technology transfer center bio, nano, info the keys to california's future the economic...
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Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Bio, Nano, InfoThe Keys to California's
Future The Economic Development Program
Advisory Committee
Ken DozierNASA Far West RTTC
5/19/2005
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
One Hundred Years Ago• Life expectancy was Forty-Seven Years• 8000 Cars• 144 Miles of Paved Road• 95% of the Births Occurred at Home• Pneumonia and Influenza Leading Killers• 6% of American’s graduated from High School• Lee De Forest “father of the radio” was persecuted
for mail fraud for his claim that he could transmit the human voice across the Atlantic
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Industry Clusters (Jobs?)
– “Industry Cluster”: collections of competing and collaborating industries in a region networked into horizontal and vertical relationships, involving strong common buyer-supplier linkages, and relying on a shared foundation of specialized economic institutions. Because they are built around export-oriented firms, industry clusters bring new wealth into a region an help drive the regions economic growth.
Industry Cluster Electronic
Key Export Oriented Firms
Key Supplier Oriented Firms
Key Economic Infrastructure Providers
Consumer Electronic Assembly
Computer Hardware Assembly
Tool, Die & Machinery
Office & Production Supply
Specialized Component Supply
Education & Training Institutions
Physical Infrastructure Providers
Financial and Regulatory Institutions
(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)
B01-039
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
“When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight”
Jack Welch, Former Chairman General Electric
The Future
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
½ Fortune 500 Companies Gone
(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Info-Tech
Nano-Tech
Bio-Tech
Technologies Change Fast
Copyright SRI International 2002
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
People Don’t
Truth Knowledge Belief
Universal
No Debate
Effect
Social
Converge on debate
Cause
Personal
Diverge on debate
Cause
10 Philosophical Mistakes (Adler 85)
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Myths
• “Heavier Than Air Flying Machines are Impossible”, Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1903
• “There is a World Market for maybe five Computers”, Thomas Watson, Chairman IBM, 1945
• “There is not the Slightest Indication {Nuclear}
Energy will ever be Obtainable,” Albert Einstein
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
What’s Wrong
• For every 100 Dollars We Spend on the Retired Workforce
• We Spend 10 Dollars on the Emerging Workforce
• We Spend 1 Dollar on the Existing Workforce
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Jobs
Technology Based
Te
chn
olo
gy M
atu
rity
High
Low
High Low
Nanotech
Biotech
Infotech (HPC)
electronics
software
Small talent pool
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
1st Perspective
• Knowledge is a New Kind of Asset– The foundation of industrialized economy is shifting from natural
resources to intellectual assets (Hansen 99) (Davis 98)
– Knowledge assets are viewed as factors of production that may be more important than traditional resources of capital, labor and land. (Davis 98)
– Converging technologies and rapid innovations can transform markets Overnight . Administrative systems no longer provide the underpinnings of value creation. (Teece 98)
– Reward goes to those who are good a sensing and seizing opportunities. Dynamic capabilities are most likely to be resident in firms that are highly entrepreneurial. (Teece 98)
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
2nd Perspective• Entrepreneurship Super Normal Wealth Creator
– Business Environments Have Become Hypercompetitive because of the High Magnitude and Velocity of Interfirm Rivalries (D’Aveni, 94)
– Innovations in Products, Services, Business Processes, and Organizational Designs are Creating Dramatic Discontinuities in Product- Market Spaces and Disrupting the Traditional Approaches to Competitive Strategies and Business Conduct (Christensen, 97)
– In the Short Run, Entrepreneurial Firms Reaps Supernormal Returns (Create Wealth) as Established Incumbents and Rivals Seek to Understand the Competitive Disruptions in their Market Space.(Christensen 97)
– Thus Competition Occurs in the Form of a Series of Market Disruption Moves by New Entrants or Entrepreneurial Firms and Efforts by Incumbents and Rivals to Shape Their Response Actions (Young et al 96)
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
3rd Perspective• Entrepreneurial Firms Represent a New Online Community• Network computing, supported by advanced communications infrastructure, can
facilitate collaborative entrepreneuralism (Teece 98)• Successful business models set themselves apart in their communication design
leading to a deconstruction of traditional value chains and the emergence of value Webs. (Lechner 01)
• The most critical factor for a venture business success is how to implement and commercialize lab-based technology/knowledge/ideas into actual products and/or services (Sung 01)
• Entrepreneurial firms use knowledge to reshape clusters of assets in distinctive and unique combinations to serve ever changing customer needs. (Teece 98)
• The key sources of wealth creation at the dawn of the new millennium will lie with new enterprise formation. (Teece 98)
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Typical Waterfall modelSix Stages
basic research, development research, product and process ideas, prototype, production, diffusion
CriticismsToo much focus on the solution “push” basic research not the only initiator stagerelationship between research and commercialization is too complex to be linearUsers are the key “pull” to the problems and markets
Traditional Entrepreneurship
Sung
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
2001 study of startup companies across: Software telecom (35%), Bio-med (19%), Computers (16%), and Semi-conductors (10.8%) Most innovation at application stage (55%), development ( 22%), research (12%) production (9%)Age: Linear older ( 35-45), non linear (25-35)Education: Linear more (28%P,42%M,30%B), Non Linear (7.5%P, 22%M,67%B)Experience: Linear narrower (59% research, 35% commerce), Nonlinear (37% research, 29% commerce, 17% education)Both groups agreed on success factors: business plan, leadership, technical skills, management skills, and location
New Non-Linear Model
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Moore’s Law One Decade Left
Copyright SRI International 2002
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
California Council on Science and Technology 2004
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Nanotechnology Timeline
California Council on Science and Technology 2004
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Two Basic Methods
• Nanofabrication – Nanoscale Engineering
– Precise Sculpting or Building of Enhanced and New Materials
– Man Made Tools of processes, products or structures
• Self Assembly– Atoms and Molecules Growing Structures
– Nanotubes
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
New Materials *
• Before Nano we took the materials the earth provided (wood, stone, ore) and found creative applications
• Now we can manage the composition and combination of atoms, to form new stronger lighter metals, more flexible ceramics, more conductive plastics
• *The Next Big Thing is Really Small, Jack Uldrich and Deb Newberry (2003)
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Expect to See
• Materials as strong as diamonds and lighter than aluminum
• Composites that act as heat conductors, shields from radiation, provides wireless communication and converts heat into electricity
• Nanosensors and energy sources to make materials self repairing (cars, bridges, buildings, clothes)
• Solar collecting materials that can be “painted on” to collect, store and apply energy (room light cell phones, buildings, wearable computer)
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Elements of Strategy
Energy Electronics Medicine
Early stage Development
Infrastructure
Federal Funding
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Price per Megabyte
1988 $ 11.00 per Megabyte
Today $ 0.01 per Megabyte
IBM Millipede (2 years)
$ 0.00001 per Megabyte
Nantero/Zettacore (4 years)
$ 0.00000001 per Megabyte
Hewlett Packard (6 years)
$ 0.00000000001 per Megabyte
Source: Jack Uldrich, “The Next Big Thing is Really Small”
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
High Performance Computing (HPC)
• Gigaflop – One Billion Floating Point Operations per Second
• Teraflop – One Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second
• Petaflop- One Thousand Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
HPC and Next Generation Biology
• Simulating 100 microseconds of protein folding could take 1025 machine instructions
• This computation would take three years on a PetaFLOP system or
• Keep a 3.2GHz microprocessor busy for the next million centuries.
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
• Simulating the activity of a single protein, taking into account each atom in the protein,
• Would take months using a PetaFLOPS-class computer
HPC and Next Generation Biology
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
0 2
9 28
Computing SynergyPossibility for creating N(2(N-1)-1) value
Copyright SRI International 2002
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Media Bandwidth
DSL/ Cable
IEEE 1394 / Firewire
Gigabit Ethernet
LASER / Fast Ethernet
10BaseT/CAT 5 Ethernet
Microwave
G2 Wireless
G3 / Wireless LAN
Async. Trans. Mode (ATM)
G1 Wireless
10Gig Ethernet
Vo
ice In
tern
et A
cces
s
Gam
ing
Fil
e sh
arin
g
Dig
ital
Mu
sic
NT
SC
Vid
eo
VH
S V
ideo M
PE
G V
ideo
DV
Vid
eo
HD
TV
Vid
eo
10^11
10^10
10^9
10^8
10^7
10^6
10^5
10^4
Ban
dw
idth
Req
uir
edB
its/
sec
(bp
s)
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Copyright SRI International 2002
Exponential EconomyAn increasing attribute of our knowledge age
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Nanotechnology Role in the Future
Source: Neville I. Marzwell, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
Future Needs
Source: Neville I. Marzwell, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
High Impact Application• • Advanced Materials• – High strength-to-weight composites for vehicle primary structures and habitats• – Hydrogen resistant nanostructured materials for cryotanks• – High thermal conductivity materials for heat sinks, heat pipes, and radiators• – High temperature materials for propulsion systems and thermal protection systems• – High electrical conductivity materials for wiring• – Self-healing materials for repairing impact damage and wire insulation• – Space-durable materials resistant to ultraviolet and particle radiation• – Self-assembling materials for in-space fabrication• • Power• – High energy density batteries and fuel cells• – High efficiency photovoltaic cells• • Sensing• – Bio-chemical sensors for monitoring environmental contaminants in crew habitats• – Bio-chemical sensors for detecting the signatures of life on other planets• – Chemical systems for identifying, processing, and utilizing planetary resources• • Integral Health Management• – Systems that incorporate integral sensors and processors for fault detection and diagnosis• • High Performance Computing• – Fault-tolerant reconfigurable processors, micro-controllers, and storage devices• • Extreme Environment Electronics• – Microelectronic devices that can operate reliably in extreme temperature and radiation environments
Source: Neville I. Marzwell, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA
High Performance Grid Computing