANDROLEINSINGAPORE’SMOBILITYSYSTEMInLTA’sinvestigationofEVsin2011-2013,EVsweredeemedeconomicallyunfeasibleatthat

time, although the interagency Electro-Mobility Singapore (EMS) Taskforce found them to betechnicallyfeasibleinSingapore.ThelifetimecostofanEVisstillsignificantlyhigherthanthatofaninternalcombustionenginevehicle(LTA,2014),andinadditiontothehighupfrontcostsofowninganEV, there is littlepublic charging infrastructure.However, it isalsonoted that the testbed laid thegroundworkforanEVecosystembasedonelectricvehiclesharing(1,000sharedelectriccarswouldbedeployedby2020)andinvestigatingtheuseofelectricfleetvehicles(HDTSingaporeTaxiappliedforanoperatorlicensefor100electrictaxis)(ChannelNewsAsia,2016),(A.Lim,2016).

Costswillonlygodownoncebatterytechnologyimprovesandwhenacertaincriticalmassofvehicles isontheroad,andbuyinwillonlyoccuroncetherearemanypublicchargingstationsandseveral EV types for consumers to choose from, which results in a chicken-and-egg problem.




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Bloomberg’sNewEnergyFinanceresearchpredictsthatbatterytechnologywillbecomeeconomicallyfeasiblearound2025andthat35%ofnewcarsaleswillbeEVsby2040.SomebusinessesareadoptingHEVsinthemeantimeasitallowsforfastergrowththanfullyEVsgiventhecurrentlackofinfrastructure(K.Lim,2016).Plug-inHEVswentonthemarketinSingaporein2008andasofMar2016,therearetwopureEVsand112Plug-inPetrolElectricVehiclesregistered(EnergyResearchInstitute,2016).ThisisaverysmallpercentageofSingapore’s totalpersonalvehiclesontheroad, though it isexpectedthatHEVsaremostlikelytogrowbeforefullEVsinmostmarkets(TheEconomist,2004).

CHALLENGESANDEXPECTATIONSFORTHEFUTUREExpertswespoketowerepessimisticthatEVswouldformanimportantpartofthetransport

ecosysteminSingaporeby2040.However,theyagreedthatiftherewasstrongpoliticalwillbackingawidespreadrollout,EVscouldbeviablewithinonlyafewyears.TheLTAacknowledgesthatthisrolloutistechnicallyfeasible,butchallengestoimplementationremain.Currently,EVsinSingaporeareusedmostly in car sharing schemes or for research, though the government is supportive of furtherdevelopmentandexpansion.EVtechnologymayalsoplayasignificantroleinmobilitymodesinthefuture, whether in cars or other devices taking advantage of potential future charging stationinfrastructure across Singapore. For now, companiesmust install their own charging infrastructureinsteadofusingpublicresources;standardisedchargingmusteventuallybedevelopedtoenableEVinteroperabilitybetweennetworksandcountries(EnergyResearchInstitute,2016).

Electrificationofbuses,oratleasthybridisation,willlikelyoccurby2050accordingtotheLTA’sE-mobility Technology Roadmap. Buses in Singapore produce the highest amount of emissions pervehicle, and the Energy Research Institute at Nanyang Institute of Technology estimates thatelectrificationof50%ofbusesandhybridisationof10%canleadtoa56%decreaseinbusemissions,compared to a 25% decrease in personal vehicle emissions if EVs are adopted (Energy ResearchInstitute,2016).

AtechnicalriskofEVsbecomingcommonplaceisgridoverload,thoughsomeestimatessuggestthatEVs inSingaporewillonly increasedailygrid loadby4.8%(LTA,2014).However, ifasignificantnumberofEVsarechargingatonce(forexample,overnight)thenthatcouldcausegridissueswhichmayneedtobeaddressedbybatteryswappingandcharginginoff-peakhours(Bullis,2013).Thepublicmaynotadoptthesevehiclesiftheyarebothexpensiveandlimitedtooff-peaktravel,asitsignificantlyreducestheconvenienceofowningacar.Finally,therearesomesafetyriskswithEVs:forinstancetheyareusuallyveryquiet,whichcanbedangerousforpedestrianswhodonothearthemapproaching.

ItisexpectedthatEVtechnologywillplayalargeroleinconcertwithothertechnologiessuchasAVsandbean influencingfactor innewdesignsformobilitysystems.Accenture identifiedsevensuccessfactorsforEVadoptionin2014,whichincludeintegratingEVsintotheeMobilityvaluechain–for instance, through car sharing or other value propositions to consumers. The impact of EVs inSingaporewillnotbesomuchanenvironmentalone(duetoupstreamenergysources)asasymbolicandtechnologicalsteppingstoneintothefutureoftransportation.

EssentialReading

Accenture. (2014). The Electric Vehicle Challenge: Electric Vehicle Growth in an Evolving MarketDependentonSevenSuccessFactorsAccenture.




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PERSONALMOBILITYDEVICESPersonalMobilityDevices(PMDs)arerelativelylightweight,cantravelupto25km/h,andtypicallycarrya single person. Electric scooters (eMicro One, e-Twow), hoverboards (Powerboard, IOHawk),skateboards(Boostboard,Onewheel)andelectricunicycles(NinebotOne)allfallintothiscategoryandhavebecomepopular inSingapore in recentyears. Figure7 shows twocommon formsofPMDs inSingapore.

Figure7.PersonalMobilityDevices(source:JamesMartin/CNET)

Bicyclesarealsopersonalmobilitydevices,andfoldingbikesarebecomingapopularchoiceforfirstandlastmiletravel.Electricbicyclesarealsousedwidely,butmanyaretooheavyandmoveatfasterspeedsthantypicalPMDs.

Personal mobility assistants include wheelchairs and other assistive technologies for limited-mobilityusersandarenotsubjecttothesameweightlimitsasPMDs.MuchoftheresearchonelectricPMDspertainstotheuseofSegways,whicharesignificantlylargerthanthePMDsallowedinSingapore,buthaveapplicablelessonswithregardtotheuseofPMDsforfirstandlastmiletravel(Dowlingetal.,2015).

CURRENTSTATEANDROLEINSINGAPORE’SMOBILITYSYSTEMThebattery-poweredPMDsoftodayusevariousapproachestomobility.Someuse“intuitive”

technologyor a gyroscope, relyingon the rider’s shiftingweight to accelerateor changedirection;examples include hoverboards and Segways. Some skateboards are steered by shiftingweight andacceleratedorstoppedusingahandhelddevice.Scootersmayaccelerateandbrakeusinghandlebarcontrolsorbymanuallykickingoff,andturningusingthesteeringbar(Hollister,2016).

InApril2016,theLTAreleasedofficialrulesontheuseofPMDsandbicycles,allowingthemonbothfootandcyclepathsiftheymeetcertainweightandspeedlimits.ThisallowsfortheintegrationofPMDsintoSingapore’smobilitysystemforfirstandlastmiletravel,betweenhomeandtheMRTorbusstation.Singapore’sfootpathsarealsowell-keptandeasiertorideonthaninothercities.However,someareconcernedbythelimitedenforcementandunclearrulesaboutfinesorotherpunishmentforspeedingorrecklessbehaviouronnarrowfootpaths(A.Lee,2016).InsurancepoliciesforPMDusersandcyclistsarenowavailabletoprotectagainstpersonalharmordamagecausedtoothers,furtherencouraginguseofPMDs(NTUCIncome).




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CHALLENGESANDEXPECTATIONSFORTHEFUTURE DuetothesafetyconcernsabouthoverboardsandotherelectricPMDs,somepredictthatsuchtechnologyisalreadyonitswayout,withbansintheUScatalysingwithdrawal.Amazonhasrecalledseveralbrandsofhoverboardsduetofiresoccurringfrommalfunctioninglithiumionbatteries,andtheproductionofthesePMDsisnotwellregulated.StudiesincitiesintheUSandAustraliahaveshownthatcrashratespermileforactivemobilitymodesarehigherthaninpassengervehicles.However,asactivemobilityincreasesinacommunity,bothtrafficandpedestriancasualtyratesdecline(ABW,2010-2016). Acceptance rates notwithstanding, there are still concerns about sidewalk congestion andmixed-speeduserssharingthesamesmallwalkways,andfallsfromtheserelativelyhighspeedvehiclescan prove fatal (Cheong, 2016). As Singapore moves towards allowing them on footpaths andpromotingPMDsasaformofactivemobility,theymayincreaseinpopularityinsteadofdisappearingquicklyastheyhaveinotherpartsoftheworld,especiallyifPMDscanbecomesaferforbothusersandpedestrianswithoutincreasingsubstantiallyinprice.

WhileelectricPMDssolvesomeofthecriticismsofconventionalbikes,suchasnotrequiringtoomucheffortandbeingsmallerandmorereadilycarriedontopublictransportation,theyarestillheavytocarryoverlongdistancesandseenasunprofessional.Reducingthephysicalexertionrequiredin last mile travel does not completely combat the issue of sweating due to Singapore’s climate.Additionally, adverse weather hinders their use, and PMD’s often cannot handle steep gradients.Moreover,theyaremoreexpensivethanconventionalbicycles.

TherearetwowaysPMDsmightbeutilisedinthecomingfewyears.Firstly,theymaycontinuetoserveinthesamewayasbicyclesasaformoflast-miletransportation,sharingthesamelanesaspedestriansandencouragedthroughgovernmentandworkplacepolicies.Asharingmodel,muchlikebikesharessuchasHubwayorBarclayBikes,couldbedeveloped.Alternatively,theymayadvancewithtechnology,becomingfasterandmore“pod-like”andrequiringseparatelanes,beingneithercarsnorsmallPMDs–muchliketheambiguousspacee-bikescurrentlyoccupy.ThishasbeentheevolutionofToyota’sPMDs,withthei-Swingandi-Realaselectricwheelchairsthatcannavigatepedestrianspaceswitheasetothenewestmodel,thei-Road,whichresemblesanenclosedmotorbikeandusesintuitivemotionsofthepassengertomovequicklyonroads,thoughnotasquicklyasatraditionalcar.

EssentialReading

Dowling,R.,Irwin,J.,Faulks,I.,&Howitt,R.(2015).Useofpersonalmobilitydevicesforfirst-and-lastmiletravel:TheMacquarie-Rydetrial.Paperpresentedatthe2015AustralasianRoadSafetyConference,GoldCoast.

Panel.,A.M.A.(2016).RecommendationsonRulesandCodeofConductForCyclingandtheUseofPersonalMobilityDevicesLTA.




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SHAREDCITYCARS

CityCarsare“right-sized”vehiclesforuseinurbanareas,meaningthattheyareusuallysizedfor1-3people.VehicleoccupancyratesinSingaporestandatlessthantwopeoplepervehicle(Menonetal.,2006),creatinganopportunitytoeasecongestionandparkingissuesthroughmorecompactvehicles.Citycarsarealsomorefuelefficient,lightweight,andrequirefewermaterialsinconstruction,makingthemeconomicaltobuyanduse.

CarSharing systemsallowpeople toownand rent cars,or collectivelyowncars,andsomepredicta futureofsharedcitycars.Newer iterationsarebasedoffmobile technologies to facilitatesharing.ArthurD.Little’sFutureofUrbanMobilityReportpredictsthatcarsharingwillbecomemassmarketinthenextfewyears,andproffersseveralcarsharingbusinessmodels(VanAudenhoveetal.,2014).Inurbanenvironments,sharedcitycarsofferapossibleavenueforoptimisinglandusethroughfewerandsmallercarsinadditiontoreducingemissions.

CURRENTSTATEANDROLEINSINGAPORE’SMOBILITYSYSTEM Therearedifferentmodelsofimplementationforcitycarsandcarsharingaroundtheworld.Japanhasregulatedcitycars,calledkeicars,whichwerepopularisedinthepost-wareratoencouragemotorisation. Now there are several electric versions as well, and all kei cars have reduced taxescomparedtofullsizecars,butarepersonallyownedvehicles.Seoulhasacarsharingnetworkhasbeengrowingrapidlysince2013(SMG,2015).Byusingapublic-privatepartnershipmodelandmostlysmalldomesticcitycarsorEVs,inthelastthreeyearsSeoulhasdeployedover4,000vehicles(Hong,2016),beenusedbyover1.9millionpeople,andestimatedthat1sharedvehicleremoves8.5vehiclesfromtheroad(SeoulMetropolitanGovernment,2015).Finally,car2goisthelargestcarsharingcompanyintheworld, located in29cities inEuropeand theUSAaswell asChina. It exclusivelyuses city cars:conventionalorelectric SmartFor-twocars.Theirmodelallowsone-way tripsanddoesnot strictlyrequirereservations,addressingtwocomplaintsusershaveabouttraditionalcarsharingprogrammes(Car2go,2016).

Majorcompaniesandresearchgroupsparadeconcept‘citycarsofthefuture’everyfewyears.However, few gain traction. MIT’s 2007 CityCar (Figure 8), pitched as an eco-friendly solution totransportationwoes,wasextremelysmall,electric,designedforcarsharingprogrammes,andcouldfolditselftostackuponothercitycarsandconsumelessspacewhenimmobile.However,duetoslowcommercialproduction,theprojectleaderdeclaredthetechnologyobsoleteandsaidAVswouldfillthenicheinstead(Frayeretal.,2015).

Figure8.MITCityCar(source:YahooNews)




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Traditional car sharing in Singapore exists but is not very popular, likely due to theinconvenienceofseveralsmallcompaniesspreadoutacrosstheisland,strictregulations,andlackofavailabilityofoptions.However,expertshavepointedoutthatwhenERP2becomesoperational,therewillbeanopportunitytooverhaulthevehicletaxregimeandimproveitsuchthatthepopulationofcitycarsincreasesandcongestiondecreases.

CHALLENGESANDEXPECTATIONSFORTHEFUTURE Bothcarsharingservicesandsmallercitycarsencourageuserstothinkofcarsasautility,asopposedtoastatussymbol (Wall,2014).Severalcarmanufacturerscontinuetotrytomakesimilarextremelysmallcarswork–NissanandRenaulthavepilotedacity-carsharingprogrammewithScootinSanFrancisco,andToyota’si-RoadsaresharedonthestreetsofGrenoble,France.Invisionsofthefuture,citycars,EVs,andmobiletechnologyallworktogethertoprovideaseamlessandsustainabletransportationexperience.

SomechallengestocarsharinginSingaporeincludecomplextaxstructuresandERPcharges,as well as expensive parking. The question of ownership and responsibility for damage is anotherbarrier. It is also expensive and inconvenient to use traditional car rentals.Moreover, on-demandservicesUberandGrabarealreadypopular,withride-sharingappslikeRydeaimingtofillthegap,sodrivingwithinSingaporelooksevenlessattractive.

There are also some concerns as to whether car sharing and ride-sharing are in directcompetitionwithoneanotheroriftheycancoexist,andwhichoptionuserswillpreferinthefuture.Ride-sharing is currently basedonpersonal ownership of a vehicle, andmaybecome too costly orburdensomeifacarsharingplanisadopted.Carandride-sharingcouldworktogetherinthecaseofentirelyautonomousvehiclesontheroadthatoptimiseroutesandpickupmultiplepassengers,thoughitwouldbeafundamentallydifferentmodeltotoday’scarsharing.

ManypredictthatAVswillalsoeffectivelyberight-sizedcitycars,whichwillbeabletotraileachotherandworkcooperatively.Infact,thereplacementofMIT’sCityCaristheirPersuasiveElectricVehicle(PEV)thatisintendedtoactasacombinationofEV,PMD,citycarandautonomoushumanandfreighttransporter(Barr,2015).

EssentialReading

VanAudenhove,F.,Korniichuck,O.,Dauby,L.,&Pourbaix,J.(2014).TheFutureofUrbanMobility2.0: ArthurD.LittleFutureLab,UITP.




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DRONESANDFREIGHTROBOTICS

AdroneisanytypeofUnmannedAerialVehicle(UAV).Typicallyseenasalast-miledeliverysolution,dronesrunonbatterypoweranduseavarietyofsensorsandmultiplerotorstostayaloft,controltheirposition,manage inclementweather, and land safely (Pullen, 2015).Gyroscopes, pressure sensors,accelerometersandGPSprovidethousandsofdatainputsperminute,andmayuseseveralprocessorsinparallel.

AnAutomatedGroundVehicle(AGV)isanunmannedgroundvehiclethatisquitecommoninfactoriesandwarehouses,butnottypicallyusedfor last-miledeliveries.Theyusesimilarsensorstodronestoreceiveinformationandnavigateawarehouseorloadingdock,orfollowapredictablepath.SeveraltypesofAGVsareused,fromautomatedforkliftstounit-loadAGVsthatmighthandlepallets(MHI,2016).Thesearealsocommonlyusedinportstotransitionfromseatolandsafelyandefficientlyassupersizedshipsbecomemorecommon(Phillips,2016),andasthedemandformoresustainableorenvironmentally friendly technology increases (Wieschemann, 2016). These innovations indirectlyimpactSingapore’smobilitysystemthroughthewaygoodsmaybehandledinthefuture,aswellasland-useimpactsandkeepingupwithincreasingdemandforglobalgoods.

CURRENTSTATEANDROLEINSINGAPORE’SMOBILITYSYSTEM Despitemanypredictingdronestobepervasivebynow,theyhaveyettobedeployedenmasseduetoregulatorychallenges.DronesasgoodstransportsolutionshavebeengainingpopularitysincebigplayerslikeAmazon(PrimeAir,asshowninFigure9)andGoogle(ProjectWing)announcedplansin2014 todeliver packages to customers via drone.However, this use casemaybe years away fromrelease,duetobothtechnologicalandlegallimitations.

Figure9.AmazonPrimeAir(source:Amazon)

Dronesaremorecommonlyusedinmilitaryapplicationssuchasattacksandsurveillanceorforfilming (BBCNews,2012) rather than for transportation,althoughsomecompaniesareable tousedronestotransporthigh-value/low-weightgoodsinareaswithoutflightregulationsandlimitedroadinfrastructure.MatternetusesdronestodelivermedicinesandbloodsamplesindevelopingareaslikeHaitiandLesotho,whereroadnetworksarescarceandregulationslax,averaging24centsperjourney(Raptopoulos,2013).Theyhopetomakeuseofdronesincongestedcitiesbyeffectivelyhavingalayerofairspacededicatedtoadronepostal system.Dronesarealsobeingassessed forpotentialuse inorgandonation/transplantsbetweenhospitals(Kumarl,2016).




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AGVscontinuetobe instated,particularly inports,butduetothehighcostof replacinganentiresystem,implementationisrolledoutoverseveralyears.AsmallerandnimblertypeofAGVisbeginningtoappearinindustrialsettings,andcaneasilymovefromindustrialtocommercialsettings.Somenewindustrialrobotscarrysmallloadsorworkcollaborativelywithhumans(sometimescalledcobots).Amazon’spickingrobotsareanexampleofthesecobotswhichspeedupwarehouseactivitiesand are accurate about 98%of the time (Heath, 2016). Amazon’s robots have several competitorswhichworkas“fastmechanicalpackmules,”followingahumanpickeraroundandcarryingaloaduntilanorderiscomplete,thentakingittoapackingstationorrechargingitself(Soper,2015).Figure10showssuchrobotsbyFetch.

Figure10.FetchRobotics(source:EvanAckerman/IEEE)

DronesarenotcurrentlyamajorpartofSingapore’smobilitysystem,butahobbyist’s item.However, an agreementwas recentlymade to test drones for last-mile delivery in a collaborationbetweenNUS andAirbus, and several other inter-agency uses are currently being tested (AircargoNews,2016).SingPosthasalsodoneatestflightwithadronebetweenthemainlandandPulauUbin(SingPost,2015).Singapore’sportshavemovedtowardsfreightautomation, investingheavily inthePasirPanjiangTerminalandTuasports.

CHALLENGESANDEXPECTATIONSFORTHEFUTURE Thechallengewithdrones,AGVs,andcobotsarethattheyarecurrentlyexpensive,butasthepriceofsensorsandcomputersdrops,theybecomemoreeconomicallyfeasible.Commonconcernsinclude privacy and possible job reduction as the transportation and manufacturing sectors movetowardsautomation.However,forcitieswithlabourshortages,thismayinsteadbehelpful.

Dronetechnologyitselfmaycontinuetoimproveandevencarryhumans,asE-hang’shumansizeddrone(whichisstillundertesting)ispurportedtodo(Rundle,2016).Inthenext25years,cityairspacemayberegulatedtoallowandmanagedronesforlast-milegoodstraveloreventoreplacethecurrentpostalsystem.Asmoreitemsaredeliveredon-demand,travelpatternsmaychangeaspeopleneedtomakefewertrips.Attheveryleast,droneswillcontinuetobeusedformonitoringandsafetypurposes. Communication betweenUAVs and carsmay reroute traffic as V2X technology becomesmorewidespread.Forexample,asproposedintheSiemens2015MobilityIDEAcompetition,dronescouldcommunicatewithcarstoleadthemtoanopenparkingspace(ITSInternational,2015).Drones




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may also monitor infrastructure quality and deploy workers only when a fix is required, avoidingaccidents,costlyrepairsandshut-downs(Chant,2014).

AGVsmaybedeployedinanundergroundfreightnetworktoreducecongestionandimproveefficiency. Switzerland is already planning the Cargo Sous Terrain, an autonomous undergroundlogistics system for pallet-loaded AGVs running along electromagnetic tracks (Cargo Sous Terrain).Thesepalletsmaythenbeunloadedatdeliverycentresthroughoutthecityandrunfor24hoursaday.

Robotsandotherautomatedassistivedeviceshavehugepotentialforbusiness,government,andindividuals,withthemarketexpectedtoincreaseten-foldinthenextfiveyears(Tobe,2015).Theywillnolongerbeusedalmostexclusivelyinmanufacturing,butmayalsobedeployedalongsidehumansforanynumberoftasks.TheymayworktogetherwithAGVsanddronesase-commercegrows,pickingpackagesorbuyingitemsandthensendingthemtoconsumersviaanundergroundnetworkofAGVsorviadrone.Alternatively,theymaybecomesocheapthatcitizenscanownthem,ashashappenedwiththeRoomba,aroboticvacuumcleaner.Futurecobotscanassistwithshopping,cleaning,andevenprovidingcarefortheelderlytopromoteaging-in-place.Developmentswillhavetobemadeinrobot-humaninteractionandinincreasingcomfortlevelswithsmartmachinesforsucharealitytomanifest.

EssentialReading

Tobe,F.(2015).WhyCo-BotsWillBeaHugeInnovationandGrowthDriverforRoboticsIndustry.:IEEE.




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VIRTUALREALITYANDTELECOMMUTING

Telecommuting,orworkingoutsideacentralofficeandtransferringinformationremotely,isanideawhichexistedevenbeforemobiletechnologybecamecommonplace. In1973, JackNilleswroteTheTelecommunications-Transportation Tradeoff, proposing telecommuting as an alternative to drivingintocentralbusinessdistrictsandrecommendingtheuseofsatelliteoffices(Gan,2015).Severalstudieshave noted that telecommuting reduced overall person-miles per day. However, there is limitedresearchonhow this impactsoverallmobilitypatterns (Kitamuraetal., 1991).With the riseof theInternet, faster connection speeds, and near-instant information transfer, telecommuting is mucheasiernowthaninthe1970sbutcanfurtherbeimprovedusingartificialrealitytechnologies.

Augmented Reality (AR) overlays existing reality with virtual enhancements that can bedistinguishedfromreality.Thisisfrequentlyusedinmobiledevices.VirtualReality(VR),ontheotherhand, is an immersive artificial simulation or recreation of real-life situations, often experiencedthroughaheadset(Augment,2015).Thismayinfluencetransportationpatterns,ascertainactivitiespeoplemighttravelfor(e.g.movies,meetingvenues)maytakeplace inavirtualworld instead(seeTable1fordetails).

Table1:ScopeofAugmentedRealityandVirtualReality(AdaptedfromPWC)

AugmentedReality(AR)

VirtualReality(VR)

PresenceReferstowhethertheuserisphysicallypresentatthelocationoftheexperience.

Yes No

MovementReferstowhethertheusercanphysicallynavigatethroughtheenvironment

Yes No

Real-timeReferstowhethertheusercaninteractinreal-timewiththeenvironmenthe/sheisin

Yes Depends

See-throughCapabilityReferstowhethertheusercanseepasttheenvironmenthe/sheistoseethephysicalspacearoundthem

Yes No

CURRENTSTATEANDROLEINSINGAPORE’SMOBILITYSYSTEM BothARandVRhaveavarietyofproductsassociatedwiththem.MicrosoftHoloLens,MagicLeap(Figure11),andtheOculusRiftareallonthevergeofgoingtomarket,withsmartphoneenabled“headsets”suchasGoogleCardboardalreadyinthemarket,albeitnotyetusedfortelecommuting.




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Figure11.ViewthroughMagicLeap(source:MagicLeap)

Telecommuting is much more popular in the USA than in Asia for cultural and economicreasons.Arelativelyshortcommute,smallhomesandstrongcorporate“face-time”cultureencourageworkerstocometotheofficeeveryday.ApilotprogrammeatIBMSingaporeencouragedemployeestospendmoretimewithclientswiththesideeffectofallowingpeopletoworkfromhomebysimplyremovingdeskssotherewasonlyoneforeveryfouremployees.Managerskeepincontactviaphonecalls,e-mails,onlinegroupchatsessionsandregularone-on-onemeetings(Prystay,1999).However,therearefewcompaniesdoingthis.

In an effort to capitalise on the benefits of satellite offices close to home, the InfocommDevelopmentAuthorityofSingaporesetupSmartWorkCentresinthreelibrariesin2014(iDA,2014).Additionally,“coworking”spacesarebecomingmorepopular(Ang,2016).Theseactassatelliteofficesorastepupfromworkingincafésbutarestilllocatedaroundthecentralbusinessdistrict,whichdoesnotreducecongestionbutdoesindicateacultureshifttodifferenttypesofworkingspaces.

ARandVRhavebeenusedby the SingaporeCivilDefenceForce for training scenarios andpractice,buthavenotyetbeenusedextensivelyinSingapore’smobilitysystem(EONReality,2014).

CHALLENGESANDEXPECTATIONSFORTHEFUTURE AugmentedRealityisalreadybeingconsideredforanefficientalternativetoin-officetrainings,andmaybeusedfortelecommutinginonlyafewyears.However,somepredictthatcommonuseofAR andVR technologies are at least a decade away. The failure ofGoogleGlass demonstrates thedifficultyofmarketpenetrationwiththesetechnologiesaswellasambiguousregulation.VRtechnologyisexpectedtobecomepopularfirst,throughtherealmofgaming.

Some studies show that telecommuting can increase productivity, while others show theopposite(Noonanetal.,2012),(Hamilton,2002).Telecommuting’simpactontrafficcongestionmayalsobemixed:thoughtheremaybelesspeakhourtraffic,trip-chaining,orcombiningseveralstopsinto one trip, may become more unlikely and shorter individual-purpose trips may occur instead.Furthermore,ifcongestionlessens,morepeoplemayseecarsasuseful,addingtothenumberofcarsonSingapore’sroads.




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Therearepowerandmobility challenges forbothARandVR technologies.As they requiresignificant processing power, the problem of supplying energy and carrying the hardware arises.Additionally,VRandARheadsetsareknowntocausenauseaandeyefatigue(Begole,2016).However,therearesomeadvancesinexpandingfieldofview(Xiaoetal.,2016),typesofprojection,andhapticfeedback. Some foresight studies believe that virtual travel will be a valid alternative to physicaljourneysby2040.Thistechnologyhasthepossibilityoffundamentallychangingtravelpatterns,thoughitisunclearwhetherthiswillbeawhollypositiveeffect.

EssentialReading

Hamilton, E. (2002). Bringing Work Home Advantages and Challenges of Telecommuting: BostonCollegeCenterforWork&Family.

Baya,V.,&Sherman,E.(2015).Theroadaheadforaugmentedreality:PwC.




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RESEARCHTEAMThestudywasperformedbyamulti-disciplinaryteamofresearchersbasedattheSingaporeUniversityofTechnologyandDesign(SUTD).

PROJECTWEBSITE

WWW.MOBILITY.SUTD.EDU.SG/FORESIGHT

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis material is based on research supported by the Singapore Ministry of NationalDevelopmentandNationalResearchFoundation,PrimeMinister'sOffice,Singapore,underL2NIC Award No. RGL2NIC1402.We thank the Singapore Land Transport Authority for theirinputs,aswellasthenumerousexpertsfromacademiaandindustryforsharingtheirinsightswithus.